ADT Inc (ADT) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Greetings, and welcome to the ADT Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call.

各位好，歡迎參加 ADT 2022 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Elizabeth Landers, Senior Director of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

提醒各位，本次會議將被錄音。現在我很榮幸介紹本次會議主持人：投資人關係資深總監 Elizabeth Landers。謝謝。您可以開始了。

Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining ADT's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. Speaking on today's call will be ADT's President and CEO, James DeVries; and our EVP and CFO, Ken Porpora. After the prepared remarks, we'll take analyst questions. Also joining us for Q&A are Don Young, EVP and Chief Operating Officer; and Jill Greer, SVP of Finance and Investor Relations.

謝謝接線員，各位早安。感謝各位參加 ADT 2022 年第四季暨全年財報電話會議。今天的電話會議將由 ADT 總裁兼執行長 James DeVries，以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Ken Porpora 發言。管理層事先準備的發言結束後，我們將開放分析師提問。另有 Don Young（執行副總裁兼營運長）與 Jill Greer（財務與投資人關係資深副總裁）一同參與問答。

Earlier this morning, we issued a press release and slide presentation of our financial results. These materials are available on our website at investor.adt.com. Before we start, I do need to mention that today's remarks include forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Some of the factors that may cause differences are described in our SEC filings. We'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures on the call. The most directly comparable GAAP measures along with a reconciliation of those measures are available on our website at investor.adt.com.

今天稍早，我們已發布新聞稿與財務結果簡報投影片。相關資料可於我們的網站 investor.adt.com 取得。在開始之前，我必須提及，今天的發言包含前瞻性陳述，代表我們對未來事件的信念或預期。這些前瞻性陳述受風險與不確定性影響，可能導致實際結果出現重大差異。可能造成差異的部分因素已載於我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。我們也將在本次電話會議中討論非 GAAP 財務衡量指標。最直接可比較的 GAAP 指標以及相關調節表，亦可於 investor.adt.com 取得。

And with that, I'll turn the call over to Jim.

接下來，我把電話交給 Jim。

Thank you, Elizabeth. Good morning. Thank you, operator, and thank you to everyone for joining us on our earnings call today.

謝謝你，Elizabeth。各位早安。也謝謝接線員，並感謝各位今天參加我們的財報電話會議。

ADT released our fourth quarter and full year results this morning, 2022 was a very strong year as we delivered our financial commitments strengthened our foundation and advance the transformation of our business from a traditional security company towards an innovative business poised to accelerate growth in new markets. I'd like to begin by sharing some of our growth highlights.

ADT 今早公布了第四季與全年業績。2022 年是非常強勁的一年，我們達成了財務承諾、強化了基礎，並推進了業務轉型：從傳統的安防公司，邁向具創新能力、可在新市場加速成長的企業。我想先分享一些成長亮點。

For the full year, we grew revenues, earnings and cash flows. Our total revenue was up 21% to $6.4 billion, generating adjusted net income of $218 million or $0.24 per diluted share. We also posted improved adjusted EBITDA, up 11% year-over-year and over $550 million of adjusted free cash flow, up 20% year-over-year. Importantly, we met our commitments to our shareholders delivering total revenue and adjusted EBITDA at or above the top end of our full year guidance and met our adjusted free cash flow guidance.

就全年而言，我們的營收、獲利與現金流均成長。總營收年增 21% 至 64 億美元，產生調整後淨利 2.18 億美元，或稀釋後每股 0.24 美元。我們的調整後 EBITDA 亦改善，年增 11%，並創造超過 5.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流，年增 20%。更重要的是，我們履行了對股東的承諾：全年總營收與調整後 EBITDA 達到或高於全年財測區間上緣，並達成調整後自由現金流指引。

As part of growing the business, we've also focused on diversifying our revenue streams. To this end, during the last several years, we've expanded our commercial business as well as acquired a residential solar business. These actions resulted in meaningful TAM expansion in both of these fast-growing markets. Our commercial revenues grew 10% for the full year, and our solar business ended just under $800 million in revenues for 2022. For yet another consecutive quarter, our recurring monthly revenue balance, or RMR, was at a record level, and we maintained our record revenue payback of 2.1 years. Customer retention also continued to improve with gross attrition at an all-time low of 12.5%.

在推動業務成長的同時，我們也專注於分散營收來源。為此，過去幾年我們擴大了商用業務，並收購了住宅太陽能業務。這些行動使我們在兩個快速成長市場中的 TAM（可服務總市場）顯著擴大。我們的商用營收全年成長 10%，而太陽能業務在 2022 年的營收接近 8 億美元。又一個連續季度，我們的每月經常性收入餘額（RMR）創下新高，且維持 2.1 年的創紀錄營收回收期。客戶留存也持續改善，總流失率降至歷史新低 12.5%。

In addition, underscored by a record revenue payback level, capital efficiency is improving our free cash generation allowing us to invest in innovation and improve our balance sheet. We've now reduced our leverage ratio to below 4. We delivered these impressive results while simultaneously driving transformation. We're effectively managing our business as we've transitioned from the traditional owning the alarm company toward a broader vision of owning the entire smart and secure ecosystem with our expanded commercial solar and mobile offerings, ADT is the single provider that can meet our customers' needs at home, at work and on the go.

此外，在創紀錄的營收回收期水準支撐下，資本效率正在提升我們的自由現金產生能力，使我們得以投資創新並改善資產負債表。我們目前已將槓桿比率降至 4 以下。我們在推動轉型的同時交出這些亮眼成果。隨著我們從傳統「擁有警報公司」的定位，轉向更宏觀的願景——「擁有完整的智慧且安全的生態系」——並擴展商用、太陽能與行動端產品，ADT 成為能在家中、工作場所與外出途中滿足客戶需求的單一供應商。

I'd like to highlight specifically the strategies we're implementing to address our customers' needs in the home. With the launch of our ADT+ platform and next-gen hardware expected this year we are putting all the pieces in place to expand (inaudible) choices for our customers.

我想特別強調我們為滿足居家客戶需求所採取的策略。隨著 ADT+ 平台的推出，以及預計今年上市的下一代硬體，我們正把所有拼圖就位，以擴大（聽不清）為客戶提供的選擇。

Our vision includes customers choosing which distribution channel best meets their individual needs including choosing not only our signature in-home options but expanding other customer alternatives and choices, virtually assisted online and retail options. We'll also be customizing our pricing and packages, offering customers options that include attractive entry price points with greater contract flexibility. This allows our customers to determine the right combination of personalized options that will provide them with the best value for their needs.

我們的願景包括讓客戶選擇最符合其個別需求的通路：不僅可選擇我們標誌性的到府方案，也能擴展其他替代方案與選擇，例如線上虛擬協助與零售通路。我們也將客製化定價與方案組合，提供包含具吸引力的入門價格點與更高合約彈性的選項。這使客戶能決定最合適的個人化組合，以其需求獲得最佳價值。

Another choice customers will have is customizing installation and service. We're leveraging advanced technology to give customers more virtual options for sales, service and installation. To date, our virtual assistance initiatives have been a huge success as well as valued alternative to our customers, allowing ADT to deliver higher quality services at a lower cost. ADT partnerships also continue to play an important role in our transformation and 2 of our most significant partnerships are with Google and State Farm.

客戶的另一項選擇是客製化安裝與服務。我們正運用先進技術，為客戶提供更多在銷售、服務與安裝方面的虛擬選項。迄今為止，我們的虛擬協助計畫非常成功，也成為客戶重視的替代方案，使 ADT 能以更低成本提供更高品質的服務。ADT 的合作夥伴關係也持續在我們的轉型中扮演重要角色，其中兩項最重要的合作夥伴是 Google 與 State Farm。

In distinctive yet complementary ways, both of these partnerships are expected to broaden our distribution reach and our customer offerings, giving customers even more reasons to choose ADT. Google Nest products have proven to be a great addition to our ADT offerings. After nearly a year end market, our attachment rates for video doorbells have doubled, and we're now selling approximately 30% more cameras per home with the Google Nest product. We expect to see more uplift in device sales as we move through this year. We've just rolled out the integrated ADT+ app experience for our new self-install products which integrates the Google Nest product set.

這兩項合作以各自獨特但互補的方式，預期將擴大我們的通路觸及與客戶產品組合，讓客戶有更多理由選擇 ADT。Google Nest 產品已證明是 ADT 產品組合的絕佳補充。上市近一年後，我們的影像門鈴搭售率已翻倍，且透過 Google Nest 產品，我們目前每戶銷售的攝影機數量約增加 30%。隨著今年推進，我們預期裝置銷售將進一步提升。我們剛推出整合式 ADT+ App 體驗，適用於新的自助安裝產品，並整合 Google Nest 產品組合。

We launched this just a few weeks ago, an exciting accomplishment, and we expect to do the same for our Pro Install products later this year. To support this shift, we've recently launched a new advertising campaign to increase the continued awareness and differentiation of our new capabilities, further igniting customer demand.

我們在幾週前才剛推出，這是一項令人振奮的成果；我們也預期今年稍晚會在專業安裝（Pro Install）產品上做同樣的整合。為支持這項轉變，我們近期推出新的廣告活動，以提升市場對我們新能力的持續認知與差異化，進一步點燃客戶需求。

The success of our Google Nest products is also driving substantial increases in our installation revenue per subscriber, which in turn is improving our SAC efficiency. The Google Nest product addition simply said, provides us with a higher-quality customer offering. Complementing this success is our State Farm partnership with an existing customer base of approximately 14 million homeowners, State Farm has the potential to provide a significant increase to ADT's overall reach. The partnership will also facilitate State Farm customers obtaining access to ADT's best-in-class protection. Together, ADT and State Farm are revolutionizing the value proposition for home insurance policyholders by leveraging smart home technology to detect and mitigate losses related to water, fire, intrusion and other homeowner risks.

Google Nest 產品的成功也帶動我們每位訂戶的安裝收入大幅增加，進而改善我們的 SAC（訂戶取得成本）效率。簡而言之，加入 Google Nest 產品讓我們能提供更高品質的客戶方案。與此成功相輔相成的是我們與 State Farm 的合作；State Farm 既有客戶基礎約 1,400 萬名屋主，具備顯著提升 ADT 整體觸及的潛力。該合作也將促使 State Farm 客戶取得 ADT 一流的防護服務。ADT 與 State Farm 正透過智慧家庭技術偵測並降低與漏水、火災、入侵及其他屋主風險相關的損失，從而革新住宅保險保戶的價值主張。

We expect to begin launching in a limited number of states, our first exclusive State Farm offer during the first half of this year and anticipate growth from this partnership to be reflected into 2024. We had many things to be proud about throughout 2022 and during the fourth quarter. And as we begin this year, we're poised to navigate a challenging economic environment. While the macro environment remains uncertain, our business model has consistently demonstrated it is recession-resilient with approximately 70% of our total revenue coming from recurring revenue streams. Home improvement spending as a percent of disposable income remains at record levels, translating into stronger demand for our products.

我們預期將於今年上半年先在少數州開始推出第一個 State Farm 獨家方案的有限度上線，並預期此合作帶來的成長將在 2024 年反映出來。2022 年以及第四季，我們有許多值得自豪的成果。隨著今年展開，我們已準備好在具挑戰性的經濟環境中前行。儘管總體環境仍不確定，我們的商業模式一向展現出抗衰退韌性，約 70% 的總營收來自經常性收入來源。居家改善支出占可支配所得的比重仍處於歷史高位，轉化為對我們產品更強勁的需求。

Within our Consumer and Small Business segment, or CSB, I'm really pleased with the drivers we're seeing for increased customer stickiness, more devices per home, higher upfront customer investments, remarkable credit score mix and higher video take rates all bode well for our future. While the demand environment appears to be steady, we're still ensuring that if we experience any material changes in demand, we're staying nimble and able to move quickly.

在我們的消費者與小型企業（Consumer and Small Business，CSB）部門中，我對我們所看到的提升客戶黏著度的驅動因素感到非常滿意：每戶更多裝置、更高的客戶前期投入、優異的信用分數組合，以及更高的影像方案採用率，這些都為我們的未來帶來正面訊號。雖然需求環境看起來穩定，我們仍確保一旦需求出現任何重大變化，我們能保持靈活並迅速應對。

To that end, we're streamlining our cost structure and our CSB segment. This mirrors similar actions made last year in both our commercial and solar segments, this streamlining will allow us to better focus our investments in growth and innovation while improving our speed to market and ensuring that more of our revenue growth drops to the bottom line. We're also navigating the challenging interest rate environment we face. In the consumer business, higher rates affect attrition and are actually a net positive on this important metric given fewer relocations for existing customers.

為此，我們正在精簡我們的成本結構以及我們的 CSB 事業部門。這與去年我們在商業與太陽能部門所採取的類似行動一致；透過這項精簡，我們將能更聚焦於成長與創新的投資，同時提升上市速度，並確保更多的營收成長能直接反映在最終獲利上。我們也正在因應目前充滿挑戰的利率環境。在消費者業務方面，較高的利率會影響流失率；而就這項重要指標而言，較高利率實際上帶來淨正面影響，因為現有客戶搬遷的情況減少。

Higher interest rates also influenced our solar business, where most purchases are financed through long-term low interest loans. This impacts both sales as customers are seeing higher rates year-over-year and also expenses as any cost to buy down the rate gets passed through to us. And of course, the biggest potential impact could be on our cash interest. And fortunately, most of our variable rate debt is hedged.

較高的利率也影響了我們的太陽能業務，因為多數購買是透過長期低利率貸款融資。這同時影響銷售（客戶看到利率逐年上升）以及費用（任何為降低利率而產生的成本都會轉嫁給我們）。當然，最大的潛在影響可能在於我們的現金利息支出。所幸的是，我們大部分的浮動利率債務都已進行避險。

This has underscored our intent, which we shared at our Investor Day last year to actively reduce our debt levels. Our net leverage ratio at the end of 2022 was 3.9, a meaningful improvement from 4.4 just a year ago. Our goal is to get that under 3x by the end of 2025, consistent with our long-term financial plan. The final item we are focused on is the performance in our solar business. We've analyzed the business from top to bottom, instituting changes to improve the overall operation, customer experience and financial outcomes.

這也凸顯了我們的意圖——我們在去年投資人日已分享，將積極降低負債水準。2022 年底我們的淨槓桿比率為 3.9，較一年前的 4.4 有顯著改善。我們的目標是在 2025 年底前將其降至 3 倍以下，與我們的長期財務計畫一致。我們關注的最後一項重點是太陽能業務的表現。我們已自上而下分析該業務，並推動各項變革，以改善整體營運、客戶體驗與財務成果。

As part of this effort, we appointed longtime ADT veteran, Jamie Haenggi as our new Executive Vice President of Solar leading this growing segment. While these changes have improved results in ADT Solar, we know we still have work ahead of us to drive and sustain the level of performance we expect this segment of our business to deliver.

作為這項努力的一部分，我們任命資深 ADT 老將 Jamie Haenggi 擔任新的太陽能執行副總裁，領導這個成長中的部門。雖然這些變革已改善 ADT Solar 的成果，但我們知道仍有工作要做，以推動並維持我們期望該業務部門能交付的績效水準。

So in closing, we're optimistic for 2023. We have a recession resilient business model and a plan to mitigate the challenges we may face in these uncertain economic times. We have 2 meaningful consumer growth catalysts and our partnerships with Google and State Farm and line of sight to growing revenues, earnings and cash flows in the year ahead. Our commercial business is thriving, and we have action plans in place to capitalize on the growth available to us in the solar market.

因此，總結來說，我們對 2023 年保持樂觀。我們擁有具抗衰退韌性的商業模式，並有計畫在這些不確定的經濟時期緩解可能面臨的挑戰。我們有兩項重要的消費者成長催化劑，以及與 Google 和 State Farm 的合作夥伴關係，並清楚可見在未來一年推動營收、獲利與現金流成長的路徑。我們的商業業務表現強勁，且已制定行動計畫，以把握太陽能市場帶來的成長機會。

We have a strong plan and commitment to meeting both our 2023 objectives and the 2025 goals we laid out at Investor Day just a year ago. I will now turn the call over to our CFO, Ken Porpora, who will take you through the details of our financial results, including guidance for 2023.

我們有一個強而有力的計畫，並承諾達成 2023 年的目標，以及僅在一年前投資人日所提出的 2025 年目標。接下來我將把電話會議交給我們的財務長 Ken Porpora，他將帶各位了解我們財務結果的細節，包括 2023 年的財測指引。

Thank you, Jim, and thank you, everyone, for joining our call today.

謝謝你，Jim，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的電話會議。

As Jim mentioned, we have delivered on our financial objectives for 2022 and have clear momentum across each of our business segments. I'm excited with these results delivered by our team. Total company revenue was $1.6 billion for the quarter and $6.4 billion for the full year, up 21% versus prior year, including the benefit of our solar acquisition. Excluding solar, our revenue grew approximately 7% in 2022. Our recurring monthly revenue, or RMR, from our subscriber rates grew to $374 million or up 4% year-over-year, a record for the company and a strong reflection of the benefits of our higher average pricing, growth initiatives and improved customer retention.

如 Jim 所提到的，我們已達成 2022 年的財務目標，並在各個業務部門都展現出明確的動能。我對團隊交出的這些成果感到振奮。本季公司總營收為 16 億美元，全年為 64 億美元，較去年成長 21%，其中包含太陽能併購帶來的效益。若排除太陽能，2022 年我們的營收約成長 7%。我們來自訂戶費率的每月經常性收入（RMR）成長至 3.74 億美元，年增 4%，創公司新高，充分反映我們較高的平均定價、成長計畫以及客戶留存改善所帶來的效益。

This stronger revenue translated into higher adjusted EBITDA, which for the full year was $2.45 billion, up 11% versus prior year. Adjusted net income was $92 million or $0.10 per share in the fourth quarter, an improvement from a loss of $25 million last year. For the full year, we delivered adjusted net income of $218 million or $0.24 per share, representing our first full year positive adjusted net income since IPO.

更強勁的營收帶動調整後 EBITDA 提升，全年為 24.5 億美元，較去年成長 11%。第四季調整後淨利為 9,200 萬美元（每股 0.10 美元），較去年同期 2,500 萬美元的虧損有所改善。全年我們交出調整後淨利 2.18 億美元（每股 0.24 美元），這是自 IPO 以來首次全年調整後淨利轉正。

Moving to our segment highlights. Our Consumer and Small Business, or CSB, segment delivered total revenue of $1.1 billion in the fourth quarter. And for the full year, this segment delivered $4.4 billion in revenue, an increase of 6% or $233 million versus last year. This performance was driven primarily by a 5% increase in monitoring and related services revenue resulting from higher average pricing, subscriber growth and improved customer retention that I referenced earlier. CSB Adjusted EBITDA increased by $204 million or 10% for the full year and was driven by the increased revenue combined with cost efficiencies, EBITDA margin in 2022 expanded year-over-year by 200 basis points. Our virtual service program is continuing to drive high levels of customer satisfaction and significant cost savings.

接著看各部門重點。我們的消費者與小型企業（CSB）部門第四季總營收為 11 億美元。全年該部門營收為 44 億美元，較去年增加 6% 或 2.33 億美元。此表現主要由監控及相關服務營收成長 5% 所帶動，原因包括較高的平均定價、訂戶成長以及我先前提到的客戶留存改善。CSB 調整後 EBITDA 全年增加 2.04 億美元或 10%，主要來自營收增加與成本效率提升；2022 年 EBITDA 利潤率年增擴大 200 個基點。我們的虛擬服務計畫持續帶來高水準的客戶滿意度與顯著的成本節省。

Since launch in 2021, we have completed over 1 million virtual assistance appointments. Nearly 40% of all service requests in 2022 were satisfied virtually, which drove a reduction in net service cost of 8% despite year-over-year growth in our subscriber base.

自 2021 年推出以來，我們已完成超過 100 萬次的虛擬協助預約。2022 年所有服務需求中近 40% 以虛擬方式完成，儘管訂戶基礎年增，仍推動淨服務成本降低 8%。

Strong demand for the Google Nest products has been an accelerator for our SAC efficiency and a record revenue payback of 2.1 years. Just a year ago, our revenue payback was 2.3 years. Our installation revenue in our direct residential business exited Q4 over $1,300 per home, up 21% year-over-year.

Google Nest 產品的強勁需求加速提升我們的 SAC 效率，並帶來創紀錄的 2.1 年營收回收期。就在一年前，我們的營收回收期為 2.3 年。我們直營住宅業務的安裝收入在第四季末每戶超過 1,300 美元，年增 21%。

Turning to our Commercial segment. We delivered total revenue of $328 million in the fourth quarter, up 15% versus prior year. And for the full year, the commercial team delivered $1.2 billion in revenue. Our commercial sales and installation revenue was strong in the fourth quarter, and we are beginning to turn the backlog from earlier in the year to revenue. Installation backlog remains robust at $420 million, providing a continued pipeline for future revenue and margin. This strong revenue performance drove adjusted EBITDA of $127 million for the year, up 32% with expanded EBITDA margins for both the quarter and full year.

再看商業部門。我們第四季總營收為 3.28 億美元，較去年成長 15%。全年商業團隊營收為 12 億美元。我們第四季的商業銷售與安裝收入表現強勁，且我們開始將年初累積的訂單積壓轉化為營收。安裝訂單積壓仍然強勁，達 4.20 億美元，為未來營收與利潤率提供持續的管線。這樣的強勁營收表現帶動全年調整後 EBITDA 達 1.27 億美元，成長 32%，且本季與全年 EBITDA 利潤率皆有所擴張。

I am very pleased with the momentum we have in this segment. Our Solar segment posted a revenue of $200 million in the fourth quarter and $786 million for the full year. As Jim mentioned, we're taking actions to improve operating margins in our solar business including improvements in scheduling and labor planning, workforce rightsizing and pricing adjustments. We expect these actions to drive improvement in profitability in 2023.

我對該部門的動能感到非常滿意。我們的太陽能部門第四季營收為 2.00 億美元，全年為 7.86 億美元。如 Jim 所提到，我們正採取行動改善太陽能業務的營運利潤率，包括改善排程與人力規劃、調整人力規模，以及價格調整。我們預期這些行動將在 2023 年帶動獲利能力改善。

Turning our attention to cash flow. Adjusted free cash flow was $269 million in the fourth quarter and $558 million for the full year, in line with our guidance range and up 20% versus prior year. Strong EBITDA growth in our CSB segment and improved capital efficiency helped us overcome a shortfall in our solar segment. Our improved efficiency enabled us to grow our ending RMR by 4% with a 12% year-over-year decline in subscriber acquisition spend, which you can see in our record 2.1 year revenue payback. We have also been focused on strengthening our balance sheet. Our actions this year have driven our leverage below 4x, an important step in our path to reduce that ratio at or below 3x by the end of 2025.

接著把焦點轉向現金流。第四季調整後自由現金流為 2.69 億美元，全年為 5.58 億美元，符合我們的指引區間，且較去年成長 20%。CSB 部門強勁的 EBITDA 成長與資本效率改善，協助我們克服太陽能部門的不足。我們效率的提升，使我們在訂戶取得支出年減 12% 的情況下，仍能將期末 RMR 提升 4%，這也反映在我們創紀錄的 2.1 年營收回收期。我們也持續強化資產負債表。今年的行動已將槓桿降至 4 倍以下，這是我們在 2025 年底前將該比率降至 3 倍或以下的重要一步。

Our net leverage ratio now stands at 3.9x, down from 4.4x at year-end 2021. We expect to reduce our net debt balance by more than $200 million this year. As part of this effort, we have given notice to holders that we will repay the upcoming 700 million 2023 maturity with the 600 million senior secured Term Loan A facility we closed on last year, along with cash on hand. Following this repayment, we have no meaningful maturities left this year and will turn our focus to addressing the $750 million due next year with manageable debt maturities, limited variable rate exposure and our strong recurring revenue mix we are well positioned against rising interest rates.

我們的淨槓桿比率目前為 3.9 倍，低於 2021 年底的 4.4 倍。我們預期今年將把淨負債餘額降低超過 2 億美元。作為此努力的一部分，我們已通知持有人，我們將以去年完成的 6 億美元優先擔保 A 期定期貸款（Term Loan A）額度，加上手上現金，償還即將到期的 7 億美元 2023 年到期債務。完成此償還後，我們今年將不再有具重大意義的到期債務，並將把重點轉向處理明年到期的 7.5 億美元。憑藉可控的債務到期結構、有限的浮動利率曝險，以及強勁的經常性收入組合，我們已具備良好條件因應利率上升。

And finally, turning to guidance. We expect momentum in all segments of our business to overcome macro trends and result in growth in revenue, earnings and cash flows in 2023. More specifically, we expect total revenue of $6.6 billion to $6.85 billion, representing growth of approximately 5% at the midpoint. With margin expansion in all 3 segments, this top line growth translates to adjusted EBITDA of $2.525 billion to $2.625 billion, also representing growth of approximately 5% at the midpoint and in a newly added guidance metric, we are also forecasting adjusted earnings per share of $0.30 to $0.40 for the year versus $0.24 in 2022.

最後，談到財測指引。我們預期業務各個分部的動能將足以克服總體趨勢，並在 2023 年帶動營收、獲利與現金流成長。更具體而言，我們預期總營收為 66 億至 68.5 億美元，以中位數計約成長 5%。隨著三個分部的利潤率皆擴張，這項營收成長將轉化為調整後 EBITDA 介於 25.25 億至 26.25 億美元，同樣以中位數計約成長 5%；此外，在新增的指引衡量指標中，我們也預測全年調整後每股盈餘為 0.30 至 0.40 美元，相較於 2022 年的 0.24 美元。

To help with the transition for modeling EBITDA to EPS, and we'd like to provide some additional detail on selected 2023 expenses. We expect our G&A expense to decline by more than $200 million year-over-year as we continue to see the benefits from wind-down of purchase-related accounting. However, this G&A benefit will almost entirely offset by the combination of higher book interest expense and higher tax expense. For modeling purposes, we are using a 28% tax rate assumption.

為了協助從以 EBITDA 建模過渡到 EPS，我們想就 2023 年部分費用項目提供更多細節。我們預期一般及行政（G&A）費用將較去年同期下降超過 2 億美元，因為我們持續看到與收購相關會計處理逐步結束所帶來的效益。然而，這項 G&A 的效益幾乎將被較高的帳面利息費用與較高的稅費支出之組合所完全抵銷。就建模而言，我們採用 28% 的稅率假設。

Turning to cash flow. We expect adjusted free cash flow in 2023 of $525 million to $625 million, which includes a roughly $180 million year-over-year headwind from cash interest. However, we do have a meaningful portion of our variable rate debt hedged with the benefit of the hedge realized outside of adjusted free cash flow. At current rates, those interest rate swaps are expected to be approximately $75 million benefit to financing cash flow for 2023. As a result, our adjusted free cash flow, including the benefit of interest rate swaps is expected to be $600 million to $700 million or growth of approximately 20% at the midpoint. And you will recall that our quarterly cash flows aren't even for a variety of reasons particularly the timing of interest payments, which are much higher in the first and third quarters, with the first quarter typically the lowest cash-generating quarter for ADT. As an example, for the full year 2022, our adjusted free cash flow grew by 20% year-over-year to $558 million, while the first quarter of 2022 was negative.

接著談現金流。我們預期 2023 年調整後自由現金流為 5.25 億至 6.25 億美元，其中包含現金利息較去年同期約 1.8 億美元的不利因素。不過，我們有相當一部分浮動利率債務已進行避險，而避險效益是在調整後自由現金流之外反映。以目前利率水準來看，這些利率交換預期在 2023 年將為融資現金流帶來約 7,500 萬美元的效益。因此，包含利率交換效益在內的調整後自由現金流，預期為 6 億至 7 億美元，以中位數計約成長 20%。你也會記得，由於多種原因（特別是利息支付時點），我們的季度現金流並不平均；利息支付在第一與第三季高得多，而第一季通常是 ADT 現金產生最低的季度。舉例而言，2022 全年我們的調整後自由現金流年增 20% 至 5.58 億美元，但 2022 年第一季為負值。

As we transition to Q&A, I'd like to share my thanks to our employees and dealer partners for all they have done to enable our progress and these results. I am confident that we are on a path to achieve our 2023 guidance illustrating continued progress towards our 2025 long-term goals. Operator, please open up the call to questions.

在進入問答之前，我想向我們的員工與經銷商夥伴致謝，感謝他們為推動我們的進展與達成這些成果所做的一切。我有信心我們正走在達成 2023 年指引的道路上，這也展現我們持續朝 2025 年長期目標邁進。接線員，請開放提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（接線員指示）

Our first question comes from the line of George Tong with Goldman Sachs.

我們的第一個問題來自高盛（Goldman Sachs）的 George Tong。

You have plans to launch offers to state foreign policyholders in select markets in 2Q of this year. Can you discuss the timeline for when you expect to more broadly launch State Farm? And what ballpark the impact you expect this will have on revenue and free cash flow performance?

你們計畫在今年第二季於部分市場推出面向 State Farm 保戶的方案。能否談談你們預期何時會更廣泛地推出 State Farm？以及你們預期這將對營收與自由現金流表現帶來多大幅度的影響（大致區間）？

Thanks, George. It's Jim. I appreciate the first question here. At a high level, just to set the question up the vision for the State Farm relationship is to really transform homeowners insurance from purely restoration to include prediction and ultimately, prevention to avoid losses. And the first offering that we're going to market with is called Circle Protection. And the objective there will be to provide State Farm customers an offering that is centered on preventing fire, intrusion and water claims. We will go to market in Indiana in late March. We have Pennsylvania and Illinois as fast follows, where we're testing and learning this Circle Protection offering, working with the agents to get it in distribution. I think we have 6 -- about a half dozen states after those first 3 that are on the docket for rollout throughout the rest of 2023. And then the intent is to go more broadly across the country into 2024. Teams are working together every day. We're excited to get in market in Indiana. And as I said, that will be late March, possibly early April for that launch.

謝謝你，George。我是 Jim。感謝這個第一個問題。從高層次來看，先鋪陳一下：我們與 State Farm 合作關係的願景，是要把房屋保險從純粹的事後修復，轉變為納入預測，並最終走向預防，以避免損失。而我們將共同推向市場的第一個方案叫做 Circle Protection。其目標是為 State Farm 客戶提供一項以預防火災、入侵與漏水理賠為核心的方案。我們將在 3 月下旬於印第安納州上市。賓夕法尼亞州與伊利諾州將緊接其後，我們會在這些州測試並學習 Circle Protection 方案，並與代理人合作把它導入通路。我認為在前 3 個州之後，還有 6 個左右的州已排入名單，將在 2023 年其餘時間陸續推出。接著的意圖是在 2024 年更廣泛地推向全國。團隊每天都在共同合作。我們很期待在印第安納州進入市場。如我所說，將在 3 月下旬，可能是 4 月初進行該次上市。

Got it. That's helpful. You discussed the impact that the Google partnership has had on [Nest] Doorbell attach rates, Nest camera growth and overall residential installation revenue per unit. Can you elaborate on how much additional lift you would expect from Google in the years ahead? And what inning the Google partnership is currently in with respect to its ramp cadence.

了解，這很有幫助。你提到 Google 合作夥伴關係對 [Nest] 門鈴搭售率、Nest 攝影機成長，以及整體住宅端每單位安裝營收所帶來的影響。你能否進一步說明，未來幾年你預期 Google 還能帶來多少額外拉抬？以及就其爬坡節奏而言，Google 的合作目前進行到哪一局（哪個階段）？

Yes. I mean, we continue to feel great about the partnership with Google. Our marketing teams, as you know, George, are working together for a co-branded campaign. We'll be going to market as ADT+ Google. The teams have developed some excellent content recently. The Google Success funds were going to be tapping into for the first time this quarter, and those success funds, that first $50 million tranche, we anticipate, receiving in 2023. The large majority of those funds will be invested in upper-funnel advertising. And then, George, on the product front, we feel great to be offering Google Nest products. Our installation revenue per new install was just a tick above $1,300 in the fourth quarter that is largely due to having Google in our lineup. So we feel good about the marketing. We feel good about the relationship overall and access to those Google Success funds. And then from a product perspective, we're pleased with the products. Our customers are pleased with the products, and we're seeing record levels of installation revenue per.

是的。我們持續對與 Google 的合作感到非常滿意。正如你所知，George，我們的行銷團隊正在共同推動聯名活動。我們將以 ADT+ Google 的方式進入市場。團隊近期製作了一些非常出色的內容。本季我們將首次動用 Google Success funds，而我們預期在 2023 年收到該筆資金的第一個 5,000 萬美元 tranche（分期/批次）。其中絕大部分資金將投入於漏斗上層（upper-funnel）的廣告投放。另外，George，在產品面，我們很高興能提供 Google Nest 產品。我們第四季每筆新安裝的安裝營收略高於 1,300 美元，這在很大程度上歸功於我們產品陣容中有 Google。因此我們對行銷、整體合作關係以及取得這些 Google Success funds 的管道都感到樂觀。從產品角度來看，我們對產品很滿意，我們的客戶也很滿意，且我們看到每筆安裝營收創下新高水準。

Your next question is from the line of Peter Christiansen with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗（Citi）的 Peter Christiansen。

Nice trends all around. Jim, I was wondering if you can talk a little bit more about the setup in the housing market that we're all seeing right now. I guess you are seeing some trade down at some of the home improvement retailers. And I know you're seeing higher attach rates. It's contributing to lower attrition, things of that nature. I just wanted to point out, have you seen any issues as it relates to pricing trade down, any of those impacts given where we are in the housing cycle.

整體趨勢都很不錯。Jim，我想請你多談一點我們目前在房市看到的情況。我想你們在一些居家修繕零售商那邊看到消費者有往較低價位產品轉移（trade down）。我也知道你們看到更高的搭售率，這有助於降低流失率之類。我只是想指出，在目前的房市循環位置下，你們是否看到任何與價格下移（pricing trade down）相關的問題或影響？

Thanks for the question, Pete. So far, so good. We, for sure, have some pressure on gross adds because homes that are built can't have a system installed. But overall, consumers are spending on home improvement, as I just mentioned to George, our installation revenue has been on a tear, just about linear improvement over the last 5 or 6 quarters. I think if we look back just a couple of years, that IRPU was at about $700. And as I mentioned, finished Q4 at $1,300.

謝謝你的問題，Pete。到目前為止，一切都還不錯。確實，我們在新增用戶（gross adds）上有一些壓力，因為房屋若尚未建成，就無法安裝系統。但整體而言，消費者仍在居家改善上支出；正如我剛才對 George 提到的，我們的安裝營收表現非常強勁，過去 5 到 6 個季度幾乎呈線性改善。我想如果回頭看兩年前，IRPU 大約在 700 美元左右。而如我所提到的，第四季結束時達到 1,300 美元。

Importantly, from an attrition perspective, about 40% of our attrition is due to movers and with a softer housing market and fewer relocations, the net is a benefit to us. We look at some pressure, as I said, on new adds, but far and away the benefit from improved retention advantage of ADT.

重要的是，從流失率角度來看，我們約 40% 的流失是因搬家所致；在房市較疲軟、搬遷較少的情況下，整體而言對我們是有利的。我們如前所述看到新增用戶有些壓力，但遠遠超過這些的是，ADT 因留存改善所帶來的好處。

That's helpful. And then I wanted to dig a little bit into the commercial backlog, which really grew at a nice clip this quarter, I think up 20%, RMR, up 35%. Just if you could talk about some of the areas where you are seeing some positive momentum there, maybe by particular real estate verticals, so on and so forth. But also can you just chat about the supply issues? Are those largely alleviated right now?

這很有幫助。接著我想更深入談談商用端在手訂單（commercial backlog），本季成長速度相當不錯，我記得 RMR 成長 20%，上升 35%。想請你談談你們在哪些領域看到正向動能，例如特定的不動產垂直領域等等。另外也想請你聊聊供應問題：目前是否已大致緩解？

Yes. The momentum in this business is fantastic. The capabilities that we're building in new verticals, energy, education, government have been strong for us. really hitting on most all cylinders. We're doing some really interesting work in innovation around interior robots and drones, have some customer pilots in place. So at a high level, Pete, we feel great about the commercial business, specific to the supply chain, we're not out of the woods. I'd say, I think the team would describe the environment is a bit better now than in the summer months of 2022. We've had some parts come in, so we're able to chip away at that backlog a little bit. But I'd say -- I'd probably characterize it as improving, but not back to normal quite yet. I think we anticipate, as 2023 goes on for the parts situation to get better and better for us.

是的。這項業務的動能非常強勁。我們在新的垂直領域——能源、教育、政府——所建構的能力，對我們而言表現很強。基本上幾乎各方面都火力全開。我們也在室內機器人與無人機等創新方面做了一些非常有意思的工作，並已安排一些客戶試點。整體而言，Pete，我們對商業業務的表現感到非常振奮；但就供應鏈而言，我們還沒有完全走出困境。我會說，我認為團隊會形容目前的環境比 2022 年夏季那幾個月稍微好一些。我們已經收到一些零組件，因此能夠把積壓訂單消化掉一部分。但我會說——我大概會把它形容為正在改善，但還沒有完全回到正常。我們預期隨著 2023 年推進，零組件供應情況會對我們越來越好。

Your next question is from the line of Brian Ruttenbur with Imperial Capital.

您的下一個問題來自 Imperial Capital 的 Brian Ruttenbur。

First of all, on attrition, you talked a little bit about what's going on? What is in your guidance in terms of attrition in 2023. Do you expect it to be at these levels? Do you expect some improvement in attrition. There's a lot of moving parts. I want to understand what your projections are.

首先，關於流失率（attrition），你們稍微談到了一些目前的情況？在你們對 2023 年的指引中，對流失率的假設是什麼？你們預期會維持在目前這些水準嗎？是否預期流失率會有所改善？這裡面有很多變動因素。我想了解你們的預測是什麼。

Brian, it's Ken Porpora. Thanks for the question. we're not specifically guiding to attrition. When we think about some of the high-level figures that we've shared in an extra slide in our deck, the predictor that we have going on with the new attributes that customers are joining are really excited about the new visits that we're adding and the proposed tickets, whether it's more devices per home, the higher IRPU that Jim mentioned, higher video take rates, all that's building off for the future. The relocation market move market, tough to predict. So I think holding serve in '23 from an attrition perspective kind of is generally kind of what we're thinking, but we're not giving specific guidance for the metric. We think about it at a high level that we're driving the indicators and factors that will drive long-term retention and the piece that we don't control is the relocation and move market. We're really excited about the trends that we've seen here and even a slight downtrend in the delinquencies that we'd like to see with our high level of credit scores in our portfolio.

Brian，我是 Ken Porpora。謝謝你的問題。我們並沒有針對流失率提供具體指引。當我們看待一些我們在簡報中額外一張投影片所分享的高層次數據時，我們看到的領先指標是：新加入的客戶所呈現的新屬性，對我們非常有利——客戶對我們新增的到府服務（visits）以及提案的工單（proposed tickets）感到非常興奮；不論是每戶更多裝置、Jim 提到的更高 IRPU、更高的影像（video）採用率，這些都在為未來奠基。搬遷市場、移動市場很難預測。因此我認為，從流失率角度來看，2023 年大致維持現狀（holding serve）是我們一般的想法，但我們不會對這個指標給出具體指引。我們在高層次上思考的是：我們正在推動那些能帶動長期留存的指標與因素；而我們無法控制的部分是搬遷與移動市場。我們對目前看到的趨勢感到非常振奮，另外我們也看到逾期（delinquencies）有些微下降的趨勢；在我們投資組合中信用分數維持高水準的情況下，這正是我們希望看到的。

Okay. So what I heard is that probably the likelihood is going to be flattish attrition is what we should be thinking along those lines, though it could go a fraction of a point either way. Is that a correct summary?

好的。所以我聽到的是，我們應該把流失率大致持平的可能性納入考量，雖然可能上下差個零點幾個百分點。這樣總結正確嗎？

I think that's fair, Brian. Super tough to predict. But all of the lead indicators that Ken mentioned really bode well for us. The devices -- I think, I shared this on the last call, the number of devices in a system correlates with retention. And our devices that are 10 or more devices in a system is about double right now than it was a couple of years ago. Ken mentioned an uptick in credit scores, service backlog near record low. We're getting more sophisticated on our own save offers. And so while we're planning to hold serve come in right around where we are now, where we've got some cost for optimism given the positive lead indicators.

我認為這樣說是合理的，Brian。真的非常難預測。但 Ken 提到的所有領先指標對我們都非常有利。裝置數——我想我在上次電話會議分享過，系統中的裝置數量與留存率是相關的。而目前每個系統中裝置數達到 10 個或以上的比例，大約是幾年前的兩倍。Ken 也提到信用分數上升、服務積壓接近歷史低點。我們在自家挽留（save）方案上也變得更成熟。因此，雖然我們的規劃是大致維持在目前水準，但基於這些正向的領先指標，我們確實有一些樂觀的理由。

Great. And then as a follow-up on the Google rollout on ADT+, I believe the plan was rolling out starting in the first quarter. When do you expect it to be fully rolled out for all new customers coming on board? Is it going to be 2023, beginning of 2024, maybe you can give us kind of some rough guidelines.

很好。接著追問一下 Google 在 ADT+ 上的推廣（rollout）。我記得計畫是從第一季開始推。你們預期何時能對所有新加入的客戶全面推出？會是在 2023 年內，還是 2024 年初？也許你們可以給我們一些大致的時間指引。

You bet. So the way that we're staging it is that the self-install or DIY product with Google is now launched. And that's with the integrated app that you're familiar with, Brian, Later this year, very late third quarter, maybe fourth quarter the intent is to roll out the product offering for our professional install product as well. So DIY is out and we'll say, Q4 for DIFM.

當然可以。我們的分階段方式是：與 Google 合作的自助安裝（self-install）或 DIY 產品現在已經上線。這搭配你熟悉的整合式 App，Brian。今年稍晚——第三季非常後段，可能到第四季——我們的目標是也推出我們的專業安裝產品（professional install）的產品方案。因此 DIY 已經推出，而 DIFM 我們就先說 Q4。

Great. And then just one other quick question on solar. Are you seeing anything with the economy that's slowing adoption of solar? Or are you on plan for seeing an improvement kind of year-over-year from 2022 levels.

很好。最後再快速問一個關於太陽能的問題。你們是否看到經濟因素正在放緩太陽能的採用？或者你們仍按計畫，預期相較 2022 年水準能看到年對年改善？

Yes. A lot of moving parts here. The housing market, the overall economy Inflation Reduction Act provides a bit of a tailwind. And I'd say [net], it's probably a little softer demand than it might have been a year ago. But yes, we're still long-term bullish on solar. I mentioned this on our last call. I'm pleased with the progress the team is making. Jamie's leadership is fantastic for us, but there's a lot of work to do here. And so I'm bullish on 2023 and even more so as we continue to set the operating foundation to scale this business to size.

是的。這裡有很多變動因素：房市、整體經濟，以及《通膨削減法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）帶來一些順風。我會說，整體（[net]）來看，需求可能比一年前稍微偏弱一些。但我們對太陽能的長期前景仍然看多。我在上次電話會議也提過，我對團隊的進展感到滿意。Jamie 的領導力對我們非常出色，但這裡還有很多工作要做。因此我看好 2023 年，而且隨著我們持續建立營運基礎、把這項業務擴大到一定規模，我會更加看好。

Your next question is from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Manav, please go ahead, your line may be on mute. Okay. We'll move on to the next question and it's from the line of Ashish Sabadra with RBC Capital Markets.

您的下一個問題來自 Barclays 的 Manav Patnaik。Manav，請開始，您的線路可能處於靜音。好的。我們將進入下一個問題，來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Ashish Sabadra。

I just had a multipart question about the 2025 goals. I'll just ask them upfront. So the like when we look at the midpoint of the '23 guidance and the 2025 goals, it implies like 20% CAGR for revenue and 24%, 25% CAGR for free cash flow. So can you just talk about how should we think about that trajectory going forward? What will drive that kind of strong momentum and maybe some of the details that you provided, but how important is Google and State Farm in helping deliver on those goals.

我有一個關於 2025 年目標的多段式問題，我先一次問完。當我們看 2023 年指引的中位數與 2025 年目標時，推算起來大概意味著營收 20% 的 CAGR，以及自由現金流 24%、25% 的 CAGR。你們能談談我們應該如何看待未來的成長軌跡嗎？是什麼會驅動這種強勁動能？也許你們已提供了一些細節，但 Google 與 State Farm 在協助達成這些目標上有多重要？

Sure. Thanks for the question, Ashish. They're coming off the back of our rate to 2022, I think our guidance for '23 is 5% revenue, 5% EBITDA and 20% of free cash flow growth. So your question really is, how does that compare to our long-term growth. It's not exactly linear, but I think we think it's a great milestone to step in the right direction there. I think the revenue number you quote is probably a bit high versus what we shared at the Investor Day, but I think the way to look at it is a little bit more growth in the back end from the solar business, that base matures more in '24 and '25. The consumer business and the commercial business coming off very strong in 2022. We're excited with that growth as well. So I think while it's not linear, it's a step certainly in the trajectory for our '25 goals. And we still are aligned with those 2025 goals, things like $10 [billion] in revenue with $3 billion in EBITDA, taking our net leverage ratio to under 3. Some of those factors -- were some of the key factors. We're paying out $1 billion of debt, some of our commitments and our long-term goals.

好的。謝謝你的問題，Ashish。這些是建立在我們 2022 年的表現基礎之上；我想我們對 2023 年的指引是：營收成長 5%、EBITDA 成長 5%，以及自由現金流成長 20%。所以你的問題其實是：這與我們的長期成長相比如何。它不會是完全線性的，但我們認為這是一個朝正確方向邁進的重要里程碑。我想你引用的營收數字可能比我們在投資人日（Investor Day）分享的略高一些；但我認為可以這樣看：太陽能業務在後段會帶來更多成長，因為那個基礎在 2024 與 2025 年會更成熟。消費者業務與商業業務在 2022 年表現非常強勁，我們也對那樣的成長感到振奮。因此，雖然不是線性，但確實是朝我們 2025 年目標軌跡前進的一步。我們仍與 2025 年目標保持一致，例如 100 億美元營收、30 億美元 EBITDA，並將淨槓桿比率降到 3 以下。這些因素——是一些關鍵因素。我們也在償還 10 億美元的債務，履行我們的一些承諾與長期目標。

That's very helpful color. And if you don't mind, if I can just follow up on that question around free cash flow as well. How do we think about the drivers for free cash flow going forward?

這些說明很有幫助。如果你不介意，我也想就自由現金流再追問一下：我們應該如何看待未來自由現金流的驅動因素？

Yes, sure. You'll see our guide this year is $600 million to $700 million with including the benefits of the interest rate swaps. So a midpoint of $650 million, which represents about 20% year-over-year growth versus 2022. Our overall commitment for 2025 implied by $1 billion of adjusted free cash flow, so we think we're on that pace, and we like that year-over-year growth consistent with the 20% that we grew in 2022. I think we've proven in '22 the ability to deliver the cash flow, the movements in our SAC year-over-year and the revenue payback have us showing a clear line of sight to [generate] those goals, but especially the SAC, which is our biggest expense, biggest cash output. We really like the revenue payback numbers are playing up. And some of the installation revenue is a big driver of that, especially in the residential business. So when you add all those factors together, it makes us feel good about the guidance on our way to the long-term goal.

是的，當然。你會看到我們今年的指引為 6 億美元到 7 億美元，且已包含利率交換（interest rate swaps）的效益。因此中位數為 6.5 億美元，較 2022 年約有 20% 的年增長。我們對 2025 年的整體承諾是以 10 億美元的調整後自由現金流所隱含的目標，因此我們認為我們正按這個節奏前進，而且我們也喜歡這種與 2022 年 20% 成長一致的年增長。我認為我們在 2022 年已證明具備交付現金流的能力；我們的 SAC 年對年變動以及營收回收（payback）讓我們對[達成]這些目標有清晰的可視性，尤其是 SAC——這是我們最大的費用、最大的現金支出。我們非常喜歡營收回收數據正在改善。而部分安裝收入是其中的重要驅動因素，特別是在住宅業務。把所有這些因素加總起來，讓我們對在邁向長期目標的路上所給出的指引感到很有信心。

This concludes the Q&A session of today's call. I will now turn the call back over to the company's CEO, Jim DeVries for closing remarks.

今天電話會議的問答環節到此結束。現在我將把電話交回給公司執行長 Jim DeVries 作結語。

And sorry before closing as we have one more question from Manav, if you could bring him back in.

另外抱歉，在結語之前我們還有 Manav 的一個問題，如果可以的話請把他接回來。

This is Ronan Kennedy on for Manav. There's been a lot of questions on specific drivers by business. But can I just read how do you recap the underlying assumptions and what the guidance contemplates from a (inaudible) standpoint, assuming a lower volume of housing relocations and higher interest rates, but what the broad macroeconomic assumptions are? And then also, any help on how to think about sequential growth in margins given consideration to seasonality, et cetera, for 2023?

我是代替 Manav 的 Ronan Kennedy。大家問了很多關於各業務具體驅動因素的問題。但我想請教，你們能否概述一下基本假設，以及在（聽不清）角度下指引所涵蓋的內容——假設房屋搬遷量較低、利率較高，那麼整體宏觀經濟假設是什麼？另外，對於 2023 年在考量季節性等因素下，該如何看待利潤率的逐季成長（sequential growth）？

Can you repeat the last part of that about the seasonality, I kind of caught the rest of it though. The last part of your question -- can you repeat the last part of your question about seasonality.

你能重複一下最後那部分關於季節性的問題嗎？我大致聽到前面的內容了。你問題的最後一部分——能否再重複一下關於季節性的最後那部分。

Yes. Yes. Just with regards to sequential growth in margin and how to think about that for in consideration of your guidance for full year '23 with any impacts of seasonality.

可以。可以。就是關於利潤率逐季成長，以及在你們對 2023 全年指引的考量下，季節性可能帶來的影響，該如何思考。

Got it. Okay. So overall, how do we think about '23 in the form of what's going on with the macro fees? I mean, as Jim mentioned, there's a bunch of different variables. As I think about the consumer business, while the home market rebound may be starting up, let's assume it just flattened and existing is, again, that tends to be a net positive for us given the greater stickiness and the greater attachment to recurring revenue. Overall, to some of the pricing that we're seeing in the market.

了解。好的。那整體而言，我們如何從宏觀因素的角度來看 2023 年？如同 Jim 提到的，變數很多。就消費者業務而言，雖然房市反彈可能正在開始，但我們先假設它只是趨於持平，而二手房（existing）也是——再說一次，這通常對我們是淨正面，因為黏著度更高、且與經常性收入的連結更強。整體來看，也包括我們在市場上看到的一些定價情況。

We've had some good trends, especially on the IRPU or our revenue per unit in the home. So if you think about the consumer business, we see the bucking most of the trends with the macro, given the customer portfolio that we target. The commercial business, again, given a robust backlog of over $420 million. We feel really strong about the new verticals that we're in as well as the ability to knock down that backlog. And on the solar business, while there are a couple of headwinds related to inflation costs and interest rates, the Inflation Reduction Act as well as higher utility expenses tend to bolster that business as well.

我們看到一些不錯的趨勢，特別是在 IRPU（每戶收入，revenue per unit in the home）。因此若你看消費者業務，考量到我們鎖定的客戶組合，我們看到在多數宏觀趨勢下仍能逆勢而行。商業業務方面，鑑於超過 4.2 億美元的強勁在手訂單（backlog），我們對我們進入的新垂直領域以及消化該在手訂單的能力都非常有信心。至於太陽能業務，雖然有一些與通膨成本與利率相關的逆風，但《通膨削減法案》（Inflation Reduction Act）以及更高的公用事業費用，通常也會支撐該業務。

So lots of pros and cons when I step back when we think about our guide in the form of macro, I call it generally neutral given the markets that we plan. On a sequential basis and kind of how 2023 looks, the only thing to kind of keep in mind is, I think solar is a little more back-end loaded generally based on how we're improving that business. I think the timing of our free cash flow, as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, Q1 tends to be a little low for us and it kind of accretes throughout the year. So I think 2022 is a good example of how our primary free cash flow generally comes in through the year. So I think about the free cash flow along all those lines of our 2022 patterns.

所以當我退一步看、從宏觀角度思考我們的指引時，利弊並存；就我們所參與的市場而言，我會把它稱為整體大致中性。至於逐季的角度、以及 2023 年看起來如何，唯一需要記住的是：我認為太陽能通常會比較偏向下半年貢獻（back-end loaded），主要取決於我們如何改善該業務。我提到過，在我準備好的發言中，我們的自由現金流時點上，第一季通常會比較低，然後會在全年逐步累積（accrete）。因此 2022 年是一個很好的例子，顯示我們主要的自由現金流通常是如何在全年逐步進來的。所以我會依照 2022 年的模式來思考自由現金流。

That's very helpful. Appreciate it. And then may I just confirm you had referred to streamlining the cost structure and CSB and reference initiatives in commercial and solar last year. Could you just recap what those were for commercial and solar in the prior year and what you expect them to be for CSB and the potential impact?

這非常有幫助，謝謝。那我可以再確認一下：你提到精簡成本結構以及 CSB，並提到去年在商業與太陽能方面的相關措施。你能否回顧一下前一年商業與太陽能的措施是什麼，以及你預期 CSB 會是哪些措施與可能的影響？

Sure. Last year, kind of put it in 2 categories. One was, get some labor force rightsizing and the second piece was pricing. And we were pretty aggressive in both areas. So we've had the opportunity in our consumer business that the trends have been pretty solid, as you can see from the metrics we put out last year and have guided to in 2023. So I would think of this more as pruning around the edges, sharpening our cost buckets for the consumer business, getting a little bit sharper in our pricing, but also rightsizing some of the pieces of the workforce. So I think a bit more as pruning versus the more aggressive actions we took in the commercial and solar business.

當然。去年大致可分成兩類：一是進行人力規模的調整（rightsizing），第二是定價。我們在這兩方面都相當積極。因此在消費者業務上，我們有機會看到趨勢相當穩健，正如你從我們去年公布的指標以及我們對 2023 年的指引所看到的。我會把這更多視為在邊緣做修剪（pruning around the edges）：讓消費者業務的成本項目更精準一些、定價更精準一些，同時也對部分人力做規模調整。因此我認為這更像是修剪，而不是我們在商業與太陽能業務中採取的更激進行動。

And at this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call over to the company's CEO, Jim DeVries, for any closing remarks.

目前沒有其他問題。我現在將把電話交回給公司執行長 Jim DeVries 作結語。

Great. Thank you, operator, and thanks, everyone, for taking the time to join us today. As you heard, ADT is effectively growing our business. We're driving innovation, building brand loyalty and improving our capital efficiency. We've got great momentum in the business with catalysts for growth in State Farm and our Google partnerships. We're looking forward to a strong 2023. I'd like to extend my appreciation to our ADT employees and dealer partners for an outstanding quarter and outstanding year. Our results are a direct reflection of your collective efforts. Thanks again, everyone, for joining the call, and have a great day.

很好。謝謝接線員，也謝謝各位今天撥冗加入。如各位所聽到的，ADT 正有效地推動業務成長。我們正在推動創新、建立品牌忠誠度並提升資本效率。我們的業務動能很強，State Farm 以及我們與 Google 的合作夥伴關係都帶來成長催化劑。我們期待 2023 年表現強勁。我也要向 ADT 的員工與經銷夥伴致上謝意，感謝你們帶來出色的一季與出色的一年。我們的成果直接反映了大家的共同努力。再次感謝各位加入本次電話會議，祝各位有美好的一天。

This does conclude today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝各位的參與。您現在可以掛線。