American Financial Group, Inc. (AFG) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Financial Group 2023 Second Quarter Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

各位好，感謝您稍候。歡迎參加 American Financial Group 2023 年第二季業績電話會議。（接線員指示）請注意，今天的會議將被錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Diane Weidner, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的講者——投資人關係副總裁 Diane Weidner。請開始。

Good morning and welcome to American Financial Group's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Results Conference Call. we released our 2023 second quarter results yesterday afternoon. Our press release, investor supplement and webcast presentation are posted on AFG's website under the Investor Relations section. These materials will be referenced during portions of today's call.

各位早安，歡迎參加 American Financial Group 2023 年第二季盈餘業績電話會議。我們已於昨天下午發布 2023 年第二季業績。我們的新聞稿、投資人補充資料與網路直播簡報已張貼於 AFG 官網的投資人關係專區。今天電話會議的部分內容將引用這些資料。

I'm joined this morning by Carl Lindner III and Craig Lindner, Co-CEOs of American Financial Group; and Brian Hertzman, AFG's CFO.

今天早上與我一同出席的有 American Financial Group 共同執行長 Carl Lindner III 與 Craig Lindner，以及 AFG 財務長 Brian Hertzman。

Before I turn the discussion over to Carl, I would like to draw your attention to notes on Slide 2 of our webcast. Some of the matters to be discussed today are forward-looking. These forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results and/or financial condition to differ materially from these statements. A detailed description of these risks and uncertainties can be found in AFG's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are also available on our website.

在我把討論交給 Carl 之前，我想請各位留意我們網路直播第 2 張投影片上的說明。今天將討論的部分事項屬於前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及若干風險與不確定性，可能導致實際結果及／或財務狀況與這些陳述存在重大差異。關於這些風險與不確定性的詳細說明，請參閱 AFG 向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，亦可於我們網站查閱。

We may include references to core net operating earnings, a non-GAAP financial measure, in our remarks or responses to questions. A reconciliation of net earnings attributable to shareholders to core net operating earnings is included in our earnings release.

我們在發言或回答問題時，可能會提及核心淨營運盈餘（core net operating earnings）這一非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。股東應占淨利與核心淨營運盈餘之間的調節表已包含於我們的盈餘新聞稿中。

If you are reading a transcript of this call, please note that it may not be authorized or reviewed for accuracy, and as a result, it may contain factual or transcription errors that could materially alter the intent or meaning of our statements.

若您閱讀本次電話會議的逐字稿，請注意該逐字稿可能未經授權或審閱以確保正確性，因此可能包含事實或轉錄錯誤，並可能對我們陳述的意圖或含義造成重大影響。

Now I'm pleased to turn the call over to Carl Lindner III to discuss our results.

現在我很高興把電話會議交給 Carl Lindner III，請他說明我們的業績。

Good morning. We're pleased to share highlights of AFG's 2023 second quarter, after which, Craig, Brian and I will be happy to respond to your questions.

各位早安。我們很高興分享 AFG 2023 年第二季的重點摘要。之後，Craig、Brian 與我將很樂意回答各位的問題。

We reported an annualized second quarter core operating return on equity of 18%, which excludes accumulated other comprehensive income, alongside double-digit premium growth, a strong result in the quarter with elevated industry catastrophe activity. The higher interest rate environment contributed to meaningfully higher year-over-year investment income, and we continue to be pleased with the performance of our alternative investment portfolio where returns exceeded our expectations during the quarter.

我們公布第二季年化核心營運股東權益報酬率（ROE）為 18%，該數字排除累積其他綜合損益（AOCI）。在產業巨災活動偏高的季度中，我們仍實現兩位數保費成長並取得強勁表現。較高的利率環境帶動投資收益較去年同期顯著提升；同時，我們對另類投資組合的表現持續感到滿意，該組合於本季的報酬超出我們的預期。

Our entrepreneurial, opportunistic culture and disciplined operating philosophy continue to serve us well in a favorable property and casualty market and a dynamic economic environment. Craig and I thank God, our talented management team, and our employees for helping us to achieve these results.

我們具企業家精神、善於把握機會的文化，以及嚴謹的經營理念，持續在有利的產險市場與多變的經濟環境中發揮效益。Craig 與我感謝上帝，也感謝我們優秀的管理團隊與全體員工協助我們達成這些成果。

I'll now turn the discussion over to Craig to walk us through AFG's second quarter results, investment performance and our overall financial position at June 30.

接下來我把討論交給 Craig，請他帶領我們回顧 AFG 第二季業績、投資表現，以及截至 6 月 30 日的整體財務狀況。

Thanks, Carl. As I begin my remarks, I'd like to recognize and congratulate John Berding, who was elected President of AFG in late June. John has been a trusted business adviser for over 35 years. His talents have been particularly valuable through his exceptional vision and management of the company's investment portfolio, which has significantly outperformed over time.

謝謝你，Carl。在開始我的發言之前，我想特別表揚並恭賀 John Berding，他於 6 月下旬當選為 AFG 總裁。John 擔任值得信賴的商業顧問已逾 35 年。他的才能尤其體現在對公司投資組合的卓越遠見與管理上，該投資組合長期以來的表現顯著優於同業。

Please turn to Slides 3 and 4 for a summary of earnings information for the quarter. AFG reported core net operating earnings of $2.38 per share in the 2023 second quarter. The year-over-year decrease was due primarily to the impact of elevated catastrophe losses and lower favorable prior year reserve development on underwriting profit in our Specialty Property and Casualty insurance operations, when compared to the record P&C results reported in the second quarter of 2022. These items were partially offset by higher net investment income in the 2023 second quarter.

請翻到第 3 與第 4 張投影片，以查看本季盈餘資訊摘要。AFG 於 2023 年第二季的核心淨營運盈餘為每股 2.38 美元。與去年同期相比的下降，主要是因巨災損失偏高，以及相較於 2022 年第二季創紀錄的產險（P&C）業績，本期在專業產物險保險業務的承保利潤中，來自前期年度準備金有利發展（favorable prior year reserve development）的貢獻較低。上述因素部分被 2023 年第二季較高的淨投資收益所抵銷。

Now I'd like to turn to an overview of AFG's investment performance, financial position and share a few comments about AFG's capital and liquidity. The details surrounding our $14.5 billion investment portfolio are presented on Slides 5 and 6. Pretax unrealized losses on AFG's fixed maturity portfolio were $587 million at the end of the second quarter compared to pretax unrealized losses of $630 million at the end of 2022. In the current interest rate environment, we're able to invest in high-quality, medium duration fixed maturity securities at yields of approximately 5.5%, which compares favorably to the 4.62% yield earned on fixed maturities at our P&C portfolio during the second quarter of 2023.

接下來我將概述 AFG 的投資表現與財務狀況，並就資本與流動性分享幾點看法。我們 145 億美元投資組合的相關細節列於第 5 與第 6 張投影片。截至第二季末，AFG 固定到期（fixed maturity）投資組合的稅前未實現損失為 5.87 億美元，較 2022 年底的稅前未實現損失 6.30 億美元有所改善。在目前利率環境下，我們能以約 5.5% 的殖利率投資於高品質、中等存續期間的固定到期證券；相較之下，我們產險投資組合於 2023 年第二季固定到期資產的收益率為 4.62%，前者具相對優勢。

We expect the yield earned on our P&C fixed maturity portfolio to increase by about 10 to 20 basis points by the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the 4.62% earned in the second quarter of 2023. This yield compares very favorably to the 3.63% earned for the full year in 2022.

我們預期到 2023 年第四季，我們產險固定到期投資組合的收益率將較 2023 年第二季的 4.62% 提升約 10 至 20 個基點。此收益率相較於 2022 全年的 3.63% 表現非常有利。

Looking at results for the quarter. Property & casualty net investment income was 22% higher than the comparable 2022 period. These results included an annualized return on alternative investments in the second quarter of 2023 of 9.6% compared to a 12.4% return for the 2022 second quarter. The return on alternative investments in the second quarter of 2023 was the result of solid performance in both the multifamily housing and the private equity portfolios. The average annual yield on AFG's alternative investments over the past 5 years ended December 31, 2022, was approximately 14%.

再看本季的結果。產險淨投資收益較 2022 年同期高出 22%。其中包含 2023 年第二季另類投資的年化報酬率為 9.6%，相較於 2022 年第二季的 12.4%。2023 年第二季另類投資報酬主要來自多戶住宅（multifamily housing）與私募股權（private equity）投資組合的穩健表現。截至 2022 年 12 月 31 日止過去 5 年，AFG 另類投資的平均年化收益率約為 14%。

Our guidance for 2023 reflects a return of approximately 9% on our $2.3 billion portfolio of alternative investments. Excluding the impact of alternative investments, net investment income at our P&C insurance operations for the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, increased 45% year-over-year as a result of the impact of rising interest rates and higher balances of invested assets.

我們對 2023 年的指引反映：在 23 億美元的另類投資組合上，預期報酬約為 9%。若排除另類投資的影響，截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日止 3 個月，我們產險保險業務的淨投資收益年增 45%，主要受利率上升與可投資資產餘額增加所帶動。

Please turn to Slide 7, where you'll find a summary of AFG's financial position at June 30, 2023. Our excess capital was approximately $700 million at June 30, 2023, which is net of the $235 million in cash deployed to fund the CRS acquisition, which closed on July 3rd and includes parent company cash and investments of approximately $550 million. Our acquisition of CRS provide an attractive opportunity to deploy our excess capital to expand our specialty niche businesses.

請翻到第 7 張投影片，您將看到 AFG 截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日的財務狀況摘要。截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日，我們的超額資本約為 7 億美元，該數字已扣除為 CRS 收購案所動用的 2.35 億美元現金（該交易於 7 月 3 日完成），並包含母公司約 5.50 億美元的現金與投資。我們收購 CRS 提供了一個具吸引力的機會，得以運用超額資本來擴展我們的專業利基業務。

During the quarter, we returned $97 million to our shareholders through the payment of our regular $0.63 per share quarterly dividend and $43 million in share repurchases. Importantly, AFG has paid $42 per share in special dividends since the end of 2020, representing $3.6 billion returned to shareholders over this period. Carl and I consider these special dividends an important component of total shareholder return.

本季我們透過支付每股 0.63 美元的例行季度股利，以及回購股票 4,300 萬美元，合計向股東返還 9,700 萬美元。更重要的是，自 2020 年底以來，AFG 已支付每股 42 美元的特別股利，代表在此期間向股東返還 36 億美元。Carl 與我認為，這些特別股利是股東總報酬的重要組成部分。

We expect our operations to continue to generate significant excess capital throughout the remainder of 2023 to the point that we could deploy more than $500 million of excess capital for share repurchases or additional special dividends through the end of 2023, which is in addition to the capital returned to shareholders in the first half of 2023. As you may recall, the portion of our excess capital that we view as available for special dividends and share repurchases is limited by our internal debt-to-cap target of 30%, and that capital number is impacted by unrealized gains and losses on fixed maturities. However, it's important to note that each dollar of debt repurchased frees up approximately $2 of excess capital for distribution to shareholders.

我們預期在 2023 年剩餘期間，我們的營運將持續產生可觀的超額資本；到 2023 年底，我們可能可動用超過 5 億美元的超額資本用於股票回購或額外特別股利，且此金額是在 2023 年上半年已返還股東的資本之外。如各位所知，我們認為可用於特別股利與股票回購的超額資本部分，會受到我們內部負債對資本比（debt-to-cap）30% 目標的限制，而該資本數字亦會受到固定到期資產未實現損益的影響。不過需要強調的是，每回購 1 美元的債務，約可釋放 2 美元的超額資本以分配給股東。

For the 3 months ended June 30, 2023, AFG's growth in book value per share plus dividends was 3.1% and year-to-date, growth in book value per share plus dividends was 10%. Excluding unrealized losses related to fixed maturities, we achieved growth in adjusted book value per share plus dividends of 4.2% during the second quarter and 8.3% year-to-date.

截至 2023 年 6 月 30 日止 3 個月，AFG 每股帳面價值加計股利的成長為 3.1%；年初至今，每股帳面價值加計股利的成長為 10%。若排除與固定到期資產相關的未實現損失，我們於第二季達成調整後每股帳面價值加計股利成長 4.2%，年初至今成長 8.3%。

I'll now turn the call back over to Carl to discuss the results of our P&C operations and our expectations for 2023.

接下來我把電話會議交回給 Carl，請他說明我們產險（P&C）業務的結果以及對 2023 年的展望。

Before turning to our Specialty Property and Casualty results, I'd like to officially welcome Brian Young and the Crop Risk Services team to AFG and the Great American Insurance Group family. This team's expertise and contributions will strengthen our ability to serve the unique needs of our crop policyholders. CRS is clearly a strategic fit within our Crop Division and solidifies Great American as the fifth largest provider of multi-peril crop insurance in the United States and the largest U.S.-owned participant in the United States multi-peril crop insurance program, and serves as an example of our nimbleness and efficiency in executing a transaction of this nature.

在談到我們的專業產物險業績之前，我想正式歡迎 Brian Young 與 Crop Risk Services 團隊加入 AFG 與 Great American Insurance Group 大家庭。該團隊的專業與貢獻將強化我們服務農作物保單持有人獨特需求的能力。CRS 顯然與我們的農作物事業部具有策略契合度，並鞏固 Great American 成為美國多風險農作物保險（multi-peril crop insurance）第五大提供者，以及美國多風險農作物保險計畫中規模最大、由美國本土持有的參與者；同時也展現我們在執行此類交易時的靈活性與效率。

Now if you'd please turn to Slides 8 and 9 of the webcast, which include an overview of our second quarter results. As you'll see on Slide 8, gross and net written premiums were up 12% and 10%, respectively, in the 2023 second quarter compared to the prior year quarter. Year-over-year premium growth was reported within each of the Specialty Property and Casualty groups as a result of a combination of new business opportunities, increased exposures, and a good renewal rate environment. Second quarter 2023 combined ratio was 91.9%, 6.1 points higher than the exceptionally strong underwriting results reported in the prior year period.

現在請您翻到網路直播的第 8 與第 9 張投影片，其中包含我們第二季業績的概覽。如您在第 8 張投影片所見，2023 年第二季的毛簽保費與淨簽保費分別較去年同期成長 12% 與 10%。在專業財產與意外險兩大事業群中，保費年增皆有呈現成長，主要來自新業務機會、承保曝險增加，以及良好的續保費率環境。2023 年第二季綜合比率為 91.9%，較去年同期極為強勁的核保結果高出 6.1 個百分點。

Catastrophe losses added 3.5 points to the 2023 second quarter combined ratio, an increase of 2 points from the prior year period. Favorable prior year reserve development in the second quarter of 2023 was 4 points, a decrease of about 2.2 points from the favorable impact of 6.2 points reported in the prior year quarter. Our catastrophe loss experience was consistent with overall industry experience, but losses arising from an increased frequency of storms during the quarter.

巨災損失使 2023 年第二季綜合比率增加 3.5 個百分點，較去年同期增加 2 個百分點。2023 年第二季有利的前期年度準備金發展為 4 個百分點，較去年同期所報告的 6.2 個百分點有利影響減少約 2.2 個百分點。我們的巨災損失經驗與整體產業經驗一致，但本季因風暴發生頻率增加而產生損失。

Average renewal pricing across our Property and Casualty Group, excluding workers' comp, was up approximately 5% for the quarter and up approximately 4% overall, consistent with pricing increases achieved in the first quarter. This is our 28th consecutive quarter to report overall renewal rate increases, and we continue to meet or exceed target returns in nearly all of our Specialty Property and Casualty businesses in the second quarter of 2023.

我們財產與意外險事業群（不含勞工補償險）的平均續保定價本季約上升 5%，整體約上升 4%，與第一季達成的漲價幅度一致。這是我們連續第 28 個季度報告整體續保費率上升；在 2023 年第二季，我們幾乎所有專業財產與意外險業務皆持續達到或超過目標報酬。

Now I'd like to turn to Slide 9 to review a few highlights from each of our Specialty Property and Casualty business groups. The Property and Transportation Group reported an underwriting profit of $32 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $39 million in the second quarter of 2022. Higher year-over-year profitability in our Property & Inland Marine and Ocean Marine businesses was more than offset by lower favorable prior year development in our transportation businesses.

現在我想請各位看第 9 張投影片，回顧我們各專業財產與意外險業務群的幾項重點。財產與運輸事業群於 2023 年第二季的核保利潤為 3,200 萬美元，較 2022 年第二季的 3,900 萬美元下降。我們的財產與內陸海運（Property & Inland Marine）以及海運（Ocean Marine）業務年增獲利較高，但被運輸業務較低的前期年度有利發展所抵銷。

Catastrophe losses in this group were a manageable $15 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $19 million in the comparable 2022 period. Second quarter 2023 gross and net written premiums in this group were 10% and 6% higher, respectively, than the comparable prior year period. Factors contributing to the year-over-year growth included the impact of increased rates and exposures in our transportation businesses and earlier planting of corn and soybeans in our crop insurance business. Nearly all the businesses in this group reported growth in gross and net written premium during the quarter.

該事業群於 2023 年第二季的巨災損失為可控的 1,500 萬美元，較 2022 年同期的 1,900 萬美元下降。2023 年第二季該事業群的毛簽保費與淨簽保費分別較去年同期增加 10% 與 6%。促成年增成長的因素包括：我們運輸業務費率與曝險上升的影響，以及作物保險業務中玉米與黃豆較早播種。該事業群幾乎所有業務在本季皆呈現毛簽保費與淨簽保費成長。

We continue to stay focused on rate adequacy, particularly in our Property business as we consider higher reinsurance costs and higher property catastrophe loss attachment points. Overall renewal rates in this group increased 6% on average in the second quarter, consistent with pricing achieved in this group for the first quarter of 2023.

我們持續聚焦於費率充足性，特別是在財產險業務方面，因我們正考量較高的再保成本以及較高的財產巨災損失起賠點（attachment points）。該事業群第二季整體續保費率平均上升 6%，與 2023 年第一季在該事業群達成的定價水準一致。

So we are well into the growing season in our crop insurance operations. Corn and soybean crop development is ahead of last year, with crop conditions slightly worse than last year at this time, but still tracking close to trend line yields overall. Commodity pricing is in acceptable ranges with corn and soybeans down around 15% and 4%, respectively, when compared to spring discovery pricing.

因此，我們的作物保險營運已進入生長季。玉米與黃豆的作物生長進度領先去年；目前作物狀況略差於去年同期，但整體仍大致貼近趨勢線產量。大宗商品價格仍在可接受區間；與春季發現價格（spring discovery pricing）相比，玉米與黃豆價格分別下跌約 15% 與 4%。

Our integration of the Crop Risk Services business is going well. As a reminder, the majority of the CRS crop business written for the 2023 calendar year was recorded on AIG's books. The small amount of premiums generated for AFG in the second half of 2023 are included in our premium guidance. With what we know at this time, our guidance continues to reflect the expectation of an average crop year. Although adequate moisture over the next 6 weeks will be very important.

我們對 Crop Risk Services（CRS）業務的整合進展順利。提醒各位，2023 日曆年度所承作的 CRS 作物業務大多記錄在 AIG 的帳上。2023 年下半年為 AFG 產生的少量保費已納入我們的保費指引。就目前所知，我們的指引仍反映對平均作物年度的預期，儘管未來 6 週充足的水分將非常重要。

Specialty Casualty Group reported an underwriting profit of $95 million in the 2023 second quarter compared to $130 million in the comparable 2022 period. Lower levels of favorable prior year reserve development in our workers' compensation businesses and adverse development in our public entity business were partially offset by higher levels of favorable prior year reserve development in our executive liability business. Underwriting profitability in our workers' comp businesses overall continues to be excellent.

專業意外險事業群於 2023 年第二季的核保利潤為 9,500 萬美元，較 2022 年同期的 1.30 億美元下降。我們勞工補償險業務較低的前期年度有利準備金發展，以及公共實體（public entity）業務的不利發展，部分被高階主管責任險（executive liability）業務較高的前期年度有利準備金發展所抵銷。我們勞工補償險業務整體的核保獲利能力仍然非常出色。

The businesses in the Specialty Casualty Group achieved a very strong 86.6% calendar year combined ratio overall in the second quarter, an increase of 6.5 points over the exceptionally strong 80.1% achieved in the comparable prior year period. Second quarter 2023 gross and net written premiums both increased 7% when compared to the same prior year period. Three-fourths of the businesses in this group reported year-over-year growth.

專業意外險事業群各業務在第二季整體達成非常強勁的 86.6% 日曆年度綜合比率，較去年同期極為強勁的 80.1% 上升 6.5 個百分點。2023 年第二季毛簽保費與淨簽保費相較去年同期皆增加 7%。該事業群中有四分之三的業務呈現年增成長。

The primary factors contributing to the higher premiums included increased exposures and higher renewal rates in our excess and surplus lines business, new business opportunities, strong policy retention and rate increases in several of our targeted market businesses, and payroll growth in our workers' comp businesses. This growth was partially offset by lower year-over-year premiums in our executive liability business as we maintain underwriting discipline in a challenging competitive environment, particularly in public D&O. Renewal pricing for this group, excluding our workers' comp businesses, was up about 6% in the second quarter and was up 3% overall.

推升保費的主要因素包括：我們超額與剩餘線（excess and surplus lines）業務的曝險增加與續保費率上升、新業務機會、在多個目標市場業務中強勁的保單續保留存與費率上調，以及勞工補償險業務的薪資總額成長。上述成長部分被高階主管責任險業務年增保費下降所抵銷，因我們在具挑戰性的競爭環境中維持核保紀律，尤其是在公共 D&O。該事業群的續保定價（不含勞工補償險業務）在第二季上升約 6%，整體上升 3%。

Specialty Financial Group reported an underwriting profit of $10 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared to an underwriting profit of $37 million in the second quarter of 2022. The decrease was primarily due to higher year-over-year catastrophe losses in our financial institutions business and lower profitability in our Surety & Fidelity businesses. Catastrophe losses for this group were $19 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $3 million in the prior year quarter, contributing to a combined ratio of 95% for the second quarter of 2023, 16.6 points higher than the very strong 78.4% reported in the comparable period in 2022.

專業金融事業群於 2023 年第二季的核保利潤為 1,000 萬美元，較 2022 年第二季的 3,700 萬美元下降。下降主要由於金融機構業務的巨災損失年增較高，以及保證與忠誠保險（Surety & Fidelity）業務獲利能力較低。該事業群 2023 年第二季的巨災損失為 1,900 萬美元，較去年同期的 300 萬美元增加，使 2023 年第二季綜合比率達 95%，較 2022 年同期所報告的非常強勁 78.4% 高出 16.6 個百分點。

Second quarter 2023 gross and net written premiums were up an impressive 40% and 36%, respectively, when compared to the prior year period. All the businesses in this group reported growth during the quarter. We acted on opportunities to grow our financial institutions business as a result of general economic factors - including rising foreclosure rates - and the addition of new accounts, both of which helped fuel the year-over-year growth in the quarter. Overall renewal rates in this group were up approximately 2% for the second quarter. And while we believe rates are adequate, we continue to monitor insured values to ensure appropriate premium levels for increased exposures.

2023 年第二季毛簽保費與淨簽保費分別較去年同期大幅成長 40% 與 36%。該事業群所有業務在本季皆呈現成長。由於一般經濟因素（包括法拍率上升）以及新增帳戶，我們把握機會擴大金融機構業務，兩者共同推動本季年增成長。該事業群第二季整體續保費率約上升 2%。雖然我們認為費率水準充足，但我們仍持續監控保險標的價值，以確保在曝險增加下保費水準適切。

Now please turn to Slide 10, where you'll see a full page summary of our 2023 outlook. Overall, we continue to expect an ongoing favorable property and casualty market with opportunities from growth arising from new business opportunities, continued rate increases and exposure growth. Based on results reported in the first half of the year and expectations for the remainder of the year, we now expect AFG's core net operating earnings in 2023 to be in the range of $10.15 to $11.15 per share, a decrease of $0.85 per share at the midpoint of our previous range of $11 to $12 per share.

現在請翻到第 10 張投影片，您將看到我們 2023 年展望的整頁摘要。整體而言，我們仍預期財產與意外險市場將持續有利，並可把握由新業務機會、持續的費率上升與曝險成長所帶來的成長機會。根據上半年已報告的結果以及對下半年其餘期間的預期，我們目前預期 AFG 2023 年核心淨營業盈餘將落在每股 10.15 至 11.15 美元區間；相較於先前每股 11 至 12 美元區間的中點，本次中點下調 0.85 美元。

Our revised guidance would produce a full year 2023 core return on equity of approximately 20%. This revised guidance reflects our updated full year expectations for underwriting profit, partially offset by an increase in expected net investment income. Our guidance continues to reflect an average crop year.

我們修訂後的指引將使 2023 全年核心股東權益報酬率約為 20%。此修訂指引反映我們對全年核保利潤的最新預期，並由預期淨投資收益增加部分抵銷。我們的指引仍反映平均作物年度。

As Craig noted, we've increased our expected return on alternative investments for the full year 2023 to approximately 9% compared to 13.2% earned on these investments in 2022. Our underwriting results for the first 6 months of 2023 included elevated catastrophe losses and lower profitability in our -- in the Specialty Casualty Group, primarily due to lower favorable prior year reserve development in workers' compensation and the impact of social inflation on selected businesses.

如 Craig 所提，我們已將 2023 全年另類投資的預期報酬率提高至約 9%，相較於 2022 年這些投資實現的 13.2%。我們 2023 年前 6 個月的核保結果包含較高的巨災損失，以及我們——在專業意外險事業群的獲利能力較低，主要由於勞工補償險前期年度有利準備金發展較少，以及社會通膨（social inflation）對特定業務的影響。

Based on these results and our view that these trends will continue for the second half of the year, we now expect the 2023 combined ratio for the Specialty Property and Casualty Group overall to be between 89% and 91%, revised upward 2 points at the midpoint from our previous guidance of 87% to 89%. About half of the change in guidance is due directly to the second quarter results with the other half driven by our view that the same factors impacting second quarter results would continue for the rest of the year.

基於上述結果，以及我們認為這些趨勢將在下半年持續的看法，我們目前預期 2023 年專業財產與意外險事業群整體綜合比率將介於 89% 至 91%，相較先前 87% 至 89% 的指引，在中點上調 2 個百分點。指引變動約有一半直接源自第二季結果，另一半則來自我們認為影響第二季結果的相同因素將在今年其餘期間持續。

Our guidance for growth in net written premiums is now expected to be in the range of 5% to 8%, an increase of 2 points at the midpoint of our previous range of 3% to 6%. Growth in this range will establish a record for net written premiums for the year. Excluding crop, we expect 2023 year-over-year growth in the range of 6% to 9%.

我們對淨簽單保費成長的指引目前預期落在 5% 至 8% 的區間，較先前 3% 至 6% 的區間在中點上調 2 個百分點。此區間的成長將使本年度淨簽單保費創下紀錄。若排除農作物保險，我們預期 2023 年年增率將落在 6% 至 9% 的區間。

Now looking at each subsegment. Based on our results through the second quarter, we continue to expect a combined ratio in the range of 90% to 93% in our Property and Transportation Group. This guidance continues to assume an average crop earnings for the year. We continue to expect net written premiums for this group to be in a range of flat to up 2%. Our premium growth guidance factors in the impact of spring commodity futures pricing and related volatility on crop rates. This will negatively impact premiums and related exposure year-over-year in our crop business, most notably in the third quarter of 2023 when the majority of our annual premiums are recorded. As a result of these factors, which are offset slightly by additional premium from CRS, we now expect net written premiums in our crop insurance business to be down 4% for the full year 2023.

現在來看各個次分部。根據我們截至第二季的表現，我們仍預期財產與運輸事業群（Property and Transportation Group）的綜合比率將落在 90% 至 93% 的區間。此指引仍假設本年度農作物保險收益為平均水準。我們仍預期該事業群的淨簽單保費將介於持平至成長 2% 的區間。我們的保費成長指引已納入春季商品期貨價格及其相關波動對農作物費率的影響。這將使我們農作物業務的保費及相關曝險較去年同期下滑，最明顯將出現在 2023 年第三季，因為我們年度大部分保費會在該季入帳。由於上述因素（並由 CRS 帶來的額外保費略為抵銷），我們目前預期 2023 全年農作物保險業務的淨簽單保費將下滑 4%。

Excluding crop, growth in net written premiums in this group is expected to be in the range of 2% to 3%, slightly lower than our original expectations. Growth for the year will be tempered by the non-renewal of about $50 million in premiums related to underperforming transportation accounts and growth in our alternative risk transfer business, which has higher premium cessions.

若排除農作物保險，該事業群的淨簽單保費成長預期落在 2% 至 3% 的區間，略低於我們原先的預期。全年成長將受到約 5,000 萬美元與表現不佳的運輸帳戶相關保費不續保，以及我們替代性風險移轉業務成長（其保費分出比例較高）的影響而趨緩。

Now we now expect our Specialty Casualty Group to produce a combined ratio in the range of 85% to 88%, an increase of 2.5 points at the midpoint of our previous guidance, reflecting lower levels of favorable prior year development, primarily related to workers' compensation in the first half of the year, and more conservative loss picks with regard to our social inflation exposed businesses.

我們目前預期專業責任事業群（Specialty Casualty Group）的綜合比率將落在 85% 至 88% 的區間，較先前指引在中點上調 2.5 個百分點，反映較低水準的前期年度有利發展（主要與上半年勞工補償相關），以及針對我們受社會通膨影響較大的業務採取更保守的損失估計。

Our guidance continues to assume strong profitability in our workers' compensation businesses overall but at a higher calendar year combined ratio when compared to the exceptional results reported in the prior year. We continue to expect net written premiums to be 5% to 9% higher than 2022 results. Excluding workers' comp, we now expect premiums in this group to grow in the range of 5% to 9%, a decrease of 2 points at the midpoint of our previous guidance, reflecting a continued challenging competitive environment in our executive liability business.

我們的指引仍假設整體勞工補償業務維持強勁獲利，但相較於前一年所報告的卓越成果，日曆年度綜合比率將較高。我們仍預期淨簽單保費將較 2022 年結果高出 5% 至 9%。若排除勞工補償，我們目前預期該事業群保費成長將落在 5% 至 9% 的區間，較先前指引在中點下調 2 個百分點，反映我們高階主管責任險（executive liability）業務持續面臨具挑戰性的競爭環境。

We now estimate the Specialty Financial Group's combined ratio to be in the range of 89% to 93%, up 4 points from our previous range of 85% to 89%, reflecting elevated catastrophe losses in the second quarter and the expectation of higher catastrophe losses in the second half of 2023 as a result of the strong growth in our financial institutions business through the first half of the year. Growth in net written premiums for this group is expected to be in the range of 23% to 27%, up significantly from our previous range of 6% to 10% as a result of the opportunistic growth in our financial institutions business.

我們目前估計專業金融事業群（Specialty Financial Group）的綜合比率將落在 89% 至 93% 的區間，較先前 85% 至 89% 的區間上調 4 個百分點，反映第二季巨災損失偏高，以及由於我們金融機構業務在上半年強勁成長，預期 2023 年下半年巨災損失將更高。該事業群的淨簽單保費成長預期落在 23% 至 27% 的區間，較先前 6% 至 10% 的區間大幅上調，係因我們在金融機構業務上的機會性成長所致。

Based on results through the first 6 months of the year, we continue to expect renewal rates overall to increase between 3% and 5% in our Specialty Property and Casualty operations overall. Excluding workers' compensation, we continue to expect renewal rate increases to be in the range of 4% to 6%.

根據今年前 6 個月的結果，我們仍預期專業財產與意外險（Specialty Property and Casualty）整體續保費率將上調 3% 至 5%。若排除勞工補償，我們仍預期續保費率上調幅度將落在 4% 至 6% 的區間。

Craig and I are proud of our proven long-term track record of value creation, and we believe that our entrepreneurial opportunistic culture, combined with our strong balance sheet and financial flexibility, position us well for the remainder of 2023.

Craig 和我對我們經證實的長期價值創造紀錄深感自豪，我們相信，我們具企業家精神且善於把握機會的文化，結合強健的資產負債表與財務彈性，使我們在 2023 年剩餘期間具備良好定位。

We now open the lines for the Q&A portion of today's call, and we'd be happy to respond to your questions.

我們現在開放今天電話會議的問答環節，也很樂意回覆各位的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Paul Newsome with Piper Sandler.

（接線員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Paul Newsome。

Good morning. I was hoping for a little bit more details on the Specialty Financial/financial institutions group growth? And maybe why -- well, first of all, I think that's force-placement insurance, right? That's what everyone else calls it. Please correct me if I'm wrong. And can you tell me why...

早安。我希望能多了解一些關於專業金融／金融機構事業群成長的細節？以及也許為什麼——嗯，首先，我認為那是強制安置保險（force-placement insurance），對吧？其他人都是這麼稱呼的。如果我說錯請糾正我。你能告訴我為什麼……

Yes. Lender-placed property.

是的。貸方安置的財產保險（lender-placed property）。

Yes. So why is that an opportunity in today's market. Home insurance in general is pretty tough business right now. What makes that so attractive today?

是的。所以為什麼那在當前市場是一個機會？一般而言，房屋保險現在是相當艱難的生意。是什麼讓它在今天如此有吸引力？

Well, historically, our business has had great returns over a long period of time. And I think what's changed is rising foreclosure rates. And as you said, some of the opportunity to -- because of market disruption to write new accounts. So it's been a great business, high returning -- high return on equity business for us for forever. And note, we just had a lot of -- it was heavy -- had a heavy cat quarter. In the 6 months, the catastrophes were $17 million to $18 million higher than last year, for instance.

嗯，從歷史上看，我們這項業務在很長一段時間內都有很好的報酬。我認為改變之處在於法拍率上升。正如你所說，也有一些機會——因為市場動盪而能承作新的帳戶。所以這一直是很棒的業務，對我們而言是高報酬——高股東權益報酬率的業務，長久以來都是如此。另外請注意，我們剛經歷了一個巨災偏重的季度。在前 6 個月，巨災損失例如就比去年高出 1,700 萬到 1,800 萬美元。

Do you have any thoughts on keeping up with claim cost inflation in that business, given that property in general has been a tough place to be to keep up with the underlying inflation issues? Are you doing things in there that might kind of offset those issues?

你對於在該業務中跟上理賠成本通膨有什麼看法嗎？鑑於一般財產險要跟上底層通膨問題一直很不容易。你們是否在那裡採取一些措施來抵銷這些問題？

For sure. Not -- pricing is just one component. I think on that business, like we're focused on getting proper insured values. As inflation has taken values up, that's definitely part of our strategy.

當然。有——定價只是其中一個面向。我認為在那項業務上，我們專注於取得適當的保險價值（insured values）。隨著通膨推升價值，這絕對是我們策略的一部分。

Great. Maybe turning to the workers' comp business, obviously, historically a really good business. Can you talk about sort of what maybe happened from the trend change there that might have reduced the favorable reserve development? Are we just not getting as much frequency improvement as we've had in the last many years?

很好。再轉到勞工補償業務，顯然歷來是一項非常好的業務。你能談談那裡趨勢變化可能發生了什麼，導致有利準備金發展減少嗎？我們是不是不像過去很多年那樣，頻率改善幅度那麼大了？

Yes. I mean the reality is, with rates -- I mean, to start with, our overall calendar year underwriting results through 6 months and last year, outstanding. And we expect 2023 to continue to be. It's just not going to -- we're not going to have combined ratios at the same exceptional levels as in the past. On an accident year basis, we're still projecting a good overall accident year underwriting profit. We had that last year.

是的。我的意思是，現實是，隨著費率——我是說，先從我們截至 6 個月以及去年整體日曆年度承保結果來看，都非常出色。我們也預期 2023 年會持續如此。只是它不會——我們的綜合比率不會像過去那樣維持同等卓越的水準。以事故年度（accident year）基礎來看，我們仍預估整體事故年度承保利潤良好。去年也是如此。

We're still projecting a healthy accident year underwriting profit through 6 months and for 2023. Again, just not -- the underwriting margins just won't be at the same outstanding levels as what they've been in the past when -- even though our loss costs continue to be pretty benign and loss ratio trends are in check with rates declining over time for us and the industry, there's just not going to be the same levels of underwriting margin there.

我們仍預估截至 6 個月以及 2023 全年都會有健康的事故年度承保利潤。同樣地，只是——承保利差不會像過去那樣出色；即便我們的損失成本仍相當溫和，且在我們與整個產業費率隨時間下降的情況下，損失率趨勢仍受控，但承保利差不會有同樣的水準。

Right. I'm just wondering if there was a -- obviously, the guidance changed, so there must have been sort of some trend change, I guess, that was different than what you saw at the beginning of the year. That's what I was asking about.

了解。我只是想知道是否有——顯然指引改變了，所以我猜一定有某種趨勢變化，和你們年初看到的不同。我問的就是這個。

Hi Paul, this is Brian. So in recent years, we've just continued to see claims being settled at lower than our initial expectation and having lots of favorable development coming out of workers' comp. This year -- in the first half of this year, as we reacted to claims settlements, we're seeing things still come in better than our initial expectations, just not as much better as before. So it's still a very good result. It's just not -- it's not developing as favorably as it had in some of the more recent years. So still really good results. Just when we see that in the first half of the year knowing that we'd take a prudent approach to things, we have -- are reacting to that, settling closer to our established reserves and not releasing as much.

Paul 你好，我是 Brian。近幾年來，我們持續看到理賠結案金額低於我們最初的預期，因此勞工補償出現大量有利發展。今年——在今年上半年，當我們因應理賠結案情況時，我們看到結果仍優於最初預期，只是沒有以前那麼多的優於預期。因此仍是非常好的結果。只是——它的有利發展程度不如近幾年那麼強。所以結果仍然非常好。只是當我們在上半年看到這種情況，並知道我們會採取審慎作法時，我們就——會對此作出反應，結案金額更接近我們既定的準備金水準，而不會釋放那麼多準備金。

I'll let other folks ask questions. Appreciate the help as always.

我讓其他人提問。感謝你一如既往的協助。

Our next question comes from Michael Zaremski with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

Hi, great, good afternoon. Just as a -- firstly, as a follow-up to Paul's question and Brian's -- your answer, so is it -- on the work comp, is it just a small change in medical trend line, not on the indemnity side? Is that -- just to kind of put a period in that conversation.

嗨，很好，午安。作為——首先，延續 Paul 的問題以及 Brian 你的回答，所以——在勞工補償方面，是否只是醫療趨勢線的小幅變化，而不是在補償金（indemnity）那一側？這樣——只是想為那段對話畫下句點。

This is Brian. On the medical cost side, we are watching for that. We haven't experienced a big uptick in expense, but we are mindful of that, and we are considering that as we look at setting our current accident year and looking at reserve releases. So while we haven't experienced a big uptick in medical costs, we know that, that may be coming.

我是 Brian。在醫療成本方面，我們正在密切關注。我們尚未經歷費用大幅上升，但我們對此保持警覺，並在設定本年度事故年度（accident year）以及評估準備金釋放時將其納入考量。因此，雖然我們尚未看到醫療成本大幅上升，但我們知道那可能即將到來。

Okay. Got it. And maybe just keeping on just loss cost inflation levels. And appreciate you guys have already given us a lot of good detail on the -- in the prepared remarks and in the earnings release, but maybe we can kind of further unpack the social inflation aspect that you've brought up. Is it touching more so commercial auto? Or -- it sounds like a number of lines were cited. And is it just kind of a small inching up versus expectations? Or is it -- I don't know if it's certain vintages you'd like to call out? Or just maybe we can unpack that conversation a bit more.

好的。了解。那也許再延伸到損失成本通膨的水準。我很感謝你們在事先準備的發言以及財報新聞稿中，已經提供了很多很好的細節，但也許我們可以再進一步拆解你們提到的社會通膨（social inflation）面向。它比較多影響商業車險嗎？或者——聽起來你們提到了好幾個險種。這只是相較於預期的小幅上升嗎？還是——我不確定是否有特定的承保年度（vintages）你們想特別指出？或是我們可以把這段討論再多拆解一些。

Sure. Commercial auto, the social inflation impacts, nothing new. We've been raising rates, particularly in the commercial auto liability side of commercial auto for 10 years or so. So clearly, social inflation continues to impact commercial auto. We haven't really changed the guidance for our Property and Transportation. We're happy. We're pleased with the underwriting performance of our overall commercial auto through 6 months in 2022. And with continued price increases that we're getting, we're trying to stay that way.

當然。商業車險方面，社會通膨的影響並不新鮮。我們一直在調升費率，特別是在商業車險中的責任險部分，已經大概 10 年了。所以很明顯，社會通膨仍持續影響商業車險。我們並沒有真正改變對我們財產與運輸（Property and Transportation）業務的指引。我們對 2022 年截至 6 個月的整體商業車險核保表現感到滿意。隨著我們持續取得的價格上調，我們也努力維持這樣的狀態。

That said, commercial auto liability is a focus where -- probably where a lot of the social inflation hits. It's not where we want it to be. We're probably still at [101%, 102%] accident year combined ratio as we look at this year. So I mean we're continuing to take strong rate. Commercial auto year-to-date, I think we've taken another 10% in rate, just to give you a perspective because of the ongoing social inflation in that.

話雖如此，商業車險責任險仍是重點關注——社會通膨大多衝擊的可能就是這一塊。它的表現還不是我們希望的水準。就今年來看，我們的事故年度綜合率大概仍在 [101%、102%]。所以我們持續採取強勢的費率調整。商業車險年初至今，我想我們又再調升了約 10% 的費率，提供你一個參考，因為社會通膨仍在持續影響這一塊。

So -- and commercial auto, I don't think there's been any change. We're just continuing to be aggressive in how we take rate there. I think the adjustment in our guidance really kind of came in the Specialty Casualty part of our business. And in the quarter, we talked about public sector. And we saw from -- in the 2015 to, Brian, I think, 2019?

所以——在商業車險方面，我不認為有任何改變。我們只是持續以更積極的方式在那裡調升費率。我認為我們指引的調整，主要是出現在我們業務中的專業責任意外險（Specialty Casualty）部分。而在本季，我們談到了公共部門。我們看到從——在 2015 年到，Brian，我想是 2019 年？

Yes, 2015 to 2019. So the public sector business, we started to see the impact of social inflation there about 5 years ago through higher valued awards, higher jury verdicts and other large settlements. That business is coming out of coverage -- of casualty coverages in excess of self-insured retentions for municipalities and school districts, other business -- other entities that serve the public. So we took rate action beginning a number of years ago. So we're really seeing the issues are in those 2015 to 2019 accident years, as Carl mentioned.

是的，2015 年到 2019 年。所以在公共部門業務方面，我們大約在 5 年前開始看到社會通膨的影響，表現在更高金額的賠償裁決、更高的陪審團判決，以及其他大型和解案。這項業務主要來自公共機構（如市政府與學區等）以及其他服務大眾的實體，其自留額（self-insured retentions）以上的超額責任險（excess casualty coverages）。因此我們在數年前就開始採取費率行動。正如 Carl 提到的，我們真正看到問題主要集中在 2015 到 2019 這些事故年度。

Yes. Some of the actions that we're taking is that we've cut capacity. We've tightened aggregates. We've been increasing rates, increasing attachment points. A lot of this business is excess of higher retentions or annual aggregate deductibles that are retained by our pool clients. Reinsurance policies soften our risk here and our layered approach to structuring the business has helped us achieve better pricing, particularly in California. So I mean those are some of the things that we're trying to, in our approach in the business, to get it to the kind of returns that we're most -- that we like.

是的。我們正在採取的一些措施包括：降低承保額度（capacity）、收緊累積限額（aggregates）、提高費率、提高起賠點（attachment points）。這類業務很多是高自留額或年度累積自負額（annual aggregate deductibles）以上的超額保險，這些自留由我們的風險共保池（pool）客戶承擔。再保保單能降低我們在此的風險，而我們以分層（layered）方式來設計業務結構，也幫助我們取得更好的定價，特別是在加州。所以這些就是我們在該業務上的一些做法，目標是把報酬率拉回到我們最——我們所偏好的水準。

That's helpful. And maybe just lastly, on the broader competitive environment and also just being cognizant that AFG's ROEs are at very high [absolute] levels and probably peer leading. But just -- we've seen pricing power for certain insurers and some of the indices to the broader indices kind of accelerate a bit quarter-over-quarter, whereas I believe the total company's -- or AFG's pricing has been a little bit more flattish despite some of the inflationary trends you've been educating us about. So is it -- any -- on the competitive environment, is it -- are there -- is it certain areas that are just still kind of maybe a bit hypercompetitive? Or maybe you're just not looking to -- you don't need to take as much rate in certain areas like kind of where profitability is still excellent?

這很有幫助。最後也許談一下更廣泛的競爭環境，同時也注意到 AFG 的 ROE 處在非常高的[絕對]水準，可能也是同業領先。不過——我們看到某些保險公司的定價能力，以及一些指數相對於更廣泛的指數，在季度間似乎有些加速；但我認為整體公司——或 AFG 的定價則相對比較持平，儘管你們一直在向我們說明一些通膨趨勢。所以——就競爭環境而言，是否有某些領域仍然相對更激烈？或者你們只是——在某些領域因為獲利仍然非常好，所以不需要調升那麼多費率？

Yes. The only area that we see has gotten a lot more competitive is the whole public D&O arena. That's where we see rates where there's been a big change in rates, with rates going down 15% to 20%. I mean that said, on the rest of our D&O book or small accounts, the pricing has been pretty stable in that. In the past, I thought there was more competition on the higher excess liability layers. Through 6 months, that seems to have tightened up a little bit. We're getting rate and one of the businesses is growing a little bit. So if anything, I think I've seen maybe a tightening in that area. So we like that.

是的。我們看到競爭明顯加劇的唯一領域，是整個上市公司 D&O（public D&O）市場。在那裡我們看到費率出現很大的變化，費率下滑了 15% 到 20%。也就是說，在我們其餘的 D&O 組合或小型帳戶方面，定價一直相當穩定。過去我認為在較高層的超額責任分層（higher excess liability layers）競爭更激烈；但截至 6 個月，這似乎稍微收緊了一些。我們正在取得費率，其中一項業務也有些成長。所以如果要說的話，我反而看到那個領域可能有些收緊。我們喜歡這樣。

So would you -- just as a last follow-up, would you say the industry is trying to push through the higher reinsurance costs to the insured ultimately? And is that taking place in as far as that kind of a multi-year process? Or maybe it just doesn't need to happen because of higher interest rates?

那麼——作為最後一個追問，你會說整個產業正試圖把較高的再保成本最終轉嫁給被保險人嗎？而這是否是一個多年的過程？或者也許因為利率上升，所以其實不需要這麼做？

Are you talking about the increase in the property reinsurance -- catastrophe reinsurance?

你是在談財產再保的上升——巨災再保（catastrophe reinsurance）嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Sure. No. I think definitely, when you look at overall industry pricing, particularly on large national account, property accounts and coastal exposed there's large rate increases being taken and terms and conditions changes and business moving -- more business moving into the E&S side. Our -- we're seeing opportunities on the property side also, but we have less of an appetite for coastal property and earthquake exposed property than our peers. So we're just -- we're not making the same bets as what others are in the coastal areas and -- or the highly exposed conductive areas in them.

當然。我認為確實如此。當你看整體產業定價時，特別是在大型全國性帳戶、財產險帳戶以及沿海曝險（coastal exposed）方面，市場正在採取大幅的費率上調，並調整條款與條件，同時也有更多業務轉移到 E&S（超額及剩餘線）市場。我們在財產險方面也看到機會，但相較同業，我們對沿海財產以及地震曝險財產的承保意願較低。所以我們只是——在沿海地區以及那些高曝險、易受影響的區域上，沒有像其他人那樣做同樣的押注。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Meyer Shields from Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods.

（接線員指示）下一個問題來自 Keefe, Bruyette, & Woods 的 Meyer Shields。

Great, thanks so much. Two, I think, fairly quick questions. First, you mentioned some losses within Surety & Fidelity in the quarter, and I'm wondering whether you're viewing that as sort of a trend in line with economic weakness or just these line's inherent randomness?

太好了，非常感謝。我有兩個我想算是相當快的問題。第一，你們提到本季在保證與忠誠保險（Surety & Fidelity）出現一些損失，我想了解你們是否把這視為與經濟走弱一致的趨勢，還是只是這條線本身固有的隨機性？

I don't think we're seeing it as a trend. It's just sort of the nature of the business. There can be bumps in the claims from time to time.

我不認為我們把它視為一種趨勢。這比較像是這門業務的特性。理賠有時候會不時出現一些波動。

Okay. Perfect. And then just for understanding, given your expertise in transportation, what would lead you to decide to nonrenew a block of premium rather than remediate it?

好的。非常好。第二個問題是為了理解：以你們在運輸領域的專業來看，什麼情況會讓你們決定不續保一個保費區塊，而不是去改善（remediate）它？

I think there are some programs and some things that you do that you just don't think can be remediated with price and terms.

我想有些方案和有些事情，你會認為即使透過價格與條款，也無法改善。

OK, no -- understood, thanks.

好的，了解，謝謝。

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to now turn the conference back to Diane Weidner for closing remarks.

目前我這邊沒有看到其他問題。現在我想把電話會議交回給 Diane Weidner 作結語。

Thank you for joining us this morning. And of course, if there's any follow-up items, feel free to reach out to the IR department. We hope you all have a great rest of your day.

感謝各位今天早上加入我們。當然，如果有任何後續事項，歡迎隨時聯繫投資人關係（IR）部門。祝各位今天剩下的時間一切順利。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位參與。您現在可以掛線。