自動資料處理 (ADP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning. My name is Michelle, and I'll be your conference operator. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded. After prepared remarks, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be given at that time.

早安.我是Michelle，本次會議的接線生。現在，我謹代表ADP公司歡迎各位參加2023財年第四季財報電話會議。請注意，本次會議正在錄音。在發言結束後，我們將進行問答環節，屆時會給予相關說明。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Danyal Hussain, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給投資者關係副總裁丹尼爾·侯賽因先生。請開始吧。

Thank you, Michelle, and welcome everyone to ADP's Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2023 Earnings Call. Participating today are Maria Black, our President and CEO; and Don McGuire, our CFO.

謝謝米歇爾，歡迎各位參加ADP 2023財年第四季財報電話會議。今天出席會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長瑪麗亞·布萊克和財務長唐·麥奎爾。

Earlier this morning, we released our results for the quarter and full year. Our earnings materials are available on the SEC's website and our Investor Relations website at investors.adp.com, where you will also find the investor presentation that accompanies today's call.

今天早些時候，我們發布了季度和全年業績報告。您可以在美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 網站和我們的投資者關係網站 investors.adp.com 上查閱我們的業績報告，該網站還提供今天電話會議的投資者簡報。

During our call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe to be useful to investors and that exclude the impact of certain items. A description of these items along with a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release.

在本次電話會議中，我們將提及非公認會計準則（非GAAP）財務指標。我們認為這些指標對投資者更有幫助，因為它們剔除了某些項目的影響。有關這些項目的說明以及非GAAP指標與最接近的GAAP指標的調節表，請參閱我們的獲利報告。

Today's call will also contain forward-looking statements that refer to future events and involve some risk. We encourage you to review our filings with the SEC for additional information on factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations.

今天的電話會議還將包含一些前瞻性陳述，這些陳述涉及未來事件，並存在一定風險。我們建議您查閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件，以了解可能導致實際結果與我們目前預期有重大差異的因素。

I'll now turn it over to Maria.

現在我把麥克風交給瑪麗亞。

Thank you, Danny, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. We closed out the year with a strong fourth quarter that included 9% organic constant currency revenue growth, 270 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and 26% adjusted EPS growth. And for our full year fiscal 2023, we delivered 10% organic constant currency revenue growth, 130 basis points of adjusted EBIT margin expansion and 17% adjusted EPS growth representing another strong year for ADP.

謝謝丹尼，也謝謝各位的參與。我們以強勁的第四季度業績為本年度畫上了圓滿的句號，其中包括9%的有機固定匯率收入增長、270個基點的調整後息稅前利潤率提升以及26%的調整後每股收益增長。展望2023財年全年，我們實現了10%的有機固定匯率收入增長、130個基點的調整後息稅前利潤率提升以及17%的調整後每股收益增長，這標誌著ADP又迎來了一個強勁的年份。

I'll start with some highlights from the quarter. Our worldwide sales and marketing team delivered exceptional Q4 Employer Services, new business Bookings growth that was well in excess of our expectations with strong double-digit overall growth on top of a difficult comparison. The HCM demand environment has been healthy despite a gradually slowing macroeconomic backdrop, and we have been capitalizing on this steady demand.

首先，我將介紹本季的一些亮點。我們的全球銷售和市場團隊在第四季度取得了卓越的業績，雇主服務新業務預訂量增長遠超預期，在去年同期基數較高的情況下，整體仍實現了強勁的兩位數增長。儘管宏觀經濟成長放緩，但人力資本管理 (HCM) 市場需求仍保持健康，我們也充分利用了這項穩定的需求。

Our strong bookings results were broad-based. We had continued strength in our down market and Employer Services HRO offerings, we also had better-than-expected results in our mid-market as well as a great finish from our compliance and international businesses. This Q4 performance brought our full year Employer Services bookings growth to 10% compared to our 6% to 9% guidance and our medium-term goal of 7% to 8% growth that we laid out at our 2021 Investor Day. We are, of course, thrilled with this result and excited to keep the momentum going.

我們強勁的預訂業績涵蓋廣泛領域。我們在低迷市場和雇主服務人力資源外包 (HRO) 產品方面持續保持強勁勢頭，中端市場業績也超出預期，合規和國際業務也取得了優異的收官成績。第四季業績使我們全年雇主服務預訂成長率達到 10%，高於我們先前 6% 至 9% 的預期，也高於我們在 2021 年投資者日上提出的 7% 至 8% 的中期成長目標。我們對這一業績感到非常滿意，並期待保持這一成長勢頭。

Our Employer Services retention rate was another highlight in Q4 and came in better than we expected. For the full year, we delivered a retention rate increase of 10 basis points and are back to our record level retention rate of 92.2%, all while absorbing the impact of normalization in the down market out of business rates. This strong result was driven by record-level retention rates, specifically in our U.S. mid-market and international businesses and by record level overall client satisfaction across our major businesses in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們的雇主服務客戶留存率表現亮眼，超乎預期。全年來看，我們的客戶留存率提升了10個基點，重回92.2%的歷史新高，同時也有效應對了市場低迷導致的停業率正常化帶來的影響。這項強勁的業績主要得益於創紀錄的客戶留存率，尤其是在美國中端市場和國際業務方面，以及第四季度主要業務客戶整體滿意度的顯著提升。

Our Employer Services pays per control growth was 3% for the quarter as the overall labor market continued to show resilience, bringing the full year pays per control figure to 5%. We have been pleased all year to see such durable labor demand from our clients. And last, while our PEO revenue growth performed in line with our expectations this quarter, we were pleased to experience a further acceleration in PEO bookings with strong double-digit growth in Q4, representing another record level sales quarter.

由於整體勞動市場持續展現韌性，本季我們的雇主服務按人頭付費成長了3%，全年按人頭付費成長率達到5%。我們很高興看到客戶全年對勞動力市場持續強勁的需求。最後，雖然本季我們的專業雇主組織（PEO）營收成長符合預期，但我們很高興看到PEO訂單量在第四季度進一步加速成長，實現了兩位數的強勁成長，再次創下銷售新高。

Moving on, while Don will cover our fiscal 2024 financial outlook, I wanted to spend a few minutes sharing our strategic priorities as we look ahead. Change and increase in complexity are secular growth drivers for the HCM industry. And our breadth enables us to address nearly any HCM challenge our clients may face and meet them wherever they may be on their HR journey. From start-up to enterprise, from software-only to fully outsourced, and from local to global, we see a tremendous growth opportunity in front of us. And while our specific growth initiatives will vary by business, there are 3 key strategic priorities, which apply across all of ADP that I see as critical to enabling our growth in the years ahead.

接下來，Don將介紹我們2024財年的財務展望，在此我想花幾分鐘時間分享我們展望未來的策略重點。變革和日益增長的複雜性是人力資本管理（HCM）產業長期成長的驅動力。我們廣泛的業務範圍使我們能夠應對客戶可能面臨的幾乎所有HCM挑戰，並在他們人力資源發展歷程的任何階段提供支援。從新創公司到大型企業，從純軟體到完全外包，從本地到全球，我們看到了巨大的成長機會。雖然我們具體的成長舉措會因業務而異，但有三個關鍵的策略重點適用於ADP的所有業務，我認為它們對於我們未來幾年的成長至關重要。

The first strategic priority is to lead with best-in-class HCM technology, put simply, our goal is to design, develop and deliver the very best and most innovative solutions that will help our clients navigate the full life cycle of employment. From hiring employees to onboarding and training them, providing insurance for them, paying them and filing payroll taxes and even setting them up for retirement.

首要策略重點是引領一流的人力資本管理（HCM）技術。簡而言之，我們的目標是設計、開發和交付最優質、最具創新性的解決方案，幫助客戶應對員工的整個生命週期，包括招聘、入職培訓、保險、工資發放、工資稅申報，甚至退休規劃。

As much as we offer today, we see an incredible opportunity to improve on our current and next-gen solutions, tactically use partnerships and inorganic means to further accelerate our pace of innovation and continues to offer industry-leading HCM products, and we expect to have a busy fiscal 2024. For U.S. small businesses, we are rolling out several product enhancements that will serve our 850,000 RUN clients, including a new tax ID registration service, learning management to help with small business employee training and an insurance inspector tool that utilizes AI to help clients manage their workers' compensation, insurance policies and annual audits.

儘管我們目前提供的產品和服務已經非常豐富，但我們仍然看到了巨大的發展機遇，可以進一步改進我們現有的以及下一代解決方案，巧妙地利用合作夥伴關係和外部增長手段來加快創新步伐，並持續提供行業領先的人力資本管理 (HCM) 產品。我們預計 2024 財年將非常繁忙。對於美國小型企業，我們正在推出多項產品升級，以服務我們 85 萬 RUN 客戶，其中包括新的稅務識別號註冊服務、用於幫助小型企業員工培訓的學習管理工具，以及一款利用人工智慧技術幫助客戶管理工傷賠償、保險單和年度審計的保險審核工具。

For U.S. midsized businesses served by Workforce Now, our focus is to continue our great momentum in the deployment of our Next Gen Payroll and time engine and to drive our win rates and client satisfaction even higher. In the U.S. enterprise space, we expect to nearly finish the migrations of 3 of our remaining legacy platforms by the end of this fiscal year representing an important step in our multiyear journey to move our clients to more modern platforms.

對於Workforce Now服務的美​​國中型企業，我們的重點是繼續保持部署新一代薪資和時間管理系統的強勁勢頭，並進一步提高我們的成功率和客戶滿意度。在美國企業級市場，我們預計將在本財年結束前基本完成剩餘三個傳統平台的遷移，這標誌著我們多年推動客戶向更現代化平台轉型的重要一步。

We are also pleased to have advanced the velocity of our Next Gen HCM implementations, and we expect our Next Gen HCM sales to contribute in a more meaningful way to our bookings growth in fiscal 2024. Outside the U.S., we intend to scale our iHCM mid-market platform in fiscal 2024, adding at least 1,000 clients over the course of the year. I am also incredibly excited to share that we will begin offering Roll outside the U.S. in fiscal 2024 to drive incremental growth.

我們很高興能夠加快下一代HCM（人力資本管理）系統的實施速度，並預計下一代HCM的銷售額將在2024財年對我們的訂單成長做出更顯著的貢獻。在美國以外地區，我們計劃在2024財年擴大iHCM中端市場平台的規模，並在年內至少新增1,000位客戶。此外，我非常興奮地宣布，我們將在2024財年開始在美國以外地區提供Roll服務，以推動業務成長。

We plan to launch initially in 2 countries in Europe and expand its reach from there, and we intend to continue growing our Asia Pacific business, in part by leveraging our recent acquisition of a strong mid-market time product to supplement our existing payroll functionality. And across a few of our platforms, including Workforce Now and Roll, we intend to deploy Gen AI-powered features to help our clients more quickly and easily tackle certain HR transactions.

我們計劃先在歐洲兩個國家推出服務，並以此為基礎拓展業務範圍。同時，我們計劃繼續發展亞太業務，部分原因是利用我們近期收購的一款強大的中端市場時間管理產品來補充我們現有的薪資管理功能。此外，我們也計劃在包括 Workforce Now 和 Roll 在內的多個平台上部署 Gen AI 驅動的功能，以協助客戶更快速、更輕鬆地處理某些人力資源事務。

Our second strategic priority is to provide unmatched expertise and outsourcing to our clients. We pride ourselves on serving as a true partner to each and every one of our 1 million clients. Our culture of client service applies equally across our entire business, from a basic payroll client to a fully outsourced client where we run part or all of the HR department. Our expertise and partnership approach has been key to ADP's winning formula for decades, and we will continue to lean into it. We expect that to manifest in a few ways in fiscal 2024.

我們的第二個策略重點是為客戶提供無與倫比的專業知識和外包服務。我們為能夠成為每位客戶的真正合作夥伴而感到自豪，我們擁有100萬客戶。我們以客戶為中心的服務理念貫穿我們整個業務，從基本的薪資管理客戶到我們負責部分或全部人力資源部門的全面外包客戶，我們都秉持著這一理念。幾十年來，我們的專業知識和合作模式一直是ADP成功的關鍵，我們將繼續深耕這個領域。我們預計，在2024財年，這些優勢將體現在以下幾個方面。

We have recently been piloting a number of tools powered by Gen AI that can help our service and implementation associates deliver an even better client experience, and we will begin deploying these more broadly in early fiscal 2024. Given the significant number of clients we onboard and interact with every year, we expect to learn quite a bit this year about the longer-term benefits we and our clients might realize from Gen AI.

我們最近一直在試用一些由 Gen AI 提供支援的工具，這些工具可以幫助我們的服務和實施人員為客戶提供更優質的體驗，我們將在 2024 財年初開始更廣泛地部署這些工具。鑑於我們每年都會接納和互動大量的客戶，我們預計今年將對我們和我們的客戶可能從 Gen AI 中獲得的長期收益有相當多的了解。

Meanwhile, demand for our HR outsourcing solutions remains very strong. And in fiscal 2024, we are focused on reaching new clients and further improving the experience for existing ones. Our Employer Services HRO businesses have been performing incredibly well, and our focus for fiscal 2024 is to continue delivering strong bookings and keep client satisfaction and retention at current levels, or perhaps even reach new record levels. And our focus for our PEO business in fiscal 2024 is to maintain our recent strong bookings momentum by continuing to add to our sales force headcount, grow our referral partner network, and use data and machine learning to identify existing ADP clients who may be a strong fit for an upgrade.

同時，市場對我們人力資源外包解決方案的需求依然強勁。在2024財年，我們將專注於拓展新客戶，並進一步提升現有客戶的體驗。我們的雇主服務人力資源外包業務表現卓越，2024財年的目標是繼續保持強勁的訂單量，並將客戶滿意度和留存率維持在現有水平，甚至力爭再創新高。而對於我們的專業雇主組織（PEO）業務，2024財年的目標是透過持續擴充銷售團隊、拓展推薦合作夥伴網絡，並利用數據和機器學習技術識別可能適合升級的現有ADP客戶，從而保持近期強勁的訂單增長勢頭。

Our third and final strategic priority is to leverage our global scale for the benefit of our clients. Our size and scale are unmatched in the industry. Across the globe, we not only offer robust platforms and a commitment to industry-leading service and expertise, but we also provide a scaled ecosystem and a unique on-the-ground presence in over 30 countries. This combination positions us to interact routinely with local governments and tax authorities, meet stringent certification and data requirements, and stay on top of complex and shifting legal requirements.

我們的第三項也是最後一項策略重點是利用我們的全球規模優勢為客戶創造價值。我們在業界擁有無可比擬的規模和實力。我們不僅在全球範圍內提供強大的平台和行業領先的服務與專業知識，還在30多個國家/地區構建了規模化的生態系統和獨特的本地化服務網絡。這種組合使我們能夠與地方政府和稅務機關保持日常溝通，滿足嚴格的認證和資料要求，並始終掌握複雜多變的法律法規動態。

Globally, we bring together our incredible data an array of partners and integrated solutions in one of the biggest and best business-to-business sales forces in the world to help our clients and prospects navigate the changing world of work. In fiscal 2024, we will continue to build on that scale for the benefit of our clients. Our GlobalView platform supports hundreds of the world's largest multinational companies with scaled workforces in over 40 countries, and our Celergo platform helps us serve thousands more in up to 140 countries.

在全球範圍內，我們匯集了大量數據、眾多合作夥伴和整合解決方案，打造了全球規模最大、實力最強的企業對企業銷售團隊之一，助力客戶和潛在客戶應對瞬息萬變的工作環境。在2024財年，我們將持續擴大規模，更好地服務客戶。我們的GlobalView平台為數百家全球最大的跨國公司提供支持，這些公司在40多個國家擁有龐大的員工隊伍；而我們的Celergo平台則幫助我們服務多達140個國家的數千家企業。

In fiscal 2024, we expect to expand on both as we add additional countries to GlobalView's broad reach and as we potentially make tuck-in acquisitions to enhance our native in-country footprint. After establishing an ADP in-country presence in 5 new markets in 2023, we expect to expand further in fiscal 2024. Our world-class global scale distribution, led by over 8,500 sellers is being supported by headcount and marketing investment in 2024, and as we've shared with you in the past few quarters, our sellers will continue to be paired with a best-in-class sales tech stack, which we plan to enhance with Gen AI functionality in the coming months. And our ability to provide data-driven insights will continue to grow in fiscal 2024.

在2024財年，我們預計將在兩方面都取得進展：一方面，我們將拓展GlobalView的業務範圍，涵蓋更多國家；另一方面，我們可能還會進行一些補充收購，以增強我們在當地市場的佈局。繼2023年在5個新市場建立ADP本地業務後，我們預計將在2024財年進一步擴張。我們擁有世界一流的全球規模分銷網絡，由超過8,500名銷售人員組成，2024年我們將加大人員配備和行銷投入，以支持此網絡的發展。正如我們在過去幾個季度與您分享的那樣，我們的銷售人員將繼續使用一流的銷售技術堆疊，我們計劃在未來幾個月內透過Gen AI功能進行增強。此外，我們在2024財年提供數據驅動型洞察的能力也將持續提升。

ADP serves more clients and pay more people around the world than ever. And as we continue growing the number of employees we serve globally, the power of our insights will likewise continue to increase and benefit our clients. I am incredibly excited about these 3 strategic priorities for ADP, and the differentiation and growth they will continue to drive.

ADP 服務的客戶數量和支付的員工人數都比以往任何時候都多。隨著我們全球服務員工數量的持續成長，我們的洞察力也將不斷增強，從而惠及我們的客戶。我對 ADP 的這三大策略重點以及它們將持續推動的差異化發展和成長感到無比振奮。

But before turning it over to Don, I wanted to take a moment to recognize our associates for their effort and performance over the course of this year. Our associates embody our core values like insightful expertise, service excellence and being results driven. In fiscal 2023, ADP was recognized as the world's most admired company by Fortune Magazine for the 17th consecutive year, signifying the incredibly strong culture we have and the important role we play in the world.

但在把發言權交給唐之前，我想藉此機會感謝我們全體員工在過去一年中的努力和出色表現。我們的員工體現了我們的核心價值觀，例如精湛的專業技能、卓越的服務和以結果為導向的工作方式。在2023財年，ADP連續第17年被《財星》雜誌評為全球最受尊敬的公司，這充分體現了我們強大的企業文化以及我們在世界舞台上扮演的重要角色。

Additionally, we were recently recognized for the first time as one of the best companies for innovators by Fast Company, a true testament to the direction we are headed in. We owe these accolades as well as our strong, consistent financial performance to the commitment and effort of our 63,000 associates that make up the ADP family.

此外，我們最近首次被《快公司》雜誌評為最具創新精神的公司之一，這充分證明了我們發展的方向是正確的。這些榮譽以及我們強勁且持續的財務業績，都歸功於我們63,000名員工的奉獻和努力，他們組成了ADP大家庭。

With that, I'll turn it over to Don.

接下來，我將把麥克風交給唐。

Thank you, Maria, and good morning, everyone. I'll start by expanding on Maria's comments around our Q4 results and then cover our fiscal 2024 financial outlook. Q4 performance was very strong overall, driving fiscal '23 results at or above our expectations. As Maria mentioned, these results reflected broad-based strength in Employer Services and PEO new business bookings, better-than-anticipated Employer Services retention and continued healthy Employer Services pays per control growth yielding 10% organic constant currency revenue growth for the year, and bringing us to $18 billion in revenue.

謝謝瑪麗亞，大家早安。首先，我將補充瑪麗亞對我們第四季業績的評論，然後介紹我們2024財年的財務展望。第四季整體表現非常強勁，推動2023財年業績達到或超過預期。正如瑪麗亞所提到的，這些業績反映了雇主服務和PEO新業務預訂的全面強勁增長、雇主服務客戶留存率超出預期以及雇主服務按人均支付費用的持續健康增長，最終實現了全年10%的有機固定匯率收入增長，使我們的總收入達到180億美元。

For our Employer Services segment, revenue in the quarter increased 11% on both the reported and organic constant currency basis. This stronger-than-expected revenue growth was a function of continued outperformance in retention and pays per control growth as well as a better than anticipated contribution from client funds interest. Our ES margin expanded 480 basis points in the fourth quarter, which was broadly in line with our expectations.

就我們的雇主服務業務部門而言，本季營收按報告匯率和有機成長匯率計算均成長了11%。這一超出預期的收入成長主要得益於客戶留存率和每位控制人薪酬的持續優異增長，以及客戶資金利息貢獻超出預期。第四季度，我們的雇主服務利潤率提升了480個基點，基本上符合預期。

For the full year, our ES revenue grew 10% on a reported basis and 11% on an organic constant currency basis, and our ES margin expanded 190 basis points. Growth in client funds interest helped us in a year in which we added a fair amount to our product, service and sales headcount, which has driven some fairly substantial benefits in sales, Net Promoter Score and retention results.

全年來看，我們的ES營收按報告基準成長10%，以有機成長（以固定匯率計算）成長11%，ES利潤率提升190個基點。客戶資金投入的成長助力我們度過了這一年，同時我們也大幅增加了產品、服務和銷售人員，從而在銷售額、淨推薦值和客戶留存率方面取得了顯著成效。

For our PEO, revenue increased 4% for the quarter, decelerating slightly from Q3 as we anticipated. Average worksite employees increased 3% on a year-over-year basis to 722,000 and has started to gradually reaccelerate supported by very strong bookings growth in Q4. PEO margin contracted 110 basis points in the fourth quarter, in line with our expectations due in part to higher selling expenses. For the full year, our PEO revenue grew 8% and average worksite employees increased 6% and our margin expanded 60 basis points, all in line with our most recent guidance.

本季度，我們的專業雇主組織 (PEO) 業務收入成長 4%，與第三季度相比增速略有放緩，正如我們預期。平均每個工作場所的員工人數年增 3% 至 72.2 萬人，並在第四季度強勁的訂單成長支撐下開始逐步回升。第四季 PEO 業務利潤率下降 110 個基點，符合我們的預期，部分原因是銷售費用增加。全年來看，我們的 PEO 業務收入成長 8%，平均每個工作場所的員工人數成長 6%，利潤率提升 60 個基點，均與我們最新的業績指引相符。

I'll now turn to our outlook for fiscal '24. While the economic backdrop remains uncertain, we continue to believe we are well positioned to deliver solid overall financial results while also investing for future growth, consistent with the strategic priorities that Maria laid out. Our fiscal '24 outlook assumes some moderation in economic activity over the course of the year, but nothing dramatic.

接下來，我將談談我們對2024財年的展望。儘管經濟情勢依然不明朗，但我們仍然相信，我們有能力在實現穩健的整體財務表現的同時，按照瑪莉亞制定的戰略重點，為未來的成長進行投資。我們對2024財年的展望是基於經濟活動在年內將有所放緩，但不會出現劇烈波動的假設。

Beginning with ES segment revenue, we expect growth of 7% to 8%, driven by the following key assumptions. We expect ES new business bookings growth of 4% to 7%, representing a solid growth after a particularly strong fiscal '23. For now, we're assuming a stronger first half and some moderation in second half bookings growth, which we think is prudent given the limited visibility into the macro environment.

首先來看ES業務部門的收入，我們預期成長7%至8%，主要基於以下幾個假設。我們預期ES業務部門的新業務訂單量將成長4%至7%，在經歷了2023財年的強勁成長後，這一成長動能依然穩健。目前，我們假設上半年訂單量成長更為強勁，下半年成長放緩，考慮到宏觀經濟環境的不確定性，我們認為這樣的預期較為謹慎。

For ES retention, we finished fiscal '23 at a record level of 92.2%, consistently outperforming our expectations throughout the year. We are, of course, very pleased with this performance as we overcame headwinds from higher down market out of business levels with strength elsewhere. With that said, we are contemplating a 50 to 70 basis points ES retention decline for fiscal '24 due in part to an assumption that small business losses will increase slightly from where they are today as well as an assumption for general impact to our other businesses from a slowing economic backdrop.

在員工留存率方面，我們2023財年以創紀錄的92.2%收官，全年表現都超乎預期。當然，我們對這項業績非常滿意，因為我們憑藉其他業務的強勁表現克服了市場低迷導致的大量企業倒閉帶來的不利影響。儘管如此，我們預計2024財年員工留存率將下降50至70個基點，部分原因是我們假設小型企業虧損將略有增加，以及經濟放緩將對我們的其他業務產生普遍影響。

As we called out 3 months ago, we see the potential for below normal pays per control growth in fiscal '24, and our outlook assumes 1% to 2% growth for the year. We had a strong Q4, which gives us a solid starting point for growth and a gradual deceleration over the course of the year feels reasonable at this time. And after price contributed 150 basis points to our ES revenue growth in fiscal '23, we are anticipating a smaller contribution in fiscal '24, though still above our recent historical average contribution of around 50 basis points.

正如我們三個月前所指出的，我們預計2024財年每股收益成長可能會低於正常水平，我們預計全年成長率為1%至2%。第四季業績強勁，為成長奠定了堅實的基礎，因此，我們認為全年成長逐步放緩是合理的。 2023財年股價對員工持股營收成長貢獻了150個基點，我們預期2024財年股價貢獻將有所下降，但仍高於近期約50個基點的歷史平均水準。

And for client funds interest revenue, the interest rate backdrop has been dynamic these past few months, and it is important to keep in mind that our client funds interest revenue forecast reflects the current forward yield curve, which will, of course, evolve as we move through fiscal '24. At this point, we expect our average yield to increase from 2.4% in fiscal '23 to 2.8% in fiscal '24. We meanwhile expect our average client funds balances to grow 2% to 3% in fiscal '24. This is a bit lower than recent trends due primarily to more modest contribution from pays per control growth and an assumption for more moderate wage increases. Putting those together, we expect our client funds interest revenue to increase from $813 million in fiscal '23 to a range of $955 million to $975 million in fiscal '24.

至於客戶資金利息收入，過去幾個月利率環境變化多端，需要注意的是，我們對客戶資金利息收入的預測反映的是當前的遠期收益率曲線，而該曲線當然會隨著2024財年的推進而不斷變化。目前，我們預期平均殖利率將從2023財年的2.4%上升至2024財年的2.8%。同時，我們預計2024財年客戶資金平均餘額將成長2%至3%。這一增速略低於近期趨勢，主要原因是每股收益成長貢獻較小，以及我們假設薪資成長較為溫和。綜合以上因素，我們預期客戶資金利息收入將從2023財年的8.13億美元增加至2024財年的9.55億美元至9.75億美元。

Meanwhile, we expect the net impact from our client fund strategy to increase from $730 million in fiscal '23 to a range of $815 to $835 million in fiscal '24. For our ES margin, we expect an increase of 130 to 150 basis points driven by operating leverage and contribution from client funds interest revenue, offset by continued investments across our strategic priorities.

同時，我們預期客戶基金策略的淨影響將從2023財年的7.3億美元增至2024財年的8.15億至8.35億美元。對於我們的員工持股比例，我們預期在營運槓桿和客戶基金利息收入貢獻的推動下，將成長130至150個基點，但會被我們在各項策略重點領域持續的投資所抵銷。

Moving on to the PEO segment. We expect PEO revenue and PEO revenue excluding zero margin pass-through to grow 3% to 5% in fiscal '24. The primary driver for our PEO revenue growth is our outlook for average worksite employee growth of 3% to 4%. This represents a gradual reacceleration from the 3% growth we're stepping off of in Q4. Strong bookings performance has already contributed to accelerating client growth, but that has so far been offset by slowing pays per control growth.

接下來談談PEO業務。我們預計2024財年PEO營收以及不計零利潤轉嫁的PEO營收將成長3%至5%。推動PEO收入成長的主要因素是我們對平均工作場所員工人數增加3%至4%的預期。這標誌著我們在第四季放緩3%的成長速度後，正在逐步加速。強勁的預訂量已經促進了客戶成長，但迄今為止，這種成長已被每項控制費用成長放緩所抵消。

With continued strong bookings growth, our worksite employee growth should gradually reaccelerate as well. And as Maria shared, demand has been healthy, and we remain confident in the long-term growth opportunity in PEO. We expect PEO margin to be down between 20 and 40 basis points in fiscal '24 due to anticipated higher selling expenses as well as year-over-year headwind from a lower workers' compensation reserve release benefit than we experienced in fiscal '23.

隨著訂單量持續強勁成長，我們的現場員工成長也將逐步加速。正如瑪麗亞所說，市場需求一直保持健康，我們對專業雇主組織 (PEO) 的長期成長前景仍然充滿信心。我們預計，由於預計銷售費用將增加，以及與 2023 財年相比，2024 財年工傷賠償準備金釋放收益較低，PEO 利潤率將下降 20 至 40 個基點。

Adding it all up, our consolidated revenue outlook is for 6% to 7% growth in fiscal '24. And our adjusted EBIT margin outlook is for expansion of 60 to 80 basis points. We expect our effective tax rate for fiscal '24 to be around 23%. And we expect adjusted EPS growth of 10% to 12%, supported by buybacks. One quick note on cadence. At this point, we expect total revenue growth to be relatively consistent quarter-to-quarter, but we expect our adjusted EBIT margin to be down slightly in Q1 on a year-over-year basis and then build over the course of the year.

綜合來看，我們預計2024財年合併營收將成長6%至7%。調整後息稅前利潤率預計將提升60至80個基點。我們預計2024財年實際稅率約為23%。在股票回購的支持下，我們預期調整後每股盈餘將成長10%至12%。關於成長節奏，需要特別說明一點。目前，我們預計總營收成長將保持相對穩定的季度環比，但預計第一季調整後息稅前利潤率將比去年同期略有下降，隨後將在年內逐步回升。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it back to the operator for Q&A.

謝謝，現在我將把問題交還給接線員進行問答。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的拉姆齊·埃爾-阿薩爾。

This is Owen on for Ramsey. I appreciate you taking our question today. I was just curious more on kind of your PEO revenue guidance. I know you called out worksite employee growth weighing on growth there. But you expect double-digit kind of bookings growth and projects only 3% to 5% growth in PEO revenues for fiscal '24. I was just curious if you can provide any more color on that spread, is it's any conservatism or if there are any other factors to consider there?

這裡是歐文，代表拉姆齊。感謝您今天回答我們的問題。我比較想了解您對PEO收入的預期。我知道您提到工作場所員工成長會拖累收入成長。但您預計訂單量將達到兩位數成長，而2024財年PEO營收僅成長3%至5%。我想請您進一步解釋這個預期範圍，是出於保守考慮，還是有其他需要考慮的因素？

Owen, thanks. Yes, I'll answer the question. We had a very, very strong sales bookings result in Q4. So we're very happy with that, and we've seen the sales reaccelerate. I think as we said in the prepared comments, we are seeing continued growth in clients. I think if there's a challenge that we're facing a little bit is we're seeing a little bit softer pays per control growth in the PEO than we would have expected. But back to what we've been saying for some time, we think the underlying value proposition is very, very strong, and we look to that business continue to grow for us and be a big part of our portfolio.

歐文，謝謝。好的，我會回答這個問題。我們第四季的銷售業績非常強勁，我們對此非常滿意，而且銷售額已經重新加速成長。正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，客戶數量持續成長。我認為我們目前面臨的挑戰之一是，PEO（專業雇主組織）的按控制付費成長速度略低於預期。但正如我們之前一直強調的，我們認為其核心價值主張非常強大，我們期待這項業務繼續成長，並成為我們投資組合的重要組成部分。

Our next question comes from Samad Samana with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的薩馬德·薩馬納。

Congrats on the strong end to the fiscal year. Maybe first question, Maria, I thought it was very interesting about the announcement of moving Roll into new international markets. How should we think about maybe what the opportunity there looks like? How much different is the complexity around payroll processing in international markets versus the U.S.? And have you included that in the bookings forecast for fiscal '24?

祝賀貴公司本財年圓滿收官。瑪莉亞，我想先問一個問題：貴公司宣布將業務拓展至新的國際市場，我覺得這很有趣。我們該如何看待這些市場帶來的機會？國際市場的薪資處理流程與美國市場相比，複雜度有多大差異？貴公司是否已將這部分業務納入2024財年的訂單預測？

Yes. Fair enough. Thanks, Samad. And I appreciate the congratulations on the quarter and the year. We're obviously pretty proud over here. So with respect to Roll, it is exciting. It's been an exciting product for us to roll out, no pun intended across the down market here in the U.S. We're excited to take it into international. As mentioned, the initial goal is to put it into 2 countries, and it is an incremental add for us because it's really initially into these 2 countries. We're thinking more kind of the down-market SMB space, which is an area of opportunity for us across many of the markets that we serve. But we're also excited about Roll long term beyond that space. And so excited to dip it into our international space as we have continued the overall rollout of Roll.

是的，沒問題。謝謝，薩馬德。感謝你對本季和年度業績的祝賀。我們當然也為此感到非常自豪。說到Roll，這確實令人興奮。在美國這個低階市場推出Roll產品對我們來說意義非凡，我們對此感到非常興奮。我們很高興能將它推向國際市場。如同先前所提到的，最初的目標是在兩個國家/地區推廣，這對我們來說是一個漸進式的成長，因為它最初只在這兩個國家推出。我們更關注的是低端市場的中小企業市場，這在我們服務的許多市場中都是一個充滿機會的領域。但我們也對Roll的長期發展前景充滿信心，並期待它能超越這個領域，進入我們的國際市場。我們一直持續推進Roll的整體推廣，現在也非常高興能將它引入我們的國際市場。

In terms of factoring it into the overall bookings, not really. I think the -- by the time the launch happens and as we're thinking about the full year for our international business or full year for new business bookings, I'd be surprised if it ultimately makes a dent. But to us, it's really about the long-term value that, that offer will bring as we seek to expand the addressable market for us into these various places.

就將其納入整體預訂量而言，實際上影響不大。我認為，等到正式上線，當我們展望全年國際業務或新業務預訂量時，它最終能產生多大影響，我都會感到驚訝。但對我們而言，真正重要的是這項服務帶來的長期價值，它能幫助我們拓展在各地區的市場。

Last but not least, Samad, you mentioned the complexity of being international. And I have to tell you, I spoke to it a little bit in the prepared remarks. There's a lot that goes into being in each one of these countries. To your point, there's complexity country by country. Many countries put many of the states that are complex, here in the U.S. to shame in terms of the complexity that provides. And that's everything from government entities, legal tax attorneys, who is the tax authority and how do you get to them. We often think of it as an ecosystem. We think about it as kind of that final mile, if you will, and that's the complexity, and that's what we've been building over the last couple of decades in our international business.

最後，薩馬德，你提到了國際業務的複雜性。我必須告訴你，我在準備的發言稿中也略有提及。在每個國家開展業務都涉及許多方面。正如你所說，每個國家的複雜性各不相同。許多國家的複雜性甚至讓美國一些州都相形見絀。這涵蓋了從政府機構、稅務律師到稅務機關是誰以及如何聯繫他們等方方面面。我們常常把它看成一個生態系統。我們把它看作是“最後一公里”，也就是複雜性所在，而這正是我們在過去二十年國際業務中一直在建構的。

So it's a lot more than dropping off software at a country border and hoping that it works. There's a lot to be said for the ecosystem around it, again, whether it's tax authorities, state lodgements, things of that nature. So excited to take advantage of the footprint we've built and put in our products into that footprint as we expand Roll internationally.

所以，這遠不止是把軟體送到某個國家的邊境然後祈禱它能正常運作那麼簡單。圍繞它的生態系統也至關重要，例如稅務機關、國家申報系統等等。我們非常興奮能夠利用我們已經建立的資源，並將我們的產品融入其中，從而拓展 Roll 的國際業務。

Very helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up for Don. I know you gave -- you called out that broad base strength that drove the bookings upside and you cited several specific factors. I guess it would be helpful if you could maybe help us dimensionalize where the upside was relative to the company's own expectations at maybe the start of fiscal '23? And what you're carrying forward from what you saw in the fourth quarter into the FY '24 bookings outlook?

非常有幫助。接下來我想問唐一個問題。我知道您提到了推動預訂量成長的強勁基礎，並列舉了一些具體因素。我想，如果您能幫我們分析一下，在2023財年初期，預訂量增長相對於公司自身預期而言究竟有多大幅度，那就太好了。另外，您認為第四季的哪些數據會影響2024財年的預訂量展望？

Yes, Samad, thanks for the question. I'll start here, and I think I'll turn it over to Maria for the bookings. But we certainly saw a strength across the board. I think once again, in the prepared remarks, we called out the -- our tax business and our international business. So they were very strong amongst all the ones that were strong and the down market was also quite strong. So it was really a contribution from across the board in the fourth quarter.

是的，薩馬德，謝謝你的提問。我先從這裡開始，接下來我想把預訂部分交給瑪麗亞。但我們確實看到各個業務板塊都表現強勁。我想，在事先準備好的演講稿中，我們再次專注於提到了稅務業務和國際業務。在所有表現強勁的業務板塊中，它們都非常出色，而且在市場低迷時期，它們的表現也相當強勁。所以，第四季業績的提升確實是各個業務板塊共同努力的成果。

We talked for some time about how the pipelines are healthy and whatnot, and you've had questions before about times to get signatures on deals, et cetera. Things came together in the fourth quarter, and we were very, very pleased with the final result.

我們花了不少時間討論專案進度等等，你之前也問過一些關於簽署協議所需時間之類的問題。第四季一切都進展順利，我們對最終結果非常滿意。

That's right. I -- my only add to that comment would be, we stepped into the quarter with healthy pipelines with a strong staffing position that was growing tenure. I have to tell you, when I reflect on all the quarters that I've watched across our sales execution, generally speaking, you have a bunch of businesses that are outperforming and you have a few businesses that are perhaps being carried by those that are outperforming. What I have to tell you is this was a broad-based strength across the entire organization sales implementation service, with kind of an all hands on deck execution, and that's really what it's all about. What I would attribute it to is incredible execution.

沒錯。我——我唯一要補充的是，我們帶著健康的銷售管道和強大的員工隊伍進入了本季度，而且員工的任期也在不斷增長。我必須說，回顧我觀察過的所有季度的銷售執行情況，總的來說，很多業務部門都表現出色，而少數業務部門可能只是依靠這些表現出色的部門帶動。我必須說的是，這次的成功是整個公司銷售實施服務部門的全面優勢，是全員齊心協力執行的結果，這才是關鍵所在。我認為這要歸功於我們卓越的執行力。

Our next question comes from Bryan Bergin with TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 公司的 Bryan Bergin。

I wanted to follow up on E.S. bookings here. So you cited several areas of strength, mid-market, compliance and international. On the mid-market specifically, can you talk about what's driving that better-than-expected performance? Do you think that's driving improved competitive performance versus kind of rising tide environment? And then just I heard you comment on Next Gen HCM contributing more in the current fiscal year to bookings. Maybe talk about the initiatives and the product development that you think is going to drive that?

我想就E.S.的訂單量再問幾句。您提到了幾個優勢領域，包括中端市場、合規和國際市場。具體到中端市場，您能否談談是什麼因素推動了超乎預期的業績？您認為這是否是推動競爭優勢增強的原因，還是市場環境整體上漲的因素？另外，我剛剛聽到您提到下一代HCM在本財年對訂單量的貢獻更大。您能否談談您認為哪些舉措和產品開發將推動這一成長？

Bryan, so I'll comment on both. The mid-market strength that we've seen and it is coming in a bit better than expected. It's been solid for quite some time. That's inclusive of our HRO offerings, and as you know, we've been speaking to those quite a bit in terms of the resonance of that value proposition in the market. So I think that adds to the overall strength that we have in the mid-market, which is the various flavors and offers that we have.

布萊恩，那我就兩方面都談談我的看法。我們看到中端市場表現強勁，而且比預期好一些。這種強勁勢頭已經持續了相當長一段時間。這其中也包括我們的人力資源外包（HRO）服務，如你所知，我們一直在與客戶溝通，探討這種價值主張在市場上的迴響。所以我認為這進一步增強了我們在中端市場的整體實力，這得益於我們提供的各種產品和服務。

I think the other is that we've made tremendous investments into that business. So we do have our Next Generation Payroll engine that the sales force is pretty excited about and we're seeing that in the wins that are coming in and just kind of the momentum there. I think the other is the amount of product investment and innovation that we've done in the mid-market, specifically referencing the investments we've made into the Workforce Now platform with the new UX and many of the things that I've been speaking to.

我認為另一個原因是，我們對這項業務進行了大量投資。我們擁有新一代薪資引擎，銷售團隊對此感到非常興奮，我們也從不斷取得的訂單和目前的成長勢頭中看到了這一點。我認為另一個原因是，我們在中端市場投入了大量的產品資金和創新，特別是我們對 Workforce Now 平台的投資，包括全新的使用者體驗以及我剛才提到的許多其他方面。

And I think the other call out is it definitely helps on a new business bookings perspective, when the business on the other side, so service and NPS, if you will, as well as retention are firing on all cylinders. And that's exactly the case. We have record retention in our mid-market, and we have near-record NPS results across the mid-market. So really, really proud of the execution in that entire space. And that definitely fuels and feeds the ability for our sellers to get excited about everything that I just mentioned to go to market.

我認為另一點值得一提的是，當業務端（例如服務和淨推薦值，以及客戶留存率）全面運作時，從新業務預訂的角度來看，這絕對大有裨益。而事實正是如此。我們在中階市場的客戶留存率創下歷史新高，淨推薦值也接近歷史最高水準。因此，我們對整個領域的執行力感到非常自豪。這無疑也激勵著我們的銷售人員對剛才提到的所有市場機會充滿熱情。

Stepping into the question around Next Gen HCM, I did make a reference to that. We've talked a lot over the last quarters about this year. And what we've been working on is scaling implementation, and that's exactly what we've done in that business. So we were able to onboard a lot of the clients that we had on our backlog. We've shortened the time of implementation, and we also saw additions to that backlog.

關於下一代人力資本管理（HCM）的問題，我確實提到了它。過去幾個季度，我們一直在討論今年的計劃。我們一直在努力擴大實施規模，而這正是我們在這個業務領域所做的。因此，我們能夠讓許多積壓的客戶順利上線。我們縮短了實施時間，同時也看到積壓的客戶數量增加。

So we saw new sales in the fourth quarter of that Next Generation HCM platform. We're really excited about the momentum as we step into '24. And as such, we believe that Next Gen HCM will be a larger contributor to bookings for us in the upcoming year than it was in '23, but we were pleased with what we saw in the fourth quarter and the momentum heading in.

因此，我們在第四季度看到了新一代HCM平台的新銷售額。我們對進入2024年的發展勢頭感到非常興奮。因此，我們相信新一代HCM在未來一年對我們的訂單貢獻將比2023年更大，但我們對第四季度的業績以及未來的發展勢頭感到滿意。

Okay. Understood. And then just on pricing, can you comment on where that ended up in fiscal '23 and what you're assuming in ES growth from a pricing standpoint in fiscal '24?

好的，明白了。那麼關於定價，您能否談談2023財年的最終定價情況，以及您對2024財年ES成長的定價預期？

Yes. So we were happy with our price increase and retention. So as we've talked to many times, we want to make sure that we're not getting greedy. So we did get about 150-basis points of price in the year. And we did that without the expense of seeing a decline in retention or NPS scores. And quite frankly, those NPS scores have stayed healthy despite the price increase. So as much as price increases can land well, they have landed well, and we're very happy with how that transpired throughout '23.

是的。我們對提價和客戶留存率都很滿意。正如我們多次強調的，我們希望確保不會貪得無厭。因此，我們今年漲價了大約150個基點。而且，我們並沒有因此導致客戶留存率或淨推薦值（NPS）下降。坦白說，儘管提價了，但NPS仍然保持良好水準。所以，漲價策略的效果很好，我們對2023年的發展非常滿意。

For '24, we do expect to have price increases again. We do not think that we're going to be in the 150 basis point range. We're certainly going to be above our historical average of about 50 basis points. But once again, we'll watch closely and make sure that the underlying value proposition for our clients stays in place, and we'll take some price for sure, but not to the extent that we did in FY '23.

2024年，我們預計價格會再次上漲。我們認為漲幅不會達到150個基點，但肯定會高於我們過去約50個基點的平均值。不過，我們會密切關注市場動態，確保顧客的基本價值主張不受影響。物價上漲在所難免，但不會像2023財年那麼劇烈。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的黃天進。

With the great bookings here, I'm just thinking around the conversion. You mentioned implementation cycles. I'm just curious if you've seen any change from clients and their desire to implement. And then similarly, just maybe based on your comments there on Next Gen HCM, I'd love to hear a little bit more around the appetite from your prospects to upgrade now at this point in the cycle. What's the pitch here given some of the macro uncertainty?

鑑於目前的預訂情況良好，我正在考慮如何提高轉換率。您提到了實施週期。我很好奇您是否觀察到客戶在實施意願上有任何變化。同樣地，基於您先前對下一代人力資本管理 (Next Gen HCM) 的評論，我很想了解您的潛在客戶在當前階段的升級意願。考慮到宏觀經濟的不確定性，您是如何進行推廣的？

So I think both of your questions, I just want to confirm, I'm hearing them the right way. I think they both kind of speak to the general sentiment around the demand environment. Is that kind of a good way to think about it?

所以，我想確認一下，你們的兩個問題，我理解得對不對。我覺得它們都反映了當前需求環境的整體狀況。這樣理解對嗎？

Yes.

是的。

In terms of decisions getting delayed and/or what's the appetite to, I suppose, by HCM in the current macro environment. And so I'll comment on the general demand environment and feel free to follow-up with an additional question if I didn't cover what you wanted. But the way that I think about demand, and I've spoken to it quite a bit over the last couple of quarters. Demand remains strong, and that is very broad-based across the business. And so if you think about the down market, you still have the strength of small business formations. You have the strength of hiring that's happening in the down market. And as such you have clients there needing to make decisions around our HCM offers in that space, right?

就決策延遲和/或當前宏觀環境下對人力資本管理（HCM）的需求而言，我想談談整體需求環境。如果您還有其他問題，歡迎隨時提問。就我個人對需求的看法而言（過去幾季我也曾多次談到），需求依然強勁，而且這種需求在整個業務範圍內都非常普遍。即使在市場低迷時期，小型企業的成立依然強勁，招募活動也依然活躍。因此，客戶需要就我們針對該領域提供的HCM解決方案做出決策，對嗎？

So that's definitely a place that we've been winning, and we'll continue to lean in as warranted by the demand. The mid-market, as we talked about that a little bit earlier in terms of the overall demand there for the complexity that exists in that market. That's inclusive again of the solution we have around our HR outsourcing offerings. And so that's kind of the mid-market.

所以，這絕對是我們一直佔優勢的領域，我們也會根據市場需求繼續加大投入。正如我們之前提到的，中端市場整體需求旺盛，因為該市場本身就比較複雜。這其中也包括我們提供的人力資源外包解決方案。所以，這就是我們所說的中端市場。

So getting to your question, which is really about the enterprise space and perhaps even the MNC space, it is an area that we continue to watch as it relates to demand cycles, decision delays. And the main reason is those are really the places that you -- as you're aware, have additional, perhaps signers, additional levels of approval, things of that nature. And what I would say, which is consistent with what we've been seeing, is that we are back to pre-pandemic levels. So deal cycles did shorten during the pandemic, and they elongated back to pre-pandemic. But it isn't something that we're seeing additional elongation beyond historical averages.

回到您的問題，這實際上與企業領域，甚至可能包括跨國公司領域有關。我們一直在關注這一領域，因為它與需求週期和決策延遲密切相關。主要原因是，如您所知，這些領域通常涉及更多簽署人、更多審批環節等等。我想說的是，正如我們觀察到的，目前已經恢復到疫情前的水準。疫情期間交易週期確實縮短了，之後又恢復到疫情前的水準。但我們並沒有看到交易週期出現超出歷史平均值的進一步延長。

And so to your point, though, it is an area that we consistently watch both in the enterprise space as well as in our international business, just to kind of see if the demand cycle is at the client's appetite to make buying decisions or implementation decisions during this time has changed thus far. We're not seeing it in a broad-based way. But it is an area that we continue to monitor.

正因如此，無論是在企業領域還是國際業務中，我們都會持續關注這一領域，觀察客戶的需求週期是否發生了變化，以及他們在此期間做出購買決策或實施決策的意願是否發生了改變。目前我們尚未看到普遍的變化，但這確實是我們會持續關注的領域。

Okay. No, that's great. You answered it better than I asked the question. Just on the -- as a quick follow-up, just I heard a lot about the sales and the go-to-market investments that makes sense. Just how about R&D growth here in the upcoming year versus fiscal '23? How might growth be different? And also, how might the composition be different in terms of where you're placing your bets on R&D. That's all I had.

好的。太好了。你的回答比我問的還要好。我還有一個後續問題，我聽說了很多關於銷售和市場推廣投資的內容，這很合理。那麼，與2023財年相比，下一財年的研發成長情況如何？成長會有哪些不同？另外，研發投入的重點領域也會有哪些改變？我的問題就這些。

Yes. I think we have a number of projects that we've shared with you all over the past number of quarters. Those projects are well underway. We won't spend a lot of time talking about specific Gen AI product -- projects, but I guess that would be a place that would anticipate, I'll get a question -- we'll get a question for that later on in this call, given it's so topical.

是的。過去幾個季度，我們已經和大家分享過一些項目。這些項目進展順利。我們不會花太多時間討論具體的Gen AI產品項目，但我想，鑑於這個話題很熱門，稍後肯定會有人問到。

But generally, we're continuing our direction with the investments that we've described over the past number of quarters, and we continue to make good progress. We continue to have good delivery. The ability to take Roll to markets in Europe is an example of that, how investments in that development and that technology has increased. And by the way, that's part of our broader strategy that we've touched on many times, is to take some of these developments and make sure that they're global in nature as opposed to only local in nature. So nothing incredibly new, just a continuation of the great work and the great projects we have underway.

但總的來說，我們將繼續推進過去幾季以來我們所描述的投資方向，並持續取得良好進展。我們始終保持著良好的交付能力。將Roll產品推向歐洲市場就是一個例證，這反映了我們對該項研發和技術投入的不斷增加。順便一提，這也是我們多次提及的更廣泛策略的一部分，確保這些研發成果具有全球性，而不僅僅是局限於本地。所以，沒有什麼特別新鮮的內容，只是我們正在進行的出色工作和專案的延續。

Our next question comes from Mark Marcon with Baird.

我們的下一個問題來自 Baird 公司的 Mark Marcon。

Let me add my congratulations, particularly on the strong new bookings. Maria, you went through your 3 key strategic initiatives and all the subsections, of the various initiatives, which ones are going to be the most impactful do you think from a near-term perspective? And then one specific question. Within the mid-market, you mentioned not only deploying Next Gen payroll, but you also talked about the time engine. And I was wondering if you could elaborate a little bit on that.

讓我向你們表示祝賀，特別是新訂單的強勁成長。瑪莉亞，你詳細介紹了三大策略舉措及其各個子項，從短期來看，你認為哪些措施的影響最大？還有一個具體問題。在中端市場方面，你不僅提到了部署新一代薪資系統，還談到了時間引擎。我想請你詳細解釋一下。

Sure. And thank you, Mark. I appreciate the congratulations. So I am very excited about the strategic priorities as I outlined during the prepared remarks. I don't know that I was necessarily expecting to have to pick a favorite pillar or a -- one that I expect to yield impact faster than another because I think broadly speaking, they apply across all of ADP, and they will depend a bit as it relates to kind of each business, right?

當然。謝謝你，馬克。感謝你的祝賀。我非常高興能與大家分享我在準備演講稿中提到的策略重點。我並不認為我需要選出一個最喜歡的支柱，或者說哪個支柱預計會比其他支柱更快產生影響，因為我認為總體而言，這些戰略重點適用於ADP的所有業務，當然，它們也會根據各個業務的具體情況而有所不同，對吧？

And so when I think about some of the product investments that we're making, some of the things, the work that we've done and the impact, whether it's taking a product like Roll internationally, which I mentioned earlier, won't be in a short-term results, but some of the impact of continuing to build on the momentum we have in the mid-market with our Next Generation Payroll engine, as an example, where we have an ability to win differently, we see competitive advantages and differentiation there. I think that's an area that can have tremendous impact in short order.

所以，當我思考我們正在進行的一些產品投資、我們已經完成的工作以及它們的影響時，例如將像Roll這樣的產品推向國際市場（我之前提到過），這不會在短期內見效，但繼續鞏固我們在中端市場的發展勢頭，例如我們的下一代薪資引擎，其影響將會顯現。在這個領域，我們擁有獨特的勝利之道，我們看到了競爭優勢和差異化優勢。我認為這一領域能夠在短期內產生巨大的影響。

I think the other is, Don did it first, which is he mentioned the likes of generative AI. And when I think about that, the Gen AI and applying it broadly across these pillars, I think there is opportunity for us in product that's pretty tremendous, whether it's solving real opportunities for our clients to become more efficient. We've talked a lot about that, whether that's things like job descriptions, performance reviews, things of that nature.

我認為另一個原因是，唐恩率先提出了生成式人工智慧之類的概念。當我想到生成式人工智慧並將其廣泛應用於這些領域時，我認為我們在產品方面擁有巨大的機會，無論是幫助客戶解決實際問題，提高效率。我們已經就此進行了許多討論，例如職位說明、績效評估等等。

But it also leads me kind of to that second pillar to your point around what will come short term versus long term. I think there's opportunity in the short term that will make impact as well as the long term in terms of really applying generative AI across our expertise that we provide to our clients. And so when I think about our ability to make it easier for our clients to engage with us or our associates to engage with our clients, some of the tools that we have already deployed across various businesses and will further deploy into fiscal '24, such as -- think of it almost as a copilot agent assist where we're helping our agents be more efficient. That's going to yield short-term results if nothing else in client satisfaction. And again, we know happy clients lead to a longer staying clients that leads to more sales and the wheel if you will.

但這同時也引出了您關於短期和長期影響的第二個要點。我認為，在短期內以及長期內，我們都能抓住機遇，將生成式人工智慧真正應用於我們為客戶提供的專業知識中，從而產生影響。因此，當我們思考如何讓客戶更容易與我們互動，或者我們的員工更容易與客戶互動時，我們已經在各個業務部門部署了一些工具，並將在2024財年進一步推廣，例如——您可以把它想像成一個輔助代理，幫助我們的代理提高效率。即使沒有其他效果，這也會立即帶來客戶滿意度方面的提升。而且，我們都知道，滿意的客戶會帶來更長久的客戶關係，從而帶來更多銷售額，如此循環往復。

So I think there are opportunities across all of the strategic priorities to have some impact us in the sooner than the long term. But yes, I'm equally excited about all of them. And certainly, we spoke quite a bit about the global piece.

所以我認為，所有策略重點都存在著一些機會，可以在短期內而非長期內對我們產生影響。是的，我對所有重點都同樣感到興奮。當然，我們也深入探討了全球層面的問題。

In terms of the next generation time engine, that is being developed in tandem with our Next Generation Payroll engine. And those 2 things are really about time and payroll sitting together in our mid-market. It is a based on the same backbone of technology.

下一代時間引擎正與我們的下一代薪資引擎同步開發。這兩項技術旨在將時間和薪資管理功能整合到我們的中階市場解決方案中，它們基於相同的技術核心。

And so we're very excited to take that more broadly across the mid-market as we continue to take the Next Generation Payroll engine also more broadly crossed. And I think both of those things will get feathered into the impact of our win rates, if you will, and our new business bookings in the mid-market throughout the course of '24.

因此，我們非常高興能將這項技術更廣泛地推廣到中端市場，同時也將繼續擴大下一代薪資引擎的覆蓋範圍。我認為這兩項措施都將在2024年期間逐步提升我們的中端市場成交率和新業務預訂量。

And then, Don, you mentioned the margin expectations for the full year. And you mentioned that in the first quarter, it's probably going to be a little bit lower and then feather up over the course of the year. How much lower during the first quarter? And what's the driver there? And then how should we think about the pacing of the improvement quarter-to-quarter?

唐，你剛才提到了全年的利潤率預期。你提到第一季利潤率可能會略低一些，然後隨著年數的增加逐漸回升。第一季會低多少？原因是什麼？我們又該如何看待利潤率逐季度提升的步伐呢？

Yes, Mark, thanks for the question. The -- we're not looking at a big change in the first quarter, but just a couple of the drivers. Just to be clear. One, we do have some incremental investment in cost and headcount, et cetera. But the other big driver in the first quarter is it's a big borrowing quarter for us in our laddered client fund interest strategy. So that's going to put a little bit of pressure on the margin for the fourth -- sorry, for the first quarter. And the margin will continue to build over the course of the year, and we will get the overall improvement that we expected, but more out of the 3 quarters as opposed to the first.

是的，馬克，謝謝你的提問。我們預計第一季不會有太大變化，只有幾個主要因素。首先，我們確實在成本和人員配置等方面進行了一些額外的投資。但第一季的另一個主要驅動因素是，這是我們階梯式客戶基金利息策略中藉款較多的季度。因此，這將對第四季度——抱歉，是第一季——的利潤率造成一些壓力。利潤率將在年內持續成長，我們將實現預期的整體改善，但這種改善將更多地體現在後三個季度，而不是第一季。

Our next question comes from Eugene Simuni with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 MoffettNathanson 公司的 Eugene Simuni。

I want to come back to the PEO for a second. So great to hear about strong PEO bookings in the fourth quarter and going into the new year. Can you provide a bit more color on what helped generate this reacceleration in bookings? I know you talked in the past, Maria, about some of the actions you guys have taken to generate PEO sales. I would love to hear what caused the acceleration in bookings? And are those initiatives that those kind of levers you're pulling now completely pulled or is it still work in progress and will continue into FY '24?

我想再談談PEO業務。很高興聽到第四季以及新年伊始PEO訂單量強勁成長。您能否詳細介紹一下是什麼因素促成了訂單量的再次加速成長？我知道您之前提到過一些你們為促進PEO銷售而採取的措施，Maria。我很想知道是什麼因素導致了訂單量的加速成長？這些措施是否已完全奏效，還是仍在進行中，並將持續到2024財年？

Sure, Eugene. PEO bookings, again, we're incredibly pleased with the results in the fourth quarter and the reacceleration. We also did see the reacceleration in the third quarter. So the back half of the PEO was exactly as you suggested. It was a lot of focus for the management team, and I'm really excited about how we came together to execute. And in terms of the overall demand trends in long term, short term, I remain bullish on the overall value proposition of the PEO and the demand that it warrants. It's hard in that business to kind of pin down the demand trends because there are so many variables. And in the PEO, it's not as simple as looking at just leads and number of request for proposals that are coming in, because as you know, not every client is a potential fits.

當然，尤金。關於PEO的預訂情況，我們對第四季的業績和重新加速成長感到非常滿意。第三季我們也看到了這種加速成長的跡象。所以，PEO下半年的表現正如您所說。管理團隊投入了大量精力，我對我們齊心協力完成這項工作感到非常興奮。就長期和短期整體需求趨勢而言，我仍然看好PEO的整體價值主張及其應有的需求。在這個行業，很難準確預測需求趨勢，因為影響因素太多了。在PEO領域，僅僅關注銷售線索和收到的提案請求數量是不夠的，因為如您所知，並非每個客戶都適合PEO。

So it's a little difficult to pin down kind of the various demand trends in the specificity outside of the overall belief in the demand environment. And there's normal level of kind of variability as it relates to PEO bookings quarter-to-quarter, which also makes it hard to kind of spot various trends. Some of that has to do with the calendar year-end, some of that has to do with when renewals happen. But nonetheless, there was a tremendous amount of focus and still remains. We remain very focused as a team across all of the leadership to make sure that we continue to drive the strong growth in bookings in the PEO in '24.

因此，除了對整體需求環境的判斷之外，很難具體地確定各種需求趨勢。 PEO 預訂量季度之間通常存在一定程度的波動，這也使得識別各種趨勢變得更加困難。部分原因在於日曆年結束的時間，部分原因在於續約的時間。儘管如此，我們一直非常重視並將繼續關注這一點。我們整個領導團隊將繼續全力以赴，確保在 2024 年繼續推動 PEO 預訂量的強勁成長。

Got it. Okay. And then for my follow-up, probably for Don. You talked about margin costs a little bit. So you expect another year of robust margin improvement next year, but obviously, you're not going to have as much tailwind in revenue growth as you had this year. And if you kind of do some of the back of the envelope math, it looks like your adjusted OpEx will need to grow slower next year than it did this year for you to hit your goal. So just hoping maybe you can talk a little bit what are the areas of spend where you will temper next year or maybe pull back, especially if macro conditions are not as good as kind of we expect them to be.

明白了。好的。接下來我想問的是唐（Don）的問題。您剛才提到了一些利潤率成本。您預計明年利潤率將持續保持強勁成長，但顯然，營收成長的順風效應不如今年那麼強勁。如果粗略估算一下，為了達到目標，您明年的調整後營運支出成長速度需要低於今年。所以，我希望您能談談明年您會在哪些方面控製或縮減支出，尤其是在宏觀經濟情勢不如預期的情況下。

Yes. So thanks for the question. Let me start by what won't change. So what won't change is that we'll continue to make sure that we invest in key areas of the business to make sure that we can run it effectively and with the strong bookings, we'll make sure that we have the people on the ground for implementation to get those deals up and running and generating revenue for us, et cetera.

是的。謝謝你的提問。首先我想說說哪些方面不會改變。我們將繼續確保對業務的關鍵領域進行投資，以確保業務高效運作。憑藉強勁的預訂量，我們將確保配備足夠的人員負責落實這些交易，使其順利進行並為我們創造收入等等。

But in the last year, we did have pretty substantial growth in -- over the last couple of years coming out of the pandemic, I can't believe we're still talking about the pandemic but as we came up with that, we did have substantial growth in expenses, in service, implementation, sales, et cetera. And while we do continue to expect to see some growth, we're not going to see as much growth in expenses in those areas.

但在過去一年裡，我們在疫情後的幾年裡確實取得了相當大的增長——我簡直不敢相信我們還在談論疫情，但隨著疫情的蔓延，我們的支出、服務、實施、銷售等等都出現了顯著增長。雖然我們仍然預期會有一些成長，但這些領域的支出成長不會像以前那麼大了。

So that would be one of the areas that is going to make sure and you hit on that with respect to OpEx, we're not going to see the growth in OpEx expense that we saw in the prior year.

所以，這將是我們要確保的領域之一，就營運支出而言，我們不會看到像前一年那樣的營運支出成長。

The other contributor, of course, that will continue to contribute, I think the yield curve is more favorable than it was the last time I spoke to you all. We will get contribution from client fund interest next year. But at the same time, it's not going to be to the extent that we did in '23. So that's also going to help with driving margins higher. But once again, not the same tailwind -- tailwinds that we had in '23. I think those are the main items that are going to help us improve our margins going into next year.

當然，另一個持續貢獻因素是殖利率曲線，我認為目前的殖利率曲線比上次我跟大家談時更有利。明年我們將獲得客戶基金利息的貢獻。但同時，其規模不會像2023年那麼大。這也將有助於提高利潤率。但同樣，我們無法獲得像2023年那樣強勁的順風。我認為這些是明年幫助我們提高利潤率的主要因素。

Our next question comes from Scott Wurtzel with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Scott Wurtzel。

Maybe, Don, first on the cadence of revenue growth. I know you said it should be relatively stable throughout the year, but wondering if you can maybe sort of parse that out between ES and PEO if there's any differences we should think about there?

唐，或許我們可以先談談營收成長的節奏。我知道你說過全年應該相對穩定，但我想問你能不能具體分析ES和PEO之間的差異，看看有沒有什麼需要我們注意的地方？

Yes. So I think revenue growth is going to be -- revenue growth is going to be pretty consistent throughout the year as we start that big backlog that we now have as a result of that very, very strong fourth quarter bookings result. So we will see consistency there. Likewise with PEO, it's going to be a bit of a slower burn as we did have strong sales in Q4. So we did also talk about slightly lower pays per control growth in the PEO business. So -- but I don't think they're really going to be that different. I think they're going to be pretty close if you think about the overall growth and when you consolidate the results for the company, not substantially different between the business units.

是的。所以我認為營收成長將會——隨著我們開始處理目前因第四季強勁的訂單量而累積的大量積壓訂單，營收成長將在全年保持相當穩定。因此，我們會看到營收成長的穩定性。同樣，PEO業務的成長速度會稍慢一些，因為我們在第四季的銷售額也很強勁。我們也討論過PEO業務的每控制費用成長會略低一些。所以——但我認為兩者之間的差異不會太大。如果你考慮整體成長，並將公司業績合併分析，我認為它們會非常接近，各個業務部門之間的差異不會很大。

Yes, Scott, there is a slightly different cadence for the 2, it's not a huge difference. For PEO, we do expect an acceleration over the course of the year. So the contribution we get from our bookings and from the improvements in retention, we're expecting gradually overcoming slowing pays per control that should lead to an accelerating PEO revenue growth.

是的，Scott，兩者的節奏略有不同，但差異不大。對於PEO業務，我們預計今年將加速成長。因此，我們預期預訂量和客戶留存率提升帶來的貢獻將逐步抵銷按控制付費成長放緩的影響，進而推動PEO收入加速成長。

And on ES, we're expecting some deceleration assuming pays per control decelerate and assuming the contribution from client funds interest starts to fade gradually over the course of the year. So you end up with 2 different-looking ramps, but they offset and that's what nets us to a very stable revenue growth overall.

至於ES，我們預期其成長速度會放緩，這是因為假設每隻股票的收益會下降，且客戶資金利息的貢獻會在一年內逐漸減弱。因此，最終會出現兩條看似不同的成長曲線，但它們相互抵消，從而使整體收入成長非常穩定。

Got it. That's very helpful. And then maybe just a follow-up on the Gen AI topic, going back to it. Obviously, there's a lot to sort of be excited about there. But just kind of wondering the magnitude of investment needed there, is that investment essentially all incremental to your investment plans for the year? Or have you had to maybe put some other projects on the back burner to focus a little more on Gen AI?

明白了，這很有幫助。接下來我想再問關於Gen AI的話題。顯然，Gen AI有很多令人興奮的地方。我想了解這方面需要多少投資，這些投資是否都包含在您今年的投資計畫中？或者您是否必須暫時擱置其他一些項目，以便更專注於Gen AI？

Yes and yes. And so said differently, the good news is we just went through our strategic plan process in the last 6 months. And so we had all of our priority sequence in all of our investments and incremental investments lined up. As we marry that to Gen AI, we have a very clear lens on where some projects may get enhanced, and where some projects may look different and perhaps get replaced by a new way of thinking about it.

是的，沒錯。換句話說，好消息是我們在過去六個月裡剛完成了策略規劃流程。因此，我們所有投資和增量投資的優先順序都已安排妥當。當我們把這些與Gen AI結合時，我們就能非常清楚地看到哪些項目可以改進，哪些項目可能需要調整方向，甚至被新的思路所取代。

And so candidly speaking, we're going through a lot of these opportunities at this juncture kind of thinking through the bets and there will be incremental investment, and there will be other investments that we repurposed to go do some of these things in a new way. So the answer is both.

坦白說，我們目前正在權衡很多機會，仔細考慮各種投資策略，既會有新增投資，也會將一些現有投資重新調整用途，以全新的方式開展這些項目。所以答案是兩者兼具。

Our next question comes from Peter Christiansen with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的彼得‧克里斯蒂安森。

I'll also add to the congratulations ratio. Nice trends. Maria, a question on the international scaling effort here. I was just wondering if you -- in this context, if you could put some parameters on expected investment spend, I guess, over the next 1 to 2 years? And do you see M&A as an important contributor to the growth algorithm there?

我也要祝賀一下。發展勢頭不錯。瑪麗亞，關於國際擴張方面，我有個問題。我想問您，在這個背景下，您能否大致估算一下未來一到兩年的預期投資支出？您認為併購對成長演算法有重要貢獻嗎？

Sure. You started with a question on international. So is the rest of your question about international? Or is it just in general?

當然。你一開始問的是關於國際方面的問題。那麼你剩下的問題也是關於國際方面的嗎？還是泛指其他方面？

Yes, international.

是的，國際性的。

About international. Yes. So we have been, over the years, been making in-country decisions on investments. I talked a lot about the, call it, the feet on the street, the final mile of infrastructure that we have to support our international business. And so we will continue to do that. That's inclusive of each year. We go into new markets and some of those are organic ways that we go into new markets. Some of those are actually partners that we ultimately end up at some point, call it, purchasing, if you will, or acquiring. And so the answer is both organic and inorganic. That's kind of how we've built the business over the last 20 years. And we will continue where warranted to think about it both ways. And the decision criteria for us is really about speed.

關於國際業務。是的。多年來，我們一直都是在各國做出投資決策。我之前多次提到過，我們為了支持國際業務，需要「實地考察」和「最後一公里」的基礎設施。我們會繼續這樣做，這貫穿每年。我們會進入新市場，其中一些是透過自身發展的方式進入的，而有些則是透過合作夥伴最終達成的，也就是所謂的收購。所以答案是既有自身發展也有外部收購。過去20年，我們就是這樣發展業務的。在必要時，我們會繼續兼顧這兩種方式。對我們來說，決策的關鍵在於速度。

A lot of times, it's our clients that pulled us into incremental markets. When I think about the 5 markets that we went into this year or the 2 countries that we're heading into with global view, they're byproduct of clients that are choosing to pay employees in certain markets. And as such, for us, a lot of times the decision we make on how to get there, has a lot to do with speed. And as such, again, we will leverage both organic and inorganic ways to get there. So I don't know -- Don, you ran our international business for a very long time, I don't know if you want to add anything.

很多時候，是我們的客戶把我們帶入了新的市場。想想我們今年進入的五個市場，或是我們正著眼於全球計畫進入的兩個國家，它們都是顧客選擇在某些市場僱用員工的副產品。因此，對我們來說，很多時候，我們如何進入這些市場，這很大程度取決於速度。所以，我們會再次利用有機成長和有機擴張相結合的方式來實現目標。所以，唐，你長期負責我們的國際業務，不知道你是否還有什麼要補充的。

Yes, maybe just to add, I think what we've been doing, Peter, over the last number of years is we have done a number of acquisitions. They've been mostly tuck-ins, but we did have 3 interesting ones over the last year. We acquired an Italian company that has a good budget -- payroll budgeting software tool that's very prominent in the Italian market. We acquired our Streamline Celergo partner in South Africa, and we also bought a very exciting mid-market time-and-attendance product called SecureX in out of Bangalore and India. So -- and that product is available in India, most of Southeast Asia and the Middle East.

是的，或許可以補充一點，彼得，我認為過去幾年我們一直在做的是進行一些收購。這些收購大多是補充性收購，但去年我們確實完成了三筆比較重要的收購。我們收購了一家預算充足的義大利公司——該公司開發了一款在義大利市場非常知名的薪資預算軟體工具。我們收購了在南非的合作夥伴 Streamline Celergo，此外，我們還收購了一款非常令人振奮的中階市場考勤產品 SecureX，該產品來自印度班加羅爾。這款產品目前在印度、東南亞大部分地區和中東地區均有販售。

So I think that's a demonstration of what we've been doing, we've been looking at and focused on to continue to make sure we grow that footprint, and we do think it continues to be an exciting space for us.

所以我認為這證明了我們一直在做的事情，我們一直在關注和努力，以確保我們繼續擴大這一影響力，而且我們確實認為這仍然是一個令人興奮的領域。

That's great color. And Don, just as a follow-up, last slide on the maturation schedule of client fund investments, super helpful. But as we think about intra-year investment turnover, should that correlate with the seasonal balance levels that we typically see?

顏色真漂亮。還有，唐，最後補充一下，關於客戶基金投資到期時間表的最後一張幻燈片非常有用。但是，當我們考慮年內投資週轉率時，它是否應該與我們通常看到的季節性餘額水平相關？

Yes. So I think as those investments mature, you're going to see those investments reinvested at higher rates, and we do expect to see our average return go up over the course of the year. The current reinvestment schedules, overnights are reinvesting at 5%. The extended in the loan portfolios are being reinvested at about 4%. We don't expect to see a huge change in the mix although the average duration of our investments has shortened a little bit over the last couple of years, but you can pretty much look at those yields, look at the maturity schedule that we provided and then look at the composition of our portfolio across the overnight, the extended and the long and pretty much come to a conclusion or come to some numbers on where you think we're going to end up.

是的。我認為隨著這些投資到期，我們將以更高的利率進行再投資，我們也預期今年的平均報酬率將會上升。目前的再投資計畫中，隔夜債券的再投資利率為5%，貸款組合中的延期債券的再投資利率約為4%。儘管過去幾年我們投資的平均久期略有縮短，但我們預期投資組合的組成不會發生太大變化。您可以參考這些收益率、我們提供的到期時間表，以及我們投資組合中隔夜債券、延期債券和長期債券的組成，從而大致了解我們最終的收益情況。

Just one quick one. How should we think about the duration strategy, I guess, for the next couple of quarters here, now that the Fed is perhaps kind of like stabilized, but are -- is there an effort to extend duration shorten it? Just any sense there would be helpful.

就問一個問題。鑑於聯準會目前可能已經趨於穩定，我們該如何看待未來幾季的久期策略？是應該延長還是縮短久期？任何想法都會很有幫助。

Yes. We've had this question a few times, and the answer is we've been very successful with the strategy that we've had for the last 20 years. We certainly see that there is an opportunity cost not having everything in short today. At the same time, we do believe that the yield curve will normalize and the strategy we've had in place will come back and be beneficial to us over the longer term. So you shouldn't expect any significant change in our investment strategy.

是的。我們已經被問過幾次這個問題了，答案是，過去20年來我們一直在採取的策略非常成功。我們當然明白，現在不做空所有資產確實存在機會成本。但同時，我們相信殖利率曲線終將回歸正常，我們現有的策略最終會再次發揮作用，並在長期內對我們有利。因此，您不必擔心我們的投資策略會發生任何重大變化。

Our next question comes from James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的詹姆斯·福塞特。

I wanted to go back quickly on retention. I know you've touched on it a little bit. Last year, your initial outlook called for around 50 -- minus 50 to minus 25 basis points of retention degradation. But that obviously didn't really play out. And this year, you're starting with a more conservative kind of minus 70 to minus 50. But I'm hoping you could speak to how much conservatism is embedded there? And what are the drivers that you're seeing as a reason to be a little bit more conservative to start than maybe you were last year even?

我想快速地再談談用戶留存率的問題。我知道您之前已經稍微提過。去年，您最初的預測是用戶留存率下降幅度在 50 到 25 個基點之間。但顯然實際情況並非如此。今年，您的預測則更為保守，為 70 到 50 個基點。我希望您能解釋一下這種保守程度體現在哪些方面？您認為促使今年的預測比去年更保守的原因是什麼？

Yes, fair -- it's a fair observation, James. Appreciate it. I think the we thought about -- by the way, I wish I knew the answer, right? So the question you're asking, which is how much conservatism is in there? And that's all to say and you hit the nail on the head, we stepped into this year guiding minus 25 to 50, we're stepping into fiscal '24 with a guide of minus 50 to 70, and we hope -- I'll end -- or I'll start with, we're very happy with where things are. We're firing on all cylinders. We have many businesses that have record NPS results, record retention results, and everything is good.

是的，說得對──詹姆斯，你的觀察很中肯。謝謝。我想我們考慮過——順便說一句，我真希望我知道答案，對吧？所以你問的問題是，其中保守程度有多高？總而言之，你說的很對，我們今年年初的業績指引是-25%到-50%，2024財年的指引是-50%到-70%，我們希望——我最後要說——或者說我開頭要說，我們對目前的情況非常滿意。我們各方面都運作良好。我們有很多業務的淨推薦值（NPS）和客戶留存率都創下了歷史新高，一切都很好。

And so as we step into the year, the way that we are modeling what you would see in pays per control. The way we're thinking about the potential macroeconomic tempering, if you will, specifically in the back half, is really a byproduct of how we see retention.

因此，隨著我們邁入新的一年，我們對每控球權付費模式的建模方式，以及我們對潛在的宏觀經濟緩和因素（尤其是在下半年）的思考，實際上是我們對留存率預測的副產品。

Part of what we saw in the fourth quarter that led to the incredible results that we had was that the normalization that we've been seeing in the down market. We did actually see the down market bounce a little bit. So even while it was down year-on-year, it came in stronger than we expected. And so we do anticipate that we may need to give some of that back, which is why we believe it was prudent to align our retention targets to our medium-term targets that we gave back in the Investor Day of 2021.

我們在第四季取得令人矚目的業績，部分原因在於市場低迷時期逐漸恢復正常。事實上，我們確實看到市場出現了一些反彈。因此，儘管同比有所下降，但反彈力度卻超出了我們的預期。正因如此，我們預計可能需要調整部分策略，這也是我們認為將留存目標與我們在2021年投資者日上公佈的中期目標保持一致是明智之舉的原因。

So I wish I knew the answer to your question in terms of how much conservatism, why we are guiding to what we're guiding is really about the economic outlook, whether that's GDP, unemployment is still at record lows. We haven't seen unemployment rates that low since the 60s. And so our guess is as good as yours at some level, but we did build in some tempering of the economy in the back half, and that's really what's yielding that guide on the retention.

所以，我真希望我能回答你的問題，關於保守程度的問題。我們目前的指導方針實際上是基於經濟前景，例如GDP，以及目前仍處於歷史低點的失業率。我們自上世紀60年代以來就沒見過這麼低的失業率。因此，在某種程度上，我們的猜測和你的一樣，但我們確實在下半年對經濟進行了一些調整，這才是我們制定留存率指導方針的真正原因。

I appreciate that color, Maria. That's really helpful and makes a lot of sense. I want to turn quickly also to M&A. You mentioned it in the prepared remarks, also, I mentioned it as part of at least some of your strategic initiatives. What are you seeing in terms of overall valuation levels? And what kind of things would you be targeting in terms of geography or product capabilities?

瑪麗亞，我很欣賞你提到的顏色。這真的很有幫助，也很有道理。我還想快速談談併購。你在準備好的發言稿中也提到了，我也提到過，至少在你的一些策略性舉措中，併購是其中的一部分。你認為整體估值水準如何？在地域或產品能力方面，你會專注在哪些方面？

Yes, James. So in terms of what we're targeting, what we're talking about, there's always things kicking around, of course, but we want to make sure that anything that we do acquire either fits well in the core and gives us additional capability, or it's something that really exceeds some functionality capability that we currently have, so that we're not stacking on more and more product on top of what we already have.

是的，詹姆斯。至於我們的目標和討論方向，當然總會有一些想法，但我們希望確保我們收購的任何東西要么能很好地融入核心業務並為我們帶來額外的能力，要么能真正超越我們目前擁有的某些功能，這樣我們就不會在現有產品之上疊加越來越多的產品。

The other area, of course, is to make sure that we do things that our natural adjacencies are very strong adjacencies to what we already do so that they fit well. And then thirdly, of course, is making sure that we can sell these things and run these things in a recurring model. So that we can sell them the way we sell everything else we sell today and operate them and expect to get revenue anticipation and good model from what we buy.

當然，另一個方面是確保我們所做的事情與我們現有的業務自然銜接得非常緊密，從而實現完美融合。第三點，當然是確保我們能夠以循環模式銷售和營運這些產品和服務。這樣，我們就可以像銷售其他所有產品和服務一樣銷售它們，並期望從我們購買的產品中獲得預期的收入和良好的營運模式。

So I think those are the things we think about. I think we're hearing a lot around valuations coming down in the press, certainly a little bit of a dearth of activity, if you will, in the M&A space these days. But we do have lots of conversations about acquisitions and whatnot. I still think, of course, everybody is looking to get a premium what they have. And we're trying to make sure that if we're going to buy something, we're paying the right price. But we don't actually get to the point of many of these conversations given the conditions that I stated at the front at the outset to actually have a view on overall valuations in the market.

所以我覺得這些就是我們要考慮的問題。我們常在媒體上看到估值下降的報道，可以說，近來併購市場確實有些冷清。但我們仍然有很多關於收購等方面的討論。當然，我認為每個人都希望從現有資產中獲得溢價。我們也在努力確保，如果我們要收購什麼，我們支付的價格是合理的。但鑑於我一開始提到的種種情況，我們其實並沒有就市場整體估值問題進行深入探討。

We likely get to talking about valuation in a very, very few number of cases. Remembering, of course, very, very few of the opportunities we get even get to that conversation. So I don't think I can say we have a general view. But we are focused on what we would have to pay and how things would fit into ADP.

我們可能只有在極少數情況下才會談到估值。當然，我們也要記住，我們遇到的機會中，真正能走到這一步的更是寥寥無幾。所以我認為我們不能說我們對估值有普遍的看法。但我們關注的是我們需要支付的價格，以及這些收購如何融入ADP的體系。

Our last question comes from Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

最後一個問題來自 Northcoast Research 的 Kartik Mehta。

Maria and Don, you've obviously talked a lot about the PEO and seems that the demand has really picked up. But I'm wondering, are you seeing any of your customers may be taking a little bit of a breather now pointing to sign up for the PEO because of the uncertainty in the economy and that being maybe more expensive product?

瑪麗亞和唐，你們顯然已經多次談到PEO（專業雇主組織），而且需求似乎確實有所增長。但我很好奇，鑑於經濟情勢的不確定性以及PEO產品價格可能更高，你們是否注意到有些客戶現在正在觀望，暫時擱置註冊PEO的計劃？

The PEO has a tremendous value proposition. I think we always refer to ADP as an all-weather company. I would say the most durable of our all-weather businesses is the PEO. And a lot of that has to do with the ability to flex that value proposition in a downturn pretty quickly. So if you think about clients that are growing, they enjoy the PEO because it's a quick go-to-market.

PEO（專業雇主組織）具有巨大的價值主張。我們一直把ADP稱為全天候公司。我認為，在我們所有全天候業務中，PEO是最持久的。這很大程度上歸功於我們在經濟低迷時期能夠迅速且靈活地調整其價值主張。因此，對於那些正在成長的客戶來說，他們喜歡PEO，因為它能幫助他們快速進入市場。

On the downside, if you will, as clients are potentially trying to work through economic headwinds. The PEO serves as a place that has a clear return on investment, has a total cost of ownership that's very again, very clear. And so I think it's a business that not to suggest that it's not impacted by a downturn, but it's a business that kind of works in both. What I would say is our sales force, we're able to pivot that narrative and that value proposition as warranted. I don't believe that has happened.

從不利的方面來說，客戶可能正在努力應對經濟逆風。而PEO（專業雇主組織）的優點在於投資報酬率清晰，總擁有成本也非常明確。因此，我認為PEO業務並非不受經濟衰退的影響，而是能夠兼顧經濟和業績兩方面。我想說的是，我們的銷售團隊能夠根據實際情況調整宣傳策略和價值主張。我認為目前還沒有出現這種情況。

So to answer the question, our clients at this point, hesitant to purchase something such as the PEO that's so comprehensive because of the macroeconomic challenges. And my view would be no. I think that's substantiated by the record results that we had in the PEO bookings in the quarter. We also saw that strength in bookings in the third quarter. So I think that value proposition is holding firm. And I think it's a business that should -- should the economic wins ever come to life that we've been expecting for so long. It's a business that can pivot pretty quickly and the demand for the offer remains.

所以，要回答這個問題，目前我們的客戶是否因為宏觀經濟挑戰而對購買像PEO這樣如此全面的服務猶豫不決？我的看法是不會。我認為，本季PEO訂單量創下歷史新高就證明了這一點。第三季的訂單量也同樣強勁。因此，我認為這項服務的價值主張仍然穩固。而且，我認為，如果期待已久的經濟好轉最終到來，這項業務將會蓬勃發展。它能夠迅速調整策略，而且市場對這項服務的需求仍然存在。

And then just a follow-up. Don, you talked about obviously pays per control and retention, and maybe retention moderating as the year goes through. For pays per control, would you anticipate that just to get to flat by the end of the year? Or are you anticipating that, that could potentially go negative, and that's how you've built the guidance?

還有一個後續問題。唐，你剛才提到了每控制用戶付費和用戶留存率，以及用戶留存率可能會隨著年內增長而趨於平穩。對於每控制用戶付費，你預計到年底會持平嗎？還是你預期它可能會變成負值，而你正是基於這個假設制定了業績指引？

No. We're certainly not anticipating this as go negative. We do, though, think it's going to go to somewhere the neighborhood 1% to 2%, which is a little bit less than our historical average. However, I just want to make sure that everybody understands, we're exiting the year pretty healthily. So we figure we're off to a pretty good start, but we do expect that we're going to see a bit of a decline over the next 3, 4 quarters. And once again, we're aligning ourselves to the best we can with unemployment forecasts and et cetera.

不，我們當然不認為會是負成長。不過，我們認為會降幅約1%到2%左右，略低於歷史平均。但是，我想確保大家明白，我們今年的財務狀況相當健康。所以我們認為開局不錯，但我們預計未來三到四個季度會出現小幅下滑。再次強調，我們會盡力根據失業率預測等因素調整策略。

Kartik, if you're asking specifically about where we're exiting fiscal '24, then the pays per control is effectively decelerating from this kind of 3% range to something flatter.

Kartik，如果你具體問的是我們在 2024 財年結束時的情況，那麼每位控制人員的薪酬實際上正在從 3% 左右的水平放緩到更平緩的水平。

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer portion for today. I am pleased to hand the program over to Maria Black for closing remarks.

謝謝。今天的問答環節到此結束。現在我很高興將節目交給瑪麗亞·布萊克，請她致閉幕詞。

Thank you, and thank you, everyone, for joining today. As you've heard, Don and I, the entire leadership team, we're incredibly pleased with fiscal '23, specifically the fourth quarter and the finish.

謝謝大家，也謝謝各位今天蒞臨。正如你們所聽到的，我和唐，以及整個領導團隊，對2023財年的業績，特別是第四季度和最終的收官表現，感到非常滿意。

So I'll kind of end where I started, which is I want to take the opportunity to once again thank the associates that create this performance. It's an unbelievable magical thing to watch it all come together and deliver what we just delivered. And so my gratitude and I celebrate each and every one of them. I also want to thank all of the stakeholders, including all of you who listen today, appreciate the support. We're certainly excited for fiscal '24. So cheers to that.

所以，我最後想回到我開頭說的，那就是再次感謝所有為取得如此佳績而付出努力的同事們。看著大家齊心協力，最終呈現如此精彩的成果，真是令人難以置信，也充滿魔力。我由衷地感謝每一位同事，並向他們致以崇高的敬意。我也要感謝所有利害關係人，包括今天在座的各位，感謝你們的支持。我們對2024財年充滿期待。讓我們為此乾杯！

Thank you for your participation. This concludes the program, and you may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

感謝您的參與。節目到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。祝大家今天過得愉快。