Advanced Energy Industries Inc (AEIS) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Greetings. Welcome to Advanced Energy's Third Quarter 2021 Conference Call. (Operator Instructions)

問候。歡迎來到 Advanced Energy 2021 年第三季度電話會議。 （操作員說明）

Please note, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Edwin Mok, Vice President of Strategic Marketing and Investor Relations. You may now begin, sir.

請注意，此會議正在錄製中。現在，我將把會議轉交給戰略營銷和投資者關係副總裁 Edwin Mok 先生。您現在可以開始了，先生。

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to Advanced Energy's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Steve Kelley, our President and CEO; and Paul Oldham, our Executive Vice President and CFO. If you have not seen our earnings press release, you can find it on our website at ir.advancedenergy.com. There you will find the third quarter slide presentation.

謝謝你，運營商。大家下午好。歡迎來到 Advanced Energy 2021 年第三季度收益電話會議。今天和我在一起的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Steve Kelley；和我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Paul Oldham。如果您還沒有看到我們的收益新聞稿，您可以在我們的網站 ir.advancedenergy.com 上找到它。您會在那裡找到第三季度的幻燈片演示。

Before I begin, I'd like to mention that we will be participating at several investor conferences in the coming months. Let me remind you that today's conference call contains forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially and are not guarantees of future performance. Information concerning these risks can be found in our SEC filings. All forward-looking statements are based on management's estimates as of today, November 8, 2021, and the company assumes no obligations to update them. Medium- and long-term targets present today should not be interpreted as guidance.

在開始之前，我想提一下，我們將在未來幾個月內參加幾個投資者會議。讓我提醒您，今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受風險和不確定性的影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異，並且不是對未來業績的保證。有關這些風險的信息可以在我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中找到。所有前瞻性陳述均基於管理層截至 2021 年 11 月 8 日的估計，公司不承擔更新這些陳述的義務。今天提出的中期和長期目標不應被解釋為指導。

On today's call, our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. Excluded from non-GAAP results are amortization, stock compensation, integration and transition costs, unrealized foreign exchange gains or losses and restructuring items. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP measures can be found in today's press release.

在今天的電話會議上，除非另有說明，否則我們的財務業績將在非 GAAP 財務基礎上公佈。非 GAAP 結果不包括攤銷、股票補償、整合和過渡成本、未實現的外匯損益和重組項目。可以在今天的新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 措施之間的詳細對賬。

With that, let me pass the call to our President and CEO, Steve Kelley.

有了這個，讓我把電話轉給我們的總裁兼首席執行官史蒂夫凱利。

Thank you, Edwin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thanks for joining the call. In the third quarter, we delivered results above the midpoint of our guidance. Stronger factory output pushed our revenue, gross margin and earnings per share to the upper part of our guidance range. Demand remains extremely robust across all of our target markets. In addition, our new products continued to be well received by customers, who depend on AE's innovative technologies to achieve their efficiency, power density and precision power goals.

謝謝你，埃德溫。大家下午好，感謝您加入電話會議。在第三季度，我們交付的結果高於我們指導的中點。強勁的工廠產出將我們的收入、毛利率和每股收益推高至我們指導範圍的上半部分。我們所有目標市場的需求仍然非常強勁。此外，我們的新產品繼續受到客戶的歡迎，他們依靠 AE 的創新技術來實現他們的效率、功率密度和精確功率目標。

We remain focused on the key factors driving our long-term success: industry-leading innovation; strong customer relationships; outstanding quality; a strong leadership team; and a culture focused on results and speed.

我們仍然專注於推動我們取得長期成功的關鍵因素：行業領先的創新；強大的客戶關係；卓越的品質；強大的領導團隊；以及注重結果和速度的文化。

Over the course of the year, we have taken substantial steps to increase the capabilities of the Advanced Energy leadership team. Our latest addition to the team Eduardo Bernal joined the company in September as our EVP and COO. Eduardo has an impressive record of achievement in the semiconductor industry with specific expertise in operations and supply chain management. Before joining Advanced Energy, he led the global back-end manufacturing organization at NXP Semiconductors, and was able to drive significant performance improvements over a multiyear period. Eduardo will be based in Singapore and Malaysia, and we are delighted to have him on board.

在這一年中，我們採取了實質性步驟來提高 Advanced Energy 領導團隊的能力。我們團隊的最新成員 Eduardo Bernal 於 9 月加入公司，擔任我們的執行副總裁兼首席運營官。 Eduardo 在半導體行業取得了令人矚目的成就，在運營和供應鏈管理方面擁有專業知識。在加入 Advanced Energy 之前，他領導了 NXP Semiconductors 的全球後端製造組織，並能夠在多年的時間裡推動顯著的性能改進。 Eduardo 將常駐新加坡和馬來西亞，我們很高興他加入。

Now I'd like to touch on our supply chain challenges, specifically shortages of key ICs. These shortages continue to constrain shipments and limit our financial performance. We are working diligently and with a high sense of urgency to mitigate the shortages, expediting suppliers, qualifying replacement parts and where necessary, redesigning boards to eliminate problematic ICs. Many of our customers are playing an important role in the mitigation efforts by expediting qualifications of new parts and by joining discussions with our key suppliers.

現在我想談談我們的供應鏈挑戰，特別是關鍵 IC 的短缺。這些短缺繼續限制出貨量並限制我們的財務業績。我們正以高度的緊迫感努力工作，以緩解短缺、加快供應商、合格的更換部件，並在必要時重新設計電路板以消除有問題的 IC。我們的許多客戶通過加快新零件的鑑定和加入與我們的主要供應商的討論，在緩解工作中發揮著重要作用。

We are seeing some incremental progress on the parts front, as reflected in our third quarter performance. However, the overall supply environment remains dynamic. With little slack in the supply chain, the effects of manufacturing or shipping disruptions quickly ripple through to the end customer. Given the dynamic nature of the supply chain issues, we are taking a relatively conservative approach to our financial forecast. However, given the amount of pent-up demand for our products, as indicated by our record backlog, we see considerable revenue and profit upside tied to the successful mitigation of our supply constraints.

正如我們第三季度的業績所反映的那樣，我們在零件方面看到了一些漸進的進展。然而，整體供應環境仍然充滿活力。由於供應鏈幾乎沒有鬆弛，製造或運輸中斷的影響會迅速波及最終客戶。鑑於供應鏈問題的動態性質，我們對財務預測採取相對保守的方法。然而，鑑於我們產品的被壓抑需求量，正如我們創紀錄的積壓訂單所表明的那樣，我們認為成功緩解供應限制會帶來可觀的收入和利潤增長。

Despite the supply chain issues, we have maintained a full factory workforce, in order to maximize our surge capacity. As an additional measure, we plan to keep our Shenzhen factory open into the second quarter of 2022.

儘管存在供應鏈問題，我們仍保留了完整的工廠員工隊伍，以最大限度地提高我們的激增能力。作為一項額外措施，我們計劃在 2022 年第二季度繼續運營我們的深圳工廠。

Now I'd like to provide more color on each of our target markets. As I mentioned earlier, demand is very robust across all of our markets. The macro trends are solid, and customers are designing in our new products. In the Semiconductor Equipment space, our customers are forecasting strong unit growth in 2022 across a wide range of technologies. We are well positioned to benefit from this growth given our strong position in both current generation and next-generation conductor etch equipment.

現在我想為我們的每個目標市場提供更多顏色。正如我之前提到的，我們所有市場的需求都非常強勁。宏觀趨勢穩固，客戶正在設計我們的新產品。在半導體設備領域，我們的客戶預測 2022 年各種技術的單位增長強勁。鑑於我們在當前一代和下一代導體蝕刻設備方面的強勢地位，我們有能力從這一增長中受益。

In addition, we expect to gain share in the coming years in plasma power applications, particularly in areas where we currently have a minor presence, such as dielectric etch and remote plasma source. Our new eVoS and MAXstream products for those applications are being evaluated and qualified by multiple customers, and are expected to go into mass production in the coming years. In the third quarter, we secured several strategic wins at Korean and Chinese OEM customers. We also won an important remote plasma source design.

此外，我們預計在未來幾年將在等離子電源應用領域獲得份額，特別是在我們目前業務較少的領域，例如電介質蝕刻和遠程等離子源。我們針對這些應用的新 eVoS 和 MAXstream 產品正在接受多家客戶的評估和認證，預計將在未來幾年投入量產。第三季度，我們在韓國和中國的 OEM 客戶中取得了多項戰略勝利。我們還贏得了一項重要的遠程等離子源設計。

In Medical, we secured several wins in life science and therapeutic applications, and a strategic win in ultrasound. In industrial, we secured a high-profile win in the thin film area and received a large order for an indoor farming project. We also won several proprietary designs in power control and thermal sensing applications.

在醫療領域，我們在生命科學和治療應用領域取得了多項勝利，並在超聲領域取得了戰略性勝利。工業方面，我們高調拿下薄膜領域，獲得室內養殖項目大單。我們還贏得了電源控制和熱傳感應用方面的多項專有設計。

In Data Center Computing, Telecom & Networking, we continue to see strong demand as multiyear digital transformation trends drive sustained infrastructure investments. In the third quarter, we secured a next-generation hyperscale design with a solution featuring power density roughly double that of current generation products. We also won high-value designs in telco edge, storage and network routing applications.

在數據中心計算、電信和網絡領域，我們繼續看到強勁的需求，因為多年的數字化轉型趨勢推動了持續的基礎設施投資。在第三季度，我們獲得了下一代超大規模設計，其解決方案的功率密度大約是當前一代產品的兩倍。我們還贏得了電信邊緣、存儲和網絡路由應用方面的高價值設計。

Before closing, I'd like to summarize our key messages. First, demand for our products is robust amid broad customer acceptance of our new products and technologies. Second, we are working diligently to mitigate the impact of supply chain constraints. Third, we expect pent-up demand for our products to drive several quarters of revenue upside above current run rate as supply chain issues are successfully addressed. And finally, we are positioning the company for sustained revenue growth with a strong lineup of differentiated products, targeting the right markets.

在結束之前，我想總結一下我們的關鍵信息。首先，在客戶廣泛接受我們的新產品和技術的情況下，對我們產品的需求強勁。其次，我們正在努力減輕供應鏈約束的影響。第三，隨著供應鏈問題的成功解決，我們預計對我們產品的被壓抑需求將推動幾個季度的收入高於當前運行率。最後，我們通過針對正確市場的強大差異化產品陣容，將公司定位為持續的收入增長。

Paul will now review our financial results and provide detailed guidance.

保羅現在將審查我們的財務業績並提供詳細的指導。

Thank you, Steve, and good afternoon, everyone. In the third quarter, we delivered revenue and earnings above the midpoint of our guidance. Total revenue of $346 million declined 4% sequentially as our ability to ship products was limited by component supply and to a lesser extent, COVID restrictions in Malaysia. Relative to our guidance, gross margins were at the high end, resulting in earnings of $0.89 per share.

謝謝史蒂夫，大家下午好。在第三季度，我們的收入和收益高於我們指導的中點。總收入為 3.46 億美元，環比下降 4%，因為我們的產品運輸能力受到組件供應的限制，在較小程度上受到馬來西亞 COVID 限制的限制。相對於我們的指引，毛利率處於高端，每股收益為 0.89 美元。

Customer demand remains high, and we entered Q3 with record backlog of over $770 million. The vast majority of this backlog is for proprietary products, and roughly 2/3 is for orders that are shippable as soon as we can build them, highlighting the strong demand profile. We believe this high level of shippable backlog represents meaningful upside to our current revenue levels for an extended period of time as the supply situation improves.

客戶需求仍然很高，我們進入第三季度時積壓訂單超過 7.7 億美元。這些積壓訂單中的絕大部分是專有產品，大約 2/3 是我們可以製造後立即發貨的訂單，這凸顯了強勁的需求狀況。我們認為，隨著供應情況的改善，這種高水平的可發貨積壓代表了我們當前收入水平在較長時間內的有意義的上升空間。

In the near term, the availability and predictability of certain components, primarily critical ICs remains challenging, and we expect supply constraints to continue to gate revenue. In addition, as we projected, our gross margins are being impacted by higher input costs in the form of premium buys, expedite fees, some price increases and underutilization of our factories. The majority of these costs are transitory and will naturally improve over time. But we are also taking proactive actions to mitigate the headwinds on both availability and cost, which we expect to begin yielding results in Q4 and increase over time. These include working with our customers on cost recovery and pricing, establishing strategic supply agreements with our suppliers and pursuing selective redesigns.

在短期內，某些組件（主要是關鍵 IC）的可用性和可預測性仍然具有挑戰性，我們預計供應限制將繼續影響收入。此外，正如我們預測的那樣，我們的毛利率受到更高投入成本的影響，這些成本包括溢價購買、加速費用、一些價格上漲和我們工廠的利用率不足。這些成本中的大部分是暫時的，隨著時間的推移自然會有所改善。但我們也在採取積極行動來減輕可用性和成本方面的不利因素，我們預計這將在第四季度開始產生結果並隨著時間的推移而增加。其中包括與我們的客戶就成本回收和定價進行合作，與我們的供應商建立戰略供應協議以及進行有選擇的重新設計。

During this time, we are retaining our factory capacity to be able to deliver higher revenue as parts become available and expect to maintain our broader infrastructure about flat, while reallocating resources to accelerate our most important programs. While we will see some inflationary pressure in spending, we believe this approach is a good balance between managing short-term challenges and funding an extended set of opportunities for upside and long-term growth. As revenues recover, we expect to see good operating leverage and continue to believe we have the building blocks in place to achieve our medium- and long-term goals.

在此期間，我們將保留我們的工廠產能，以便能夠在零件可用時提供更高的收入，並期望維持我們更廣泛的基礎設施基本持平，同時重新分配資源以加速我們最重要的項目。雖然我們會看到支出方面存在一些通脹壓力，但我們認為這種方法在管理短期挑戰和為一系列擴大的上行和長期增長機會提供資金之間取得了很好的平衡。隨著收入的恢復，我們預計會看到良好的經營槓桿，並繼續相信我們已經具備了實現中長期目標的基石。

Now let me go over our Q3 revenues by market. Semiconductor sales continued near record levels at $173 million, up from last year, but down slightly from last quarter. Demand remains strong. And with Malaysia now allowed to operate at full capacity and modest improvement in parts supply, we expect Q4 semiconductor sales to grow sequentially.

現在讓我按市場回顧一下我們第三季度的收入。半導體銷售額繼續接近創紀錄的水平，達到 1.73 億美元，高於去年，但略低於上一季度。需求依然強勁。隨著馬來西亞現在允許滿負荷運營並且零件供應適度改善，我們預計第四季度半導體銷售額將連續增長。

Revenue from our Industrial and Medical markets fell 3% from Q2 to $81 million. However, customer demand was broad-based, and our backlog increased by almost 50% sequentially. We saw revenue strength in thin film coatings, medical and thermal sensing where our teams were able to overcome some of the parts shortages. Data Center Computing revenue was $62 million and Telecom & Network revenue was $30 million, both down from last quarter due to supply constraints, which have been particularly acute for ICs used in these markets. Our order book in these 2 markets continues to increase.

我們的工業和醫療市場收入較第二季度下降 3% 至 8100 萬美元。然而，客戶需求廣泛，我們的積壓訂單環比增加了近 50%。我們在薄膜塗層、醫療和熱傳感領域看到了收入增長，我們的團隊在這些領域能夠克服一些零件短缺問題。數據中心計算收入為 6200 萬美元，電信和網絡收入為 3000 萬美元，均低於上一季度，原因是供應限制，這對於這些市場中使用的 IC 來說尤為嚴重。我們在這兩個市場的訂單繼續增加。

Non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter was 36.1%. The sequential decline was primarily due to increased input costs and factory underutilization. Year-over-year, these costs are having an approximate 350 basis point impact to gross margins. While we are making progress on mitigating actions and cost recovery, we expect margins to continue around these levels for another quarter or so as the higher cost materials roll through inventory and impact our cost of goods sold.

本季度非美國通用會計準則毛利率為 36.1%。環比下降主要是由於投入成本增加和工廠利用率不足。與去年同期相比，這些成本對毛利率產生了大約 350 個基點的影響。雖然我們在緩解措施和成本回收方面取得了進展，但我們預計利潤率將在另一個季度左右繼續保持在這些水平附近，因為成本較高的材料會通過庫存滾動並影響我們的銷售成本。

In addition, as Steve mentioned, we now plan to extend the operation of our Shenzhen factory through the end of Q2, which will impact gross margins in the near term, but provide additional shipment flexibility. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $83.6 million, up about $1 million from last quarter. The sequential increase was mostly due to a full quarter of expenses from TEGAM, which we acquired in June. Operating margin for the quarter was 11.9%. Other expense was $1.7 million including $1.3 million of interest expense. We expect other expense to be in the $2 million range going forward, including the interest cost on our additional debt.

此外，正如史蒂夫所提到的，我們現在計劃將深圳工廠的運營延長至第二季度末，這將在短期內影響毛利率，但會提供額外的裝運靈活性。非 GAAP 運營費用為 8360 萬美元，比上一季度增加約 100 萬美元。環比增長主要是由於我們在 6 月份收購的 TEGAM 的整個季度支出。本季度的營業利潤率為 11.9%。其他費用為 170 萬美元，包括 130 萬美元的利息費用。我們預計未來其他費用將在 200 萬美元左右，包括我們額外債務的利息成本。

Our non-GAAP tax expense was $5.6 million or 14%, which was largely in line with our target of approximately 15%, plus or minus. Earnings for the quarter were $0.89 per share compared to $1.25 last quarter.

我們的非 GAAP 稅收費用為 560 萬美元或 14%，這在很大程度上符合我們大約 15% 的增減目標。本季度每股收益為 0.89 美元，而上一季度為 1.25 美元。

Turning now to the balance sheet. We ended the third quarter with total cash of $550 million and net cash of $153 million. Operating cash flow was $18 million and CapEx was $8.5 million. During the quarter, we repurchased $52.6 million of common stock at $86.93 per share, taking advantage of market volatility to return cash to shareholders. We also paid $3.9 million in dividends.

現在轉向資產負債表。第三季度結束時，我們的現金總額為 5.5 億美元，淨現金為 1.53 億美元。經營現金流為 1800 萬美元，資本支出為 850 萬美元。本季度，我們以每股 86.93 美元的價格回購了 5260 萬美元的普通股，利用市場波動向股東返還現金。我們還支付了 390 萬美元的股息。

Earlier in the quarter, we amended our existing credit agreement to increase our term loan by $85 million to $400 million, increased our undrawn revolving line of credit to $200 million and extended the remaining term to 5 years. With an attractive rate of LIBOR plus 75 basis points, this refinancing provides us with additional financial flexibility for inorganic growth, share repurchase and other corporate needs.

本季度早些時候，我們修改了現有的信貸協議，將定期貸款增加 8500 萬美元至 4 億美元，將未提取的循環信貸額度增加至 2 億美元，並將剩餘期限延長至 5 年。憑藉極具吸引力的倫敦銀行同業拆借利率加 75 個基點，此次再融資為我們提供了額外的財務靈活性，以滿足無機增長、股票回購和其他企業需求。

In Q3, our days of net working capital increased to 117 days. Inventory increased by $45 million and turns were 2.8x as we continue to acquire raw material to support future shipments. We believe this inventory is well matched to customer demand. And although it may take a few quarters, we expect turns to rebound as critical part shortages abate. Days payable fell to 76 days based on timing of payments. On the other hand, DSO improved to 57 days on strong collections.

在第三季度，我們的淨營運資金天數增加到 117 天。由於我們繼續採購原材料以支持未來的發貨，庫存增加了 4500 萬美元，周轉率增加了 2.8 倍。我們相信該庫存非常符合客戶需求。儘管這可能需要幾個季度的時間，但我們預計隨著關鍵部件短缺的減少，輪流會出現反彈。根據付款時間，應付天數降至 76 天。另一方面，DSO 在大量收款時縮短至 57 天。

Now let me turn to guidance. Market demand and our order book continued to be extremely strong. However, we expect the supply environment to remain challenging in the near term. As a result, we expect Q4 revenues to be approximately $355 million, plus or minus $20 million. Our Q4 guidance assumes semi revenue will grow sequentially. We expect Q4 gross margin to be similar to Q3 based on higher material costs offset by incremental benefits of mitigating actions.

現在讓我轉向指導。市場需求和我們的訂單繼續非常強勁。然而，我們預計供應環境在短期內仍將充滿挑戰。因此，我們預計第四季度收入約為 3.55 億美元，上下浮動 2000 萬美元。我們的第四季度指導假設半收入將連續增長。我們預計第四季度的毛利率將與第三季度相似，這是因為較高的材料成本被緩解措施的增量收益所抵消。

Operating expenses should be flat to up slightly largely due to the cost of inflation across a variety of areas. As a result, we expect Q4 non-GAAP earnings per share to be $0.92 plus or minus $0.25 based on a share count of approximately 38.2 million shares.

由於各個領域的通貨膨脹成本，運營支出應該持平或略有上升。因此，我們預計第四季度非 GAAP 每股收益為 0.92 美元加上或減去 0.25 美元，基於大約 3820 萬股的股票數量。

We are taking a prudent approach for the next couple of quarters, assuming that the current supply environment will continue to limit revenue at around current levels in the near term. However, we are confident that our mitigating actions will yield incremental benefits in the coming quarters. With our large shippable backlog, we expect to see revenue upside of up to $50 million per quarter over our current run rate as supply normalizes.

假設當前的供應環境將在短期內繼續將收入限制在當前水平附近，我們將在接下來的幾個季度採取謹慎的做法。但是，我們相信我們的緩解措施將在未來幾個季度產生增量收益。由於我們大量的可交付積壓訂單，隨著供應正常化，我們預計每季度的收入將比我們目前的運行率高出 5000 萬美元。

Looking forward, we are more excited than ever about our expanding set of new opportunities, and we'll continue to invest in R&D to accelerate our growth. As we take mitigating actions to manage component availability and cost, continue to optimize our portfolio and rationalize our factory footprint, we expect to achieve gross margins at or above our long-term goal of 41%. We remain focused on executing our strategy and are confident in our ability to reach our long-term revenue and earnings goals.

展望未來，我們比以往任何時候都對我們不斷擴大的新機遇感到更加興奮，我們將繼續投資於研發以加速我們的增長。隨著我們採取緩解措施來管理組件可用性和成本，繼續優化我們的產品組合併合理化我們的工廠佈局，我們預計毛利率將達到或超過我們 41% 的長期目標。我們仍然專注於執行我們的戰略，並對我們實現長期收入和盈利目標的能力充滿信心。

With that, let's take your questions. Operator?

有了這個，讓我們回答你的問題。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Tom Diffely 和 D.A.戴維森。

Paul, just following up on your last comment, you talked about revenue going up possibly $50 million a quarter once supply constraints ease. As you talk to your suppliers, when do you think that starts? I mean when do you see an end to the IC supply issues?

保羅，就您的最後一條評論而言，您談到一旦供應限制緩解，收入可能每季度增加 5000 萬美元。當您與供應商交談時，您認為什麼時候開始？我的意思是你什麼時候看到 IC 供應問題結束？

That's a good question, Tom. I think the challenge we have is in the near term, we continue to see these critical parts being in short supply. But we have a highly engaged -- work with our supply chain, also with our customers to try to accelerate and increase the amount of parts. And while it's hard to say exactly when that will turn around, we do believe that over the course of next year, it will improve. I think it's very possible by the time we get to the end of next year, we could be seeing revenues running at that level, current levels plus $50 million, which would be significant for us. We believe that could drive earnings power at that time as high or maybe higher than $6 a share annualized.

這是個好問題，湯姆。我認為我們面臨的挑戰是在短期內，我們繼續看到這些關鍵部件供不應求。但我們有一個高度參與——與我們的供應鏈合作，也與我們的客戶合作，試圖加速和增加零件的數量。雖然很難準確地說出這種情況何時會好轉，但我們相信在明年的過程中，情況會有所改善。我認為很有可能到明年年底，我們可能會看到收入達到這個水平，目前的水平再加上 5000 萬美元，這對我們來說意義重大。我們認為，這可能會推動當時的盈利能力高達或可能高於年化每股 6 美元。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then when you look at your 4 segments, could you kind of rank them in order of which ones are being the most affected by the supply constraints?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，當您查看 4 個細分市場時，您能否按照哪些細分市場受供應限制影響最大的順序對它們進行排序？

Yes. The ones that are being most affected are higher volume markets, particularly the embedded power markets. These particular products use a higher number of these critical ICs. There's also more standardization across those products. So if you're short on one of these critical parts that might, in fact, impact multiple families.

是的。受影響最大的是大容量市場，尤其是嵌入式電源市場。這些特定產品使用更多的關鍵 IC。這些產品也有更多的標準化。因此，如果您缺少這些關鍵部件之一，實際上可能會影響多個家庭。

Probably the second most impacted is our industrial and medical products. And then semi is actually performing quite well. As you see, we continue to operate near record levels. But certainly, there are critical shortages there as well, and we could be doing much better if we had the parts in place.

受影響第二大的可能是我們的工業和醫療產品。然後 semi 實際上表現得很好。如您所見，我們繼續以接近創紀錄的水平運營。但可以肯定的是，那裡也存在嚴重的短缺，如果我們有這些零件，我們可以做得更好。

Great. And then finally, when you look at the -- you talked about qualifying new parts to get around some of the IC shortages, how long does that process take?

偉大的。最後，當你看到 - 你談到了合格的新零件以解決一些 IC 短缺問題時，這個過程需要多長時間？

Yes, Tom, this is Steve Kelley. We started that process in earnest 3 to 4 months ago for a number of our products. Typically, that process is going to take around 9 to 12 months to do the redesign, to do the reliability testing, get the qualification from our customers. The good news for us is that our customers are highly motivated to qualify these new designs. So we're seeing a record turnaround time. So it's possible we can get the close done a bit quicker than we expect.

是的，湯姆，這是史蒂夫凱利。我們在 3 到 4 個月前針對我們的一些產品認真地開始了這個過程。通常，該過程需要大約 9 到 12 個月的時間來進行重新設計、進行可靠性測試、從我們的客戶那裡獲得資格。對我們來說，好消息是我們的客戶非常積極地對這些新設計進行鑑定。所以我們看到了創紀錄的周轉時間。因此，我們有可能比預期更快地完成交易。

The next question comes from the line of Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

下一個問題來自 Krish Sankar 與 Cowen and Company 的合作。

I have 2 of them too. First one, Paul, I just want to follow up. You said that the revenue upside of $50 million a quarter maybe happen later next year as supply normalizes. Around the same path, how long do you think the gross margin or this component cost increase going to be a drag on gross margins? Is it beyond 4Q into 1Q or beyond that too? And then I have a few other follow-ups.

我也有 2 個。第一個，保羅，我只想跟進。你說隨著供應正常化，明年晚些時候可能會出現每季度 5000 萬美元的收入增長。圍繞相同的路徑，您認為毛利率或這種組件成本增加將拖累毛利率多長時間？是超過 4Q 進入 1Q 還是超過 1Q？然後我還有一些其他的後續行動。

Yes, I said in our prepared remarks that we thought this would last a couple of more quarters. Certainly, we have a lot of these premium buys, expedites that are rolling through now. And some of that's in inventory. So that certainly is impacting Q4 and will likely impact Q1 as well. As we look beyond that, it will depend on how quickly we can move to a more stable supply level where we're paying more normalized parts for these -- more normalized prices for these parts.

是的，我在準備好的評論中說過，我們認為這會持續幾個季度。當然，我們有很多這樣的溢價購買，現在正在加速。其中一些在庫存中。所以這肯定會影響第四季度，也可能會影響第一季度。當我們超越這一點時，這將取決於我們能以多快的速度達到更穩定的供應水平，在這種水平上，我們為這些零件支付更多的標準化零件——這些零件的更標準化的價格。

So it's difficult to say in the near term, but certainly over the course of the year, we'd expect to see some improvement. Probably the simplest way to think about it is probably -- the situation probably persists for another couple of quarters and then gradually improves from there. We don't see a silver bullet, Krish, where suddenly magically things get much better.

所以短期內很難說，但肯定在這一年中，我們預計會看到一些改善。最簡單的思考方式可能是——這種情況可能會持續幾個季度，然後逐漸好轉。我們沒有看到靈丹妙藥，Krish，突然間神奇的事情變得好多了。

But we've done a lot to take mitigating actions, including working with our customers on cost recovery, on sharing some of the price changes that we're seeing. We're working with our suppliers to have better long-term agreements and sources of supply, which should hopefully get us out of some of the premium buys and things we're having to do through distribution and other channels. And as volume begins to improve, obviously, that helps our factory utilization as well.

但我們已經做了很多工作來採取緩解措施，包括與我們的客戶合作回收成本，分享我們看到的一些價格變化。我們正在與我們的供應商合作，以達成更好的長期協議和供應來源，這有望讓我們擺脫一些溢價購買以及我們必須通過分銷和其他渠道做的事情。顯然，隨著產量開始增加，這也有助於我們工廠的利用率。

So all those factors will contribute to margins getting back to where we'd like them. It's interesting, if you look at the actual numbers, it's pretty clear that if you excluded the higher cost of materials we're paying in the near term and the impact on our factories, we're certainly running at or around that 40% level. So some of these are transitory. The premium buys will pass more quickly. Some of them will be longer term, and we think there will be opportunity for price and other mitigating actions around redesign that Steve talked about earlier.

因此，所有這些因素都將有助於利潤率回到我們想要的水平。有趣的是，如果你看一下實際數字，很明顯，如果你排除我們在短期內支付的更高材料成本以及對我們工廠的影響，我們肯定會在 40% 左右的水平上運行.所以其中一些是暫時的。溢價購買將更快地通過。其中一些將是長期的，我們認為將有機會針對史蒂夫之前談到的重新設計採取價格和其他緩解措施。

But we feel confident as we look out, I think in the last call, we thought the exit rate of 2022, we could be back around that 40% level. We don't have a lot of visibility. Obviously, the timing could change. But that's, I think, not an unreasonable way to think about it.

但我們在展望未來時充滿信心，我認為在上次電話會議中，我們認為 2022 年的退出率可能會回到 40% 左右。我們沒有太多的知名度。顯然，時間可能會改變。但我認為，這並不是一種不合理的思考方式。

Got it. That's really good color, Paul. And then I just had 2 quick follow-ups. The $50 million incremental revenue, is it fair that you given that -- in your prepared comments, you said there's a lot more supply constraint issues on the I&M, Telecom & Networking and Data Center side. Is the incremental $50 million more tied towards the legacy Artesyn business is the way to think about it and i.e. that's where you might see some price recovery and helping margins as the revenue comes back?

知道了。這顏色真不錯，保羅。然後我只進行了 2 次快速跟進。 5000 萬美元的增量收入，你給出的公平嗎——在你準備好的評論中，你說在 I&M、電信和網絡以及數據中心方面存在更多的供應限制問題。與傳統 Artesyn 業務相關的增量 5000 萬美元是否是考慮它的方式，即隨著收入的恢復，您可能會看到價格回升並幫助利潤率？

Yes. I think it's definitely more of a mix, Krish. There's significant upside in our semiconductor products for a lot of reasons, demand is quite healthy there. And remember, not all of the semiconductor demand is in our backlog because of our JIT bin strategy with our largest customers. So there's significant upside in the semi as well. It's fair to think that it would affect both -- it would help all of our markets.

是的。我認為這絕對是一種混合，Krish。由於很多原因，我們的半導體產品有很大的優勢，那裡的需求非常健康。請記住，由於我們與最大客戶的 JIT bin 策略，並非所有半導體需求都在我們的積壓訂單中。因此，半決賽也有很大的上漲空間。可以公平地認為它會影響兩者——它會幫助我們所有的市場。

Fair enough. Fair enough. And then just a final question for Steve. Steve, it seems like -- maybe I'm wrong on this, but I'm just kind of curious, it looks like you're moving away from servicing the hyperscalers markets inside and moving -- shifting more to industry and medical, a, is that true? If so, can you talk a bit about that strategy and how it could impact the long-term revenue margin profile for the company?

很公平。很公平。然後是史蒂夫的最後一個問題。史蒂夫，似乎——也許我在這方面錯了，但我只是有點好奇，看起來你正在從服務內部的超大規模市場轉移——更多地轉向工業和醫療，a ， 真的嗎？如果是這樣，您能否談談該戰略以及它如何影響公司的長期收入利潤率？

Yes, Krish, I think it's fair to say the entire company is moving towards higher value-added products. That includes what we're doing for hyperscalers and enterprise computing customers. If we take a look at I&M, the Industrial & Medical group, the most attractive part of that market is it's almost entirely sole source at least for us. And so we have put more engineering horsepower into the Industrial & Medical business, and we expect to grow that at a faster rate moving forward.

是的，Krish，我認為可以公平地說整個公司都在向更高附加值的產品發展。這包括我們為超大規模用戶和企業計算客戶所做的事情。如果我們看一下工業和醫療集團 I&M，這個市場最吸引人的部分是它幾乎完全是唯一的來源，至少對我們來說是這樣。因此，我們將更多的工程能力投入到工業和醫療業務中，我們希望以更快的速度向前發展。

Our next question is from the line of Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Quinn Bolton 與 Needham & Company 的合作。

I wanted to follow up on Krish's question, maybe ask it in a slightly different way. If you look at the business today, obviously, there's a lot of pent-up demand. But wondering how much of that affects the Industrial & Medical and semi business versus the more embedded telecom and server businesses? I would think that there may be more perishable demand in those embedded markets.

我想跟進 Krish 的問題，也許會以稍微不同的方式提出。如果你看看今天的業務，顯然有很多被壓抑的需求。但想知道與更多嵌入式電信和服務器業務相比，這對工業和醫療以及半成品業務有多大影響？我認為那些嵌入式市場可能會有更多易腐爛的需求。

And so as the business comes back, does it come back faster in Industrial & Medical and semi, which are higher-margin businesses? Or do you think there's actually better growth off a pretty depressed level in the more embedded but lower-margin businesses as you come through next year?

因此，隨著業務的恢復，它在利潤率較高的工業和醫療以及半成品業務中恢復得更快嗎？或者您是否認為在您明年到來時，更多嵌入式但利潤率較低的業務實際上會在相當低迷的水平上有更好的增長？

Yes. Go ahead, Steve.

是的。來吧，史蒂夫。

Yes. Let me just echo what Paul said earlier. We see shortages across all of our businesses, whether it's semiconductors, industrial & medical and the high-volume hyperscale and enterprise computing businesses. So it's hard to predict which comes back faster, if they all come back at the same time. But I can say that we're working hard in all the businesses to close the gaps. We are paying significant premiums every week to source parts from various distribution and broker channels and working closely with our customers in all the segments to meet their needs. So we really can't predict which market will come back faster than another.

是的。讓我重複保羅之前所說的話。我們看到我們所有業務都存在短缺，無論是半導體、工業和醫療，還是大容量超大規模和企業計算業務。因此，如果它們同時返回，則很難預測哪個返回得更快。但我可以說，我們正在努力在所有業務中縮小差距。我們每週都支付大量溢價從各種分銷和代理渠道採購零件，並與所有細分市場的客戶密切合作以滿足他們的需求。所以我們真的無法預測哪個市場會比另一個市場恢復得更快。

Understood. And then the second question, you mentioned keeping the Shenzhen facility open through the second quarter. Wondering if you might be able to quantify how much of an impact that might have on your fixed expense base. I imagine to the extent you close that down, that there could be a nice gross margin lift in the second half of next year, especially as revenue at that point should be ramping as you start to meet some of this pent-up demand?

明白了。然後是第二個問題，你提到在第二季度保持深圳工廠的開放。想知道您是否能夠量化這對您的固定費用基數的影響有多大。我想在你關閉它的範圍內，明年下半年毛利率可能會有一個很好的提升，特別是當你開始滿足一些被壓抑的需求時，那時的收入應該會增加？

Yes, that's right, Quinn. We've said that the cost of keeping that site open from a fixed cost is between 50 and 100 basis points of gross margin.

是的，沒錯，奎因。我們已經說過，保持網站開放的固定成本成本在毛利率的 50 到 100 個基點之間。

Our next question is from the line of Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

Going back to your Q4 guide, what would be your revenue be if there was no supply chain disruption?

回到您的 Q4 指南，如果沒有供應鏈中斷，您的收入是多少？

Well, I think it's easy to look at that in a hypothetical, say, if there was no parts disruption, you could add that $50 million in today, at least. We certainly have shippable demand that's well in excess of that where customers will take the products as quickly as we can get them. And then it would be just a matter of manufacturing capacity, which we certainly have enough manufacturing capacity to meet that number. So it's really all about having the critical parts.

好吧，我認為在一個假設中很容易看待這個問題，比如說，如果沒有零件中斷，你至少可以在今天增加 5000 萬美元。我們當然有可運輸的需求，遠遠超過客戶將盡快收到產品的需求。然後這只是製造能力的問題，我們當然有足夠的製造能力來滿足這個數字。所以這真的是關於擁有關鍵部分。

Yes. Let me just add to that. I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we are maintaining a full workforce in all of our factories. So we have the surge capacity to get well beyond $400 million a quarter in revenue. So we have the people in place. And as the parts appear, we could build that equipment pretty rapidly.

是的。讓我補充一下。我在準備好的發言中提到，我們在所有工廠都保持了完整的員工隊伍。因此，我們有能力使每季度的收入遠遠超過 4 億美元。所以我們已經安排好了人員。當零件出現時，我們可以非常快速地建造該設備。

Okay. And then you highlighted the growth in semi business in the December quarter versus September? Should I assume that other business units will be flat to down and semis will show growth? Or would the other business units be flat?

好的。然後你強調了 12 月季度與 9 月相比半導體業務的增長？我是否應該假設其他業務部門將持平或下降，而半成品將顯示增長？或者其他業務部門會持平嗎？

Yes, I would say, generally speaking, semi, we expect to be up, probably Industrial & Medical, flat to up, and the high volume would likely be the offset to that. The high volume being Telecom & Networking and Data Center Computing. But look, it's all about what parts we get in and where they go. That's the critical thing. So it's a little hard to predict exactly the mix.

是的，我會說，一般來說，半，我們預計會上升，可能是工業和醫療，持平到上升，而大量的交易量可能會抵消這一點。高容量是電信和網絡以及數據中心計算。但是看，這完全是關於我們進入哪些部分以及它們去哪裡。這是關鍵。因此，很難準確預測混合情況。

I see. Okay. And just for purposes of modeling and assuming that about $50 million of business were to come back throughout '22, would you have to expand your OpEx? Should I assume that your OpEx would go up maybe $1 million or $2 million per quarter? Or would you keep it kind of flattish from here on?

我懂了。好的。並且僅出於建模目的並假設在整個 22 年將恢復約 5000 萬美元的業務，您是否必須擴大運營支出？我是否應該假設您的運營支出每季度可能增加 100 萬或 200 萬美元？或者你會從這裡開始保持它的扁平化嗎？

Yes. Our intent is to keep it flattish from here on. We have, as you know, Mehdi, sort of accelerated already investment in R&D because we have a lot of opportunities ahead of us, working with our customers. We're very excited about those. And there'll be a little bit of inflationary pressures. But our goal is to basically keep our infrastructure flat, and then there'll be some inflation on top of that. But we don't need to add a lot of operating costs as revenues grow beyond just kind of your typical variable costs that are completely tied to revenue. So not much OpEx growth as revenues recover.

是的。我們的目的是從這裡開始保持平坦。正如你所知，Mehdi，我們已經加快了對研發的投資，因為我們有很多機會與客戶合作。我們對這些感到非常興奮。並且會有一點通貨膨脹壓力。但我們的目標是基本上保持我們的基礎設施平坦，然後在這之上會出現一些通貨膨脹。但是我們不需要增加很多運營成本，因為收入的增長超出了與收入完全相關的典型可變成本。因此，隨著收入的恢復，OpEx 的增長並不多。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is coming from the line of Pavel Molchanov with Raymond James.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 Pavel Molchanov 和 Raymond James 的台詞。

You've done a little bit of M&A over the past year, but I'm curious if the supply chain complications that you and everybody else clearly is experiencing might create some distress situations that you could opportunistically take advantage of. Is that a realistic scenario in terms of your -- some of the potential M&A targets?

在過去的一年裡，你做了一些併購，但我很好奇你和其他人顯然正在經歷的供應鏈並發症是否會造成一些你可以機會主義利用的困境。就您的一些潛在併購目標而言，這是一個現實的場景嗎？

That's an interesting question, Pavel. What we're seeing actually is we have some targets we're looking at, but they don't want to do a transaction because their financials are distressed because of the part shortages. So it's kind of a circle here. So I think as the parts shortages start to abate, I think you'll see the potential for more deals in this space.

這是一個有趣的問題，帕維爾。我們實際上看到的是我們有一些我們正在尋找的目標，但他們不想進行交易，因為他們的財務狀況因零件短缺而陷入困境。所以這裡有點像一個圓圈。所以我認為隨著零件短缺開始減少，我認為你會看到這個領域有更多交易的潛力。

Okay. So kind of the opposite of what...

好的。所以有點相反......

Yes, the opposite.

是的，恰恰相反。

Okay. Fair enough. Your dividend is now at its 1-year anniversary, congrats on that. Should we anticipate a dividend increase at any point in '22?

好的。很公平。您的股息現在是 1 週年紀念日，對此表示祝賀。我們是否應該預期 22 年的任何時候都會增加股息？

Yes. Pavel, obviously, that's something that the Board will review on a regular basis. At this point, we're not really in a position to comment on that. But look, our focus right now is on growing our business. We think there's a lot of opportunities to do that organically and inorganically. We're certainly investing a lot in working capital right now to support what we think is that upsize of growth. So we'll take that in stride, but no comments on that at this point.

是的。 Pavel，顯然，這是董事會將定期審查的內容。在這一點上，我們真的無法對此發表評論。但是看，我們現在的重點是發展我們的業務。我們認為有很多機會有機地和無機地做到這一點。我們現在肯定在營運資金上投入了大量資金，以支持我們認為的增長規模。所以我們會泰然處之，但目前不對此發表評論。

(Operator Instructions) At this time, we've reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I'll turn the call over to Steve Kelley for his closing remarks.

（操作員說明）此時，我們已經到了問答環節的結尾。我會把電話轉給史蒂夫凱利，讓他發表閉幕詞。

Thanks for joining us today. We are dealing with near-term supply challenges, but we remain firmly focused on the timely introduction of new products and technologies, the drivers of AE's future revenue and profit growth. With strong demand for our products, a record order book and a solid pipeline of high-value proprietary designs, we are well positioned to meet or exceed our medium- and long-term financial targets.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們正在應對近期的供應挑戰，但我們仍然堅定地專注於及時推出新產品和新技術，這是 AE 未來收入和利潤增長的驅動力。憑藉對我們產品的強勁需求、創紀錄的訂單簿和穩固的高價值專有設計管道，我們有能力實現或超過我們的中長期財務目標。

We look forward to talking with many of you in the coming weeks. Thank you.

我們期待在接下來的幾週內與你們中的許多人交談。謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。我們感謝您的參與。