Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (AESI) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Atlas Energy Solutions First Quarter 2025 Financial and Operational Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

歡迎參加 Atlas Energy Solutions 2025 年第一季財務及營運績效電話會議。 （操作員指示）。溫馨提示：本次會議正在錄製中。

It is now my pleasure to introduce Kyle Turlington, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我很高興介紹投資者關係部門的 Kyle Turlington。先生，請繼續。

Hello, and welcome to the Atlas Energy Solutions conference call and webcast for the first quarter of 2025. With us today are John Turner, President and CEO; Blake McCarthy, CFO; and Chris Scholla, COO; and Bud Brigham, Executive Chair. John, Blake, Chris and Bud will be sharing their comments on the company's operational and financial performance for the first quarter of 2025, after which we will open the call for Q&A.

您好，歡迎參加 2025 年第一季 Atlas Energy Solutions 電話會議和網路廣播。今天與我們在一起的有總裁兼首席執行官約翰·特納 (John Turner)、首席財務官布萊克·麥卡錫 (Blake McCarthy)、首席營運官克里斯·肖拉 (Chris Scholla) 和執行主席巴德·布里格姆 (Bud Brigham)。John、Blake、Chris 和 Bud 將分享他們對公司 2025 年第一季營運和財務表現的評論，之後我們將開始問答環節。

Before we begin our prepared remarks, I would like to remind everyone that this call will include forward-looking statements as defined under the US securities laws. Such statements are based on the current information and names with expectations as of this statement and are not guarantees of future performance. Forward-looking statements involve certain risks and uncertainties and assumptions that are difficult to predict.

在我們開始準備好的發言之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議將包括美國證券法定義的前瞻性陳述。此類聲明是基於截至本聲明時的當前資訊和名稱以及預期，並不保證未來的表現。前瞻性陳述涉及某些難以預測的風險、不確定性和假設。

As such, our actual outcomes and results could differ materially. You can learn more about these risks in the annual report on Form 10-K we filed with the SEC on February 25, 2020, and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K and other SEC filings. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and we undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

因此，我們的實際成果和結果可能會存在重大差異。您可以在我們於 2020 年 2 月 25 日向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 表年度報告、10-Q 表季度報告和 8-K 表當前報告以及其他美國證券交易委員會文件中了解有關這些風險的更多信息。您不應過度依賴前瞻性陳述，我們也不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

We will also make reference to certain non-GAAP financial measures such as adjusted EBITDA, adjusted free cash flow and other operating metrics and statistics. You will find the GAAP reconciliation comments and calculations in yesterday's press release.

我們也將參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標，例如調整後的 EBITDA、調整後的自由現金流量和其他營運指標和統計數據。您可以在昨天的新聞稿中找到 GAAP 對帳評論和計算。

With that said, I will turn the call over to John Turner.

話雖如此，我將把電話轉給約翰·特納。

Thank you, Kyle. For the first quarter of Atlas delivered revenues of $297.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million represented a margin of 25%. While results were modestly impacted by a few discrete items, primarily higher-than-expected commissioning costs related to the Dune Express, our core performance remains strong. Blake will speak to those items in more detail here shortly.

謝謝你，凱爾。Atlas 第一季營收為 2.976 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 7,430 萬美元，利潤率為 25%。雖然業績受到一些離散項目的輕微影響，主要是與沙丘快車相關的高於預期的調試成本，但我們的核心業績仍然強勁。布萊克很快就會在這裡更詳細地討論這些問題。

Overall, Q1 was a milestone quarter for Atlas. We completed the acquisition of Moser Energy Systems, executed a successful equity base, refinanced our debt-set production records at our core facilities and launched commercial operations for the Dune Express. Before diving into those accomplishments, I want to directly address the uncertainty currently facing the oilfield sector and how Atlas is uniquely positioned to navigate this environment with confidence.

總體而言，第一季對於 Atlas 來說是一個里程碑式的季度。我們完成了對 Moser Energy Systems 的收購，成功進行了股權融資，為我們核心設施的債務生產記錄進行了再融資，並啟動了 Dune Express 的商業營運。在深入探討這些成就之前，我想直接談談油田產業目前面臨的不確定性，以及 Atlas 如何憑藉其獨特的優勢自信地應對這一環境。

Recent volatility largely driven by global trade concerns and macroeconomic uncertainty has pressured commodity prices, WTI forward strip has declined approximately 20% since early April. These dynamics are influencing customer spending behavior and deferring some near-term activity. That said, what management teams and markets dislike most is uncertainty.

近期的波動主要受全球貿易擔憂和宏觀經濟不確定性的影響，對大宗商品價格造成壓力，WTI 遠期價格自 4 月初以來已下跌約 20%。這些動態正在影響客戶的消費行為並推遲一些近期活動。話雖如此，管理團隊和市場最不喜歡的還是不確定性。

And we've structured Atlas from the outset to perform through both up cycles and downturns. We are not reacting from a position of weakness, we are executing from a position of strength. Atlas was built to lead through cycle, not follow them. In times like these, companies that control costs, prioritize capital discipline and elevate with purpose will be the ones that emerge longer.

我們從一開始就建立了 Atlas，使其能夠經受住上升週期和下降週期的考驗。我們不是從弱勢地位做出反應，而是從強勢地位來執行。Atlas 的建造是為了引領循環，而不是跟隨循環。在這樣的時期，那些控製成本、優先考慮資本紀律並有目的地提升的公司將會脫穎而出。

On the sand and logistics side, our Kermit and Monahans operations in combination with our encore network and now the Dune Express position Atlas as the absolute low end of the Permian sand cost curve. On the power side, Moser Energy's integrated manufacturing and field long service platform allows us to offer lower cost, higher uptime solutions that create meaningful value for our customers.

在砂石和物流方面，我們的 Kermit 和 Monahans 業務與我們的 Encore 網路以及現在的 Dune Express 相結合，使 Atlas 成為二疊紀砂石成本曲線的絕對低端。在電力方面，Moser Energy 的整合製造和現場長期服務平台使我們能夠提供成本更低、正常運行時間更長的解決方案，為客戶創造有意義的價值。

Moreover, our business model be none for resilience. We operate with low sustaining capital requirements. Our annual maintenance CapEx is approximately $45 million to $50 million, and we maintain the flexibility to skill the spending up or down in response to market conditions. Our recent refinancing consolidates our debt into a single facility with Eldridge reducing our annual amortization of $220 million and enhancing liquidity and optionality.

此外，我們的商業模式缺乏彈性。我們的營運維持資本要求較低。我們的年度維護資本支出約為 4500 萬至 5000 萬美元，並且我們保持靈活性，可以根據市場情況增加或減少支出。我們最近的再融資將我們的債務與 Eldridge 合併為一個單一的融資工具，從而減少了我們每年 2.2 億美元的攤銷額，並提高了流動性和可選性。

Unlike many oilfield service peers who struggle to break even in downturns, Atlas's structural advantage enables us to generate healthy free cash flow in weak markets while capturing outsized returns when conditions tighten. We're already seeing some customers growth plans that are not flat until further clarity stands.

與許多在經濟低迷時期難以實現收支平衡的油田服務同行不同，Atlas 的結構優勢使我們能夠在疲軟的市場中產生健康的自由現金流，同時在市場收緊時獲得超額回報。我們已經看到一些客戶的成長計劃在情況進一步明朗之前不會平穩。

While this has led some second quarter volumes into the back half of the year, we entered 2025 with a growing allocation base of approximately 22 million tons and continue to bid on meaningful new tenders. This pause is not a reset. It's a recalibration and we expect activity to resume as visibility improves. Turning to what gives us confidence, the Dune Express, while contributing minimally to Q1's financials, is entering a critical phase.

雖然這導致第二季的部分產量進入下半年，但進入 2025 年，我們的分配基數將持續成長，約為 2,200 萬噸，並將繼續競標有意義的新招標。這次暫停並不是重置。這是一種重新校準，我們預計隨著可見度的提高，活動將會恢復。談到讓我們充滿信心的因素，沙丘快車雖然對第一季的財務貢獻很小，但正在進入一個關鍵階段。

Volumes are stabilizing, and we begin routing deliveries through our end-of-line facility, optimizing last-mile execution. We continue to expect Q2 to be the first period where the economic benefits of the express are reflected in our logistics margins. This is a long-term infrastructure advantage, and its early traction is already validating the strategy.

貨運量正在穩定下來，我們開始透過終端設施安排運輸，優化最後一英里的執行。我們繼續預期第二季將是快遞的經濟效益首次反映在我們的物流利潤率中的時期。這是一個長期的基礎設施優勢，其早期的吸引力已經驗證了這項策略。

Similarly, the integration of Moser Energy Systems is progressing exceptionally well. The cultural alignment has been seamless and customer feedback has been overwhelmingly positive. Just as we disrupted the status quo in the standard logistics business, we are taking a fresh approach in distributed power, exploring new business models and strategic partnerships to increase efficiency and lower customer costs.

同樣，Moser Energy Systems 的整合也進展非常順利。文化契合十分順暢，顧客回饋也十分正面。正如我們打破了標準物流業務的現狀一樣，我們在分散式電源領域採取了新方法，探索新的商業模式和策略合作夥伴關係，以提高效率並降低客戶成本。

Moser's spirit of innovation is evident with next-generation offerings already in development that will further differentiate our Power platform. In closing, while short-term uncertainty remains, our long-term outlook is grounded in strategic clarity, operational discipline and structural advantage across our portfolio. We are confident in the platform we've built and then the team is executing our vision every day.

Moser 的創新精神在已開發的下一代產品中得到了充分體現，這些產品將進一步區分我們的 Power 平台。最後，雖然短期不確定性仍然存在，但我們的長期前景是基於我們投資組合的策略清晰度、營運紀律和結構優勢。我們對所建構的平台充滿信心，團隊每天都在執行我們的願景。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chris Scholla.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給 Chris Scholla。

Thanks, John. At Atlas, we made a commitment. To the communities of West Texas and New Mexico to enhance public safety by reducing truck traffic through the deployment of the Dune Express since its first delivery on January 12, the Dune Express has already eliminated an estimated 1.8 million truck miles from our roads, and we're just getting started.

謝謝，約翰。在 Atlas，我們做出了承諾。對於西德克薩斯州和新墨西哥州的社區來說，透過部署沙丘快車，減少卡車交通，從而提高公共安全，自 1 月 12 日首次交付以來，沙丘快車已經減少了道路上約 180 萬英里的卡車行駛里程，而這僅僅是個開始。

The system continues to ramp steadily, setting new shipment records each month. This progress reflects the strength of our strategic execution and the long-term vision that guides our business. The Dune Express is a powerful validation of our disruptive logistics model. One that simultaneously delivers cost savings to our customers, margin expansion for Atlas and meaningful improvements in public road safety.

該系統持續穩定提升，每月都創下新的出貨量記錄。這項進步體現了我們策略執行的實力以及指導我們業務的長期願景。沙丘快車有力地驗證了我們顛覆性的物流模式。它能同時為我們的客戶節省成本、擴大 Atlas 的利潤率並顯著改善公共道路安全。

These achievements are rooted in our recommitment to the fundamentals of operational excellence. Over the past year we have gone to the basics and build around three core pillars people, processes, and technology. Each reinforcing our long-term ambition to create scalable and high-performing operations. We've invested in people by strengthening leadership, restructuring teams for accountability and fostering a culture of ownership and cross-functional collaboration.

這些成就源自於我們對卓越營運基本原則的重新承諾。在過去的一年裡，我們從基礎做起，圍繞著三大核心支柱：人員、流程和技術進行建構。每一個都強化了我們創建可擴展和高效能營運的長期目標。我們透過加強領導力、重組團隊以加強問責以及培養主人翁精神和跨職能協作的文化來投資人才。

This alignment around common goals is driving operational discipline across the organization. We've optimized our processes through standardized workflows, improved visibility and the removal of bottles. These efforts are translating directly into improved execution and cost efficiencies across the business. And on the technology front, we're enabling smarter, data-driven operations. from implementing reliability-based maintenance strategies to leveraging sensor data for predictive analytics.

這種圍繞共同目標的協調正在推動整個組織的運作紀律。我們透過標準化工作流程、提高可視性和移除瓶子來優化我們的流程。這些努力直接轉化為整個業務執行力和成本效率的提升。在技​​術方面，我們正在實現更智慧、數據驅動的運營，從實施基於可靠性的維護策略到利用感測器數據進行預測分析。

We're using technology to drive performance. Our autonomous trucking program has already completed over 500 deliveries to date, and we're poised to scale this significantly in the quarters ahead. In March, we set new monthly production records at our Kermit facility and achieved a last mile volume record of 1.8 million tonnes delivered.

我們正在利用科技來提高績效。迄今為止，我們的自動駕駛卡車專案已經完成了 500 多次交付，我們準備在未來幾季大幅擴大這一規模。3 月份，我們在克米特工廠創下了新的月產量記錄，並實現了 180 萬噸的最後一英里交付量記錄。

Encore continues to perform exceptionally well maintaining strong volumes and demand. This operational momentum is a result of a focused transformation effort and a return to fundamentals. Before I hand the call over to Blake, I want to recognize and thank all of our teams across Atlas. It's your execution, dedication and teamwork that are delivering results today while positioning Atlas for long-term sustainable success.

Encore 持續表現出色，維持強勁的銷售和需求。這種營運動能是集中轉型努力和回歸基本面的結果。在我將電話交給布萊克之前，我想先感謝 Atlas 的所有團隊。正是你們的執行力、奉獻精神和團隊合作精神，才使得 Atlas 取得了今天的成果，同時也為實現長期可持續的成功奠定了基礎。

Thanks, Chris. In Q1 2025, Atlas generated revenues of $29.6 million and adjusted EBITDA of $74.3 million, a 25% margin. EBITDA fell slightly below our guidance due to elevated costs from commissioning the Dune Express and incremental third-party trucking bonuses to ensure deliveries during challenging winter road conditions.

謝謝，克里斯。2025 年第一季，Atlas 的營收為 2,960 萬美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 7,430 萬美元，利潤率為 25%。由於沙丘快車的調試成本增加以及為確保在冬季道路條件惡劣的情況下進行交付而增加的第三方卡車運輸獎金，EBITDA 略低於我們的預期。

These factors reduced Q1 EBITDA by approximately $4 million, impacting service margins early in the quarter. January service margins dipped to the mid-single digits. Well below our historical 10% to 15% range but rebounded by 1,100 basis points by March. We expect this recovery to accelerate in Q2, with service margins surpassing 20% as the Dune Express's benefits begin to materialize though still below its full potential.

這些因素導致第一季 EBITDA 減少約 400 萬美元，影響了本季初的服務利潤率。一月份服務利潤率下降至個位數中段。遠低於我們歷史上的 10% 至 15% 的範圍，但到 3 月反彈了 1,100 個基點。我們預計，隨著沙丘快車的效益開始顯現（儘管仍未達到其全部潛力），復甦將在第二季度加速，服務利潤率將超過 20%。

Breaking down revenue, profit sales totaled $139.7 million. Logistics operations contributed $150.6 million and Power rentals added $7.3 million. Proppant volumes reached 5.7 million tons, up sequentially despite weather-related disruptions. Encore volumes, more sensitive to freezing conditions, were 1.7 million tons, slightly down from Q4.

以收入計算，利潤銷售額總計 1.397 億美元。物流業務貢獻了 1.506 億美元，電力租賃貢獻了 730 萬美元。支撐劑產量達到 570 萬噸，儘管受到天氣影響，但仍比上一季增加。Encore 產量對冰凍條件更為敏感，為 170 萬噸，較第四季略有下降。

Average revenue per ton was $24.71, boosted by shortfall revenue from unmet customer pickups. Excluding this, the average price was $22.51 per ton. Total cost of sales, excluding DD&A, was $206.1 million, comprised of $65.2 million in plant operating costs, $133.5 million in service costs, $2.3 million in rental costs and $5.1 million in royalties. Per ton plant operating costs fell to $11.53 excluding royalties, down from Q4, with further normalization expected in Q2 due to improved efficiencies.

每噸平均收入為 24.71 美元，主要由於未滿足客戶提貨需求而產生的收入缺口。除此之外，平均價格為每噸22.51美元。不包括 DD&A 在內的總銷售成本為 2.061 億美元，其中包括 6,520 萬美元的工廠營運成本、1.335 億美元的服務成本、230 萬美元的租賃成本和 510 萬美元的特許權使用費。每噸工廠營運成本（不含特許權使用費）較第四季下降至 11.53 美元，由於效率提高，預計第二季將進一步恢復正常。

Cash SG&A was $26.6 million, including $8.2 million in transaction costs tied to the Moser acquisition and the subsequent financing activities. Excluding these, SG&A was $18.5 million, up 6% from Q4. We anticipate SG&A rising above $20 million per quarter starting in Q2 due to Moser's integration. DD&A was $37.0 million. Net income was $1.2 million and earnings per share was $1.2 million.

現金銷售、一般及行政費用為 2,660 萬美元，其中包括與 Moser 收購和後續融資活動相關的 820 萬美元交易成本。除此之外，銷售、一般及行政費用為 1,850 萬美元，較第四季成長 6%。由於 Moser 的整合，我們預計從第二季開始每季銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 將超過 2,000 萬美元。DD&A 為 3700 萬美元。淨收入為 120 萬美元，每股收益為 120 萬美元。

Adjusted free cash flow, which we define as adjusted EBITDA less maintenance CapEx, was $58.8 million or 19.7% of revenue. Total incurred CapEx was $38.9 million, including $23.4 million in growth CapEx and $2.1 million for power and $15.5 million in maintenance CapEx. Q1 CapEx included do express commissioning costs, and we expect a sequential decline in Q2. For 2025, we're budgeting $115 million in total CapEx with flexibility to adjust based on market conditions.

調整後的自由現金流（我們將其定義為調整後的 EBITDA 減去維護資本支出）為 5,880 萬美元，佔收入的 19.7%。總發生的資本支出為 3,890 萬美元，其中包括 2,340 萬美元的成長資本支出、210 萬美元的電力資本支出和 1,550 萬美元的維護資本支出。第一季的資本支出包括快遞調試成本，我們預期第二季將出現季減。到 2025 年，我們的預算總資本支出為 1.15 億美元，並可根據市場情況靈活調整。

As John noted, economic and commodity price uncertainty is prompting caution amongst our customers, with several Q2 development plans defer to the second half of 2025. Rather than play the game of death 5,000 cuts. Let's focus on what we know for Atlas in 2025. First, we have strong visibility on 22 million tons with 3 million tons of potential upside pending.

正如約翰所指出的，經濟和商品價格的不確定性促使我們的客戶保持謹慎，第二季的幾個開發計劃推遲到 2025 年下半年。而不是玩死亡5000次砍殺的遊戲。讓我們關註一下 2025 年 Atlas 的現狀。首先，我們對 2,200 萬噸的預期很高，還有 300 萬噸的潛在上升空間。

Nearly all allocated volumes are tied to dedicated crews, minimizing exposure to volatile spot crews. Second, the Dune Express and our mobile mine network provide unmatched logistical cost advantages, facilitating high utilization even in softer markets. Assuming no additional opportunistic volumes this year, and thus, lower Dune Express throughput than previously forecast, we are currently projecting quarterly adjusted EBITDA run rate of $70 million to $80 million.

幾乎所有分配的交易量都與專門的工作人員掛鉤，從而最大限度地減少了不穩定的現貨工作人員的風險。其次，Dune Express 和我們的行動礦場網路提供了無與倫比的物流成本優勢，即使在疲軟的市場中也能實現高利用率。假設今年沒有額外的機會性運量，因此 Dune Express 的吞吐量低於先前的預測，我們目前預計季度調整後的 EBITDA 運行率為 7,000 萬至 8,000 萬美元。

If deferred projects proceed, this could rise to $80 million to $100 million. In either scenario, our financial mutations, including the current dividend, are fully covered even without tapping our CapEx flexibility. Atlas' robust financial position allows us to keep investing for long-term growth. Based on current market conditions and activity trends, we expect Q2 volumes and EBITDA to be flat to up from Q2.

如果延期項目繼續進行，這一數字可能會上升至 8,000 萬至 1 億美元。無論哪種情況，即使不利用我們的資本支出靈活性，我們的財務變化（包括當前股息）也完全可以覆蓋。Atlas 穩健的財務狀況使我們能夠繼續投資以實現長期成長。根據當前的市場狀況和活動趨勢，我們預計第二季的銷售量和 EBITDA 將與第二季持平或上升。

Before we open the call for Q&A, a few remarks from our Chairman, Bud Brigham.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我們的主席巴德·布里格姆 (Bud Brigham) 想講幾句話。

Thank you, Blake. I will be brief in general, given that the team has updated very well the current operational and financial aspects of our business. With over 35 years of experience in the oil and gas industry, starting my first company in 1990 and now having managed three public companies. We've learned to not only navigate but thrive in the industry cyclical nature.

謝謝你，布萊克。鑑於團隊已經很好地更新了我們業務的當前營運和財務方面，我將簡要介紹。我在石油和天然氣行業擁有超過 35 年的經驗，並於 1990 年創辦了我的第一家公司，現在已經管理了三家上市公司。我們不僅學會瞭如何在行業週期性中導航，而且還學會瞭如何在行業週期性中蓬勃發展。

The ability to transform challenges into opportunities has been a key driver of long-term success. This approach defines Atlas. Where our low-cost structure and unique operational and logistical advantages, including the Dune Express, autonomous trucking and our distributed power systems set us distinctly apart. These strengths position us to build lasting value during market downturns as we did during the pandemic.

將挑戰轉化為機會的能力一直是長期成功的關鍵驅動力。這種方法定義了 Atlas。我們的低成本結構和獨特的營運和物流優勢（包括沙丘快車、自動駕駛卡車和分散式電力系統）使我們脫穎而出。這些優勢使我們能夠在市場低迷時期創造持久的價值，就像我們在疫情期間所做的那樣。

As prices and activity improve, I'm content Atlas will emerge even stronger, solidifying our commanding leadership in the industry. That concludes our call.

隨著價格和活動的改善，我很高興 Atlas 變得更加強大，鞏固我們在行業中的領先地位。我們的通話到此結束。

We would be happy to answer any questions.

我們很樂意回答任何問題。

(Operator Instructions). Derek Podhaizer, Piper Sandler.

（操作員指令）。德里克波德海澤、派珀桑德勒。

I just wanted to ask if you can give us some additional color on what your guidance of flat to up sequentially is assuming just thinking about the Dune Express ramping up full contribution from your power business. So what are you seeing on activity, pricing and cost per ton as we move through the year?

我只是想問一下，您是否可以提供一些額外的信息，說明您的平穩到連續上升的指導是否假設 Dune Express 能夠從您的電力業務中全面提升貢獻。那麼，隨著時間的流逝，您看到活動、定價和每噸成本如何？

Thanks, Derek. This is John. And I'll provide some preliminary comments and then Blake and Chris will follow up currently, we don't -- we currently don't see any near-term upside in this market. You can see that about what you've been hearing, especially like last night, I mean, you look at Travis' letter to shareholders. And I said it in my comments, what we've seen is kind of a wait-and-see attitude on what's happening.

謝謝，德里克。這是約翰。我會提供一些初步評論，然後布萊克和克里斯會跟進，目前，我們目前沒有看到這個市場有任何近期上漲的可能性。您可以看到您所聽到的內容，尤其是昨晚的內容，我的意思是，您可以看看特拉維斯給股東的信。我在我的評論中說過，我們看到的是一種對正在發生的事情的觀望態度。

No additions where there were some additions that were planned that have been postponed. However, and you start to see the news come out with some operators cutting activity, cutting crews because of what's going on in the markets. So but -- so right now, we don't necessarily see near-term upside. But obviously, on the other side of that, we see there's a response.

原計劃增加的部分內容已被推遲，但目前沒有增加。然而，你開始看到新聞報道，有些業者因為市場情勢的變化而削減活動、裁減人員。所以，但是──目前，我們不一定能看到短期上漲。但顯然，另一方面，我們看到了回應。

You're already starting to see production probably we're starting to have a supply response on the Permian Basin. And obviously, that near term could turn into the positive on the other side. Blake, do you want to go ahead?

您已經開始看到產量，也許我們已經開始對二疊紀盆地做出供應反應。顯然，短期內情況可能會出現正面的轉機。布萊克，你想繼續嗎？

Yes. Derek. It's Blake. For the second quarter, we're taking a conservative growth on volumes as we're not assuming any incremental uptake versus what customers have already spoken for, we would typically see customers begin to accelerate their development plans this time of the year. As they work through their CapEx budgets for a seasonal drop off at the end of the year.

是的。德里克。是布萊克。對於第二季度，我們對銷售成長持保守態度，因為我們不假設與客戶已經提到的相比有任何增量成長，我們通常會看到客戶在每年的這個時候開始加速他們的開發計劃。因為他們要透過資本支出預算來應對年底季節性下降的情況。

But the move in commodity prices, certainly, that urgencies evaporated. We are seeing larger volumes taken off the end of the Dune Express, which is beginning to positively impact our logistics margins, which are expected to be in the 20% range this quarter, but still far cry from what we ultimately generate with the Dune Express.

但大宗商品價格的變動無疑地使這種緊迫感消失了。我們看到沙丘快車末端的貨運量正在增加，這開始對我們的物流利潤率產生積極影響，預計本季度的物流利潤率將在 20% 左右，但與我們最終透過沙丘快車產生的利潤率相比仍相差甚遠。

With respect to the rest of the year, I think it's anyone's guess, but if the commodity prices remain around current levels, I'd expect activity to wane throughout the course of the year, beginning, particularly with the smaller players. Fortunately, for Atlas, we're levered to the operators with the highest return on assets in the Permian Basin.

至於今年剩餘時間的情況，我想誰也說不準，但如果大宗商品價格維持在當前水準附近，我預計全年活動將會減弱，尤其是小型企業的活動。幸運的是，對於 Atlas 而言，我們與二疊紀盆地資產回報率最高的營運商建立了合作關係。

And our whole business model is built around saving the money through both efficiencies and as a low-cost supplier, which is going to become increasingly important as they look to cut well AFEs. So as we look over these well costs, we're going to look to gain incremental market share and enhanced utilization just as we have in prior downturns.

我們的整個商業模式都是圍繞著透過提高效率和作為低成本供應商來節省資金而建立的，當他們尋求削減 AFE 時，這一點將變得越來越重要。因此，當我們審視這些油井成本時，我們將尋求獲得增量市場份額和提高利用率，就像我們在先前的經濟低迷時期所做的那樣。

Great. That's helpful. And maybe just to kind of dovetail off of that. Obviously, you've mentioned entering a period of softer activity and we hear it all over the place. But maybe, -- I know you touched upon it on your opening comments but further expand on the 22 million tons you have committed this year, confidence around those volumes for the remainder of the year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。也許只是為了與此相吻合。顯然，您提到進入了經濟活動較為疲軟的時期，我們也隨處聽到了這種說法。但也許——我知道您在開場白中提到了這一點，但進一步擴大您今年承諾的 2200 萬噸，您對今年剩餘時間的產量有信心嗎？

I know last call, we talked about potentially getting to north of $25 million. So just maybe some additional color and comments as far as hitting those $22 million and what we need to see to get us to the $25 million number.

我知道上次我們討論過可能達到 2500 萬美元以上。因此，關於達到 2200 萬美元以及我們需要看到什麼才能達到 2500 萬美元這個數字，也許需要一些額外的細節和評論。

Yes. This is Chris Scholla, I'll take that one. We remain confident in the demand for that 22 million tons we have allocated for the remainder of the year. And I think this is really supported by strong fundamentals. I'll share some stats with you just to try to help put this in perspective, right?

是的。這是 Chris Scholla，我接受這個。我們對今年剩餘時間分配的 2200 萬噸的需求仍然充滿信心。我認為這確實受到強勁基本面的支持。我會與您分享一些統計數據，只是為了幫助您正確看待這個問題，對嗎？

Approximately 75% of our allocated volumes are tied to Simul or Trimul completions, which are really the most efficient and cost-effective frac methods out there, right? Making those completions much less likely to be impacted by any slowdown in activity. Over 70% of our volumes are committed to large cap operators, and that number of races up to 85% when you add in those mid-cap operators.

我們分配的產量中約有 75% 與 Simul 或 Trimul 完井有關，這確實是目前最有效、最具成本效益的壓裂方法，對嗎？使得這些完工不太可能受到任何活動放緩的影響。我們的交易量有 70% 以上都流向了大型股營運商，如果加上中型股營運商，這個比例則高達 85%。

We view this as really providing that stability through the larger long-term price. And you look at it from a fully delivered low-cost basis, right? The sand volumes of the Dune Express Mobile Mini it's really unlikely that we see those customers have a pullback from those most cost-effective supply options out there. With that said, we still recognize the market is exposed to many macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.

我們認為這確實可以透過更高的長期價格提供穩定性。您是從完全交付低成本的基礎來看這個問題的，對嗎？Dune Express Mobile Mini 的沙量讓我們不太可能看到那些客戶放棄最具成本效益的供應選擇。話雖如此，我們仍然認識到市場面臨許多宏觀經濟和地緣政治的不確定因素。

But the market appears stable for now, and we're in this kind of wait-and-see Goldilocks holding zone where really a $10 move an oil proceeded way could provide significant risk downward or significant opportunity upward in the back half of the year.

但目前市場似乎比較穩定，我們正處於一種觀望的金髮姑娘維持區，油價每上漲 10 美元就可能在今年下半年帶來重大的下行風險或重大的上行機會。

Saurabh Pant, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Saurabh Pant。

Good morning, John, Blake and Chris. John, Chris, maybe I want to start up more as a follow-up to what Derek was asking in terms of the guide, right, I want to specifically focus on the Dune Express. Maybe spend a little time talking about the ramp up, what you're seeing thus far, both on the operational and the commercial side of things.

早安，約翰、布萊克和克里斯。約翰、克里斯，也許我想進一步跟進德里克在指南方面提出的問題，對的，我想特別關注沙丘快車。也許花一點時間談論一下目前為止您所看到的成長情況，包括營運方面和商業方面。

And then just maybe help us think through the cost inefficiencies because I think like you were talking about how lower volumes are impacting your cost structure on the Dune Express rate. So maybe just spend a little time on that and just help us think through the near-term earnings power of the Dune Express.

然後也許可以幫助我們思考成本效率低下的問題，因為我認為您正在談論較低的數量如何影響 Dune Express 費率的成本結構。所以也許只要花一點時間就可以幫助我們思考沙丘快車的近期獲利能力。

Yes, I'll just start off. Saurabh, then I'll hand it over to Chris. The first and second quarters, I mean, when you start looking at the sand that's going down the Dune Express, we still have the cost associated with the Dune Express operating full operating, probably even higher costs because we're in a commissioning phase. You're not really necessarily setting a whole lot of volume out to Dune Express.

是的，我馬上就開始。索拉布，那麼我將把它交給克里斯。第一季和第二季度，我的意思是，當你開始觀察沙丘快車上的沙子時，我們仍然需要承擔與沙丘快車全面運作相關的成本，甚至可能更高的成本，因為我們正處於調試階段。你實際上並不一定需要為 Dune Express 設定大量的音量。

And until we reset reach that maximum capacity to sell and altitude Express is where you're going to obviously see the full impact to our margins. I think if you look at the 1 million tons that have been set down to for us to date, I think a majority of that happened in the second quarter. And we, our plan is to continue to ramp this up and we're very excited about what we are seeing of the Dune Express.

在我們重新設定最大銷售能力之前，您顯然會看到 Altitude Express 對我們利潤率的全面影響。我認為，如果你看一下我們迄今為止確定的 100 萬噸產量，我認為其中大部分產量發生在第二季度。我們的計劃是繼續推進這一進程，我們對沙丘快車的進展感到非常興奮。

And obviously, more activity in the areas where the Dune Express is located, is going to -- in operations and as operators utilize it more. You're going to start seeing the full impact of our margins. Chris, do you want to go ahead and talk about those?

顯然，沙丘快車所在地區的營運活動將會更加活躍，營運商也會更多地利用它。您將開始看到我們的利潤的全部影響。克里斯，你想繼續討論這些嗎？

Yes. I think just from a high-level macro perspective, right? The Dune Express, just a reminder, delivers to the most prolific region in North America. And you look at the last downturn, and that's really where all these rates contracted to us. And so I think we are in a well-positioned area on the due from a demand basis. Just an update on commissioning of the Dune Express, right, we continue to progress well.

是的。我認為僅從高層次的宏觀角度來看，對嗎？提醒一下，沙丘快車將運送至北美最豐富的地區。看看上次的經濟衰退，你會發現當時所有的利率都縮小了。因此我認為從需求角度來看我們處於有利地位。這只是關於沙丘快車調試的最新消息，對的，我們繼續進展順利。

We've addressed the most significant initial technical challenges was really the focus on the motor uptime and overall power performance, and it's already led to much stable. Much more stabilization and more consistent. We're kind of in that typical phase of the commissioning process, working through control system refinements and supplier programming adjustments to really further optimize the operations.

我們已經解決了最初最重要的技術挑戰，重點是馬達正常運行時間和整體動力性能，並且已經帶來了巨大的穩定性。更加穩定、更加一致。我們正處於調試過程的典型階段，透過控制系統改進和供應商編程調整來進一步優化營運。

Any type of refiners are really expected of a project of this scale and complexity, but we're confident in our team's ability to address this effectively. In late March, we completed our first scheduled maintenance cycle on time, no issues there. We completed those mechanical improvements, right, like the belt shortening at the transfer station authorizations and they're already contributing to the overall consistency of the Dune.

任何類型的煉油廠都需要完成這種規模和複雜程度的項目，但我們相信我們的團隊有能力有效地解決這個問題。三月下旬，我們按時完成了第一次預定的維護週期，沒有任何問題。我們完成了那些機械改進，例如在轉運站授權處縮短皮帶，它們已經為 Dune 的整體一致性做出了貢獻。

Just some numbers here, since the launch, the Dune Express has shipped over 1 million tons and eliminated roughly 1.8 million truck miles from public route. So that to us is really tangible through the systems growing impact out there. You talked about the financial contribution of it along with that ramp, right? Q1 was a bit modest, I think due to that upfront commissioning costs and volumes being on the front end of that commissioning ramp, but operations normalize, and the system efficiencies continue to build up.

這裡僅列舉一些數字，自推出以來，沙丘快車已運送了超過 100 萬噸貨物，減少了公共路線上卡車行駛的里程數約 180 萬英里。因此，對我們來說，透過系統不斷增長的影響，這是真正切實可行的。您談到了該坡道對財務的貢獻，對嗎？我認為第一季的情況有點溫和，因為前期調試成本和產量處於調試階段的前端，但營運恢復正常，系統效率繼續提高。

We expect those margins to expand meaningfully as we move towards that back half of our ramp in Q2. as well kind of some data points out there, right, over the last 30 days, our shipments down the Dune Express. They've been running at a clip around 6 million tonne a year run rate, and we continue to push that upwards every month.

我們預計，隨著我們在第二季進入成長的後半段，利潤率將大幅擴大。此外，一些數據顯示，在過去 30 天裡，我們的沙丘快車的出貨量有所增加。他們的年生產能力一直保持在 600 萬噸左右，而且我們每個月都會繼續提高這個水準。

Really, from our perspective, the Dune Express in summary, kind of remains that or some of our long-term strategy, and we believe it will be the key driver of margin expansion as well as a lasting competitive advantage moving forward in the market.

實際上，從我們的角度來看，沙丘快車總體上仍然是我們的長期策略，我們相信它將成為利潤擴張的關鍵驅動力以及未來市場持久的競爭優勢。

Yes. Saurabh. Piggybacking here, it's Chris here. Just to give you a little inside baseball on the numbers there. So in the prepared remarks, we talked about the logistic margins in January were compressed by severe weather [salt].

是的。索拉布。搭便車的是克里斯。只是想給你一些有關那裡數字的內幕信息。因此，在準備好的發言中，我們談到了 1 月份物流利潤率因惡劣天氣而受到壓縮[鹽]。

But by March, with the ramp in volumes down the Dune Express, we saw 1,100 basis points of margin expansion in the logistics business. With volumes continue to ramp off the Dune Express, our expectations of logistics margins to reach a two handle in the second quarter. We're still below what we ultimately can achieve with the system.

但到了 3 月份，隨著沙丘快車運輸量的增加，我們看到物流業務的利潤率擴大了 1,100 個基點。隨著沙丘快車的運輸量持續增加，我們預計第二季物流利潤率將達到兩倍。我們仍未達到該系統最終能夠實現的目標。

So let me be clear, every incremental ton we deliver opportune Express is highly accretive to -- as consolidated margin. They're flowing through the incremental margins north of 50% right now. So we're just continuing to focus on pushing more and more volume there.

因此，讓我明確一點，我們透過適時快運運送的每一噸增量貨物都會大大增加我們的合併利潤。目前，它們的增量利潤率已超過 50%。因此，我們只是繼續專注於提高銷售量。

Okay. No, that's fantastic color. And Blake, maybe I'll stick with you. And a follow-up question I had was on the free cash flow side of things. Free cash flow the way we define it as CFFO, less CapEx, was weaker than I was thinking at least right. But lots of things going on, working capital, CapEx. So maybe just help us think through the free cash flow profile.

好的。不，那顏色太漂亮了。布萊克，也許我會和你在一起。我的後續問題是關於自由現金流方面的問題。我們將自由現金流定義為 CFFO（減去資本支出），它比我想像的要弱，至少是正確的。但有很多事情要做，營運資金、資本支出。所以也許只是幫助我們思考自由現金流狀況。

Maybe just walk us through what happened in 1Q, and then what should we expect the remainder of the year from a moving piece standpoint to working capital CapEx you touched on in your prepared remarks, right, maybe a little bit on cash interest, tax expenses, right? So just the moving pieces of free cash for the remainder of the year.

也許只是向我們介紹第一季度發生的事情，然後從行動件的角度來看，我們對今年剩餘時間的預期是什麼，您在準備好的發言中提到了營運資本資本支出，對吧，也許還有一點現金利息、稅費，對吧？因此，這只是今年剩餘時間內可動用的自由現金。

Yes. So there were a few moving pieces of cash flow in Q1 that they're going to change moving forward. So first, Q1 was going to be our largest spending order this year in terms of CapEx with the commissioning of the Dune Express. So total CapEx incurred was $38.9 million, and that is currently expected to decline to approximately $25 million per quarter, state line for our budget of $115 million.

是的。因此，第一季的現金流中存在一些變動，他們將在未來做出改變。首先，隨著沙丘快車的投入使用，第一季將成為我們今年資本支出最大的季度。因此，總資本支出為 3,890 萬美元，目前預計將下降至每季約 2,500 萬美元，符合我們 1.15 億美元預算的州界線。

Additionally, we had a really big build in working capital during the quarter. Net working capital expanded from $18 million at the end of the year to $109 million at the end of March. With almost the entirety of that build coming in accounts receivable. The reason for that build is twofold. First, we had some large customers sold payments at the end of the quarter, likely to make their own working capital metrics look better.

此外，本季我們的營運資金大幅增加。淨營運資本從年底的 1,800 萬美元擴大至 3 月底的 1.09 億美元。幾乎所有建設資金都來自應收帳款。建構該結構的原因有二。首先，我們有一些大客戶在季度末出售了付款，這可能會使他們自己的營運資金指標看起來更好。

But we've already seen that begin worse at the start of this quarter, it was some big collection weeks. Second, we have a receivable with a pressure pumping customer that has been building due to shortfalls on take pay contract. We have an enforceable contract there and expect to collect this receivable. So moving forward, we expect to see improved working capital efficiency and don't expect working capital to be a headwind to cash flow generation as we move through the year.

但我們已經看到，本季初情況變得更糟，這是幾個收集量很大的星期。其次，我們與一家壓力泵客戶有應收帳款，由於付款合約上的資金不足，該客戶一直在建設中。我們在那裡有一份可執行的合同，並希望收回這筆應收款。因此，展望未來，我們預期營運資本效率將會提高，並且預期營運資本不會成為全年現金流產生的阻力。

With respect to cash taxes, we expect that to be a minimal impact this year. Right now, estimates are anywhere from $6 million to $10 million. And so all in all, like we expect cash flow to improve moving forward as we head through the year.

對於現金稅，我們預計今年的影響將很小。目前，估值在 60​​0 萬美元至 1000 萬美元之間。總而言之，我們預計隨著今年的到來，現金流將會有所改善。

Okay. And a very quick follow-up on what you just said, Blake, on the contract shortfall. How should we think about that if a customer, let's say, of that 22 million tonnes for whatever reason does not pick up the contracted volume? How enforceable are these contracts? And how much do you think shortfall payments could be?

好的。布萊克，關於您剛才提到的合約不足問題，我想快速跟進。假設有 2,200 萬噸的客戶因為某些原因沒有提取合約規定的數量，我們該如何考慮呢？這些合約的執行力如何？您認為差額賠償金額可能為多少？

We are very confident in the language in that contract and believe it is an enforceable contract and have every intention of collecting on them receiver.

我們對該合約的措辭非常有信心，相信這是一份可執行的合同，並且有意向接收方收取費用。

Jim Rollyson, Raymond James.

吉姆羅利森、雷蒙詹姆斯。

If I could maybe switch gears for a second here. Obviously, you got the challenges going on in the oil and gas markets, but the peers you're kind of competing with to some degree on the power side of things have kind of been singing the praises and actually ramping up their CapEx based on outlooks opportunity, et cetera.

如果我可以在這裡換一下話題的話。顯然，你們在石油和天然氣市場面臨著挑戰​​，但在某種程度上，在電力方面與你們競爭的同行卻對你們讚不絕口，並根據前景機會等實際上增加了資本支出。

Maybe -- I know it's early days because you've only had the business for a couple of months now, but maybe just expand a little bit on what you guys are seeing in terms of opportunity and maybe future growth upside to the $60 million CapEx you guys talked about in the past?

也許——我知道現在還為時過早，因為你們才經營了幾個月，但也許可以稍微擴展一下你們所看到的機會，以及你們過去談到的 6000 萬美元資本支出的未來增長潛力？

Yes. Thanks, Jim. You're right. We have on this business for over 60 days now. And obviously, I mean the integration is going well. Very excited about what we're seeing from them -- on the merger side and the Moser team. The response that we've received from our customers has been pretty overwhelming. We're still working through what all that means is for Atlas as an organization.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。你說得對。我們從事這項業務已經超過60天了。顯然，我的意思是整合進展順利。我們對他們在合併方面和 Moser 團隊的表現感到非常興奮。我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋非常熱烈。我們仍在努力弄清楚這對 Atlas 組織來說意味著什麼。

I mean we're very, very excited about the opportunity with power. And when we bought Moser, we did buy a well-established power company that's providing cash flow from the start. So it is a cash flowing business. There's some -- obviously, some big opportunities out there for us. And we're still trying to work -- we're still working through those opportunities.

我的意思是，我們對擁有權力的機會感到非常非常興奮。當我們收購 Moser 時，我們確實收購了一家從一開始就提供現金流的知名電力公司。所以這是一項現金流業務。顯然，我們面臨著一些巨大的機會。我們仍在努力工作——我們仍在努力抓住這些機會。

We are -- I think one thing is that the market is very inefficient when it comes on the power side of the business. And I think coming from the standpoint of we did a sand business and disruptive, and that's the reason why we got into the business is because we thought it was there was an opportunity for us to operate efficiently and help our customers save money.

我們是——我認為一件事是，當涉及到業務的電力方面時，市場效率非常低。我認為，從我們從事沙子業務和顛覆性業務的角度來看，我們進入這個行業的原因是因為我們認為這是一個讓我們高效運作並幫助我們的客戶省錢的機會。

But we're very excited about what we're seeing. And we'll have more about that to say, probably the reason we're still working some things, but we don't have much -- we don't have a lot of comments on it because it's just that we haven't owned it that long. But very needless to say, it's a very exciting opportunity, and we'll have more about that say the future.

但我們對所看到的一切感到非常興奮。我們對此還有更多要說的，這可能是我們仍在做一些事情的原因，但我們沒有太多 - 我們對此沒有很多評論，因為我們擁有它的時間並不長。但毋庸置疑，這是一個非常令人興奮的機會，未來我們將對此有更多了解。

Appreciate that. And maybe as a follow-up, one of the things over the last few quarters, we've obviously you guys in the whole industry endured some pretty soft sand pricing. Historically, after some period of time, that soft sand pricing at or in some cases, below where other people's OpEx is, you tend to start seeing some supply impacts and you've had some consolidation in the space here recently.

非常感謝。也許作為後續行動，過去幾個季度發生的事情之一，我們顯然發現整個行業都經歷了相當疲軟的定價。從歷史上看，經過一段時間後，當軟沙定價達到或低於其他人的營運支出時，你往往會開始看到一些供應影響，而且最近該領域出現了一些整合。

Just curious what you all are seeing on the sand supply side if we're kind of headed towards some of your competitors dialing back output or closing mines or what have you, like we saw through the last downturn.

我只是好奇，如果我們正朝著一些競爭對手減少產量或關閉礦場或發生其他事情的方向發展，就像我們在上次經濟衰退中看到的那樣，你們在沙子供應方面看到了什麼。

Yes. Maybe I'll start by addressing a little bit of thoughts on the supply side, and then we can kind of walk into a little bit of the pricing side of it, right? So look, on the supply side, I think you hit the nail on head. We believe that those capacity additions have really peaked out some customers that we've seen just driven by have started to reduce shifts or idle production coping competitors have been idle in production, particularly with those high cost mines and disadvantaged operations that we've seen.

是的。也許我會先談談供應方面的一些想法，然後我們可以再談談定價方面的問題，對嗎？所以，從供應方面來看，我認為你說得很對。我們認為，這些產能增加確實已經達到頂峰，我們看到一些客戶已經開始減少班次或閒置生產，以應對競爭對手的閒置生產，特別是那些成本高昂的礦山和處於不利地位的運營。

Approximately, call it, 100 million tonnes a year of nameplate capacity in the Permian and spot prices in that mid-teen, mid- to high teens area. We do see additional rationalization really being forced into the market, right? You see the recent competitor consolidations that have gone out there with pricing at or below that breakeven pricing of their manufacturing price.

二疊紀盆地的額定產能約為每年 1 億噸，現貨價格則在十幾歲到十幾歲之間。我們確實看到額外的合理化措施正在被強制推向市場，對嗎？您會看到，最近的競爭對手合併定價都處於或低於其製造價格的損益兩平價格。

We see this though as long term, very constructive for the industry. I think we're really well positioned there. I mean, look, we've been through this down cycle before, right? We know the playbook, we came out of the last downturn in a position of strength in the market. And we don't think this market is any different than that.

但我們認為，從長遠來看，這對產業來說非常有建設性。我認為我們在這方面處於非常有利的位置。我的意思是，你看，我們以前經歷過這個衰退週期，對吧？我們知道策略，我們在上次市場低迷時期處於強勢地位。我們認為這個市場與此並沒有什麼不同。

Because if you look at now, we have significant structural advantages on a total delivered cost basis by the additions of the Mobile Mini mines and the Dune Express as part of our [ammo box] there. From the pricing side of things, right? We all know, I mean current low-price environment, the operators are under increased pressure reduce costs all the way across their value chain, right?

因為如果你現在看一下，透過在我們的彈藥箱中添加移動式迷你地雷和沙丘快車，我們在總交付成本方面具有顯著的結構優勢。從定價方面來說，對嗎？我們都知道，我的意思是，在當前的低價環境下，營運商在整個價值鏈中面臨越來越大的降低成本的壓力，對嗎？

They're focused on sand pricing and overall completion costs. I think the due press really and the Encore plants, we got to take a step back and look at that FOB pricing versus a total delivered cost pricing. I think you've heard us for a while now. stress those total delivery cost solution, which accounts for the logistics, transportation, infrastructure integration.

他們關注的是沙子定價和整體完井成本。我認為，對於真正的壓力和 Encore 工廠，我們必須退一步來看看 FOB 定價與總交付成本定價。我想你已經聽我們說了一段時間了。強調那些總交付成本解決方案，其中包括物流、運輸、基礎設施整合。

And I think people are really looking for more than competitive pricing at the line from an FOB perspective, they're looking for that comprehensive cost-effective solution that delivers it all the way to the well site at the total lowest possible cost. And that's really where, again, Dune Express noncore coming to play here, with integrated logistics solutions that really provides that efficiency and total lowest delivered cost to our customers.

我認為人們真正尋求的不僅僅是從離岸價角度來看具有競爭力的定價，他們還在尋求一種全面的、具有成本效益的解決方案，能夠以盡可能低的總成本將原油運送到油井現場。這就是 Dune Express 非核心業務真正發揮作用的地方，它透過整合的物流解決方案真正為我們的客戶提供效率和最低的總交付成本。

But from a value proposition basis, we've really stopped looking at sand pricing and looked at that total delivery cost and efficiencies are the top priorities for the operators out there today.

但從價值主張的角度來看，我們其實不再關注沙子定價，而是認為總運輸成本和效率才是當今業者的首要任務。

Atidrip Modak, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的 Atidrip Modak。

I guess on the deferred volumes, it sounds like it's on the noncontracted volumes. Can you give us any more color on what the nature of the conversation there is? It sounds like there might be some flexibility on ramping that up? Anything around that? And then could you divert these volumes to some other producers? How should we think about it?

我猜想就延期交易量而言，聽起來就像是非合約交易量。能否進一步說明一下談話的性質？聽起來好像在提升這一點上可能會有一些彈性？有這方面的事情嗎？然後你能將這些產量轉移給其他生產商嗎？我們該如何思考這個問題？

Yes. So I mean, really, the project tolls were mainly driven by macro uncertainty. So some of these move-ups, I've seen their start-up dates pushed out in the second half of the year from this quarter because that's the indication as of now. Operators just aren't willing to commit to more volumes until they have a better graph of where their plans are going forward.

是的。所以我的意思是，專案費用其實主要是由宏觀不確定性所驅動的。因此，我看到其中一些舉措的啟動日期從本季度開始被推遲到下半年，因為這是目前的跡象。除非營運商能夠更好地了解其計劃的進展情況，否則他們不願意承諾增加產量。

Again, existing products are moving along as planned. It's a consistent theme that we've heard about this earnings season. But it's just new incremental work is unfold that's unfortunately is that incremental EBITDA from the sand logistics job utilizing Express is rather significant. That's what's changing that is causing us to change guidance. There are opportunities out there.

再次，現有產品正在按計劃進行。這是我們在本財報季聽到的一個一致主題。但這只是新的增量工作正在展開，不幸的是，利用 Express 的沙地物流工作所帶來的增量 EBITDA 相當可觀。這些變化促使我們改變指導方針。那裡有很多機會。

We expect -- as people get their feet under them, figure out the lay of the land, we do expect new opportunities to surface -- and as Chris alluded to Atlas's in a position just a competitive advantage with our total delivered cost of sand is that there's really -- we are in the catbird seat when it comes from a competitive positioning standpoint.

我們預計 - 隨著人們站穩腳跟，弄清楚地形，我們確實預計新的機會會出現 - 正如克里斯提到的，阿特拉斯所處的競爭優勢在於我們的沙子總交付成本確實 - 從競爭定位的角度來看，我們處於有利地位。

And so we expect to go out there and get those as they come around. But just on the time being, I think advice is trying to figure out the new lay of the land.

因此，我們希望在它們出現時就去那裡得到它們。但就目前而言，我認為建議正在試圖弄清楚新的情況。

Yes, I think just to add on, right? Our focus really there is to secure those long-term commitments that aligns with our logistics infrastructure and structural advantages from those Dune express.

是的，我想只是補充一下，對嗎？我們的重點實際上是確保與我們的物流基礎設施和 Dune Express 的結構優勢一致的長期承諾。

Got it. Appreciate that. And apologies if I missed this earlier, but Blake, could you talk about where the price is on the contracted volumes. And where -- what your perspective is on what happens to those price levels in the second half of the year in terms of the FOB price you were talking about?

知道了。非常感謝。如果我之前錯過了這一點，我很抱歉，但是布萊克，你能談談合約量的價格是多少嗎？並且——就您談論的離岸價而言，您對下半年價格水平會發生什麼變化有何看法？

On the allocated tons, the $22 million of allocated tons, those are that low 20s that we've been at over the last few quarters, next shortfall revenues will continue to be at those levels with slight declines as just legacy contracts roll off. The spot price of staying right now is in the mid- to high teens. So as we -- any incremental volumes that we do book would be dilutive to that average sales price, but we would be very accretive to the overall consolidated margin.

就分配噸位而言，2,200 萬美元的分配噸位，是我們過去幾個季度一直處於的 20 多美元的水平，下一次短缺收入將繼續保持在這些水平，隨著遺留合約的到期，收入將略有下降。目前住宿的現貨價格在十五到十幾美元之間。因此，我們預訂的任何增量都會稀釋平均銷售價格，但會大大增加整體合併利潤率。

Just point out like our variable cost in our legacy mines is $4 to $5 a ton. So anything that we can add on in terms of incremental volumes is going to be due through our financials. Then you add on top of that, the margins that we get off of our logistics. And so -- there's -- I would expect that price to continue to decline just with the current environment, but that's not necessarily negative standpoint.

只要指出我們原有礦場的變動成本是每噸 4 至 5 美元。因此，我們可以增加的任何增量都將透過我們的財務來實現。然後在此基礎上加上我們從物流中獲得的利潤。因此，我預計在當前環境下價格將繼續下降，但這不一定是負面觀點。

And I think it's for to remember, I mean we're talking about total delivered costs here, and that's what our customers are looking at. They're not necessarily looking at a in-price or looking at a combined price. And when you compare that to what our OpEx and delivery cost is, that's where you start really seeing -- you're going to start seeing the benefits once we start seeing why activity come off to do in Dune Express, but we expect that to happen as we go through the year.

我認為需要記住的是，我們在這裡討論的是總交付成本，這也是我們的客戶所關注的。他們不一定會關注入庫價格或綜合價格。當你將其與我們的營運成本和交付成本進行比較時，你就會開始真正看到這一點——一旦我們開始了解為什麼在 Dune Express 中進行活動，你就會開始看到好處，但我們預計這會在全年發生。

Eddie Kim, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Eddie Kim。

Just wanted to ask some more color on the deferrals of the development projects. Were these concentrated to a few large customers? Or was this more kind of a broad-based deferral activity across your customer base? And I know you mentioned that these are being deferred into the latter half of this year. What's your confidence level at this point in that second half target and not potentially being deferred further out into 2026.

只是想詢問一些有關開發項目延期的詳細資訊。這些是否集中在少數大客戶？或者這是針對您的客戶群的廣泛的延期活動？我知道您提到這些將被推遲到今年下半年。目前，您對下半年目標的信心程度如何？該目標可能不會被推遲到 2026 年。

Eddie, I think it'd be quite a bit of hubris to say I know exactly what's going to happen in the market right now. But I think it's really -- customers are in the same boat that we're in right now, where the ground is shifting underneath them. So really, they're pulling back the reins on deploying it in old CapEx until they get a little bit more clarity on where things are headed to par.

艾迪，我認為，如果我說我確切地知道現在市場會發生什麼，那就太傲慢了。但我認為，客戶現在確實和我們處境相同，他們所處的情況正在改變。因此，實際上，他們正在收回在舊資本支出中部署它的控制權，直到他們更清楚地了解事情的發展方向。

So it wasn't just one customer. There are several projects there. That both on the mobile mine side and then on the Dune Express side. We're just kind of a general pause in the market. And I think that, that's been pretty clear in the commentary you've seen from the public E&Ps recently, where s lot of the news that came out last night was used to us.

所以，這不只是一個顧客。那裡有幾個項目。這既在移動礦井方面，又在 Dune Express 方面。我們只是處於市場普遍暫停的狀態。我認為，這一點在您最近從公共 E&P 看到的評論中已經非常清楚了，其中昨晚發布的許多新聞對我們來說都是習慣性的。

We've been having those conversations with customers for a while. It's something that we're aware of, but we're having active dialogue with them where they're looking to save on their AFEs, and Atlas is a way that they can start to some of those savings. And so we're continuing to push there and show them the math and I think that it's starting to catch some attention.

我們已經與客戶進行了一段時間的對話。我們知道這一點，但我們正在與他們進行積極的對話，他們希望節省 AFE，而 Atlas 是他們開始節省部分費用的一種方式。因此，我們將繼續努力並向他們展示數學成果，我認為這開始引起一些關注。

Got it. And apologies if I missed this, but it sounds like you're expectation for total volumes this year is now 22 million tons, which represents that commit or contracted capacity. Just given current market conditions, is it possible that some of that 22 million tons slips into '26? Or how confident in you that 22 million tons will be delivered this year?

知道了。如果我錯過了這一點，請原諒，但聽起來您對今年總產量的預期是 2200 萬噸，這代表了承諾或合約產能。就目前的市場狀況而言，這 2,200 萬噸中的一部分是否有可能進入 26 年？或者您對今年交付2200萬噸有多大信心？

So the 22 million is what we have allocated currently. We did say in the prepared remarks, there's about 3 million tons of pending opportunities. So about total, yes, about more than 3 million tons. So there is a path to get back to that 25 million of tons. It's just we wanted to be transparent with the market where pay like the realities of the market is that oil prices have come off.

所以2200萬就是我們目前分配的金額。我們確實在準備好的發言中說過，大約有 300 萬噸待定機會。總體來說，是的，大約有 300 多萬噸。因此，有一條途徑可以恢復到2500萬噸的產量。我們只是希望對市場保持透明，就像市場的現實情況一樣，油價已經下跌。

It's a giant circular reference where operators are going to pull back on CapEx. And so it just seemed a little full hurting and say, hey, we're going to be able to go out there and generate volumes when people are spending money. So I think we have a fair bit of confidence in that 22 million tonnes and a bit of -- we're optimistic about some of those incremental volumes. But wanted to be very, very transparent with our investor base that's really where sense it right now.

這是一個巨大的循環參考，營運商將減少資本支出。因此，這似乎有點痛苦，並且說，嘿，當人們花錢時，我們將能夠出去並產生大量收入。所以我認為我們對這 2200 萬噸有相當大的信心，而且我們對其中一些增量持樂觀態度。但我們希望對我們的投資者群體保持非常非常透明，這就是我們現在真正意識到的。

And I think it's important because we're listening to what our customers are telling us, and that's why we're more conservative on our forecast for the second quarter we said we don't really see any near-term upside in this market. However, obviously, if things change, you start to see an uptick in commodity prices, you get more clarity on what's happening and what the tariffs I think there's obviously some potential upside there for additional volumes to come on.

我認為這很重要，因為我們正在傾聽客戶的意見，這就是為什麼我們對第二季的預測更加保守，我們說我們確實沒有看到這個市場在短期內有任何上漲空間。然而，顯然，如果情況發生變化，你會開始看到大宗商品價格上漲，你會更清楚地了解正在發生的事情和關稅，我認為，這顯然為增加交易量提供了一些潛在的上升空間。

But this is just what we're hearing from our customers, and we sell to a lot of -- most of the operators in the Permian. And so we're not -- I mean -- so the 3 million tons, they could come, and it would be great if they did. But at this point in time, we just don't have any clarity on that because we're just repeating what we've been what we've been told.

但這只是我們從客戶那裡聽到的，我們的產品銷往二疊紀盆地的大多數營運商。所以我們不是 — — 我的意思是 — — 所以 300 萬噸，他們可以來，如果他們來了那就太好了。但目前，我們對此還沒有任何清晰的認識，因為我們只是在重複我們所聽到的內容。

Going just add just briefly on John's comments. I mean, right now, we happen to have this call during peak uncertainty. I mean -- and uncertainty is the biggest issue for our industry right now, not knowing where oil prices are going to be, and that's -- that directly drives their activity. So once we get beyond this and wherever we get the on tariffs and all this uncertainty in the market, I think that's when we'll start to see the benefits of this cycle.

我只是想簡單補充約翰的評論。我的意思是，現在，我們恰好在最不確定的時候接到了這個電話。我的意思是——不確定性是我們產業目前面臨的最大問題，不知道油價將會走向何方，而這直接驅動著他們的活動。因此，一旦我們克服了這個問題，無論關稅和市場上的所有不確定性，我認為我們就會開始看到這個週期的好處。

Atlas tends to benefit from this is a low-cost producer that's logistically advantaged to the wellhead in and we're going to benefit on the other side of this because we're able to produce through the cycles, and we're going to have more of the market share on the other side of this and more prostate power.

Atlas 傾向於從中受益，因為它是一家低成本生產商，在物流方面具有優勢，而我們將從中受益，因為我們能夠在整個週期內進行生產，並且我們將在另一方面擁有更多的市場份額和更強的前列腺力量。

There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to John Turner, CEO, for any closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我想將發言權交還給執行長約翰·特納 (John Turner)，請他發表最後評論。

All right. Thank you, guys. Thank you, everybody, for joining. Obviously, very excited about what's going on with the company that Dune Express. Obviously, there's a lot of uncertainty in the market. But assets built like we said in our prepared remarks, Atlas is a company that was booked to withstand and to go through these ups and downs and these down cycles and then to come through stronger. We look forward to reporting our second quarter numbers in August.

好的。謝謝你們。謝謝大家的參與。顯然，人們對 Dune Express 公司的發展感到非常興奮。顯然，市場存在著許多不確定性。但正如我們在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，Atlas 是一家能夠承受並經歷這些起伏和下行週期，然後變得更強大的公司。我們期待在八月報告第二季的數據。

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

今天的會議到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。