ADT Inc (ADT) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ADT Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this conference is being recorded.

下午好，女士們先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 ADT 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，本次會議正在錄製中。

I will now turn the conference over to your host, Derek Fiebig, Vice President, Investor Relations for ADT. Thank you. You may begin.

現在我將會議交給東道主 ADT 投資者關係副總裁 Derek Fiebig。 謝謝。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining ADT's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. This afternoon, we issued a press release and slide presentation of our financial results. These materials are available on our website at investor.adt.com.

謝謝業者，也謝謝大家參加 ADT 2020 年第四季財報電話會議。今天下午，我們發布了財務業績的新聞稿和幻燈片簡報。這些資料可在我們的網站 Investor.adt.com 上取得。

Our remarks today will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we've described in our press release issued this afternoon and in our filings with SEC. Please note that all forward-looking statements speak only as of the time they are made, and we disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

我們今天的言論將包括1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。結果存在重大差異。這些風險包括我們在今天下午發布的新聞稿和向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中所述的事項等。請注意，所有前瞻性陳述僅代表其作出時的情況，我們不承擔更新這些前瞻性陳述的義務。

During today's call, we'll make reference to non-GAAP financial measures. Our historical and forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures include special items, which are difficult to predict and/or may be mainly dependent upon future uncertainties. For a complete reconciliation of historical non-GAAP to the most comparable GAAP financial measures, please refer to our press release issued this afternoon and our slide presentation, both of which are available on our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標。我們的歷史和前瞻性非公認會計準則財務指標包括難以預測和/或可能主要取決於未來不確定性的特殊項目。有關歷史非 GAAP 與最具可比性 GAAP 財務指標的完整對照，請參閱我們今天下午發布的新聞稿和我們的幻燈片演示，兩者均可在我們的網站上獲取。

With me on today's call are ADT's President and CEO, Jim DeVries; and our CFO, Jeffrey Likosar. Also joining us in the room and available for Q&A is Don Young, our CIO and EVP of Field Operations; and Jason Smith, Senior Vice President of Finance.

與我一起參加今天電話會議的有 ADT 總裁兼執行長 Jim DeVries；以及我們的財務長 Jeffrey Likosar。我們的 CIO 兼現場營運執行副總裁 Don Young 也加入了我們的房間並接受問答。和財務高級副總裁 Jason Smith。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

這樣，我就把電話轉給吉姆。

Thanks, Derek, and thank you to everyone for joining us today. I'd like to begin our first call of 2021 with some comments reflecting on our 2020 overall performance and then share some thoughts regarding our new partnerships and current growth momentum. Finally, I'll offer some perspective on ADT's priorities as we advance into 2021. I'll then ask Jeff to cover our financial results as well as our 2021 outlook.

謝謝德里克，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。在我們 2021 年的第一次電話會議開始時，我想先回顧一下我們 2020 年的整體業績，然後分享一些關於我們新的合作夥伴關係和當前成長勢頭的想法。最後，我將就 ADT 在進入 2021 年時的優先事項提供一些看法。

With the world thrust into an unexpected pandemic, 2020 was an extraordinarily challenging year for so many and impacted everyone's lives in different ways. It was also a year which brought us, at ADT, the gift of perspective. We were reminded more than ever of the importance of protecting one's home and family. For all of us at ADT, 2020 brought a new-found appreciation for the essential role we play, partnering with first responders and serving our customers and communities continuously and reliably. After witnessing the tremendous collaborative efforts of our team during the past year, I'm humbled to be able to lead such a great organization and couldn't possibly be more proud of the collective performance of our more than 20,000 ADT associates and our dealer partners.

隨著世界陷入一場意想不到的大流行，2020 年對許多人來說是極具挑戰性的一年，並以不同的方式影響著每個人的生活。這也是 ADT 賦予我們洞察力的一年。我們比以往任何時候都更意識到保護家園和家人的重要性。對於 ADT 的所有人來說，2020 年我們對自己所扮演的重要角色有了新的認識，我們與急救人員合作，持續可靠地為我們的客戶和社區提供服務。在見證了我們團隊在過去一年中的巨大協作努力後，我為能夠領導如此出色的組織而深感榮幸，並對我們 20,000 多名 ADT 員工和經銷商合作夥伴的集體表現感到無比自豪。

During our first call last year, on March 5, prior to the impact of the pandemic even being understood, ADT provided a full year 2020 financial outlook. Our guide was $5 billion to $5.3 billion for revenue, $2.175 billion to $2.25 billion for adjusted EBITDA and $630 million to $670 million for adjusted free cash flow. Because of the resiliency of ADP's business model and the outstanding performance of our team and despite the challenges and volatility of the economy, we exceeded the upper range of our revenue, delivered in range on adjusted EBITDA and performed just above range on adjusted free cash flow. As I will explain, we also set the table for accelerating our growth and continuing momentum going into 2021.

在我們去年 3 月 5 日的第一次電話會議中，甚至在疫情的影響尚未被了解之前，ADT 就提供了 2020 年全年財務展望。我們的預期營收為 50 億至 53 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 21.75 億至 22.5 億美元，調整後自由現金流為 6.3 億至 6.7 億美元。由於 ADP 業務模式的彈性和我們團隊的出色表現，儘管面臨經濟的挑戰和波動，我們仍超出了收入上限，調整後 EBITDA 的業績在範圍內，調整後自由現金流的表現略高於範圍。正如我將解釋的那樣，我們也為 2021 年加速成長和持續發展勢頭做好了準備。

Further, in 2020, we grew our net subscribers for the full year. Our new U.S. RMR additions started off solid in Q1 at plus 7%, but then in Q2 were down 11% as most of the country began shutting down. However, we continue to drive sustainable internal improvements to our subscriber acquisition engine. This efficiency contributed to not only favorable results, but the positive momentum for our business, especially when combined with secular trend and external demand catalysts, such as new household formation, deurbanization, the desire for increased home security, the acceleration of smart home adoption and growing consumer spending on home improvement more generally. U.S. RMR additions increased year-over-year 10% in the third quarter and 15% in the fourth quarter. Further, our interactive take rate increased to 86%, and we reached the milestone of 3 million residential interactive customers, and just this month, ADT added our 1 millionth customer on the command platform. As we've mentioned in the past, our DIY business continues to grow nicely as well, and we're excited about this complementary part of our business.

此外，2020 年，我們全年的淨訂戶數量有所增加。我們新增加的美國 RMR 在第一季開始穩定成長 7%，但隨著全國大部分地區開始關閉，第二季下降了 11%。然而，我們將繼續推動訂閱者獲取引擎的可持續內部改進。這種效率不僅帶來了良好的業績，也為我們的業務帶來了積極的勢頭，特別是與長期趨勢和外部需求催化劑相結合，例如新家庭的形成、去城市化、增強家庭安全的願望、智慧家居的加速採用和消費者在家居裝修方面的支出普遍增長。美國第三季的 RMR 增量年增 10%，第四季年增 15%。此外，我們的互動使用率提高到86%，我們達到了300萬住宅互動客戶的里程碑，就在本月，ADT在指揮平台上增加了第100萬個客戶。正如我們過去提到的，我們的 DIY 業務也繼續良好成長，我們對我們業務的這一互補部分感到興奮。

We remain anchored to capital-efficient growth and the cost of acquiring subscribers also improved with a record-best revenue payback of 2.2 years. This efficiency was driven by our successful consumer pricing and financing initiative as well as benefits from the Defenders acquisition. Exceeding our expectations, our gross attrition metric improved by 30 basis points to 13.1% as relocations across the country were less common than normal in the second and third quarters, and importantly, our customer satisfaction was strong.

我們仍堅持資本效率型成長，獲取用戶的成本也有所改善，創紀錄的最佳收入回報期為 2.2 年。這種效率是由我們成功的消費者定價和融資計劃以及收購 Defenders 帶來的好處所推動的。超出我們的預期，我們的總流失率提高了30 個基點，達到13.1%，因為第二季度和第三季度全國範圍內的搬遷情況比正常情況要少，而且重要的是，我們的客戶滿意度很高。

We also delivered on our commitment to drive strategic partnerships and alliances to expand our reach and offerings and ultimately, to better serve our customers. On the residential front, we entered into a long-term relationship with D.R. Horton, the nation's largest homebuilder. And in mobile, we introduced ADT to a broader set of potential customers through the national rollout of our partnerships with Lyft and Instacart. Certainly, our most transformative partnership with 2020 was with Google. ADT's long-term strategic relationship with Google significantly enhances our growth opportunities. The foundation for our partnership is a shared vision for the future of the smart and helpful home and a steadfast commitment to our customers. As a reminder, Google invested $450 million of equity in the ADT and has committed $150 million in matching dollars to fund marketing, product development and employee training. Our partnership facilitates the development of new offerings, both services and products, as well as new technologies, which will power ADT's leadership in the rapidly growing smart home market. I'm pleased to share that our partnership with Google is off to a tremendous start. We'll be rolling out product integration beginning in the second quarter, and we're on track to introduce a first-generation ADT + Google solution in the second half of this year. Finally, ADT and Google have agreed on an exciting new joint go-to-market branding strategy, which we'll share later in the year.

我們還兌現了推動策略合作夥伴關係和聯盟的承諾，以擴大我們的影響力和產品範圍，並最終更好地為我們的客戶服務。在住宅方面，我們與 D.R. 建立了長期合作關係。霍頓，美國最大的住宅建築商。在行動領域，我們透過與 Lyft 和 Instacart 的合作夥伴關係在全國範圍內推廣，向更廣泛的潛在客戶介紹了 ADT。當然，2020 年我們最具變革性的合作關係是與 Google。 ADT 與 Google 的長期策略關係顯著增強了我們的成長機會。我們合作關係的基礎是對智慧和有用家庭的未來的共同願景以及對客戶的堅定承諾。提醒一下，Google向 ADT 投資了 4.5 億美元的股權，並承諾提供 1.5 億美元的配套資金，用於資助行銷、產品開發和員工培訓。我們的合作夥伴關係促進了新產品、服務和產品以及新技術的開發，這將增強 ADT 在快速成長的智慧家庭市場中的領導地位。我很高興地告訴大家，我們與 Google 的合作已經有了一個好的開始。我們將從第二季開始推出產品集成，並預計在今年下半年推出第一代 ADT + Google 解決方案。最後，ADT 和 Google 就一項令人興奮的新聯合上市品牌策略達成一致，我們將在今年稍後分享該策略。

Summarizing a unique and unexpected 2020, we purposely and strategically played the long game and will continue to do so. ADT navigated amid the pandemic with resilience and as a whole, avoided any material adverse business impacts while building a strong foundation for growth in the years ahead. We committed to persevere through the COVID-19 crisis with a goal to ultimately become a stronger company, and we've done so. Our momentum going into 2021 is real, and I'm excited to share a few comments about the year to come. We've invested a significant amount of time over the last few years improving our operating KPIs, driving improvements in customer service, better operating metrics, improved efficiencies and field performance. Having made substantial progress in many areas, we begin to focus our improved internal growth capabilities and the pursuit of strategic alliances and partnerships.

總結獨特且出乎意料的2020年，我們有目的地、有策略地打了一場持久戰，並將繼續這樣做。 ADT 在疫情期間保持了韌性，整體上避免了任何重大的不利業務影響，同時為未來幾年的成長奠定了堅實的基礎。我們致力於堅持渡過 COVID-19 危機，目標是最終成為一家更強大的公司，我們做到了。我們進入 2021 年的勢頭是真實的，我很高興分享一些關於未來一年的評論。在過去幾年中，我們投入了大量時間來改善我們的營運 KPI、推動客戶服務的改善、更好的營運指標、提高的效率和現場績效。在許多領域取得實質進展後，我們開始專注於提高內部成長能力並追求策略聯盟和夥伴關係。

As mentioned, we developed a relationship with D.R. Horton, and more recently with Google as a catalyst, we've added new partners such as Ackerman Security and DISH. Ackerman, a successful company over many years with customers in the southeast part of the country, Atlanta in particular, will join forces with ADT as a new residential dealer. Ackerman also provides ADT with some commercial assets. The strategic partnership with DISH expands our total addressable market to additional ex-urban and more rural geographies of the country. Many of the DISH technicians have experience with the installation of Google products and will be a great asset for ADT as we grow. Our operating improvements, the partnerships we've developed and will continue to pursue, the many macro tailwinds and demand catalysts are all converging as we focus more intently on allocating capital to the vast array of growth opportunities we're now presented with.

如前所述，我們與 D.R. 建立了關係。 Horton，最近在 Google 的推動下，我們增加了新的合作夥伴，例如 Ackerman Security 和 DISH。 Ackerman 是一家多年來在美國東南部（尤其是亞特蘭大）擁有客戶的成功公司，將與 ADT 聯手成為新的住宅經銷商。 Ackerman 也為 ADT 提供了一些商業資產。與 DISH 的戰略合作夥伴關係將我們的總體目標市場擴展到該國其他郊區和更多農村地區。許多 DISH 技術人員都有安裝 Google 產品的經驗，隨著我們的成長，這將成為 ADT 的寶貴資產。隨著我們更加專注地將資本分配給我們現在面臨的大量成長機會，我們的營運改善、我們已經建立並將繼續追求的合作夥伴關係、許多宏觀順風和需求催化劑都在匯聚。

2021 represents an exciting pivot point for ADT. We'll leverage our strengths, our trusted brand, our operating excellence, our outstanding customer service, our talented field force, our national scale and our capital efficiency to lean further into high-return growth opportunities before us. With these in mind, I'd like to provide 3 markers to evaluate our progress in 2021. First will be the continued growth in RMR additions. After a strong 2020, we're targeting 2021 growth rates in RMR additions in the mid-teens. As such, you will see a higher aggregate dollar level of SAC investment, which we're allocating toward this high-return growth. We'll continue to be disciplined in our approach with high credit standards and will remain focused on efficient SAC investments with high IRRs in the high teens and above.

2021 年是 ADT 令人興奮的轉捩點。我們將利用我們的優勢、我們值得信賴的品牌、我們的卓越營運、我們出色的客戶服務、我們優秀的現場人員、我們的全國規模和我們的資本效率，進一步抓住我們面前的高回報成長機會。考慮到這些，我想提供 3 個指標來評估我們在 2021 年的進展。在經歷了 2020 年的強勁表現之後，我們的目標是 2021 年 RMR 新增成長率在 15% 左右。因此，您將看到 SAC 投資總額更高，我們將其分配給高回報成長。我們將繼續嚴格遵守高信用標準，並將繼續專注於高 IRR 的高效 SAC 投資。

Keeping these high ROI standards, we plan to deploy between $150 million and $250 million of incremental residential SAC in 2021 versus 2020. Second, we will drive innovation highlighted with the launch of the first generation ADT + Google Smart Home solution during the second half of the year. We will also invest significantly in our next-generation, end-to-end ADT-owned technology platform and continue to pursue meaningful partnerships in mobile safety. Third, while COVID-19 and its continuing impact provides some uncertainty, we expect to return to low double-digit revenue growth and substantial year-over-year improvement in profitability levels for commercial customers during the course of the year. Our early optimism is heightened because the backlog of commercial customers was actually higher at the end of 2020 than the prior year, and the pipeline for new business is healthy. We have an outstanding leadership team in commercial, and we're very excited about this part of our business.

維持這些高投資報酬率標準，我們計劃在2021 年（與2020 年相比）部署1.5 億至2.5 億美元的增量住宅SAC。代ADT + Google 智慧家庭解決方案。我們還將大力投資 ADT 擁有的下一代端到端技術平台，並繼續在行動安全領域尋求有意義的合作夥伴關係。第三，雖然 COVID-19 及其持續影響帶來了一些不確定性，但我們預計今年商業客戶的收入將恢復兩位數的低成長，獲利水準將比去年同期大幅提高。我們早期的樂觀情緒得到了增強，因為 2020 年底商業客戶的積壓實際上比前一年更高，而且新業務的管道也很健康。我們在商業領域擁有一支出色的領導團隊，我們對這部分業務感到非常興奮。

In summary, our current momentum is strong, and we're encouraged about our future. 2021 is positioned to be an exciting year for ADT, one where our growth is more significant than in the past and where investments executed well will result in attractive, sustainable growth for years to come.

總而言之，我們目前的勢頭強勁，我們對未來充滿信心。 2021 年對 ADT 來說將是令人興奮的一年，我們的成長比過去更加顯著，良好的投資將在未來幾年帶來有吸引力的永續成長。

I'll now hand the call over to Jeff. Jeff?

我現在將把電話轉給傑夫。傑夫？

Thanks, Jim, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call this evening. As Jim described, we performed very well in a highly unusual 2020 environment. Like most companies, we encountered many unexpected dynamics, and we are very pleased that we were able to execute on opportunities to offset several of the unplanned challenges we faced. More importantly, we maintained our long-term focus and continued our strategic progress and are specially encouraged by the trends we saw in the second half of the year into 2021.

謝謝吉姆，也謝謝大家今晚加入我們的電話會議。正如 Jim 所描述的，我們在 2020 年極不尋常的環境中表現非常出色。與大多數公司一樣，我們遇到了許多意想不到的動態，我們很高興能夠抓住機會來抵消我們面臨的一些計劃外挑戰。更重要的是，我們保持長期專注，繼續策略進展，尤其對 2021 年下半年的趨勢感到鼓舞。

As a reminder, during 2018 and 2019, our priorities centered on enhancing our service culture, improving our operations and expanding our cash generation capabilities. More recently, we have focused on strengthening our foundation and executing initiatives to drive efficient, sustainable growth in addition to recurring monthly revenue, or RMR. We are pleased with the progress we saw during the second half of 2020 with U.S. RMR additions up 12%, following a 3% first half decline driven by challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. On a full year basis, U.S. RMR adds grew by 5%.

需要提醒的是，2018 年和 2019 年，我們的首要任務集中在增強我們的服務文化、改善我們的營運和擴大我們的現金產生能力。最近，除了每月經常性收入（RMR）之外，我們還專注於加強基礎和執行舉措，以推動高效、可持續的成長。我們對 2020 年下半年的進展感到高興，美國 RMR 成長了 12%，而上半年因 COVID-19 大流行帶來的挑戰下降了 3%。全年來看，美國 RMR 成長了 5%。

We concurrently grew our full year adjusted free cash flow by 14% to $675 million. By comparison and as evidence of our cumulative progress in recent years, adjusted free cash flow in 2017, the year prior to our IPO, was just over $400 million. As Jim mentioned, other full year 2020 highlights include gross revenue attrition at 13.1%, down from 13.4% in 2019 and significantly below the 16-plus percent attrition for legacy ADT prior to the Apollo acquisition. And revenue payback at a record 2.2x in 2020 compares to 2.3x in 2019 and 2.7x on a pro forma basis in 2015.

同時，我們全年調整後自由現金流成長了 14%，達到 6.75 億美元。相較之下，作為我們近年來累積進步的證據，2017 年（我們 IPO 的前一年）調整後的自由現金流剛剛超過 4 億美元。正如 Jim 所提到的，2020 年全年的其他亮點包括總收入流失率為 13.1%，低於 2019 年的 13.4%，並且遠低於阿波羅收購之前傳統 ADT 16% 以上的流失率。 2020 年的營收回報率為創紀錄的 2.2 倍，而 2019 年為 2.3 倍，2015 年預計為 2.7 倍。

As a reminder, some of our core financial measures were affected by the disposition of our Canadian operations in 2019 and the acquisition of Defenders in early 2020. Despite their favorable economics, these transactions reduced our adjusted EBITDA, which was $533 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 and just under $2.2 billion for the full year. Our total year 2020 revenue was $5.315 billion, up 4%, driven by growth in installation revenue primarily due to a higher volume of outright sales transactions for residential customers, which includes volume from the Defenders acquisition. This increase was partially offset by lower sales to commercial customers, which, while down for the year due to COVID-19, improved sequentially in the third and fourth quarters.

提醒一下，我們的一些核心財務指標受到 2019 年加拿大業務處置和 2020 年初收購 Defenders 的影響。年全年將達近22 億美元。我們 2020 年的總收入為 53.15 億美元，成長 4%，主要得益於安裝收入的成長，這主要是由於住宅客戶的直接銷售交易量增加，其中包括收購 Defenders 的交易量。這一增長被商業客戶銷售額的下降部分抵消，儘管今年因 COVID-19 導致銷售額下降，但第三季和第四季環比有所改善。

For the fourth quarter, total revenue was $1.315 billion, up 1% versus 2019, despite the effects of the Canadian disposition and lower sales to commercial customers. The strong 2020 adjusted free cash flow, I already mentioned, up 14%, was a result of several factors, including some offsetting dynamics related to COVID-19. A key contributor was efficiency in net subscriber acquisition costs, or SAC, which was down year-over-year, despite our growth in RMR adds. Other noteworthy items affecting cash flow included our participation in the CARES Act, payroll tax deferral program and the offsetting acceleration of a portion of 2020 annual incentive plan payments.

儘管受到加拿大處置和商業客戶銷售額下降的影響，第四季總收入為 13.15 億美元，較 2019 年成長 1%。我已經提到過，2020 年調整後自由現金流強勁，成長了 14%，這是多種因素共同作用的結果，其中包括與 COVID-19 相關的一些抵消動態。一個關鍵因素是淨用戶獲取成本（SAC）的效率，儘管我們的 RMR 有所成長，但 SAC 卻比去年同期下降。其他影響現金流的值得注意的項目包括我們參與 CARES 法案、工資稅遞延計劃以及 2020 年年度激勵計劃付款的部分抵消加速。

In addition to strong cash generation, we built on our 2019 refinancing transactions to further improve our capital structure during 2020. In January of 2020, we refinanced our second lien notes. In August, we replaced our 2021 first lien notes with new 2027 notes. In December, we repaid $300 million of our term loan, which we then repriced in January of 2021. Our resulting lower borrowing costs and extended maturities provide us with greater flexibility to deploy capital to high-return growth opportunities.

除了強勁的現金產生能力外，我們還在 2019 年再融資交易的基礎上，在 2020 年進一步改善我們的資本結構。 8 月，我們用新的 2027 年留置權票據取代了 2021 年第一張留置權票據。 12 月，我們償還了3 億美元的定期貸款，然後在2021 年1 月重新定價。回報成長機會。

In 2021, we are eager to build on our substantial progress from the past several years. We have strengthened our business fundamentals, enhanced our service culture, grown our cash-generation capability, improved our capital structure and developed new and more efficient routes to market. We are enthusiastic and optimistic about our future, and you can see, on Page 8 in our deck, a summarized framework of our strategic priorities. The next chapter for our company is focused on driving more RMR growth, creating new innovative offerings, further enhancing our overall customer experience and continuing our commitment to generating shareholder returns. We plan to share more detail on our long-term strategic plans and objectives, including our ADT Google branding and products, during Investor Day later in the year.

2021 年，我們渴望在過去幾年取得的實質進展的基礎上再接再厲。我們加強了業務基礎，增強了我們的服務文化，提高了我們的現金生成能力，改善了我們的資本結構，並開發了新的、更有效的市場途徑。我們對我們的未來充滿熱情和樂觀，您可以在我們的投影片第 8 頁上看到我們策略重點的概述框架。我們公司的下一章重點是推動 RMR 成長、創造新的創新產品、進一步增強我們的整體客戶體驗並繼續致力於創造股東回報。我們計劃在今年稍後的投資者日期間分享更多有關我們長期策略計畫和目標的細節，包括我們的 ADT Google 品牌和產品。

Our teams across the business are energized by our strategy and our growth prospects for 2021 and into the future. As Jim mentioned, we anticipate 2021 RMR additions in the mid-teens, which reflects the significant increase from our growth rates during the past few years. We are also investing to support our strategy with our new interactive platform, the development of new offerings in collaboration with google, upgrades to our infrastructure and the launch of the ADT Google marketing program. You can see our result in 2021 financial outlook in our investor deck. It includes total revenue in the range of $5.05 billion to $5.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA in the range of $2.1 billion to $2.2 billion and adjusted free cash flow in the range of $450 million to $550 million. While many factors affect our cash flow, implicit in our guidance is $150 million to $250 million higher cash tax spending in support of the strong RMR growth I just mentioned.

我們的策略以及 2021 年和未來的成長前景使我們整個業務團隊充滿活力。正如 Jim 所提到的，我們預計 2021 年 RMR 的增幅將達到 15%左右，這反映了我們過去幾年成長率的顯著成長。我們還透過新的互動平台、與Google合作開發新產品、升級我們的基礎設施以及推出 ADT 谷歌行銷計劃等投資來支持我們的策略。您可以在我們的投資者平台中看到我們 2021 年財務展望的結果。其中包括50.5億至52.5億美元的總收入、21億至22億美元的調整後EBITDA以及4.5億至5.5億美元的調整後自由現金流。雖然影響我們現金流的因素有很多，但我們的指導中隱含的是現金稅收支出增加了 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元，以支持我剛才提到的強勁 RMR 成長。

As a reminder, our reported revenue and adjusted EBITDA are affected by the Defenders acquisition and the different accounting policies applicable to accounts generated via differing channels and under differing ownership models. These different accounting policies do not affect cash flows, and we described in more detail in our investor deck and 10-K. As you can tell from our 2020 progress and our 2021 outlook, we are well positioned to capitalize on our improved capabilities in several favorable secular trends. Our focus has decided to leave long term, the long game Jim mentioned, and our teams have never been more excited by our future.

提醒一下，我們報告的收入和調整後的 EBITDA 受到 Defenders 收購以及適用於透過不同管道和不同所有權模式產生的帳戶的不同會計政策的影響。這些不同的會計政策不會影響現金流量，我們在投資者平台和 10-K 中進行了更詳細的描述。從我們 2020 年的進展和 2021 年的展望中可以看出，我們處於有利地位，可以在幾個有利的長期趨勢中利用我們改進的能力。我們的重點決定離開長期，吉姆提到的長期遊戲，我們的團隊對我們的未來從未如此興奮。

Before concluding my comments, I want to express my appreciation for our more than 20,000 employees, our dealers and growing list of partners and our investors for the continued support of our company.

在結束我的評論之前，我想對我們 20,000 多名員工、我們的經銷商以及不斷增長的合作夥伴和投資者對我們公司的持續支持表示感謝。

Thank you, everyone, for joining our call today. Operator, please now open the line for questions.

謝謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。接線員，現在請撥打電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Peter Christiansen。

Jim, it's really good to see you guys in a position to up the offense in '21. It makes a ton of sense, but I want to dig a little bit into the cadence on how you're thinking about the incremental SAC throughout the year and introducing new products, particularly the next phase of Google. Is that something that you kind of save your powder for a little bit and then act a little bit more aggressively once that comes out? And as a quick follow-up, it sounds to me that this joint product could have a much higher value proposition for the customer. So is there any preliminary thoughts on pricing and relative to the current interactive offering that you guys provide on the residential side?

吉姆，很高興看到你們能夠在 21 賽季加強進攻。這很有道理，但我想深入了解您全年如何考慮增量 SAC 以及推出新產品（尤其是 Google 的下一階段）的節奏。是不是你先把你的粉末保留一點，然後一旦出現就採取更積極的行動？作為快速跟進，在我看來，這種聯合產品可以為客戶提供更高的價值主張。那麼，對於定價以及你們目前在住宅方面提供的互動產品，有什麼初步的想法嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Pete. So I'll give a little bit of context to the pivot to growth and then ask Jeff to address your question in a little more detailed way. Much of the last several years, Pete, we've been focused on operational excellence. Our retention improved 300 basis points, customer satisfaction improvements. As you're aware, better operating KPIs across the board. Revenue paybacks come down 2.7 to 2.2 years. And at the same time, as we're getting our operational house in order, we have macro trends and the demand catalyst that we've been talking about and discussing as tailwinds. Essentially, our products -- we see our products and services are in demand. And then in addition to getting our operational house in order and the macro tailwinds, we have worked really hard on building strategic relationships. It's a long list. D.R. Horton, DISH, Ackerman, some relationships in the insurance space. And when you combine all those factors, operational excellence, macro trends, new partnerships and now Google, we're able to allocate capital to high-return growth and pivot more assertively to capital-efficient growth.

是的。謝謝，皮特。因此，我將提供一些有關增長支點的背景信息，然後請傑夫以更詳細的方式回答您的問題。皮特，在過去幾年的大部分時間裡，我們一直專注於卓越營運。我們的保留率提高了 300 個基點，客戶滿意度也提高了。如您所知，全面改善營運 KPI。收入回收期縮短 2.7 至 2.2 年。同時，當我們讓我們的營運機構井然有序時，我們就有了宏觀趨勢和需求催化劑，我們一直在談論和討論這些作為順風車。從本質上講，我們的產品—我們看到我們的產品和服務很受歡迎。然後，除了讓我們的營運機構井然有序和宏觀順風之外，我們還非常努力地建立戰略關係。這是一個很長的清單。博士Horton、DISH、Ackerman，保險領域的一些關係。當你將所有這些因素、卓越營運、宏觀趨勢、新合作夥伴關係以及現在的谷歌結合起來時，我們就能夠將資本分配給高回報成長，並更加堅定地轉向資本效率型成長。

Jeff, do you want to add something?

傑夫，你想補充點什麼嗎？

Yes. I'd just add that it's energizing for the whole organization to be in a growth mode. So there's a lot of enthusiasm across the company, a lot of fun. Your specific question about the cadence the comparisons will be odd because last year was odd. So second quarter, of course, was the most depressed quarter so the compares are easy. The Ackerman alliance and initial account purchases from that agreement will be helpful in the first quarter. But the way I would think about it is, our pace of adds or our pace of SAC spending, setting aside the Ackerman purchase in the first quarter, we would expect to be relatively normal with historic patterns, excluding last year. So a bit higher in the summer season when there tends to be more activity, but aside from that, we're modeling as if it returns to a more normal cadence over the course of the year-on-year will be affected by the abnormal cadence in 2020.

是的。我想補充一點，整個組織處於成長模式會充滿活力。所以整個公司充滿熱情，充滿樂趣。你關於比較節奏的具體問題會很奇怪，因為去年很奇怪。當然，第二季度是最蕭條的季度，因此很容易進行比較。阿克曼聯盟和根據該協議進行的初始帳戶購買將在第一季有所幫助。但我的想法是，我們的增加速度或 SAC 支出速度，撇開第一季阿克曼的購買不談，我們預計歷史模式將相對正常（不包括去年）。因此，在活動較多的夏季，頻率會更高一些，但除此之外，我們正在建模，好像它在一年中恢復到更正常的節奏會受到異常情況的影響。

Great. So not really like a first half, second half story? Pretty normal cadence throughout the year?

偉大的。所以不太像前半部、後半部故事？全年節奏很正常？

Yes. We're expecting to layer things in as we go through the year, but we exit 2020 with really strong momentum, having grown U.S. RMR at by 15% in the second half of the year. So we're entering the year with momentum. We have additional benefit coming from -- even the recent partnerships we've announced just over the past several days with the easiest comparables in the second quarter of 2021 because of the soft 2020, and then the tougher compares in the second half of the year.

是的。我們預計在這一年中將事情分層，但我們以非常強勁的勢頭結束 2020 年，美國 RMR 在今年下半年增長了 15%。因此，我們正以強勁的勢頭進入新的一年。我們還有額外的好處來自——甚至是我們在過去幾天剛剛宣布的最近的合作夥伴關係，由於 2020 年的疲軟，2021 年第二季度的比較最容易，而下半年的比較則更艱難。

Our next question is from George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 George Tong。

I wanted to dive deeper into your plans to deploy $150 million to $250 million of residential SAC in 2021. Can you elaborate on which customer segments you plan to go after with this incremental spend? And what returns you expect from the investment?

我想更深入地了解你們計劃在 2021 年部署 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元的住宅 SAC。您期望從投資中獲得什麼回報？

Yes. George, it's Jim. The -- so there is a handful of different opportunities in front of us. Most of the incremental SAC will be spent in the residential business. We've got the demand catalyst that we've talked about since the third quarter bringing some pretty significant headwinds or tailwinds for us and some unique opportunities to really allocate capital to that business and grow. The returns are high-teens and above, and we'll also allocate some of that capital to opportunities in the commercial space, but most of the incremental capital will be in residential.

是的。喬治，是吉姆。 - 所以我們面前有一些不同的機會。大部分增量 SAC 將用於住宅業務。自第三季以來，我們一直在談論需求催化劑，這為我們帶來了一些相當大的逆風或順風，以及一些真正為該業務分配資本並實現成長的獨特機會。回報率高達十幾歲及以上，我們也將把部分資本分配給商業領域的機會，但大部分增量資本將用於住宅領域。

And George, one thing I'd add is that if you look at our historical financials and we included a slide in our deck that shows back 2017, the year prior to the IPO, but we're planning to generate these RMR adds still with more free cash flow generation, adjusted free cash flow as compared to 2017, which is just a testament -- kind of a quantitative testament to some of the points Jim made earlier about all the progress we've made in recent years, becoming more efficient, better attrition, better SAC efficiency, improving our capital structure. So we're very excited to be in a position to have the capital structure and the cash-generation capabilities to be able to grow at a higher rate.

喬治，我要補充的一件事是，如果你看看我們的歷史財務數據，我們在我們的幻燈片中包含了一張幻燈片，顯示了2017 年，即IPO 的前一年，但我們計劃仍然以與2017 年相比，更多的自由現金流產生，調整後的自由現金流，這只是一個證明——一種定量證明，吉姆早些時候提出的關於我們近年來取得的所有進展的一些觀點，變得更有效率，更好的人員流失，更好的SAC效率，改善我們的資本結構。因此，我們非常高興能夠擁有能夠以更高速度成長的資本結構和現金產生能力。

Got it. That's helpful. And just as a follow-up, do you view the increase in SAC as a permanent/structural step-up? Or do you expect it to reverse? And then perhaps, related to that question, what kind of payback period do you expect? Is it a 2-year payback? So in other words, you get back to this $150 million to $250 million 2 years down the line? How are you thinking about that?

知道了。這很有幫助。作為後續行動，您是否認為 SAC 的增加是永久性/結構性的升級？還是你預期情況會逆轉？然後，也許與這個問題相關，您期望什麼樣的投資回收期？是不是2年就能回本？換句話說，你會在 2 年後回到 1.5 億至 2.5 億美元嗎？你覺得怎麼樣？

I would think about it, and we plan to share more in an Investor Day in the second half of the year. But I would think of it as we are raising the water level with respect to the quantity of new subscribers and/or new RMR that we add each year. So we would expect to continue to grow. Of course, we will seek to become more SAC-efficient and improve revenue payback over time. And then in terms of your question on payback, I would describe that in the context of IRRs, we target IRRs in the teens and higher. And as we've talked about many times in the past, the IRRs is a combination of the upfront cost to acquire the customer, the profitability of the customer on an ongoing basis and then how long the customer stays with us. So we're always looking at all -- each of those variables, among others, with an eye on optimizing the return on the capital that we deploy.

我會考慮一下，我們計劃在下半年的投資者日分享更多內容。但我認為這是因為我們正在提高每年增加的新訂戶和/或新 RMR 數量的水位。因此，我們預計會繼續成長。當然，隨著時間的推移，我們將尋求提高 SAC 效率並提高收入回報。然後，就您關於投資回收期的問題而言，我將描述在內部報酬率的背景下，我們的目標內部報酬率為十幾歲及以上。正如我們過去多次討論的那樣，IRR 是獲取客戶的前期成本、客戶持續盈利能力以及客戶在我們這裡停留的時間的組合。因此，我們始終關注所有變量，尤其是其他變量，並專注於優化我們部署的資本回報率。

Two quick points of elaboration, George. The first is that as a philosophy, we'll continue to pursue our growth in a very disciplined way. We won't retreat from our standards on credit. We'll continue to be disciplined and ensure that this growth is good growth. And then specifically, on your question on payback, I think we'll continue to have a revenue payback that's in the zone of where we are now. It might move a bit up, it might move a bit down, but we'll be in a range that will facilitate the returns that Jeff just mentioned on IRRs and in a revenue payback range consistent with those higher IRRs.

喬治，有兩個簡單的闡述點。首先，作為一種理念，我們將繼續以非常有紀律的方式追求我們的成長。我們不會放棄我們的信用標準。我們將繼續遵守紀律，確保這種成長是良好的成長。然後具體來說，關於你關於投資回報的問題，我認為我們將繼續在我們現在所處的區域內獲得收入回報。它可能會上升一點，也可能會下降一點，但我們將處於一個範圍內，這將有利於傑夫剛才提到的內部收益率和與那些較高的內部收益率一致的收入回報範圍。

Our next question is from Toni Kaplan with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的東尼卡普蘭。

Just wanted to understand the revenue impact versus the RMR growth. So I understand the equipment financing shift, but excluding that, I guess, revenue would maybe be up about 4%. And your RMR estimate looks like more of a high-teens growth. So is that largely due to a decline in installation revenue? Just why it doesn't the RMR addition flow more through to the top line?

只是想了解收入對 RMR 成長的影響。所以我理解設備融資的轉變，但排除這一點，我猜收入可能會成長約 4%。您的 RMR 估計看起來更像是高青少年成長。那麼這主要是由於安裝收入的下降嗎？為什麼 RMR 的增加沒有更多地流向頂線？

Yes. It's definitely that. It's a somewhat complex topic, but because we are in the process of converting legacy Defenders to our historic ADT ownership model and because last year, we, for a portion of the year, had legacy ADT in an outright sales model, we had meaningfully more installation revenue last year. We included some description of this in our earnings materials. We estimate it's about $350 million to $400 million of lower revenue. It will predominantly be lower install revenue, which is worth about 7 points. So it's not for that pressure that we have, we have additional revenue. The drivers of that additional revenue is a recovery in the commercial part of our business, which we expect to get back to something that looks more like the trajectory pre-COVID-19 and then the flow-through of our M&S revenue growth that comes from the RMR adds that we had last year and expect to continue into this year.

是的。肯定是這樣的。這是一個有點複雜的話題，但因為我們正在將舊版Defenders 轉換為我們歷史上的ADT 所有權模式，並且因為去年，我們在一年中的一部分時間裡，以直接銷售模式擁有舊版ADT，所以我們有更多有意義的東西去年的安裝收入。我們在收益資料中對此進行了一些描述。我們估計收入減少約 3.5 億至 4 億美元。主要是安裝收入較低，價值約 7 個百分點。所以我們不是因為壓力，而是因為我們有額外的收入。額外收入的驅動因素是我們業務的商業部分的復甦，我們預計這將回到更像 COVID-19 之前的軌跡，然後是我們的瑪莎百貨收入增長的流動RMR 補充說，我們去年就有這樣的情況，預計今年還會繼續這樣下去。

That makes sense. And I wanted to ask about attrition. So just given the fewer customer relocations during COVID, that was a real benefit to the attrition this year. And of course, it's a trailing 12-months metric. So just help us out with how you're expecting attrition to trend this year. I just want to make sure that we have a good sense as the year goes on, just expectations for what you're thinking there.

這是有道理的。我想問一下關於損耗的問題。因此，考慮到新冠疫情期間客戶搬遷的數量減少，這對今年的客戶流失來說是一個真正的好處。當然，這是一個過去 12 個月的指標。因此，請幫助我們了解您對今年人員流失趨勢的預期。我只是想確保隨著這一年的過去，我們有良好的判斷力，只是對你們的想法有期望。

Sure, Toni. The retention for us in 2020 was a real strength, ending the year at 13.3%, down 30 basis points from last year. Some companies report net attrition. If we use that metric, we're actually closer to 10% attrition level. And so we feel good about the progress that we've made. We saw improvement in most categories, and they had a record low in Q3. In the fourth quarter, we continued to improve in the categories of lost competition and non-pay, but real estate activity, as everybody knows, picked up late in the year, and we saw pressure on relocations, in particular. So we're -- long term, we're optimistic about customer retention, especially as we enter the smart home space more aggressively. We know the more our customers use our systems when devices are more plentiful, when the devices and the system is integrated in the daily activities of our customer, then we know that retention improves. So we think that we'll trade -- we think that we'll be in a range here for attrition with some relocation headwinds and some smart home and interactive rate tailwinds that we'll carry through 2021.

當然，托尼。 2020 年，我們的保留率確實強勁，年末為 13.3%，比去年下降了 30 個基點。一些公司報告出現淨流失。如果我們使用該指標，我們實際上更接近 10% 的流失率。因此，我們對所取得的進展感到滿意。我們看到大多數類別都有所改善，並且在第三季創下歷史新低。第四季度，我們在失去競爭和非薪酬方面繼續取得進步，但眾所周知，房地產活動在今年晚些時候有所回升，我們尤其看到了搬遷的壓力。因此，從長遠來看，我們對客戶保留持樂觀態度，特別是當我們更積極地進入智慧家庭領域時。我們知道，當設備更加充足時，當設備和系統整合到客戶的日常活動中時，客戶使用我們的系統的次數越多，我們就知道保留率會提高。因此，我們認為我們會進行交易——我們認為我們將處於一個自然損耗的範圍內，伴隨著一些搬遷逆風和一些智慧家庭和互動率順風，我們將在 2021 年繼續這樣做。

One additional thing to mention to you. When we acquired Defenders, we continue to receive a charge back benefit for accounts sold prior to the acquisition. And that benefit expired over 12 months and was a slight metric headwind in 2020. The impact of the charge back change in 2021 is about 40 basis points.

還有一件事要向您提一下。當我們收購 Defenders 時，我們將繼續收到收購前出售的帳戶的退款福利。該福利在 12 個月內到期，並且在 2020 年是一個輕微的指標阻力。

And Toni, one other point that I don't believe I mentioned. When I talk about the change in revenue recognition because of the ownership model for residential customers, that is a noncash change. So we're still collecting the same amount of revenue from customers. In fact, we're collecting even more revenue because of the success of our pricing and our financing initiatives. But we capitalized that revenue netted against the equipment costs, and then we recognized that revenue over time. So this is a different accounting treatment because of the different ownership model, nothing to do with cash. And in fact, more install revenue is one that contributed to the improved acquisition cost efficiency or revenue payback improvement that you see.

還有托尼，我認為我沒有提到的另一點。當我談到由於住宅客戶的所有權模式而導致的收入確認變化時，這是一種非現金變化。因此，我們仍然從客戶那裡獲得相同數量的收入。事實上，由於我們的定價和融資計劃的成功，我們獲得了更多的收入。但我們將這些收入扣除設備成本後資本化，然後隨著時間的推移我們確認了收入。因此，由於所有權模式不同，這是一種不同的會計處理方法，與現金無關。事實上，更多的安裝收入有助於提高購置成本效率或提高您所看到的收入回報。

And Toni, this is Derek. If you look at Page 25 in the deck, we provide some of the case on it. It could be helpful to investor's community when they model.

東尼，這是德瑞克。如果您查看套牌中的第 25 頁，我們會提供一些案例。當投資者進行建模時，這可能會對他們有所幫助。

Our next question is from Kevin McVeigh with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的凱文·麥克維。

Could you just give us a little more context on what the $50 million investment is in next-gen technology platforms? What you expect -- how do you expect that to impact the business longer term?

您能否為我們提供更多有關下一代技術平台 5000 萬美元投資的背景資訊？您的期望是什麼－您預期這會對業務產生怎樣的長期影響？

So you were breaking up a little bit there, Kevin, but I'll -- I think you're asking about the $50 million?

所以你們有點分手了，凱文，但我——我想你問的是 5000 萬美元？

About the platform in which we're investing?

關於我們投資的平台？

Yes. That's right.

是的。這是正確的。

Give some insight on the platform?

能否提供一些關於平台的見解？

Yes. Just for context, and then I'll ask Don to describe a bit more. But the 2 areas of investment that we've called out is the higher SAC spending that goes with the RMR as in the teams. And then the second, we noted in our materials, is approximately $50 million associated with the development of our next-generation platform, which we described on our last call. There is, of course, lots of other puts and takes that go into our cash flow guidance, but those are a couple that are noteworthy, and I'll ask Don to describe a bit more about the platform itself.

是的。僅供參考，然後我會請 Don 描述更多內容。但我們指出的兩個投資領域是與團隊中的 RMR 相關的更高的 SAC 支出。我們在材料中指出，第二個大約是 5000 萬美元，與我們在上次電話會議中描述的下一代平台的開發相關。當然，我們的現金流指導中還有許多其他看跌期權和看跌期權，但其中有一些值得注意，我將請唐詳細描述一下該平臺本身。

Yes. So Kevin, we've actually inherited some nice IT and project engineers from 3 acquisitions, Red Hawk, LifeShield and Defenders. But in addition to that since the Google announcement, we've doubled the number of engineers that are specifically working on this platform, and they're targeting another 1/3 on top of that. And that's equal by the number of engineers, by the way, that were working with Google. But it's meant to basically move us to a more advanced platform than we have right now with Command and Control. And that platform is also meant to serve both DIFM and DIY customers in the future.

是的。 Kevin，我們實際上從 3 次收購（Red Hawk、LifeShield 和 Defenders）中繼承了一些優秀的 IT 和專案工程師。但除此之外，自 Google 宣布以來，我們已經將專門從事該平台工作的工程師數量增加了一倍，並且他們的目標是在此基礎上再增加 1/3。順便說一句，這與與Google合作的工程師數量相當。但這基本上是為了讓我們轉向比現在的命令和控制更先進的平台。該平台也旨在為未來的 DIFM 和 DIY 客戶提供服務。

Our next question is from Gary Bisbee with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的加里·比斯比。

Jeff, I wonder if you could just be real clear with us because it's been difficult to know. What was revenue growth ex the accounting -- different accounting treatment for install revenue? If we pull that out of 2020, what was the revenue growth for the year? And what does 2021 guidance imply for revenue growth if that normalizing and that revenue not recurring? What's the clean number, both backwards and forwards?

傑夫，我想知道你能否對我們說清楚，因為這很難知道。不包括會計在內的收入成長是多少－安裝收入的不同會計處理？如果我們把這個時間推到 2020 年，那一年的收入成長是多少？如果這種情況正常化且收入不再重複出現，那麼 2021 年的指導對收入成長意味著什麼？向後和向前的乾淨數字是多少？

So forwards, there is about 7 points of revenue pressure that comes from the change associated with the ownership model. And backwards, a bit more complex because of the interplay with Defenders, with the Canada disposition and with the ownership model change. But I would point you to our install revenue and the predominant driver of our install revenue growth was more install revenue associated with the ownership model change.

因此，未來大約有 7 個百分點的收入壓力來自於所有權模式的變化。反過來，由於與捍衛者隊、加拿大的處置以及所有權模式變化的相互作用，情況變得更加複雜。但我想向您指出我們的安裝收入，我們安裝收入成長的主要驅動力是與所有權模式變化相關的更多安裝收入。

So if we just take the actual revenue, the midpoint of the guidance range, calculate the growth rate that implies at 7 points, and that's what the growth rate would imply? Or is that not? So I'm trying to think if that's clean.

那麼，如果我們只取實際收入（指導範圍的中點），計算 7 個點所隱含的成長率，這就是成長率所隱含的意思嗎？或者不是嗎？所以我想想想這是否乾淨。

Yes. Yes.

是的。是的。

Okay. Fair enough. And then on the -- 2 small ones. On the Google investment, the $150 million, do you have any more insight on timing of when you'd spend it? And what's CapEx versus OpEx? And the other small one, just you have had a couple of press releases out about this technology that could eliminate the -- or reduce the impact of the 3G conversion because people could just plug-and-play. Like what's the update on that? And what's implied in your guidance and cash flow for spending related to the conversion?

好的。很公平。然後是——2個小。關於 Google 的 1.5 億美元投資，您對於何時花掉這筆資金有更多的見解嗎？資本支出與營運支出是什麼？另一個小問題是，您已經發布了幾篇關於這項技術的新聞稿，該技術可以消除或減少 3G 轉換的影響，因為人們可以即插即用。比如說有什麼更新嗎？您對與轉換相關的支出的指導和現金流意味著什麼？

I'll take both of those, Gary, and then ask for Don to elaborate on the technology associated with the radio conversion. On Google, as a reminder, both parties agreed to invest an incremental $150 million in the partnership. So there is a total of $300 million. The Google funds can be used for marketing, product and employee training and are generally earmarked for those 3 categories. We haven't yet agreed with Google on the specific expenditures. We'll likely make a meaningful investment in the launch campaign, the ADT + Google launch campaign later this year and expect to invest an incremental $50 million. And that's built into our guide. On radio conversion, we started the year with 3.6 million conversions, shared an initial range of $200 million to $325 million net of revenue. Our replacement plans are essentially on pace. Despite the pandemic, we'll finish Q1 with about 1.3 million radios. Remaining new convert, we've updated the range to 225 million to 300 million. The majority of that will be spent this year. So the short answer on the radio conversion is that we're on track. And I'll ask Don to comment on your question related to the technology company we acquired called CellBounce.

加里，我會接受這兩個問題，然後請唐詳細說明與無線電轉換相關的技術。值得提醒的是，在Google方面，雙方同意在合作關係中追加投資 1.5 億美元。所以總共有3億美元。谷歌的資金可用於行銷、產品和員工培訓，通常專門用於這三個類別。我們尚未與谷歌就具體支出達成協議。我們可能會在今年稍後的發布活動（ADT + Google 發布活動）上進行有意義的投資，並預計將投資 5,000 萬美元。這已納入我們的指南中。在廣播轉換方面，我們年初的轉換次數為 360 萬次，初始淨收入範圍為 2 億至 3.25 億美元。我們的更換計劃基本上正在按計劃進行。儘管發生了大流行，我們仍將在第一季結束時擁有約 130 萬台收音機。對於剩下的新轉換者，我們已將範圍更新為 2.25 億至 3 億。其中大部分將在今年花費。因此，關於無線電轉換的簡短答案是，我們正在步入正軌。我將請 Don 對您提出的有關我們收購的名為 CellBounce 的技術公司的問題發表評論。

Sure. And a quick correction. I think Jim said 3.6 million to start off the year, which were actually 1.6 million to start off the year with, but -- so we're calling it Cell Bridge internally for our ADT recipients of the device, CellBounce externally because we do have an agreement with AT&T to provide this device for those elsewhere in the industry. But we have successfully tested this device, both in the lab and at a handful of homes. We are looking to go out and launch this, as we said on the last call, nationally this quarter. And we're exceptionally excited to do that and see how well it's looking with some of the panels that all the line systems that are particularly more difficult than others to be able to go to swap out the very OS. So we're very bullish on how it's going, and we're looking forward to the first quarter rollout.

當然。并快速糾正。我認為吉姆說年初要 360 萬，實際上年初時要 160 萬，但是 - 所以我們在內部將其稱為 Cell Bridge（對於設備的 ADT 接收者），在外部將其稱為 CellBounce，因為我們確實有與AT&T 達成協議，為業內其他公司提供該設備。但我們已經在實驗室和少數家庭中成功測試了該設備。正如我們在上次電話會議上所說，我們希望本季在全國推出這項產品。我們非常高興能夠做到這一點，並看看一些面板的效果如何，所有線路系統都比其他系統更難更換作業系統。因此，我們非常看好它的進展，並期待第一季的推出。

And then if I could sneak one more in, Jim. Since you become CEO, you've obviously pivoted hard towards investment, a flurry of partnerships. You invest a lot in commercial, the DIY, the ADT mobile stuff and obviously, Google. There's just been a lot of activity. What I hear from many of your investors is, while each one of these on their own makes sense and it's logical, we don't all understand exactly what the vision is, in particular, because you haven't really given any color on sort of what's the end game. What are you aiming for here? What is the return for ADT and its shareholders from this flurry of activity? I guess one of the challenges is, you haven't given any long-term targets so that we could assess your performance. And so I guess I want to put that to you as a comment. Certainly hear the optimism, but what does this all mean for revenue growth? 2 years, 3 years, 4 years down the road, what does it mean for profitability? What does it mean for cash flow? Because I just -- there is a lot of excitement, and certainly, we understand it. But profits have been stagnant for years, and we haven't seen revenue accelerate. And so it's just -- I think there's some frustration that it all sounds good, but we don't have a great sense what the return for the company and shareholders is from all this activity in the last 2 years. I don't mean that to sound critical, if it does. I'm just trying to get some color on where this is heading and maybe what some targets might be to help us understand the vision you're aiming for.

如果我能再偷偷溜進去一次，吉姆。自從你成為執行長以來，你顯然已經努力轉向投資和一系列合作夥伴關係。你在商業、DIY、ADT 行動產品以及谷歌方面投入了大量資金。剛剛有很多活動。我從你們的許多投資者那裡聽到的是，雖然每一項本身都有道理並且符合邏輯，但我們並不都完全理解願景是什麼，特別是因為你們並沒有真正給出任何顏色。遊戲是什麼。你來這裡的目的是什麼？ ADT 及其股東從這一系列活動中獲得了什麼回報？我想挑戰之一是，您沒有給出任何長期目標，以便我們可以評估您的表現。所以我想我想將其作為評論向您提出。當然聽到了樂觀情緒，但這對收入成長意味著什麼？ 2年、3年、4年，這對獲利意味著什麼？這對現金流意味著什麼？因為我──有很多興奮，當然，我們理解它。但利潤多年來一直停滯不前，我們也沒有看到收入加速成長。所以，我認為這聽起來不錯，但我們不太清楚過去兩年所有這些活動對公司和股東帶來的回報是什麼，這讓人有點沮喪。我的意思並不是說這聽起來很批評（如果確實如此）。我只是想了解事情的發展方向以及一些目標可能是什麼，以幫助我們理解您所追求的願景。

Yes. I'll talk a little bit about the vision from a high-level perspective. We're going to have a chance to elaborate a good bit on this in the Investor Day that we do later this year. I'll ask Jeff to weigh in here as well. But Gary, what might appear as a flurry of activity externally is all really engineering to get our organization positioned for capital efficient growth. I mentioned this earlier to -- when I was answering Pete's question, the work that we've done over the course of the last 24, 30 months has been to get the operational house in order; get attrition where it needs to be; get our revenue payback where it needs to be; set the pins from a marketing perspective to more efficiently acquire customers; develop partnerships, Google being central to that; to facilitate growth and then to really take advantage of these macro headwinds that are out there. And I think that it's -- in 2021, the evidence that those pins are set, and we're ready to knock them down is mid-teen RMR adds. I think over the course of the last 4 years or so, our CAGR on RMR adds was something like 3%. And we're talking in 2021 about the mid-teens, and that's before Google kicks in, in a major way in the second half and in 2022. Jeff, additional comments?

是的。我將從高層次的角度談談願景。我們將有機會在今年稍後舉行的投資者日上詳細闡述這一點。我也會請傑夫在這裡權衡一下。但是加里，外部看似一系列的活動實際上都是為了讓我們的組織實現資本高效增長而進行的。我之前在回答 Pete 的問題時提到過這一點，我們在過去 24、30 個月中所做的工作是讓營運中心井然有序；在需要的地方進行減員；讓我們的收入得到應有的回報；從行銷角度定位，更有效率獲客；發展合作關係，Google是其中的核心；促進成長，然後真正利用這些宏觀逆風。我認為，到 2021 年，這些固定目標已經確定，我們已經準備好將它們擊倒的證據是中位數的 RMR 增加。我認為在過去 4 年左右的時間裡，我們 RMR 的複合年增長率約為 3%。我們正在談論 2021 年的青少年群體，那是在谷歌介入之前，在下半年和 2022 年。

Yes, it's something we've spent significant time on internally. We -- after spending the first -- the 3 or 4 years or the past 3 or 4 years more focused on operational execution, our next chapter is going to be more about growth being more innovative, taking the customer experience to an even better place, leveraging our brand, especially in partnership with Google with further differentiating our frontline service capability, which nobody else has. And then building, as part of the innovation point, more of the technologies that further extend the realm of the various offerings that we provide for smart home and security together. And we think nobody is positioned to do this better than ADT is. And as Jim alluded to, we plan to hold an Investor Day later in the year and go through that in more detail, including some perspective as to exactly your question, what that means in terms of economics over time with some longer-term targets and objectives that goes with it.

是的，這是我們內部花了大量時間的事情。在度過了第一年、第三年或第四年或過去的三、四年之後，我們更加關注營運執行，我們的下一章將更專注於更具創新性的成長，將客戶體驗提升到更好的水平，利用我們的品牌，特別是與谷歌合作，進一步使我們的一線服務能力脫穎而出，這是其他人所不具備的。然後，作為創新點的一部分，建立更多技術，進一步擴展我們為智慧家庭和安全提供的各種產品的領域。我們認為沒有人比 ADT 更能做到這一點。正如吉姆所提到的，我們計劃在今年稍後舉行投資者日，並更詳細地討論這一問題，包括對您的問題的一些觀點，隨著時間的推移，這對經濟意味著什麼，以及一些長期目標和與之相伴的目標。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Manav Patnaik with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Manav Patnaik。

So just kind of a follow-up to Gary's question. I mean, the partnership with Google, so I think you kind of answered it in that last statement, but on a high level, you're just trying to get a foot into the door in the smart home and therefore, hopefully expand the TAM. Is that how we should think about the real benefits of this partnership?

這只是加里問題的後續。我的意思是，與Google的合作關係，所以我認為你在最後的聲明中回答了這個問題，但在較高的層面上，你只是想踏入智慧家庭的大門，因此，希望擴大 TAM 。我們該如何看待這種夥伴關係的真正好處？

Much more broadly than that, Manav. We think we can leverage Google to not get a foot in the smart home space, but to grow significantly and be a major player in the smart home space. I've mentioned this before, we're super excited about the hardware that Google brings. The ADT + Google branding is something that our marketing research reveals is pretty exciting, but I'm most excited about what the partnership does from an AI perspective, video analytics and data analytics perspective. We think that we can not only compete in the smart home space, but really be a -- with Google as a partner, a technology leader and provide customers services that don't exist today. That's all part of a second-generation offering, some of which will be available in the second half of this year, but will be launched when we have our own interactive platform built in-house, combined with Google hardware and video analytics to launch the next-generation 1/1/23.

比這更廣泛，馬納夫。我們認為，我們可以利用谷歌，不涉足智慧家庭領域，而是大幅成長並成為智慧家庭領域的主要參與者。我之前已經提到過，我們對谷歌帶來的硬體感到非常興奮。我們的行銷研究表明，ADT + Google 品牌非常令人興奮，但我最興奮的是這種合作夥伴關係從人工智慧角度、影片分析和數據分析角度所做的事情。我們認為，我們不僅可以在智慧家庭領域競爭，而且可以真正成為——與Google合作，成為技術領導者，並為客戶提供當今不存在的服務。這都是第二代產品的一部分，其中一些將在今年下半年推出，但將在我們內部建立自己的互動平台並結合Google硬體和影片分析來推出下一代 23 年 1 月 1 日。

Got it. And another broad question. The residential space, obviously, has been tough. And I think all the efforts you're doing make sense in order to grow better in that market, but commercial has always been the preferred area. And I'm just curious, like at some point down the road, you used the word pivot earlier. Like, is there a pivot to become just more exposed to commercial? Or is residential just such a big animal for you that, that's probably not something in the near future?

知道了。還有另一個廣泛的問題。顯然，住宅空間一直很艱難。我認為，為了在該市場取得更好的發展，你們所做的所有努力都是有意義的，但商業始終是首選領域。我只是很好奇，就像在未來的某個時刻，您之前使用了“樞軸”這個詞。例如，是否有一個轉向更多地接觸商業？或者住宅對你來說是一個大動物，以至於在不久的將來可能不會發生？

Yes. No. I wouldn't say it's not in our future. Commercial, we expect to return to growth in 2021 in commercial. I mentioned this in my prepared remarks, our backlog, both install and recurring revenue, are higher at the end of 2020 than at the end of 2019. The pipeline healthy. We've got incredible upside in some of the growing verticals, health care, education, government, critical infrastructure. Manav, we think the leadership team is outstanding. We provide the best service in the space. That's the most critical source of differentiation. And we expect to grow the commercial business in a capital-efficient way and get back to double-digit growth as we were prior to the pandemic.

是的。不，我不會說這不屬於我們的未來。商業方面，我們預計商業將在 2021 年恢復成長。我在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，我們的積壓訂單（無論是安裝量還是經常性收入）在 2020 年底都高於 2019 年底。我們在一些不斷增長的垂直行業、醫療保健、教育、政府、關鍵基礎設施方面擁有令人難以置信的優勢。馬納夫，我們認為領導團隊非常出色。我們提供業內最好的服務。這是差異化最關鍵的來源。我們預計將以資本效率高的方式發展商業業務，並恢復到疫情爆發前的兩位數成長。

Our next question is from Jeff Kessler with Imperial Capital.

我們的下一個問題來自帝國資本的傑夫凱斯勒。

It's ironic. I feel like [Obi-Wan], having my 2 pupils go right in front of me. The first question I have is on Defenders. We've talked a bit about Defenders today, but Defenders has been a growth company for basically its entire history regardless of what it was selling. And right now, it's focused just solely on security. And I'm wondering, given the fact that you've had -- we see the accounting adjustments having been made. What I want to know operationally, what is -- what are you doing to get Defenders? And have they been already -- has that group been already integrated into what we'll call the -- not just the interactive platform, but the -- being able to -- because they're able to sell, do they have and have they -- are they being trained on the IT level to be able to sell a new platform that you folks are going to be coming out with over the next couple of years? And how is this -- how is defenders going to come out in the wash since it hasn't -- doesn't come out in the accounting, but it should come out in the way the operations are handled?

很諷刺。我感覺就像[歐比王]，讓我的兩個學生走在我的前面。我的第一個問題是關於《捍衛者聯盟》的。我們今天討論了一些關於 Defenders 的事情，但 Defenders 基本上在整個歷史上都是一家成長型公司，無論它銷售什麼產品。目前，它只關注安全性。我想知道，考慮到我們已經進行了會計調整這一事實。我想知道的是，你們正在做什麼來獲得捍衛者聯盟？他們是否已經——該群體是否已經融入我們所說的——不僅僅是互動平台，而是——能夠——因為他們能夠銷售，他們是否擁有並擁有他們- 他們是否正在接受IT 級別的培訓，以便能夠銷售你們將在未來幾年推出的新平台？這是怎麼回事——防守者將如何擺脫困境，因為它沒有——沒有出現在會計中，但它應該出現在行動的處理方式中？

Yes. That's absolutely right. That's absolutely right, Jeff. The -- so the Defenders integration is going well. We're on track. Parts of the teams have been integrated into the ADT branch infrastructure already. We expect that the integration will be complete in the March, April time frame. We are leveraging all of the skills that the Defenders organization brought to our company in a way that's incredibly efficient. We're training the organization in the ADT processes, and they're doing well. We had started using our command panel -- Defenders had started using our command panel even prior to the acquisition, and now they're using the panel exclusively just like core ADT. In terms of the future and the products that will be integrating with Google, both Defenders and ADT technicians and customer care professionals will be trained on that new equipment and it will be standardized as part of our offering.

是的。這是絕對正確的。完全正確，傑夫。 - 所以捍衛者聯盟的整合進展順利。我們步入正軌。部分團隊已經整合到 ADT 分支基礎設施。我們預計整合將在三月、四月的時間範圍內完成。我們正在以極其高效的方式利用捍衛者組織為我們公司帶來的所有技能。我們正在對組織進行 ADT 流程培訓，他們做得很好。我們已經開始使用我們的命令面板——防御者甚至在收購之前就開始使用我們的命令面板，現在他們像核心 ADT 一樣專門使用該面板。就未來以及將與 Google 整合的產品而言，Defenders 和 ADT 技術人員以及客戶服務專業人員都將接受關於新設備的培訓，並且它將作為我們產品的一部分進行標準化。

And Jeff, one thing I'd add. We talk about this internally periodically. And even if you look in our deck on Slide 10, where we show our view as to RMR add growth. We list on that page 4 factors. But the point I want to make is, there is a lot of factors, and it's difficult to decompose the factors because they interplay with one another. So it's the macro drivers. It changes to our pricing model. It's the financing stuff we've done to simplify our offer advertising effect and install efficiency analytics. But included in those internal initiatives is just the sharing of best practices between legacy ADT and legacy Defenders. So we would struggle to tell you precisely how much of the 15% growth in RMR adds that we're guiding to for next year comes from that, but it's an important ingredient into that mix overall.

傑夫，我要補充一件事。我們定期在內部討論這個問題。即使您查看幻燈片 10 上的幻燈片，我們也展示了我們對 RMR 成長的看法。我們在該頁列出了 4 個因素。但我想說的是，因素很多，而且很難分解，因為它們之間是相互作用的。所以這是宏觀驅動因素。它改變了我們的定價模式。這是我們為簡化我們的廣告效果和安裝效率分析所做的融資工作。但這些內部計劃中只包括在舊 ADT 和舊 Defender 之間共享最佳實踐。因此，我們很難準確地告訴您，我們指導明年的 RMR 15% 成長中有多少來自於此，但它是整個組合中的一個重要組成部分。

Okay. Great. Second question, a follow-up is, having gone through the earnings results of a lot of the industrial companies in security that I cover, Allegion and ASSA ABLOY and those guys. Clearly, they are looking for a -- still a kind of a slow first half of 2021, hopefully, picking up in the second half. I'm not going to call it a vacation, but your commercial industrial guys who were killing it 2 years ago, obviously, let's call them, they had a vacation where part of -- while they could not get on the premises or they were able -- unable to finalize deals that were put off. What was -- in the interim period, what have you done with the commercial industrial -- your commercial industrial group to actually get them ready to be accelerating out of the box and not lose a step relative to some of your other large competitors so that when the market does come back, they will -- whether it's national accounts or whether it's specific large enterprise installations, you will be ready to essentially take over that growth that you had before and not be enough far behind these other companies whose only business is commercial and industrial.

好的。偉大的。第二個問題是，我回顧了我所報導的許多安全工業公司的獲利結果，例如 Allegion 和 ASSA ABLOY 等。顯然，他們希望 2021 年上半年仍然緩慢，但希望下半年回升。我不會稱其為假期，但是兩年前正在扼殺牠的商業工業人員，顯然，讓我們稱呼他們吧，他們度過了一個假期，其中一部分 - 雖然他們無法到達場所，或者他們能夠——無法完成被推遲的交易。在過渡時期，你對商業工業做了什麼——你的商業工業集團實際上讓他們準備好加速開箱即用，而不是相對於其他一些大型競爭對手落後一步，這樣當市場確實回來時，他們會——無論是國民帳戶還是特定的大型企業安裝，你將準備好基本上接管你之前的成長，並且不會遠遠落後於那些唯一業務是的其他公司商業和工業。

Yes. Four key areas, Jeff, that we took the opportunity when we couldn't have access to customer premises to really bolster up. The first is training. I don't think that we expended as much energy in training in the commercial space in any year like we did in 2020, and so we doubled down in a significant way in employee development. Number two is recruiting. From the start, we played the long game. And if organizations weren't as healthy overall as ADT, we took the opportunity to recruit some excellent talent in 2020, both at the technician level and the leadership level. The third is integration. We've done a number of tuck-in acquisitions, Red Hawk a couple of years ago, and so we cleaned up the house from an integration perspective. And then lastly, we advanced the cause on IT systems and IT integration. So we feel good about the positioning of that business and, as I mentioned earlier, expect 2021 to be a really good year in commercial.

是的。傑夫，當我們無法進入客戶場所時，我們抓住了四個關鍵領域來真正加強支持。首先是培訓。我認為我們在商業領域的培訓上花費的精力沒有像 2020 年那麼多，因此我們在員工發展方面大力加倍努力。第二是招募。從一開始，我們就打了一場持久戰。如果組織整體不如 ADT 健康，我們會趁機在 2020 年招募一些優秀人才，無論是技術人員層面或領導階層。三是融合。幾年前，我們進行了多次收購，包括紅鷹收購，因此我們從整合的角度進行了清理工作。最後，我們推進了IT系統和IT整合事業。因此，我們對該業務的定位感到滿意，正如我之前提到的，預計 2021 年將是商業領域非常好的一年。

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the call back to management for closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，問答環節已經結束。我想將電話轉回給管理階層，讓其結束語。

Thank you, operator. In closing, I'd like to again extend my appreciation to our employees and our dealers. 2020 was a unique year, an extraordinary year. I'm completely proud to be associated with all of you. Thanks to everyone for joining our call this evening. As you heard, we're exceedingly optimistic about ADT's future, looking forward to the growth ahead. And have a great night, everybody. Thanks.

謝謝你，接線生。最後，我想再次向我們的員工和經銷商表示感謝。 2020年是不平凡的一年，不平凡的一年。我非常自豪能夠與你們所有人合作。感謝大家今晚加入我們的電話會議。正如您所聽到的，我們對 ADT 的未來非常樂觀，並期待未來的成長。祝大家有個美好的夜晚。謝謝。

This concludes today's conference. ADT thanks you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.

今天的會議到此結束。 ADT感謝您的參與。此時您可以斷開線路。