美國家庭壽險 (AFL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the Aflac Incorporated First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 Aflac Incorporated 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Young, Vice President of Investor and Ratings Agency Relations and ESG. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者和評級機構關係和 ESG 副總裁 David Young。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea. Good morning, and welcome. This morning, we will be hearing remarks about the quarter related to our operations in Japan and the United States from Dan Amos, Chairman and CEO of Aflac Incorporated. Fred Crawford, President and COO of Aflac Incorporated, is joining us from Japan and will touch briefly on conditions in the quarter and discuss key initiatives. And Brad Dyslin, Global Chief Investment Officer, President of Aflac Global Investments, will discuss the investment portfolio and its positioning given recent market events and volatility.

謝謝你，安德里亞。早上好，歡迎。今天上午，我們將聽取 Aflac Incorporated 董事長兼首席執行官丹·阿莫斯 (Dan Amos) 關於本季度與我們在日本和美國的業務相關的評論。 Aflac Incorporated 總裁兼首席運營官弗雷德克勞福德將從日本加入我們，他將簡要介紹本季度的情況並討論關鍵舉措。 Aflac Global Investments 全球首席投資官兼總裁 Brad Dyslin 將根據近期市場事件和波動性討論投資組合及其定位。

Yesterday, after the close, we posted our earnings release and financial supplement to investors.aflac.com. Under Financials, in the menu of that site, we also posted several slides of investment details related to our bank, commercial real estate and middle market loan exposure. In addition, Max Broden, Executive Vice President and CFO of Aflac Incorporated, provided his quarterly video update addressing our financial results and current capital and liquidity.

昨天收盤後，我們向 investors.aflac.com 發布了我們的收益發布和財務補充。在 Financials 下，在該站點的菜單中，我們還發布了幾張與我們的銀行、商業房地產和中間市場貸款敞口相關的投資詳細信息幻燈片。此外，Aflac Incorporated 執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Max Broden 提供了他的季度視頻更新，介紹了我們的財務業績以及當前資本和流動性。

Max will be joining us for the Q&A segment of this call, along with the following members of our executive management in the U.S., the following: Virgil Miller, President of Aflac U.S.; Al Riggieri, Global Chief Risk Officer and Chief Actuary; June Howard, Chief Accounting Officer; and Steve Beaver, CFO of Aflac U.S.

Max 將與我們在美國的執行管理層的以下成員一起參加本次電話會議的問答環節：Aflac 美國總裁 Virgil Miller； Al Riggieri，全球首席風險官兼首席精算師； June Howard，首席會計官； Steve Beaver，美國 Aflac 的首席財務官

We are also joined by members of our executive management team at Aflac Life Insurance Japan: Charles Lake, Chairman and Representative Director, President of Aflac International; Masatoshi Koide, President and Representative Director; Todd Daniels, Director and CFO; Koichiro Yoshizumi, Executive Vice President and Director of Sales and Marketing and Alliance Strategy.

Aflac Life Insurance Japan 的執行管理團隊成員也加入了我們的行列：Aflac International 董事長兼代表董事兼總裁 Charles Lake；總裁兼代表董事 Masatoshi Koide； Todd Daniels，董事兼首席財務官； Koichiro Yoshizumi，執行副總裁兼銷售和營銷及聯盟戰略總監。

Before we begin, some statements in this teleconference are forward-looking within the meaning of federal securities laws. Although we believe these statements are reasonable, we can give no assurance that they will prove to be accurate because they are prospective in nature. Actual results could differ materially from what we discuss today. We encourage you to look at our annual report on Form 10-K for some of the various risk factors that could materially impact our results.

在我們開始之前，本次電話會議中的一些陳述是聯邦證券法意義上的前瞻性陳述。儘管我們相信這些陳述是合理的，但我們不能保證它們將被證明是準確的，因為它們本質上是前瞻性的。實際結果可能與我們今天討論的內容大不相同。我們鼓勵您查看我們關於 10-K 表格的年度報告，了解可能對我們的結果產生重大影響的各種風險因素。

As I mentioned earlier, the earnings release is available on investors.aflac.com and includes reconciliations of certain non-U.S. GAAP measures.

正如我之前提到的，收益發布可在 investors.aflac.com 上獲得，其中包括某些非美國 GAAP 指標的調節。

I'll now hand the call over to Dan. Dan?

我現在將電話轉給 Dan。擔？

Thank you, David. Good morning. We're glad you joined us.

謝謝你，大衛。早上好。我們很高興你加入我們。

Reflecting on the first quarter of 2023, our management team, employees and sales distribution have continued to be devoted stewards of our business, being there for the policyholders when they need us most, just as we promised.

回顧 2023 年第一季度，我們的管理團隊、員工和銷售分佈繼續盡職盡責地管理我們的業務，正如我們所承諾的那樣，在保單持有人最需要我們的時候為他們服務。

The first quarter marked a good start to the year. Aflac delivered another quarter of solid earnings results, especially considering a material weakening of the yen.

第一季度標誌著今年的良好開端。 Aflac 又發布了一個季度穩健的盈利結果，尤其是考慮到日元的大幅走軟。

Looking at our operations in Japan and as noted last quarter, we are actively focused on numerous initiatives in Japan, involving new and refreshed products and distribution that continues to cover from the -- as we recover from the pandemic. In addition, we are encouraged by the planned May reclassification of COVID-19 to the same level as influenza as Japan continues to emerge from the pandemic.

看看我們在日本的業務，正如上個季度所指出的那樣，我們積極關注日本的眾多舉措，涉及新的和更新的產品以及分銷，這些舉措將繼續覆蓋——隨著我們從大流行中恢復過來。此外，隨著日本繼續從大流行中走出來，計劃於 5 月將 COVID-19 重新分類為與流感相同的級別，這讓我們感到鼓舞。

I am pleased with the continued sales improvements, which reflect the ongoing rollout of our cancer insurance policy, initially through associates and Daido Life, followed by Dai-ichi Life and the financial institutions.

我對銷售的持續改善感到滿意，這反映了我們正在推出癌症保險政策，最初是通過聯營公司和大同人壽，隨後是第一生命人壽和金融機構。

First quarter sales also reflected the refreshed first sector WAYS and Child Endowment products which we're using as a way of reaching new customers to whom we can also sell third-sector products, including cancer and medical products.

第一季度的銷售額還反映了更新後的第一部門 WAYS 和 Child Endowment 產品，我們正在使用這些產品來接觸新客戶，我們也可以向這些客戶銷售第三部門產品，包括癌症和醫療產品。

I am also encouraged by the fact that Japan Post Group began selling our new cancer insurance product earlier this month. We expect this close collaboration to produce continued gradual improvement of Aflac cancer insurance sales over the immediate term and to further position the companies for the long term.

日本郵政集團本月早些時候開始銷售我們的新癌症保險產品，這也讓我感到鼓舞。我們預計這種密切合作將在短期內持續逐步改善 Aflac 癌症保險的銷售，並進一步鞏固公司的長期地位。

In addition to product, another important element of our growth strategy is our intense focus on being where the customer wants to buy insurance. Our broad network of distribution channels, including agencies, alliance partners and banks continually optimize opportunities to help provide financial protection to Japanese consumers, and we are working hard to support each channel.

除了產品之外，我們增長戰略的另一個重要因素是我們高度關注成為客戶想要購買保險的地方。我們廣泛的分銷渠道網絡，包括代理機構、聯盟合作夥伴和銀行，不斷優化機會，幫助為日本消費者提供財務保護，我們正在努力支持每個渠道。

Turning to the U.S. While the first quarter tends to generate the lowest sales of the year, I'm encouraged by the continued improvement in the productivity of our agents and brokers as well as the contribution from the build-out of our network dental and vision and group life and disability. We are seeing success in our efforts to reengage veteran associates, and, at the same time, we are seeing strong growth through brokers.

談到美國，雖然第一季度的銷售額往往是今年最低的，但我對我們的代理人和經紀人生產力的持續提高以及我們網絡牙科和視力建設的貢獻感到鼓舞以及團體生活和殘疾。我們在重新聘用資深員工方面取得了成功，與此同時，我們通過經紀人看到了強勁的增長。

I'm very excited that we're in the process of refreshing our cancer protection assurance policy with increased benefits at no additional cost. We believe this will increase persistency, which will benefit our policyholders and lower our expenses.

我很高興我們正在更新我們的癌症保護保證政策，增加福利而無需額外費用。我們相信這將增加持久性，這將使我們的保單持有人受益並降低我們的費用。

I believe that the need for the products we offer is strong or stronger than it has ever been before in both Japan and the United States. At the same time, we know consumer habits, buying preferences have been evolving. We also know that our products are sold, not bought. As we communicate the value of our products, we know that a strong brand alone is not enough. We must paint a better picture of how our products help address the gap that people face when they get medical treatment. We continue to reinforce our leading position and build on that momentum. As always, we continue to prudent liquidity and capital management.

我相信日本和美國對我們提供的產品的需求比以往任何時候都強烈或強烈。同時，我們知道消費者的習慣、購買偏好一直在演變。我們也知道我們的產品是出售的，而不是購買的。在傳達我們產品的價值時，我們知道僅靠強大的品牌是不夠的。我們必須更好地描繪我們的產品如何幫助解決人們在接受治療時面臨的差距。我們繼續鞏固我們的領先地位，並在此勢頭的基礎上再接再厲。一如既往，我們繼續審慎的流動性和資本管理。

We continue to generate strong investment results while remaining in a defensive position as we monitor evolving economic conditions. In addition, we've taken proactive steps in recent years to defend cash flows and deployable capital against the weakening yen.

我們繼續取得強勁的投資業績，同時在監測不斷變化的經濟狀況時保持防禦地位。此外，我們近年來採取了積極措施來保護現金流和可動用資本免受日元貶值的影響。

We treasure our track record of dividend growth highlighted by 2022 marking the 40th consecutive year of dividend increases. We remain committed to extending this track record, supported by the strength of the capital and cash flows. At the same time, we remain in the market repurchasing shares with tactical approach focused on integrating the growth investments we've made in the platform to improve our strength and leadership position.

我們珍惜到 2022 年連續第 40 年增加股息的股息增長記錄。在資本和現金流強勁的支持下，我們仍然致力於延續這一業績記錄。與此同時，我們繼續在市場上回購股票，戰術方法專注於整合我們在平台上所做的增長投資，以提高我們的實力和領導地位。

We also believe in the underlying strength of our business and our potential for continued growth in the United States and Japan, 2 of the largest life insurance markets in the world.

我們還相信我們業務的潛在實力以及我們在美國和日本這兩個世界上最大的人壽保險市場的持續增長潛力。

We are well positioned as we work toward achieving long-term growth while also ensuring we deliver on our promise to the policyholders. I'm proud of what we've accomplished in terms of both our social purpose and financial results which have ultimately translated into strong, long-term shareholder return.

我們處於有利地位，因為我們致力於實現長期增長，同時確保我們兌現對保單持有人的承諾。我為我們在社會目標和財務業績方面所取得的成就感到自豪，這些成就最終轉化為強大的長期股東回報。

Now I'll turn the program over to Fred in Japan. Fred?

現在我將把程序交給日本的弗雷德。弗雷德？

Thank you, Dan. Let me first begin with brief comments on our Japan and U.S. operations. As Dan noted, we're off to a promising start. The revised cancer product is doing well and now supported by our [ureso] cancer consultation platform, this providing concierge care to cancer policyholders and connecting them with noninsurance services.

謝謝你，丹。首先讓我簡要介紹一下我們在日本和美國的業務。正如 Dan 指出的那樣，我們有了一個充滿希望的開端。修訂後的癌症產品表現良好，現在得到我們 [ureso] 癌症諮詢平台的支持，為癌症保單持有人提供禮賓服務，並將他們與非保險服務聯繫起來。

As we look ahead this year, we are focused on the following here in Japan: Continued recovery with our long-standing alliance partners fueled by a refreshed cancer product and joint marketing and training support. Based on our preliminary read of activity levels within Japan Post, the Wings product appears to be off to a promising start and gaining traction.

展望今年，我們在日本專注於以下方面：在更新的抗癌產品以及聯合營銷和培訓支持的推動下，與我們的長期合作夥伴一起持續復甦。根據我們對日本郵政內部活動水平的初步了解，Wings 產品似乎開了個好頭並獲得了關注。

We are preparing to launch a new medical product in the fourth quarter. We are operating in a highly competitive environment with medical product representing 70% of the third sector marketplace. We are focused on simplifying the product and appealing to both younger policyholders with day needs and older or existing policyholders who desire upgrading to a more comprehensive coverage.

我們準備在第四季度推出一種新的醫療產品。我們在競爭激烈的環境中運營，醫療產品佔第三部門市場的 70%。我們專注於簡化產品並吸引有日常需求的年輕保單持有人以及希望升級到更全面覆蓋範圍的年長或現有保單持有人。

The sale of WAYS is delivering on our strategy of attracting younger policyholders and cross-sell activity. We are primarily selling in our associates channel and are beginning -- are being cautious with respect to selling in the bank channel, with limited volume expected. We understand that over the long term, leveraging the bank channel will require marrying a competitive medical and cancer product with a formal asset formation strategy to drive shelf space.

出售 WAYS 正在實現我們吸引年輕投保人和交叉銷售活動的戰略。我們主要在我們的聯營渠道銷售並且開始 - 對銀行渠道的銷售持謹慎態度，預計數量有限。我們明白，從長遠來看，利用銀行渠道需要將具有競爭力的醫療和癌症產品與正式的資產形成戰略相結合，以擴大貨架空間。

Finally, our short-term insurance subsidiary SUDACHI launched a line of affordable term medical and cancer product in April. We anticipate a modest level of sales as measured annualized premium. The focus is on introducing young, first-time buyers to the importance of medical and cancer insurance to then upgrade to more comprehensive coverage in the future.

最後，我們的短期保險子公司 SUDACHI 於 4 月推出了一系列負擔得起的定期醫療和癌症產品。我們預計以年化保費衡量的銷售額將處於適度水平。重點是向年輕的首次購買者介紹醫療和癌症保險的重要性，以便在未來升級到更全面的保險。

From an operations perspective, we are pleased with our expense ratio coming in below 20% in the face of continued revenue pressure. This is in part a cumulative result of addressing expenses over the past few years.

從運營的角度來看，面對持續的收入壓力，我們很高興我們的費用率低於 20%。這在一定程度上是過去幾年解決費用問題的累積結果。

Turning to the U.S. We have discussed our balanced attack, and this remains the case, with individual dental and vision, group life and disability and consumer markets all contributing to sales growth in the quarter. The underlying signs of momentum remain encouraging, and our agent-driven small business franchise recruiting the number of average weekly producers and agent productivity are all up in the quarter.

談到美國，我們已經討論了我們的平衡攻擊，情況仍然如此，個人牙科和視力、團體人壽和殘疾以及消費市場都為本季度的銷售增長做出了貢獻。勢頭的潛在跡象仍然令人鼓舞，我們的代理人驅動的小型企業特許經營招募平均每週生產者的數量和代理人的生產力在本季度都有所提高。

Dental and vision sales increased 40% in the quarter with continued strength in cross-sell of core voluntary products. While this is traditionally a slower quarter in the life and disability markets, our platform is off to a strong start for the year.

由於核心自願產品的交叉銷售持續強勁，本季度牙科和視力銷售額增長了 40%。雖然這通常是壽險和傷殘市場的一個較慢季度，但我們的平台今年開局良好。

Finally, we are encouraged by consumer market sales, up 29% in the quarter and with new products gaining traction and alliances coming online.

最後，我們對消費市場銷售額感到鼓舞，本季度增長了 29%，新產品越來越受歡迎，聯盟也上線了。

With expanded business lines and new distribution channels, product development is a key focus in the U.S. We have launched a refreshed approach to cancer, as Dan mentioned. We've advanced coverage for mental health conditions and are adding noninsurance services to our group disability products. We are proactively driving benefit utilization through wellness campaigns and benefit endorsements to in-force policies. We know that utilization drives persistency.

隨著業務線的擴展和新的分銷渠道的發展，產品開發成為美國的重點。正如 Dan 提到的，我們已經推出了一種全新的癌症治療方法。我們提高了對精神健康狀況的承保範圍，並在我們的團體殘疾產品中增加了非保險服務。我們通過健康活動和對生效政策的福利背書積極推動福利利用。我們知道利用率會推動持久性。

In terms of operations, our expense ratio remains elevated, but as Max commented on in his recorded remarks, roughly 300 basis points are due to the pace of investment in emerging growth businesses all performing in line with our expectations.

在運營方面，我們的費用率仍然很高，但正如 Max 在他的記錄中評論的那樣，大約 300 個基點是由於對新興增長業務的投資步伐都符合我們的預期。

So what bends the expense curve in the U.S.? Traditional managing of expenses, along with investment in process automation in our mature individual and career-driven small business franchise; a multiyear technology modernization path, including a new group administrative platform driving process improvement and cost reduction; finally, delivering on revenue build in our acquired and greenfielded properties that requires investment upfront to secure and retain quality business.

那麼，是什麼使美國的費用曲線發生彎曲呢？傳統的費用管理，以及在我們成熟的個人和職業驅動的小型企業特許經營中對流程自動化的投資；多年的技術現代化路徑，包括推動流程改進和成本降低的新集團管理平台；最後，在我們收購的和未開發的物業中實現收入增長，這需要預先投資以確保和保留優質業務。

Now I'd like to hand over to Brad Dyslin to discuss our investment portfolio and positioning with respect to recent market events and volatility. Brad?

現在，我想請布拉德·戴斯林 (Brad Dyslin) 討論我們針對近期市場事件和波動的投資組合和定位。布拉德？

Thank you, Fred. Given recent events with the global banking system and the uncertain macro-outlook as the Fed continues to raise rates to fight inflation, I would like to provide a brief update on those segments of our portfolio that are most directly impacted by the current environment.

謝謝你，弗雷德。鑑於全球銀行系統最近發生的事件以及美聯儲繼續加息以抗擊通脹導致宏觀前景不確定，我想簡要介紹一下我們投資組合中受當前環境影響最直接的部分。

Let me start with our bank exposure. As of the end of the quarter, our total global bank portfolio is $5.6 billion with an average credit rating of A minus. Our holdings are concentrated in large, systemically important banks located in stable countries.

讓我從我們的銀行敞口開始。截至本季度末，我們的全球銀行投資組合總額為 56 億美元，平均信用評級為 A-。我們的持股集中在位於穩定國家的具有系統重要性的大型銀行。

As of today, our U.S. bank exposure is limited to the largest banks. We have virtually no exposure to smaller U.S. regional banks. We do not have holdings or other direct exposure to any of the 3 U.S. banks that failed in early March. While the swift and decisive action of regulators has helped to cull markets, we are watching very closely for signs of further instability in the global banking system and feel good about our holdings.

截至今天，我們對美國銀行的敞口僅限於最大的銀行。我們幾乎沒有接觸過較小的美國地區性銀行。我們對 3 月初倒閉的 3 家美國銀行中的任何一家都沒有持股或其他直接敞口。雖然監管機構迅速而果斷的行動有助於抑制市場，但我們正在密切關注全球銀行體系進一步不穩定的跡象，並對我們的持股感到滿意。

Like the rest of the industry, we are seeing pressure in the commercial real estate markets. Office properties are the current area of focus given the difficult market for office leasing. Office represents approximately 30% of our total $8.1 billion commercial mortgage loan portfolio, with most of our exposure in our transitional real estate book. We currently expect approximately $500 million of loans to enter into some form of foreclosure, approximately 6% of our total mortgage holdings.

與其他行業一樣，我們看到了商業房地產市場的壓力。鑑於寫字樓租賃市場困難重重，寫字樓物業是當前的重點領域。寫字樓約占我們 81 億美元商業抵押貸款組合總額的 30%，其中大部分風險敞口在我們的過渡性房地產賬簿中。我們目前預計將有大約 5 億美元的貸款進入某種形式的止贖，約占我們總抵押貸款持有量的 6%。

When going into foreclosure, we revalue the property to current market levels. In those cases where we do not yet have an independent third-party appraisal, as an interim step, we established an updated value based on our current -- based on our external managers' current assumptions of the local market and updated cap rates. This process resulted in a small $10 million of additional asset reserves this quarter.

當進入喪失抵押品贖回權時，我們將財產重估為當前市場水平。在我們還沒有獨立第三方評估的情況下，作為臨時步驟，我們根據我們的當前——基於我們的外部經理對當地市場的當前假設和更新的資本化率——建立了一個更新的價值。這一過程在本季度產生了 1000 萬美元的額外資產儲備。

To offer perspective of our potential loss exposure, we have approximately $900 million of TRE loans currently on our watch list. At the time of origination, these loans were 65% loan to value. If you apply a simple stress scenario that assumes we foreclose on the entire amount and each property declines 50% in value, a drop which would exceed what we saw during the financial crisis by about 15 percentage points, we would have to establish approximately $200 million of reserves.

為了提供我們潛在損失風險的觀點，我們目前在觀察名單上有大約 9 億美元的 TRE 貸款。在發起時，這些貸款是貸款價值的 65%。如果你應用一個簡單的壓力場景，假設我們取消全部金額並且每處房產的價值下降 50%，降幅將超過我們在金融危機期間看到的大約 15 個百分點，我們將不得不建立大約 2 億美元的儲備。

To be clear, this is not our base case, but it highlights that our exposure under such a severe downturn in the office segment is manageable. Although accounting rules may require additional reserves, our strong capital and liquidity position will allow us to hold these properties to maximize our recovery.

需要明確的是，這不是我們的基本情況，但它突顯出我們在辦公部門如此嚴重低迷的情況下的風險是可控的。儘管會計規則可能需要額外的準備金，但我們強大的資本和流動性狀況將使我們能夠持有這些財產以最大限度地恢復。

Turning to our middle market loan portfolio. Despite the headwinds from rates and inflation, this portfolio continues to perform quite well. Our borrowers' average leverage is stable. They have largely been successful passing through higher costs and sponsors have generally been supportive whenever required.

轉向我們的中間市場貸款組合。儘管受到利率和通貨膨脹的不利影響，該投資組合仍然表現良好。我們藉款人的平均槓桿是穩定的。他們在很大程度上成功地克服了更高的成本，贊助商通常在需要時提供支持。

This quarter, we did take reserves of $20 million related to 2 names that were struggling with issues unique to them and not reflective of broader systemic issues in the asset class.

本季度，我們確實提取了 2000 萬美元的儲備金，涉及 2 個名字，這些名字正在努力解決他們特有的問題，並且沒有反映資產類別中更廣泛的系統性問題。

As the primary outlet for our below investment-grade exposure, we very deliberately built this portfolio with a strong focus on managing through the inevitable downturns in the credit cycle. Our average loan size is a very modest $16 million. We only invest in senior secured first lien positions. We utilize strict limits on position size, diversification and other characteristics. Should conditions worsen, we believe this approach will serve us well.

作為我們低於投資級別敞口的主要出路，我們非常有意地建立了這個投資組合，重點放在管理信貸週期中不可避免的衰退上。我們的平均貸款規模是非常適中的 1600 萬美元。我們只投資於有優先擔保的優先留置權。我們對頭寸規模、多元化和其他特徵進行嚴格限制。如果情況惡化，我們相信這種方法將對我們有好處。

We expect market volatility to remain elevated as the global economy absorbs the impact of higher interest rates. We will, of course, experience the impact of this volatility across our portfolio, namely in our alternatives holdings.

我們預計，隨著全球經濟消化更高利率的影響，市場波動將繼續加劇。當然，我們將在我們的投資組合中體驗這種波動的影響，即在我們的替代品持有中。

Relative to many in the industry, our exposure is rather modest, but we expect our $2.4 billion portfolio to experience volatile marks in the near term. We remain committed to our disciplined systemic approach to building this portfolio and fully expect to enjoy the benefits of enhanced returns over time.

相對於許多業內人士，我們的風險敞口相當小，但我們預計我們 24 億美元的投資組合在短期內會出現波動。我們仍然致力於採用我們嚴格的系統方法來構建這個投資組合，並完全期望隨著時間的推移享受更高回報的好處。

Let me turn it back to Fred.

讓我把它轉回弗雷德。

Thanks, Brad. Let me just give some additional perspective before we go to Q&A, and that is connecting Brad's comments to capital. Our low asset leverage, which we define as the ratio of assets to statutory capital, particularly when you consider our natural concentration in JGBs places us in a strong position to absorb weak economic conditions.

謝謝，布拉德。在我們進行問答之前，讓我再提供一些額外的觀點，那就是將布拉德的評論與資本聯繫起來。我們的低資產槓桿率（我們將其定義為資產與法定資本的比率）尤其是當您考慮到我們在日本國債中的自然集中度時，這使我們處於應對疲軟經濟狀況的強勢地位。

We watch SMR in Japan as historically it is more volatile during periods of economic stress. However, our SMR, as you can see, remains very strong. We are also comforted by a stable ESR ratio that like our U.S. statutory RBC is robust and more resilient to market volatility.

我們關注日本的 SMR，因為從歷史上看，它在經濟壓力時期波動更大。但是，如您所見，我們的 SMR 仍然非常強大。我們還對穩定的 ESR 比率感到欣慰，就像我們的美國法定 RBC 一樣穩健且對市場波動更有彈性。

The punchline is we do not see the events of the last quarter and/or mild to medium recession causing disruption to our capital deployment plans. So with that, let me hand back to David, who will take us to Q&A. David?

重點是我們沒有看到上一季度的事件和/或輕度至中度衰退導致我們的資本部署計劃中斷。因此，讓我交還給大衛，他將帶我們進行問答。大衛？

Thank you, Fred. Now we are ready to take your questions. (Operator Instructions) Andrea, we'll now take the first question. And if you want to let people know how to get back in the queue, that would be great.

謝謝你，弗雷德。現在我們準備好回答您的問題了。 （操作員說明）安德里亞，我們現在來回答第一個問題。如果你想讓人們知道如何回到隊列中，那就太好了。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Wes Carmichael of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Wes Carmichael。

In Japan Post, you talked about the revised cancer product doing well. But how are you kind of seeing the sales trajectory play out in the second quarter and through the balance of the year? Should we see it kind of accelerate in the near term? Or will that take some time to play out?

在日本郵政，您談到了修訂後的抗癌產品表現良好。但是，您如何看待第二季度和全年的銷售軌跡？我們應該看到它在短期內加速嗎？還是需要一些時間才能發揮作用？

Sure. Let me -- this is Fred. Let me do this. Let's go to Koide-san to comment on Japan Post and Yoshizumi-san can follow up with any color from his perspective. Koide?

當然。讓我——這是弗雷德。讓我做這個。去小出老師評論日本郵政吧，吉泉老師可以從他的角度跟進任何顏色。小出？

[Interpreted] This is Koide of Japan. Regarding the Japan Post Group, our new cancer Wings have been launched in April this year and we believe that the start of the sales has been very successful because we have been preparing to launch this product towards April by doing a lot of preparation as well as training. Yoshizumi-san, if you like to add anything, please do so.

[解讀]這是日本的小出。關於日本郵政集團，我們的新 cancer Wings 已於今年 4 月推出，我們相信銷售的開始非常成功，因為我們一直在準備在 4 月推出該產品，並做了很多準備工作以及訓練。 Yoshizumi 先生，如果您想添加任何內容，請添加。

[Interpreted] Thank you. This Yoshizumi of Aflac Japan. To launch this product in April, we have been thoroughly preparing for the launch. We are seeing the start of the sale of new product is very good and it is gradually growing, and it is meeting our expectation. However, having said that, because this product has just been launched, it would probably be a bit too early to say whether this is truly successful or not, but this is a product that we have launched this year as a cancer new product.

[翻譯] 謝謝。這位 Aflac Japan 的 Yoshizumi。為了在四月份推出這款產品，我們一直在為上市做充分的準備。我們看到新產品的銷售開始非常好，並且正在逐漸增長，符合我們的預期。不過話雖如此，因為這個產品剛剛推出，現在說這是否真的成功可能還為時過早，但這是我們今年推出的抗癌新產品。

And I do believe that we have been able to get started with a very good new product process because we have been training since January and we have also introduced digital means. So we do believe that this product can be successful. At the same time, this can be a trigger to even more success.

而且我確實相信我們已經能夠開始一個非常好的新產品流程，因為我們從一月份開始就一直在接受培訓，並且我們還引入了數字手段。所以我們相信這個產品可以成功。同時，這可能會觸發更大的成功。

So let me just repeat this again. Our start of the sale of this product has been very successful, and that can be proved by the number of calls that we are receiving at the call center and also the number of illustration estimates that we are providing to customers. And that's all for me. Thank you very much.

所以讓我再重複一遍。我們開始銷售該產品非常成功，這可以從我們在呼叫中心接到的電話數量以及我們向客戶提供的插圖估算數量來證明。這就是我的全部。非常感謝。

Thank you, Yoshizumi. And again, I would say we have been rolling this cancer product out gradually across channels, which is different than we've done in the past. And so it started in our associates channel, but then it's spread on to other affiliate channels, Daido Life, Dai-ichi and the financial institutions. And so we've seen this product roll out or roll out successfully, and we know it's considered one of the ranked products in the country in terms of the attractiveness of the product. So we do come at it with a level of confidence, but as Yoshizumi-san said, it's still early in their system.

謝謝你，吉泉。再一次，我想說我們一直在跨渠道逐步推出這種抗癌產品，這與我們過去所做的不同。所以它從我們的聯營渠道開始，但隨後傳播到其他附屬渠道、Daido Life、Dai-ichi 和金融機構。因此，我們已經看到該產品推出或成功推出，我們知道就產品吸引力而言，它被認為是該國排名最高的產品之一。所以我們確實帶著一定的信心來實現它，但正如 Yoshizumi-san 所說，這在他們的系統中還處於早期階段。

That's helpful. And on capital, the capital ratios are pretty strong with RBC north of 600 and SMR 850-plus and holdco capital is strong at $3.3 billion. But how do we think about the outlook for dividends or distributions out of the insurance companies this year? And I think you had proceeds from the reinsurance transaction, but it seems like there may be a lot of capital coming. So any help you can give us there?

這很有幫助。在資本方面，資本比率相當強勁，RBC 高於 600，SMR 高於 850，控股公司資本高達 33 億美元。但我們如何看待今年保險公司的股息或分配前景？而且我認為您從再保險交易中獲得了收益，但似乎可能會有很多資金湧入。那麼你能在那裡給我們任何幫助嗎？

So I would start by go back to our Investor Day where we announced that on an underlying basis, we expect to generate $2.6 billion to $3 billion of capital each year. And that's a reasonable starting point.

所以我首先要回到我們的投資者日，我們宣佈在基礎上，我們預計每年會產生 26 億至 30 億美元的資本。這是一個合理的起點。

And on top of that, we will periodically generate additional capital through different actions that we take, reinsurance being one of those actions. And we would use that capital pool to then obviously redeploy that capital generated in conjunction with any additional capital that we may be freeing up from having high capital ratios in our operating subsidiaries or at the holding company.

最重要的是，我們將通過我們採取的不同行動定期產生額外的資本，再保險就是這些行動之一。然後，我們將使用該資本池顯然重新部署產生的資本以及我們可能從運營子公司或控股公司的高資本比率中釋放出來的任何額外資本。

But I do think that over time, as a run rate base, you should think about the $2.6 billion to $3 billion, that's a reasonable annual capital deployment for us, with periodic additional capital deployments from other actions taken. And as you know, that goes through our capital management policy, where we allocate capital, obviously, to the dividend. Currently, that is about $1 billion that we spend on our dividend each year, and we cherish our dividend highly and expect to continue to increase the dividend.

但我確實認為，隨著時間的推移，作為運行率基礎，你應該考慮 26 億至 30 億美元，這對我們來說是合理的年度資本配置，並定期從採取的其他行動中進行額外的資本配置。正如你所知，這貫穿於我們的資本管理政策，我們顯然將資本分配給股息。目前，我們每年花在股息上的費用約為 10 億美元，我們非常珍惜我們的股息，並期望繼續增加股息。

On top of that, we are then allocating capital to buybacks where we see appropriate IRRs and also for opportunistic deployment where we can accelerate our growth long term.

最重要的是，我們隨後將資金分配給我們認為合適的內部收益率的回購，以及我們可以加速長期增長的機會主義部署。

The next question comes from Suneet Kamath of Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Suneet Kamath。

Just a bigger-picture question for Japan. Obviously, you've had a lot of success there with the cancer block for years, but it sounds like you're losing market share in medical. If you look at the benefits, there's definitely some overlap in terms of hospitalization and surgical benefit. So I guess my question is, is there a risk that people will just start using medical insurance to sort of cover their cancer exposure. And as a consequence, the cancer insurance market will just continually shrink.

對日本來說只是一個更大的問題。很明顯，多年來你們在抗癌領域取得了很大成功，但聽起來你們正在失去醫療市場份額。如果你看一下好處，在住院和手術方面肯定有一些重疊。所以我想我的問題是，人們是否會開始使用醫療保險來支付他們的癌症暴露風險。結果，癌症保險市場將不斷萎縮。

We're going to go to Koide-san and Yoshizumi-san to help you out with that, Suneet.

Suneet，我們將去找 Koide-san 和 Yoshizumi-san 幫你解決這個問題。

[Interpreted] So let me start, this is Aflac Japan Koide. Cancer is an illness that is different from other diseases. For example, it would require long-term treatment as well as some mental support or treatment required. Therefore, when you try to prepare for cancer, you would definitely be needing cancer protection type of policy. And the awareness regarding cancer is becoming very high in cancer. The reason is because 1 in 2 in Japan does suffer from cancer in their lifetime.

[翻譯] 那麼讓我開始吧，這裡是 Aflac Japan Koide。癌症是一種不同於其他疾病的疾病。例如，它需要長期治療以及需要一些精神支持或治療。因此，當您嘗試為癌症做準備時，您肯定需要癌症保障類型的保單。對癌症的認識在癌症中變得非常高。原因是日本有二分之一的人一生中確實患有癌症。

And looking at the penetration or enrollment of cancer insurance, the cancer insurance penetration is lower than that of medical insurance. Therefore, we do see that there is a bigger potential in cancer insurance sales going forward.

而從癌症險的滲透率或投保率來看，癌症險的滲透率低於醫療險。因此，我們確實看到未來癌症保險銷售有更大的潛力。

So the conclusion here is that it is not that there is no need for cancer insurance just because you have medical insurance.

所以這裡的結論是，並不是說有醫療保險就不需要癌症保險。

One of the things I would also add is that I had mentioned in my comments, our uresocancer care consulting practice, which is really wrapping noninsurance services around our cancer policies for our policyholders, and that's gotten off to a good start and is building.

我還要補充的一件事是，我在評論中提到了我們的 uresocancer 護理諮詢實踐，它實際上是為我們的保單持有人圍繞我們的癌症保單提供非保險服務，這已經有了一個良好的開端並且正在建設中。

And I mentioned that only because one of the things we do have to do, Suneet, is continue to differentiate and protect our leadership position. And we differentiate the overall value proposition of a cancer product not just from the enhanced coverage advanced treatments, advanced types of care, but we also wrap that policy with noninsurance services, and that really differentiates it from a traditional and often basic medical product sold to individuals.

我提到這只是因為我們必須做的事情之一，Suneet，就是繼續區分和保護我們的領導地位。我們不僅將癌症產品的整體價值主張與增強覆蓋的高級治療、高級護理類型區分開來，而且我們還將該保單與非保險服務相結合，這真正將其與銷售給客戶的傳統且通常是基本的醫療產品區分開來個人。

Got it. And then I guess one on transitional real estate and middle-market loans. If I just look at the book yields that you're disclosing and compare them to what we saw at FAB, I mean, I think they're up 175 to 200 basis points in 6 months. So I'm just curious, how have these borrowers essentially been able to pay what is a pretty sizable increase in interest payments? And kind of what's the outlook there?

知道了。然後我猜是關於過渡性房地產和中間市場貸款的。如果我只看一下你披露的賬面收益率，並將它們與我們在 FAB 看到的進行比較，我的意思是，我認為它們在 6 個月內上升了 175 到 200 個基點。所以我很好奇，這些借款人是如何基本上能夠支付相當可觀的利息支出增長的？那裡的前景如何？

Yes. Thank you. This is Brad. It's a very good question. A couple of things I'd say in response to that. On the transitional real estate book, most of those loans contain rate caps. So the sponsors are protected from the large increase in rates. In fact, our average rate cap is about 200 basis points below where SOFR is today. Now that benefits the borrower, we still get the benefit of the higher rate. They just get the offset through the rate cap and the hedging that they've put in place.

是的。謝謝。這是布拉德。這是一個很好的問題。對此我想說幾句。在過渡性房地產賬簿上，這些貸款中的大部分都包含利率上限。因此，贊助商可以免受利率大幅上漲的影響。事實上，我們的平均利率上限比目前的 SOFR 低約 200 個基點。既然借款人受益，我們仍然可以獲得更高利率的好處。他們只是通過利率上限和他們已經實施的對沖來獲得抵消。

On the middle market loan portfolio, there's a couple of things at play here. First, these are largely service-oriented companies, which means they generate a fair amount of free cash flow. Now that's less free cash when you have a higher cost structure. But these companies have also been part of a growth strategy for the underlying sponsors who own these. So they've continued to perform well. They're continuing to grow. Margins have been relatively stable. And while cash flow may be reduced, they are taking actions to mitigate that. And the overall thesis for most of these companies remains intact.

在中間市場貸款組合中，有幾件事在起作用。首先，這些主要是服務型公司，這意味著它們產生了大量的自由現金流。現在，當您擁有更高的成本結構時，自由現金就會減少。但這些公司也是擁有這些公司的潛在讚助商的增長戰略的一部分。所以他們繼續表現良好。他們在繼續成長。利潤率一直相對穩定。雖然現金流可能會減少，但他們正在採取行動來緩解這種情況。大多數這些公司的總體論點保持不變。

This is Dan. I want to go back to one -- the question about the cancer insurance. Sorry took me a second to get my connection here. But we've got an aging society in Japan, cancer is a disease of age. I've been around since we got licensed in Japan, and I think there's more need and more emphasis on buying cancer insurance today than ever in Japan, and it only makes sense that, that should be the case because of it being a disease of age.

這是丹。我想回到一個——關於癌症保險的問題。抱歉，我花了一秒鐘才連接到這裡。但是日本已經進入老齡化社會，癌症是一種老年病。自從我們在日本獲得許可以來，我就一直在附近，我認為今天在日本比以往任何時候都更需要和更重視購買癌症保險，而且只有這樣才有意義，因為它是一種疾病年齡。

And so not only do I disagree with that question, I feel very strong about that it's the opposite. People are wanting cancer insurance more. We've done a good job in buying it. But as you can imagine, it's the middle-aged people more than the younger ones. And our challenge there is how to get younger people involved because they're not as frightened of cancer. And that's no different than it was in 1974. It's just a matter of being able to do that, and we've come up with some things to do that as well. But I think, if anything, I want to leave you with confidence that we feel like the market is more important now than it was in 1974.

因此，我不僅不同意這個問題，而且我非常強烈地認為它恰恰相反。人們更需要癌症保險。我們在購買方面做得很好。但是你可以想像，中年人多於年輕人。我們面臨的挑戰是如何讓年輕人參與進來，因為他們不那麼害怕癌症。這與 1974 年沒有什麼不同。這只是能夠做到這一點的問題，我們也想出了一些辦法來做到這一點。但我想，如果有的話，我想讓你充滿信心，我們覺得現在市場比 1974 年更重要。

The next question comes from Jimmy Bhullar of JPMorgan Securities.

下一個問題來自摩根大通證券的 Jimmy Bhullar。

So first, just a question for Brad. On the real estate portfolio, commercial real estate, you mentioned a loan-to-value at origination of 60%. What would you guess that is now given that rates are higher since you've originated most of these loans? And then obviously, demand for office space has dropped over the past couple of years because the COVID is gone and work from home.

首先，請問布拉德一個問題。關於房地產投資組合、商業房地產，您提到了 60% 的貸款價值比。由於您發起了這些貸款中的大部分，因此鑑於利率更高，您現在猜想是什麼？然後很明顯，過去幾年對辦公空間的需求有所下降，因為 COVID 已經消失並且可以在家工作。

Yes. Thank you, Jimmy. Actually, the average is 65% when we originated these. And when you look at the office portfolio, it really does depend on the specific asset, and it's driven in part by the overall occupancy as well as other investment needed to boost the occupancy to get the asset relatively full.

是的。謝謝你，吉米。實際上，當我們發起這些時，平均水平是 65%。當您查看辦公室組合時，它確實取決於特定資產，部分是由整體入住率以及提高入住率以使資產相對完整所需的其他投資驅動的。

I will tell you that for those loans that are in the process of being revalued, we generally saw a decline based on input from our managers and the updated cap rates of 30% to 35%. Now those are -- I would caution those are unique to the assets that we are in the process of foreclosing. I'm not sure you can apply that across the universe of all office space, but that's what we saw in the specific loans that went through the revaluation process.

我會告訴你，對於那些正在重估的貸款，根據我們經理的意見和更新後的 30% 至 35% 的上限利率，我們通常會看到下降。現在那些是 - 我會提醒那些是我們正在取消抵押品贖回權的資產所獨有的。我不確定你是否可以在所有辦公空間中應用它，但這就是我們在經過重估過程的特定貸款中看到的。

Okay. And then fair to assume that the numbers are smaller, but there's a similar decline across the rest of the portfolio in terms of value as well?

好的。然後公平地假設數字較小，但就價值而言，其餘投資組合也有類似的下降？

Again, it depends on the specific asset. We -- not all office in the portfolio is bad. We have some that are performing very, very strongly. They have good occupancy. The business plans are at or above plan. And we don't expect those have seen nearly the price decline is those that are -- have less occupancy and are resulting in us taking the keys.

同樣，這取決於具體資產。我們 - 並非投資組合中的所有辦公室都很糟糕。我們有一些表現非常非常強勁。他們有很好的入住率。商業計劃達到或超過計劃。而且我們預計那些幾乎沒有看到價格下跌的是那些 - 入住率較低並且導致我們拿走鑰匙的人。

The next question comes from Alex Scott of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Alex Scott。

First one I had is just on the potential impact if the yen rates or JGB yields, I should say, were to go up in a more significant way. I know you guys have provided the financial analyst brief meeting and so forth some sensitivities to your capital ratios. But could you maybe unpack how something like that would affect your business maybe across sales, like maybe the product mix. What are the ways that would impact your business?

我的第一個問題是如果日元利率或日本國債收益率，我應該說，以更顯著的方式上升的潛在影響。我知道你們已經提供了金融分析師簡短會議等對你們資本比率的一些敏感性。但是你能否解釋一下這樣的事情會如何影響你的業務可能會影響銷售，比如產品組合。哪些方式會影響您的業務？

This is Fred. From a business perspective, and I'll let Max comment on capital sensitivity, and I would invite in either Koide or Yoshizumi-san to comment on. But as you start to see rates recover, then you start to bring in some of the first sector savings products, particularly the yen-based products as potentially being able to price to offer up a more valuable value proposition, a better value proposition to the consumer. So you can see some of that, but it takes quite a while because the way that reserve discounting works in Japan, you have to go for quite a while of rate recovery before you are able to price more appealing and make the product more appealing broadly. So you need to have consecutive years, if you will, of recovery. But it does add some added tailwind to those products.

這是弗雷德。從商業角度來看，我會讓 Max 評論資本敏感性，我會邀請 Koide 或 Yoshizumi-san 發表評論。但是當你開始看到利率回升時，你就會開始引入一些第一部門的儲蓄產品，特別是基於日元的產品，因為它們有可能通過定價來提供更有價值的價值主張，更好的價值主張給消費者。所以你可以看到其中的一些，但這需要相當長的時間，因為保留折扣在日本的運作方式，你必須經歷相當長的一段時間才能恢復利率，然後才能定價更具吸引力並使產品在更廣泛的範圍內更具吸引力.所以如果你願意的話，你需要有連續幾年的恢復。但它確實為這些產品增加了一些順風。

I don't think you see much of any impact to the other aspects of our business that are far less rate sensitive and are really more of a morbidity play, as you can imagine.

正如您可以想像的那樣，我認為您不會對我們業務的其他方面產生太大影響，這些方面對利率的敏感度要低得多，而且實際上更像是一種發病率遊戲。

Max, I'll let you comment on the SMR dynamics, ESR dynamics.

Max，我會讓你評論 SMR 動態，ESR 動態。

Well, Alex, you obviously know the sensitivities to SMR, ESR, RBC, et cetera. But I would make one comment, and that is that as we get closer to ESR adoption in Japan, that is going to make our business slightly less interest rate sensitive. And the reason I say that is that our yen interest rates are now going to be much more aligned between the assets and liabilities, which means that movements in interest rates are going to follow more the economics of it, i.e., the economic impact on our business is going to flow through and have an economic impact on our capital base as well. So that means that our sensitivity is somewhat less, which obviously then means that currently I can tell you that we do hold volatility capital associated with interest rate volatility.

好吧，亞歷克斯，你顯然知道對 SMR、ESR、RBC 等的敏感性。但我要發表一個評論，那就是隨著我們越來越接近日本採用 ESR，這將使我們的業務對利率的敏感度略有降低。我這麼說的原因是我們的日元利率現在將在資產和負債之間更加一致，這意味著利率的變動將更多地遵循它的經濟學，即對我們的經濟影響業務將流經並對我們的資本基礎產生經濟影響。所以這意味著我們的敏感性有所降低，這顯然意味著目前我可以告訴你我們確實持有與利率波動相關的波動資本。

And to some extent, if you have a lower interest rate sensitivity going forward, that means that you obviously need slightly lower in terms of a volatility buffer. All of this is going to be optimized as we get closer to ESR adoption, so I'm not going to put a number on what that is, but I am encouraged by what I see in terms of the sensitivity to interest rates.

在某種程度上，如果你對未來的利率敏感度較低，這意味著你顯然需要略低的波動緩衝。隨著我們越來越接近採用 ESR，所有這些都將得到優化，所以我不會給出具體數字，但我對利率敏感性方面的看法感到鼓舞。

Got it. That's helpful. And then for a follow-up, I wanted to ask about the additional benefits you were talking about for the U.S., some of the things you're doing to improve persistency. I mean, could you help us think through what some of those things may be. And I mean when I hear higher benefits and no additional costs, I would think maybe that would put pressure on the benefit ratio itself. But maybe I'm not thinking about that right.

知道了。這很有幫助。然後作為後續行動，我想問一下您所說的對美國的額外好處，以及您為提高持久性所做的一些事情。我的意思是，你能幫我們想清楚其中的一些事情可能是什麼嗎？我的意思是，當我聽到更高的收益且沒有額外成本時，我認為這可能會給收益比率本身帶來壓力。但也許我沒有考慮那個權利。

First, this is Virgil from the U.S. Let me give you a perspective first on what are we doing to help improve our persistency. The first thing I'll say though is you saw the numbers, and given that the numbers reflect a 12-month rolling period, I will first start by saying that we did see improvement in our lapses during Q1. If you compare Q1 of this year to Q1 of last year, our lapses were down about 20% when it comes to related premium.

首先，我是來自美國的 Virgil。讓我先給大家介紹一下我們正在做些什麼來幫助提高我們的毅力。不過，我要說的第一件事是你看到了這些數字，鑑於這些數字反映了 12 個月的滾動期，我首先要說的是，我們確實看到第一季度的失誤有所改善。如果將今年第一季度與去年第一季度進行比較，我們在相關保費方面的失誤下降了約 20%。

What we've done though to ensure we continue to see a term with this though is we stood up an office of persistency. The intent there is to get a team of data-driven experts to look at the analytics behind what are some of the key drivers to help improve persistency, but also put together a framework and a governance framework to ensure there are actions going forward.

我們所做的是確保我們繼續看到這個術語，儘管我們建立了一個持久性辦公室。這樣做的目的是讓一個由數據驅動的專家組成的團隊來研究一些關鍵驅動因素背後的分析，以幫助提高持久性，同時也將一個框架和一個治理框架放在一起，以確保採取行動。

Some things we've already done this year would be to drive utilization of benefits. You heard Fred allude to this in his comments, but we launched a wellness campaign in Q1. What we're really trying to do is, a, really push preventive maintenance when it comes to helping our consumer base. But more importantly though, it is to drive utilization of the benefit. When people utilize the benefits, we generally see a higher persistency, generating more loyalty to the product and have them keep them longer.

我們今年已經做的一些事情是推動福利的利用。你聽到弗雷德在他的評論中提到了這一點，但我們在第一季度發起了一場健康運動。我們真正想做的是，在幫助我們的消費者群方面真正推動預防性維護。但更重要的是，它是為了推動福利的利用。當人們利用這些好處時，我們通常會看到更高的持久性，對產品產生更高的忠誠度並讓他們保持更長時間。

So during a 5-week period, during the campaign, for the wellness benefit alone on the individual products, we saw a 27% increase in wellness utilization on that particular product line. You will see us continue to do things like that, but the premise would be driving utilization. Another key foundational effort would be, remember, our products are portable with a lot of movement in the job market, if you see someone leave one organization to go into another or perhaps no longer working with their current employer, you can keep your coverage with Aflac. We're making sure there's ease of portability, making sure we've improved our ways to collect money through billing mechanisms and making sure we have digital needs for people to go online to keep the available coverage.

因此，在為期 5 週的活動期間，僅就個別產品的健康益處而言，我們發現該特定產品線的健康利用率增加了 27%。你會看到我們繼續做這樣的事情，但前提是提高利用率。另一個關鍵的基礎工作是，請記住，我們的產品在就業市場上有很多變化，如果你看到有人離開一個組織去另一個組織或者可能不再與他們現在的雇主一起工作，你可以繼續你的報導阿夫拉克。我們正在確保便於攜帶，確保我們改進了通過計費機制收錢的方式，並確保我們有數字需求讓人們上網以保持可用的覆蓋範圍。

So those are some of the things I'll share right now, but overall, I am pleased to say that there is progress, and we have a definitive focus on that going forward for the remainder of the year.

所以這些是我現在要分享的一些事情，但總的來說，我很高興地說已經取得了進展，我們在今年餘下的時間裡明確關注這一點。

The next question comes from John Barnidge of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

I know there's a traditional seasonal 4Q increase in the expense ratio but there's also expense increases around product launches. So with the new cancer product being rolled out in Japan Post in the second quarter and then in the first effort really through that channel dated back before the pandemic, can you maybe talk about one-off efforts to train agents or any market partnership that we should be thinking about?

我知道費用率在第四季度會出現傳統的季節性增長，但產品發布前後的費用也會增加。因此，隨著新的抗癌產品在第二季度在日本郵政推出，然後在第一次努力中真正通過該渠道追溯到大流行之前，您能否談談一次性培訓代理人或我們的任何市場合作夥伴關係的努力應該思考什麼？

John, I want to make sure I heard that last part of your -- you're on the track of expense ratio quarter-to-quarter related to product launches. But what's your last part of your question?

約翰，我想確保我聽到了你的最後一部分 - 你正在跟踪與產品發布相關的季度費用率。但是你問題的最後一部分是什麼？

Yes. Yes, so with the new cancer product being rolled out in Japan Post in the second quarter, are there any efforts to like retrain the agents or remarket the partnership and expenses associated with that because big launch since before the pandemic (inaudible).

是的。是的，隨著第二季度在日本郵政推出新的抗癌產品，是否有任何努力來重新培訓代理人或重新營銷與此相關的合作夥伴關係和費用，因為自大流行之前就開始大規模推出（聽不清）。

Understood. Why don't we do this? Let's go to Yoshizumi to talk about the training and rollout of training for Japan Post agents. And then Todd Daniels is with us and can comment on any implications for expense ratio. So why don't you go ahead, Yoshizumi-san?

明白了。我們為什麼不這樣做呢？讓我們去Yoshizumi談談日本郵政代理人的培訓和培訓的推出。然後托德丹尼爾斯和我們在一起，可以評論對費用比率的任何影響。那麼你為什麼不繼續，Yoshizumi-san？

[Interpreted] So regarding the Japan Post training, what we are doing is that the management layer or the management of both companies are very involved at each layer of the training. So what we are doing is going through the cycle plan, do check and action to make sure that things are going successfully. And through this planned do check and action cycle, we are trying to identify weaknesses and try to resolve those weaknesses and overcome them. And those are being monitored and also being taken action by both companies.

[解讀] 所以關於日本郵政的培訓，我們正在做的是管理層或兩家公司的管理層都非常參與培訓的每一層。所以我們正在做的是通過週期計劃，進行檢查和行動以確保事情順利進行。通過這個計劃好的檢查和行動週期，我們正在努力找出弱點，並努力解決並克服這些弱點。兩家公司都在監控並採取行動。

And as one of the examples of having the checking process is this once in every 3 months or on a quarterly basis, we do have this strategic alliance committee where the top management of each company is involved to talk about these issues.

作為檢查流程的一個例子，每 3 個月一次或每季度一次，我們確實有這個戰略聯盟委員會，每個公司的最高管理層都參與討論這些問題。

And furthermore, in the associate channel, we are strengthening our training method.

此外，在副頻道中，我們正在加強我們的培訓方法。

[Interpreted] Now this is Aflac Japan Koide once again. Regarding expenses, normally, when we launch a new cancer product, we will be doing training or renewing our solicitation materials, et cetera. And this is sort of like a normal course of action that we normally take when launching a new product. So that's what we did for this new cancer product as well.

[解讀]現在又是 Aflac Japan Koide。關於費用，通常情況下，當我們推出新的抗癌產品時，我們會進行培訓或更新我們的徵集材料等。這有點像我們在推出新產品時通常採取的正常行動。所以這也是我們為這種新的抗癌產品所做的。

And Todd, I don't know if you have any color on timing of expenses. John, the premise of your question, that was correct. And that is, for example, this quarter, we had a pretty low expense ratio in Japan, but that oftentimes can move around with the timing of product launch and training and promotion costs. Todd, if you have any comments on that?

托德，我不知道你對支出時間是否有任何看法。約翰，你的問題的前提是正確的。也就是說，例如，本季度，我們在日本的費用率非常低，但通常會隨著產品發布的時間以及培訓和促銷成本而變化。托德，你對此有何評論？

Yes. I agree, Fred. I think the first quarter is traditionally lower with expense ratio, and you see a higher expense ratio later in the year with IP and marketing spend. But we have been paying for the training and the marketing of the product all throughout the quarter, so a lot of that is [some] cost. And now you have the sales of the product and most of the acquisition expenses will be amortized into DAC. So you should see a slightly higher expense ratio as expected in the second quarter, but not really materially a result of Japan Post.

是的。我同意，弗雷德。我認為第一季度的費用率通常較低，而今年晚些時候 IP 和營銷支出的費用率會更高。但我們一直在為整個季度的培訓和產品營銷付費，所以其中很大一部分是 [some] 成本。現在你有了產品的銷售，大部分收購費用將攤銷到 DAC 中。因此，您應該會看到第二季度的費用率略高於預期，但這並不是日本郵政的實質性結果。

John, for the full year, we would expect to have an expense ratio in the 20% to 22% range.

約翰，對於全年，我們預計費用率在 20% 到 22% 之間。

The next question comes from Erik Bass of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Erik Bass。

I had a couple of questions for Brad on the CRE portfolio. And I was hoping you could talk more about the common factors among the loans that are entering foreclosure. And then also maybe talk about what's driving the $900 million of CRE loans (inaudible) in your watch list currently. Maybe how that watch list has changed in the past few months and what's the risk of that growing over time.

我有幾個關於 CRE 投資組合的問題要問 Brad。我希望你能更多地談談即將取消抵押品贖回權的貸款之間的共同因素。然後也可以談談目前在您的觀察列表中推動 9 億美元 CRE 貸款（聽不清）的原因。也許該觀察名單在過去幾個月發生了怎樣的變化，以及隨著時間的推移而增加的風險是什麼。

Sure. Thanks, Erik. On the common factors, it's really a combination of the leasing velocity not being quick enough relative to the original business plan and the sponsors being unwilling to continue to support the asset. In many cases, we have an upcoming maturity. And when that happens, we have a couple of choices.

當然。謝謝，埃里克。在共同因素上，這實際上是租賃速度相對於原始業務計劃不夠快以及贊助商不願繼續支持資產的組合。在許多情況下，我們即將成熟。當這種情況發生時，我們有幾個選擇。

We can enter into negotiations to extend and renew the loan. But in those examples, we always require additional protections. It usually involves a pay down of the loan to reflect the current market and current progress of the plan. It can include personal guarantees, cash sweeps, a variety of other things. Then we usually get paid a little more as well. And if the sponsor is unable to meet those, that's when we enter into a more intense workout process, which will usually lead to foreclosure. And that's been the bulk of the issue with the $500 million of current NRO.

我們可以就延長和續簽貸款進行談判。但在那些例子中，我們總是需要額外的保護。它通常涉及償還貸款以反映當前市場和計劃的當前進度。它可以包括個人擔保、現金轉賬和各種其他事項。然後我們通常也會得到更多的報酬。如果贊助商無法滿足這些要求，那我們就會進入更激烈的鍛煉過程，這通常會導致喪失抵押品贖回權。這就是目前 5 億美元的 NRO 的主要問題。

I do want to mention though that of that $500 million, we do have occupancy. These are running on average about 60%, which obviously is lower than we would like, and the sponsors would like. But these are not sitting there as empty buildings, they are functional, they do have tenants, it's just a matter of continuing to grow the tenant base and that has slowed in this current environment.

我確實想提一下，儘管那 5 億美元，我們確實有入住率。這些平均運行約 60%，這顯然低於我們和讚助商希望的水平。但這些並不是空置的建築物，它們是實用的，它們確實有租戶，這只是繼續擴大租戶基礎的問題，而且在當前環境下已經放緩。

As to the $900 million, that's just our forward look on loans where we do have maturities coming up. We do have some issues with the underlying business plan. We are in negotiations with the sponsor and we're still unclear on exactly how those situations will resolve. But if we thought they were imminent, they would have been included in that $500 million. So we're watching that $900 million very closely, but those are largely issues that are coming down later in the year.

至於 9 億美元，這只是我們對即將到期的貸款的前瞻性展望。我們的基礎業務計劃確實存在一些問題。我們正在與讚助商進行談判，我們仍不清楚這些情況將如何解決。但如果我們認為它們迫在眉睫，它們就會包含在這 5 億美元中。所以我們正在密切關注這 9 億美元，但這些主要是今年晚些時候要解決的問題。

Got it. And then just to clarify, when you talked about the $200 million of reserves that could be needed in your stress scenario, is that the full capital impact? Or could there be any additional pressure from capital charge changes when you bring a property on to your balance sheet?

知道了。然後澄清一下，當你談到在你的壓力情景中可能需要的 2 億美元儲備時，這是全部資本影響嗎？或者，當您將房產納入資產負債表時，資本費用的變化是否會帶來額外壓力？

So the additional capital that you would also have on top of that would be, let's call it, rating migration. As you take ownership of a property, you obviously move from the capital charge of that being a loan to being an owned real estate equity and operated property.

因此，除此之外，您還將擁有的額外資本，我們稱之為評級遷移。當您獲得財產的所有權時，您顯然會從作為貸款的資本負擔轉變為擁有房地產股權和經營財產。

If you -- just to give you a sense for it, if we were to add $500 million of real estate-owned equity versus that being a mortgage loan, that would impact our SMR negatively by 5 points, a relatively modest number.

如果你 - 只是為了讓你感覺到它，如果我們要增加 5 億美元的房地產自有股權而不是抵押貸款，那將對我們的 SMR 產生負面影響 5 個百分點，這是一個相對較小的數字。

If we were to add $100 million on our U.S. balance sheet going from a loan to real estate-owned equity, that would decrease our combined RBC ratio by 8 points.

如果我們要在我們的美國資產負債表上增加 1 億美元，從貸款到房地產擁有的股權，這將使我們的綜合 RBC 比率降低 8 個百分點。

Keep in mind, these numbers are not going to be exactly linear, but it's going to -- that gives you a good flavor for our sensitivity.

請記住，這些數字不會完全呈線性關係，但它會——這會讓你對我們的敏感性有一個很好的了解。

The next question comes from Tom Gallagher of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a few follow-ups on the real estate foreclosures. The $500 million that you're, I guess, in the process of foreclosing on, did you not take any reserves or losses on those? And is that -- and if not, is that just because of the value of the land still exceeds the value of the loans? That's my first question.

關於房地產止贖的一些後續行動。我猜你在取消抵押品贖回權過程中的 5 億美元，你沒有對這些進行任何準備金或損失嗎？那是——如果不是，那僅僅是因為土地的價值仍然超過貸款的價值嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. We did -- that is where the $10 million of additional reserves came from. It was on that $500 million in process of foreclosure. And the reason it wasn't larger is because looking at the decline in the asset, both the physical property as well as land or any other peripheral value, the declines were not severe enough to dip into our 65% loan to value.

是的。我們做到了——這就是 1000 萬美元額外儲備金的來源。這是在取消抵押品贖回權過程中的 5 億美元。它不是更大的原因是因為看資產的下降，包括有形財產和土地或任何其他外圍價值，下降幅度還不足以達到我們 65% 的貸款價值。

Got you. That makes sense. The -- what about lost NII? You were getting presumably 8% or 9% yields on these loans. Now as you -- as they become owned real estate assets, would you expect there to be a meaningful change in the yield on those assets? Sorry, go ahead.

明白了這就說得通了。丟失的 NII 怎麼辦？這些貸款的收益率大概為 8% 或 9%。現在，當你——當它們成為擁有的房地產資產時，你會期望這些資產的收益率發生有意義的變化嗎？對不起，繼續。

Sorry, Tom. Yes, it's a really good question. It's one we spend a lot of time on. These properties, by and large, are generating some income. There is an NOI coming off of them. It is going to be lower than the yield we're getting on the underlying loan, and that is baked into all of our projections and planning.

對不起，湯姆。是的，這是一個非常好的問題。這是我們花費大量時間的一個。總的來說，這些房產正在產生一些收入。它們發出 NOI。這將低於我們從基礎貸款中獲得的收益率，這已納入我們所有的預測和計劃中。

Got you. And Brad, any indication on the $500 million, are we talking about 8 or 9 going to 4, 6, 2? Like some range would be helpful.

明白了布拉德，關於 5 億美元的任何跡象，我們是在談論 8 或 9 到 4、6、2 嗎？像一些範圍會有所幫助。

Yes. Well, right now, it's currently 9 properties. We think that is -- that reflects our current best estimate of the number. There are different levels of discussions going on in the workout process with the sponsors. We may have a couple of those break positively where they end up coming out of this bucket. But at this point, we think that's unlikely, and we believe it was prudent to assume that this full $500 million are going to be foreclosed and become real estate-owned.

是的。那麼，現在，它目前有 9 個屬性。我們認為 - 這反映了我們目前對數字的最佳估計。在與讚助商的鍛煉過程中進行了不同程度的討論。我們可能會有一些積極地突破他們最終從這個桶中出來的地方。但在這一點上，我們認為這不太可能，我們認為假設這全部 5 億美元將被取消抵押品贖回權並成為房地產所有是謹慎的做法。

Next question comes from Wilma Burdis of Raymond James.

下一個問題來自 Raymond James 的 Wilma Burdis。

Could you give an update on any plans to refresh the Japan medical product? I think it's about 18 months old, and you tend to refresh the product every 2 years or so.

您能否介紹更新日本醫療產品的任何計劃？我認為它大約有 18 個月大，您傾向於每 2 年左右更新一次產品。

Yes. As I mentioned in my comments, we're coming out and ready to be prepared to have that -- our new product in the market in the fourth quarter. And as I made comments in my script, the idea there is to have a simplified product that attracts younger and new policyholders as well as a more comprehensive version of the product that's attractive for existing policyholders as well as older policyholders that seek more comprehensive coverage. That's the basic game plan.

是的。正如我在評論中提到的那樣，我們即將推出並準備好在第四季度推出我們的新產品。正如我在我的劇本中發表的評論，我的想法是擁有一個吸引年輕和新保單持有人的簡化產品，以及一個更全面的產品版本，對現有保單持有人以及尋求更全面覆蓋的年長保單持有人具有吸引力。這是基本的遊戲計劃。

I'll go to Yoshizumi-san to comment on the rollout of the medical product and any thoughts he has on how we're going to market with that product.

我會去 Yoshizumi-san 就醫療產品的推出發表評論，以及他對我們將如何將該產品推向市場的任何想法。

[Interpreted] Okay, this is Yoshizumi once again. Thank you for the question. Well, regarding the Japanese medical market, what I can say is that it is very competitive. And especially the competition is in trying to acquire young to middle-aged customers, and that's where all the companies are aiming for. As a result, what is being asked by the market is to come up with something with reasonable premiums and simple benefit structure. And we are hoping to launch a new product that are focused on those points and will have competitive advantage.

[翻譯] 好吧，又是吉純。感謝你的提問。那麼關於日本的醫療市場，我能說的是，它是非常有競爭力的。特別是競爭是試圖獲得年輕到中年的客戶，而這正是所有公司的目標。因此，市場要求的是拿出合理的保費和簡單的福利結構。我們希望推出一款專注於這些方面並具有競爭優勢的新產品。

And especially by using this new product, the channel that where the competition is the most severe is a large, enormous collusive agencies channel, and that's where we would like to regain our share. Right now, we are collaborating between Japan and the U.S. to come up with a good product and we are in a full preparation mode. And that's all for me. Thank you very much.

特別是通過使用這個新產品，競爭最激烈的渠道是一個巨大的、巨大的串通代理渠道，這就是我們想要重新獲得份額的地方。目前，我們正在與日本和美國合作開發一個好的產品，我們正處於全面的準備階段。這就是我的全部。非常感謝。

And then just give a little bit of color on the WAYS and Child Endowment products. I know these products have been a little bit pressured in the past by fluctuations in interest rates. So maybe talk a little bit about why you feel like this is the right product for now and how it's different than earlier versions of the product.

然後在 WAYS 和 Child Endowment 產品上添加一點色彩。我知道這些產品過去曾因利率波動而受到一些壓力。因此，也許可以談談為什麼您覺得這是目前合適的產品，以及它與該產品的早期版本有何不同。

Yes, I'll make just a couple of comments, and then I'll ask Koide-san and Yoshizumi-san to comment. But first, remember back when we were selling WAYS a number of years ago, 10 years ago, much of the volume of that sale -- those sales were through banks and particularly what we would call mega banks or the large banks and regional banks. And much of it is sold with discount advanced premium features. So products structured more for deposit like mining, meaning single premium-type short pay products, which can be much more attractive particularly in the banking channel.

是的，我只是發表一些意見，然後我會請小出先生和吉泉先生髮表意見。但首先，請記住幾年前，10 年前我們銷售 WAYS 的時候，大部分銷售量——這些銷售是通過銀行，特別是我們所說的大型銀行或大型銀行和區域性銀行。其中大部分以折扣高級高級功能出售。因此，產品結構更像挖礦，即單一溢價型短期支付產品，尤其在銀行渠道更具吸引力。

During our investor conference, we talked a bit about the approach we're taking here which is more of a level pay process product. And that level pay product is less appealing in the bank channel which is why we have rather muted expectations for volume. But it is -- it can be a useful tool and sell in our associate channel and more of a financial planning environment and attracts a younger policyholder in the process. And so that's where we came back in.

在我們的投資者會議上，我們談到了我們在這裡採用的方法，它更像是一種水平薪酬流程產品。而且這種級別的付費產品在銀行渠道中的吸引力較小，這就是為什麼我們對數量的預期相當低。但它是——它可以成為一個有用的工具，可以在我們的關聯渠道和更多的財務規劃環境中銷售，並在此過程中吸引年輕的保單持有人。這就是我們回來的地方。

From an engineering perspective, I'd also add that in the last 10 years, we've quite advanced our investment strategies and structures quite a bit under the leadership of Aflac Global Investments. And that is a nice weapon to have when looking at first sector savings products and dialing in investment strategy to back product and product pricing. And then as Max Broden has covered with you, we now have a reinsurance unit, and reinsurance is actively used to help manage capital returns over time of that product. So we have some engineering benefits that make it more attractive to come in at this time.

從工程的角度來看，我還要補充一點，在過去的 10 年裡，我們在 Aflac Global Investments 的領導下大大推進了我們的投資戰略和結構。在查看第一部門儲蓄產品和調整投資策略以支持產品和產品定價時，這是一個很好的武器。然後正如 Max Broden 向您介紹的那樣，我們現在有一個再保險部門，再保險被積極用於幫助管理該產品隨時間推移的資本回報。所以我們有一些工程上的好處，使它在這個時候進來更有吸引力。

Koide-san or Yoshizumi, maybe on the (inaudible).

Koide-san 或 Yoshizumi，也許在（聽不清）。

Yes, this is Dan. I want to make one comment about it is that one of the ways or the most important way we're judging WAYS and Child Endowment is our ability to add on our third sector product with that. So we're not just looking at sales. If you gave us nothing but sales, although it's profitable and hit some of the targets we want, it's the ability to do that.

是的，這是丹。我想對此發表評論，我們判斷 WAYS 和兒童基金會的方式之一或最重要的方式是我們有能力增加我們的第三部門產品。所以我們不只是看銷量。如果你只給我們銷售，雖然它是有利可圖的，並且達到了我們想要的一些目標，但它有能力做到這一點。

It also is very helpful because of the premium that's involved for our agents to make commissions and getting them reengaged, which they had been off a little bit. So that's been very helpful, too.

這也非常有幫助，因為我們的代理人收取佣金並讓他們重新參與其中所涉及的溢價，他們已經關閉了一點。所以這也非常有幫助。

So it is a product we're watching carefully. But I think Fred's comments were good ones in that it's really the bank channel that we do not see as being the market for us because of the single premium and the older ages. We want these younger people with lower premiums to get them engaged, and it has been working so far.

所以這是我們正在仔細觀察的產品。但我認為弗雷德的評論是好的，因為它確實是銀行渠道，我們不認為它是我們的市場，因為單一保費和年齡較大。我們希望這些保費較低的年輕人能夠參與進來，並且到目前為止一直有效。

Yes, that -- I think we've covered it here. I would say we're -- I believe roughly half of our sales are to individuals younger than -- even more than that, younger than 50 years old, that may be even north of that. And then I think we're achieving upwards of 40% cross-sell results to new and younger policyholders, to Dan's point.

是的，我想我們已經在這裡介紹過了。我會說我們 - 我相信我們大約一半的銷售額是針對年齡小於 - 甚至超過 50 歲的人，甚至可能更年輕。然後我認為我們正在為新的和年輕的投保人實現超過 40% 的交叉銷售結果，丹的觀點。

So those are critical metrics. We want to see it attracting young and we want to see the cross-sell activity because that's fundamental to the strategy of coming back in the market.

所以這些是關鍵指標。我們希望看到它吸引年輕人，我們希望看到交叉銷售活動，因為這是重返市場戰略的基礎。

[Interpreted] This is Koide from Aflac Japan. Well, let me just add a little bit information here. Last year, in October, we did change rates of Child Endowment and WAYS product. And the purpose of that time was to acquire new customers as well as young customers using these products. And for that purpose, we have focused on selling level premium type of product. And as Fred mentioned, this level premium-focused product is very important for associates to sell. However, it is not so popular among the bank channels. And as a result, associates sales were our focus. And as Dan mentioned earlier, these products also go well in terms of doing cross-sell with third sector products. So we are using a lot of leverage where -- we are using these products as leverage to sell third sector. And the proportion of WAYS product being sold through banks is still maintained very low, and it will be very limited again this year. That's all for me.

[解讀] 我是 Aflac Japan 的小出。好吧，讓我在這裡添加一點信息。去年 10 月，我們確實更改了 Child Endowment 和 WAYS 產品的利率。那個時候的目的是獲得新客戶以及使用這些產品的年輕客戶。為此，我們專注於銷售優質產品。正如 Fred 所提到的，這種以優質為重點的產品對於銷售人員來說非常重要。但是，它在銀行渠道中並不那麼受歡迎。因此，聯營公司的銷售是我們的重點。正如 Dan 之前提到的，這些產品在與第三方產品進行交叉銷售方面也很順利。因此，我們在其中使用了很多槓桿——我們正在使用這些產品作為槓桿來銷售第三部門。而通過銀行銷售的WAYS產品比例仍然維持在很低的水平，今年又會非常有限。這就是我的全部。

[Interpreted] So let me just add a word as well, this is Yoshizumi speaking. So what I would like to say is that those customers that have actually purchased WAYS and Child Endowment are basically 40s and below. So those customers in their 30s and 40s account for 83% of all customers. And on top of that, as was mentioned, we are planning to sell third sector product using WAYS and Child Endowment by using this level premium product. That was our strategy. And right now, our sell rate is 47%.

[解讀] 那麼我也來補充一句吧，我是吉純。所以我想說的是，真正購買過WAYS和Child Endowment的客戶基本都是40歲以下的。因此，這些 30 多歲和 40 多歲的客戶佔所有客戶的 83%。最重要的是，如前所述，我們計劃通過使用此級別的優質產品，使用 WAYS 和 Child Endowment 銷售第三部門產品。那是我們的策略。現在，我們的銷售率為 47%。

And so what I'd like to do going forward is to really expand and really sell more in third sector products by using Child Endowment and WAYS as a trigger and catalyst. That's it for me.

因此，我想做的是通過使用兒童基金會和 WAYS 作為觸發器和催化劑，真正擴大和真正銷售更多的第三部門產品。對我來說就是這樣。

The next question comes from Ryan Krueger of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ryan Krueger。

Get back to this transitional real estate. A couple of questions. One is, can you -- what is the total people reserve specifically against the transitional real estate that you're holding at this point? And then I also just wanted to confirm that the $900 million on the watch list, is that in addition to the $500 million potentially foreclosed or is the $500 million the subset of the $900 million?

回到這個過渡性房地產。幾個問題。一是，你能不能——專為你目前持有的過渡性房地產準備的總人數是多少？然後我也只想確認觀察名單上的 9 億美元，是在可能取消抵押品贖回權的 5 億美元之外，還是 5 億美元是 9 億美元的子集？

Yes. Thanks, Ryan. Let me start with the second question first. The $900 million does include the $500 million, so an incremental $400 million that we're watching.

是的。謝謝，瑞安。我先從第二個問題說起。 9 億美元確實包括 5 億美元，因此我們正在觀察增加的 4 億美元。

On the CECL reserves, essentially all of those reserves are related to the loan book. The split between middle market loan and TRE -- or real estate, generally, most of which is in TRE, it's about 35%, 40% of the total CECL reserve is related to mortgage loans.

在 CECL 儲備中，基本上所有這些儲備都與貸款簿有關。中間市場貸款和 TRE 之間的分割——或房地產，一般來說，大部分在 TRE 中，約為 35%，CECL 總儲備的 40% 與抵押貸款有關。

And Ryan, our total CECL reserve was $250 million.

瑞安，我們的 CECL 儲備金總額為 2.5 億美元。

And then I guess for Max, you have the 400% RBC target in the U.S. When you think about Japan, how would you frame kind of your targeted capital ratios there at this point? Because it's a bit more challenging from the outside to think about the cushion you have.

然後我想對於 Max，你在美國有 400% 的 RBC 目標。當你想到日本時，你會如何確定此時的目標資本比率？因為從外部考慮您擁有的墊子更具挑戰性。

Yes. So we obviously operate with strong levels of capital, and you know our sensitivities to different kind of macro factors. We're also in this now transition over time from SMR into the new ESR world. As we do that transition, we obviously are going to find our way to, over time, optimize our capital base somewhat.

是的。所以我們顯然以強大的資本水平運作，你知道我們對不同種類的宏觀因素的敏感性。隨著時間的推移，我們也正處於從 SMR 到新的 ESR 世界的過渡中。當我們進行這種轉變時，我們顯然會隨著時間的推移找到我們的方法來優化我們的資本基礎。

But also every time you go through a transition, you actually want to do that with some additional level of capital in order to make sure that you have the flexibility to then down the road optimize your capital structure.

而且每次你經歷轉型時，你實際上都想用一些額外的資本來做到這一點，以確保你有靈活性，然後優化你的資本結構。

So right now, we feel comfortable where we operate, both from a standpoint of it gives us flexibility to be opportunistic where we can, but also then obviously absorb any kind of losses that may come our way. And also it gives opportunities for us to also deploy capital organically into opportunities that we might see as well.

所以現在，我們在經營的地方感到很自在，從這個角度來看，它讓我們可以靈活地在可能的地方投機取巧，但顯然也可以吸收我們可能遇到的任何損失。它還為我們提供了機會，將資本有機地部署到我們也可能看到的機會中。

The next question comes from Michael Ward of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的邁克爾沃德。

And thank you for all the color on the loan books. Extremely helpful. So Brad, on the commercial mortgage loans, I think you mentioned the process of making office buildings more attractive for tenants and leases. I guess my understanding on office is that they sort of have to be super new and exciting to attract new leases. We've heard that the cost of that can be super expensive at times. So just curious if you have any thoughts on that and if the $10 million reserve math incorporates that.

並感謝您為貸款簿上的所有顏色。非常有幫助。布拉德，關於商業抵押貸款，我想你提到了使辦公樓對租戶和租賃更具吸引力的過程。我想我對辦公室的理解是，它們必須是超級新的和令人興奮的才能吸引新的租約。我們聽說這樣做的成本有時會非常昂貴。所以很好奇你是否對此有任何想法，以及 1000 萬美元的儲備數學是否包含了這一點。

Yes. Thanks, Michael. You're right. In this environment, the leasing that is occurring is migrating towards newer properties with nicer amenities. About 80% plus of our total TRE book is in Class A properties. But keep in mind, too, the nature of transitional real estate is that transitional piece. These loans are providing that funding to reposition the asset. A lot of them are lease-up transitions. So our capital is going to refresh the asset. So through this process, we're getting, in most cases, the newest, most refreshed with the current amenities asset in the local submarkets. So that is one very good thing we have going for us. But in some cases, the business plans just need a little bit further work, and that's what's resulting in some of the foreclosures.

是的。謝謝，邁克爾。你說得對。在這種環境下，正在發生的租賃正在向設施更好的新物業遷移。在我們的 TRE 總賬簿中，大約 80% 以上是 A 類房產。但也要記住，過渡性房地產的性質就是過渡性的一塊。這些貸款正在提供重新定位資產的資金。其中很多是租賃過渡。所以我們的資本要刷新資產。因此，通過這個過程，在大多數情況下，我們將獲得當地子市場中最新、最更新的當前便利設施資產。所以這是我們為我們所做的一件非常好的事情。但在某些情況下，商業計劃只需要做一些進一步的工作，這就是導致一些止贖的原因。

Awesome. And then on the rate caps. I was wondering if you can help us understand maybe the percentage of rate caps on the portfolio that have reset with the jump in rates over the last 12 months.

驚人的。然後是利率上限。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們了解在過去 12 個月中隨著利率上漲而重置的投資組合利率上限的百分比。

The rate caps exist for the life of the loan. So only those that have reached maturity and are in some process of workout would have -- they would lose that protection. So the bulk of the portfolio prior to maturity is still protected by those rate caps. And for transitional real estate, it is essentially the entire book. And as I said, for middle-market loans, it's a very small percent.

利率上限在貸款期限內存在。因此，只有那些已經成熟並處於某種鍛煉過程中的人才會失去這種保護。因此，到期前的大部分投資組合仍受到這些利率上限的保護。對於過渡性房地產，它基本上是整本書。正如我所說，對於中間市場貸款，這是一個非常小的百分比。

The next question is a follow-up from Wes Carmichael of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題是 Wells Fargo 的 Wes Carmichael 的跟進。

I actually had a question for Dan, and it relates to succession. And I know you've had a couple of leaders transition, but I'm really thinking about your CEO role, how -- I know you've laid out some '25, '26 sales targets. But what are you thinking for your role in the timing on that and how we should think about transition.

我實際上有一個問題要問 Dan，它與繼任有關。而且我知道你有幾個領導者過渡，但我真的在考慮你的首席執行官角色，如何 - 我知道你已經制定了一些'25，'26銷售目標。但是你認為你在這個時間點上的角色是什麼，我們應該如何考慮過渡。

Well, I'm not going to be that good a retiree and I'm not in that big a hurry. I just had a physical at Emory and got a good report. So I plan on staying around a few more years. But I still think my #1 responsibility is to make sure I have it prepared. We never know what can happen in life, and we've got to have a company ready to go and go uninterrupted. And so that's one of the things that I'm doing.

好吧，我不會成為一名出色的退休人員，而且我也不會那麼著急。我剛剛在埃默里大學體檢，得到了一份不錯的報告。所以我打算再呆幾年。但我仍然認為我的第一責任是確保我已經準備好了。我們永遠不知道生活中會發生什麼，我們必須有一家隨時待命且不受干擾的公司。這就是我正在做的事情之一。

I will say, for example, with Virgil and the changeover to Teresa, that's been smooth. I will say that Eric's changeover to Brad has been smooth. You go back to Koide. We've gone on interrupted on the -- as things take place. And to me, that's one of the things I have to make sure happens. And I promise you, I'm working toward that with the Board of Directors who ultimately make the call. But we have very structured and very intense meetings about what goes on in regard to personnel and human resources at our August meeting. And so I'll be constantly updating on what's going on there.

我會說，例如，對於 Virgil 和 Teresa 的轉變，一切都很順利。我會說 Eric 向 Brad 的轉變很順利。你回到小出那裡。隨著事情的發生，我們繼續打斷了。對我來說，這是我必須確保發生的事情之一。我向你保證，我正在與最終做出決定的董事會一起努力實現這一目標。但我們在 8 月的會議上就人事和人力資源方面的進展舉行了非常有條理且非常緊張的會議。所以我會不斷更新那裡發生的事情。

But I would say I'll be around a few more years. So unless the Board gets tired of me, look for me to be here.

但我會說我會再待幾年。因此，除非董事會對我感到厭煩，否則請找我來。

The next question is a follow-up from Tom Gallagher of Evercore ISI.

下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Tom Gallagher。

Just a few CRE follow-ups. Brad, the $900 million watch list, are those all '23 maturities? And can you comment on total maturities for both '23 and '24?

只是一些 CRE 跟進。布拉德，9 億美元的觀察名單，都是 23 年到期的嗎？你能評論一下 23 年和 24 年的總到期日嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Tom. The $900 million on the watch list is predominantly near-term maturities. I will have to double check, but I don't believe we have anything out into 2024 on that watch list. But it is predominantly near-term maturities that we have to address. No, I'm sorry, what was your second question?

是的。謝謝，湯姆。觀察名單上的 9 億美元主要是近期到期的債券。我將不得不仔細檢查，但我認為該觀察名單上沒有任何到 2024 年的內容。但我們必須解決的主要是近期到期的問題。不，對不起，你的第二個問題是什麼？

Just what are the total maturities of your total.

您的總到期日是多少。

Sorry. Yes, these are very short-term loans. The -- at origination, they're generally 3 years in term with options for 1-year extensions based on certain thresholds being met. So these do turn over pretty quick. We do have -- it's less than 1/3 of the total portfolio rolling over this year. But a big portion of those are what's on this watch list.

對不起。是的，這些都是非常短期的貸款。 -- 在最初，他們通常有 3 年的任期，可以選擇根據滿足的某些閾值延長 1 年。所以這些確實很快就會轉變。我們確實有 - 它不到今年滾動的總投資組合的 1/3。但其中很大一部分都在這個觀察名單上。

Got you. And then just one on, you mentioned your [alt] portfolio, you expected near-term returns to be volatile. Should we -- is the interpretation that 2Q [alts] return should be negative? Or just any perspective on that?

明白了然後就一個，你提到了你的 [alt] 投資組合，你預計近期回報會波動。我們應該 - 2Q [alts] 回報的解釋應該是負面的嗎？或者對此有何看法？

It's really way too early to try to give any insight on second quarter. I think you're familiar with the lag we have in our marks. For first quarter, we're really reflecting broad market activity from third and fourth quarter just given the lag in the reporting to our managers and then the reporting to us and it gets extended a little bit longer in fourth quarter.

現在就試圖對第二季度給出任何見解還為時過早。我認為您對我們的分數滯後很熟悉。對於第一季度，我們確實反映了第三季度和第四季度的廣泛市場活動，只是考慮到向我們的經理報告的時間滯後，然後向我們報告，並且在第四季度延長了一點時間。

So second quarter should correlate more closely with the general market activity we saw in fourth quarter and a little bit of first quarter, but it's just way too early to give you any direction on that.

因此，第二季度應該與我們在第四季度和第一季度看到的一般市場活動更密切相關，但現在就此給出任何方向還為時過早。

The next question is a follow-up from Jimmy Bhullar of JPMorgan Securities.

下一個問題是摩根大通證券的 Jimmy Bhullar 的跟進。

Just a question for Fred on the implications of the May reclassification of COVID equivalent to influenza. What do you think the financial implications are? Because your margins in Japan have already been pretty good actually.

只是想問弗雷德 5 月將 COVID 重新分類為流感的影響。您認為財務影響是什麼？因為你們在日本的利潤率其實已經很不錯了。

Well, really, the reclassification to 5, the Class 5 influenza, is really more related to overall business activity, in other words. And you're starting to see it here in Japan. I would just tell you from a personal perspective, when I first got here, people inside office buildings, outside office buildings, in meetings, out of meetings, at restaurants, doing daily activities, you were talking about 3% to 5% of people not wearing a mask. That now has clearly freed up. And in fact, the Japanese government has been encouraging companies and hotel operators and office building managers to adjust their policies in accordance to guidelines from the Ministry of Health here in Japan, and companies are taking that to heart. And so you're starting to see less and less mask wearing, although still a considerable level of mask wearing. And so I wouldn't call it back to normal but clearly has improved. And we think with that, there's improved face-to-face activity and improved economic activity overall.

嗯，真的，換句話說，重新分類為 5 級，即 5 級流感，確實與整體商業活動更相關。你開始在日本看到它。我只想從個人角度告訴你，當我剛到這裡時，辦公樓內、辦公樓外、會議中、會議外、餐廳、日常活動中的人，你說的是 3% 到 5% 的人沒有戴口罩。那現在顯然已經釋放了。事實上，日本政府一直在鼓勵企業、酒店經營者和寫字樓管理者根據日本衛生部的指導方針調整政策，企業也將這一點牢記在心。所以你開始看到戴口罩的人越來越少，儘管戴口罩的程度仍然很高。所以我不會把它恢復正常，但顯然已經有所改善。我們認為，面對面活動有所改善，整體經濟活動有所改善。

So we are seeing that, and that's really what we would point to. It's not anything related to, for example, benefit ratios and margins from that perspective. The whole deemed hospitalization issue is behind us. We've seen claims come back to their normal levels. Our operating platforms here in Japan are back to normal response times and volumes in the claims departments and call centers. And so we're through that episode. Maybe that answers your question.

所以我們看到了這一點，而這正是我們要指出的。從這個角度來看，這與收益比率和利潤率無關。整個被視為住院的問題已經過去了。我們已經看到索賠恢復到正常水平。我們在日本的運營平台恢復了理賠部門和呼叫中心的正常響應時間和響應量。所以我們完成了那一集。也許這回答了你的問題。

Yes. So obviously, more of an implication for potential sales activity than...

是的。很明顯，更多的是對潛在銷售活動的影響，而不是……

That's right. Gradual, but we certainly hope that's the case. Yes.

這是正確的。循序漸進，但我們當然希望如此。是的。

And then for Max, the stress that you're seeing in your investment portfolio, specifically in CRE, is that causing you to reevaluate your capital plans because you did buy back a decent amount of stock, and your overall capital levels, both in Japan and the U.S. are pretty healthy.

然後對於 Max，您在投資組合中看到的壓力，特別是在 CRE 中，導致您重新評估您的資本計劃，因為您確實回購了相當數量的股票，以及您在日本的總體資本水平美國非常健康。

So obviously, we factor that into our capital plan. And obviously, the way we sort of think about buybacks, dividends, et cetera, it's all a combination of our current capital levels, our cash flow generation, any stresses that we see on the asset side of the balance sheet and the overall economy and the outlook for our business. And that all then boils down into the actions that we take. And we bought back $700 million of our own stock in the first quarter. And I do believe that, that is the most that the company has ever done in the history of the company. And I hope you should see that as a reflection of our view of both our business cash flow generation capital levels and any thoughts that we have around sort of future stress on the asset side of the balance sheet.

很明顯，我們將其納入我們的資本計劃。顯然，我們對回購、股息等的思考方式，都是我們目前的資本水平、我們的現金流生成、我們在資產負債表的資產方面看到的任何壓力以及整體經濟和我們業務的前景。然後所有這些都歸結為我們採取的行動。我們在第一季度回購了 7 億美元的自有股票。我確實相信，這是該公司在公司歷史上做過的最多的事情。我希望你應該把這看作是我們對我們的業務現金流產生資本水平的看法以及我們對資產負債表資產方面未來壓力的任何想法的反映。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Young for any closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 David Young 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, Andrea, and thank you all for joining us this morning for our call. Please reach out to the Investor and Rating Agency Relations team if you have any questions. And we look forward to speaking with you soon, and wish you all continued good health. Have a good one.

謝謝你，安德里亞，感謝大家今天早上加入我們的電話會議。如果您有任何問題，請聯繫投資者和評級機構關係團隊。我們期待盡快與您交談，並祝大家身體健康。祝你有個好的一天。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation, and you may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講，您現在可以斷開連接了。