自動資料處理 (ADP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. After prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time.

早上好。我叫米歇爾，我將擔任您的會議操作員。此時此刻，我謹歡迎大家參加 ADP 2023 財年第四季度財報電話會議。我想通知您，本次會議正在錄製中。準備好發言後，我們將進行問答環節。屆時將給出指示。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Danyal Hussain, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 Danyal Hussain 先生主持。請繼續。

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. Participating today are Maria Black, our President and CEO; and Don McGuire, our CFO.

謝謝米歇爾，歡迎大家參加 ADP 2023 年第四季度財報電話會議。今天參加會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官瑪麗亞·布萊克 (Maria Black)；還有我們的首席財務官唐·麥奎爾。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter and full year. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早上早些時候，我們發布了本季度和全年的業績。我們的盈利材料可在 SEC 網站和投資者關係網站 Investors.adp.com 上獲取，您還可以在其中找到今天電話會議附帶的投資者演示文稿。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description of these items along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在我們的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對投資者有用，並且排除了某些項目的影響。這些項目的描述以及非公認會計準則指標與最具可比性的公認會計準則指標的調節可以在我們的收益報告中找到。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

今天的電話會議還將包含涉及未來事件並涉及一些風險的前瞻性聲明。我們鼓勵您查看我們向 SEC 提交的文件，以獲取有關可能導致實際結果與我們當前預期存在重大差異的因素的更多信息。

I'll now turn it over to Maria.

我現在把它交給瑪麗亞。

Thank you, Danny, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We closed out the year with a strong fourth quarter that included 9% organic constant currency revenue growth, 270 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and 26% adjusted EPS growth. And for our full year fiscal 2023, we delivered 10% organic constant currency revenue growth, 130 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and 17% adjusted EPS growth representing another strong year for ADP.

謝謝丹尼，也謝謝大家加入我們。我們以強勁的第四季度結束了這一年，其中固定匯率收入有機增長 9%，調整後息稅前利潤率擴張 270 個基點，調整後每股收益增長 26%。在 2023 財年全年，我們實現了 10% 的固定貨幣收入有機增長、130 個基點的調整後息稅前利潤擴張和 17% 的調整後每股收益增長，這代表著 ADP 又一個強勁的一年。

I'll start with some highlights from the quarter. Our worldwide sales and marketing team delivered exceptional Q4 Employer Services, new business Bookings growth that was well in excess of our expectations with strong double-digit overall growth on top of a difficult comparison. The HCM demand environment has been healthy despite a gradually slowing macroeconomic backdrop, and we have been capitalizing on this study demand.

我將從本季度的一些亮點開始。我們的全球銷售和營銷團隊在第四季度提供了出色的雇主服務，新業務預訂增長遠遠超出了我們的預期，在艱難的比較中實現了強勁的兩位數整體增長。儘管宏觀經濟背景逐漸放緩，HCM 需求環境仍然健康，我們一直在利用這項研究需求。

Our strong bookings results were broad-based. We had continued strength in our down market and Employer Services HRO offerings, we also had better-than-expected results in our mid-market as well as a great finish from our compliance and international businesses. This Q4 performance brought our full year Employer Services bookings growth to 10% compared to our 6% to 9% guidance and our medium-term goal of 7% to 8% growth that we laid out at our 2021 Investor Day. We are, of course, thrilled with this result and excited to keep the momentum going.

我們強勁的預訂結果具有廣泛的基礎。我們在低端市場和雇主服務 HRO 產品方面持續保持優勢，在中端市場也取得了好於預期的業績，並且在合規和國際業務方面取得了良好的成績。第四季度的業績使我們全年的雇主服務預訂增長至 10%，而我們的指導值為 6% 至 9%，以及我們在 2021 年投資者日制定的 7% 至 8% 的中期目標。當然，我們對這一結果感到非常興奮，並很高興能夠保持這種勢頭。

Our Employer Services retention rate was another highlight in Q4 and came in better than we expected. For the full year, we delivered a retention rate increase of 10 basis points and are back to our record level retention rate of 92.2%, all while absorbing the impact of normalization in the down market out of business rates. This strong result was driven by record-level retention rates, specifically in our U.S. mid-market and international businesses and by record level overall client satisfaction across our major businesses in the fourth quarter.

我們的雇主服務保留率是第四季度的另一個亮點，並且比我們預期的要好。全年，我們的保留率提高了 10 個基點，並回到了 92.2% 的歷史記錄水平，同時吸收了市場下行業務利率正常化的影響。這一強勁業績的推動因素是創紀錄的保留率，特別是我們的美國中端市場和國際業務，以及第四季度我們主要業務創紀錄的整體客戶滿意度。

Our Employer Services pays per control growth was 3% for the quarter as the overall labor market continued to show resilience, bringing the full year pays per control figure to 5%. We have been pleased all year to see such durable labor demand from our clients. And last, while our PEO revenue growth performed in line with our expectations this quarter, we were pleased to experience a further acceleration in PEO bookings with strong double-digit growth in Q4, representing another record level sales quarter.

由於整體勞動力市場繼續表現出彈性，本季度雇主服務人均工資增長了 3%，使全年人均工資增長至 5%。一年來，我們很高興看到客戶如此持久的勞動力需求。最後，雖然本季度我們的 PEO 收入增長符合我們的預期，但我們很高興看到 PEO 預訂量進一步加速，第四季度實現兩位數的強勁增長，代表銷售季度又創歷史新高。

Moving on, while Don will cover our fiscal 2024 financial outlook, I wanted to spend a few minutes sharing our strategic priorities as we look ahead. Change and increase in complexity are secular growth drivers for the HCM industry. And our breadth enables us to address nearly any HCM challenge our clients may face and meet them wherever they may be on their HR journey. From start-up to enterprise, from software-only to fully outsourced, and from local to global, we see a tremendous growth opportunity in front of us. And while our specific growth initiatives will vary by business, there are 3 key strategic priorities, which apply across all of ADP that I see as critical to enabling our growth in the years ahead.

接下來，Don 將介紹我們 2024 財年的財務展望，而我想花幾分鐘時間分享我們展望未來的戰略重點。變化和復雜性的增加是 HCM 行業的長期增長動力。我們的廣度使我們能夠解決客戶可能面臨的幾乎所有 HCM 挑戰，並在他們處於人力資源旅程的任何地方滿足他們。從初創企業到企業，從純軟件到完全外包，從本地到全球，我們看到了巨大的增長機會。雖然我們的具體增長計劃會因業務而異，但有 3 個關鍵戰略優先事項適用於整個 ADP，我認為這對於實現我們未來幾年的增長至關重要。

The first strategic priority is to lead with best-in-class HCM technology, put simply, our goal is to design, develop and deliver the very best and most innovative solutions that will help our clients navigate the full life cycle of employment. From hiring employees to onboarding and training them, providing insurance for them, paying them and filing payroll taxes and even setting them up for retirement.

第一個戰略重點是採用一流的 HCM 技術，簡而言之，我們的目標是設計、開發和提供最好、最具創新性的解決方案，幫助我們的客戶駕馭整個就業生命週期。從僱用員工到入職和培訓他們，為他們提供保險，向他們支付工資和繳納工資稅，甚至為他們安排退休。

As much as we offer today, we see an incredible opportunity to improve on our current and next-gen solutions, tactically used partnerships and inorganic means to further accelerate our pace of innovation and continues to offer industry-leading HCM products, and we expect to have a busy fiscal 2024. For U.S. small businesses, we are rolling out several product enhancements that will serve our 850,000 RUN clients, including a new tax ID registration, service-learning management to help with small business employee training and an insurance inspector tool that utilizes AI to help clients manage their workers' compensation, insurance policies and annual audits.

正如我們今天所提供的那樣，我們看到了一個難以置信的機會來改進我們當前和下一代的解決方案、戰術上使用的合作夥伴關係和無機手段，以進一步加快我們的創新步伐，並繼續提供行業領先的 HCM 產品，我們期望2024 財年非常繁忙。對於美國小型企業，我們正在推出多項產品增強功能，為我們的 850,000 名 RUN 客戶提供服務，包括新的稅號註冊、幫助小型企業員工培訓的服務學習管理，以及可幫助小型企業員工培訓的保險檢查員工具。利用人工智能幫助客戶管理工人薪酬、保險單和年度審計。

For U.S. midsized businesses served by Workforce Now, our focus is to continue our great momentum in the deployment of our Next Gen Payroll and time engine and to drive our win rates and client satisfaction even higher. In the U.S. enterprise space, we expect to nearly finish the migrations of 3 of our remaining legacy platforms by the end of this fiscal year representing an important step in our multiyear journey to move our clients to more modern platforms.

對於 Workforce Now 服務的美國中型企業，我們的重點是繼續部署下一代薪資和時間引擎的強勁勢頭，並進一步提高我們的贏率和客戶滿意度。在美國企業領域，我們預計到本財年末將幾乎完成 3 個剩餘遺留平台的遷移，這是我們將客戶遷移到更現代化平台的多年曆程中的重要一步。

We are also pleased to have advanced the velocity of our Next Gen HCM implementations, and we expect our Next Gen HCM sales to contribute in a more meaningful way to our bookings growth in fiscal 2024. Outside the U.S., we intend to scale our iHCM mid-market platform in fiscal 2024, adding at least 1,000 clients over the course of the year. I am also incredibly excited to share that we will begin offering role outside the U.S. in fiscal 2024 to drive incremental growth.

我們還很高興加快了下一代 HCM 的實施速度，我們預計下一代 HCM 的銷售將以更有意義的方式為我們 2024 財年的預訂增長做出貢獻。在美國以外，我們打算在美國以外的地區擴大 iHCM 的中期規模- 2024 財年的市場平台，年內增加至少 1,000 個客戶。我還非常高興地告訴大家，我們將於 2024 財年開始在美國境外提供職位，以推動增量增長。

We plan to launch initially in 2 countries in Europe and expand its reach from there, and we intend to continue growing our Asia Pacific business, in part by leveraging our recent acquisition of a strong mid-market time product to supplement our existing payroll functionality. And across a few of our platforms, including Workforce Now and Roll, we intend to deploy Gen AI-powered features to help our clients more quickly and easily tackle certain HR transactions.

我們計劃首先在歐洲的兩個國家推出，並從那裡擴大其覆蓋範圍，我們打算繼續發展我們的亞太業務，部分方式是利用我們最近收購的強大的中端市場時間產品來補充我們現有的薪資功能。在我們的一些平台上，包括 Workforce Now 和 Roll，我們打算部署 Gen AI 支持的功能，以幫助我們的客戶更快、更輕鬆地處理某些人力資源事務。

Our second strategic priority is to provide unmatched expertise and outsourcing to our clients. We pride ourselves on serving as a true partner to each and every one of our 1 million clients. Our culture of client service applies equally across our entire business, from a basic payroll client to a fully outsourced client where we run part or all of the HR department. Our expertise and partnership approach has been key to ADP's winning formula for decades, and we will continue to lean into it. We expect that to manifest in a few ways in fiscal 2024.

我們的第二個戰略重點是為客戶提供無與倫比的專業知識和外包。我們為能夠成為我們 100 萬客戶中每一位真正的合作夥伴而感到自豪。我們的客戶服務文化同樣適用於我們的整個業務，從基本薪資客戶到我們運營部分或全部人力資源部門的完全外包客戶。幾十年來，我們的專業知識和合作方式一直是 ADP 致勝秘訣的關鍵，我們將繼續依靠它。我們預計這一點將在 2024 財年以多種方式體現。

We have recently been piloting a number of tools powered by Gen AI that can help our service and implementation associates deliver an even better client experience, and we will begin deploying these more broadly in early fiscal 2024. Given the significant number of clients we onboard and interact with every year, we expect to learn quite a bit this year about the longer-term benefits we and our clients might realize from Gen AI.

我們最近正在試用由 Gen AI 提供支持的許多工具，這些工具可以幫助我們的服務和實施人員提供更好的客戶體驗，我們將在 2024 財年初開始更廣泛地部署這些工具。鑑於我們擁有大量客戶，通過每年的互動，我們希望今年能更多地了解我們和我們的客戶可能從 Gen AI 中實現的長期利益。

Meanwhile, demand for our HR outsourcing solutions remains very strong. And in fiscal 2024, we are focused on reaching new clients and further improving the experience for existing ones. Our Employer Services HRO businesses have been performing incredibly well, and our focus for fiscal 2024 is to continue delivering strong bookings and keep client satisfaction and retention at current levels, or perhaps even reach new record levels. And our focus for our PEO business in fiscal 2024 is to maintain our recent strong bookings momentum by continuing to add to our sales force headcount, grow our referral partner network, and use data and machine learning to identify existing ADP clients who may be a strong fit for an upgrade.

與此同時，對我們人力資源外包解決方案的需求仍然非常強勁。在 2024 財年，我們的重點是吸引新客戶並進一步改善現有客戶的體驗。我們的雇主服務 HRO 業務一直表現出色，我們 2024 財年的重點是繼續提供強勁的預訂，並將客戶滿意度和保留率保持在當前水平，甚至可能達到新的紀錄水平。我們 2024 財年 PEO 業務的重點是通過繼續增加我們的銷售隊伍人數、擴大我們的推薦合作夥伴網絡以及使用數據和機器學習來識別可能是強大的現有 ADP 客戶，以保持我們最近強勁的預訂勢頭。適合升級。

Our third and final strategic priority is to leverage our global scale for the benefit of our clients. Our size and scale are unmatched in the industry. Across the globe, we not only offer robust platforms and a commitment to industry-leading service and expertise, but we also provide a scaled ecosystem and a unique on-the-ground presence in over 30 countries. This combination positions us to interact routinely with local governments and tax authorities, meet stringent certification and data requirements, and stay on top of complex and shifting legal requirements.

我們的第三個也是最後一個戰略重點是利用我們的全球規模為客戶謀取利益。我們的規模和規模在行業中是無與倫比的。在全球範圍內，我們不僅提供強大的平台和對行業領先服務和專業知識的承諾，而且還在 30 多個國家/地區提供規模化的生態系統和獨特的實地業務。這種結合使我們能夠與地方政府和稅務機關進行日常互動，滿足嚴格的認證和數據要求，並掌握複雜且不斷變化的法律要求。

Globally, we bring together our incredible data in array of partners and integrated solutions in one of the biggest and best business-to-business sales forces in the world to help our clients and prospects navigate the changing world of work. In fiscal 2024, we will continue to build on that scale for the benefit of our clients. Our GlobalView platform supports hundreds of the world's largest multinational companies with scaled workforces in over 40 countries, and our Celergo platform helps us serve thousands more in up to 140 countries.

在全球範圍內，我們將一系列合作夥伴的令人難以置信的數據和集成解決方案匯集到世界上最大、最好的企業對企業銷售隊伍之一，以幫助我們的客戶和潛在客戶駕馭不斷變化的工作世界。 2024 財年，我們將繼續擴大這一規模，以造福客戶。我們的 GlobalView 平台為數百家全球最大的跨國公司提供支持，這些公司在 40 多個國家/地區擁有規模化的員工隊伍，而我們的 Celergo 平台幫助我們為多達 140 個國家/地區的數千家公司提供服務。

In fiscal 2024, we expect to expand on both as we add additional countries to GlobalView's broad reach and as we potentially make tuck-in acquisitions to enhance our native in-country footprint. After establishing an ADP in-country presence in 5 new markets in 2023, we expect to expand further in fiscal 2024. Our world-class global scale distribution, led by over 8,500 sellers is being supported by headcount and marketing investment in 2024, and as we've shared with you in the past few quarters, our sellers will continue to be paired with a best-in-class sales tech stack, which we plan to enhance with Gen AI functionality in the coming months. And our ability to provide data-driven insights will continue to grow in fiscal 2024.

到 2024 財年，我們預計將在這兩個方面進行擴展，因為我們將更多的國家/地區添加到 GlobalView 的廣泛覆蓋範圍中，並且我們可能會進行收購以增強我們在國內的足跡。 2023 年在 5 個新市場建立 ADP 國內業務後，我們預計將在 2024 財年進一步擴張。我們由超過 8,500 名賣家領導的世界一流的全球規模分銷將得到 2024 年員工人數和營銷投資的支持，並且我們在過去幾個季度與您分享過，我們的賣家將繼續與一流的銷售技術堆棧配對，我們計劃在未來幾個月內通過 Gen AI 功能對其進行增強。我們提供數據驅動洞察的能力將在 2024 財年繼續增強。

ADP serves more clients and pay more people around the world than ever. And as we continue growing the number of employees we serve globally, the power of our insights will likewise continue to increase and benefit our clients. I am incredibly excited about these 3 strategic priorities for ADP, and the differentiation and growth they will continue to drive.

ADP 為全球更多的客戶提供服務，並為更多的人支付比以往更多的費用。隨著我們在全球範圍內服務的員工數量不斷增加，我們的洞察力也將不斷增強並讓我們的客戶受益。我對 ADP 的這 3 個戰略重點以及它們將繼續推動的差異化和增長感到非常興奮。

But before turning it over to Don, I wanted to take a moment to recognize our associates for their effort and performance over the course of this year. Our associates and body are core values like insightful expertise, service excellence and being results driven. In fiscal 2023, ADP was recognized as the world's most admired company by Fortune Magazine for the 17th consecutive year, signifying the incredibly strong culture we have and the important role we play in the world.

但在將其交給唐之前，我想花一點時間來表彰我們的員工在今年的努力和表現。我們的員工和機構秉承富有洞察力的專業知識、卓越的服務和以結果為導向的核心價值觀。 2023 財年，ADP 連續 17 年被《財富》雜誌評為全球最受尊敬的公司，這表明我們擁有令人難以置信的強大文化以及我們在世界上發揮的重要作用。

Additionally, we were recently recognized for the first time as one of the best companies for innovators by Fast Company, a true testament to the direction we are headed in. We owe these accolades as well as our strong, consistent financial performance to the commitment and effort of our 63,000 associates that make up the ADP family.

此外，我們最近首次被《Fast Company》評為最適合創新者的公司之一，這真正證明了我們前進的方向。我們將這些榮譽以及我們強勁、穩定的財務業績歸功於我們的承諾和這是構成 ADP 大家庭的 63,000 名員工的努力成果。

With that, I'll turn it over to Don.

有了這個，我會把它交給唐。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by expanding on Maria's comments around our Q4 results and then cover our fiscal 2024 financial outlook. Q4 performance was very strong overall, driving fiscal '23 results at or above our expectations. As Maria mentioned, these results reflected broad-based strength in Employer Services and PEO new business bookings, better-than-anticipated Employer Services retention and continued healthy Employer Services pays per control growth yielding 10% organic constant currency revenue growth for the year, and bringing us to $18 billion in revenue.

謝謝你，瑪麗亞，大家早上好。我將首先詳細闡述 Maria 對我們第四季度業績的評論，然後介紹我們 2024 財年的財務前景。第四季度的整體表現非常強勁，推動 23 財年業績達到或高於我們的預期。正如瑪麗亞提到的，這些結果反映了雇主服務和 PEO 新業務預訂的廣泛實力、好於預期的雇主服務保留率以及持續健康的雇主服務按控制付費增長，導致今年有機固定貨幣收入增長 10%，以及為我們帶來 180 億美元的收入。

For our Employer Services segment, revenue in the quarter increased 11% on both the reported and organic constant currency basis. This stronger-than-expected revenue growth was a function of continued outperformance in retention and pays per control growth as well as a better than anticipated contribution from client funds interest. Our ES margin expanded 480 basis points in the fourth quarter, which was broadly in line with our expectations.

對於我們的雇主服務部門，本季度收入按報告收入和有機固定匯率計算均增長 11%。這種強於預期的收入增長是由於保留率和每次控制費用增長的持續表現出色以及客戶資金利息的貢獻好於預期的結果。我們的 ES 利潤率在第四季度擴大了 480 個基點，基本符合我們的預期。

For the full year, our ES revenue grew 10% on a reported basis and 11% on an organic constant currency basis, and our ES margin expanded 190 basis points. Growth in client funds interest helped us in a year in which we added a fair amount to our product, service and sales headcount, which has driven some fairly substantial benefits in sales, Net Promoter Score and retention results.

全年，我們的 ES 收入在報告基礎上增長了 10%，在有機固定貨幣基礎上增長了 11%，我們的 ES 利潤率擴大了 190 個基點。客戶資金興趣的增長幫助我們在這一年中增加了相當多的產品、服務和銷售人員數量，這在銷售、淨推薦值和保留結果方面帶來了一些相當大的好處。

For our PEO, revenue increased 4% for the quarter, decelerating slightly from Q3 as we anticipated. Average worksite employees increased 3% on a year-over-year basis to 722,000 and has started to gradually reaccelerate supported by very strong bookings growth in Q4. PEO margin contracted 110 basis points in the fourth quarter, in line with our expectations due in part to higher selling expenses. For the full year, our PEO revenue grew 8% and average worksite employees increased 6% and our margin expanded 60 basis points, all in line with our most recent guidance.

對於我們的 PEO，本季度收入增長了 4%，正如我們預期的那樣，較第三季度略有下降。平均工地員工人數同比增長 3%，達到 722,000 人，並在第四季度強勁的預訂增長的支持下開始逐漸重新加速。 PEO 利潤率在第四季度收縮了 110 個基點，符合我們的預期，部分原因是銷售費用增加。全年，我們的 PEO 收入增長了 8%，平均工作場所員工增長了 6%，我們的利潤率擴大了 60 個基點，所有這些都符合我們最新的指導。

I'll now turn to our outlook for fiscal '24. While the economic backdrop remains uncertain, we continue to believe we are well positioned to deliver solid overall financial results while also investing for future growth, consistent with the strategic priorities that Maria laid out. Our fiscal '24 outlook assumes some moderation in economic activity over the course of the year, but nothing dramatic.

現在我將談談我們對 24 財年的展望。儘管經濟背景仍然不確定，但我們仍然相信，我們有能力實現穩健的整體財務業績，同時為未來增長進行投資，這與瑪麗亞制定的戰略重點相一致。我們的 24 財年展望假設經濟活動在這一年中會有所放緩，但不會出現戲劇性的變化。

Beginning with ES segment revenue, we expect growth of 7% to 8%, driven by the following key assumptions. We expect ES new business bookings growth of 4% to 7%, representing a solid growth after a particularly strong fiscal '23. For now, we're assuming a stronger first half and some moderation in second half bookings growth, which we think is prudent given the limited visibility into the macro environment.

從 ES 部門收入開始，我們預計在以下關鍵假設的推動下增長 7% 至 8%。我們預計 ES 新業務預訂量將增長 4% 至 7%，這是在 23 年特別強勁的財年之後實現的穩健增長。目前，我們假設上半年預訂量增長強勁，下半年預訂量增長有所放緩，鑑於宏觀環境的可見性有限，我們認為這是謹慎的。

For ES retention, we finished fiscal '23 at a record level of 92.2%, consistently outperforming our expectations throughout the year. We are, of course, very pleased with this performance as we overcame headwinds from higher down market out of business levels with strength elsewhere. With that said, we are contemplating a 50 to 70 basis points ES retention decline for fiscal '24 due in part to an assumption that small business losses will increase slightly from where they are today as well as an assumption for general impact to our other businesses from a slowing economic backdrop.

對於 ES 保留率，我們在 23 財年完成了 92.2% 的創紀錄水平，全年表現始終超出我們的預期。當然，我們對這一業績感到非常滿意，因為我們憑藉其他方面的優勢克服了低端市場業務水平較高的阻力。話雖如此，我們正在考慮 24 財年的 ES 保留率下降 50 至 70 個基點，部分原因是小企業損失將比目前的情況略有增加，以及對我們其他業務產生普遍影響的假設在經濟放緩的背景下。

As we called out 3 months ago, we see the potential for below normal pays per control growth in fiscal '24, and our outlook assumes 1% to 2% growth for the year. We had a strong Q4, which gives us a solid starting point for growth and a gradual deceleration over the course of the year feels reasonable at this time. And as the price contributed 150 basis points to our ES revenue growth in fiscal '23, we are anticipating a smaller contribution in fiscal '24, though still above our recent historical average contribution of around 50 basis points.

正如我們 3 個月前所指出的那樣，我們認為 24 財年的平均工資增長可能低於正常水平，我們的前景假設今年增長 1% 至 2%。我們第四季度表現強勁，這為我們的增長提供了堅實的起點，並且在這一年中逐漸減速目前感覺是合理的。由於價格對 23 財年的 ES 收入增長貢獻了 150 個基點，我們預計 24 財年的貢獻會較小，但仍高於近期約 50 個基點的歷史平均貢獻。

And for client funds interest revenue, the interest rate backdrop has been dynamic these past few months, and it is important to keep in mind that our client funds interest revenue forecast reflects the current forward yield curve, which will, of course, evolve as we move through fiscal '24. At this point, we expect our average yield to increase from 2.4% in fiscal '23 to 2.8% in fiscal '24. We meanwhile expect our average client funds balances to grow 2% to 3% in fiscal '24. This is a bit lower than recent trends due primarily to more modest contribution from pays per control growth and an assumption for more moderate wage increases. Putting those together, we expect our client funds interest revenue to increase from $813 million in fiscal '23 to a range of $955 million to $975 million in fiscal '24.

對於客戶基金利息收入而言，過去幾個月的利率背景一直在動態變化，重要的是要記住，我們的客戶基金利息收入預測反映了當前的遠期收益率曲線，當然，該曲線將隨著我們的發展而變化。度過 24 財年。目前，我們預計平均收益率將從 23 財年的 2.4% 增至 24 財年的 2.8%。與此同時，我們預計 24 財年的平均客戶資金餘額將增長 2% 至 3%。這比最近的趨勢要低一些，主要是因為控制工資增長的貢獻較小，並且假設工資增長更為溫和。將這些綜合起來，我們預計我們的客戶基金利息收入將從 23 財年的 8.13 億美元增加到 24 財年的 9.55 億至 9.75 億美元。

Meanwhile, we expect the net impact from our client fund strategy to increase from $730 million in fiscal '23 to a range of $815 to $835 million in fiscal '24. For our ES margin, we expect an increase of 130 to 150 basis points driven by operating leverage and contribution from client funds interest revenue, offset by continued investments across our strategic priorities.

與此同時，我們預計客戶資金策略的淨影響將從 23 財年的 7.3 億美元增加到 24 財年的 815 至 8.35 億美元。對於我們的 ES 利潤率，我們預計在運營槓桿和客戶資金利息收入貢獻的推動下將增長 130 至 150 個基點，並被我們戰略重點的持續投資所抵消。

Moving on to the PEO segment. We expect PEO revenue and PO revenue excluding 0 margin pass-through to grow 3% to 5% in fiscal '24. The primary driver for our PEO revenue growth is our outlook for average worksite employee growth of 3% to 4%. This represents a gradual reacceleration from the 3% growth we're stepping off of in Q4. Strong bookings performance has already contributed to accelerating client growth, but that has so far been offset by slowing pays per control growth.

繼續討論 PEO 領域。我們預計 24 財年 PEO 收入和 PO 收入（不包括 0 利潤轉嫁）將增長 3% 至 5%。我們 PEO 收入增長的主要驅動力是我們對平均工作場所員工增長率 3% 至 4% 的預期。這表明我們從第四季度 3% 的增長開始逐漸重新加速。強勁的預訂業績已經促進了客戶增長的加速，但迄今為止，這已被單位控制費用增長放緩所抵消。

With continued strong bookings growth, our worksite employee growth should gradually reaccelerate as well. And as Maria shared, demand has been healthy, and we remain confident in the long-term growth opportunity in PEO. We expect PEO margin to be down between 20 and 40 basis points in fiscal '24 due to anticipated higher selling expenses as well as year-over-year headwind from a lower workers' compensation reserve release benefit than we experienced in fiscal '23.

隨著預訂量的持續強勁增長，我們的工作場所員工增長也應該逐漸重新加速。正如瑪麗亞分享的那樣，需求一直很健康，我們對 PEO 的長期增長機會仍然充滿信心。我們預計 24 財年的 PEO 利潤率將下降 20 至 40 個基點，原因是預期銷售費用增加，以及工人賠償準備金發放福利低於 23 財年所經歷的同比阻力。

Adding it all up, our consolidated revenue outlook is for 6% to 7% growth in fiscal '24. And our adjusted EBIT margin outlook is for expansion of 60 to 80 basis points. We expect our effective tax rate for fiscal '24 to be around 23%. And we expect adjusted EPS growth of 10% to 12%, supported by buybacks. One quick note on cadence. At this point, we expect total revenue growth to be relatively consistent quarter-to-quarter, but we expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be down slightly in Q1 on a year-over-year basis and then build over the course of the year.

總而言之，我們的綜合收入預期為 24 財年增長 6% 至 7%。我們調整後的息稅前利潤率預期將擴大 60 至 80 個基點。我們預計 24 財年的有效稅率約為 23%。在回購的支持下，我們預計調整後每股收益將增長 10% 至 12%。關於節奏的一個快速說明。目前，我們預計總收入的季度環比增長將相對穩定，但我們預計第一季度調整後的息稅前利潤率將同比小幅下降，然後在全年中繼續增長。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

謝謝，我現在將其轉回給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Ramsey El-Assal。

This is Owen on for Ramsey. I appreciate you taking our question today. I was just curious more on kind of your PEO revenue guidance. I know you called out worksite employee growth weighing on growth there. But you expect double-digit kind of bookings growth and projects only 3% to 5% growth in PEO revenues for fiscal '24. I was just curious if you can provide any more color on that spread, is it's any conservatism or if there are any other factors to consider there?

這是歐文替補拉姆齊。感謝您今天回答我們的問題。我只是對你們的 PEO 收入指導更好奇。我知道您指出工作場所員工的增長對那裡的增長造成了壓力。但您預計 24 財年的預訂量將實現兩位數的增長，而 PEO 收入僅增長 3% 至 5%。我只是好奇你是否可以在該傳播上提供更多顏色，是否保守，或者是否還有其他因素需要考慮？

Owen, thanks. Yes, I'll answer the question. We had a very, very strong sales bookings result in Q4. So we're very happy with that, and we've seen the sales reaccelerate. I think as we said in the prepared comments, we are seeing continued growth in clients. I think if there's a challenge that we're facing a little bit is we're seeing a little bit softer pays per control growth in the PEO than we would have expected. But back to what we've been saying for some time, we think the underlying value proposition is very, very strong, and we look to that business continue to grow for us and be a big part of our portfolio.

歐文，謝謝。是的，我會回答這個問題。第四季度我們的銷售預訂結果非常非常強勁。所以我們對此非常滿意，並且我們看到銷售重新加速。我認為正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，我們看到客戶的持續增長。我認為，如果說我們面臨的一個挑戰是，我們看到 PEO 的每次控制薪酬增長比我們預期的要軟一些。但回到我們一段時間以來所說的，我們認為潛在的價值主張非常非常強大，我們希望該業務繼續為我們增長，並成為我們投資組合的重要組成部分。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Samad Samana。

Congrats on the strong end to the fiscal year. Maybe first question, Maria, I thought it was very interesting about the announcement of moving the Roll into new international markets. How should we think about maybe what the opportunity there looks like? How much different is the complexity around payroll processing in international markets versus the U.S.? And have you included that in the bookings forecast for fiscal '24?

祝賀本財年圓滿結束。也許第一個問題，瑪麗亞，我認為宣布將捲帶入新的國際市場非常有趣。我們應該如何思考那裡的機會是什麼樣的？國際市場與美國薪資處理的複雜性有何不同？您是否已將其納入 24 財年的預訂預測中？

Yes. Fair enough. Thanks, Samad. And I appreciate the congratulations on the quarter and the year. We're obviously pretty proud over here. So with respect to Roll, it is exciting. It's been an exciting product for us to roll out, no pun intended across the down market here in the U.S. We're excited to take it into international. As mentioned, the initial goal is to put it into 2 countries, and it is an incremental add for us because it's really initially into these 2 countries. We're thinking more kind of the down-market SMB space, which is an area of opportunity for us across many of the markets that we serve. But we're also excited about role long term beyond that space. And so excited to dip it into our international space as we have continued the overall rollout of Roll.

是的。很公平。謝謝，薩馬德。我感謝大家對本季度和本年度的祝賀。我們顯然對此感到非常自豪。所以對於羅爾來說，這是令人興奮的。對我們來說，這是一款令人興奮的產品，在美國的低端市場並不是雙關語。我們很高興能將其推向國際市場。如前所述，最初的目標是將其投放到 2 個國家/地區，這對我們來說是一個增量添加，因為它實際上最初是投放到這 2 個國家/地區。我們正在考慮更多的低端市場中小企業領域，這對我們服務的許多市場來說是一個機會領域。但我們也對超越該領域的長期角色感到興奮。隨著我們繼續全面推出 Roll，我們非常高興能夠將其引入我們的國際空間。

In terms of factoring it into the overall bookings, not really. I think the -- by the time the launch happens and as we're thinking about the full year for our international business or full year for new business bookings, I'd be surprised if it ultimately makes a dent. But to us, it's really about the long-term value that, that offer will bring as we seek to expand the addressable market for us into these various places.

就將其納入總體預訂而言，事實並非如此。我認為，當發布開始時，當我們考慮全年的國際業務或全年的新業務預訂時，如果它最終產生影響，我會感到驚訝。但對我們來說，這實際上關係到當我們尋求將我們的目標市場擴展到這些不同地方時，該報價將帶來的長期價值。

Last but not least, Samad, you mentioned the complexity of being international. And I have to tell you, I spoke to it a little bit in the prepared remarks. There's a lot that goes into being in each one of these countries. To your point, there's complexity country by country. Many countries put many of the states that are complex, here in the U.S. to [shame] in terms of the complexity that provides. And that's everything from government entities, legal tax attorneys, who is the tax authority and how do you get to them. We often think of it as an ecosystem. We think about it as kind of that final mile, if you will, and that's the complexity, and that's what we've been building over the last couple of decades in our international business.

最後但並非最不重要的一點是，薩馬德，您提到了國際化的複雜性。我必須告訴你，我在準備好的發言中談到了這一點。這些國家中的每一個都發生了很多事情。就您而言，各個國家/地區都存在復雜性。許多國家都將許多複雜的州（例如美國）視為其複雜性的“恥辱”。這包括政府實體、合法稅務律師、稅務機關是誰以及如何联系他們。我們經常將其視為一個生態系統。如果你願意的話，我們將其視為最後一英里，這就是複雜性，這就是我們過去幾十年來在國際業務中一直在建設的東西。

So it's a lot more than dropping off software at a country border and hoping that it works. There's a lot to be said for the ecosystem around it, again, whether it's tax authorities, state lodgements, things of that nature. So excited to take advantage of the footprint we've built and put in our products into that footprint as we expand Roll internationally.

因此，這不僅僅是在國家邊境投放軟件並希望它能發揮作用。對於它周圍的生態系統，有很多話要說，無論是稅務機關、州政府提交的文件還是類似性質的事情。當我們在國際上擴展 Roll 時，很高興能夠利用我們已經建立的足跡並將我們的產品放入其中。

Very helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up for Don. I know you gave -- you called out that broad base strength that drove the bookings upside and you cited several specific factors. I guess it would be helpful if you could maybe help us dimensionalize where the upside was relative to the company's own expectations at maybe the start of fiscal '23? And what you're carrying forward from what you saw in the fourth quarter into the FY '24 bookings outlook?

很有幫助。然後也許只是唐的快速跟進。我知道您指出了推動預訂量上升的廣泛基礎力量，並列舉了幾個具體因素。我想，如果您能幫助我們確定與公司在 23 財年年初的預期相關的上行空間，將會有所幫助？從第四季度的情況來看，您對 24 財年的預訂前景有何展望？

Yes, Samad, thanks for the question. I'll start here, and I think I'll turn it over to Maria for the bookings. But we certainly saw a strength across the board. I think once again, in the prepared remarks, we called out the -- our tax business and our international business. So they were very strong amongst all the ones that were strong and the down market was also quite strong. So it was really a contribution from across the board in the fourth quarter.

是的，薩馬德，謝謝你的提問。我將從這裡開始，我想我會將其交給瑪麗亞進行預訂。但我們確實看到了全面的優勢。我想，在準備好的發言中，我們再次提到了我們的稅務業務和我們的國際業務。所以他們在所有強勢者中是非常強勢的，而且下跌的市場也相當強勁。所以這確實是第四季度全面的貢獻。

We talked for some time about how the pipelines are healthy and whatnot, and you've had questions before about times to get signatures on deals, et cetera. Things came together in the fourth quarter, and we were very, very pleased with the final result.

我們討論了一些關於管道如何健康等問題，並且您之前曾對獲得交易簽名的時間等有過疑問。事情在第四季度發生了，我們對最終結果非常非常滿意。

That's right. I -- my only add to that comment would be, we stepped into the quarter with healthy pipelines with a strong staffing position that was growing tenure. I have to tell you, when I reflect on all the quarters that I've watched across our sales execution, generally speaking, you have a bunch of businesses that are outperforming and you have a few businesses that are perhaps being carried by those that are outperforming. What I have to tell you is this was a broad-based strength across the entire organization sales implementation service, with kind of an all hands on deck execution, and that's really what it's all about. What I would attribute it to is incredible execution.

這是正確的。我對此評論的唯一補充是，我們進入本季度時擁有健康的管道和強大的人員配置職位，並且任期不斷增長。我必須告訴你，當我回顧我所觀察到的所有季度的銷售執行情況時，一般來說，有很多業務表現出色，而有一些業務可能是由那些表現不佳的業務所承擔的。表現出色。我必須告訴您的是，這是整個組織銷售實施服務的廣泛優勢，具有全員參與的執行力，這就是它的真正含義。我將其歸因於令人難以置信的執行力。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bryan Bergin 和 TD Cowen。

I wanted to follow up on U.S. bookings here. So you cited several areas of strength, mid-market, compliance and international. On the mid-market specifically, can you talk about what's driving that better-than-expected performance? Do you think that's driving improved competitive performance versus kind of rising tide environment? And then just I heard you comment on Next Gen HCM contributing more in the current fiscal year to bookings. Maybe talk about the initiatives and the product development that you think is going to drive that?

我想在這裡跟進美國的預訂情況。因此，您列舉了幾個優勢領域：中端市場、合規性和國際化。特別是在中端市場，您能談談是什麼推動了業績好於預期嗎？您認為與漲潮環境相比，這是否會推動競爭績效的提高？然後我聽到您評論下一代 HCM 在本財年對預訂做出了更多貢獻。也許可以談談您認為將推動這一目標的舉措和產品開發？

Bryan, so I'll comment on both. The mid-market strength that we've seen and it coming in a bit better than expected. It's been solid for quite some time. That's inclusive of our HRO offerings, and as you know, we've been speaking to those quite a bit in terms of the resonance of that value proposition in the market. So I think that adds to the overall strength that we have in the mid-market, which is the various flavors and offers that we have.

布萊恩，所以我將對兩者發表評論。我們看到的中端市場實力比預期要好一些。已經穩定了相當長一段時間了。這包括我們的 HRO 產品，正如您所知，我們已經就該價值主張在市場上的共鳴與這些產品進行了相當多的交談。因此，我認為這增強了我們在中端市場的整體實力，即我們擁有的各種口味和優惠。

I think the other is that we've made tremendous investments into that business. So we do have our Next Generation Payroll engine that the sales force is pretty excited about and we're seeing that the wins that are coming in and just kind of the momentum there. I think the other is the amount of product investment and innovation that we've done in the mid-market, specifically referencing the investments we've made into the Workforce Now platform with the new UX and many of the things that I've been speaking to.

我認為另一個是我們對該業務進行了大量投資。因此，我們確實擁有讓銷售人員非常興奮的下一代薪資引擎，我們看到即將取得的勝利以及那裡的勢頭。我認為另一個是我們在中端市場所做的產品投資和創新的數量，特別是指我們對帶有新用戶體驗的 Workforce Now 平台進行的投資以及我一直在做的許多事情說話。

And I think the other call out is it definitely helps on a new business bookings perspective, when the business on the other side, so service and NPS, if you will, as well as retention are firing on all cylinders. And that's exactly the case. We have record retention in our mid-market, and we have near-record NPS results across the mid-market. So really, really proud of the execution in that entire space. And that definitely fuels and feeds the ability for our sellers to get excited about everything that I just mentioned to go to market.

我認為另一個要點是，當另一方的業務、服務和 NPS（如果你願意的話）以及保留率都在全速運轉時，它絕對有助於新的業務預訂角度。情況確實如此。我們在中端市場的保留率創歷史新高，並且我們在中端市場的 NPS 結果接近創紀錄。非常非常為整個空間的執行感到自豪。這肯定會增強我們的賣家對我剛才提到的進入市場的一切感到興奮的能力。

Stepping into the question around Next Gen HCM, I did make a reference to that. We've talked a lot over the last quarters about this year. And what we've been working on is scaling implementation, and that's exactly what we've done in that business. So we were able to onboard a lot of the clients that we had on our backlog. We've shortened the time of implementation, and we also saw additions to that backlog.

在談到有關下一代 HCM 的問題時，我確實提到了這一點。過去幾個季度我們就今年討論了很多。我們一直致力於擴大實施規模，而這正是我們在該業務中所做的事情。因此，我們能夠吸引大量積壓的客戶。我們縮短了實施時間，而且積壓的工作也有所增加。

So we saw new sales in the fourth quarter of that Next Generation HCM platform. We're really excited about the momentum as we step into '24. And as such, we believe that Next Gen HCM will be a larger contributor to bookings for us in the upcoming year than it was in '23, but we were pleased with what we saw in the fourth quarter and the momentum heading in.

因此，我們在第四季度看到了下一代 HCM 平台的新銷量。當我們步入 24 世紀時，我們對這種勢頭感到非常興奮。因此，我們相信下一代 HCM 將在未來一年為我們的預訂做出比 23 年更大的貢獻，但我們對第四季度的情況和即將到來的勢頭感到滿意。

Okay. Understood. And then just on pricing, can you comment on where that ended up in fiscal '23 and what you're assuming in ES growth from a pricing standpoint in fiscal '24?

好的。明白了。然後就定價而言，您能否評論一下 23 財年的最終結果以及您從 24 財年定價角度對 ES 增長的假設？

Yes. So we were happy with our price increase and retention. So as we've talked to many times, we want to make sure that we're not getting greedy. So we did get about 150-basis points of price in the year. And we did that without the expense of seeing a decline in retention or NPS scores. And quite frankly, those NPS scores have stayed healthy despite the price increase. So as much as price increases can land well, they have landed well, and we're very happy with how that transpired throughout '23.

是的。因此，我們對價格上漲和保留感到滿意。正如我們多次交談過的那樣，我們希望確保我們不會變得貪婪。所以我們今年確實獲得了大約 150 個基點的價格。我們做到了這一點，但沒有看到留存率或 NPS 分數下降。坦率地說，儘管價格上漲，這些 NPS 分數仍然保持健康。因此，儘管價格上漲可以很好地實現，但它們已經實現了，我們對整個 23 年的情況感到非常滿意。

For '24, we do expect to have price increases again. We do not think that we're going to be in the 150 basis point range. We're certainly going to be above our historical average of about 50 basis points. But once again, we'll watch closely and make sure that the underlying value proposition for our clients stays in place, and we'll take some price for sure, but not to the extent that we did in FY '23.

對於 24 年，我們確實預計價格會再次上漲。我們認為不會處於 150 個基點的範圍內。我們肯定會高於約 50 個基點的歷史平均水平。但我們將再次密切關注並確保我們客戶的基本價值主張保持不變，我們肯定會採取一些價格，但不會達到我們在 23 財年所做的程度。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天欽。

With the great bookings here, I'm just thinking around the conversion. You mentioned implementation cycles. I'm just curious if you've seen any change from clients and their desire to implement. And then similarly, just maybe based on your comments there on Next Gen HCM, I'd love to hear a little bit more around the appetite from your prospects to upgrade now at this point in the cycle. What's the pitch here given some of the macro uncertainty?

有了這裡的大量預訂，我正在考慮轉換。您提到了實施週期。我只是好奇您是否看到了客戶的任何變化以及他們實施的願望。同樣，也許根據您對下一代 HCM 的評論，我很想听到更多有關您的潛在客戶在周期的此時此刻進行升級的興趣的信息。考慮到一些宏觀不確定性，這裡的重點是什麼？

So I think both of your questions, I just want to confirm, I'm hearing them the right way. I think they both kind of speak to the general sentiment around the demand environment. Is that kind of a good way to think about it?

所以我想我只是想確認一下你的兩個問題，我聽到的方式是正確的。我認為它們都反映了圍繞需求環境的普遍情緒。這是一個很好的思考方式嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of decisions getting delayed and/or what's the appetite to, I suppose, by HCM in the current macro environment. And so I'll comment on the general demand environment and feel free to follow-up with an additional question if I didn't cover what you wanted. But the way that I think about demand, and I've spoken to it quite a bit over the last couple of quarters. Demand remains strong, and that is very broad-based across the business. And so if you think about the down market, you still have the strength of small business formations. You have the strength of hiring that's happening in the down market. And as such you have clients there needing to make decisions around our HCM offers in that space, right?

我認為，就 HCM 在當前宏觀環境下的決策延遲和/或興趣是什麼而言。因此，我將對一般需求環境進行評論，如果我沒有涵蓋您想要的內容，請隨時提出其他問題。但我對需求的看法，在過去幾個季度裡我已經談過很多次了。需求仍然強勁，並且在整個行業中都有廣泛的基礎。因此，如果考慮到低迷的市場，小型企業仍然具有優勢。你有能力在低迷的市場中進行招聘。因此，您的客戶需要圍繞我們在該領域的 HCM 產品做出決策，對吧？

So that's definitely a place that we've been winning, and we'll continue to lean in as warranted by the demand. The mid-market, as we talked about that a little bit earlier in terms of the overall demand there for the complexity that exists in that market. That's inclusive again of the solution we have around our HR outsourcing offerings. And so that's kind of the mid-market.

因此，這絕對是我們一直在贏得的地方，我們將根據需求繼續努力。中端市場，正如我們之前談到的，就該市場存在的複雜性的總體需求而言。這再次包含了我們圍繞人力資源外包產品提供的解決方案。這就是中端市場。

So getting to your question, which is really about the enterprise space and perhaps even the MNC space, it is an area that we continue to watch as it relates to demand cycles, decision delays. And the main reason is those are really the places that you -- as you're aware, have additional, perhaps signers, additional levels of approval, things of that nature. And what I would say, which is consistent with what we've been seeing, is that we are back to pre-pandemic levels. So deal cycles did shorten during the pandemic, and they elongated back the pre-pandemic. But it isn't something that we're seeing additional elongation beyond historical averages.

因此，回到你的問題，這實際上是關於企業領域，甚至可能是跨國公司領域，這是我們繼續關注的一個領域，因為它與需求週期、決策延遲有關。主要原因是，正如您所知，這些確實是您擁有額外（也許是簽名者）、額外級別的批准等類似性質的地方。我想說的是，我們已經回到了大流行前的水平，這與我們所看到的情況是一致的。因此，交易週期在大流行期間確實縮短了，並且又拉長了大流行前的周期。但我們並沒有看到超出歷史平均水平的額外伸長。

And so to your point, though, it is an area that we consistently watch both in the enterprise space as well as in our international business, just to kind of see if the demand cycle is at the client's appetite to make buying decisions or implementation decisions during this time has changed thus far. We're not seeing it in a broad-based way. But it is an area that we continue to monitor.

因此，就您的觀點而言，這是我們在企業領域以及國際業務中始終關注的一個領域，只是為了了解需求週期是否符合客戶的胃口以做出購買決策或實施決策到目前為止，這段時間已經發生了變化。我們並沒有以廣泛的方式看待它。但這是我們繼續監控的一個領域。

Okay. No, that's great. You answered it better than I asked the question. Just on the -- as a quick follow-up, just I heard a lot about the sales and the go-to-market investments that makes sense. Just how about R&D growth here in the upcoming year versus fiscal '23? How might growth be different? And also, how might the composition be different in terms of where you're placing your bets on R&D. That's all I had.

好的。不，那太好了。你回答的比我問的問題好。作為快速跟進，我聽到了很多有關銷售和市場投資的有意義的信息。與 23 財年相比，明年的研發增長情況如何？增長有何不同？此外，就您在研發上的投資方向而言，組成可能會有何不同。這就是我所擁有的一切。

Yes. I think we have a number of projects that we've shared with you all over the past number of quarters. Those projects are well underway. We won't spend a lot of time talking about specific Gen AI product -- projects, but I guess that would be a place that would anticipate, I'll get a question -- we'll get a question for that later on in this call, given it's so topical.

是的。我認為我們在過去幾個季度與您分享了許多項目。這些項目正在順利進行中。我們不會花很多時間討論特定的 Gen AI 產品——項目，但我想這將是一個可以預見的地方，我會得到一個問題——我們稍後會得到一個問題。鑑於這個電話如此熱門。

But generally, we're continuing our direction with the investments that we've described over the past number of quarters, and we continue to make good progress. We continue to have good delivery. The ability to take role to markets in Europe is an example of that, how investments in that development and that technology has increased. And by the way, that's part of our broader strategy that we've touched on many times, is to take some of these developments and make sure that they're global in nature as opposed to only local in nature. So nothing incredibly new, just a continuation of the great work and the great projects we have underway.

但總的來說，我們將繼續我們過去幾個季度所描述的投資方向，並且我們繼續取得良好進展。我們繼續保持良好的交貨狀態。進入歐洲市場的能力就是一個例子，對開發和技術的投資是如何增加的。順便說一句，這是我們多次提到的更廣泛戰略的一部分，就是採取其中一些發展並確保它們本質上是全球性的，而不是僅限於本地性的。因此，沒有什麼令人難以置信的新鮮事，只是我們正在進行的偉大工作和偉大項目的延續。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自貝爾德的馬克·馬爾孔。

Let me add my congratulations, particularly on the strong new bookings. Maria, you went through your 3 key strategic initiatives and all the subsections, of the various initiatives, which ones are going to be the most impactful do you think from a near-term perspective? And then one specific question. Within the mid-market, you mentioned not only deploying Next Gen payroll, but you also talked about the time engine. And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on that.

請允許我表示祝賀，特別是對強勁的新預訂表示祝賀。瑪麗亞，您詳細了解了 3 個關鍵戰略舉措以及各個舉措的所有小節，從近期角度來看，您認為哪些舉措最具影響力？然後是一個具體問題。在中端市場，您不僅提到了部署下一代薪資，還談到了時間引擎。我想知道你是否可以詳細說明一下。

Sure. And thank you, Mark. I appreciate the congratulations. So I am very excited about the strategic priorities as I outlined during the prepared remarks. I don't know that I was necessarily expecting to have to pick a favorite pillar or a -- one that I expect to yield impact faster than another because I think broadly speaking, they apply across all of ADP, and they will depend a bit as it relates to kind of each business, right?

當然。謝謝你，馬克。我很感激你的祝賀。因此，我對我在準備好的發言中概述的戰略重點感到非常興奮。我不知道我是否一定期望必須選擇一個最喜歡的支柱或一個我希望比另一個更快產生影響的支柱，因為我認為從廣義上講，它們適用於所有 ADP，並且它們將有點依賴因為它與每項業務的類型有關，對吧？

And so when I think about some of the product investments that we're making, some of the things, the work that we've done and the impact, whether it's taking a product like Roll internationally, which I mentioned earlier, won't be in a short-term results, but some of the impact of continuing to build on the momentum we have in the mid-market with our Next Generation Payroll engine, as an example, where we have an ability to win differently, we see competitive advantages and differentiation there. I think that's an area that can have tremendous impact in short order.

因此，當我想到我們正在做的一些產品投資、一些事情、我們所做的工作以及影響時，無論是像我之前提到的 Roll 這樣的產品走向國際，都不會短期結果，但繼續利用我們的下一代薪資引擎在中端市場建立勢頭的一些影響，例如，我們有能力以不同的方式獲勝，我們看到競爭那裡的優勢和差異化。我認為這是一個可以在短期內產生巨大影響的領域。

I think the other is, Don did it first, which is he mentioned the likes of generative AI. And when I think about that, the Gen AI and applying it broadly across these pillars, I think there is opportunity for us in product that's pretty tremendous, whether it's solving real opportunities for our clients to become more efficient. We've talked a lot about that, whether that's things like job descriptions, performance reviews, things of that nature.

我認為另一個是，唐首先做到了，他提到了生成人工智能之類的東西。當我想到這一點時，Gen AI 並將其廣泛應用於這些支柱，我認為我們的產品有相當巨大的機會，無論它是否為我們的客戶提供了提高效率的真正機會。我們已經對此討論了很多，無論是工作描述、績效評估還是類似性質的事情。

But it also leads me kind of to that second pillar to your point around what will come short term versus long term. I think there's opportunity in the short term that will make impact as well as the long term in terms of really applying generative AI across our expertise that we provide to our clients. And so when I think about our ability to make it easier for our clients to engage with us or our associates to engage with our clients, some of the tools that we have already deployed across various businesses and will further deploy into fiscal '24, such as -- think of it almost as a copilot agent assist where we're helping our agents be more efficient. That's going to yield short-term results if nothing else in client satisfaction. And again, we know happy clients lead to a longer staying clients that leads to more sales and the wheel if you will.

但這也讓我想到了你關於短期與長期的觀點的第二個支柱。我認為，在我們為客戶提供的專業知識中真正應用生成式人工智能方面，短期內和長期內都有機會產生影響。因此，當我想到我們有能力讓我們的客戶更輕鬆地與我們或我們的同事與我們的客戶互動時，我們已經在各個業務中部署了一些工具，並將進一步部署到 24 財年，例如就像——把它想像成副駕駛代理協助，我們幫助我們的代理提高效率。如果不考慮客戶滿意度的話，這將產生短期效果。再說一遍，我們知道滿意的客戶會帶來更長久的客戶停留時間，從而帶來更多的銷售額和車輪（如果您願意的話）。

So I think there are opportunities across all of the strategic priorities to have some impact us sooner than the long term. But yes, I'm equally excited about all of them. And certainly, we spoke quite a bit about the global piece.

因此，我認為所有戰略優先事項都有機會比長期更早地對我們產生一些影響。但是，是的，我對所有這些都同樣感到興奮。當然，我們也談了很多關於全球性的話題。

In terms of the next generation time engine, that is being developed in tandem with our Next Generation Payroll engine. And those 2 things are really about time and payroll sitting together in our mid-market. It is a based on the same backbone of technology.

就下一代時間引擎而言，它是與我們的下一代薪資引擎一起開發的。這兩件事實際上與我們中端市場的時間和工資有關。它是一個基於相同骨幹的技術。

And so we're very excited to take that more broadly across the mid-market as we continue to take the Next Generation Payroll engine also more broadly crossed. And I think both of those things will get feathered into the impact of our win rates, if you will, and our new business bookings in the mid-market throughout the course of '24.

因此，我們非常高興能夠在中端市場更廣泛地採用這一點，因為我們將繼續更廣泛地採用下一代薪資引擎。我認為，如果你願意的話，這兩件事都會影響我們的贏率，以及整個 24 年中端市場的新業務預訂。

And then, Don, you mentioned the margin expectations for the full year. And you mentioned that in the first quarter, it's probably going to be a little bit lower and then feather up over the course of the year. How much lower during the first quarter? And what's the driver there? And then how should we think about the pacing of the improvement quarter-to-quarter?

然後，唐，您提到了全年的利潤預期。您提到，在第一季度，它可能會略低一些，然後在一年中逐漸上升。第一季度下降了多少？那裡的司機是什麼？那麼我們應該如何思考每個季度改善的節奏呢？

Yes, Mark, thanks for the question. The -- we're not looking at a big change in the first quarter, but just a couple of the drivers. Just to be clear. One, we do have some incremental investment in cost and headcount, et cetera. But the other big driver in the first quarter is it's a big borrowing quarter for us in our laddered client fund interest strategy. So that's going to put a little bit of pressure on the margin for the fourth -- sorry, for the first quarter. And the margin will continue to build over the course of the year, and we will get the overall improvement that we expected, but more out of the 3 quarters as opposed to the first.

是的，馬克，謝謝你的提問。我們並沒有看到第一季度發生重大變化，而只是看到了幾個驅動因素。只是要明確一點。第一，我們確實在成本和員工人數等方面進行了一些增量投資。但第一季度的另一個重要推動因素是，對於我們的階梯式客戶資金利息策略來說，這是一個大借貸季度。因此，這會給第四季度的利潤率帶來一些壓力——抱歉，是第一季度的利潤率。利潤率將在這一年中繼續增加，我們將得到我們預期的整體改善，但與第一個季度相比，第三個季度的改善更多。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自尤金·西穆尼和莫菲特·內桑森。

I want to come back to the PEO for a second. So great to hear about strong PEO bookings in the fourth quarter and going into the new year. Can you provide a bit more color on what helped generate this reacceleration in bookings? I know you talked in the past, Maria, about some of the actions you guys have taken to generate PEO sales. I would love to hear what caused the acceleration in bookings? And are those initiatives that those kind of levers you're pulling now completely pulled or is it still work in progress and will continue into FY '24?

我想再談談 PEO。很高興聽到第四季度和進入新的一年的 PEO 預訂量強勁。您能否提供更多信息來說明是什麼幫助促成了預訂量的重新加速？瑪麗亞，我知道您過去曾談到過你們為實現 PEO 銷售而採取的一些行動。我很想知道是什麼導致了預訂量的加速？您現在正在採取的那些舉措是否已完全取消，或者仍在進行中並將持續到 24 財年？

Sure, Eugene. PEO bookings, again, we're incredibly pleased with the results in the fourth quarter and the reacceleration. We also did see the reacceleration in the third quarter. So the back half of the PEO was exactly as you suggested. It was a lot of focus for the management team, and I'm really excited about how we came together to execute. And in terms of the overall demand trends in long term, short term, I remain bullish on the overall value proposition of the PEO and the demand that it warrants. It's hard in that business to kind of pin down the demand trends because there are so many variables. And in the PEO, it's not as simple as looking at just leads and number of request for proposals that are coming in, because as you know, not every client as a potential fits.

當然，尤金。 PEO 預訂，我們對第四季度的業績和重新加速感到非常滿意。我們也確實看到了第三季度的重新加速。所以 PEO 的後半部分完全按照你的建議。這是管理團隊非常關注的焦點，我對我們如何齊心協力執行感到非常興奮。就長期、短期的整體需求趨勢而言，我仍然看好 PEO 的整體價值主張及其所保證的需求。在這個行業中，很難確定需求趨勢，因為變量太多。在 PEO 中，這並不像只查看潛在客戶和收到的提案請求數量那麼簡單，因為如您所知，並不是每個潛在客戶都適合。

So it's a little difficult to pin down kind of the various demand trends in the specificity outside of the overall belief in the demand environment. And there's normal level of kind of variability as it relates to PEO bookings quarter-to-quarter, which also makes it hard to kind of spot various trends. Some of that has to do with the calendar year-end, some of that has to do with when renewals happen. But nonetheless, there was a tremendous amount of focus and still remains. We remain very focused as a team across all of the leadership to make sure that we continue to drive the strong growth in bookings in the PEO in '24.

因此，在需求環境的總體信念之外，確定各種需求趨勢的特殊性有點困難。由於每個季度的 PEO 預訂量存在正常程度的變化，這也使得很難發現各種趨勢。其中一些與日曆年末有關，另一些與續訂時間有關。但儘管如此，人們仍然對它給予了極大的關注。作為一個跨領導層的團隊，我們仍然非常專注，以確保我們繼續推動 24 年 PEO 預訂量的強勁增長。

Got it. Okay. And then for my follow-up, probably for Don. You talked about margin costs a little bit. So you expect another year of robust margin improvement next year, but obviously, you're not going to have as much tailwind in revenue growth as you had this year. And if you kind of do some of the (inaudible) math, it looks like your adjusted OpEx will need to grow slower next year than it did this year for you to hit your goal. So just hoping maybe you can talk a little bit what are the areas of spend where you will temper next year or maybe pull back, especially if macro conditions are not as good as kind of we expect them to be.

知道了。好的。然後是我的後續行動，可能是針對唐的。您談到了一點保證金成本。因此，您預計明年利潤率將再次強勁改善，但顯然，您將不會像今年那樣獲得收入增長的強勁動力。如果你做一些（聽不清）數學計算，看起來你明年調整後的運營支出增長需要比今年慢一些才能實現你的目標。因此，希望您能談談明年您將在哪些支出領域進行調整或縮減，尤其是在宏觀條件不如我們預期的情況下。

Yes. So thanks for the question. Let me start by what won't change. So what won't change is that we'll continue to make sure that we invest in key areas of the business to make sure that we can run it effectively and with the strong bookings, we'll make sure that we have the people on the ground for implementation to get those deals up and running and generating revenue for us, et cetera.

是的。謝謝你的提問。讓我從不會改變的事情開始。因此，不會改變的是，我們將繼續確保對業務的關鍵領域進行投資，以確保我們能夠有效地運營它，並且憑藉強勁的預訂量，我們將確保我們有人員實施這些交易並為我們創造收入等的基礎。

But in the last year, we did have pretty substantial growth in -- over the last couple of years coming out of the pandemic, I can't believe we're still talking about the pandemic but as we came up with that, we did have substantial growth in expenses, in service, implementation, sales, et cetera. And while we do continue to expect to see some growth, we're not going to see as much growth in expenses in those areas.

但去年，我們確實在過去幾年擺脫了大流行病，取得了相當大的增長，我不敢相信我們仍在談論大流行病，但當我們想到這一點時，我們做到了服務、實施、銷售等方面的費用大幅增長。雖然我們確實繼續期望看到一些增長，但我們不會看到這些領域的支出增長那麼多。

So that would be one of the areas that is going to make sure and you hit on that with respect to OpEx, we're not going to see the growth in OpEx expense that we saw in the prior year.

因此，這將是要確保的領域之一，就運營支出而言，我們不會看到上一年看到的運營支出增長。

The other contributor, of course, that will continue to contribute, I think the yield curve is more favorable than it was the last time I spoke to you all. We will get contribution from client fund interest next year. But at the same time, it's not going to be to the extent that we did in '23. So that's also going to help with driving margins higher. But once again, not the same tailwind -- tailwinds that we had in '23. I think those are the main items that are going to help us improve our margins going into next year.

當然，另一個貢獻者將繼續做出貢獻，我認為收益率曲線比我上次與大家交談時更加有利。明年我們將從客戶資金利息中獲得貢獻。但與此同時，它不會達到我們 23 年所做的程度。因此，這也將有助於提高利潤率。但再一次，不是同樣的順風——我們在 23 年所經歷的順風。我認為這些是將幫助我們提高明年利潤率的主要項目。

Our next question comes from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

Maybe, Don, first on the cadence of revenue growth. I know you said it should be relatively stable throughout the year, but wondering if you can maybe sort of parse that out between ES and PEO if there's any differences we should think about there?

唐，也許首先是收入增長的節奏。我知道您說過全年應該相對穩定，但想知道您是否可以解析 ES 和 PEO 之間是否存在我們應該考慮的差異？

Yes. So I think revenue growth is going to be -- revenue growth is going to be pretty consistent throughout the year as we start that big backlog that we now have as a result of that very, very strong fourth quarter bookings result. So we will see consistency there. Likewise with PEO, it's going to be a bit of a slower burn as we did have strong sales in Q4. So we did also talk about slightly lower pays per control growth in the PEO business. So -- but I don't think they're really going to be that different. I think they're going to be pretty close if you think about the overall growth and when you consolidate the results for the company, not substantially different between the business units.

是的。因此，我認為收入增長將是——全年收入增長將相當一致，因為我們開始積壓大量訂單，而這是由於第四季度非常非常強勁的預訂結果而造成的。所以我們會看到那裡的一致性。同樣，PEO 的燃燒速度將會稍慢一些，因為我們在第四季度的銷售確實強勁。因此，我們確實還討論了 PEO 業務中每次控制增長的薪酬略低。所以——但我認為它們不會真的有那麼不同。我認為，如果您考慮整體增長以及合併公司的業績，那麼它們將非常接近，並且業務部門之間沒有太大差異。

Yes, Scott, there is a slightly different cadence for the 2, it's not a huge difference. For PEO, we do expect an acceleration over the course of the year. So the contribution we get from our bookings and from the improvements in retention, we're expecting gradually overcoming slowing pays per control that should lead to an accelerating PEO revenue growth.

是的，斯科特，兩者的節奏略有不同，但差異並不大。對於 PEO，我們確實預計今年會加速增長。因此，我們從預訂和保留率的提高中獲得的貢獻，我們預計將逐漸克服每個控件付費放緩的問題，這將導致 PEO 收入加速增長。

And on ES, we're expecting some deceleration assuming pays per control decelerate and assuming the contribution from client funds interest starts to fade gradually over the course of the year. So you end up with 2 different-looking ramps, but they offset and that's what nets us to a very stable revenue growth overall.

在 ES 上，我們預計會出現一些減速，假設每個控制的支付減速，並假設客戶資金利息的貢獻在一年中開始逐漸消失。所以你最終會得到兩個看起來不同的斜坡，但它們相互抵消，這就是我們整體收入非常穩定增長的原因。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on the Gen AI topic, going back to it. Obviously, there's a lot to sort of be excited about there. But just kind of wondering the magnitude of investment needed there, is that investment essentially all incremental to your investment plans for the year? Or have you had to maybe put some other projects on the back burner to focus a little more on Gen AI?

知道了。這非常有幫助。然後也許只是 Gen AI 主題的後續，回到它。顯然，有很多值得興奮的地方。但只是想知道那裡需要多少投資，這些投資基本上都是您今年投資計劃的增量嗎？或者您是否不得不暫時擱置其他一些項目，以便更多地關注 Gen AI？

Yes and yes. And so said differently, the good news is we just went through our strategic plan process in the last 6 months. And so we had all of our priority sequence in all of our investments and incremental investments lined up. As we marry that to Gen AI, we have a very clear lens on where some projects may get enhanced, and where some projects may look different and perhaps get replaced by a new way of thinking about it.

是的，是的。換句話說，好消息是我們剛剛完成了過去 6 個月的戰略計劃流程。因此，我們在所有投資和增量投資中都安排了所有優先順序。當我們將其與 Gen AI 結合起來時，我們對某些項目可能會在哪些方面得到增強，以及哪些項目可能看起來有所不同，並且可能會被一種新的思考方式所取代，有了一個非常清晰的視角。

And so candidly speaking, we're going through a lot of these opportunities at this juncture kind of thinking through the bets and there will be incremental investment, and there will be other investments that we repurposed to go do some of these things in a new way. So the answer is both.

坦率地說，在這個時刻，我們正在經歷很多這樣的機會，通過賭注進行思考，將會有增量投資，並且我們還會有其他投資，我們會重新調整用途，以新的方式來做這些事情。方式。所以答案是兩者兼而有之。

Our next question comes from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的彼得·克里斯蒂安森。

I'll also add to the congratulations ratio. Nice trends. Maria, a question on the international scaling effort here. I was just wondering if you -- in this context, if you could put some parameters on expected investment spend, I guess, over the next 1 to 2 years? And do you see M&A as an important contributor to the growth algorithm there?

我也會增加祝賀比例。不錯的趨勢。瑪麗亞，這是關於國際擴展工作的問題。我只是想知道在這種情況下，您是否可以對未來 1 到 2 年內的預期投資支出設定一些參數？您是否認為併購是該地區增長算法的重要貢獻者？

Sure. You started with a question on international. So is the rest of your question about international? Or is it just in general?

當然。您首先提出了一個有關國際的問題。那麼你剩下的問題是關於國際的嗎？或者只是一般情況？

Yes, international.

是的，國際的。

About international. Yes. So we have been, over the years, been making in-country decisions on investments. I talked a lot about the, call it, the feet on the street, the final mile of infrastructure that we have to support our international business. And so we will continue to do that. That's inclusive of each year. We go into new markets and some of those are organic ways that we go into new markets. Some of those are actually partners that we ultimately end up at some point, call it, purchasing, if you will, or acquiring. And so the answer is both organic and inorganic. That's kind of how we've built the business over the last 20 years. And we will continue where warranted to think about it both ways. And the decision criteria for us is really about speed.

關於國際。是的。因此，多年來我們一直在國內做出投資決策。我談到了很多關於我們必須支持我們的國際業務的街道上的基礎設施的最後一英里。因此我們將繼續這樣做。這包括每年。我們進入新市場，其中一些是我們進入新市場的有機方式。其中一些實際上是我們最終在某個時刻成為的合作夥伴，可以稱之為購買（如果你願意的話）或收購。所以答案既是有機的又是無機的。這就是我們在過去 20 年裡建立業務的方式。我們將繼續在有必要的情況下從兩個方面進行思考。我們的決策標準實際上與速度有關。

A lot of times, it's our clients that pulled us into incremental markets. When I think about the 5 markets that we went into this year or the 2 countries that we're heading into with global view, they're byproduct of clients that are choosing to pay employees in certain markets. And as such, for us, a lot of times the decision we make on how to get there, has a lot to do with speed. And as such, again, we will leverage both organic and inorganic ways to get there. So I don't know -- Don, you ran our international business for a very long time, I don't know if you want to add anything.

很多時候，是我們的客戶把我們拉進了增量市場。當我想到我們今年進入的 5 個市場或我們以全球視野進入的 2 個國家時，它們是客戶選擇向某些市場的員工支付工資的副產品。因此，對於我們來說，很多時候我們做出的如何到達目標的決定與速度有很大關係。因此，我們將再次利用有機和無機的方式來實現這一目標。所以我不知道——唐，你經營我們的國際業務很長時間了，我不知道你是否想補充什麼。

Yes, maybe just to add, I think what we've been doing, Peter, over the last number of years is we have done a number of acquisitions. They've been mostly tuck-ins, but we did have 3 interesting ones over the last year. We acquired an Italian company that has a good budget -- payroll budgeting software tool that's very prominent in the Italian market. We acquired our (inaudible) partner in South Africa, and we also bought a very exciting mid-market time-and-attendance product called SecureX in out of Bangalore and India. So -- and that product is available in India, most of Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

是的，也許只是補充一下，彼得，我認為我們在過去幾年中一直在做的是我們進行了多次收購。它們大部分都是塞進去的，但去年我們確實有 3 個有趣的。我們收購了一家擁有良好預算的意大利公司——在意大利市場非常突出的工資預算軟件工具。我們收購了南非的（聽不清）合作夥伴，還在班加羅爾和印度購買了一款非常令人興奮的中端市場考勤產品 SecureX。因此，該產品在印度、東南亞大部分地區和中東地區都有售。

So I think that's a demonstration of what we've been doing, we've been looking at and focused on to continue to make sure we grow that footprint, and we do think it continues to be an exciting space for us.

所以我認為這證明了我們一直在做的事情，我們一直在關注並專注於繼續確保我們擴大足跡，我們確實認為這對我們來說仍然是一個令人興奮的空間。

That's great color. And Don, just as a follow-up, last slide on the maturation schedule of client fund investments, super helpful. But as we think about intra-year investment turnover, should that correlate with the seasonal balance levels that we typically see?

那顏色真棒。唐，作為客戶基金投資成熟時間表的後續、最後一張幻燈片，非常有幫助。但當我們考慮年內投資周轉率時，這是否與我們通常看到的季節性平衡水平相關？

Yes. So I think as those investments mature, you're going to see those investments reinvested at higher rates, and we do expect to see our average return go up over the course of the year. The current reinvestment schedules, overnights are reinvesting at 5%. The extended in the loan portfolios are being reinvested at about 4%. We don't expect to see a huge change in the mix although the average duration of our investments has shortened a little bit over the last couple of years, but you can pretty much look at those yields, look at the maturity schedule that we provided and then look at the composition of our portfolio across the overnight, the extended and the long and pretty much come to a conclusion or come to some numbers on where you think we're going to end up.

是的。因此，我認為隨著這些投資的成熟，您將看到這些投資以更高的利率進行再投資，我們確實預計我們的平均回報率在一年中會上升。目前的再投資時間表，隔夜再投資利率為 5%。擴大的貸款組合正在以約 4% 的利率進行再投資。儘管我們的投資平均期限在過去幾年中有所縮短，但我們預計投資組合不會發生巨大變化，但您幾乎可以查看這些收益率，查看我們提供的到期時間表然後看看我們的隔夜投資組合、長期投資組合和長期投資組合的構成，幾乎可以得出結論或得出一些你認為我們最終會達到的數字。

Just one quick one. How should we think about the duration strategy, I guess, for the next couple of quarters here, now that the Fed is perhaps kind of like stabilized, but are -- is there an effort to extend duration shortened? Just any sense there would be helpful.

就快一點吧。我想，既然美聯儲可能有點穩定了，那麼我們應該如何考慮接下來幾個季度的久期策略，但是——是否有努力延長縮短的久期？只要有任何感覺都會有幫助。

Yes. We've had this question a few times, and the answer is we've been very successful with the strategy that we've had for the last 20 years. We certainly see that there is an opportunity cost not ever having everything in short today. At the same time, we do believe that the yield curve will normalize and the strategy we've had in place will come back and be beneficial to us over the longer term. So you shouldn't expect any significant change in our investment strategy.

是的。我們已經多次被問到這個問題，答案是我們過去 20 年的戰略非常成功。我們當然看到，今天一切都沒有那麼短，這是有機會成本的。與此同時，我們確實相信收益率曲線將會正常化，我們已經採取的策略將會回歸，並從長遠來看對我們有利。因此，您不應期望我們的投資策略發生任何重大變化。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福賽特。

I wanted to go back quickly on retention. I know you've touched on it a little bit. Last year, your initial outlook called for around 50 -- minus 50 to minus 25 basis points of retention degradation. But that obviously didn't really play out. And this year, you're starting with a more conservative kind of minus 70 to minus 50. But I'm hoping you could speak to how much conservatism is embedded there? And what are the drivers that you're seeing as a reason to be a little bit more conservative to start than maybe you were last year even?

我想快速回到保留方面。我知道你已經觸及了一點。去年，您最初的展望是保留率下降約 50 - 負 50 至 -25 個基點。但這顯然並沒有真正發揮作用。今年，你從負 70 到負 50 的更保守的角度開始。但我希望你能談談其中蘊藏著多少保守主義？您認為哪些驅動因素是您開始比去年更加保守的原因？

Yes, fair -- it's a fair observation, James. Appreciate it. I think the we thought about -- by the way, I wish I knew the answer, right? So the question you're asking, which is how much conservatism is in there? And that's all to say and you hit the nail on the head, we stepped into this year guiding minus 25 to 50, we're stepping into fiscal '24 with a guide of minus 50 to 70, and we hope -- I'll end -- or I'll start with, we're very happy with where things are. We're firing on all cylinders. We have many businesses that have record NS results, record retention results, and everything is good.

是的，公平——這是一個公平的觀察，詹姆斯。欣賞它。我想我們想過——順便說一句，我希望我知道答案，對吧？所以你問的問題是，其中有多少保守主義？這就是說，你擊中了要害，我們今年的指導值為負 25 到 50，我們進入 24 財年的指導值為負 50 到 70，我們希望——我會結束——或者我首先說，我們對現狀非常滿意。我們正在全力以赴。我們有許多企業擁有創紀錄的 NS 結果、創紀錄的保留結果，一切都很好。

And so as we step into the year, the way that we are modeling what you would see in pays per control. The way we're thinking about the potential macroeconomic tempering, if you will, specifically in the back half, is really a byproduct of how we see retention.

因此，當我們進入這一年時，我們對您在按控件付費中看到的內容進行建模的方式。如果你願意的話，我們考慮潛在宏觀經濟緩和的方式，特別是在後半段，實際上是我們如何看待保留的副產品。

Part of what we saw in the fourth quarter that led to the incredible results that we had was that the normalization that we've been seeing in the down market. We did actually see the down market bounce a little bit. So even while it was down year-on-year, it came in stronger than we expected. And so we do anticipate that we may need to give some of that back, which is why we believe it was prudent to align our retention targets to our medium-term targets that we gave back in the Investor Day of 2021.

我們在第四季度看到的導致令人難以置信的業績的部分原因是我們在低迷市場中看到的正常化。我們確實看到下跌的市場有所反彈。因此，儘管同比下降，但它的表現比我們預期的要強。因此，我們確實預計我們可能需要回饋其中的一部分，這就是為什麼我們認為將我們的保留目標與我們在 2021 年投資者日回饋的中期目標保持一致是謹慎的。

So I wish I knew the answer to your question in terms of how much conservatism, why we are guiding to what we're guiding is really about the economic outlook, whether that's GDP, unemployment is still at record lows. We haven't seen unemployment rates that low since the 60s. And so our guess is as good as yours at some level, but we did build in some tempering of the economy in the back half, and that's really what's yielding that guide on the retention.

因此，我希望我知道你的問題的答案，即有多少保守主義，為什麼我們所指導的內容實際上是關於經濟前景的，無論是國內生產總值，還是失業率仍處於歷史低點。自 20 世紀 60 年代以來，我們從未見過如此低的失業率。因此，我們的猜測在某種程度上與您的猜測一樣好，但我們確實在後半段對經濟進行了一些調整，這確實是產生保留指南的原因。

I appreciate that color, Maria. That's really helpful and makes a lot of sense. I want to turn quickly also to M&A. You mentioned it in the prepared remarks, also, I mentioned it as part of at least some of your strategic initiatives. What are you seeing in terms of overall valuation levels? And what kind of things would you be targeting in terms of geography or product capabilities?

我很欣賞這種顏色，瑪麗亞。這確實很有幫助並且很有意義。我也想快速轉向併購。您在準備好的發言中提到了這一點，我也提到了它，至少作為您的一些戰略舉措的一部分。您對整體估值水平有何看法？在地理或產品功能方面，您的目標是什麼？

Yes, James. So in terms of what we're targeting, what we're talking about, there's always things kicking around, of course, but we want to make sure that anything that we do acquire either fits well in the core and gives us additional capability, or it's something that really exceeds some functionality capability that we currently have, so that we're not stacking on more and more product on top of what we already have.

是的，詹姆斯。因此，就我們的目標、我們正在談論的內容而言，當然總會有一些事情在發生，但我們希望確保我們所做的任何事情要么很好地適合核心，要么為我們提供額外的能力，或者它確實超出了我們目前擁有的某些功能，因此我們不會在現有產品的基礎上堆疊越來越多的產品。

The other area, of course, is to make sure that we do things that our natural adjacencies are very strong adjacencies to what we already do so that they fit well. And then thirdly, of course, is making sure that we can sell these things and run these things in a recurring model. So that we can sell them the way we sell everything else we sell today and operate them and expect to get revenue anticipation and good model from what we buy.

當然，另一個領域是確保我們所做的事情與我們已經做的事情非常相似，以便它們能夠很好地契合。第三，當然，是確保我們可以出售這些東西並以循環模型運行這些東西。這樣我們就可以像今天銷售其他產品一樣銷售它們並運營它們，並期望從我們購買的產品中獲得收入預期和良好的模型。

So I think those are the things we think about. I think we're hearing a lot around valuations coming down in the press, certainly a little bit of a dearth of activity, if you will, in the M&A space these days. But we do have lots of conversations about acquisitions and whatnot. I still think, of course, everybody is looking to get a premium what they have. And we're trying to make sure that if we're going to buy something, we're paying the right price. But we don't actually get to the point of many of these conversations given the conditions that I stated at the front at the outset to actually have a view on overall valuations in the market.

所以我認為這些是我們考慮的事情。我認為我們在媒體上聽到了很多關於估值下降的消息，如果你願意的話，這些天在併購領域肯定有點缺乏活動。但我們確實有很多關於收購之類的對話。當然，我仍然認為每個人都希望獲得溢價。我們正在努力確保如果我們要買東西，我們會支付合適的價格。但考慮到我在開頭所說的實際對市場整體估值有看法的條件，我們實際上並沒有觸及其中許多對話的要點。

We likely get to talking about valuation in a very, very few number of cases. Remembering, of course, very, very few of the opportunities we get even get to that conversation. So I don't think I can say we have a general view. But we are focused on what we would have to pay and how things would fit into ADP.

我們可能會在非常非常少的情況下談論估值。當然，請記住，我們進行這種對話的機會非常非常少。所以我認為我不能說我們有普遍的看法。但我們關注的是我們必須支付的費用以及這些費用如何融入 ADP。

Our last question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Maria and Don, you've obviously talked a lot about the PEO and seems that the demand has really picked up. But I'm wondering, are you seeing any of your customers may be taking a little bit of a breather now pointing to sign up for the PEO because of the uncertainty in the economy and that being maybe more expensive product?

Maria 和 Don，顯然你們已經談論了很多關於 PEO 的問題，看來需求確實有所增加。但我想知道，您是否發現您的任何客戶現在可能會因為經濟的不確定性以及可能更昂貴的產品而打算簽署 PEO？

The PEO has a tremendous value proposition. I think we always refer to ADP as an all-weather company. I would say the most durable of our all-weather businesses is the PEO. And a lot of that has to do with the ability to flex that value proposition in a downturn pretty quickly. So if you think about clients that are growing, they enjoy the PEO because it's a quick go-to-market.

PEO 具有巨大的價值主張。我認為我們總是將 ADP 稱為全天候公司。我想說，我們的全天候業務中最持久的就是 PEO。這在很大程度上與在經濟低迷時期快速調整價值主張的能力有關。因此，如果您考慮正在增長的客戶，他們會喜歡 PEO，因為它可以快速進入市場。

On the downside, if you will, as clients are potentially trying to work through economic headwinds. The PEO serves as a place that has a clear return on investment, has a total cost of ownership that's very again, very clear. And so I think it's a business that not to suggest that it's not impacted by a downturn, but it's a business that kind of works in both. What I would say is our sales force, we're able to pivot that narrative and that value proposition as warranted. I don't believe that has happened.

不利的一面是，如果你願意的話，因為客戶可能會試圖克服經濟逆風。 PEO 是一個具有明確投資回報的地方，其總擁有成本也非常非常明確。因此，我認為這並不是說它不會受到經濟衰退的影響，但它是一種在兩方面都有效的業務。我想說的是我們的銷售隊伍，我們能夠根據需要調整敘述和價值主張。我不相信這已經發生了。

So to answer the question, our clients at this point, hesitant to purchase something such as the PEO that's so comprehensive because of the macroeconomic challenges. And my view would be no. I think that's substantiated by the record results that we had in the PEO bookings in the quarter. We also saw that strength in bookings in the third quarter. So I think that value proposition is holding firm. And I think it's a business that should -- should the economic wins ever come to life that we've been expecting for so long. It's a business that can pivot pretty quickly and the demand for the offer remains.

因此，為了回答這個問題，我們的客戶目前由於宏觀經濟挑戰而猶豫是否購買 PEO 等如此全面的產品。我的觀點是否定的。我認為本季度 PEO 預訂創紀錄的結果證實了這一點。我們還看到第三季度的預訂量強勁。所以我認為價值主張是堅定的。我認為，如果我們期待已久的經濟勝利能夠實現，那麼這個企業就應該實現。這是一項可以很快轉變的業務，而且對產品的需求仍然存在。

And then just a follow-up. Don, you talked about obviously pays per control and retention, and maybe retention moderating as the year goes through. For pays per control, would you anticipate that just to get to flat by the end of the year? Or are you anticipating that, that could potentially go negative, and that's how you've built the guidance?

然後只是後續行動。唐，您顯然談到了按控制和保留付費，並且隨著時間的推移，保留可能會有所緩和。對於按控制付費，您是否預計到年底就會持平？或者您是否預計這可能會出現負面影響，而這就是您制定指南的方式？

No. We're certainly not anticipating this as go negative. We do, though, think it's going to go to somewhere the neighborhood 1% to 2%, which is a little bit less than our historical average. However, I just want to make sure that everybody understands, we're exiting the year pretty healthily. So we figure we're off to a pretty good start, but we do expect that we're going to see a bit of a decline over the next 3, 4 quarters. And once again, we're aligning ourselves to the best we can with unemployment forecasts and et cetera.

不，我們當然不會預期這種情況會出現負面影響。不過，我們確實認為這一比例將達到 1% 到 2% 左右，這比我們的歷史平均水平略低一些。然而，我只是想確保每個人都明白，我們將以健康的方式結束這一年。因此，我們認為我們有了一個很好的開端，但我們確實預計未來 3、4 個季度會出現一些下降。我們再次盡最大努力調整失業預測等。

Kartik, if you're asking specifically about where we're exiting fiscal '24, then the pays per control is effectively decelerating from this kind of 3% range to something flatter.

Kartik，如果您具體詢問我們在 24 財年退出時的情況，那麼每次控制的支出實際上正在從 3% 的範圍下降到更平坦的水平。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I am pleased to hand the program over to Maria Black for closing remarks.

謝謝。我們今天的問答部分就到此結束。我很高興將該節目交給瑪麗亞·布萊克 (Maria Black) 進行閉幕致辭。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining today. As you've heard, Don and I, the entire leadership team, we're incredibly pleased with fiscal '23, specifically the fourth quarter and the finish.

謝謝你們，也謝謝大家今天的加入。正如您所聽到的，唐和我，整個領導團隊，我們對 23 財年，特別是第四季度和結束感到非常滿意。

So I'll kind of end where I started, which is I want to take the opportunity to once again thank the associates that create this performance. It's an unbelievable magical thing to watch it all come together and deliver what we just delivered. And so my gratitude and I celebrate each and every one of them. I also want to thank all of the stakeholders, including all of you who listen today, appreciate the support. We're certainly excited for fiscal '24. So cheers to that.

所以我會從開始的地方結束，我想藉此機會再次感謝創造這次表演的同事們。看著這一切聚集在一起並交付我們剛剛交付的產品，這是一件令人難以置信的神奇事情。因此，我很感激並慶祝他們每一個人。我還要感謝所有利益相關者，包括今天聆聽的所有人，感謝你們的支持。我們對 24 財年當然感到興奮。對此歡呼吧。

Thank you for your participation. This concludes the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。程序到此結束，您現在可以斷開連接。大家，祝你有美好的一天。