Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) 2018 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Advanced Energy Industries' Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 Advanced Energy Industries 2018 年第三季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I'd now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Edwin Mok, Vice President of Strategic Marketing and Investors Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，戰略營銷和投資者關係副總裁 Edwin Mok 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Operator. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Advanced Energy's Third Quarter 2018 Earnings Conference Call. With me on today's call are Yuval Wasserman, our President and CEO; Paul Oldham, our Executive Vice President and CFO; and Brian Smith, our Director of Investor Relations.

謝謝你，運營商。大家，早安。歡迎來到 Advanced Energy 2018 年第三季度收益電話會議。和我一起參加今天電話會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Yuval Wasserman；我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Paul Oldham；和我們的投資者關係總監 Brian Smith。

Before we begin, I'd like to mention that AE will be participating at the Wells Fargo Tech Summit and the New York City CEO Summit both in December, and the Needham Growth Conference in January. As all events occur, we will make additional announcements.

在我們開始之前，我想提一下，AE 將參加 12 月份的 Wells Fargo 技術峰會和紐約市 CEO 峰會，以及 1 月份的 Needham Growth 會議。隨著所有事件的發生，我們將發布額外的公告。

And now, let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements, including the company's current view of its industry, performance, products, applications and business outlook. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks and uncertainties is contained in our filings with the SEC. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates, projections and assumptions as of today, October 30, 2018, and the company assumes no obligation to update them. Aspirational goals and targets discussed on this conference call, or in the presentation material, should not be interpreted in any respect as guidance. Today's call also includes non-GAAP adjusted financial measures, which exclude the effects of discontinued operations, stock compensation expenses, amortization of intangibles, restructuring charges, acquisition-related costs and other one-time items. Reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures are contained in yesterday's earnings release, which is available on our Investor Relations page of our website. We'll be referring to earnings slides posted on the Investor section of our website as well.

現在，讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，包括公司當前對其行業、業績、產品、應用和業務前景的看法。這些陳述受風險和不確定因素的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不是對未來業績的保證。有關這些風險和不確定性的信息包含在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理層截至 2018 年 10 月 30 日的估計、預測和假設，公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。本次電話會議或演示材料中討論的理想目標和具體目標不應在任何方面被解釋為指導。今天的電話會議還包括非 GAAP 調整後的財務指標，其中不包括已終止業務的影響、股票補償費用、無形資產攤銷、重組費用、收購相關成本和其他一次性項目。GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施之間的對賬包含在昨天的收益發布中，可在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上獲取。我們還將參考發佈在我們網站投資者部分的收益幻燈片。

With that, let me pass the call to Advanced Energy's President and CEO, Yuval Wasserman. Yuval?

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給 Advanced Energy 的總裁兼首席執行官 Yuval Wasserman。尤瓦爾？

Thank you, Edwin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call.

謝謝你，埃德溫。大家早上好，感謝您加入我們的第三季度收益電話會議。

Our third quarter results reflected the dynamic demand environment in the semiconductor market. Both our industrial and service revenues again achieved record high, partially offsetting lower semi revenues and resulting in a total revenue decline of 2% year-over-year. In addition, we advanced our diversification growth strategy by completing the acquisition of LumaSense Technologies, expanding our footprint in several industrial technology markets. Despite the near-term challenges in the quarter, we delivered solid financial results, exceeding the midpoint of our revenue and EPS targets with adjusted operating margins of 26%.

我們第三季度的業績反映了半導體市場動態的需求環境。我們的工業和服務收入再次創下歷史新高，部分抵消了較低的半收入，導致總收入同比下降 2%。此外，我們通過完成對 LumaSense Technologies 的收購推進了我們的多元化增長戰略，擴大了我們在多個工業技術市場的足跡。儘管本季度面臨近期挑戰，但我們取得了穩健的財務業績，超過了收入和每股收益目標的中點，調整後的營業利潤率為 26%。

In semiconductors, the impact of delays in memory expansion by large chip makers drove our semi revenues to decline sequentially and year-over-year. Further, we expect our semi revenues to decline again in the current quarter, as equipment OEMs reduce their finished goods inventories. Despite the near-term weakness, we continue to believe this does represent a normal and modest digestion period within the semiconductor industry with equipment investment impacted largely by yield, technology transition and IC device ASPs. The long-term growth drivers for our semi business, including both the broad underlying demand for semiconductors and the continued increase in the dependence on power supply technology, resulting in growing power content in etch, deposition, and other production processes remain intact.

在半導體領域，大型芯片製造商延遲內存擴展的影響導致我們的半導體收入環比和同比下降。此外，我們預計本季度我們的半成品收入將再次下降，因為設備原始設備製造商減少了成品庫存。儘管近期疲軟，但我們仍然認為這確實代表了半導體行業的正常和適度消化期，設備投資主要受產量、技術轉型和 IC 設備平均售價的影響。我們半導體業務的長期增長動力，包括對半導體的廣泛潛在需求和對電源技術依賴性的持續增加，導致蝕刻、沉積和其他生產過程中不斷增長的功率含量保持不變。

The pace of innovation in semiconductor manufacturing continues at high velocity. Our customers come to AE for solutions to the toughest technical challenges in scaling both leading-edge logic and memory devices. This not only spurs growth of the overall power market, but also creates opportunities to gain market share as we look to displace competitors with our differentiated technology. As a supplier of critical technologies and plasma-based etch and deposition processes, we see increased adoption of our highest-performance power supplies and matching networks.

半導體製造的創新步伐繼續保持高速。我們的客戶來到 AE 尋求解決方案，以應對在擴展前沿邏輯和存儲設備方面最嚴峻的技術挑戰。這不僅刺激了整個電力市場的增長，而且還創造了獲得市場份額的機會，因為我們希望用我們的差異化技術取代競爭對手。作為關鍵技術和基於等離子的蝕刻和沈積工藝的供應商，我們看到越來越多地採用我們的最高性能電源和匹配網絡。

This quarter, we won multiple new designs, including one major win for an application in advanced memory where we displaced the incumbent supplier in new technology. Our commitment to innovation and focused engineering investment allows us to enable our customers as they develop the next generation of semiconductor manufacturing technology and process.

本季度，我們贏得了多項新設計，其中一項重大勝利是在高級內存應用中，我們在新技術中取代了現有供應商。我們對創新的承諾和專注的工程投資使我們能夠幫助我們的客戶開發下一代半導體製造技術和工藝。

In our industrial markets, we had another strong quarter. Revenues were once again at the record high in Q3, growing 35% year-over-year. Excluding the contribution of acquisitions, industrial grew 15% year-over-year. This demand came from multiple markets and across our product portfolio.

在我們的工業市場，我們有另一個強勁的季度。第三季度收入再次創歷史新高，同比增長 35%。排除收購的貢獻，工業同比增長 15%。這種需求來自多個市場和我們的產品組合。

In thin films, we had a significant shipment to a solar PV manufacturer we secured in the second quarter, which more than offset the weakness in a general PV production equipment market. We also saw flat panel display investment in China for both OLED and large-screen capacities, while demand for hard industrial coating for both consumer and automotive applications moderated in the quarter. More importantly, we won multiple designs during the quarter, with new applications in glass, hard coatings and display.

在薄膜方面，我們在第二季度向一家太陽能光伏製造商發貨，這大大抵消了一般光伏生產設備市場的疲軟。我們還看到中國對 OLED 和大屏幕產能的平板顯示器投資，而本季度消費者和汽車應用對硬質工業塗層的需求有所放緩。更重要的是，我們在本季度贏得了多項設計，在玻璃、硬塗層和顯示器方面都有新的應用。

Specialty Power saw strength in power control and thermal management for thin film batteries, PV solar, glass and steel production. Last week, at the Glasstec Trade Fair, we published a paper with our partner Siemens on our joint efforts on advanced process control for TFT glass production, validating our success in this area. We also had multiple design wins in the medical equipment market, including one powering instruments for geomapping and a second one for electroporation therapy.

Specialty Power 在薄膜電池、光伏太陽能、玻璃和鋼鐵生產的功率控制和熱管理方面具有優勢。上週，在 Glasstec 貿易展覽會上，我們與合作夥伴西門子發表了一篇關於我們在 TFT 玻璃生產先進過程控制方面的共同努力的論文，證實了我們在這一領域的成功。我們還在醫療設備市場贏得多項設計大獎，包括一款用於地理測繪的供電儀器和另一款用於電穿孔治療的儀器。

Overall, we expect our industrial business in the fourth quarter to grow year-over-year, but decline sequentially following a record third quarter with incremental revenues from LumaSense partially offsetting the typical fourth quarter seasonal decline in our core industrial markets.

總體而言，我們預計第四季度我們的工業業務將同比增長，但在創紀錄的第三季度之後連續下降，LumaSense 的增量收入部分抵消了我們核心工業市場第四季度典型的季節性下滑。

Acquisition has been an important part of our revenue growth strategy. During the quarter, we took a significant step forward by closing the acquisition of LumaSense Technologies, our largest transaction so far. LumaSense greatly expands our offering around critical measurement and sensing technologies, including barometry, temperature control and process material metrology solutions, and broadens our exposure to power-intensive industrial applications.

收購一直是我們收入增長戰略的重要組成部分。本季度，我們向前邁出了重要一步，完成了對 LumaSense Technologies 的收購，這是我們迄今為止最大的一筆交易。LumaSense 極大地擴展了我們圍繞關鍵測量和傳感技術提供的產品，包括氣壓、溫度控制和過程材料計量解決方案，並拓寬了我們在功率密集型工業應用領域的覆蓋範圍。

We are actively integrating our 4 acquisitions we completed over the last 5 quarters, and we have already started to make progress in driving integrated product offering. Combined, these businesses generated over $90 million of annualized revenue in Q3 on a pro forma basis. With additional revenue and cost synergies coming, we continue to anticipate solid returns for these acquisitions. We remain committed to our stringent M&A process and are confident we will add more inorganic revenues in the future.

我們正在積極整合過去 5 個季度完成的 4 筆收購，我們已經開始在推動集成產品供應方面取得進展。根據備考，這些業務在第三季度共產生了超過 9000 萬美元的年化收入。隨著額外收入和成本協同效應的到來，我們繼續期待這些收購的可觀回報。我們仍然致力於嚴格的併購流程，並有信心在未來增加更多的無機收入。

Our service business hit another record quarter, increasing 17% year-over-year. In addition to an expanding install base, we are strategically growing this business with programs in product refurbishment, retrofits, upgrades and regional expansion. Looking forward, we expect service to continue to grow at greater than 10% CAGR, as we gain share from third-party providers and expand our engineering service solutions.

我們的服務業務季度再創新高，同比增長 17%。除了不斷擴大的安裝基礎外，我們還通過產品翻新、改造、升級和區域擴張計劃戰略性地發展這項業務。展望未來，隨著我們從第三方供應商那裡獲得份額並擴展我們的工程服務解決方案，我們預計服務將繼續以超過 10% 的複合年增長率增長。

In summary, we expect capacity digestion in semiconductor to create headwinds for our semi business in the current quarter. Industrial sales in the fourth quarter should be down sequentially, while our service revenue should reach yet another record high. Despite the pause in the semiconductor market, we continue to expect overall revenue growth in both 2018 and 2019 for Advanced Energy.

總而言之，我們預計半導體產能消化將在本季度對我們的半導體業務造成不利影響。第四季度的工業銷售應該會環比下降，而我們的服務收入應該會再創歷史新高。儘管半導體市場停滯不前，我們仍預計 Advanced Energy 2018 年和 2019 年的整體收入將增長。

While we are taking some steps in the near term to manage our cost structure and accelerate integration of acquisitions, we will continue to invest in developing our core technologies, products and channels to expand our leadership.

雖然我們在近期採取一些措施來管理我們的成本結構和加速收購整合，但我們將繼續投資開發我們的核心技術、產品和渠道，以擴大我們的領導地位。

In our core RF and DC power business, our market share remains more than double that of the next-biggest competitor. With a solid pipeline of our precision power innovations and our deep applications knowledge, we will stay at the forefront of leading-edge technology advances. Leveraging our financial model and cash position, we have an active acquisition funnel targeting to take our business to the next level. Our drive to achieve our stated aspirational targets remains in full force.

在我們的核心射頻和直流電源業務中，我們的市場份額仍然是第二大競爭對手的兩倍多。憑藉我們穩固的精密電源創新渠道和深厚的應用知識，我們將始終處於前沿技術進步的前沿。利用我們的財務模型和現金狀況，我們有一個積極的收購渠道目標，將我們的業務提升到一個新的水平。我們實現既定遠大目標的動力仍然在全力以赴。

I'd like to thank our customers, shareholders, partners and our valued employees for your support. I look forward to seeing many of you in the upcoming quarter.

我要感謝我們的客戶、股東、合作夥伴和我們尊貴的員工的支持。我期待在即將到來的季度見到你們中的許多人。

With that, let me turn the call over the Paul.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給保羅。

Thank you, Yuval, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, we continued to execute on our strategy to grow and diversify the company, while feeling the impact of the near-term pause in capital spending by semiconductor manufacturers.

謝謝 Yuval，大家早上好。在第三季度，我們繼續執行公司發展和多元化的戰略，同時感受到半導體製造商近期暫停資本支出的影響。

Total revenue was $173 million, down 12% from last quarter's record levels, but just 2% from a year ago. Both industrial and service revenues achieved record levels again in Q3, partially offsetting the decline in the semi market. Despite the overall decline in Q3, year-to-date revenues are up 15% with 6% growth in semi and 46% growth in our industrial products. The LumaSense acquisition, which closed at the beginning of September, added $5.6 million.

總收入為 1.73 億美元，比上一季度的創紀錄水平下降 12%，但僅比一年前下降 2%。工業和服務收入在第三季度再次創下歷史新高，部分抵消了半導體市場的下滑。儘管第三季度整體下滑，但年初至今的收入增長了 15%，其中半成品增長了 6%，我們的工業產品增長了 46%。9 月初完成的 LumaSense 收購增加了 560 萬美元。

Looking at sales by market, semiconductor revenue in the quarter was $96.4 million, down 24% from last quarter and 17% year-over-year. The impact was broad-based and not from a single customer or product area and was the result of the capital spending delays we have already discussed. This delayed investment will also affect our Q4 semi revenues and may extend into early 2019 as our customers reduce their finished goods inventories.

從市場銷售額來看，本季度半導體收入為 9640 萬美元，比上一季度下降 24%，同比下降 17%。這種影響是廣泛的，而不是來自單一的客戶或產品領域，並且是我們已經討論過的資本支出延遲的結果。這種延遲的投資也將影響我們第四季度的半成品收入，並且可能會延續到 2019 年初，因為我們的客戶減少了成品庫存。

Industrial revenues saw significant growth and reached a record $48.5 million, up 16% from the second quarter and 35% from last year. Even excluding the impact of LumaSense, it still would have been a record quarter with strength from our large win in PV solar as well as glass and thermal applications. Looking forward, we expect industrial revenues in Q4 to be seasonally lower, in line with historical trends and up year-over-year. Longer term, we continue to expect our industrial products to grow in the mid-teens range.

工業收入大幅增長，達到創紀錄的 4850 萬美元，比第二季度增長 16%，比去年增長 35%。即使排除 LumaSense 的影響，由於我們在光伏太陽能以及玻璃和熱應用方面的巨大勝利，這仍然是一個創紀錄的季度。展望未來，我們預計第四季度的工業收入將出現季節性下降，與歷史趨勢一致並同比上升。從長遠來看，我們繼續預計我們的工業產品將在十幾歲左右的範圍內增長。

Service revenue for the quarter was also a record, at $28.2 million, up 5% from the second quarter and 17% from last year. As industrial and service continue to grow and make up a larger portion of total revenues, they will both boost our overall growth rate and help to offset fluctuations in our semiconductor market.

本季度的服務收入也創歷史新高，達到 2820 萬美元，比第二季度增長 5%，比去年同期增長 17%。隨著工業和服務業繼續增長並佔總收入的更大比例，它們將提高我們的整體增長率並有助於抵消我們半導體市場的波動。

Gross margin for the third quarter was 49.4%. On a non-GAAP basis, gross margin was 50% compared to 51.8% last quarter, largely due to lower revenues and unfavorable product mix. We also saw higher warranty due to timing of repairs and expedited costs early in the quarter. Looking forward, in the fourth quarter, we expect adjusted gross margins to be in the same range on lower revenues.

第三季度的毛利率為 49.4%。按非美國通用會計準則計算，毛利率為 50%，而上一季度為 51.8%，這主要是由於收入下降和不利的產品組合。由於本季度初的維修時間和加速成本，我們還看到了更高的保修期。展望未來，在第四季度，我們預計調整後的毛利率將在較低的收入範圍內。

GAAP operating expenses in Q3 were $45.7 million, increased by about $450,000 over Q2, primarily as a result of the addition of LumaSense. Non-GAAP operating expenses from continuing operations were $42.2 million or 24.4% of revenue. This compares to $41.9 million or 21.3% in the prior quarter. Excluding the addition of LumaSense, operating expenses decreased $2 million or about 5%, primarily the result of lower headcount and temporary actions we are taking to control costs. GAAP operating expenses also included approximately $400,000 of restructuring expense.

第三季度的 GAAP 運營費用為 4570 萬美元，比第二季度增加了約 450,000 美元，這主要是由於增加了 LumaSense。來自持續經營的非 GAAP 運營費用為 4220 萬美元，佔收入的 24.4%。相比之下，上一季度為 4190 萬美元或 21.3%。不包括增加 LumaSense，運營費用減少了 200 萬美元或約 5%，這主要是由於員工人數減少和我們為控製成本而採取的臨時措施。GAAP 運營費用還包括大約 400,000 美元的重組費用。

Looking forward, we expect to incur $3 million to $6 million of additional restructuring expense in the fourth quarter, a result of actions we are putting in place to optimize our manufacturing footprint, improve efficiencies and realize synergies related to our acquisitions.

展望未來，我們預計第四季度將產生 300 萬至 600 萬美元的額外重組費用，這是我們為優化製造足跡、提高效率和實現與收購相關的協同效應而採取的行動的結果。

In addition, during the fourth quarter, we will be taking a number of temporary actions to reduce cost, including reducing discretionary spending and taking additional time off, particularly in manufacturing consistent with our lower volumes. We believe these actions will allow us to moderate spending while continuing to invest in our strategic efforts to drive growth. Despite a full quarter of LumaSense expense, we expect non-GAAP operating expenses in the fourth quarter to only be up $3 million to $4 million, with sequentially lower cost in native AE.

此外，在第四季度，我們將採取一些臨時措施來降低成本，包括減少可自由支配的支出和額外休假，特別是在與我們較低產量保持一致的製造業中。我們相信這些行動將使我們能夠在繼續投資於我們推動增長的戰略努力的同時節制支出。儘管 LumaSense 支出了整個季度，但我們預計第四季度的非 GAAP 運營支出僅增長 300 萬至 400 萬美元，而原生 AE 的成本將依次降低。

GAAP operating margin for the quarter was 23% compared to 28.6% last quarter and 29.2% in the same period last year. Non-GAAP operating margin was 25.6% compared to 30.5% in the previous quarter and 31.9% a year ago. Although LumaSense contributed positively to operating income, it negatively impacted operating margins by 50 basis points. For the fourth quarter, we expect this impact to be 150 to 200 basis points on a full quarter of LumaSense revenue and expenses.

本季度 GAAP 營業利潤率為 23%，上一季度為 28.6%，去年同期為 29.2%。非美國通用會計準則營業利潤率為 25.6%，上一季度為 30.5%，一年前為 31.9%。儘管 LumaSense 對營業收入做出了積極貢獻，但它對營業利潤率產生了 50 個基點的負面影響。對於第四季度，我們預計這一影響將對 LumaSense 整個季度的收入和支出產生 150 至 200 個基點。

Our GAAP tax rate for the third quarter was 12.7%, primarily the result of expiration of the statute of limitations on historical exposures and implementation of our tax-planning strategies. In addition, as part of the adoption of U.S. tax reform, we updated our assertion regarding permanent reinvestment to foreign earnings, which resulted in a charge of approximately $2.4 million. Excluding this item, the non-GAAP tax rate was 8%. We expect our tax rate in Q4 to be in the very low double-digits, reflecting some of these same benefits. Longer-term, we expect the non-GAAP tax rate to be in the 15% to 16% range.

我們第三季度的 GAAP 稅率為 12.7%，這主要是由於歷史風險敞口的訴訟時效到期和我們的稅收規劃戰略的實施。此外，作為採用美國稅制改革的一部分，我們更新了關於對外國收益進行永久再投資的斷言，這導致了大約 240 萬美元的費用。剔除此項，非美國通用會計準則稅率為 8%。我們預計第四季度的稅率將處於非常低的兩位數，反映出其中一些相同的好處。從長遠來看，我們預計非 GAAP 稅率將在 15% 至 16% 的範圍內。

GAAP earnings per share from continuing operations for the third quarter were $0.90 compared to $1.17 last quarter and $2.09 last year, which included a nonrecurring tax benefit of $40 million associated with the closure of the solar inverter business. Non-GAAP EPS for the quarter was $1.05 compared to $1.25 in the second quarter and $1.19 a year ago. LumaSense was accretive by approximately $0.01 per share to non-GAAP earnings.

第三季度來自持續經營業務的 GAAP 每股收益為 0.90 美元，而上一季度為 1.17 美元，去年為 2.09 美元，其中包括與關閉太陽能逆變器業務相關的 4000 萬美元非經常性稅收優惠。本季度非美國通用會計準則每股收益為 1.05 美元，而第二季度為 1.25 美元，一年前為 1.19 美元。LumaSense 的非 GAAP 收益每股增加約 0.01 美元。

Turning to the balance sheet, in the third quarter, we generated $31 million of cash from continuing operations. We invested approximately $85 million of net cash on the LumaSense acquisition and $31 million to repurchase 533,000 shares of stock. In addition, since the beginning of Q4, we repurchased an additional $11 million worth of stock, bringing our year-to-date purchases to approximately $80 million for 1.35 million shares. Since the inception of our program in 2015, we have spent approximately $160 million to repurchase 3.5 million shares.

談到資產負債表，在第三季度，我們從持續經營中產生了 3100 萬美元的現金。我們在收購 LumaSense 時投入了約 8,500 萬美元的淨現金，並投入了 3,100 萬美元回購 533,000 股股票。此外，自第四季度初以來，我們又回購了價值 1100 萬美元的股票，使我們年初至今的回購額達到約 8000 萬美元，共計 135 萬股。自 2015 年啟動該計劃以來，我們已花費約 1.6 億美元回購 350 萬股股票。

Our cash and marketable securities balance at quarter end was $342 million.

我們在季度末的現金和有價證券餘額為 3.42 億美元。

Net working capital increased during the quarter. Days sales outstanding increased to 57 days compared to 49 days last quarter largely due to geographic mix and the addition of LumaSense, which added about $8 million of receivables.

本季度淨營運資本有所增加。銷售未付天數從上一季度的 49 天增加到 57 天，這主要是由於地域組合和 LumaSense 的加入，後者增加了約 800 萬美元的應收賬款。

Days payable declined from 55 days to 47 days, primarily due to the timing of purchases and payments in the quarter.

應付天數從 55 天減少到 47 天，這主要是由於本季度採購和付款的時間安排。

Inventory turns decreased from 3.5 to 3.2 times on roughly flat inventory levels. However, excluding the addition of LumaSense, inventory declined by about $10 million. We expect inventory to further decline from these levels in the fourth quarter.

庫存周轉率從 3.5 倍降至 3.2 倍，庫存水平基本持平。然而，不包括 LumaSense 的加入，庫存下降了約 1000 萬美元。我們預計第四季度庫存將從這些水平進一步下降。

Given the current market conditions and order levels, we expect revenues for the fourth quarter to be between $150 million to $160 million, and non-GAAP earnings per share between $0.70 and $0.80.

鑑於當前的市場狀況和訂單水平，我們預計第四季度的收入將在 1.5 億美元至 1.6 億美元之間，非 GAAP 每股收益將在 0.70 美元至 0.80 美元之間。

In summary, we were able to deliver solid profitability in a down market, and are prepared to see leveraged growth in earnings when the market recovers. In the near term, we are controlling discretionary spending while maintaining the core investments that will protect our competitive advantages and fuel long-term growth. We remain bullish about the long-term growth potential and drivers in our core markets, and we continue to innovate to maintain our leadership position. Further, we will use our balance sheet to accelerate growth and expand our addressable markets.

總而言之，我們能夠在低迷的市場中實現穩健的盈利能力，並準備在市場復甦時看到收益的槓桿增長。在短期內，我們將控制可自由支配的支出，同時保持核心投資，以保護我們的競爭優勢並推動長期增長。我們仍然看好我們核心市場的長期增長潛力和驅動力，我們將繼續創新以保持我們的領先地位。此外，我們將利用我們的資產負債表來加速增長並擴大我們的潛在市場。

With that, let me turn it over to the operator for questions. Operator?

有了這個，讓我把它交給接線員提問。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

I had a couple of them. Yuval or Paul, thanks for the color on Q4 and into Q1. So is it fair to assume in Q4 sequentially, industrials is down in the mid-single-digits and semis is down double-digits is the right way to think about it or --

我有幾個。Yuval 或 Paul，感謝 Q4 和 Q1 的顏色。那麼，在第四季度連續假設工業股下跌兩位數而半成品下跌兩位數是正確的思考方式嗎，或者——

That's the right way to think about it, Krish, and just to reiterate, we see the decline in semi in line with peer companies in the market, and we see the industrial decline in Q4 as a seasonal decline we saw during the last 3 years in Q4 also more pronounced this time. We're coming from very strong Q2, right, so -- I'm sorry -- 3. So the combination of seasonal decline in industrial and in line with semi decline is a result of that as you said.

這是正確的思考方式，Krish，重申一下，我們看到半成品的下降與市場上的同行公司一致，我們認為第四季度的工業下降是我們在過去 3 年中看到的季節性下降這次在第四季度也更加明顯。我們來自非常強勁的第二季度，對，所以 - 對不起 - 3. 因此，正如你所說，工業季節性下降與半下降相結合是結果。

Got it, got it, that's very helpful. And then I think, Yuval, in your prepared comments, you did highlight that the weakness should continue into Q1. So I'm curious is that -- given improved facility, your customers think things are still going to be bigger, the more inventory dilution going on with your customers; or what -- the viewpoint into Q1, a quarter out?

明白了，明白了，很有用。然後我認為，Yuval，在你準備好的評論中，你確實強調了疲軟應該持續到第一季度。所以我很好奇 - 如果設施得到改善，您的客戶認為事情仍然會變得更大，您的客戶庫存稀釋得越多；或者什麼——進入 Q1 的觀點，四分之一？

Yes, I'm not sure if we said that's going to be V-shape, I'm sorry, Krish, but we see that -- this decline in Q4 as a result of our customers' disposal of finish with the inventories mainly. We don't -- we didn't forecast Q1 even directionally; we had obviously, uncertainty regarding to our customers' capabilities to dispose of all the finished goods inventories. As you know, we typically lag about a quarter behind our customers.

是的，我不確定我們是否說這將是 V 形，對不起，Krish，但我們看到了這一點——第四季度的下降主要是由於我們的客戶主要處理庫存。我們沒有——我們甚至沒有方向性地預測第一季度；顯然，我們對客戶處理所有成品庫存的能力存在不確定性。如您所知，我們通常落後客戶四分之一左右。

Got it, got it. And then two other quick questions -- how much was AMAT and LAM approximate sales in Q3?

明白了，明白了。然後是另外兩個快速問題——AMAT 和 LAM 在第三季度的銷售額大約是多少？

Just a second. Paul?

等一下。保羅？

Yes, AMAT was about $60 million and LAM was about $20 million.

是的，AMAT 約為 6000 萬美元，LAM 約為 2000 萬美元。

Got it, right. And then a final question -- you kind of alluded to the fact about a disciplined M&A process. And in the past, you guys have been mostly bolt-on M&A especially in the nonsemi side. And your biggest year has done more, I would say, bolt acquisitions. I'm curious, what is your view on transformational M&A, and what's this doing bolt-ons looking at?

明白了，沒錯。然後是最後一個問題——你提到了一個有紀律的併購過程的事實。在過去，你們主要是補強併購，尤其是在非半導體方面。你最大的一年做了更多，我想說，螺栓收購。我很好奇，您對轉型併購有何看法，這種補強措施的目的是什麼？

So it's a great question, Krish, thank you. We do entertain a funnel of potential targets and we have both large and small tuck-in targets. Our tuck-in targets are not sporadic; they're more of a rollup strategy. As you recall, we have a lot of companies in the high-voltage power supply arena. LumaSense brings the area of sensors and metrology to our portfolio, very in line with our (inaudible) product line. Our target acquisitions have both small-size acquisitions, but also large-size targets. As we continue to pursue transformational acquisitions, we will continue to do tuck-ins and rollup strategies.

所以這是一個很好的問題，Krish，謝謝。我們確實接受了一個潛在目標漏斗，我們有大大小小的目標。我們的目標不是零星的；它們更像是一種匯總策略。您還記得，我們在高壓電源領域有很多公司。LumaSense 將傳感器和計量領域納入我們的產品組合，與我們的（聽不清）產品線非常一致。我們的標的收購既有小標的，也有大標的。隨著我們繼續追求轉型收購，我們將繼續實施整合和匯總戰略。

Just to reiterate, over the last 5 quarters, we have added to our revenue incremental more than $90 million of revenue.

重申一下，在過去 5 個季度中，我們的收入增量增加了超過 9000 萬美元。

Annualized.

年化。

Annualized, on an annualized base, right? And all of these acquisitions are accretive, successful, growing and delivering cash and profit. So we're very pleased with the strategy, but at the same time, we continue to look at sizeable transformational acquisitions, for which we're willing to lever the company. However, we're extremely disciplined about the approach and want to make sure that we will be -- we do the right things.

年化，以年化為基礎，對吧？所有這些收購都是增值的、成功的、增長的並提供現金和利潤。因此，我們對該戰略感到非常滿意，但與此同時，我們繼續關注大規模的轉型收購，我們願意為此利用公司。然而，我們對這種方法非常自律，並希望確保我們會——我們做正確的事情。

Our next question comes from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Weston Twigg。

Our next question comes from Amanda Scarnati with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Amanda Scarnati。

Just a quick question on the semiconductor business and the design win that you saw and the advanced memory application. Can you just expand upon that a little bit, and when you expect to start to see revenue generated from that design win? And what sort of momentum you have in the advanced memory market at this point?

關於半導體業務和您看到的設計勝利以及高級內存應用的快速問題。您能否稍微擴展一下，以及您希望什麼時候開始看到該設計獲勝產生的收入？您目前在先進內存市場的發展勢頭如何？

This specific design win is in dielectric deposition, and it's meaningful. We are displacing an incumbent. I can't disclose the amount of the business related to that, but we're very excited about this design win. Just to reiterate, we continue to pursue design wins both in our core application space -- as you know, it's conductor etch -- but also in adjacent applications like the Olympic EDGE deposition and other plasma processes.

這個特定的設計勝利是在電介質沉積方面，它很有意義。我們正在取代現任者。我不能透露與此相關的業務量，但我們對這次設計獲勝感到非常興奮。重申一下，我們將繼續在我們的核心應用領域（如您所知，它是導體蝕刻）以及 Olympic EDGE 沉積和其他等離子工藝等相鄰應用領域追求設計勝利。

Okay. And then on the industrial side of the business, with the sequential decline next quarter, is LumaSense also expected to decline on a sequential basis? Is that sort of the normal seasonality for them, or is there still sort of growth coming from LumaSense on, say, a like-for-like basis for them?

好的。然後在業務的工業方面，隨著下個季度的環比下降，LumaSense 是否也有望環比下降？這對他們來說是正常的季節性嗎，或者 LumaSense 是否仍然有某種增長，比如說，對他們來說是一個類似的基礎？

Yes, thanks, Amanda. It's obviously still a business that's in transition for us, and so what we'd expect to see there is similar to the run rate. However, as you recall, about 25% of the business, it sells into the semi market and it's going to be impacted by the same factors we see in the rest of our semi business.

是的，謝謝，阿曼達。顯然，這對我們來說仍然是一項轉型中的業務，因此我們期望看到的情況與運行率相似。然而，正如您還記得的那樣，大約 25% 的業務銷往半成品市場，它將受到我們在其餘半成品業務中看到的相同因素的影響。

Okay. And then the last question I have is just on operating margins. With a couple of quarters of decline to operating margins, what are you -- or in revenue, and then operating margins, what are you doing to kind of help support growth in R&D, while still trying to maintain moderate operating margins?

好的。然後我的最後一個問題就是營業利潤率。隨著營業利潤率幾個季度的下降，你是什麼 - 或者收入，然後是營業利潤率，你在做什麼來幫助支持研發的增長，同時仍然試圖保持適度的營業利潤率？

So two things, Amanda -- we continue to invest in some critical programs that are very strategic to our future in cooperation with key customers, as we work with them to develop the next generation technology for semi and industrial applications. That investment continues even in a down market. It's a strategic investment for the company. At the same time, we are working on the operational side and the discretionary spending side to react to the decline in the business. But also as you recall, we had 4 companies acquired over the last 5 quarters, and we're in the process of integrating those acquired entities into the company.

所以有兩件事，阿曼達——我們繼續投資一些對我們的未來具有戰略意義的關鍵項目，與主要客戶合作，因為我們與他們合作開髮用於半工業和工業應用的下一代技術。即使在低迷的市場中，這種投資仍在繼續。這是公司的一項戰略投資。與此同時，我們正在運營方面和可自由支配的支出方面努力應對業務下滑。但你還記得，我們在過去 5 個季度收購了 4 家公司，我們正在將這些收購的實體整合到公司中。

And it's a process, right; it's a process that involves restructuring, consolidation, et cetera. So that's part of the investment we're making. So in one hand, we continue to invest in strategic technology development programs, and at the same time, we continue to adjust the spending and structure to accommodate the new structure of the company and the decline in the revenue.

這是一個過程，對嗎？這是一個涉及重組、合併等的過程。所以這是我們正在進行的投資的一部分。所以一方面，我們繼續投資於戰略技術發展計劃，同時，我們繼續調整支出和結構，以適應公司的新結構和收入的下降。

Yes, and I'll just add to that, Amanda. We did announce a restructuring program as part of our prepared remarks, but this is really aimed at improving the efficiency of the company and driving some of the integration synergies, as you've all described. We continue to be completely committed to our strategic investments and don't see any reduction in those.

是的，我會補充一點，阿曼達。我們確實宣布了一項重組計劃作為我們準備好的評論的一部分，但這實際上是為了提高公司的效率並推動一些整合協同效應，正如你們所描述的那樣。我們繼續完全致力於我們的戰略投資，並且看不到任何減少。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

This is Brian Chin on for Patrick. First off, could you provide the LumaSense revenue contribution in 3Q and kind of what you have embedded in the 4Q guide? And for 3Q, could you also break down what was in semi versus nonsemi?

我是帕特里克的 Brian Chin。首先，您能否提供 LumaSense 在第三季度的收入貢獻以及您在第四季度指南中嵌入的內容？對於 3Q，您能否也分解一下半成品和非半成品的內容？

Yes, Brian, thanks a lot. So the amount of LumaSense in the third quarter was $5.6 million and it was a little over $1 million in semi in the balance in industrial, so not that different of a mix than we talked about previously. As I mentioned, in the fourth quarter, we're not breaking that out specifically, but the general run rate holds with, like I said, the semi business is going to experience some of the same factors that we're seeing in the broader market. It sells into the same markets and it's seeing some of the same factors.

是的，布萊恩，非常感謝。因此，第三季度 LumaSense 的金額為 560 萬美元，而工業餘額中的半成品略高於 100 萬美元，因此與我們之前談到的組合沒有什麼不同。正如我提到的，在第四季度，我們並沒有具體打破這一點，但總體運行率保持不變，就像我說的那樣，半導體業務將經歷一些我們在更廣泛的領域看到的相同因素市場。它銷往相同的市場，並且看到了一些相同的因素。

Okay. All very helpful. I believe also you guided 4Q gross margin I believe roughly flat Q-on-Q, which is impressive given that the client volume in a full quarter of LumaSense was kind of serious with a substantial manufacturing footprint in China. Are you not seeing any drag on margins due to the current tariff environment, or how are you able to mitigate these impacts?

好的。一切都非常有幫助。我相信你也指導了第四季度的毛利率，我相信 Q-on-Q 大致持平，這是令人印象深刻的，因為 LumaSense 整個季度的客戶量有點嚴重，而且在中國有大量的製造足跡。由於當前的關稅環境，您是否沒有看到利潤率受到任何拖累，或者您如何能夠減輕這些影響？

Yes, that's a good question. When you look at tariffs for us, we don't have a lot of direct exposure to tariffs because we don't import a lot of parts directly to the U.S. We do manufacture in China; we also have manufacturing in other locations. But if you look with respect to China, as we export [some] products from China, mostly our customers buy those products directly. And frankly, we've been working very closely with them to mitigate any impacts to their business. And we think overall, that impact is going to be nominal because there's a number of both operational and commercial things that we can do to help mitigate that impact. The amount that we do use internally is largely for service, where we would bring the part in from China to do specific repairs in the U.S., and that would be for U.S. and its customers. So it's minimal, the impact on tariffs for us in China.

是的，這是個好問題。當您查看我們的關稅時，我們並沒有太多的直接關稅風險，因為我們沒有直接向美國進口很多零件。我們在中國製造；我們在其他地方也有製造。但如果你看看中國，當我們從中國出口[一些]產品時，我們的客戶大多直接購買這些產品。坦率地說，我們一直在與他們密切合作，以減輕對他們業務的任何影響。我們認為總體而言，這種影響將是微乎其微的，因為我們可以做很多運營和商業方面的事情來幫助減輕這種影響。我們在內部使用的數量主要用於服務，我們將從中國帶來零件在美國進行特定維修，這將用於美國及其客戶。所以這對我們在中國的關稅影響很小。

Relative to our manufacturing footprint, as you know, we do have a world-class manufacturing facility in China, and that does give us, we think, a lot of advantages from a flexibility perspective and from an overall cost perspective. And part of our actions is to continue to optimize our manufacturing footprint globally.

相對於我們的製造足跡，如你所知，我們在中國確實擁有世界級的製造工廠，我們認為，從靈活性的角度和總體成本的角度來看，這確實給了我們很多優勢。我們的部分行動是繼續優化我們在全球的製造足跡。

Got it, very helpful. Maybe one last question -- just doubling back in terms of the semi customer inventory work-down commentary, which echoes other critical subsystem suppliers. Even though it's difficult to call for a turn-up in the business right now in terms of visibility, are you also seeing a near term at least stabilization in the ordering rate out of that business, which I...

明白了，很有幫助。也許最後一個問題 - 只是在半客戶庫存工作下降評論方面加倍，這與其他關鍵子系統供應商相呼應。儘管就可見性而言現在很難要求業務出現，但您是否也看到該業務的訂購率至少在短期內穩定下來，我...

Yes, we -- right now, we cannot give you any guidance towards Q1 or even directionally. All of our customers are working through their own shipment from finished good inventory. Our visibility is limited and we cannot right now forecast Q1.

是的，我們——現在，我們不能給你任何關於第一季度甚至方向的指導。我們所有的客戶都在處理他們自己的成品庫存裝運。我們的能見度有限，我們現在無法預測第一季度。

Our next question comes Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Yes. Paul, I look at your days of inventory, it's almost 2 to 3-year high, and I assume some of it has to do with the number of acquisitions over the past several quarters. When do you think your inventory is going to trend down and to what extent? how should we think about improving free cash flows just as you reduce the inventory? And again, I'm assuming that a big chunk of this step-up has to do with the acquisitions. And I have a follow-up.

是的。保羅，我看看你的庫存天數，這幾乎是 2 到 3 年來的最高水平，我認為這在一定程度上與過去幾個季度的收購數量有關。您認為您的庫存什麼時候會下降，下降到什麼程度？我們應該如何在減少庫存的同時考慮改善自由現金流？再一次，我假設這一升級的很大一部分與收購有關。我有一個後續行動。

Yes, that's a good question, Mehdi. Thank you. So if you look at our inventory for actually Q3, it was about flat with Q2. But underneath that, we added $10 million of acquired inventory from LumaSense and reduced our, I'll say, our native inventory by basically that same amount. So we did see a meaningful reduction and we expect to continue to see a roughly similar reduction in Q4. If you look at the overall acquired inventory, it's in the mid-teens of millions of dollars when you look over this full year. When you add in that LumaSense, we only had the revenues for a quarter, then that's going to clearly impact the metric of either days of inventory or inventory turns. So we'll see some natural pickup in the fourth quarter because both inventories will trend lower and we'll have a full quarter of LumaSense sales. But the denominator matters here, and in a low environment, a lower revenue environment, then the metrics are going to look a little bit [important].

是的，這是個好問題，邁赫迪。謝謝。因此，如果您查看我們實際上第三季度的庫存，它與第二季度基本持平。但在此之下，我們增加了 1000 萬美元從 LumaSense 收購的庫存，並減少了我們的，我會說，我們的本地庫存基本上相同的數量。所以我們確實看到了有意義的減少，我們預計第四季度將繼續看到大致類似的減少。如果您查看整個收購的庫存，那麼當您查看全年時，它的價值在數千萬美元左右。當您添加 LumaSense 時，我們只有一個季度的收入，那麼這將明顯影響庫存天數或庫存周轉率的指標。因此，我們將在第四季度看到一些自然回升，因為兩個庫存都將呈下降趨勢，我們將有一個完整季度的 LumaSense 銷售額。但是分母在這裡很重要，在低收入環境中，收入較低的環境中，指標看起來會有點[重要]。

Certainly, as our revenues recover, and we work out inventory, our goal is to see those inventory turns and days come back into a normalized range. And that will probably take 2 or 3 quarters to work its way through, but from a pure cash perspective, we'd expect to continue to see inventories work their way down from here just like they did last quarter.

當然，隨著我們的收入恢復，我們計算庫存，我們的目標是看到這些庫存周轉和天數回到正常範圍內。這可能需要 2 或 3 個季度才能完成，但從純現金的角度來看，我們預計會繼續看到庫存像上個季度一樣從這裡開始下降。

Got you. And a question for Yuval. Of course, everyone is trying to better understand how your key customers in the semi are coming back, and you have the questions about Q1, but I'm going to rephrase the question a different way. Do you think your customers are going to be focusing on managing debt inventory and they're going to wait and gain confidence in the rebound? Or are they going to sell inventory because they feel so good in their core business? And even if their business is not going to pick up until the second half, they're going to step over and build inventory as they gauge pickup in shipment? In other words, how do you see your customers' inventory management, because they all sounded very constructive and confident that there's going to be a rebound in shipment driven by memory and logic. And I don't get that confidence from you.

明白了還有一個問題要問 Yuval。當然，每個人都在努力更好地了解你的主要客戶是如何回來的，你有關於第一季度的問題，但我會用不同的方式重新表述這個問題。您是否認為您的客戶將專注於管理債務庫存並且他們將等待並獲得對反彈的信心？還是因為他們對自己的核心業務感覺良好而打算出售存貨？即使他們的業務要到下半年才會好轉，他們會在衡量出貨量時增加庫存嗎？換句話說，你如何看待你的客戶的庫存管理，因為他們聽起來都非常有建設性和信心，認為在內存和邏輯的推動下出貨量會出現反彈。我沒有從你那裡得到那種信心。

So maybe -- I honestly cannot comment about our customers' inventory levels and how they manage our inventories. The one thing that we all need to understand, there is not just having inventory with machines, finished good in boxes; it's also a change in product mix and customer mix that happened over the last 2 quarters. So the way that they dispose of their equipment depends on which end customers is investing when, and which IC technology is being invested upon a -- memory and logic, DRAM or NAND. So that mix affect the way that they manage their finished good inventory. So from our perspective, you all need to understand that because most customers have just-in-time relationship with us, they pull our products when they need our products to finish the building of their finished good machines.

所以也許——老實說，我無法評論我們客戶的庫存水平以及他們如何管理我們的庫存。我們都需要了解的一件事是，不僅有機器庫存，成品盒裝；這也是過去兩個季度發生的產品組合和客戶組合的變化。因此，他們處理設備的方式取決於哪些最終客戶在何時投資，以及在內存和邏輯、DRAM 或 NAND 上投資哪種 IC 技術。因此，這種組合會影響他們管理成品庫存的方式。所以從我們的角度來看，你們都需要明白，因為大多數客戶與我們有即時關係，當他們需要我們的產品來完成他們成品機器的建造時，他們會拉動我們的產品。

So the inventory that they have right now is an inventory not of AE raw, but of their own finished good machines that could be on the floor or in boxes, right? And if they ship those products out to the market, they will basically pull products from our inventory so -- and that's why I said we lag a little bit behind them, and until they finish addressing the mix change that they have, and they finish with the inventory per application that they have, we will basically lag behind.

所以他們現在擁有的庫存不是 AE 原始庫存，而是他們自己的成品機器的庫存，這些機器可能在地板上或盒子裡，對吧？如果他們將這些產品運送到市場，他們基本上會從我們的庫存中提取產品 - 這就是為什麼我說我們有點落後於他們，直到他們完成解決他們所擁有的組合變化，然後他們完成憑藉他們擁有的每個應用程序的庫存，我們基本上會落後。

It's actually very helpful. Just one follow-up to that. How are you thinking about your overall overhead? I'm assuming that there's is some commonality in your overhead between semiconductor and industrial. But as you think about the leverage following -- operating leverage following these recent acquisitions, is there a minimum threshold in semiconductor revenue that you're focusing on beyond which you would take a more drastic action?

這實際上非常有幫助。只是一個後續行動。您如何考慮您的總體管理費用？我假設半導體和工業之間的開銷存在一些共性。但是，當您考慮以下槓桿作用時——最近這些收購後的經營槓桿作用，您關注的半導體收入是否存在最低門檻，超過該門檻您將採取更激烈的行動？

Yes, it's a good question, Mehdi. As you recall, we did announce some restructuring costs. That goes largely to continuing to consolidate the acquisitions we've made and improve efficiencies. And I'll say that manufacturing that overhead is common to both our industrial and our semiconductor businesses. And as you know, many of the, I'll say, semiconductor-like products actually sell into industrial applications for thin film, so there's a lot of overlap and there's a lot of commonality. And we think of it as kind of as one business serving these different markets. So we are taking actions to reduce near-term cost, but remember, we, in our prepared remarks, said although it's hard to predict exactly the quarter -- and I know there's been a lot of questions about that -- we continue to feel confident that this is a temporary pause in semiconductor investments, and have a lot of confidence in the underlying drivers in the market.

是的，這是個好問題，邁赫迪。您還記得，我們確實公佈了一些重組費用。這主要是為了繼續鞏固我們已經進行的收購併提高效率。我要說的是，製造這種開銷對於我們的工業和半導體業務來說是很常見的。正如你所知，我要說的是，許多類似半導體的產品實際上是在薄膜的工業應用中銷售的，因此有很多重疊，也有很多共性。我們將其視為服務於這些不同市場的一項業務。因此，我們正在採取行動降低近期成本，但請記住，我們在準備好的發言中表示，儘管很難準確預測該季度——而且我知道對此有很多疑問——我們仍然覺得相信這是半導體投資的暫時停頓，並對市場的潛在驅動因素充滿信心。

And as a result of that, we're going to continue to invest in the strategic elements of our semi business because we believe it will, in fact, bounce around these levels, but then it will grow. And as it begins to grow, we're going to see significant leverage in our business. In fact, we've historically seen 40% to 50% leverage as sales have grown. We're going to see that same leverage once we work our way through this temporary pause in semi, and we'll see a lot of acceleration on EPS if that occurs.

因此，我們將繼續投資於我們半導體業務的戰略要素，因為我們相信它實際上會在這些水平附近反彈，但隨後會增長。隨著它開始增長，我們將在我們的業務中看到巨大的影響力。事實上，隨著銷售額的增長，我們歷來看到 40% 到 50% 的槓桿率。一旦我們努力度過半決賽的暫時停頓，我們將看到同樣的槓桿作用，如果發生這種情況，我們將看到 EPS 的大幅加速。

If I may add to that, maybe in spite of this temporary pause in semi, we need to all remember that 2018 is a growth year for Advanced Energy, and we expect 2019 to be a growth year for Advanced Energy in spite of that temporary pause in semi.

如果我可以補充一點，也許儘管 semi 暫時停頓，但我們都需要記住 2018 年是 Advanced Energy 的增長年，儘管暫時停頓，我們預計 2019 年將是 Advanced Energy 的增長年在半。

Our next question comes from Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

我們的下一個問題來自 Tom Diffely 和 D.A.戴維森。

Maybe just one more on the inventory side. Is there any way to quantify what's the impact of the finished goods just for this versus the end market demand for you, or do not have that level of visibility?

也許只是庫存方面的一個。有什麼方法可以量化成品對您的影響與終端市場需求的影響，或者沒有那種可見度？

We don't have that level of visibility. And also, Tom, we cannot even analyze our customers' business for you. So it's a transition that happens in the market. It involves demand changes, especially in mix and also shipping from finished good inventories of our customers that already happened. And the question is when they will resume the ramp of demand for our products is just a question of timing.

我們沒有那樣的知名度。而且，湯姆，我們甚至無法為您分析客戶的業務。所以這是市場上發生的轉變。它涉及需求變化，尤其是混合需求變化，以及從我們已經發生的客戶成品庫存中發貨。問題是他們什麼時候會恢復對我們產品的需求增長只是時間問題。

Yes, and there's no reason to believe that when that ramp starts again, the inverse happens where they have to kind of build finished goods along the way, and you would grow faster than them during that period of time?

是的，沒有理由相信當那個斜坡再次開始時，相反的情況會發生，他們必須一路製造成品，而在那段時間裡你會比他們增長得更快？

Well, it's a good question. And because of the JIT structure of the relationship we have with them, we have the flexibility and the agility to respond to demand changes, both in volume and mix very quickly.

嗯，這是個好問題。由於我們與他們之間的關係採用 JIT 結構，我們可以非常靈活和敏捷地響應需求變化，無論是在數量上還是在組合上都非常快。

Yes, okay. And this is different than what we saw a couple of cycles ago where you would actually are being -- hold inventory and not just the time as just they would hold inventory. So it's a less of an impact this time around than it was, say, 2 cycles ago?

是的，好的。這與我們在幾個週期前看到的實際情況不同——持有庫存，而不僅僅是他們持有庫存的時間。所以這次的影響比 2 個週期前要小？

I agree with that, yes.

我同意這一點，是的。

Okay. And then the main question though is on the service side. What is the typical warranty of your products, and when does it come off warranty and when does it become eligible for service? I'm just curious about the large slug of business (inaudible) a couple of years.

好的。然後主要問題是在服務方面。您產品的典型保修是什麼，什麼時候保修結束，什麼時候有資格享受服務？我只是對幾年來的大量業務（聽不清）感到好奇。

Yes, Tom, it really depends on the product and on the relationship, contractual relationship, we have with customers. So I would say, it's between 1 to 3 years, depends on --

是的，湯姆，這真的取決於產品以及我們與客戶的關係、合同關係。所以我會說，它在 1 到 3 年之間，取決於——

We still --

我們仍然 -

Go ahead.

前進。

So we still haven't seen the kind of the big slug of service increase from what's been the big business the last couple of years?

所以我們還沒有看到過去幾年的大企業帶來的那種大的服務增長？

You're spot on. Because we expect to see -- as you know that over the last 2 or 3 years, the installed base grew significantly. And we expect to see the service revenue benefit from that incremental increase in the installed base to be realized within the next few quarters.

你是正確的。因為我們希望看到 - 如您所知，在過去的 2 或 3 年中，安裝基數顯著增長。我們預計服務收入將從未來幾個季度內實現的安裝基數增量中受益。

Our next question comes from Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James.

我們的下一個問題來自 Pavel Molchanov 和 Raymond James。

The last time you had a down quarter in semi cap was back in Q4 of 2015. And at the time, it was a V-shaped recovery right afterwards. When you compare kind of current industry dynamics versus 3 years ago, just thematically, can you compare and contrast how they're similar and how they're different?

上一次半市值下跌的季度是在 2015 年第四季度。當時，這是一個 V 型複蘇。當您將當前行業動態與 3 年前進行比較時，僅在主題上，您能否比較和對比它們的相似之處和不同之處？

Well, Pavel, as we said during the last earnings call, we do not expect the recovery to be a V-shape this time. We said it'll take longer; it could be more moderate. In a -- the fact is it's really a different industry compared to the last cycle. In terms of consolidation of the industry, the number the key players, the key products, the migration to 3D technology, it's a different industry, right? So it's hard to compare, and as we said earlier, we do not expect to see a V-shaped recovery. Just a reminder, back in 2016, wafer fab equipment business industry was $35 billion. And right now, we're talking about a much bigger industry.

好吧，帕維爾，正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所說的那樣，我們預計這次復蘇不會呈 V 形。我們說這需要更長的時間；它可能更溫和。在一個 - 事實上，與上一個週期相比，它確實是一個不同的行業。就行業整合、關鍵參與者的數量、關鍵產品、向 3D 技術的遷移而言，這是一個不同的行業，對吧？所以很難比較，正如我們之前所說，我們預計不會出現 V 型複蘇。提醒一下，早在 2016 年，晶圓廠設備業務就達到了 350 億美元。而現在，我們正在談論一個更大的行業。

Right. You talked about potentially levering up if you see the right acquisition target. Given that your stock is multiyear lows at this point, would you also be willing to lever up to meaningfully accelerate share repurchases?

正確的。如果你看到正確的收購目標，你談到了可能的槓桿作用。鑑於您的股票此時處於多年低點，您是否也願意加槓桿以有意義地加速股票回購？

Yes, it's a good question, Mehdi (sic). As you know --

是的，這是個好問題，Mehdi（原文如此）。如你所知 -

Pavel.

帕維爾。

Oh, I'm sorry, Pavel. As you know, our primary allocation of capital is to grow the company. We've said 70% roughly as a guideline is targeted to grow the company primarily through acquisition. And so we continue to believe that is the best path to create long-term value for our shareholders. We've also been active on our share repurchase program and you can see that in the numbers. And so it is a balance, but our view is we would lever the company to grow the company, not necessarily to change the capital structure at this point.

哦，對不起，帕維爾。如您所知，我們的主要資本分配是為了發展公司。我們粗略地說，70% 的指導方針是主要通過收購來發展公司。因此，我們仍然相信這是為股東創造長期價值的最佳途徑。我們也一直積極參與我們的股票回購計劃，您可以在數字中看到這一點。所以這是一種平衡，但我們的觀點是，我們將利用公司來發展公司，而不一定要在此時改變資本結構。

Pavel, we continue to also [be flow] cash in investing in our future technology and product portfolio. We invested capital in new labs, high-technology labs, in the Bay Area. We expanded our laboratory footprint around the world. We are investing in core technologies, both organically and inorganically, and we believe some of those unique design wins in technology will accelerate the growth in 2019.

帕維爾，我們也將繼續 [be flow] 現金投資於我們未來的技術和產品組合。我們投資了灣區的新實驗室、高科技實驗室。我們擴大了我們在世界各地的實驗室足跡。我們正在有機和無機地投資於核心技術，我們相信其中一些獨特的技術設計勝利將加速 2019 年的增長。

Our next question comes from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital 的 Weston Twigg。

I'm sorry about that earlier. So one question I have is just on the industrial side, that sounds pretty good if you're talking down just seasonally in Q4. I'm wondering if heading into 2019 at all, you're seeing any increasing risk related to, say, weakening demand in China or autos, or any of the other broader macro indicators that we're seeing in related markets?

我很抱歉之前的事。所以我有一個問題只是在工業方面，如果你只是在第四季度季節性地談論，那聽起來不錯。我想知道是否進入 2019 年，您是否看到與中國或汽車需求疲軟或我們在相關市場上看到的任何其他更廣泛的宏觀指標相關的風險增加？

We don't see that, Wes. In fact, we have some new design wins, both in what we call hard coating applications and also medical and life science applications that we believe will be sustainable and will not be affected by temporary either geopolitical or GDP-related fluctuations. As we said earlier, our Q4 decline in the industrial business is seasonal just like the previous 3 years. The good news is that every Q4 is higher than the previous Q4. So we continue to grow our industrial business with that seasonal decline in the fourth quarter of every year. And we basically stand behind our goal to continue to grow this business at mid-teens CAGR and we haven't changed that target.

我們沒有看到，韋斯。事實上，我們在我們所謂的硬塗層應用以及醫療和生命科學應用方面取得了一些新的設計勝利，我們認為這些應用將是可持續的，不會受到暫時的地緣政治或 GDP 相關波動的影響。正如我們之前所說，我們第四季度工業業務的下滑與前 3 年一樣是季節性的。好消息是，每一個 Q4 都高於之前的 Q4。因此，隨著每年第四季度的季節性下降，我們繼續發展我們的工業業務。我們基本上支持我們的目標，即以十幾歲的複合年增長率繼續發展這項業務，我們沒有改變這個目標。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just I guess related, you talked about the fact that you're confident this is a temporary pause in the semi side of your business. Can you give us a feeling of, particularly with the fabs, what kind of customer conversations you're having? Maybe I don't know how much conversation you have with fab owners, but any commentary that would help us with the conviction that this is a temporary pause?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我猜相關的是，你談到了一個事實，即你有信心這是你業務半邊的暫時停頓。您能否給我們一種感覺，尤其是與晶圓廠，您正在進行什麼樣的客戶對話？也許我不知道您與晶圓廠所有者進行了多少交談，但是有任何評論可以幫助我們確信這是暫時的暫停嗎？

Well, I'll say a few things. Number one, there are many assets are being built around the world that are basically waiting to be equipped with equipment. We have recent information about Intel is going to start the high volume manufacturing of the 10-nanometer devices, which is new news and good news. We look at other areas that we believe there is a pending investment in capacity, right? So we strongly believe that the long-term underlying demand drivers for the business are intact and strong. For that reason, we believe, as we talk to our customers and also forecasters and end users, that we're talking about a temporary digestion.

嗯，我說幾句。第一，世界各地正在建設的許多資產基本上都在等待配備設備。我們最近有消息稱英特爾將開始大規模生產 10 納米設備，這是一個新消息，也是一個好消息。我們看看我們認為有待處理的容量投資的其他領域，對嗎？因此，我們堅信該業務的長期潛在需求驅動因素完好無損且強勁。出於這個原因，我們相信，當我們與客戶以及預測人員和最終用戶交談時，我們正在談論暫時的消化。

Going back to what we said earlier, just a few quarters ago, everybody celebrated the semi WFE business being $35 billion. Now we're in a new normal, in the new normal, as it were, of $45 million to $50 million. We are operating in a growing industry and we expect the long-term viability and growth of this industry to be intact.

回到我們之前所說的，就在幾個季度前，每個人都在慶祝 semi WFE 業務達到 350 億美元。現在我們處於新常態，新常態，可以說是 4500 萬到 5000 萬美元。我們在一個不斷發展的行業中運營，我們預計該行業的長期生存能力和增長將完好無損。

I'm showing no further questions in queue at this time. I'd like to turn the call back to Mr. Wasserman for closing remarks.

我現在不會在隊列中顯示更多問題。我想將電話轉回 Wasserman 先生，請他作結束語。

Thanks, everybody, for joining us today; obviously, a challenging time for the semi industry. We are very excited about the future. We continue to drive design wins. We have new technologies and products in the pipeline that will spur growth and leadership, and we're committed to continue to invest in those strategic areas. We're looking forward to seeing many of you in the next quarter. Thank you.

謝謝大家今天加入我們；顯然，對於半導體行業來說，這是一個充滿挑戰的時期。我們對未來感到非常興奮。我們繼續推動設計勝利。我們正在開發新技術和產品，以刺激增長和領導力，我們致力於繼續投資於這些戰略領域。我們期待在下個季度見到你們中的許多人。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes the program and you may now disconnect. Everyone have a great day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程序到此結束，您現在可以斷開連接了。每個人都有美好的一天。