自動資料處理 (ADP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded.

早安.我叫米歇爾，我將擔任您的會議接線生。現在，我歡迎大家參加 ADP 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。我想通知您，這次會議正在錄製。

(Operator Instructions) I will now turn the conference over to Matt Keating, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

（操作員指示）現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Matt Keating。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome, everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Participating today are Maria Black, our President and CEO; and Don McGuire, our CFO.

謝謝你，米歇爾，歡迎大家參加 ADP 2024 財年第四季財報電話會議。今天參加會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長瑪麗亞·布萊克 (Maria Black)；以及我們的財務長唐·麥奎爾 (Don McGuire)。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you also find the Investor Presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早些時候，我們公佈了本季的業績。我們的收益資料可在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上查閱，您也可以在該網站上找到今天電話會議附帶的投資者簡報。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. The description of these items, along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures, can be found in our earnings release.

在電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且排除了某些項目的影響。這些項目的描述以及非公認會計準則指標與最具可比性的公認會計準則指標的對帳可在我們的收益報告中找到。

Today's call will contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from current expectations.

今天的電話會議將包含涉及未來事件並涉及一定風險的前瞻性陳述。我們鼓勵您查看我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與當前預期存在重大差異的因素的更多資​​訊。

I'll now turn it over to Maria.

現在我將把發言權交給瑪麗亞。

Thank you, Matt and good morning. Before we get started, I'd like to take a minute to thank Danyal Hussain for leading Investor Relations for these past several years. He helped lead us through the pandemic and helped Shepherd our CFO and CEO transitions during his time. With Danny moving on to a broader role, it is my pleasure to officially welcome Matt Keating to his first call. Congratulations to you both.

謝謝你，馬特，早安。在我們開始之前，我想花一點時間感謝 Danyal Hussain 過去幾年來領導投資者關係工作。他幫助我們度過了疫情，並在任職期間幫助我們完成了財務長和執行長的過渡。隨著丹尼擔任更廣泛的職務，我很高興正式歡迎馬特·基廷參加他的第一次通話。祝賀你們倆。

We closed out the year with a strong fourth quarter that included 6% revenue growth, 80 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and 11% adjusted EPS growth. For fiscal 2024, we delivered 7% revenue growth, 70 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion, and 12% adjusted EPS growth, representing another great year for ADP. I'm excited to share the progress we've made across our three strategic priorities, but first, I'll start off with some additional highlights from our results.

我們以強勁的第四季度結束了這一財年，其中包括 6% 的收入增長、80 個基點的調整後息稅前利潤率擴張和 11% 的調整後每股收益增長。2024 財年，我們的營收成長了 7%，調整後的息稅前利潤率擴大了 70 個基點，調整後的每股盈餘成長了 12%，這對 ADP 來說又是一個偉大的一年。我很高興與大家分享我們在三個策略重點方面取得的進展，但首先，我將從我們的成果中介紹一些額外的亮點。

Our sales and marketing team delivered exceptional employer services, new business bookings in Q4, on top of a strong Q4 last year. This performance was broad based, showing continued strength in our small business portfolio, as well as our mid-market enterprise and international businesses. In fact, we sold and started more than 50,000 new small business clients during the quarter, which not only reflects the strength of our run solution, but also our reputation for commitment to strong service.

我們的銷售和行銷團隊在去年第四季表現強勁的基礎上，在第四季度提供了卓越的雇主服務和新的業務訂單。這一業績表現廣泛，顯示我們的小型企業組合以及中型企業和國際業務持續保持強勁。事實上，本季我們銷售並啟動了超過 50,000 個新的小型企業客戶，這不僅反映了我們運行解決方案的實力，也體現了我們致力於提供強大服務的聲譽。

Similarly, in the enterprise space, client interest in our next-gen HCM solution has exceeded expectations and resulted in strong Q4 sales, and we are excited to continue this great momentum.

同樣，在企業領域，客戶對我們下一代 HCM 解決方案的興趣超出了預期，並帶來了強勁的第四季度銷售，我們很高興能夠延續這一良好勢頭。

As a result of this exceptional performance, our fiscal 2024 employer services bookings growth came in at 7%, the high end of our 4% to 7% guidance range. This growth speaks to the power of ADP's unmatched distribution model, which remains a clear competitive advantage for us. With our new business pipeline even stronger than this time last year, we look forward to building on that momentum.

由於這一出色的表現，我們 2024 財年的雇主服務預訂量增加了 7%，處於我們 4% 至 7% 指導範圍的高端。這種成長證明了 ADP 無與倫比的分銷模式的強大力量，這對我們來說仍然是一個明顯的競爭優勢。我們的新業務管道比去年同期更加強大，我們期待繼續保持這一勢頭。

Overall, our employer services retention came in better than expected for the year at 92%. We drove record level retention in our mid-market business for the second consecutive year in fiscal 2024.

整體而言，我們今年的雇主服務留任率優於預期，達到 92%。2024 財年，我們中端市場業務的保留率連續第二年創下歷史新高。

I'm also extremely proud to share that our client satisfaction scores for our total business reached new all-time highs for both the fourth quarter and full year. These results are a testament to the strength of our entire product portfolio and our commitment to supporting our clients. We are confident that these client satisfaction gains will support our retention results moving forward.

我還非常自豪地告訴大家，我們整個業務的客戶滿意度得分在第四季度和全年都達到了歷史新高。這些結果證明了我們整個產品組合的實力以及我們對支援客戶的承諾。我們相信，客戶滿意度的提高將支持我們未來的保留結果。

Our employer services pays per control increased 2% both for the quarter and the full year. We were happy to have seen the resilience of the US Labor market, as our clients continued to hire employees at a moderate pace. Finally, our fourth quarter PEO revenue growth of 6% exceeded our expectations despite continued pressure from slowing client hiring activity.

我們的雇主服務每項控制支出在本季和全年均成長了 2%。我們很高興看到美國勞動市場的復甦，因為我們的客戶繼續以適度的速度僱用員工。最後，儘管客戶招募活動放緩持續帶來壓力，但我們第四季的 PEO 收入成長 6%，超出了我們的預期。

Our fiscal 2024 accomplishments extend far beyond our strong financial results. One year ago, I laid the foundation for our three strategic priorities that will guide our future growth.

我們在 2024 財年的成就遠遠超出了強勁的財務表現。一年前，我為指導我們未來發展的三大策略重點奠定了基礎。

Now, I'd like to recap some of the great progress we made in each of these areas. Our first priority is to lead with best-in-class HCM technology. We had a very busy year on this front as we launched ADP Assist, our cross-platform solution powered by generative AI that transforms client data into actionable insights. This isn't just another technical solution, it's an experience that combines ADP's deep data set and expertise to empower HR professionals, leaders, and employees.

現在，我想回顧一下我們在各個領域取得的一些重大進展。我們的首要任務是引領一流的 HCM 技術。我們在這方面度過了非常忙碌的一年，因為我們推出了 ADP Assist，這是我們的跨平台解決方案，由生成式人工智慧驅動，可將客戶資料轉化為可操作的見解。這不僅僅是另一個技術解決方案，它是一種結合 ADP 深度資料集和專業知識來增強人力資源專業人士、領導者和員工能力的體驗。

We deployed ADP Assist across several of our platforms, including Roll, RUN, Workforce Now, and next-gen HCM, with enhanced capabilities ranging from report creation to natural language search to initiating HR actions. These tools streamline daily tasks and are all powered by an easy-to-use search interface that is already receiving meaningful recognition in the field of generative AI. We are very proud to share that ADP Assist earned the Generative AI Innovation Award in the 2024 AI Breakthrough Awards, and we look forward to rolling out even more features in fiscal 2025.

我們在多個平台上部署了 ADP Assist，包括 Roll、RUN、Workforce Now 和下一代 HCM，增強了從報告創建到自然語言搜尋再到啟動人力資源行動等功能。這些工具簡化了日常任務，並全部由易於使用的搜尋介面提供支持，該介面已在生成人工智慧領域獲得了有意義的認可。我們非常自豪地宣布，ADP Assist 在 2024 年 AI 突破獎中榮獲生成式 AI 創新獎，我們期待在 2025 財年推出更多功能。

In addition to embedding generative AI in our products, we continued to advance our next-gen initiatives. Our active next-gen payroll client count increased by nearly 50% in fiscal 2024, and we grew our number of live next-gen HCM clients by more than 30% as we continued to improve implementation times. Our next priority is to provide unmatched expertise and outsourcing.

除了在我們的產品中嵌入生成式人工智慧之外，我們還繼續推進我們的下一代計劃。2024 財年，我們活躍的下一代薪資客戶數量增加了近 50%，隨著我們不斷縮短實施時間，我們的活躍下一代 HCM 客戶數量增加了 30% 以上。我們的下一個優先事項是提供無與倫比的專業知識和外包服務。

Our approach to supporting our clients has been key to our winning formula for decades. And in fiscal 2024, we focused our efforts on implementing new technology that will help make an even greater impact for our clients.

幾十年來，我們支持客戶的方法一直是我們成功的關鍵。在 2024 財年，我們將專注於實施新技術，為我們的客戶帶來更大的影響。

To further unlock the value of our expertise, we deployed generative AI tools like call summarization and real-time guidance to support our service associates. We also invested in generative AI and other automation capabilities for our implementation teams to reduce manual data entry and minimize the risk of error during implementation.

為了進一步釋放我們的專業知識的價值，我們部署了生成式人工智慧工具，例如呼叫摘要和即時指導，以支援我們的服務人員。我們還為實施團​​隊投資了生成式人工智慧和其他自動化功能，以減少手動資料輸入並最大限度地降低實施過程中出錯的風險。

For example, out of the 50,000 new RUN clients we sold and started during the fourth quarter, about half were digitally onboarded compared to a third of our new client onboarding and run this time last year. And as generative AI capabilities advance, we are excited to further accelerate this progress. Finally, we plan to provide additional tools to help our associates deliver better, faster service, and allow our client satisfaction scores to continue reaching new record levels.

例如，在第四季度我們銷售和啟動的 50,000 個新 RUN 客戶中，約有一半是透過數位方式加入的，而去年同期我們新客戶加入和運行的比例只有三分之一。隨著生成人工智慧能力的進步，我們很高興能夠進一步加速這一進程。最後，我們計劃提供額外的工具來幫助我們的員工提供更好、更快的服務，並使我們的客戶滿意度分數繼續達到新的歷史水平。

Our third strategic priority is to benefit our clients with our global scale. Globally, we bring together an unmatched footprint, best-in-class integrated solutions, and industry-leading service and expertise to help our clients and their employees navigate the changing world of work.

我們的第三個策略重點是利用我們的全球規模使客戶受益。在全球範圍內，我們匯集了無與倫比的影響力、一流的整合解決方案以及業界領先的服務和專業知識，幫助我們的客戶及其員工應對不斷變化的工作世界。

In fiscal 2024, we continued to leverage this global scale to strengthen our business. We extended our global footprint, acquiring the payroll business of our partner in Sweden, expanding the scope of our Celergo payroll offering to include Iceland, and further growing our on-the-ground presence in the APAC region. Our iHCM platform also continued to scale in several European countries and now serves more than 5,000 clients and pays more than 1 million client employees.

2024財年，我們將繼續利用這一全球規模來加強我們的業務。我們擴大了全球業務範圍，收購了瑞典合作夥伴的薪資業務，將 Celergo 薪資服務範圍擴大到冰島，並進一步擴大了我們在亞太地區的實地影響力。我們的 iHCM 平台也持續在幾個歐洲國家擴大規模，目前為超過 5,000 個客戶提供服務，並為超過 100 萬名客戶員工支付薪酬。

Finally, we deepened our existing partnerships with several other leading technology providers to further simplify HCM processes and broaden the spectrum of support we can provide our clients. Next, I'd like to share some new client wins from Q4 to highlight how we're leading in workforce innovation and delivering value for our clients. In US Small business, we continue to successfully onboard new retirement services clients across multiple industry verticals.

最後，我們深化了與其他幾家領先技術供應商的現有合作夥伴關係，以進一步簡化 HCM 流程並擴大我們可以為客戶提供的支援範圍。接下來，我想分享第四季度的一些新客戶案例，以強調我們如何引領勞動力創新並為客戶創造價值。在美國小型企業中，我們持續成功地吸引多個垂直行業的新退休服務客戶。

During the quarter, we added the plan of a Texas-based insurance agency, which was challenged by manual processes and the management of multiple providers. ADP's advanced technology and planned fiduciary solutions simplified the client's plan administration, reduced its manual oversight, and lowered its plan fees. The ADP team made the transition easy and stress-free by providing the client with critical management of the transfer process, as well as regular briefings on the plan set up. This is just one of the thousands of new clients who turn to our retirement services solution every year.

在本季度，我們增加了一家總部位於德克薩斯州的保險代理機構的計劃，該計劃面臨手動流程和多家供應商管理的挑戰。ADP 的先進技術和計畫受託解決方案簡化了客戶的計畫管理，減少了人工監督，並降低了計畫費用。ADP 團隊為客戶提供轉移流程的關鍵管理以及製定計劃的定期簡報，使過渡變得輕鬆且無壓力。這只是每年採用我們的退休服務解決方案的數千名新客戶之一。

In fact, we recently took the top spot as the nation's largest 401-k record keeper by Total Plans and Total 401-k Plans in the Plan Sponsor Magazine 2024 defined contribution Record Keeping Survey. We serve over 170,000 retirement services clients and it brings me great joy to see how ADP is helping employers address the retirement savings needs of so many Americans. We look forward to continuing the momentum in our retirement services business in fiscal 2025.

事實上，我們最近在《計劃發起人雜誌》2024 年固定繳款記錄保存調查中，被 Total Plans 和 Total 401-k Plans 評為全美最大的 401-k 記錄保存者。我們為超過 17 萬名退休服務客戶提供服務，看到 ADP 如何幫助雇主滿足如此多美國人的退休儲蓄需求，我感到非常高興。我們期待在 2025 財年繼續保持退休服務業務的良好發展勢頭。

In our HR outsourcing business, an orthopedic device company who had grown extensively through acquisition recognized it needed a deeper HR and technology infrastructure to support its future growth. So it turned to our comprehensive services support model to integrate its acquired companies onto a common platform. We look forward to supporting this client's current needs and helping it expand in the future.

在我們的人力資源外包業務中，一家透過收購實現了廣泛發展的骨科器械公司認識到，它需要更深層的人力資源和技術基礎設施來支持其未來的發展。因此，它採用我們的綜合服務支援模式，將其收購的公司整合到一個共同的平台上。我們期待支持該客戶當前的需求並幫助其在未來擴展。

Additionally, comprehensive services cost a major milestone in fiscal 2024, generating more than $1 billion in revenue for the year. This business has come a long way since its launch in 2008, and we look forward to leaning into our outsourcing business as a differentiator.

此外，綜合服務成本在 2024 財年達到了一個重要的里程碑，當年創造了超過 10 億美元的收入。自 2008 年推出以來，這項業務已經取得了長足的進步，我們期待著依靠外包業務來實現差異化。

In US Enterprise, we welcomed one of the largest automotive dealers in the Midwest to our next-gen HCM platform. Following several years of rapid growth, this client wanted to reimagine their HCM strategy. To help, our team went on-site and conducted a deep review of its current practices and pain points. We developed a plan that would leverage our next-gen HCM platform, flexible position management structure and other advanced HCM tools to address the organization's current and future HR strategy.

在美國企業，我們歡迎中西部最大的汽車經銷商之一加入我們的下一代 HCM 平台。經過幾年的快速成長，該客戶希望重新構想他們的 HCM 策略。為了提供幫助，我們的團隊前往現場，對目前的做法和痛點進行了深入審查。我們制定了一項計劃，利用我們的下一代 HCM 平台、靈活的職位管理結構和其他先進的 HCM 工具來解決組織當前和未來的人力資源策略。

Our initial solution included HR, payroll, time, and benefits, and the client later added recruiting and talent management. We look forward to helping shape the future of their workforce together. Overall, we were extremely pleased with our strong financial and strategic outcomes this past year. In fiscal 2024, ADP was recognized as the world's most admired company by Fortune magazine for the 18th consecutive year, and we also celebrated our 30th straight year on the Fortune 500.

我們最初的解決方案包括人力資源、薪資、時間和福利，客戶後來又增加了招募和人才管理。我們期待共同幫助塑造他們的勞動力的未來。整體而言，我們對過去一年強勁的財務和策略成果感到非常滿意。2024財年，ADP連續第18年被《財星》雜誌評為全球最受尊敬的公司，同時我們也慶祝了連續第30年躋身《財星》500強。

As some of you may know, 2024 is also our 75th anniversary. As I reflect on ADP's enduring impact on the world of work, the one constant on our journey is our talented associates, be it the recent accolades we received or the 75 years of support for our clients, we owe our recognition and strong financial performance to our 64,000 dedicated associates who deliver the great products and exceptional experiences and continue to drive our client satisfaction scores to new highs.

你們當中有些可能知道，2024 年也是我們的 75 週年。當我回顧 ADP 對工作世界產生的持久影響時，我們旅途中唯一不變的是我們才華橫溢的員工，無論是我們最近獲得的讚譽，還是 75 年來對客戶的支持，我們的認可和強勁的財務業績都歸功於我們 64,000 名敬業的員工，他們提供優質的產品和卓越的體驗，並繼續將我們的高度滿意度推向新的客戶。

I want to take a moment to recognize them for their incredible contributions. Thank you for all you do for ADP and for our clients. And now, I'll turn the call over to Don.

我想花一點時間來認可他們所做的傑出貢獻。感謝您為 ADP 和我們的客戶所做的一切。現在，我將把電話轉給唐。

Thank you, Maria. And good morning, everyone. I'll start by expanding on Maria's comments around our Q4 results and then cover our fiscal 2025 financial outlook. Q4 performance was very strong overall, helping to drive fiscal 2024 revenue and earnings growth towards the high end of our expectations. As previously mentioned, we benefited from broad-based strengths in employer services with exceptional new business bookings, better than anticipated retention, and stable pays per control growth.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞。大家早安。我將首先闡述​​瑪麗亞對我們第四季業績的評論，然後介紹我們 2025 財年的財務展望。第四季業績整體非常強勁，有助於推動 2024 財年營收和獲利成長達到我們預期的高端。如前所述，我們受益於雇主服務的廣泛優勢，包括出色的新業務預訂、好於預期的保留率以及穩定的每項控制薪酬增長。

PEO revenue growth in the quarter also came in better than expected. Our strong Q4 results contributed to our full year revenue growth of 7%, bringing our fiscal '24 revenue to $19.2 billion. For our employer services segment, revenue in the quarter increased 7% on both a reported and organic constant currency basis. These results were bolstered by a slightly better than expected contribution from client funds interest.

本季 PEO 營收成長也優於預期。我們強勁的第四季業績推動我們全年營收成長 7%，使我們 24 財年營收達到 192 億美元。就我們的雇主服務部門而言，本季營收按報告和有機固定匯率計算均成長了 7%。這些結果得益於客戶資金利益略優於預期的貢獻。

Our ES margin expanded 220 basis points in the fourth quarter, which exceeded our expectation. For the full year, our ES revenue grew 8% on a reported basis and 7% on an organic constant currency basis, and our ES margin expanded 210 basis points. For the PEO segment, revenue increased 6% for the quarter as growth accelerated from Q3.

我們的 ES 利潤率在第四季度擴大了 220 個基點，超出了我們的預期。全年來看，我們的 ES 收入按報告基礎增長 8%，以有機固定匯率計算增長 7%，我們的 ES 利潤率擴大了 210 個基點。對於 PEO 部門，由於成長速度自第三季以來加快，本季營收成長了 6%。

Average worksite employees increased 3% on a year-over-year basis in the fourth quarter to 742,000. PEO margin contracted 240 basis points, slightly more than we anticipated due to higher operating expenses and unfavorable actuarial loss development in workers' compensation reserves.

第四季平均工作現場員工數量年增 3%，達到 742,000 人。PEO 利潤率收縮了 240 個基點，略高於我們的預期，原因是營運費用增加以及工人賠償儲備金的精算損失發展不利。

For the full year, PEO revenue grew 4%. Average worksite employees increased 2% and our margin contracted 150 basis points, with the margin contraction mostly due to less favorable actuarial loss development in workers' compensation reserves versus the prior year. Our fiscal 2024 PEO new business bookings growth rate also moderated from the prior year. I'll now share outlook for fiscal 2025. While the macro backdrop remains uncertain, we believe we are well positioned to deliver solid overall financial results while continuing to invest in our future growth consistent with our strategic priorities.

全年來看，PEO 收入成長了 4%。平均工作現場員工人數增加了 2%，而我們的利潤率收縮了 150 個基點，利潤率收縮主要是由於工人賠償儲備的精算損失發展與上一年相比不太有利。我們的 2024 財年 PEO 新業務預訂成長率也較前一年放緩。我現在將分享 2025 財年的展望。儘管宏觀背景仍不確定，但我們相信，我們有能力實現穩健的整體財務業績，同時繼續根據我們的策略重點投資於未來的成長。

Our fiscal 2025 outlook assumes some moderation in economic activity over the course of the year. Beginning with the ES segment, we expect revenue growth of 5% to 6%, driven by the following key assumptions. We expect ES new business bookings growth of 4% to 7%, representing solid growth after coming in at the high end of the same guidance in fiscal '24. For ES retention, we forecast a 10 basis point to 30 basis point decline from the 92% result for fiscal 2024.

我們對 2025 財年的展望假設全年經濟活動會有所放緩。從 ES 部門開始，我們預期營收成長率將達到 5% 至 6%，這得益於以下關鍵假設。我們預計 ES 新業務訂單成長率將達到 4% 至 7%，這代表在達到 24 財年相同指導方針的高端後實現穩健成長。對於 ES 保留率，我們預測 2024 財年的 92% 結果將下降 10 個基點至 30 個基點。

We are encouraged by our recent record client satisfaction scores, but we think it's prudent to continue to expect some retention pressure from higher small business out of business levels and slightly slower economic growth overall.

我們最近創下的客戶滿意度分數讓我們感到鼓舞，但我們認為，繼續預期小型企業倒閉率上升和整體經濟成長略有放緩將帶來一些留存壓力是明智之舉。

As we mentioned at our prior earnings call, we see the potential for below normal US pays per control growth in fiscal 2025. And our outlook assumes 1% to 2% growth for the year. This view is consistent with most economists forecast for continued moderation in US private sector payroll growth. After price contributed around 150 basis points to ES revenue growth in both fiscal '23 and fiscal '24, we anticipate a benefit closer to 100 basis points in fiscal '25, which is in-line with the moderation in overall inflation.

正如我們在先前的收益電話會議上提到的那樣，我們預計 2025 財年美國每項控制支出的成長可能會低於正常水準。我們預計今年的成長率為 1% 至 2%。這一觀點與大多數經濟學家對美國私部門薪資成長持續放緩的預測一致。在價格為 23 財年和 24 財年的 ES 收入成長貢獻了約 150 個基點之後，我們預計 25 財年的收益將接近 100 個基點，這與整體通膨的緩和相一致。

We also expect FX to transition from a modest tailwind to ES revenue growth in fiscal '24 to a slight headwind in fiscal '25. And for client funds interest revenue, the interest rate backdrop remains dynamic. And it's important to remember our client funds interest revenue forecast reflects the current forward yield curve, which is likely to continue to evolve as we move through fiscal '25.

我們也預計，外匯收入將從 24 財年的溫和順風轉變為 25 財年的輕微逆風。對於客戶資金利息收入而言，利率背景仍然動態。重要的是要記住，我們的客戶基金利息收入預測反映了當前的遠期殖利率曲線，隨著我們進入 25 財年，該曲線可能會繼續改變。

At this point, we expect our average yield to increase from 2.9% in fiscal '24 to 3.1% in fiscal '25, which contemplates the market's expectations for short-term interest rates to decrease during the year.

目前，我們預計平均殖利率將從 24 財年的 2.9% 上升至 25 財年的 3.1%，這考慮到了市場對年內短期利率下降的預期。

We expect our average client funds balances to grow 3% to 4% in fiscal 2025. Putting those together, we expect our client funds interest revenue to increase from $1.02 billion in fiscal 2024 to a range of $1.13 billion to $1.15 billion in fiscal 2025. Meanwhile, we expect net impact from our client fund strategy to increase to a range of $1 billion to $1.02 billion in fiscal '25.

我們預計，到 2025 財年，我們的平均客戶資金餘額將增加 3% 至 4%。綜合這些因素，我們預期客戶資金利息收入將從 2024 財年的 10.2 億美元增至 2025 財年的 11.3 億美元至 11.5 億美元。同時，我們預計我們的客戶基金策略的淨影響將在25財年增至10億美元至10.2億美元。

We expect ES margin to increase 100 to 120 basis points in fiscal 2025, driven by operating leverage as well as continued contribution from client funds interest revenue partially offset by ongoing investments to advance our key strategic priorities.

我們預計，到 2025 財年，ES 利潤率將增加 100 至 120 個基點，這主要得益於營運槓桿以及客戶資金利息收入的持續貢獻，但為推進我們的關鍵戰略重點而進行的持續投資將部分抵消這一影響。

Moving on to the PEO segment, we expect PEO revenue to grow 4% to 6% and PEO revenue excluding zero margin pass-throughs to grow 3% to 4% in fiscal '25. Our PEO revenue growth outlook assumes average worksite employee growth of 1% to 3%. This reflects our expectation for continued new business bookings growth and modestly better retention to be offset by declining PEO pays per control growth that remains below our historical experience.

談到 PEO 部分，我們預計 25 財年 PEO 營收將成長 4% 至 6%，不包括零利潤轉嫁的 PEO 營收將成長 3% 至 4%。我們的 PEO 收入成長前景假設平均工作現場員工成長率為 1% 至 3%。這反映了我們對新業務預訂量持續成長和略微更好的保留率的預期，但低於我們歷史經驗的 PEO 每次控制付費成長的下降將抵消這一預期。

We expect PEO margin to decrease 90 to 110 basis points in fiscal 2025. This anticipated margin decline reflects our forecast for zero margin pass-throughs to grow faster than PEO revenue and increase in our workers' compensation costs and higher PEO selling expense from accelerating new business bookings growth. Adding it all up, our consolidated revenue outlook is for 5% to 6% growth in fiscal 2025. And our adjusted EBIT margin outlook is for expansion of 60 to 80 basis points.

我們預計 2025 財年 PEO 利潤率將下降 90 至 110 個基點。預期的利潤率下降反映了我們對零利潤轉嫁成長速度快於 PEO 收入的預測，以及由於新業務訂單成長加速導致的工人賠償成本增加和 PEO 銷售費用增加。綜合起來，我們預計 2025 財年的綜合收入將成長 5% 至 6%。我們調整後的息稅前利潤率預期將擴大 60 至 80 個基點。

We expect our effective tax rate to be around 23%. And we expect fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS growth of 8% to 10% supported by buybacks. One quick note on our margin cadence. We anticipate adjusted EBIT margin expansion on a year-over-year basis to be more modest in the first half of the year before trends ramp in the second half of fiscal 2025.

我們預計我們的有效稅率約為23%。我們預計，在回購的推動下，2025 財年調整後每股盈餘將成長 8% 至 10%。關於我們的保證金節奏的一個簡短說明。我們預計，今年上半年調整後的息稅前利潤率年增將較為溫和，而到 2025 財年下半年，這一趨勢將有所提升。

Thank you. And I'll now turn it back to Michelle for Q&A.

謝謝。現在我將把時間交還給米歇爾進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Bryan Bergin, TD Cowen.

（操作員指示） Bryan Bergin，TD Cowen。

Hi. Good morning. Thank you. I want to start with bookings here. So sounds like a pretty solid close to the year. Can you provide more color on the attribution of that bookings performance across the business? And in general, I guess when you're looking at demand into July, just any changes based on employer size or geography?

你好。早安.謝謝。我想從這裡的預訂開始。聽起來今年的收官之作相當不錯。您能否提供更多關於整個業務預訂業績的歸因資訊？總的來說，我想當您查看 7 月的需求時，您會發現基於雇主規模或地理位置的任何變化嗎？

Sure, good morning, Bryan. Great to hear from you. I love talking about bookings, especially on the heels of what was truly an exceptional performance by the overall team in the fourth quarter.

當然，早上好，布萊恩。很高興收到你的來信。我喜歡談論預訂，特別是在第四季度整個團隊表現非常出色之後。

To answer the first part of the question, it was broad-based. So we did see strength across our growth in small business, mid-market, enterprise, and international. So we are really pleased with the momentum that we see as it relates to the overall receptivity to the offerings, to the product, to the execution, and really proud of how the team moved through the quarter, which led to the exceptional results at 7% for the year.

回答問題的第一部分，它是廣泛的。因此，我們確實看到了小型企業、中型市場、大型企業和國際市場的成長實力。因此，我們對所看到的勢頭感到非常高興，因為它與對產品、產品和執行的整體接受度有關，並且對團隊在本季度的表現感到非常自豪，這導致了全年 7% 的出色業績。

In terms of the demand environment overall and what we see, what I would offer is that the HCM demand environment remains strong. One of the things that's unique about HCM is what we do, it's not a nice to have, it is actually an imperative for a company to run their business. They need to have their associates pay, they need HR tools, and certainly it's not getting any easier.

就整體需求環境和我們所看到的情況而言，我認為 HCM 需求環境仍然強勁。HCM 的獨特之處之一在於我們所做的事情，它不是一件可有可無的事情，而是公司經營的必需品。他們需要讓員工支付工資，他們需要人力資源工具，而且這肯定不會變得更容易。

Whether you're in the down-market, mid-market, up-market, to navigate being an employer. And as such, we fit squarely into that. So we feel good about the momentum stepping out of the quarter. We feel good about the demand environment stepping into the quarter. Pipelines from a year-on-year perspective look strong. So we're very optimistic and proud of the performance.

無論您處於低端市場、中端市場還是高端市場，都可以作為雇主進行導航。因此，我們完全符合這項要求。因此，我們對本季的發展勢頭感到滿意。我們對本季的需求環境感到樂觀。從同比角度來看，管道狀況強勁。因此，我們對這項表現非常樂觀和自豪。

Okay, I appreciate that. And then my follow-up, just on pays per control performance here, can you compare and contrast the pays per control performance in ES versus what you're seeing on the same store sale, PPC and PEO. And any cadence assumptions here as you go through '25?

好的，我很感激。然後我的後續問題是，僅關於這裡的每次控制付費表現，您能否比較和對比 ES 中的每次控制付費表現與您在同一商店銷售、PPC 和 PEO 中看到的表現。當您經歷 '25 時，這裡有任何節奏假設嗎？

Yeah, Bryan, I'll take that one. So as we look at pays per control, we do think that the labor market is still pretty resilient. I mean, there are a number of factors that we look to. And, you know, if you look at the BLS, you look at the unemployment rate, JOLTS Report came in the other day, it was down, but better than expected. Labor force participation still got some room to go, et cetera. So jobless claims are kind of neither here nor there. They're benign. So we think there's still continued good strength in the market.

是的，布萊恩，我會接受這個。因此，當我們觀察每次控制的工資時，我們確實認為勞動市場仍然相當有彈性。我的意思是，我們要考慮很多因素。而且，你知道，如果你看一下美國勞工統計局 (BLS)，你會看到失業率，前幾天發布的 JOLTS 報告顯示，失業率有所下降，但好於預期。勞動參與率仍有上升空間，等等。因此，失業救濟申請並沒有什麼實際意義。它們是良性的。因此我們認為市場仍將保持強勁勢頭。

Having said that, we do think that pays per control is going to moderate. And we have said we're thinking 1% to 2%, as we go forward into 2025. I would say that we do expect that the pays per control growth in the PEO will be lower than it is in ES, but we are still optimistic that there's growth to be had, but certainly we expect ES to be somewhat stronger than we expect PEO.

話雖如此，我們確實認為每次控制的付費將會減少。我們說過，到 2025 年，我們考慮將成長率提高 1% 到 2%。我想說的是，我們確實預計 PEO 中的每項控制支出成長將低於 ES，但我們仍然樂觀地認為將會有成長，但我們肯定會預期 ES 會比我們預期的 PEO 更強勁一些。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan Dolev, Mizuho.

瑞穗的丹‧多列夫 (Dan Dolev)。

Oh, thanks guys for taking my question. You know just to touch again on ES, like -- I want to know like how much of that strength is idiosyncratic and things that you're doing internally versus the macro. And then maybe the follow-up is again asking about the guidance and like maybe you can layout you know what could go well and what could go wrong in terms of the macro -- the underlying macro for the guide that would be it. Thank you.

哦，謝謝大家回答我的問題。您知道，只需再次觸及 ES，就像 - 我想知道這種優勢有多少是特殊的，以及您在內部做的事情與宏觀上做的事情相比有多少。然後也許後續會再次詢問指導意見，也許你可以佈局一下，從宏觀角度來說，你知道什麼可能進展順利，什麼可能出錯——指南的底層宏觀就是這樣。謝謝。

Yeah Dan. So you know just to follow up on that, I would say that you could will unemployment remain as low as it has been? I think there's no indication that it's going to worsen. It's still at, decade lows or comparable to decade lows. There is good strength, there seems to be good strength across the broader spectrum of new jobs. So the NER report came out earlier today and we're continuing to see new jobs.

是的，丹。因此，為了進一步跟進這個問題，我想問一下，失業率還會維持在目前的低水準嗎？我認為沒有跡象表明情況會惡化。它仍然處於十年來的最低點或與十年來的最低點相當。有很好的實力，在更廣泛的新工作領域似乎都有很好的實力。因此，NER 報告今天早些時候發布，我們繼續看到新的工作。

So I think that we put out there a PPC growth number that's realistic. What could change that? We could imagine all kinds of macro issues, but I prefer not to do any imagining. I think we're trying to do what we can based on what we know today. So I think that what we have today is pretty good. But as I mentioned earlier to Bryan's question, we certainly recognize that ES is likely to be stronger than PEO.

所以我認為我們提出的 PPC 成長數字是現實的。什麼可以改變這種狀況？我們可以想像各種宏觀問題，但我寧願不做任何想像。我認為我們正在根據目前所知盡力而為。所以我認為我們今天所擁有的已經相當不錯了。但正如我之前回答 Bryan 的問題時提到的那樣，我們當然認識到 ES 可能比 PEO 更強。

And Dan, if I can just add on the sales side, just with respect to -- are we driving the results as it being driven by Macro? My answer to you would be both. And so I think we have a strong demand environment. I touched on that during Bryan's question in terms of our offer and how squarely it fits into that demand environment. And that's really a broad-based execution across the entire business.

丹，我可以補充一下銷售方面嗎？就宏觀經濟而言，我們推動業績的因素是什麼？我的答案是兩者皆有。因此我認為我們擁有強勁的需求環境。當布萊恩提問時，我談到了我們的報價以及它如何適應需求環境。這實際上是整個業務範圍內的廣泛執行。

So it is the investments we've made into our products. It is the best-in-class service that we have. We see that in the NPS results, by the way we see that in our retention results as well.

這就是我們對產品所做的投資。這是我們提供的最佳服務。我們在 NPS 結果中看到了這一點，順便說一下，我們在保留結果中也看到了這一點。

And so I think we've been getting stronger and stronger. I think the value proposition of what we offer is an imperative for businesses. And then once again, I would say, yeah, we are executing incredibly well across the full spectrum of our sales differentiation. I mentioned in the prepared remarks, I consider it to be one of the greatest competitive advantages that ADP has. Part of that is our ability to canvas the entire market.

所以我認為我們會變得越來越強大。我認為我們提供的價值主張對企業來說是不可或缺的。然後我再說一次，是的，我們在整個銷售差異化領域表現得非常好。我在準備好的發言中提到，我認為這是 ADP 最大的競爭優勢之一。其中一部分是我們調查整個市場的能力。

So whether buyers trying to buy digitally, or they're trying to buy through a channel, or they're trying to buy the traditional way, like we show up at every single turn, and we lean right into that with the best product and the best service out there. And as a result of all of those things, I think we are executing very well.

因此，無論買家是嘗試透過數位方式購買，還是嘗試透過管道購買，或者嘗試以傳統方式購買，我們都會出現在每個角落，並透過最好的產品和最好的服務來滿足他們的需求。由於所有這些因素，我認為我們的執行情況非常好。

Great results. Thank you.

效果非常好。謝謝。

James Faucette, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

Great. Thank you so much. I wanted to ask on competition. Some of our recent conversations with those in the industry have kind of indicated that there's been some meaningful price compression from some of your competitors, particularly in the mid and down market segments. Have you observed others getting more competitive on price or from your perspective, is it fairly status quo right now?

偉大的。太感謝了。我想問一下比賽的狀況。我們最近與業內人士進行的一些對話表明，你們的一些競爭對手已經採取了一些明顯的價格壓縮措施，特別是在中低端市場。您是否觀察到其他公司在價格上變得更具競爭力，或者從您的角度來看，目前的情況是否相當現狀？

Good morning James. What I would offer is it is pretty status quo. We haven't really observed any of those meaningful price compression, things of that nature. Given how much we do compete, I think we would see -- I'd say, that there is always some of that in terms of whether it is promotions and things that all of us run at various times throughout the year. But it doesn't seem atypical for me. And obviously, I've spent a lot of years watching the competitive landscape and the sales environment.

早安，詹姆斯。我想說的是，這是相當現狀。我們還沒有真正觀察到任何有意義的價格壓縮或諸如此類的事情。考慮到我們之間的競爭有多激烈，我想我們會看到——我想說，無論是促銷還是我們所有人在一年中的不同時間開展的活動，總會有一些這樣的情況。但對我來說這似乎並不罕見。顯然，我花了很多年觀察競爭格局和銷售環境。

So I haven't seen anything anomalous. I think the one thing that's changed, specifically in the competitive landscape is us. And so when I think about our ability to execute, and everything I just mentioned, best product, record retention, record NPS, incredible execution by sales. I think we are stronger than we've ever been. So I'd say, that's the shift. But from our purposes, it is still a competitive environment and we lean into it every single day.

所以我沒有看到任何異常。我認為唯一改變的，特別是在競爭格局中，就是我們自己。因此，當我考慮我們的執行能力以及我剛才提到的一切時，最佳產品、記錄保留、記錄 NPS、令人難以置信的銷售執行力。我認為我們比以往任何時候都更強大。所以我想說，這就是轉變。但從我們的目的來看，這仍然是一個競爭環境，我們每天都會投入其中。

Great. Glad to hear that. And then wondering if you can give a little bit more color on the composition of bookings, especially between enterprise, mid-market and down market. And also, what are you seeing in the international business? And how should we think about the potential uplift there over time, as price points in lower-cost regions continue to improve?

偉大的。很高興聽到這個消息。然後想知道您是否可以提供更多關於預訂構成的詳細信息，特別是企業、中端市場和低端市場之間的預訂組成。另外，您在國際業務方面看到了什麼？隨著低成本地區的價格不斷提高，我們應該如何看待那裡隨著時間的推移而出現的潛在增長？

What I would offer is that the down market had incredible strength by the way on top of incredible strength last year. I think I mentioned -- or I did mention during the prepared remarks, we onboarded, we sold and started 50,000 new clients in small business in the fourth quarter alone. So we are officially got 890,000 of our 1.1 million clients are in that down market space. And so we continue just to see broad-based demand. And again, we're executing very well on that.

我想說的是，順便說一下，今年的低迷市場在去年令人難以置信的強勁表現的基礎上，又出現了令人難以置信的強勁表現。我想我提到過——或者我在準備好的演講中確實提到過，僅在第四季度，我們就吸收、銷售並啟動了 50,000 個小型企業新客戶。因此，在我們的 110 萬客戶中，有 89 萬處於低迷的市場空間。因此，我們繼續看到廣泛的需求。而且，我們在這方面執行得非常好。

Our mid-market sales results were phenomenal. Just an incredible execution by the team. Again, our product has been getting newer and stronger, so feel really good about that. I mentioned also in the prepared remarks what we saw in the enterprise space, specifically with respect to our next-gen HCM offering.

我們的中端市場銷售業績非常出色。團隊的表現令人難以置信。再次，我們的產品變得越來越更新、更強大，所以對此感到非常高興。我在準備好的演講中也提到了我們在企業領域看到的情況，特別是關於我們的下一代 HCM 產品。

One of the reasons I'm so excited about this is that we are seeing record results, we are seeing more than we anticipated, quite significantly more than we anticipated. And we are not even at general availability yet. And what that suggests to me is that the market is ready for this offering -- the market is excited about this offering. We see clients wanting to buy in the enterprise space from ADP, and we are stepping into that opportunity. So that's the distribution. Very strong strength.

我對此感到如此興奮的原因之一是，我們看到了創紀錄的成果，我們看到的成果超出了我們的預期，遠遠超出了我們的預期。但我們甚至還沒有全面上市。對我來說，這表明市場已經為此次發行做好了準備——市場對此次發行感到興奮。我們看到客戶希望從 ADP 購買企業領域的產品，我們正在抓住這個機會。這就是分佈。很強的實力。

You asked about international specifically. International had a fantastic year overall. So it was really the story of four quarters. I think first quarter of last year was strong over year-on-year first quarter of 2023. Second quarter got even stronger. Third quarter got even stronger than that. And fourth quarter, you'll probably guess got even stronger than that. So overall, our international business had just a fantastic year as well.

您具體詢問了國際狀況。整體而言，國際隊今年的表現非常出色。所以這其實是四個季度的故事。我認為去年第一季的表現比 2023 年第一季的年比表現更強勁。第二季表現更加強勁。第三季表現甚至比這更強勁。您可能猜到第四季度的表現會比這更加強勁。整體而言，我們的國際業務今年也表現十分出色。

That's great. I appreciate all the color, Maria.

那太棒了。我很欣賞所有的色彩，瑪麗亞。

Ramsey El-Assal, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊‧埃爾-阿薩勒 (Ramsey El-Assal)。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I wonder if you could comment on how you're thinking about the balance -- striking a balance between pricing and retention and just -- also speak to your confidence level about being able to take that 100 basis points of pricing, which I think is more than you took sort of pre-pandemic, although less than you've been taking in this really inflationary environment. How are you -- how confident are you that you can take that without tipping retention in the wrong direction?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您如何看待這種平衡——在定價和保留之間取得平衡——同時談談您對能夠接受 100 個基點的定價的信心水平，我認為這比您在疫情前接受的要多，儘管比您在這種通脹環境下接受的要少。您如何——您有多大信心能夠做到這一點，而不會將保留率推向錯誤的方向？

Thanks for the question Ramsey. Yeah, it is a great question because we always think really, really hard about pricing decisions and making sure that we don't get greedy. As we've shared on many occasions, what we are interested in is long-term clients and the lifetime value of those clients. So we are always very, very careful not to over rotate on price. And you are right, we have been able to take about 150 basis points in '23 and '24.

感謝拉姆齊提出的問題。是的，這是一個很好的問題，因為我們總是認真思考定價決策並確保我們不會貪婪。正如我們多次分享的那樣，我們感興趣的是長期客戶及其終身價值。因此，我們總是非常非常小心，避免價格過度波動。您說得對，我們在 23 年和 24 年已經能夠獲得大約 150 個基點。

And as we look to '25 and we looked at the moderating inflation environment, we thought that 100 basis points is realistic. If we go back pre '23 and back into the teens we were more on the 50 basis points range, but the inflation environment was very, very different then it was virtually not existent. So we are confident that we can get 100 basis points. We are confident that we can target it in the right places. So it is something that we think is a reasonable expectation for us to target.

當我們展望 25 年並看到通膨環境緩和時，我們認為 100 個基點是現實的。如果我們回到 23 年之前，回到十幾歲的時候，我們的通膨率更接近 50 個基點的範圍，但通膨環境非常非常不同，那時通膨率幾乎不存在。所以我們有信心獲得100個基點。我們有信心，能夠將其瞄準正確的位置。因此，我們認為這是我們所期望的合理目標。

Okay. And a follow-up for me is about generative AI. And just if you could talk about how we should think about the long-term opportunity there in terms of monetization. Is this ever something that could contribute to revenue directly? Or is this -- is generative AI sort of more something that will drive soft dollars to retention, new bookings? Obviously, there is an expense benefit internally. But I'm just curious about how you're framing it up over the long term.

好的。我的後續內容是關於產生人工智慧。您能否談談我們應該如何看待貨幣化的長期機會？這是否能直接增加收入？或者說——生成式人工智慧更像是一種能夠推動軟美元用於保留和新預訂的東西？顯然，內部存在費用收益。但我只是好奇你從長遠來看是如何構思的。

It's a great question. My answer to you would be both. And so from a generative AI perspective, I know you know that I love to speak about it. I talked about it again at length just this morning during the prepared remarks.

這是一個很好的問題。我的答案是兩者皆有。因此，從生成人工智慧的角度來看，我知道你知道我喜歡談論它。就在今天早上的準備好的發言中，我再次詳細談論了這個問題。

What I'd offer is that all across, whether it is the focus we have of putting generative AI, ADP Assist across and into each one of our products, or it is the work that we're doing with putting ADP Assist into the market to help practitioners, or help our own service associates and our sales associates, the way I think about it, first and foremost is exactly what you suggested, which is it should feed the ADP model.

我想說的是，無論我們專注於將生成式人工智慧、ADP Assist 融入到我們的每一款產品中，還是我們將 ADP Assist 推向市場以幫助從業者，或幫助我們自己的服務夥伴和銷售夥伴，我對此的看法首先就是您所建議的，即它應該為 ADP 模型提供支援。

And in its most simplistic form when I think about this company and driving the recurring revenue model that we have, it is about sales, it is about retention, it is about product efficiency and it's about NPS. And those four metrics, generative AI and everything that we are offering as it relates to ADP Assist should feed, call it the machine of our model, right?

當我想到這家公司並推動我們現有的經常性收入模式時，最簡單的形式就是銷售、保留、產品效率和 NPS。這四個指標、生成性人工智慧以及我們提供的與 ADP Assist 相關的一切都應該稱之為我們模型的機器，對嗎？

So we should have more sales, we should be able to keep clients. Why? Because they are happier and they have a better experience as it relates to NPS. And then in turn, we also drive efficiency. So I think that's the output and the outcome of a lot of the investments we are making.

所以我們應該有更多的銷售額，我們應該要能夠留住客戶。為什麼？因為他們更快樂，並且在 NPS 方面擁有更好的體驗。反過來，我們也提高了效率。所以我認為這就是我們所做的大量投資的產出和成果。

That said, as we look at all the use cases and both the short-term stuff that we're working on, as well as the long-term vision of what ultimately generative AI could look like in the coming years, we do see monetization opportunities. And each one of our business cases, as you can imagine, has clear goals of what it is that we are trying to accomplish, inclusive of revenue growth.

也就是說，當我們審視所有用例以及我們正在研究的短期專案以及未來幾年最終產生人工智慧的長期願景時，我們確實看到了貨幣化機會。你可以想像，我們的每一個商業案例都有明確的目標，包括我們要實現的營收成長。

I think it's too early to start sharing some of those broadly across the market. But certainly, that's a big piece of our strategy, as is making sure that we continue to drive the transformation type of opportunities that we've been driving for years as a company.

我認為現在開始在市場上廣泛分享其中一些資訊還為時過早。但毫無疑問，這是我們策略的重要組成部分，確保我們繼續推動公司多年來一直在推動的轉型機會。

Fantastic. Thank you.

極好的。謝謝。

Samad Samana, Jefferies.

薩瑪德·薩馬納（Samad Samana），傑富瑞集團。

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Don, maybe one for you. Just on the PEO guidance, and I apologize if this question is kind of a dumb question, but I just want to make sure I understood it. If I look back to last year, you had actually a slightly better WSE assumption, and you guided to 3% to 5%.

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。唐，也許有一個適合你。僅關於 PEO 指導，如果這個問題有點愚蠢，我深表歉意，但我只是想確保我理解了它。如果我回顧去年，你對 WSE 的假設其實稍微好一些，你預測的是 3% 到 5%。

And this year, you are assuming lower WSE growth but actually slightly better revenue growth. And I was just trying to reconcile those two things. Is retention assumptions the big difference there? Or is there some other mechanical thing, it is easier comps? I'm just trying to understand the PEO guidance this year versus last year.

今年，您預計華爾街英語的成長速度會較低，但實際上收入成長速度會略有提高。我只是想調和這兩件事。保留假設有很大差別嗎？或者是否有其他機械因素，使其更容易組合？我只是想了解今年與去年相比的 PEO 指導。

No, Samad, it is a great question. So there are a few things happening if you look forward to 2025, revenue is growing, but the biggest contributor to the revenue growth is zero margin pass-throughs. So that's the largest component, and that's what's happening there. And then, of course, we have mentioned earlier that pays per control are under pressure.

不，薩馬德，這是一個很好的問題。因此，如果你展望 2025 年，你會發現一些事情會發生，收入正在成長，但收入成長的最大貢獻者是零利潤轉嫁。這是最大的組成部分，這就是那裡發生的事情。當然，我們之前提到過，每次控制的付費都面臨壓力。

So as I said in an earlier answer, 1% to 2% for ES, and we think more towards the low end of that for the PEO area. And then we have a little bit of pressure from workman's compensation on the margin. And I guess the third thing is we do continue to focus on the area to get sales reaccelerating. So we certainly have more selling expense baked in to that business to help drive the top-line and make sure we get to continue to grow our worksite employees.

正如我在先前的回答中所說，ES 的比例為 1% 到 2%，而我們認為 PEO 區域的比例更接近這個數字的低端。然後，我們在工人賠償方面面臨一點壓力。我想第三件事就是我們確實會繼續關注該領域以重新加速銷售。因此，我們肯定會在該業務中投入更多的銷售費用，以幫助推動營業收入並確保我們能夠繼續增加工作現場員工。

Understood. And Maria, if I take just one huge step back, the business is very strong right now, and it seems like that's happening in what is a backdrop that is slowing. And so I just was wondering, you've been at ADP for a long time, you've seen multiple cycles, can you just remind us that when you see a broader slowdown in the backdrop, just how you still are able to drive value and what the performance of the business has historically been in these slowdown periods, because I think we are all impressed by the durability of the strength even as things may be slow in the backdrop?

明白了。瑪麗亞，如果我退一步來看，現在的業務非常強勁，而且似乎這是在經濟放緩的背景下發生的。所以我只是想知道，您在 ADP 工作了很長時間，您已經看到了多個週期，您能否提醒我們，當您看到背景下更廣泛的放緩時，您仍然能夠推動價值，以及業務在這些放緩時期的歷史表現如何，因為我認為，即使在背景下事情可能進展緩慢，我們都對實力的持久性印象深刻？

Yeah. Thanks, Samad. And you are right. I think the durability of what it is that we offer, I spoke to it a bit earlier in terms of the imperative of HCM, I think that durability also lends itself to a different environment should the macro change. So the sales force of ADP, if you will our offering is great in times of growth, it is great in times of steady, and it's also great as a conduit as there might be pressure in the employer environment.

是的。謝謝，薩馬德。你是對的。我認為我們所提供產品的耐用性，我之前在 HCM 的必要性方面談到了這一點，我認為如果宏觀發生變化，耐用性也適用於不同的環境。因此，如果您願意的話，ADP 的銷售團隊在成長時期提供的服務非常出色，在穩定時期提供的服務也非常出色，而且在雇主環境中可能存在壓力的情況下，它也可以作為一種很好的管道。

And so the value proposition, we have a playbook. We can adjust very, very quickly in terms of what it is that we offer and as the demand environment shift. Now that said, should there be a huge decline in the macro, of course we will be impacted. One of the things that does end up getting impacted is bookings. But at the same time, from a standpoint of the self-adjustment of that value proposition, it's very durable, and it is very durable, as a result of HCM being an imperative.

因此，對於價值主張，我們有一個劇本。我們可以非常快速地調整我們提供的產品以及需求環境的變化。話雖如此，如果宏觀經濟大幅下滑，我們當然會受到影響。最終受到影響的事情之一就是預訂。但同時，從該價值主張的自我調整的角度來看，它非常持久，而且由於 HCM 是當務之急，因此非常持久。

And so we feel good about our ability to flex. And I've seen that, to your point Samad, I've been here a long time, as a student of ADP's great distribution, and I've seen that flex over time and have all the confidence that the team would do the same. I think maybe Don could also talk about the -- how that financial model, should something shift in the market, the financial model also self-adjusts as it relates to the playbook, if you will in a different macro.

因此，我們對自己的靈活變通能力感到滿意。我已經看到了這一點，正如你所說，薩馬德，我在這裡已經很長時間了，作為 ADP 出色分銷的學生，我已經看到了這種隨著時間的推移而發生的變化，並且完全有信心團隊也會這樣做。我認為也許唐可以談談 - 如果市場發生變化，財務模型也會根據劇本進行自我調整，如果你願意在不同的宏觀層面上進行討論的話。

Yeah, certainly. We've talked about this before. But if we go back a year or so, I think -- or maybe 18 months, the word recession was on people's lips a lot more frequently than it is today. I think the latest survey I've seen says that there is about a 28% probability of recession in the next 12 months. I'm sure that's some survey that the rest of you have read somewhere as well. So the good news is, it looks very unlikely that we are going to have a recession over the next 12 months.

是的，當然。我們之前已經討論過這個問題。但如果我們回顧一下一年前或一年半前，我想，那時「衰退」這個詞出現在人們嘴邊的頻率比現在高得多。我認為我看到的最新調查顯示，未來 12 個月出現經濟衰退的可能性約為 28%。我確信你們其他人也一定在某處讀過這項調查。因此，好消息是，未來 12 個月內我們陷入經濟衰退的可能性很小。

But certainly, as an all-weather company, what we do isn't discretionary. You have to do it. The levers we have, if sales slow commissions slow, if implementations slow, we don't need as much headcount, et cetera, et cetera. But I think, as we saw in 2008, it took a long time for ADP to find itself in a place that looked like a lot of adjustment. So we think that we can use those tools again should we need to. But I'll just finish with hopefully, that survey is correct and nobody is thinking about a recession in the next 12 months.

但可以肯定的是，作為一家全天候公司，我們所做的事情並不是隨意的。你必須這麼做。我們擁有的槓桿是，如果銷售放緩、佣金放緩、實施放緩，我們就不需要那麼多員工，等等。但我認為，正如我們在 2008 年看到的那樣，ADP 花了很長時間才找到一個看起來需要大量調整的位置。因此我們認為，如果需要的話，我們可以再次使用這些工具。但我最後還是希望，這項調查是正確的，沒有人擔心未來 12 個月會出現經濟衰退。

Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.

偉大的。非常感謝。謝謝。

Mark Marcon, Baird.

馬克馬孔，貝爾德。

Hi, good morning. And thanks for taking my questions. Congrats on the strong bookings in the fourth quarter as well as the really strong retention. I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into both. With regards to the strong bookings, Maria, you cited on the small business side, RUN doing extremely well, getting 50,000 new clients. Can you talk a little bit about what the source of those clients are? Were those clients that were using competitive solutions? Were they brand-new business formations? How would you characterize that? Where are you seeing the strength and the takeaways from?

嗨，早安。感謝您回答我的問題。恭喜第四季度的強勁預訂量以及強勁的保留率。我想對這兩者進行更深入的探討。關於強勁的預訂量，瑪麗亞，您提到在小型企業方面，RUN 表現非常好，獲得了 50,000 名新客戶。您能否稍微談談這些客戶的來源是什麼？這些客戶是否正在使用競爭解決方案？它們是全新的商業型態嗎？您如何描述這一點？您從哪裡看到了優勢和收穫？

Sure. So on the down market specifically as it relates to bookings, the bookings again, are broad-based, right? So where are we getting them? We are getting them from digital inbound, we're getting them from new businesses, we are getting them through the ecosystem of our channels, so clients that are engaging with banks, CPAs. Again, we canvass the entire market.

當然。因此，在低迷的市場中，特別是與預訂相關的市場，預訂量又是廣泛的，對嗎？那我們要從哪裡得到它們呢？我們從數位入站獲取客戶，從新業務獲取客戶，透過我們的通路生態系統獲取客戶，因此客戶正在與銀行、註冊會計師接觸。再次，我們調查了整個市場。

That said, some of the things that we have seen, Mark, year-on-year new business formations, it is still at an elevated rate, but it is pressurized. So sorry, year-on-year, it is minus 3%, but it's still elevated compared to norm. And so as a result of that, we did see less coming this time from new business formations. Now we had a lot come from new business formation, but we also saw an increase in balance of trade, some more coming from the competition.

儘管如此，馬克，我們看到的一些情況是，新業務的成立數量同比仍然保持在較高水平，但壓力很大。很抱歉，與去年同期相比，下降了 3%，但與正常水平相比仍然較高。因此，我們這次確實看到新成立的企業數量減少了。現在，我們有很多收入來自新企業的成立，但我們也看到貿易平衡的成長，還有一些收入來自競爭。

So what I would say is mix shifted a little bit in terms of how we broadly canvass the down market. All that rolled up to this incredible result of 50,000 units in the fourth quarter. So it is broad-based, but there are tiny bit of shifts within that to answer your question specifically.

因此我想說的是，就我們如何廣泛調查低迷市場而言，組合發生了一些變化。所有這些因素共同促成了第四季度 50,000 台銷量的驚人成績。因此，它是廣泛的，但其中有一些細微的變化可以具體回答你的問題。

Great. And then on next-gen HCM, you also mentioned a 50% pickup there in terms of new sales. And this is before you are fully GA. Can you talk a little bit about what the source of the wins are in terms of -- are these clients that are transitioning from older ADP platforms? Or are they coming from competitors? And if it's from competitors, what sort of competitors?

偉大的。關於下一代 HCM，您也提到新銷售額將成長 50%。這是在您完全 GA 之前。您能否稍微談談成功的根源——這些客戶是從舊的 ADP 平台過渡過來的嗎？還是他們來自競爭對手？如果是來自競爭對手，那麼是什麼樣的競爭對手？

Sure. The answer is both. And also head-to-head against competition. So some of them are ADP upgrades. We did see more new logos than we've seen before. So we are really excited about the net new wins to ADP. Some of those were wins and takeaways from enterprise competitors.

當然。答案是兩者皆有。並與競爭對手進行正面交鋒。因此其中一些是 ADP 升級。我們確實看到了比以前更多的新標誌。因此，我們對 ADP 的淨新收益感到非常興奮。其中一些是來自企業競爭對手的勝利和收穫。

Some of them were wins head-to-head against the same said enterprise competitors, which again is probably why I'm so optimistic about it, because it appears that the offer that we have is competing incredibly well in the market and clients are choosing ADP.

其中一些是在與同一企業競爭對手的正面交鋒中取得的勝利，這可能也是我如此樂觀的原因，因為看起來我們提供的產品在市場上的競爭力非常強，客戶也選擇了 ADP。

That's great. And then with regards to client retention, I know you are guiding prudently for a normalization. But it seems like your client satisfaction scores continue to trend up. How would you characterize the primary drivers of the improved client satisfaction? Is it the solution set? Or is it the service underlying, or a combination of both?

那太棒了。關於客戶保留，我知道您正在謹慎地引導正常化。但看起來您的客戶滿意度分數持續呈上升趨勢。您如何描述提高客戶滿意度的主要驅動因素？它是解集嗎？還是服務底層，或是兩者的結合？

It is a combination of both. NPS is fantastic. So NPS for the quarter as well as the full year was a record. Almost every single business is at a record NPS. So what drives NPS? It is that both, right? So it is the investments we've made into our best-in-class products. And this is years that we've been making these investments and making our products newer and more modern taking friction out, making them more self-service.

這是兩者的結合。NPS 非常棒。因此本季以及全年的 NPS 都創下了紀錄。幾乎每家企業的 NPS 都創下了歷史新高。那麼，是什麼推動了 NPS 的發展呢？是兩者都有吧？這就是我們對一流產品所做的投資。多年來，我們一直在進行這些投資，使我們的產品更新、更現代化，消除摩擦，使其更加自助服務。

All of these things that go into having best-in-class HCM technology, those investments coupled with best-in-class service, is driving the broad NPS record that we have across the business. So as such, that is a direct correlator to a record retention.

所有這些因素都與擁有一流的 HCM 技術有關，這些投資加上一流的服務，推動我們在整個業務中擁有廣泛的 NPS 記錄。因此，這與記錄保留直接相關。

And so we are really proud of the 92%. You are right. We're prudently guiding into the year again. And the reason behind that is, as you know we've had this conversation many times, is that there is still perhaps some normalization that could happen, and also because we are executing at all-time highs almost across every single business. We just want to be thoughtful as we step into the year to make sure that the retention guide is prudent.

因此，我們真的為這 92% 感到自豪。你是對的。我們再次謹慎地邁入新的一年。而背後的原因是，正如你所知，我們已經討論過很多次了，也許還會有一些正常化發生，也是因為我們幾乎在每一個業務上都達到了歷史最高水平。我們只是想在進入新的一年時深思熟慮，確保保留指南是審慎的。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Tien-Tsin Huang, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的黃天津。

Hi. Perfect. Just want to extend on the retention, but more on the outlook side, if that's okay. Just any callouts expectation-wise across the segments, small, mid, and large? I know you've commented on balance of trade already, but I didn't know if you are seeing anything different in terms of expectations on retention.

你好。完美的。只是想延長保留期，但更多的是在展望方面，如果可以的話。只是對小型、中型和大型細分市場有任何期望嗎？我知道您已經對貿易平衡發表了評論，但我不知道您是否在保留預期方面看到了什麼不同。

Yeah, fair. What I would offer is it is the same reason that we guided into the year, this year the way that we did, this year that we just closed, it is expected potential normalization in the down market. Now I've been saying that for the last couple of years. It isn't -- yeah I know. The down market isn't entirely normalized back to where it was pre-pandemic. Now I get that that's five years ago and it may be at some point, we all have to just suggest that it is the new normal.

是的，公平。我想說的是，這與我們今年的預測相同，今年我們的做法，我們剛結束的今年，預計低迷的市場可能會恢復正常。過去幾年我一直在說這個。事實並非如此——是的，我知道。低迷的市場尚未完全恢復到疫情前的正常水準。現在我明白那是五年前的事了，也許在某個時候，我們都必須認為這是新的常態。

But we haven't seen an uptick in bankruptcies, out of business at the levels that we used to see in that business. And as such, we believe it is prudent that there could still be some of that normalization. So it's really the same thing that we've been suggesting. It just hasn't happened yet. And our goal would be of course, to not have it happen again.

但我們並沒有看到破產和停業的情況像過去那樣大幅增加。因此，我們認為，謹慎起見，仍然可以實現一定程度的正常化。所以這實際上和我們一直建議的是同一件事。只是還沒發生而已。我們的目標當然是不再發生這種事。

Yes. And you did outperform, obviously the guidance you set last year this time, so okay. No, I just wanted to check. I think this -- again, you've said prudent and totally agree with that. Just my quick follow-up just is on the margin front. I know it is very typical margin expansion. I think you did call it last quarter, maybe a little bit more investment in G&A. Anything different in terms of incremental margin outlook for fiscal 2025? It does look like you have a workforce rebalancing in the fourth quarter as well. So I just want to make sure we call it the puts and takes there on the margin front. Thank you.

是的。而且顯然你的表現確實超出了你去年這次設定的預期，所以好吧。不，我只是想檢查一下。我認為這一點——再次強調，您說的是謹慎，我完全同意這一點。我的快速跟進只是在邊緣方面。我知道這是非常典型的利潤擴張。我認為您上個季度確實提到過，也許在 G&A 方面會多一點投資。2025 財年的增量利潤前景有何不同？看起來你們在第四季也經歷了勞動力的重新平衡。所以我只是想確保我們在保證金方面稱之為看跌期權和看漲期權。謝謝。

Yeah. So Tien-Tsin, thanks for the question. I think that we are always -- I'll start with where you ended there. We are always looking at the workforce and making sure we're -- we've got the right people in the right places and the right numbers of people in the right places. So we're always looking at that. I don't think there is any real specific callouts on the margin. I think that there are some Gen AI investments. These are modest, but they do attract 10, 20 bps here and there, so to speak. But they are modest all things considered.

是的。所以 Tien-Tsin，謝謝你的提問。我認為我們總是——我將從你結束的地方開始。我們始終關注勞動力，確保我們將合適的人才安排在合適的職位，並將合適數量的人員安排在合適的位置。所以我們一直在關注這一點。我認為邊緣上沒有任何真正具體的標註。我認為有一些關於人工智慧的投資。這些幅度不大，但確實能吸引到 10 到 20 個基點的利率。但總體來說，他們還是很謙虛的。

Certainly, the margin next year would get a little bit of pressure from lower pays per control from lower pricing increases and from lower client fund interest, most specifically in the back half. But I think those are all things that we've called out and you can read through. So nothing abnormal.

當然，明年的利潤率會受到一點壓力，因為價格上漲幅度較低、客戶基金利息較低，尤其是在下半年。但我認為這些都是我們已經指出的事情，你可以仔細閱讀。所以沒什麼異常。

Yeah. No, glad to see it's typical. And congrats to Danny and Matt as well. Thanks guys.

是的。不，很高興看到它很典型。也祝賀丹尼和馬特。謝謝大家。

Bryan Keane, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的布萊恩·基恩。

Hi guys. Congrats on the quarter really strong in ES. On PEO, the bookings were accelerating and recovering in fiscal year '24 but moderated towards the end of the fiscal year. So just want to understand what changed in the marketplace there.

嗨，大家好。恭喜 ES 本季表現強勁。在 PEO 方面，24 財年的預訂量正在加速成長並復甦，但在財年末有所放緩。所以只是想了解那裡的市場發生了什麼變化。

Sure. Good morning, and thank you by the way. I appreciate the congrats. PEO bookings did moderate a bit in the back half. And from a year-on-year perspective, it did moderate as well. That said there was still strong growth in PEO bookings. And so from my vantage point, the demand equation is still incredibly strong for the PEO. It was a slight moderation year-on-year. We feel really solid about the demand for the offer, the value proposition of the offer, and we feel solid about pipelines in the PEO.

當然。早上好，順便謝謝你。我非常感謝你們的祝賀。PEO 預訂量在下半年確實有所放緩。從年比來看，漲幅也確實有所放緩。也就是說，PEO 預訂量仍然強勁成長。因此，從我的角度來看，PEO 的需求方程式仍然非常強勁。與去年同期相比略有放緩。我們對該報價的需求、該報價的價值主張感到非常堅定，我們對 PEO 中的管道也感到非常堅定。

And as you know, with pipelines in the PEO, it is more about activity in the market, new appointments, requests for proposals, things of that nature. So all the bellwether signals show that the PEO strength is still there, but it did moderate a bit in the back half.

如您所知，PEO 中的管道更涉及市場活動、新任命、提案請求等性質的事情。因此，所有領頭羊訊號都表明 PEO 實力仍然存在，但在後半段確實有所緩和。

Yeah. And just a follow-up just with thinking what would it take to get PEO back to high single-digit or double-digit revenue growth that was targeted previously?

是的。接下來的問題是，如何讓 PEO 恢復到先前設定的個位數或兩位數的高收入成長目標？

Yes. Hi Bryan, I think it's going to take a little bit of time. And we were working, and as I mentioned earlier, we are seeing some more margin pressure in PEO, and some of that is because of the investments we are making in the sales force to make sure we can get those bookings going. But realistically, to get to kind of Investor Day guidance that we provided three years ago, it is going to take some time to build that back.

是的。嗨，布萊恩，我認為這需要一點時間。我們正在努力，正如我之前提到的，我們看到 PEO 的利潤壓力增加，部分原因是我們對銷售團隊進行了投資，以確保我們能夠完成這些預訂。但實際上，要達到我們三年前提供的投資者日指導水平，還需要一些時間來重建。

So we are definitely focused on that, and we are definitely focused on getting there. Of course, if we were to see some reacceleration in the pays per control, that would put lots of wind in the sails, but it's going to take a little bit of time to get back to where we want to be.

所以我們絕對會專注於此，而且我們絕對會專注於實現此目標。當然，如果我們看到每次控制的付費有所加快，那將會給我們帶來很大的推動力，但要回到我們想要的狀態還需要一點時間。

No, that makes sense. And congrats again.

不，這很有道理。再次恭喜。

Scott Wurtzel, Wolfe Research.

沃澤爾（Scott Wurtzel），沃爾夫研究公司。

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to go back to the margin guidance and just the context of seems like slower expansion in the first half or second half. Wondering if you walk us through the drivers there are some more on the shape of revenue or does it have anything to do on the cost side? Thank you.

大家早安。感謝您回答我的問題。我想回到利潤率指導，以及上半年或下半年擴張似乎放緩的背景。想知道您是否能向我們介紹一下驅動因素，其中還有一些與收入形態有關，或與成本方面有什麼關係？謝謝。

Good question, Scott. More on the shape of expenses. Revenue expectations throughout the year are pretty consistent quarter-to-quarter. It is really some spending patterns we have in the first half of the year, but really nothing specific to call out. Just want to give folks a heads up that we think we are going to be stronger in the back half than the first.

問得好，史考特。更多關於費用形態的資訊。全年營收預期與各季度相比相當一致。這確實是我們上半年的一些支出模式，但沒有什麼特別值得指出的。只是想讓大家知道，我們認為後半段我們會比前半段更強大。

Got it. That makes sense. And just as a follow-up on the international side. I mean it seems like you're making some good traction on incremental countries and geographies. And we'd love to just hear about your sort of expectations for international heading into this year, how much of it is a priority for you relative to maybe other investments in the business and where you're maybe seeing opportunities internationally.

知道了。這很有道理。這只是國際的後續行動。我的意思是，看起來你正在逐步向一些國家和地區取得良好的進展。我們很想聽聽您對今年國際業務的期望，相對於其他業務投資，國際業務對您來說有多重要，以及您在國際上看到了哪些機會。

Yeah, fair, Scott. It is a very large priority for us. As you may remember, our third strategic priority is to benefit our clients with our global scale. International fits squarely into that strategic priority. We've been building this business for 50-some odd years. We are well ahead of the competition, as it relates to the number of countries that we serve on behalf of our clients, and moreover the infrastructure in those countries that we've built out.

是的，公平，斯科特。這對我們來說是一個非常重要的優先事項。您可能還記得，我們​​的第三個策略重點是利用我們的全球規模來使客戶受益。國際化完全符合此戰略重點。我們建立這個業務已有五十多年了。我們在競爭中處於領先地位，因為我們為客戶提供服務的國家數量眾多，而且我們在這些國家建設了完善的基礎設施。

So we often speak to the final mile and all the things that we do to ensure that our clients have the ability to pay across very complex, sometimes large complex clients or countries, and sometimes very small complex countries. But certainly, it is a big piece of our offer.

因此，我們經常談論最後一哩路以及我們所做的所有事情，以確保我們的客戶有能力支付非常複雜的費用，有時是大型複雜的客戶或國家，有時是非常小的複雜國家。但毫無疑問，這是我們提供的一大塊內容。

I think companies continue to want to think about their system of record from a global perspective, as they continue to have distributed workforces across the globe, as they continue to move supply chains in this world of globalization, as they have remote employees in smaller countries and around the world.

我認為公司會繼續從全球視角來考慮他們的記錄系統，因為他們會繼續在全球範圍內擁有分散式勞動力，因為他們會繼續在這個全球化的世界中轉移供應鏈，因為他們在較小的國家和世界各地都有遠端員工。

We have this incredible network and ability to support clients today in what is 141 countries, and we continue to add more, as they become prudent in terms of the -- again, if it is the growth economies or where our clients are heading, but it is a big piece of our growth story. It's a big piece of our differentiation in the marketplace. And our multi-country MNC business is a clear competitive advantage for us in the international space.

我們擁有令人難以置信的網絡和能力，可以為 141 個國家的客戶提供支持，而且，隨著客戶對增長型經濟體或客戶發展方向變得更加謹慎，我們將繼續擴大客戶範圍，但這仍然是我們成長故事的重要組成部分。這是我們在市場上脫穎而出的一大因素。我們的跨國公司業務在國際領域為我們帶來了明顯的競爭優勢。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Jason Kupferberg, Bank of America.

美國銀行的傑森‧庫普弗伯格（Jason Kupferberg）。

Hi. This is Caroline on for Jason. Thanks for taking our question. Can you talk about the duration of the portfolio? We were a little surprised to see that the F'25 average yield is expected to be up year-over-year based on the number of rate cuts being forecast. And maybe how you might be adjusting your investment strategy for the portfolio based on the interest rate outlook for the next 12 months.

你好。卡洛琳 (Caroline) 代替傑森 (Jason)。感謝您回答我們的問題。能談談投資組合的持續時間嗎？我們有點驚訝地發現，根據預測的降息次數，F'25 平均收益率預計將同比增長。也許您可能會根據未來 12 個月的利率前景調整投資組合的投資策略。

Caroline, thanks for the question. So we do have a laddered strategy. So if you actually refer to the -- I think, the last page of the earnings release, I think you can see the maturity schedule for our investments. And you can see that, for example in 2025, we have $6 billion that's maturing at roughly 2.2%, and our reinvestment at this point in time is 4.2%.

卡羅琳，謝謝你的提問。所以我們確實有一個階梯式戰略。因此，如果你真的參考——我想，收益報告的最後一頁，你會看到我們投資的到期時間表。您可以看到，例如在 2025 年，我們有 60 億美元到期利率約為 2.2%，而此時我們的再投資利率為 4.2%。

So there's still lots of opportunity, and this is a place where ADP's laddering strategy shows its strength. It is fair to say that over the last couple of years, because of the inverted yield curve, we did have some opportunity cost by having this strategy. But I think we are very much seeing that as yield curves start to normalize, that we still have lots of opportunity for client funds interest growth.

因此，仍有許多機會，這也是 ADP 階梯式策略展現其實力的地方。公平地說，過去幾年，由於殖利率曲線倒掛，我們實施這項策略確實有一些機會成本。但我認為，隨著殖利率曲線開始正常化，我們仍有許多機會實現客戶資金利息成長。

I'd just add to that that the portfolio is continuing to grow. It's growing 3% to 4% again next year, maybe not as much as it has in the past couple of years because wages have moderated a little bit, pays per control moderated a little bit. But we are still seeing good growth in that area. So we still have lots of opportunity.

我只想補充一點，投資組合還在持續成長。明年，經濟成長率將再次達到 3% 至 4%，但可能不會像過去幾年那麼高，因為薪資和每項控制支出都略有下降。但我們仍然看到該地區的良好成長。所以我們仍有很多機會。

And the most important thing here, the most important comment I can make on this whole fund strategy, is that we base all of these commitments or all of these expectations on the current yield curve. We're not trying to outguess the market. We're looking at what the market in general has to say. And we are using those yield curves to put together our forecasts and our guidance on interest rates.

這裡最重要的一點，我對整個基金策略能做出的最重要的評論是，我們所有這些承諾或所有這些預期都是基於當前的殖利率曲線。我們並不是想預測市場趨勢。我們正在關注整個市場的反應。我們正在利用這些殖利率曲線來匯總我們對利率的預測和指導。

Okay, that's helpful. Thank you so much.

好的，這很有幫助。太感謝了。

Ashish Sabadra, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ashish Sabadra。

Hi. This is David Paige on for Ashish. Thanks for taking our question. I just wanted to circle back to the workforce optimization charge that we had in the quarter of $42 million. Should we expect further workforce optimization in 2025? And if yes, how much of that there, what's the benefit to the EPS guidance for '25 as well? Thank you.

你好。這是 David Paige 為 Ashish 主持的節目。感謝您回答我們的問題。我只是想回顧一下我們本季 4,200 萬美元的勞動力優化費用。我們是否應該期待 2025 年勞動力進一步優化？如果是的話，那有多少，對 25 年的 EPS 指導有什麼好處？謝謝。

David, as Maria has shared earlier, I mean, we're always looking to make sure that we've got the workforce at the size it needs to be and in the places it needs to be. So we made those difficult decisions that we had to make on behalf of some of those employees. But we always look at this. And if you look at ADP over the years, we've always done what needed to be done to go forward.

大衛，正如瑪麗亞之前分享的那樣，我的意思是，我們一直在努力確保我們擁有足夠規模的勞動力，並將其部署在需要的地方。因此，我們代表部分員工做出了那些艱難的決定。但我們始終關注這一點。如果你回顧 ADP 多年來的發展，你會發現我們一直在做需要做的事情，以便前進。

So I would just leave it at that and say that we're very happy with the guidance we put out here and the margin guidance as well. So we will make sure that we do what we need to do to execute, and we'll see what the future brings. But as we sit here today, we've done what we need to do, and we are looking forward to the future.

因此，我只想說，我們對這裡發布的指導以及利潤率指導感到非常滿意。因此，我們將確保我們做了我們需要做的事情，並看看未來會發生什麼。但今天我們坐在這裡，我們已經做了我們需要做的事情，我們期待著未來。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Kartik Mehta, Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta，Northcoast Research。

Good morning. I know you've talked about the strength in bookings quite a bit. And I'm just wondering from an enterprise sales standpoint if there is been any change. Is the sales cycle lengthening at all? Are enterprises maybe asking to buy less modules they have in the past? Any change or has it been pretty much status quo and really no change from a demand or a sales cycle standpoint?

早安.我知道您已經多次談論過預訂量的優勢。我只是想知道從企業銷售的角度來看是否有任何變化。銷售週期是否會延長？企業是否可能要求購買更少的過去擁有的模組？從需求或銷售週期的角度來看，有什麼改變嗎？還是基本上維持現狀，真的沒有改變？

Fair. It is a great question. I think we talked about it a bit last quarter and perhaps throughout the year, which is that we're really at a new normal, as it relates to the overall sales cycles. It is reminiscent of what it used to look like pre-pandemic. But arguably, there are more decision-makers involved. The process has elongated a bit from where it was during the height of the pandemic. But the deals are moving through the motions. I would say that they are moving through the motions pretty typically.

公平的。這是一個很好的問題。我想我們上個季度甚至全年都討論過這個問題，因為我們確實處於一個新常態，因為它與整體銷售週期有關。它讓人回想起疫情爆發前的樣子。但可以說，有更多的決策者參與其中。與疫情高峰期相比，此一進程已延長。但這些交易只是在進行中。我想說，他們只是在做著很典型的動作。

But certainly, it's not as fast as it was at one point in time. But we're not seeing less modules. We are seeing a big conversation around global, a big conversation around global system of record, things of that nature, which again is where this next-gen HCM fits squarely into that demand. So the conversation shifted a bit, but that is not necessarily new news, Kartik. It's really what we've seen over the last couple of years, as a byproduct of how clients in that enterprise global space operate.

但可以肯定的是，它的速度不如以前快了。但我們並沒有看到更少的模組。我們看到圍繞全球的熱烈討論，圍繞全球記錄系統等性質的事情的熱烈討論，而下一代 HCM 又恰好滿足了這一需求。因此談話內容發生了一些轉變，但這不一定是新消息，卡蒂克。這確實是我們在過去幾年看到的，也是企業全球領域客戶運作方式的副產品。

So certainly, that's how we are leading what that best offer across the enterprise and international space. But from a deal cycle standpoint, it is pretty similar to what we've seen throughout this year, which is more decision-makers involved and prudency, as it relates to the decisions that are being made, but not necessarily less modules or anything of that nature.

毫無疑問，這就是我們如何在企業和國際領域中引領最佳解決方案。但從交易週期的角度來看，它與我們今年全年看到的情況非常相似，即更多的決策者參與和謹慎，因為它與正在做出的決策有關，但不一定是更少的模組或任何類似的東西。

And then just on the small business side, I mean as you look at the health of the small business, anything that is changing or anything that would give you concern just as people get worried about the economy, or change in behavior?

然後就小型企業方面而言，我的意思是，當您觀察小型企業的健康狀況時，有什麼變化或什麼事情會讓您擔心，就像人們擔心經濟或行為變化一樣？

Yeah. Great question. So we monitor so many of these things, right? So I spoke to one of them earlier, which is the pace of new business formation. That tends to be a bit bellwether. Again, it is still elevated from norms, but it is down year-on-year. We are also monitoring our own out of business. We are looking at clients that call it suspend payroll and how many are sitting in that type of capacity. These are all things and metrics that we've monitored for years to ensure that we are seeing what is happening real time, if you will.

是的。好問題。所以我們對這些事情進行瞭如此多的監控，對嗎？我之前就和他們中的一個討論過，那就是新業務形成的速度。這往往具有一定的先兆作用。再次，它仍然高於正常水平，但同比有所下降。我們也在監控自己的業務。我們正在關注那些稱之為暫停薪資單的客戶，以及有多少客戶處於這種狀態。這些都是我們多年來一直監控的事物和指標，以確保我們能夠即時看到正在發生的事情。

What I would say is there are little pockets, very similar to the new business formation of watch items that we have our eye on. None of it at this juncture gives us great pause. Quite the opposite. But at the same time, we are monitoring these things to make sure that we don't get surprised as it relates to the shift should there be one. But there hasn't been one yet.

我想說的是，有一些小規模的業務，非常類似於我們關注的手錶產品新業務形式。此時此刻，一切都不足以讓我們停下來思考。恰恰相反。但同時，我們正在監控這些情況，以確保我們不會對可能發生的轉變感到驚訝。但目前還沒有。

Perfect. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

完美的。太感謝了。我真的很感激。

Thank you. There are no further questions. I'd like to turn the call back over to Maria Black for any closing remarks.

謝謝。沒有其他問題了。我想將電話轉回給瑪麗亞·布萊克，請她做最後發言。

Great. Thank you. So I will end where I started, which is I'd like to take this opportunity to thank our 64,000 associates. All of the results that Don and I have the pleasure of getting on this call to represent, they are a byproduct of 64,000 associates that are all incredibly committed to having the best-in-class technology, the best service, and the biggest, broadest global scale.

偉大的。謝謝。因此，我將以開始的方式結束演講，我想藉此機會感謝我們的 64,000 名同事。我和唐很高興在這次電話會議上介紹所有這些成果，它們都是 64,000 名員工共同努力的結果，他們都致力於擁有一流的技術、最好的服務以及最大、最廣泛的全球規模。

And everything we do, whether it is from product innovation to our contracting process, to our sellers, to our service associates, it really takes the entire company being aligned on what I would suggest is a commitment to client and client centricity. In that spirit, I'd also like just to take a minute to thank our 1.1 million clients.

我們所做的一切，無論是從產品創新到我們的承包流程，到我們的賣家，到我們的服務夥伴，都需要整個公司保持一致，我認為，這就是對客戶和以客戶為中心的承諾。本著這種精神，我還想花一點時間感謝我們的 110 萬客戶。

I will tell you, as we celebrated the 75th anniversary of ADP, it was quite a remarkable moment to think about all the clients that we've impacted over 75 years and had the honor of contributing to their journeys of success and navigation. So definitely want to take a minute to honor all of our clients.

我要告訴你們，當我們慶祝 ADP 成立 75 週年時，想到 75 年來我們影響過的所有客戶，並有幸為他們的成功和導航之旅做出貢獻，這是一個非常了不起的時刻。因此，我們當然想花一點時間來向我們所有的客戶表示敬意。

And then last but not least, all of you who dialed-in today, I appreciate you joining us. I appreciate your interest and your investment in ADP. And I look forward to speaking with you soon.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，今天撥入電話的所有人，我感謝你們加入我們。我感謝您對 ADP 的關注和投資。我期待著很快與您交談。

Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。祝大家有個愉快的一天。