American Eagle Outfitters Inc (AEO) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the American Eagle Outfitters fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Judy Meehan. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 American Eagle Outfitters 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在我很高興介紹朱迪·米漢。請繼續。

Good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today for our prepared remarks are Jay Schottenstein, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jen Foyle, President, Executive Creative Director for American Eagle and Aerie; and Mike Mathias, Chief Financial Officer.

大家下午好。今天與我一起發表準備好的演講的還有執行董事長兼執行長傑伊‧蕭滕斯坦 (Jay Schottenstein)； Jen Foyle，American Eagle 和 Aerie 總裁兼執行創意總監；以及財務長 Mike Mathias。

Before I begin today's call, I need to remind you that we will make certain forward-looking statements. These statements are based upon information that represents the company's current expectations or beliefs. Results actually realized may differ materially based on risk factors included in our SEC filings. The company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

在我開始今天的電話會議之前，我需要提醒您，我們將做出某些前瞻性的陳述。這些聲明是基於代表公司當前期望或信念的資訊。實際實現的結果可能會根據我們提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件中包含的風險因素而存在重大差異。除非法律要求，否則本公司不承擔公開更新或修改任何前瞻性聲明的義務，無論是否出現新資訊、未來事件或其他原因。

Also, please note that during this call and in the accompanying press release, certain financial metrics are presented on both a GAAP and non-GAAP adjusted basis. Reconciliations of adjusted results to the GAAP results are available in the tables attached to the earnings release, which is posted on our corporate website at www.aeo-inc.com in the Investor Relations section. Here, you can also find the fourth quarter and fiscal year investor presentation.

另請注意，在本次電話會議和隨附的新聞稿中，某些財務指標是按照 GAAP 和非 GAAP 調整後的基礎呈現的。調整後結果與 GAAP 結果的對帳表可在收益報告附表中找到，該報告發佈在我們公司網站 www.aeo-inc.com 的「投資者關係」部分。在這裡，您還可以找到第四季度和財年投資者介紹。

And now I'll turn the call over to Jay.

現在我將電話轉給傑伊。

Thanks, Judy, and good afternoon, everyone. 2024 was a solid year for AEO. We launched our new Powering Profitable Growth strategy and aligning the organization's focus on three key priorities: amplify our brands, optimize our operations and execute with financial discipline.

謝謝，朱迪，大家下午好。 2024 年對 AEO 來說是豐收的一年。我們推出了新的「推動獲利成長」策略，並將組織的重點放在三個關鍵優先事項上：擴大我們的品牌、優化我們的營運和嚴格執行財務紀律。

And we achieved excellent results. Record revenue of $5.3 billion was fueled by 4% comparable sales growth, reflecting positive momentum across brands and channels. Adjusted operating profit of $445 million marked one of our strongest years in history, and we drove significant operating margin expansion. This included strong fourth quarter results, which came in slightly ahead of the outlook provided in January.

並且取得了優異的成績。創紀錄的 53 億美元收入得益於 4% 的可比銷售額成長，反映出各品牌和通路的正面動能。調整後的營業利潤為 4.45 億美元，這是我們歷史上最強勁的年份之一，並且我們實現了營業利潤率的大幅擴大。其中包括強勁的第四季度業績，略高於一月份給出的預期。

Comparable sales grew 3%, building on an 8% increase in the fourth quarter and 2023. Aerie comp sales rose 6%, and American Eagle was up 1%. Additionally, fourth quarter operating income of $142 million was the highest we've delivered in over a decade with good operating margin expansion. Full year cash flow from operations was over $470 million, and we returned over $280 million to our shareholders in the form of buybacks and dividends.

可比銷售額成長 3%，此前第四季和 2023 年的增幅分別為 8%。Aerie 同店銷售額上漲 6%，American Eagle 銷售額上漲 1%。此外，第四季的營業收入為 1.42 億美元，是十多年來的最高水平，並且營業利潤率也有良好的擴大。全年經營現金流超過 4.7 億美元，我們以回購和股利的形式向股東返還了超過 2.8 億美元。

Reflecting on year 1 of our plan, we had some clear wins, yet meaningful opportunities remain, and we are fine-tuning our strategy moving forward. Touching on a few highlights. Within our Amplify pillar, both American Eagle and Aerie continued to resonate strongly with customers this year, delivering positive comp growth and expanding their customer accounts.

回顧我們計劃的第一年，我們取得了一些明顯的勝利，但仍然存在著有意義的機會，我們正在微調我們未來的策略。談談一些亮點。在我們的 Amplify 支柱內，American Eagle 和 Aerie 今年都繼續與客戶產生強烈共鳴，實現了積極的成長並擴大了客戶帳戶。

American Eagle maintained its number 1 ranking in denim with our core customer base and achieved its sixth consecutive quarter of positive comp growth. Women's was a standout, reflecting strong traction with new dressing occasions. Men's saw sequential improvement. And as Jen will share, we remain focused on reinvigorating growth.

American Eagle 在我們的核心客戶群中繼續保持牛仔布領域的第一名，並連續六個季度實現了正增長。女裝表現突出，反映出新著裝場合的強大吸引力。男子成績連續進步。正如 Jen 所說，我們仍然致力於重振成長。

Turning to Aerie. We crossed $1.7 billion in revenue in 2024. Soft apparel and our activewear collection, OFFLINE, were the big highlights more than offsetting softness in intimates and swim. I am pleased to note that in leggings, we are now the number 2 ranked specialty brand with our core demo. As Jen will review shortly, we have targeted strategies across Aerie and OFFLINE to continue strong growth through greater brand awareness and expanding our collections.

轉向 Aerie。2024 年，我們的營收將突破 17 億美元。柔軟的服裝和我們的運動服系列 OFFLINE 是最大的亮點，足以抵消內衣和泳衣的柔軟度。我很高興地註意到，在緊身褲領域，我們現在憑藉我們的核心產品成為了排名第二的專業品牌。正如 Jen 稍後會談到的，我們已針對 Aerie 和 OFFLINE 制定了針對性策略，透過提高品牌知名度和擴大我們的產品系列來繼續實現強勁增長。

Moving on to Optimize pillar. In 2024, we placed a heightened emphasis on improving our operating capabilities. As Mike will review, we made strategic investments in our store fleet and digital platform to support growth across channels. And we continue to build speed and agility in our supply chain while ensuring we are delivering the best products and value to our customers.

繼續優化支柱。2024年，我們更加重視提升營運能力。正如 Mike 所回顧的，我們對門市和數位平台進行了策略性投資，以支援跨通路的成長。我們將繼續提高供應鏈的速度和靈活性，同時確保為客戶提供最好的產品和價值。

Lastly, on to our third pillar, execute with financial discipline, we maintained sharp control over expenses and [rug] efficiencies across the business, yielding improved profit flow-through. In short, we executed on our strategic initiatives, demonstrating the power of our iconic brands, and made structural improvements to fuel long-term success.

最後，關於我們的第三大支柱，嚴格執行財務紀律，我們嚴格控制費用並提高整個業務的效率，從而提高利潤流轉。簡而言之，我們執行了策略舉措，展示了我們標誌性品牌的力量，並進行了結構性改進以推動長期成功。

Now as we shared in our press release this morning, 2025 has started off softer than anticipated. First quarter date sales have been impacted by a less robust consumer environment and cold weather. For the year, ongoing consumer uncertainty and changes in the operating landscape, including tariffs and strength in US dollar, are also creating factors for us to navigate.

正如我們今天早上的新聞稿中所述，2025 年的開局比預期要疲軟。第一季的椰棗銷售受到消費環境不佳和寒冷天氣的影響。今年，持續的消費者不確定性和經營格局的變化（包括關稅和美元走強）也是我們難以應對的因素。

Against this backdrop, we currently expect full year revenue and operating income to be down relative to last year. Jen and team are focused on driving improvements to strengthen top line growth.

在此背景下，我們目前預計全年收入和營業收入將比去年下降。Jen 和團隊致力於推動改善以加強營收成長。

Additionally, as Mike will review, we are taking proactive action to drive additional expense savings. With the benefit of both top line and cost initiatives building throughout the year, I am confident that we can improve business performance as the year progresses.

此外，正如 Mike 所回顧的那樣，我們正在採取積極行動來節省額外的開支。隨著全年營收和成本計畫效益的不斷提高，我相信我們能夠隨著時間的推移提高業務績效。

Lastly, as we review our capital allocation plan moving forward, we are increasing our share repurchase authorization. Factoring the high level of confidence we have in our long-term growth prospects, we will continue to be opportunistic with our share repurchase program, building on the nearly $200 million in buybacks completed in 2024.

最後，在我們審查未來的資本配置計畫時，我們正在增加股票回購授權。考慮到我們對長期成長前景的高度信心，我們將繼續把握機會實施股票回購計劃，並在 2024 年完成近 2 億美元回購的基礎上繼續推進。

Before I turn the call over to Jen, I want to underscore the strength of our brands, operation and talent. We have been through challenging times before, and we've always emerged stronger. I know our team's determination, focus and creativity will continue to drive us forward. With that, I'll pass it to Jen.

在我將電話轉給 Jen 之前，我想強調我們的品牌、營運和人才的實力。我們以前也經歷過困難時期，但我們總是會變得更強大。我知道我們團隊的決心、專注和創造力將繼續推動我們前進。說完這些，我就把它傳給 Jen。

Thanks, Jay, and good afternoon, everyone. As noted, we made great progress in amplifying our brands in 2024, delivering a 4% increase in comparable sales. This builds on a 3% full year comp in 2023.

謝謝傑伊，大家下午好。如上所述，我們在 2024 年擴大品牌方面取得了巨大進展，可比銷售額成長了 4%。這是基於 2023 年全年 3% 的增幅。

I will start today by reviewing our key wins and learnings. Let me start with American Eagle, our flagship brand that has dressed generations since 1977. After a multiyear focus on rebuilding profitability, last year, we turned our focus to growth, with encouraging results. Comparable sales increased 3%, accelerating from 1% the prior year. Additionally, our customer count rose to 18.6 million, reflecting on an all-time high driven by growth across genders.

今天我將首先回顧我們的主要勝利和經驗教訓。首先要說一下 American Eagle，這是我們的旗艦品牌，自 1977 年以來一直為幾代人提供服裝。經過多年致力於重建獲利能力之後，去年，我們將重點轉向成長，並取得了令人鼓舞的成績。可比銷售額成長 3%，高於上年的 1%。此外，我們的客戶數量上升至 1,860 萬，創下歷史新高，這得益於性別平等增長。

Women's was a true highlight, where we achieved high single-digit comps. Our market-leading denim business continued to grow in the mid-single digits as we introduce new fashion, washes and silhouettes. Skirts and dresses delivered a record year, fueled by our expansion into social casual occasions. And the tops category doubled, as we offered more fashion styles in line with our focus on completing the outfit and improving our tops to bottoms ratio.

女子比賽是真正的亮點，我們取得了高個位數的成績。隨著我們推出新的時尚、水洗和輪廓，我們市場領先的牛仔布業務繼續以中等個位數成長。由於我們向社交休閒場合的擴張，裙子和洋裝的銷售量創下了歷史新高。上衣類別增加了一倍，因為我們提供了更多的時尚款式，符合我們對完善服裝和改善上衣與下裝比例的關注。

In men's, we made progress. Our customer count increased, validating the ongoing strength of our customer base. Expansion into adjacencies like activewear with 24/7 are tracking well. Pants wrote another year of positive comps, fueled by social casual introductions, and we are pleased to see men's tops return to growth in the fourth quarter.

在男子方面，我們取得了進步。我們的客戶數量不斷增加，證明了我們客戶基礎的持續強大。向諸如 24/7 運動服等鄰近領域的擴張進展順利。在社交休閒裝推出的推動下，褲子類別再創一年的良好業績，我們很高興看到男士上衣類別在第四季度恢復增長。

Now looking ahead, we continue to see incredible growth opportunities across genders. In women's, this includes introducing more diversity in our assortments across bottoms, dresses and tops to provide more dressing options. On the men's side, we are integrating more active looks and performance fabrics where we have seen a positive reception to date. Additionally, we are enhancing our price/value equation for basics by delivering greater optionality at opening price points.

展望未來，我們將繼續看到各個性別都存在著令人難以置信的成長機會。在女裝方面，這包括在我們的下裝、連身裙和上衣系列中推出更多多樣性，以提供更多的穿衣選擇。在男裝方面，我們正在整合更具活力的外觀和高性能面料，到目前為止，我們看到了積極的反響。此外，我們還透過在開盤價位上提供更多的可選性來增強基本產品的價格/價值等式。

Turning to Aerie. 2024 was another strong year. Revenue hit a new record, fueled by a 5% comparable sales increase. And we grew our customer count to 11.8 million. This is an all-time high as we expanded our reach and brand awareness with stores and marketing initiatives. Two clear wins in the year were our soft apparel and activewear businesses, both of which saw double-digit growth.

轉向 Aerie。 2024 年又是強勁的一年。受可比銷售額 5% 成長的推動，營收創下新高。我們的客戶數量成長至 1,180 萬。這是一個歷史新高，因為我們透過商店和行銷活動擴大了我們的影響力和品牌知名度。我們今年取得的兩大明顯勝利是軟裝和運動服業務，都實現了兩大的成長。

In soft apparel, we continued to win in cozy fleece, sweaters and new fashion items. Additionally, our extension into sleepwear was a huge success.

在軟服裝方面，我們繼續在舒適羊毛衫、毛衣和新時尚單品方面獲勝。此外，我們在睡衣領域的拓展也取得了巨大的成功。

In activewear, OFFLINE by Aerie saw strength in leggings, sports bras, fleece and shorts. Our powerful platform, combined with our winning price, quality and value equation, continues to differentiate us in the market.

在運動服方面，OFFLINE by Aerie 發現緊身褲、運動胸罩、羊毛衫和短褲表現強勁。我們強大的平台，加上我們優勝的價格、品質和價值等式，使我們在市場上繼續脫穎而出。

And as Jay noted, we are number 2 in the leggings category. Intimates and swim were down last year, driven by ongoing challenges across the industry. Yet I'm happy to note that we grew our share in intimates across core bras and undies, fueled by innovation, with our SMOOTHEZ collection and new novelty fabrications like lace.

正如傑伊所說，我們在緊身褲類別中排名第二。由於整個產業持續面臨的挑戰，去年內衣和泳裝銷量均出現下滑。然而，我很高興地註意到，透過創新，我們憑藉 SMOOTHEZ 系列和蕾絲等新奇面料，在核心胸罩和內衣領域中的市場份額有所增長。

The long-term runway for Aerie is significant. OFFLINE is our biggest growth opportunity across the company. We are continuing to broaden brand awareness, build equity and famous for franchises like Real Me and add more performance styles. In apparel, we are leaning into innovation through seasonal drops.

Aerie 的長期發展道路十分重要。線下是我們整個公司最大的成長機會。我們將繼續擴大品牌知名度、打造資產，並以 Real Me 等特許經營而聞名，並增加更多的表演風格。在服裝方面，我們正透過季節性降價來實現創新。

We are also excited to build on our success in sleep by transforming it into a year-round franchise. In intimates, we see opportunity to reenergize our basics offerings with new base layers and styles focused on everything from life to lounge. And at the same time, we will also invest to elevate franchise collections like SMOOTHEZ, where we are building a strong following.

我們也很高興能夠將睡眠業務轉變為全年特許經營，從而鞏固我們在睡眠業務方面的成功。在內衣方面，我們看到了重新註入基本款產品的機會，透過新的基礎層和款式，滿足從生活到休閒等各個方面的需要。同時，我們也將投資提升 SMOOTHEZ 等特許經營系列，我們正在這些系列中培養大量追隨者。

In addition to product enhancements across brands, we will continue to invest in marketing. We will leverage learnings from optimization work streams in 2024 to speak to our customer base more effectively. We are highly focused on growing where our customers are across social media in a bigger way, with a focus on favorite and emerging platforms. We also have an exciting new AE men's campaign planned for the second half of the year.

除了各品牌的產品升級之外，我們還將繼續在行銷方面進行投資。我們將利用 2024 年優化工作流程中的經驗，更有效地與我們的客戶群溝通。我們高度專注於在社群媒體上更大程度地發展我們的客戶，並專注於最受歡迎的平台和新興平台。我們也計劃在今年下半年推出令人興奮的全新 AE 男裝活動。

And now entering 2025, it's important to note that we are cycling a strong spring season from last year when we saw nicely positive results across brands. This spring, we have been facing headwinds. Colder weather has clearly been a factor, as well as some uncertainty with the consumer. As I will discuss, we also had some out-of-stocks in big categories, as well as product opportunities, which we have been working hard to correct.

現在進入 2025 年，值得注意的是，我們從去年開始迎來強勁的春季，當時我們看到各個品牌都取得了積極的成果。今年春天，我們一直面臨逆風。寒冷的天氣顯然是一個因素，而且消費者也有一些不確定性。正如我將要討論的，我們在大類別以及產品機會方面也存在一些缺貨的情況，我們一直在努力糾正這些問題。

Quarter-to-date, while we have continued to see positive traffic into AE and Aerie across channels, demand has been softer than anticipated. From a category standpoint, bare looks such as shorts and tees have been soft, while cold weather items like sweaters have outperformed.

本季迄今為止，雖然我們繼續看到 AE 和 Aerie 在各個管道的流量呈正增長，但需求卻弱於預期。從類別角度來看，短褲和 T 恤等裸色服飾表現疲軟，而毛衣等寒冷天氣單品則表現出色。

Fashion items are checking with positive trends in categories like dresses at AE and soft apparel and activewear at Aerie. Of note, we have seen warmer markets perform better overall. We have also been chasing high-demand denim styles to manage outages in some of our best-selling items. We are working hard to address the current business trends and thoroughly reviewing assortment opportunities for upcoming seasons.

AE 的連身裙以及 Aerie 的軟服裝和運動服等類別的時尚單品呈現積極的趨勢。值得注意的是，我們看到較溫暖的市場整體表現較好。我們也一直在追逐高需求的牛仔款式，以解決一些暢銷產品的缺貨問題。我們正在努力應對當前的商業趨勢，並徹底審查即將到來的季節的品種機會。

In light of ongoing consumer uncertainty, we are also leaving open-to-buy for the back half of the year while ensuring we are in stock in the right items.

鑑於消費者的持續不確定性，我們也將在今年下半年保持開放的採購態度，同時確保有合適的商品庫存。

And before I turn the call over to Mike, I want to thank the teams for a successful 2024 and maintaining such strong focus through the near-term bumps in the road. Overall, we remain very excited about the long-term opportunity to grow our incredible portfolio of brands. We are acting on what we can control, staying disciplined and maximizing flexibility to drive performance. And with that, I will turn the call over to Mike.

在我將電話轉給麥克之前，我想感謝團隊在 2024 年取得成功，並在短期內遇到困難時保持如此高度的專注。總體而言，我們對於長期擴大我們令人難以置信的品牌組合的機會仍然感到非常興奮。我們根據自己能夠控制的範圍採取行動，保持紀律，並最大限度地提高靈活性以提高績效。說完這些，我將把電話轉給麥克。

Thanks, Jen, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm pleased with how we delivered the first year of our Powering Profitable Growth plan. While we experienced some choppiness in demand and unforeseen currency headwinds, we navigated with agility. We drove efficiencies across the business to deliver significant profit and margin expansion.

謝謝， Jen，大家下午好。我對我們「推動獲利成長」計畫第一年的實施感到非常滿意。雖然我們遇到了一些需求波動和不可預見的貨幣逆風，但我們仍保持靈活應對。我們提高了整個業務的效率，並實現了利潤和利潤率的大幅擴大。

As Jay noted, full year adjusted operating income of $445 million reflected a 19% increase to last year, hitting the high end of our long-term algorithm. Our adjusted operating margin expanded by 120 basis points to 8.3%. We closed the year on a positive note with strong fourth quarter results.

正如傑伊所言，全年調整後營業收入為 4.45 億美元，較去年同期成長 19%，達到我們長期演算法的高端。我們的調整後營業利益率擴大了 120 個基點，達到 8.3%。我們以強勁的第四季業績結束了這一年的積極局面。

Expanding on a few highlights. Fourth quarter consolidated revenue of $1.6 billion was down 4% to last year, reflecting an $85 million adverse impact from the retail calendar as previously discussed. Comparable sales increased 3%. Operating income was $142 million, up slightly to last year, including an approximately $20 million adverse impact from the retail calendar and approximately $10 million of adverse impact from the strengthening of the US dollar. Adjusted operating margin expanded 50 basis points to 8.9%.

擴展一些亮點。第四季綜合營收為 16 億美元，較去年同期下降 4%，反映出先前討論過的零售日曆帶來的 8,500 萬美元的不利影響。可比銷售額成長了 3%。營業收入為 1.42 億美元，較去年略有增長，其中包括零售日曆帶來的約 2,000 萬美元的不利影響以及美元走強帶來的約 1,000 萬美元的不利影響。調整後營業利益率擴大50個基點至8.9%。

Gross profit dollars were $599 million. The rate of 37.3% reflected higher freight and product costs, which were offset by lower markdowns. BOW costs were roughly neutral as we successfully offset deleverage associated with the retail calendar shift with efficiencies across several expense areas, including delivery and compensation.

毛利為5.99億美元。37.3% 的稅率反映出運費和產品成本的上漲，但卻被降價幅度的降低所抵銷。由於我們透過提高配送和補償等多個支出領域的效率，成功抵消了與零售日曆轉變相關的去槓桿化，因此 BOW 成本大致保持中性。

These efforts also had a positive impact on the SG&A line, which decreased 6% and leveraged 40 basis points as a rate of sales. The improvement was driven by lower compensation, including incentive costs, partially offset by higher advertising, where we made choiceful investments to support long-term growth.

這些努力也對銷售、一般及行政開支產生了積極影響，使其下降了 6%，並將銷售率提高了 40 個基點。這項改善主要得益於較低的薪酬（包括激勵成本），但被更高的廣告費用部分抵消，我們在廣告費用方面進行了有選擇性的投資，以支持長期成長。

Depreciation was down year-over-year, leveraging 10 basis points. The fourth quarter tax rate was 29.4%, and earnings per share was $0.54. Consolidated ending inventory cost was down 1% year-over-year as we maintained strong inventory control in a choppy demand environment.

折舊年減，槓桿率為 10 個基點。第四季稅率為29.4%，每股盈餘為0.54美元。由於我們在需求波動的環境下保持了強有力的庫存控制，合併期末庫存成本比去年同期下降了 1%。

As Jay noted, our healthy cash position allowed us to fuel investments in our business as well as return cash to shareholders. Fourth quarter CapEx totaled $65 million. Full year CapEx investments were $223 million. This included a rollout of our new store design to 56 stores, where results have been positive, and 22 new Aerie and OFFLINE locations.

正如傑伊所說，我們健康的現金狀況使我們能夠推動業務投資並向股東返還現金。第四季資本支出總計6500萬美元。全年資本支出為 2.23 億美元。其中包括在 56 家商店推出我們的新店面設計，效果良好，並且新增了 22 家 Aerie 和線下門市。

We returned approximately $24 million to shareholders through the fourth quarter cash dividend and completed $3.5 million in share repurchases amounting to $60 million. For the year, we repurchased a total of 9.5 million shares.

我們透過第四季現金股利向股東返還了約 2,400 萬美元，並完成了 350 萬美元的股票回購，總額達到 6,000 萬美元。今年我們總共回購了 950 萬股。

As Jay noted, we have upsized our share repurchase authorization, demonstrating strong confidence in our brands and long-term growth plan. We ended the year with a strong balance sheet with approximately $359 million in cash and investments and over $920 million of total liquidity, including our revolver.

正如傑伊所說，我們已經增加了股票回購授權，這表明我們對我們的品牌和長期成長計劃充滿信心。我們以強勁的資產負債表結束了這一財年，其中包括約 3.59 億美元的現金和投資以及超過 9.2 億美元的總流動資金（包括我們的循環信貸）。

Our 2024 financial results were strong proof points of our agility and expense discipline, and this work continues. As noted, 2025 has started off softer than anticipated. In light of this, Jen walked you through the actions she's taking on the top line.

我們的 2024 年財務表現有力證明了我們的敏捷性和費用紀律，這項工作仍在繼續。如上所述，2025年的開局比預期要疲軟。有鑑於此，Jen 向您介紹了她在營收方面採取的行動。

Additionally, we're taking proactive actions to pull back on expense plans for the year with a thorough assessment of all costs and capital spend. We're also actively working to further diversify our supply chain to mitigate tariff impacts.

此外，我們正在採取積極行動，透過全面評估所有成本和資本支出來縮減年度支出計劃。我們也積極努力進一步實現供應鏈多樣化，以減輕關稅的影響。

Our current outlook reflects the first quarter revenue decline in the mid-single digits, with operating income in the range of $20 million to $25 million. This includes an approximately $10 million negative impact from the strengthening of the US dollar. For the year, our outlook reflects revenue down in the low single digits, with operating income in the range of $360 million to $375 million.

我們目前的預測反映出第一季營收將下降中等個位數，營業收入將在 2,000 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元之間。其中包括因美元走強而造成的約1000萬美元的負面影響。對於今年，我們的預期是收入將下降到個位數以下，營業收入將在 3.6 億美元至 3.75 億美元之間。

This includes an approximately $20 million adverse impact for the strengthening of the US dollar and approximately $5 million to $10 million adverse impact from US tariffs on China, net of early mitigation strategies. We anticipate a mid-single-digit revenue decline in the first half, recovering to flat to slightly up in the back half, driven by improved merchandising, easier comparisons and a normalization of year-over-year currency headwinds.

其中包括美元走強造成的約 2000 萬美元的不利影響，以及美國對中國徵收關稅造成的約 500 萬至 1000 萬美元的不利影響（扣除早期緩解策略）。我們預計，上半年收入將出現中等個位數下滑，下半年將恢復至持平或略有上升，這得益於商品銷售改善、比較更容易以及同比貨幣逆風正常化。

Additionally, anticipates profit declines in the first half, with second half operating profit flat to last year's levels on improved top line trends, lower currency headwinds and its cost savings and tariff mitigation activities built through the year.

此外，預計上半年利潤將下降，但由於營收趨勢改善、貨幣逆風減弱以及全年的成本節約和關稅減免活動，下半年營業利潤將與去年水準持平。

For the first quarter and the year, the gross margin is expected to be down due to higher markdown activity, tariffs and BOW cost deleverage on the comp decline. SG&A dollars are expected to be flat to last year in the first quarter and down for the full year.

對於第一季和全年而言，由於降價活動增加、關稅和 BOW 成本去槓桿導致的同店銷售額下降，毛利率預計將下降。預計第一季銷售、一般及行政開支將與去年持平，全年將下降。

This reflects higher marketing investments to drive top line, with declines in all other line items driven by expense initiatives. The full year tax rate is expected to be approximately 25%. Our weighted average share count is projected to be in the low 190s before accounting for repurchase activity beyond offsetting internal grants.

這反映出為推動營業收入而進行的行銷投資增加，而所有其他項目的營業收入則因費用支出而下降。預計全年稅率約為25%。在考慮超出內部贈款的回購活動之前，我們的加權平均股數預計在 190 股出頭。

This year, we expect capital expenditures of approximately $300 million. This includes a onetime $40 million cost of relocating to a new Manhattan office, providing more favorable lease terms. We're also investing to enhance our digital platform to support our growing e-commerce business to further strengthen the customer experience. And this year, we're investing in automation in our DC to create greater cost efficiencies.

今年，我們預計資本支出約為 3 億美元。其中包括一次性 4000 萬美元搬遷至曼哈頓新辦公室的費用，以提供更優惠的租賃條款。我們也正在投資增強我們的數位平台，以支援我們不斷成長的電子商務業務，進一步增強客戶體驗。今年，我們正在投資 DC 的自動化，以提高成本效率。

I'll end by saying across AEO, the teams are highly focused on improving performance. We're managing the business with discipline, taking action with urgency as we navigate through the current environment. And with that, we'll open up for questions.

最後，我想說，在 AEO 中，團隊都高度專注於提升績效。我們在規範地管理業務，並在當前環境下採取緊急行動。現在，我們可以開始提問了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Jay Sole, UBS.

瑞銀的傑伊·索爾 (Jay Sole)

I have a two-part question. Jen, the first part is for you. You talked about how some stores in warmer areas have done better than stores that have been affected by the cold. If you could just maybe give us an idea of like what the difference in comp has been?

我有一個由兩個部分組成的問題。Jen，第一部分是給你的。您談到了一些位於較溫暖地區的商店的經營狀況比受寒冷影響的商店要好。您能否告訴我們，comp 的差異是什麼？

And then secondly, for Mike, if you think about beyond fiscal '25, can you just talk about your ability to control SG&A? Because the SG&A control has been really solid, just like the company had said over the past year.

其次，對 Mike 來說，如果您考慮 25 財年之後的情況，您能談談您控制銷售、一般和行政費用 (SG&A) 的能力嗎？因為銷售、一般及行政開支控制得非常穩固，就像公司在過去一年所說的。

But can you talk about your ability to control SG&A going forward? So in other words, releverage those costs and get back to the margin targets? Or get to the margin targets that you've had, assuming that sales sort of bounce back as the consumer environment normalizes again and returns to normal?

但你能談談你未來控制銷售、一般及行政費用 (SG&A) 的能力嗎？換句話說，重新利用這些成本並回到利潤目標？或者，假設隨著消費環境再次正常化並恢復正常，銷售額會反彈，那麼您是否能達到既定的利潤目標？

Thanks for the question. And certainly, yes, we do penetrate a little higher in the softer markets. Definitely in the normal weather climates, we did see some better comps, but certainly not enough to go off on for this quarter. So still a lot to come. We're only 1/3 of the way into this quarter, lots of volume to be had, and we're ready to compete.

謝謝你的提問。確實，在較疲軟的市場中，我們的滲透率確實更高一些。當然，在正常天氣氣候下，我們確實看到了一些更好的業績，但絕對不足以支撐本季的業績。因此，還有很多事情要做。我們僅完成了本季的 1/3，還有很大的業務量，我們已做好競爭的準備。

And Jay, on SG&A, good question. I think when you look at 2024 is a proof point of what we've been talking about. We've got this muscle built now around expense controls, cross-functional teams working through our transformation office with the FP&A team with the kind of cost center owners across the organization on a constant basis.

Jay，關於銷售、一般及行政費用，這個問題問得很好。我認為，2024 年就是我們所談論內容的證明點。現在，我們已經圍繞費用控制建立了這方面的力量，跨職能團隊透過我們的轉型辦公室與 FP&A 團隊以及整個組織的成本中心所有者持續合作。

We were able to leverage SG&A for the year -- last year on the comp result and revenue up low single digits. And actually, the entire operating rate improvement last year of 120 basis points was all from expense leverage. So just the proof points of everything we've been doing the last two years now.

我們能夠利用去年的銷售、一般及行政開支，使業績和收入成長個位數。實際上，去年整個營業率的提升120個基點全都來自於費用槓桿。這些只是我們過去兩年來所做的一切的證明點。

And then even on this guide for 2025, Jen and team are going to work vigorously at the top line improvement. But even messaging at this point, the dollars on the year are down similar to the revenue assumption, kind of down low single digit.

即使在 2025 年的指南中，Jen 和團隊也將積極致力於營收成長。但即使目前的消息是，今年的美元收入也與收入假設類似地下降了，大概是低個位數下降。

I'm not sure the last time we've been able to say that walking into a year like this. We were structured in a similar way going into the year where within our algorithm, SG&A was set to leverage. So the starting point for this work that we've kicked off immediately when we started seeing this trend has allowed us to at least capture that.

我不確定我們上一次在進入這樣的一年時能夠說出這句話是什麼時候。進入新年度，我們的結構也類似，在我們的演算法中，銷售、一般及行政費用被設定為槓桿。因此，當我們開始看到這種趨勢時，我們立即啟動了這項工作，這至少讓我們能夠捕捉到這一點。

But then the work continues. We've got more decisions coming at us here in the next few weeks that we can -- that we're going to make this -- really decide on a few other line items across the P&L. Big store expenses like rent, store labor, services, delivery, SLAs, decisions we can make across our distribution fulfillment capabilities there.

但工作仍需繼續。在接下來的幾週內，我們需要做出更多決定，我們可以——我們將做出這個——真正決定損益表中的其他一些項目。大型商店的開支包括租金、商店勞動力、服務、配送、 SLA 以及我們可以根據我們的分銷履行能力做出的決策。

All discretionary spend. So it's all in work at the moment, and I'm confident we're going to be able to knock that number down even further with kind of more updates to come from there.

所有可自由支配的開支。所以目前一切都在進行中，我相信透過更多的更新，我們將能夠進一步降低這個數字。

So we're structured to do this. So in the out years, yes, our target of 25% to 26% [for cent] of the rate is still intact. We need revenue growth to do that. There's no doubt about that. We're confident we'll get back to that revenue growth. But we're structured to continue to manage expenses for leverage.

因此，我們制定了這樣的結構來做這件事。所以在未來幾年，我們的 25% 至 26% 的利率目標仍然保持不變。我們需要收入成長來實現這一目標。毫無疑問。我們有信心恢復收入成長。但我們的架構將繼續管理槓桿費用。

Matthew Boss, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的馬修‧博斯 (Matthew Boss)。

It's Amanda Douglas on for Matt. So Jen, could you elaborate on early spring selling trends that you're seeing across the American Eagle brands relative to Aerie and how that's reflected in your 1Q revenue outlook?

阿曼達·道格拉斯 (Amanda Douglas) 取代馬特。那麼 Jen，您能否詳細說明您看到的 American Eagle 品牌相對於 Aerie 的早春銷售趨勢，以及這如何反映在您的第一季營收前景中？

Sure. Early on, as you mentioned, there's obviously headwinds coming out of February, you heard. Coming off of a very strong Q4, we were really pleased with our results. We entered very agile with our inventory, thinking we were down 1. So we're leaving ourselves open for chase. And the new learnings are -- we have to react to these learnings. There's certainly opportunities across all brands, right?

當然。正如您早些時候提到的，您聽說了，二月顯然會出現逆風。由於第四季業績表現強勁，我們對於自己的業績感到非常滿意。我們非常靈活地進入庫存，以為我們損失了 1。所以我們置自己於被追逐的邊緣。而新的學習是──我們必須對這些學習做出反應。所有品牌肯定都有機會，對嗎？

We could have had more denim in AE, specifically. Aerie, we could have had more fleece. That's good news and bad news at the same time. But because of our inventory position and because of the way we're posturing ourselves, on the back half, we can chase our business, and we're ready to do so. So there's learnings in February, it was softer than expected.

具體來說，我們可以在 AE 中加入更多牛仔布。艾瑞，我們本來可以有更多的羊毛。這既是好消息，也是壞消息。但由於我們的庫存狀況以及我們的姿態，在後半段，我們可以追逐我們的業務，而且我們已準備好這樣做。因此，二月的經驗表明，其表現比預期要疲軟。

And we are ready to gear up, and the teams are moving very swiftly and getting into the businesses that are working and obviously flowing the businesses that are not. So early on, the weather was tough, you heard that, and we actually are more penetrated in some of the tougher climates. So that's the truth.

我們已做好了準備，各個團隊正在迅速行動，進入正在運作的業務，顯然也會退出尚未營運的業務。你們可能聽說過，很早以前，天氣就很惡劣，實際上，我們在一些氣候更為惡劣的地區更加活躍。事實就是如此。

But early on, the teams have reacted. We've responded. Inventories well positioned, and we're taking all of our lessons and moving forward.

但很早以前，各支球隊就已經做出了反應。我們已回應。庫存定位良好，我們正在吸取所有教訓並繼續前進。

Great. And as a follow-up for Mike, on the gross margin outlook, could you help break apart the embedded assumptions for markdowns versus product costs in the first quarter? And just how you see each of those progressing over the balance of the year?

偉大的。作為對 Mike 的後續提問，關於毛利率前景，您能否幫助分解第一季降價與產品成本的嵌入式假設？您認為今年餘下時間各項工作的進度如何？

Yes. Within gross margin, we've got a currency headwind in the first half that comes through the margin line. A little bit of tariff impact. We said $5 million to $10 million. So small in the grand scheme of things, mitigated by the teams very well. Flexibility there is key. We've got that built depending on what actually happens with tariffs that we're all kind of waiting to confirm.

是的。在毛利率方面，上半年我們遇到了貨幣逆風，這對利潤率產生了影響。有點關稅影響。我們說500萬到1000萬美元。從總體上看，這種情況很小，但團隊很好地緩解了這種情況。靈活性是關鍵。我們已經根據關稅的實際情況制定了這項計劃，我們都在等待確認。

But the currency headwind is an impact to IMU in product margin in the first quarter. And then on the down five or down mid-single digit, call it, revenue guide, our ability to leverage expenses and gross margin, like rent, for example, diminished. So some expense headwinds in gross margin in the first quarter as well.

但貨幣逆風對第一季的IMU產品利潤率產生了影響。然後，在下降五位或下降中位數個位數（稱之為收入指南）的情況下，我們利用費用和毛利率（例如租金）的能力下降了。因此，第一季的毛利率也面臨一些費用阻力。

When you get through the first half of the year into the back half, IMU improvement is expected and projected at the moment, which is a good change from the first half of the year. We still believe markdowns can be well controlled at a sort of flat comp or flat revenue results.

當你度過上半年進入下半年時，IMU 預計會有所改善，這與上半年相比是一個很好的變化。我們仍然相信，在維持同店銷售額或收入持平的前提下，降價幅度可以得到很好的控制。

Expense mitigations are -- we've got some things flowing through the third and fourth quarter already, but there are some lines that we're managing through right now that we can see some additional benefits to. So we're expecting gross margin to be relatively in line to last year in the back half. So front half, headwinds, back half, relatively similar to last year.

費用緩解是——我們已經在第三季和第四季完成了一些工作，但是我們現在正在管理一些線路，我們可以看到一些額外的好處。因此，我們預計下半年的毛利率將與去年基本持平。因此，前半部、逆風、後半部與去年相對相似。

Janet Kloppenburg, JJK Research.

Janet Kloppenburg，JJK 研究公司。

Hi, everybody. Jen, I can -- sure you call out, and I might have missed it, so forgive me. Did you call out leggings as a position of strength at Aerie? I think you said activewear. And comment on swim would really help there, too.

大家好。Jen，我可以——當然你會叫出來，而我可能會錯過，所以請原諒我。您是否認為緊身褲是 Aerie 的強項？我認為你說的是運動服。對游泳的評論也確實有幫助。

And getting back to American Eagle, if you could elaborate a little bit more on the women's -- on the slowdown in women's? Other than weather, like what categories and what the learnings are there, that would help me a lot. And Mike, we should be using flat gross margin in the back half? And can you give us sort of a range on the front half, please?

回到 American Eagle，您能否進一步詳細說明女性業務成長放緩的情況？除了天氣之外，例如有哪些類別以及有哪些學習內容，這些都會對我有很大幫助。麥克，我們下半年應該使用持平毛利率嗎？您能給我們前半部的範圍嗎？

Sure. Leggings, we're very excited about the business. In fact, I'm here at a hotel in Miami and I met a customer checking in, and she literally said to me, do you work for Aerie, OFFLINE? And I thought -- I guess you heard me speaking, and I said, yes, she's like, they're the best leggings in town. And that's certainly true. We grew market share this year. We grew to the number 2 market share in our core demographic. I'm thrilled with that number.

當然。緊身褲，我們對這項業務感到非常興奮。事實上，我在邁阿密的一家酒店裡遇到了一位正在辦理入住手續的顧客，她直接問我，你是在 Aerie 線下工作嗎？我想——我想你聽到我說話了，我說，是的，她說，這是鎮上最好的緊身褲。這確實是事實。我們今年的市佔率有所成長。我們在核心人口群體中的市佔率已成長至第二位。我對這個數字感到非常興奮。

And you're seeing that continue here?

你看到這種情況還在繼續嗎？

Yes, we are actually. Activewear is a positive trend for us. We're very excited about that business. Women's, Janet, we -- look -- (multiple speakers) coming up of a very strong trend. We're comping the comp. The business is growing. We're introducing new fashion and obviously introducing -- getting back to some of our core competency businesses, i.e., fashion tops and that social casual dressing. We're doing great there.

是的，確實如此。運動服對我們來說是一個正面的趨勢。我們對這項業務感到非常興奮。女士們，珍妮特，我們 -- 看 -- (多位發言者) 出現了一個非常強勁的趨勢。我們正在對作品進行剪輯。業務正在成長。我們正在推出新的時尚，顯然也回歸到我們的一些核心競爭力業務，即時尚上衣和社交休閒服飾。我們在那裡做得很好。

We're addressing that girl head to toe. We're closing the gap on our tops to bottoms ratio, very excited about that. Women's continues to comp quarter-over-quarter. And actually, if you look at the two-year stack, actually women's has accelerated into Q4, including denim, which was a 5 comp.

我們正在從頭到腳地對待那個女孩。我們正在縮小頂部與底部比例的差距，對此我們感到非常興奮。女裝銷量持續保持季度環比成長。實際上，如果看一下兩年的走勢，就會發現女裝已經加速進入第四季度，其中包括牛仔布，這是一個 5 件商品。

Going to swim, my favorite subject, my favorite subject. Planning it accordingly, some softness in some other categories that we were expecting to comp the swim business, but we did plan swim down. It's actually beating that plan as we speak. And we planned some other categories up. And we needed some receipts here, to be honest, to offset some of the early headwinds that we're facing just getting out of the gate in Aerie.

去游泳，我最喜歡的科目，我最喜歡的科目。相應地進行規劃，我們預計游泳業務的其他一些類別會有一些疲軟，但我們確實計劃降低游泳業務的銷售額。正如我們所說，它實際上正在打破這一計劃。我們也規劃了一些其他類別。老實說，我們需要一些收入來抵消我們在 Aerie 剛開始時面臨的一些阻力。

Okay. But Aerie, then, where are the slowdowns from where you had been, Jen?

好的。但是 Aerie，那麼，Jen，與你之前去過的地方相比，速度變慢了多少呢？

It's actually not -- it's -- as I mentioned in my remarks, intimates in general is a slowdown, but we actually gained market share in bras and in undies. And we oversold fleece early in Q4, and we needed receipts here to mitigate some of the planned -- some of the swim business that we've planned down. That's what we're chasing right now. Good news is we have a new set coming our way, starting on direct. Newness is hitting on Thursday and new goods coming next week for Aerie.

事實上並非如此——正如我在評論中提到的那樣，貼身衣物的銷售總體上有所放緩，但我們實際上在胸罩和內衣方面獲得了市場份額。我們在第四季初羊毛衫銷售過剩，我們需要這裡的收入來緩解一些計劃——一些我們計劃減少的游泳業務。這正是我們現在所追求的。好消息是，我們即將推出一套新的產品，直接開始銷售。週四將有新品上市，下週 Aerie 將有新品上市。

So except for men's, it sounds like everything is pretty correctable in the near term?

那麼，除了男性之外，聽起來所有的問題在短期內都可以被修正？

Definitely. I mean, definitely. In lever inventory position, I love that [recoup in]. And men's definitely have some green shoots, some new launches, some new product categories, some new fashion. We're seeing great returns in the graphics business, we're chasing that business. And 24/7 is tracking well. We're seeing a great response to the new active looks. And pants has been strong for us. And I do believe as we cycle into the warm requirements, our shorts business is really set up for success.

確實。我的意思絕對是這樣的。在槓桿庫存位置，我喜歡這一點[收回]。男裝方面肯定也出現了一些復甦跡象，推出了一些新品，推出了一些新的產品類別，推出了一些新時尚。我們在圖形業務中看到了巨大的回報，我們正在追逐這項業務。並且 24/7 跟踪效果良好。我們看到了人們對新活躍形象的正面回應。褲子對我們來說一直都很堅固。而且我確實相信，隨著我們進入熱銷需求週期，我們的短褲業務確實會成功。

Great. Thank you, Jen, and good luck to you. Mike?

偉大的。謝謝你， Jen，祝你好運。麥克風？

Yes. Janet, on gross margin. The first quarter with the guidance of the $20 million to $25 million upping on mid-single revenue decline. You're going to get to gross margin around 240 basis points down. The majority of that is delevered. So rent and other ramping and fixed costs in the gross margin that are still in work.

是的。珍妮特，關於毛利率。第一季度，預計營收將成長 2,000 萬美元至 2,500 萬美元，而中期營收將下降。您的毛利率將會下降約 240 個基點。其中大部分已去槓桿。因此，毛利率中的租金和其他增加的成本和固定成本仍然在發揮作用。

But the deleverage there will be the biggest driver of that. We do have little bit of IMU headwind, like I said, from currency, Q1 is still the biggest currency lap, especially against the peso last year. Jen mentioned some chase and some things being adjusted through the assortment, receipts for chasing, so a little bit of freight as well. But the majority is going to be expense deleverage with a little bit of pressure on the merch margin from those couple of items as well.

但去槓桿將是最大的推動力。正如我所說，我們確實面臨一些 IMU 逆風，從貨幣來看，第一季仍然是最大的貨幣圈，尤其是去年兌比索的匯率。Jen 提到了一些追逐和一些透過分類進行調整的事情、追逐的收據，所以也有一些運費。但最主要的是費用去槓桿，這對幾項商品的利潤率也會造成一點壓力。

Second quarter, more -- definitely tighter, call about 150 basis points is what we're thinking based on projecting now. Expense deleverage is not as significant on some revenue improvement. And again, we start to lap the currency impact to the back half of the second quarter last year. So that gets negated through IMU. So those two components, better than the first quarter, resulting in about maybe 100 basis points better difference to last year in the second quarter versus the first quarter.

第二季度，肯定會更加緊縮，根據目前的預測，我們認為大約會收緊 150 個基點。費用去槓桿對部分收入改善的影響則沒那麼顯著。我們再次開始將貨幣影響追溯到去年第二季後半段。因此，這會透過 IMU 被否定。因此，這兩個組成部分的表現都比第一季好，導致第二季度與去年第一季相比，差距大約縮小了 100 個基點。

Adrienne Yih, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的 Adrienne Yih。

So my question is going to go back to the tariff piece of it. Your assumptions for the tariff, you have the 20% exposure to China. I think that was for FY24, but I know you're working that down. Where are you currently? Where do you expect that to be at the end of the year?

所以我的問題又回到關稅問題。根據您對關稅的假設，您對中國的依賴為 20%。我認為那是針對 FY24 的，但我知道你正在努力實現這一點。您目前在哪裡？您預計今年底該數字將會達到什麼水準？

And then just kind of proactively thinking, what is your exposure to Vietnam? Does your guidance actually just assume you're taking the margin hit with no pass-through and no kind of manufacturing negotiations, et cetera?

然後積極思考，您對越南有什麼了解？您的指導是否實際上只是假設您在承受利潤損失，沒有任何轉嫁和任何形式的製造談判等等？

And then again, where are we in the denim cycle of things? And obviously, you comped up 5%. Is there another iteration or another kind of progression of kind of that wider leg denim? And then if you can talk about the promotionality of both Aerie and AE brand.

那麼，我們處於牛仔布循環的哪個階段呢？顯然，您補償了 5%。這種寬腿牛仔褲還有其他的迭代版本或其他類型的進步嗎？然後，您能否談談 Aerie 和 AE 品牌的推廣性？

Yes. When it comes to tariff, nobody knows what tariffs are going to put on, where, when or what. We don't know what's going to be the Vietnam, we don't know China. We don't know India. We don't know Bangladesh. So there's a shift in everywhere we're shifting to. And you have to remember that 8 years ago, we went through this before, and everything settled down. So we just have to be calm and due course. We're not going to be jumping all over the place until we know exactly what the story is.

是的。說到關稅，沒有人知道會向什麼地方、何時、什麼商品徵收關稅。我們不知道越南會變成什麼樣子，我們也不了解中國。我們不了解印度。我們不了解孟加拉。所以，我們所轉移的每一個方向都在發生轉移。你必須記住，8 年前我們也經歷過這樣的事情，後來一切都平息了。因此我們必須保持冷靜並採取適當行動。在我們確切了解故事內容之前，我們不會到處亂跑。

Nobody knows what the story is yet. We went through this 8 years ago, settled down. And if you remember, 8 years ago, the first half of business was a tough business, and it settled down, and then everything got very good for the next few years until the pandemic. So I wouldn't be rushing -- you go rush, where am I rushing to? I don't know where I'm rushing to.

目前還沒有人知道這個故事到底是什麼。我們八年前就經歷過這一切，並且安定下來了。如果你還記得的話，8 年前，我們的上半年生意很艱難，後來就穩定下來了，接下來的幾年裡一切都變得很好，直到疫情爆發。所以我不會著急──你去著急，我要趕去哪裡？我不知道自己要趕往何處。

Yes. 100%, Jay. I think flexibility is key. That's the key point there. The teams have that built. We've got redundancy built to move around if we need to. But at the moment, to Jay's point, where do you move, until we know. But the assumptions are right now and the reality around China penetration is we're below 20 now. We're in the high teens. Some of the mitigation is we plan to be in the single digits by the time we get to the back half of the year. So that's why the -- a little bit of tariff headwind in the front half, back half pretty low under these assumptions.

是的。100%，傑伊。我認為靈活性是關鍵。這就是關鍵點。這些團隊已經建成了。我們已經建立了冗餘機制，以便在必要時隨時調動。但目前，正如傑伊所說，你會搬到哪裡，直到我們知道為止。但現在的假設和中國滲透率的實際情況是，我們現在低於 20。我們都十幾歲了。我們計劃採取一些緩解措施，到今年下半年將這一數字降至個位數。所以這就是為什麼──在這些假設下，前半年的關稅阻力很小，後半年的關稅阻力就相當低。

Vietnam is similar to China at the moment, kind of high teens to 20%. The teams have already worked the same process around mitigation efforts with our manufacturing partners, vendors in Vietnam. So right now, the assumption is no pass through the consumer. We've actually -- between the mitigation efforts in China, reducing the penetration, then it's the partnerships we have with our vendors and sharing in the cost of what could happen at the moment.

越南目前與中國類似，比例約 10% 至 20%。我們的團隊已經與越南的製造合作夥伴和供應商一起進行了相同的緩解措施。因此現在的假設是沒有通過消費者。實際上，我們已經在中國採取了緩解措施，減少了滲透，然後我們與供應商建立了合作夥伴關係，並分擔了可能發生的成本。

We feel good about that, and the teams have worked tirelessly for good 6-, 9 months now getting ready for this to create that redundancy, creates flexibility across the network. We feel like we can make a lot of different moves, pending, to Jay's point, what actually does occur.

我們對此感到很高興，團隊已經孜孜不倦地工作了 6 到 9 個月，為此做好了準備，以創建冗餘並在整個網路內創建靈活性。我們覺得我們可以採取很多不同的舉措，但要取決於傑伊所說的實際發生的情況。

And then denim, particularly in women's, we had a strong year, mid-single-digit comps. Q4 to run that 5% comp was exceptional. However, we did go into Q1 very lean, and we needed to chase goods. What I love about what's happening in the business right now is the diversity of fits. It's not just about baggy, actually. We're seeing skinny emerge.

然後是牛仔布，特別是女裝，我們今年的銷量表現強勁，同比增長了個位數中段。Q4 實現 5% 的年成長非常出色。然而，我們在第一季確實表現非常精簡，我們需要追逐商品。我對目前商業領域發生的各種變化非常感興趣。事實上，這不僅與寬鬆有關。我們看到了瘦身的出現。

And what makes this magic on this team and our positioning in the market is how we chase denim and how we go to market and also our fit. I mean our fits are the best in the industry. And extremely proud of what the team is able to deliver.

這支團隊的魔力和我們在市場中的定位在於我們如何追逐牛仔布、如何進入市場以及我們如何適應市場。我的意思是我們的配合度是業界最好的。我對團隊所取得的成績感到非常自豪。

However, we still have a lot of open to buy. We just did our denim testing, and the results came in. And again, it's a little bit more diversified than I think what other people are saying. We're seeing strength across varieties fits in women's, in particular, and we are seeing leaner fits coming back into men's.

不過，我們仍有許多庫存可供購買。我們剛做完牛仔布測試，結果已經出來了。而且，我認為它比其他人所說的更加多樣化。我們看到，尤其是在女裝方面，各種款式的合身度都在增強，同時，我們也看到男裝方面正在重新推行更精簡的合身度。

The other thing that's happening in men's is bottoms are definitely trending for us, so other bottoms, pants and shorts. And I mentioned earlier, shorts are just beginning for that business. So a lot of more business to be had in this quarter. And hopefully, we'll get that 70-degree weather.

男裝領域發生的另一件事是下裝絕對成為我們的流行趨勢，因此還有其他下裝、褲子和短褲。我之前提到過，短褲對於這個行業來說才剛起步。因此本季將會有更多的業務。希望我們能迎來 70 度的天氣。

As I think about promotions for AE and Aerie, look, this is where we have to win, right? We have to manage our inventory. Good news is we're lean coming in with inventory. So the teams don't have a lot of pressure there, but we have to compete at the same time.

當我考慮 AE 和 Aerie 的促銷活動時，看，這就是我們必須取勝的地方，對嗎？我們必須管理我們的庫存。好消息是我們的庫存正在減少。因此球隊沒有太大的壓力，但同時我們必須競爭。

I do think that we could definitely balance out our assortments a little bit more with some opening price points so that we can compete in that value equation and -- but mixing that business, and we'll continue to work on that. That's what the team is working on as we speak. But again, because we're lean on inventory, we have open receipts, we can actually be nimble and manage this.

我確實認為，我們可以透過一些開價點來平衡我們的產品組合，以便我們能夠在價值方程中競爭 - 但混合該業務，我們會繼續努力。這就是我們團隊目前正在做的事情。但是，因為我們依賴庫存，我們有未結清的收據，所以我們實際上可以靈活地管理這一點。

Paul Lejuez, Citi.

花旗銀行的 Paul Lejuez。

Just a couple of quick ones. What's built in for incentive comp in F '25? Can you just remind us what F '24 was versus '23, the impact of the margin on incentive comp? And then OFFLINE, can you talk about the size of that business in dollars and what you expect for growth this year? And then just curious if you canceled any inventory purchases for the back half?

僅舉幾個例子。F'25 內建了哪些激勵補償？您能否提醒我們 24 年與 23 年相比，利潤率對激勵補償有何影響？然後是線下，您能談談該業務的美元規模以及您對今年的成長預期嗎？那麼我只是好奇您是否取消了後半年的任何庫存購買？

Yes, incentive, we talked in the past about many (technical difficulty). And then, as we talked about the past, our incentive metric is aligned with everything we talked about for the three-year plan. So EBIT. On this guide, we'd assume very low to minimal incentive comp in 2025 off a $375 million number. We talked about in the past, relative average around $50 million. But that's -- again, the $375 million, we would assume very little incentive compensation in this guide.

是的，激勵，我們過去談過很多（技術難度）。然後，正如我們談論過去一樣，我們的激勵指標與我們談論的三年計劃的所有內容一致。所以是息稅前利潤。根據這份指南，我們假設 2025 年的激勵補償金額將非常低甚至為最低，而總額為 3.75 億美元。我們過去談過，相對平均值在 5000 萬美元左右。但是，再說一次，3.75 億美元，我們假設本指南中的激勵性薪酬很少。

The size of OFFLINE, we've -- look, we've done a lot of work, strategic work around the growth of the brands in the last several months. And we believe that penetration still low, customer awareness is very low. We've talked about Aerie in total of being only around 55%, OFFLINE from an awareness perspective is next to nothing.

就線下業務的規模而言，我們——你看，過去幾個月我們圍繞品牌成長做了很多工作、策略工作。我們認為滲透率仍然很低，客戶認知度非常低。我們已經討論過 Aerie 整體上只佔 55% 左右，從認知角度來看，離線幾乎為零。

Obviously, we've got a nice business across the categories within the sub-brands and Aerie, $1.7 billion. We always talk about OFFLINE as a sub-brand being about 1/3 of the business, around $600 million. So very small still. It's the fastest-growing thing in the company as we speak, set of categories, a lot of runway ahead of us.

顯然，我們的子品牌和 Aerie 各個類別的業務都表現良好，價值 17 億美元。我們總是說 OFFLINE 這個子品牌約佔業務的 1/3，價值約 6 億美元。仍然非常小。正如我們所說，這是公司中成長最快的產品，有一系列的產品類別，我們面前還有很大的發展空間。

The TAM, total addressable market is around, I think, $30 billion, $40 billion. So small in the context of the company. A lot of opportunity for us in terms of product expansion, geographic expansion, building awareness.

我認為，TAM，即總目標市場規模約為 300 億美元至 400 億美元。相對於公司而言，規模太小了。在產品擴展、地理擴展和建立知名度方面，我們有很多機會。

And as we've talked about in the opening remarks, we're not going to stop or slow down the investments there. The best use of our cash right now is the return we think we can get from the continued investment across the brands, nothing bigger than OFFLINE at the moment.

正如我們在開場白中提到的，我們不會停止或減緩在那裡的投資。我們認為，現在我們現金的最佳用途就是從對各個品牌的持續投資中獲得回報，目前沒有什麼比線下投資更重要的了。

And think about the positioning, right? We're number 2 leggings business and actually number 3 or 4 in the bra and the sports bra segment. And we've only just begun. We haven't even marketed to this business. So lots to come here. The product is very well received and the innovation is like no other. So really proud of this business, and it continues to outpace the other businesses in our company.

想想定位，對嗎？我們在緊身褲業務方面排名第二，在胸罩和運動胸罩領域實際上排名第三或第四。而我們才剛開始。我們甚至還沒有針對該行業進行行銷。有很多人來這裡。該產品很受歡迎，其創新性無與倫比。我對這項業務感到非常自豪，而且它的成長速度繼續超過我們公司的其他業務。

Got it. And then any place you've adjusted inventory purchases for the back half?

知道了。那麼，你們對下半年的庫存採購有沒有什麼調整呢？

Paul, can you repeat that? You're coming through a little muffled.

保羅，你能重複一遍嗎？你的聲音有點低沉。

Inventory purchases for the back half, any adjustments that you've made?

對於下半年的庫存採購，您做了什麼調整？

Yes. We have a lot of open to buy for Q3 still. Q4 is in work and development as we speak. So we have a lot of flexibility on the back half. We're looking at trends and projections that we've laid out here for this guide, and Jen and team working through adjustments to forward plans, and we have a lot of flexibility to do that still.

是的。我們第三季仍有許多待採購的產品。正如我們所說，Q4 正在進行中。因此我們在後半部具有很大的靈活性。我們正在研究本指南中列出的趨勢和預測，Jen 和團隊正在努力調整前瞻性計劃，並且我們仍然有很大的靈活性來做到這一點。

Dana Telsey, Telsey Advisory Group.

達娜‧特爾西 (Dana Telsey)，特爾西顧問集團 (Telsey Advisory Group)。

Can you talk a little bit about the performance of digital and stores in the fourth quarter and how it's looking in first quarter to date and how you're planning to go forward? It is following up on remodels. I know that there was expected to be an acceleration in store remodels in '25. Is that still on track? Or what are you looking at for openings and remodels and how you're thinking about marketing spend this year?

您能否談談第四季度數位和商店的表現、第一季迄今的表現以及您未來的計劃？它正在進行改造。我知道預計25年商店改造將會加速。這仍然在進行中嗎？或者您對開業和裝修有何期待，以及您如何考慮今年的行銷支出？

Yes, we had growth for the fourth quarter, Dana, we had comp improvement across brands and channels, so both in digital and stores, digital ahead of stores within the -- the plus three comp results. First quarter right now, digital is stronger than stores. Our traffic is still relative to mall traffic outpacing, even though traffic is down significantly in the mall. Traffic to digital is definitely healthier than in stores. And right now, on this mid-single-digit guide, digital's on the puff out positive side of that, with stores being down more than mid-single.

是的，Dana，我們在第四季度實現了成長，跨品牌和通路的銷售額都有所提升，無論是數位業務還是實體店銷售，數位業務都領先於實體店銷售——銷售額增長了 3 個百分點。目前第一季度，數位化表現強於實體店表現。儘管購物中心的客流量大幅下降，但我們的客流量相對於購物中心的客流量仍然保持領先。數位管道的客流量肯定比商店的客流量更大。而現在，在這個中位數個位數的指導下，數位業務處於積極的一面，而商店的降幅超過了中等個位數。

On remodels for the year, we talked about -- we did $56 million in 2024, seen nice results from those stores. We know we want to continue on this program to knock down the average age of the American Eagle fleet from 12 years to 7 years. We are planning to -- still on our capital plans to do more this year, closer probably $90 million to $100 million, in that range, within the $300 million capital spend guide.

關於今年的改造，我們談到了——我們在 2024 年的改造金額為 5600 萬美元，這些商店的業績不錯。我們知道我們希望繼續執行該計劃，將 American Eagle 飛機的平均機齡從 12 年縮短至 7 年。我們計畫 — — 今年我們的資本計畫仍將進一步增加，大概在 9,000 萬至 1 億美元之間，在這個範圍內，在 3 億美元的資本支出指南之內。

And then for openings for Aerie and OFFLINE, around $35 million, which includes the mix of side -- stand-alones and side by sides. So continuing to make those investments for future growth in this year.

然後用於《Aerie》和《OFFLINE》的開場，大約 3500 萬美元，其中包括獨立上映和並排上映的混合票房。因此，今年我們將繼續進行這些投資，以實現未來的成長。

Marketing spend. So within the earlier question around expense management really coming into the year, we were really successful in keeping expenses down across SG&A other than advertising, really to fund additional marketing expense. We've talked about getting a lot better in terms of investments there, measuring those investments, continuing to invest in marketing for growth.

行銷支出。因此，在先前關於今年費用管理的問題中，我們確實成功地將廣告以外的銷售、一般和行政費用控制在較低水平，以便為額外的行銷費用提供資金。我們已經討論過如何在投資方面取得更大進步、衡量這些投資、繼續在行銷方面進行投資以實現成長。

We've got very specific acquisition and retention targets for our customer base. We don't want to slow that down either. So advertising in this guide is still similar to what we've planned the rest of our expense dollars in SG&A down to fund that investment. We have the opportunity to flex that still through evaluating some elements of that spend. But it is still -- it's the one line that's in an SG&A guide that is basically flat rate to last year. Advertising would deleverage within that on the year.

我們對客戶群有非常具體的獲取和保留目標。我們也不想減慢這一進程。因此，本指南中的廣告仍然與我們計劃的銷售、一般和行政費用中剩餘的支出用於資助該投資的金額類似。我們仍有機會透過評估某些支出因素來靈活運用這一點。但它仍然是—銷售、一般及行政開支指南中的一行，與去年基本持平。廣告業將在年內去槓桿。

Got it. And then just one follow-up on the warmer markets doing better. How much better is the warmer markets do? And then, what are you seeing in terms of category performance that may be different in the warmer markets that is making you excited?

知道了。然後我們再來看看較溫暖的市場表現是否較好。市場回暖會帶來多大好處？那麼，就類別表現而言，您認為在較溫暖的市場中可能存在哪些不同，讓您感到興奮呢？

Yes. We're seeing just obviously, the seasonal businesses check better in the warmer market. We slightly penetrate higher, as I mentioned, in the cooler climates, Midwest and Northeast, slightly about 10 basis points. It's still too early. We have a lot of checks and balances on this quarter with the shift of spring break and Easter being out so late. It's very early to read, but the product that's checking, that's what we're responding to, right?

是的。我們明顯看到，在較溫暖的市場中，季節性業務表現較好。正如我所提到的那樣，在氣候較冷的中西部和東北地區，我們的滲透率略高一些，大約為 10 個基點。現在還太早。由於春假和復活節的推遲，我們在本季需要進行很多製衡。現在讀起來還為時過早，但正在檢查的產品就是我們正在回應的，對嗎？

And of course, digital, you see a little bit of a different demand on the digital channel, less seasonal. So we're in the market. When I think about how we're reacting to this business, the teams, like I said, you definitely see some warmer trends happening in the warmer climate shorts and tees. But it's too early to tell.

當然，就數字而言，你會看到數位管道的需求有些不同，而且季節性不那麼明顯。所以，我們進入了市場。當我思考我們如何應對這項業務時，就像我說的，團隊肯定會看到在更溫暖的氣候短褲和 T 卹中出現一些更溫暖的趨勢。但現在還言之過早。

And what we're doing is posturing our inventory, as I mentioned that earlier, so that we can be nimble. And the teams are chasing what is working early out. So a little early to tell here, but the team is reacting and responding.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在做的是調整我們的庫存，以便我們可以靈活應對。各個團隊都在努力尋找早期有效的方法。現在說這個還為時過早，但團隊正在做出反應和回應。

Marni Shapiro, The Retail Tracker.

瑪尼夏皮羅 (Marni Shapiro)，零售追蹤者。

And Jen, the dresses in the fashion at Eagle really looks absolutely fantastic. Just a couple of quick housekeeping questions. And Jay, I have a question for you. But did you guys talk about the penetration of your loyalty program to your business? And you talked about store openings and closings and remodels. Did you provide like a square footage number for the full year? Are those remodels the same sizes, bigger, smaller? So what's the full year square footage?

還有 Jen，Eagle 時裝店的服裝看起來真的非常棒。這只是幾個簡單的基本問題。傑伊，我有一個問題想問你。但你們有談過忠誠度計畫對你們業務的滲透嗎？您還談到了商店的開業、關閉和改造。您是否提供了全年的平方英尺數字？這些改造的尺寸是否相同，更大還是更小？那麼全年建築面積是多少呢？

And then I have a big picture question for you, Jay. We -- I'm curious, you've been through a lot of cycles, obviously, before. I'm curious what you think about the consumer out there. Do you think that they're slowing down? Is it really the weather? Do you think that they also bought a lot over holiday and they're taking a breather?

然後我要問你一個大問題，傑伊。我們 — — 我很好奇，顯然，你之前經歷過很多周期。我很好奇您對消費者有何看法。您認為他們正在放慢速度嗎？真的是天氣原因嗎？您是否認為他們在假期也購買了很多東西並且正在喘口氣？

Do you think the news does actually have an impact on them? I've read some articles, I'm sure you've seen the same ones that the consumer today actually knows or trying to figure out what the tariff is, where two months ago, they didn't even ask the question. So I'm curious what your big picture thoughts are on the consumer?

您認為新聞確實對他們產生了影響嗎？我讀過一些文章，我相信你也看過同樣的文章，今天的消費者實際上知道或試圖弄清楚關稅是多少，而兩個月前，他們甚至都沒有問過這個問題。所以我很好奇您對消費者的整體看法是什麼？

Okay. My big picture thoughts are very simple. They have the fear of the unknown. Not just tariffs, not just inflation. You see the government cutting people off. They don't know how that's going to affect them. They see programs being cut. They don't know how that's going to affect them. They just don't know how it's going to affect them. And when people don't know what they don't know, they get very conservative.

好的。我的宏觀想法非常簡單。他們對未知的事物感到恐懼。不只是關稅，不只是通貨膨脹。你會看到政府正在切斷人們的聯繫。他們不知道這會對他們產生什麼影響。他們看到項目被削減。他們不知道這會對他們產生什麼影響。他們只是不知道這會對他們產生什麼影響。當人們不知道自己不知道什麼時，他們就會變得非常保守。

I think the vast majority of merchants is not going to be affected one way or the other. But right now, until there's so much news on the TV, it makes everyone a little nervous. And that's what I think we're going through.

我認為絕大多數商家不會受到任何影響。但現在，電視上播放的新聞太多了，這讓每個人都有些緊張。我認為這就是我們正在經歷的事情。

I also remember 8 years ago, when we went through this before, similar issues, things were up and down, the first six months were tough and then things got back to normal. And then the country was -- everything was going very well until the pandemic. So I don't know what to get excited about right now or not get excited about. I just think you have to get things settled in first before we figure out what to do exactly.

我還記得 8 年前我們也經歷過類似的問題，情況起起伏伏，頭六個月很艱難，然後一切就恢復正常了。那時，整個國家都運作得很好，直到疫情爆發。所以我不知道現在該為何感到興奮，或不該為何興奮。我只是認為你必須先把事情安頓下來，然後我們再決定具體該怎麼做。

On your loyalty penetration question, Marni, 75%. That's grown over recent years. We know that we get customers into that loyalty program. We get them shopping across brands, American Eagle, Aerie and OFFLINE, they're the most profitable customers. They are -- they have the highest lifetime value. So we have very specific strategies on growing that loyalty penetration in cross-brand shoppers.

關於你提到的忠誠度滲透率問題，Marni，75%。近年來，這一數字不斷增長。我們知道我們會讓顧客加入這個忠誠度計劃。我們讓他們跨品牌購物，American Eagle、Aerie 和線下購物，他們是最賺錢的客戶。它們是－它們具有最高的生命週期價值。因此，我們制定了非常具體的策略來提高跨品牌購物者的忠誠度滲透率。

That's why our customer follows never been bigger over 24 million at the moment. And again, very specific retention or acquisition and the retention strategies against that. Square footage with the Aerie, OFFLINE openings of around $35 million, AE still being net closure. Maybe $15 million to $20 million in our plans, but that's under evaluation at the moment as well. You have square footage netting out at around a plus 1 to 2.

這就是為什麼我們的客戶追蹤者數量目前已超過 2,400 萬。再次強調，非常具體的保留或取得以及針對此的保留策略。Aerie 的面積、線下開業面積約為 3500 萬美元，AE 仍處於淨關閉狀態。我們的計劃中可能為 1500 萬到 2000 萬美元，但目前也在評估中。您的淨面積約為加上 1 到 2 平方英尺。

Rick Patel, Raymond James.

瑞克·帕特爾、雷蒙·詹姆斯。

Can you talk about the opportunity around basket size? You're making progress on tops, and it sounds like you're leaning more into entry price point products as well. So just curious if you see basket size as being a bigger contributor to the business this year?

能談談購物籃大小的機會嗎？您在頂部方面取得了進展，聽起來您也更傾向於入門價位產品。所以我很好奇，您是否認為購物籃大小對今年的業務貢獻更大？

Yes. Actually, we've been holding our own in-traffic against some of the data we've been seeing. And actually, the basket size is holding its own right now. And it's a focus of ours because in this environment, we have to make sure that when she comes in or he comes in, that we're fulfilling their needs. So big focus on basket size.

是的。實際上，我們一直在根據所見的一些數據來控制自己的流量。實際上，目前籃子規模保持不變。這是我們的重點，因為在這種環境下，我們必須確保當她進來或他進來時，我們能夠滿足他們的需求。因此非常關注籃子的大小。

And like I said, we're a little uptick there on those numbers with traffic being some weeks, slightly down to slightly negative and some weeks, beating them all. It's very -- right now it's a little erratic up coming out of the gate in February.

正如我所說的，我們的這些數字略有上升，有些星期，流量略有下降，甚至略有負值，而有些星期，流量則超過了所有數字。目前情況非常不穩定，即將進入二月。

So I think what the teams have been doing is -- what our teams have been doing is making sure that our customers are satisfied when they come in. And actually, our basket size is actually slightly up right now. So it's a focus of ours as we build out this year.

所以我認為團隊一直在做的事情是——我們的團隊一直在做的事情是確保我們的客戶進來時感到滿意。實際上，我們的購物籃規模現在實際上略有增加。因此這是我們今年發展的重點。

And obviously, managing the promotions. And we're finding new ways to dress her and to dress him, new occasions, dressing occasions. And obviously, with the growth in OFFLINE and some of the -- we're very excited about that business that we think that's an add-on business for all the brands.

顯然，還要管理促銷。我們正在尋找新的方式來為她和他穿衣，新的場合和穿衣場合。顯然，隨著線下業務的成長以及一些業務的開展，我們對這項業務感到非常興奮，我們認為這是所有品牌的附加業務。

As you know, we share a website, and we're definitely talking to her across brands. Aerie, OFFLINE and obviously, AE women's. So lots of opportunity there. Mike just talked about the loyalty program, and there's definitely opportunity to invite all of our customers at 24 million into all of our brands.

如你所知，我們共享一個網站​​，而且我們肯定會跨品牌與她交流。Aerie，OFFLINE，顯然是 AE 女子的。因此那裡有很多機會。麥克剛剛談到了忠誠度計劃，我們絕對有機會邀請 2400 萬客戶加入我們的所有品牌。

Can you also help us with the outlook for marketing? It sounds like you're going to continue investing here. I think you touched on the new campaign in the back half. So curious if there's anything else to call out in terms of timing that could be a swing factor for margins? And if you don't see a good ROI on this marketing, do you see it as an opportunity to pull back and protect your margins?

您能幫助我們展望市場前景嗎？聽起來你會繼續在這裡投資。我覺得您在後半部提到了新的活動。所以很好奇，從時間角度來看，是否有其他因素可能會影響利潤率？如果您認為這次行銷的投資報酬率不高，您是否認為這是一個撤退和保護利潤的機會？

Yes. Right now, we're playing up in the first half. So first quarter, second quarter plans in place. Some of that is strategic based on a lot of learnings around some new analytics tools of sort of effectiveness of the timing of spend to get benefits into back-to-school and holiday.

是的。現在，我們正在進行上半場比賽。因此第一季和第二季的計劃已經制定。其中一些是策略性的，基於對一些新分析工具的大量學習，這些工具可以有效地確定支出時機，以便在返校和假期期間獲得收益。

Dollars in the back half were relatively flat. We increased investments last year in the back half. So it's a flex line item for us as we get into the back half of the year still, still working through nailing down specific plans there with Jen and the creative teams. So up in the first half, funded with SG&A dollars being flat, all other expense lines and funding advertising in the first half flat in the back half of the moment with some plans to get nailed down still.

下半年美元表現相對穩定。我們去年下半年增加了投資。因此，對我們來說，這是一個靈活的項目，因為我們仍處於下半年，我們仍在與 Jen 和創意團隊一起制定具體計劃。因此，上半年，銷售、一般及行政開支的資金持平，上半年所有其他費用項目和廣告資金持平，但下半年仍有一些計劃需要確定。

Simeon Siegel, BMO Capital Markets.

蒙特利爾銀行資本市場 (BMO Capital Markets) 的西緬·西格爾 (Simeon Siegel)。

Afternoon, everyone. First off, sorry if I missed it, did you say how the different brands are looking in your guided revenue declines for the year? And then, Jen, when thinking about the market share versus the market growth dynamics within intimates you're referring to, any thoughts to what or when revitalizes the intimates' broader market growth?

大家下午好。首先，如果我沒注意，請見諒，您是否說過，在您預計的今年收入下滑情況中，不同品牌的表現如何？然後，Jen，當考慮您所指的貼身衣物市場份額與市場增長動力時，您認為什麼或何時能夠重振貼身衣物更廣泛的市場增長？

And then lastly, a bit peripheral, but it looks like you showed an uptick in the international licensed store count. At this point, how large our international license revenues and the profit? And I guess, what's the right way to think about them going forward?

最後，雖然有點邊緣化，但看起來國際授權商店數量有所上升。目前我們的國際版權收入和利潤有多少？我想，怎樣才能正確思考他們的未來發展呢？

Yes. I think for -- it's in the guide to mean the brands are similar to what we saw in '24, the current trends and trajectory with AE a little bit on the negative side of the average, Aerie on the positive side. So for down mid-single, you could assume Aerie was better than that, AE, down a little more than that.

是的。我認為——指南中的意思是這些品牌與我們在 24 年看到的相似，當前的趨勢和軌跡中 AE 略微偏向平均值的負面，而 Aerie 則偏向正面。因此，對於中單而言，你可以假設 Aerie 比這更好，AE 比這稍微差一點。

Similar, I mean if you think about 2024, we had a 4 comp, Aerie with a plus 5, AE was plus 3. So I think we're looking at similar things at the moment, with more to come once we see how trends continue, a lot to be -- a lot to absorb in current performance and see how things trend from here.

類似地，我的意思是如果你考慮 2024 年，我們有 4 個 comp，Aerie 有加 5，AE 有加 3。因此，我認為我們目前正在關注類似的事情，一旦我們看到趨勢如何持續，就會有更多的事情發生，很多事情需要我們吸收當前的表現，並觀察事情從現在開始的趨勢。

Yes. Regarding market share, obviously, in this environment right now, it is a market share play. And I'm pleased to say that we certainly stack against our core competency businesses. Denim, we're holding our rank. As I think about OFFLINE, we've grown in the legging market share.

是的。至於市場份額，顯然，在目前的環境下，這是一個市場份額的遊戲。我很高興地說，我們確實與我們的核心競爭力業務相符。牛仔布，我們保持我們的排名。當我想到線下時，我們的緊身褲市場份額已經增長。

And then in a declining market in Aerie, intimates has been declining, we've certainly held our own, and we've grown in bras and in undies. Slightly, not huge. But this will be a year of us competing and getting the market share that we deserve.

然後，在 Aerie 市場衰退的情況下，貼身衣物的銷量一直在下降，而我們卻穩住了自己的局面，而且我們的胸罩和內衣銷量也有所增長。稍微，不是很大。但今年我們將競爭並獲得應得的市場份額的一年。

On the license business, I mean, the -- over the last several years, we've been pretty consistent with -- around the mid-30s revenue from those businesses, some of our biggest partners in the Middle East with Alshaya and Box. Obviously, a lot of disruption over the last couple of years, but their businesses are stabilizing to come back a bit.

關於授權業務，我的意思是，在過去幾年裡，我們從這些業務中獲得的收入一直相當穩定，大約在 35% 左右，我們在中東最大的一些合作夥伴是 Alshaya 和 Box。顯然，過去幾年出現了許多混亂，但他們的業務逐漸穩定並有所回升。

But you can assume something similar. We're assessing some things around kind of future international growth. The majority of our international revenues, as you know, is from Canada and Mexico. So over 10% of our total revenue.

但你可以假設一些類似的事情。我們正在評估未來國際成長的一些情況。如您所知，我們的大部分國際收入來自加拿大和墨西哥。占我們總收入的10%以上。

(technical difficulty) (inaccessible microphone)

（技術故障）（麥克風無法使用）

Yes, it's sort of amazing, to Jay's point. It would have been going on in the Middle East that has bounced back, but pretty consistent to that.

是的，正如傑伊所說，這確實令人驚訝。這本來會發生在中東地區，但已經恢復了，但與此相當一致。

(multiple speakers) Warm weather, that's a good sign.

（多位發言者）天氣變暖，是個好兆頭。

Yes. So nothing to think about in terms of anything significantly different from the license piece of that with what we have talked about in the last several years is the great growth, to Jay's point, coming out of Mexico. We have a lot of room there. It's been a nice impact to the AE brand over the last several years.

是的。因此，就許可證部分而言，沒有什麼可以考慮的，就像我們在過去幾年中談論的那樣，這就是傑伊所說的來自墨西哥的巨大增長。我們那裡有很多房間。過去幾年來它對 AE 品牌產生了良好的影響。

We've kind of only getting started there in OFFLINE. So it's very small penetration to the total for those two brands in Mexico with plans to grow those brands in the market still.

我們才剛開始離線工作。因此，這兩個品牌在墨西哥的總滲透率非常小，我們仍計劃在市場上擴大這兩個品牌的規模。

I think there were some -- I was just saying I think there's some Hong Kong that were converted. So just is there not the change or an approach to looking more to licensing internationally? Or was that a one-off?

我認為有一些——我剛才說了我認為有一些香港人已經轉變了。那麼，是否就沒有改變或採取更多國際化授權的方式？或者這只是一次性事件？

Yes. We shifted that business from an owned model to a license model in the back half. That was, I think, a strategic move for profitability purposes and just to have a partner in the market. Our owned markets that are really at this point are Canada and Mexico now. So growth in the future in other markets would be more through partnerships in one way or the other is our strategic thinking, yes.

是的。我們在後半年將業務從自有模式轉變為授權模式。我認為，這是一個為了獲利目的並為了在市場上擁有合作夥伴的策略性舉措。我們現在真正擁有的市場是加拿大和墨西哥。因此，未來在其他市場的成長將更多地透過合作來實現，這是我們的戰略思想。

We have time for one more question.

我們還有時間再回答一個問題。

Alex Straton, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的亞歷克斯·斯特拉頓。

And maybe for Jen. Just -- you mentioned a number of top line initiatives that should build throughout the year and enable that post first quarter sales improvement. You mentioned a number of things. So I just want to understand how you think about that, maybe in terms of buckets or which are the top ones?

對 Jen 來說也許如此。剛才—您提到了一些應該在全年推行並實現第一季後銷售成長的頂級計劃。您提到了一些事情。所以我只是想了解您是如何看待這個問題的，也許是從儲存桶的角度，或者哪些是最重要的？

And then just a quick follow-up on the tariff response. I think you said you're moving China sourcing exposure pretty materially into the back half. I'm just curious where are you going? Or where are you shifting that?

然後只是對關稅回應進行快速跟進。我記得您說過，您正在將中國採購業務大幅轉移到後半年。我只是好奇你要去哪裡？或者您要將其轉移到哪裡？

Sure. First and foremost, coming out of Q4, we had strong results. And going into Q1, we had some inventory opportunities and some good news and some bad news, right, going into the quarter. We definitely had some inventory outages, but it allows us to be nimble. We are chasing denim after -- in women's in particular after a strong fourth quarter comp.

當然。首先，從第四季來看，我們取得了強勁的業績。進入第一季度，我們有一些庫存機會、一些好消息和一些壞消息。我們確實遇到了一些庫存短缺的問題，但這讓我們能夠靈活應對。在第四季度業績表現強勁之後，我們正在追逐牛仔布——尤其是女裝。

And then there has been some product misses that we are acknowledging. And most of it is due to inventory. So again, we needed some inventory here in some key categories, in Aerie, in particular. And we're seeing just some wins in some businesses that we could have had more of.

然後我們承認有一些產品缺失。其中大部分是由於庫存造成的。所以，我們再次強調，我們需要一些關鍵類別的庫存，特別是 Aerie。我們看到一些業務取得了一些成功，而我們本來可以取得更多的成功。

So for instance, in Aerie, soft dressing, sleepwear has been -- actually across all categories, sleep and lounge has been really doing well, chasing that graphics has been great. So of course, we have early reads. And this is what we do day in and day out. So the early reads, we're reacting to. We're ensuring that our inventory is nimble.

舉例來說，在 Aerie，軟裝、睡衣實際上在所有類別中，睡眠和休閒裝一直表現良好，追逐圖形一直很棒。因此，我們當然有早期的讀數。這就是我們日復一日所做的事情。我們對早期的閱讀做出了反應。我們確保我們的庫存靈活。

We're ensuring that we're open on the back half, which is obviously -- it's our Super Bowl as we enter into Q3 when we're such a denim-driven business, and denim drives behavior for all of our brands, which is important to note. Denim drives traffic to our site, and then we cross-pollinate throughout our brands. So that's really important to know, and we're setting ourselves up for the back half of the winning in denim. And I feel like the teams are doing a great job.

我們確保下半年保持開放，這顯然是——這是我們的超級碗，因為我們進入了第三季度，我們是一個以牛仔佈為主導的業務，而牛仔布推動著我們所有品牌的行為，這一點很重要。牛仔佈為我們的網站帶來流量，然後我們在各個品牌之間進行相互影響。所以了解這一點非常重要，我們正在為牛仔布市場的後半段勝利做好準備。我覺得這些團隊表現得非常好。

And then, of course, we're monitoring our promotional cadence, balancing AURs at opening price points, very important right now. And of course, just reading the business day in and day -- but mostly staying connected to our customer. We send a lot of data analytics around our customer, where she is and what she wants and the fluidity of that is really important in today's business, right?

然後，當然，我們正在監控我們的促銷節奏，平衡開盤價的 AUR，現在非常重要。當然，我們每天都會閱讀商業新聞，但最主要的是與我們的客戶保持聯繫。我們向客戶發送大量數據分析，了解她在哪裡、她想要什麼以及這些的流動性在當今的商業中真的很重要，對吧？

One week, she's in stores or he's in stores, in the next week they're online shopping. And we have to open up the gates and ensure we are addressing where that customer is and obviously delivering to that customer. And that's a high intent for the balance of this year.

這一周，她在商店或他在商店，下一周他們就在網上購物。我們必須打開大門，確保我們能夠解決客戶的問題，並向客戶提供服務。這也是今年平衡目標的崇高目標。

Great. And then just on that China sourcing question?

偉大的。那麼關於中國採購的問題呢？

Can you repeat the question?

你能重複一下這個問題嗎？

I think in the prior tariff question, maybe Mike can answer that. You guys are moving China production from like a high teens percentage of the business to single digits or something. So I'm just wondering where that's going?

我認為，在先前的關稅問題中，也許麥克可以回答這個問題。你們正在將中國生產的份額從大約百分之十幾轉移到個位數左右。所以我只是想知道那是怎麼回事？

Yes, we did built -- that's the plan for now. But again, flexibility is key. So to Jay's point earlier, depending on what actually happens, we can decide if we ultimately do that or not, and we have redundancy to move as needed.

是的，我們確實建造了——這是目前的計劃。但同樣，靈活性才是關鍵。所以正如傑伊之前所說，根據實際情況，我們可以決定最終是否這樣做，並且我們可以根據需要保留冗餘。

But if needed, if things that are being projected or said about China actually do occur, we have the plans right now to go from high teens to single digits. We source across 15 countries. The teams have built redundancy across those countries. We will flex as needed.

但如果需要的話，如果有關中國的預測或說法確實發生的話，我們現在的計劃是將這一數字從百分之十幾降至個位數。我們的採購範圍遍及 15 個國家。這些團隊已在這些國家建立了冗餘。我們將根據需要靈活調整。

Thank you. That concludes our question-and-answer session. This is the end of today's conference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

謝謝。我們的問答環節到此結束。今天的發表會到此結束。我們感謝您的參與。現在您可以斷開您的線路。