亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to Analog Devices Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2018 Earnings Conference Call, which is being audio webcast via telephone and over the web. I'd like to now introduce your host for today's call, Mr. Michael Lucarelli, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, the floor is yours.

早安，歡迎參加 Analog Devices 2018 財年第四季及全年財報電話會議，本次會議將透過電話和網路進行音訊直播。現在我謹向大家介紹今天電話會議的主持人，投資者關係總監麥可‧盧卡雷利先生。先生，請您發言。

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining our fourth quarter and fiscal 2018 conference call. With me on the call today are ADI's CEO, Vincent Roche; and ADI's CFO, Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah. For anyone who missed the release, you can find it and relating financial schedules at investor.analog.com.

謝謝你，珍妮弗，大家早安。感謝您參加我們2018財年第四季電話會議。今天和我一起參加電話會議的有 ADI 的執行長 Vincent Roche；以及 ADI 的財務長 Prashanth Mahendra-Rajah。如果您錯過了此次發布，您可以在 investor.analog.com 上找到它以及相關的財務報表。

Now on to the disclosures. The information we're about to discuss, including our objectives and outlook, include forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements as a result of various factors, including those discussed in our earnings release and in our most recent 10-Q. These forward-looking statements reflect our opinion as of the date of this call. We undertake no obligation to update these forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. Today's commentary about ADI's fourth quarter and fiscal '18 financial results will be detailed further in our 10-K, which we expect to file next week. Our comments today about ADI's fourth quarter and fiscal 2018 financial results and short-term outlook will also include non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude special items. When comparing our results to historical performance, special items are also excluded from the prior quarter and year-over-year results. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP measures to their most directly comparable GAAP measures and additional information about our non-GAAP measures are included in today's earnings release and on our web schedules, which we posted on the quarterly results section at investor.analog.com.

接下來是資訊揭露部分。我們即將討論的訊息，包括我們的目標和展望，包含前瞻性陳述。由於各種因素的影響，實際結果可能與這些前瞻性聲明有重大差異，這些因素包括我們在獲利報告和最新的 10-Q 文件中討論的因素。這些前瞻性陳述反映了我們截至本次電話會議之日的觀點。我們不承擔因新資訊或未來事件而更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。今天對 ADI 第四季和 2018 財年財務表現的評論將在我們預計下週提交的 10-K 文件中進一步詳細說明。我們今天對 ADI 2018 財年第四季度和財務業績以及短期展望的評論還將包括非 GAAP 財務指標，其中不包括特殊項目。在將我們的業績與歷史業績進行比較時，上一季和上一年業績中也排除了特殊項目。這些非GAAP指標與其最直接可比的GAAP指標的調節表以及有關我們非GAAP指標的更多信息，已包含在今天的收益報告中以及我們發佈在 investor.analog.com 季度業績部分的網頁日程表中。

Okay. With that, I'll turn it over to ADI CEO, Vincent Roche. Vince?

好的。接下來，我將把發言權交給ADI執行長文森羅奇。文斯？

Thank you, Mike, and good morning, everyone. Well, I'm very pleased to report that ADI had another excellent quarter to cap off what was an exceptional year for the company. We once again hit a high watermark by achieving record revenue of $1.6 billion in the fourth quarter. In addition, we expanded operating margins to 43% and delivered $1.55 of diluted earnings per share.

謝謝你，麥克，大家早安。我很高興地報告，ADI公司迎來了一個出色的季度，為公司非凡的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。我們在第四季再次創下營收新高，達到創紀錄的16億美元。此外，我們的營業利潤率提高至 43%，稀釋後每股收益為 1.55 美元。

Looking at the full year now, revenues surpassed $6 billion for the first time. Growth was led by our B2B markets that increased well into the double-digits year-over-year. Diluted earnings per share increased more than 20% year-over-year, and most notably, we generated over $2 billion of free cash flow.

從全年來看，營收首次突破 60 億美元大關。成長主要由我們的 B2B 市場帶動，年成長達到兩位數。稀釋後每股盈餘年增超過 20%，尤其值得一提的是，我們產生了超過 20 億美元的自由現金流。

This robust cash generation enabled us to continue investing in the future of our business, rapidly reduced our debt by over $1.5 billion during the year and returned cash to our shareholders. As we outlined on the last call, going forward, we plan to return 100% of our free cash flow after debt repayments. In fact, we've returned $10 billion to our shareholders since 2005 through dividends and share repurchases.

強勁的現金流使我們能夠繼續投資於業務的未來，在一年內迅速減少了超過 15 億美元的債務，並將現金返還給了股東。正如我們在上次電話會議上所概述的那樣，展望未來，我們計劃在償還債務後，將 100% 的自由現金流返還給投資者。事實上，自 2005 年以來，我們已透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了 100 億美元。

Beyond being a strong year financially, it was also a year of exceptional business progress for ADI, also. So I'd like to spend a little time describing our progress in 2018 and show how specifically it positions ADI for continued strength in 2019 and, indeed, beyond.

除了財務表現強勁之外，對於 ADI 而言，這也是業務取得卓越進展的一年。因此，我想花點時間介紹一下我們在 2018 年取得的進展，並具體說明這些進展如何使 ADI 在 2019 年乃至更遠的未來保持強勁勢頭。

Firstly, we made tremendous progress in the integration of LTC using our best-of-both approach. Employees across the entire organization are unified and working towards a common goal of delivering long-term profitable growth. Our R&D teams have synergized product roadmaps and development activities, and are busily extending the cutting edge of analog, mixed signal, power and sensors to deliver impactful solutions to our customers. Our combined sales force has made really great strides in building and converting our opportunity pipeline. In fact, our revenue cross-selling opportunity has doubled in value since our Analyst Day across large customers and also in the broad market.

首先，我們採用兩全其美的方法，在 LTC 的整合方面取得了巨大進展。整個組織的員工團結一致，朝著實現長期獲利成長的共同目標努力。我們的研發團隊協同產品路線圖和開發活動，正積極拓展模擬、混合訊號、電源和感測器領域的尖端技術，為我們的客戶提供有影響力的解決方案。我們的銷售團隊在建立和轉換銷售機會方面取得了巨大的進展。事實上，自分析師日以來，我們在大客戶和整個市場中的交叉銷售收入機會價值翻了一番。

During the year, we successfully achieved our initial $150 million of cost synergies. In addition, as previously announced, we're optimizing our internal manufacturing footprint, reducing our cost basis by another $100 million, while enabling a more agile operation that is positioned to capture new growth upside. All that said, given the complementarity of our combined product portfolio and customer relationships, we're increasingly confident in our objective to double LTC's revenue growth over the next few years. In short, we've created an industry-leading product portfolio and team of analog, RF and power engineers with capabilities that range from sensor to cloud from DC to 100 gigahertz and from nanowatts to kilowatts.

年內，我們成功實現了最初1.5億美元的成本綜效。此外，正如先前宣布的那樣，我們正在優化內部生產佈局，將成本基礎再降低 1 億美元，同時實現更靈活的運營，從而抓住新的成長機會。綜上所述，鑑於我們合併後的產品組合和客戶關係具有互補性，我們越來越有信心在未來幾年內實現 LTC 收入翻倍的目標。簡而言之，我們打造了業界領先的產品組合和類比、射頻和電源工程師團隊，其能力涵蓋從感測器到雲端，從直流到 100 吉赫茲，從納瓦到千瓦。

We exit 2018 in a stronger position than we've ever been and are extremely well prepared strategically and operationally to grow and take market share in 2019 and, indeed, beyond. In addition to our own preparedness, our confidence is grounded in a few externalities that transcend any potential short-term uncertainty in 2019, namely: immutable technology macro trends that are creating secular tailwinds for ADI; ADI's analog expertise between the physical and digital domains becomes ever more critical to our customers' business success; and simultaneously, our customers are partnering more deeply with us to get the full benefit of our technology capabilities and product solutions to enable them to meet the innovation demands of their customers, and we're very well aligned with these externalities and have been making strong progress during the past year to position ourselves for success in 2019 and beyond.

2018 年結束時，我們比以往任何時候都更加強大，並且在策略和營運方面都做好了充分的準備，以在 2019 年乃至未來實現成長並搶佔市場份額。除了我們自身的準備之外，我們的信心還源於一些超越2019年任何潛在短期不確定性的外部因素，即：不可改變的技術宏觀趨勢正在為ADI創造長期的順風；ADI在物理和數位領域之間的模擬專業知識對客戶的業務成功變得越來越重要；與此同時，我們的客戶正在與我們更深入地合作，從而充分利用其技術和客戶解決方案的創新需求。我們與這些外部因素高度契合，並在過去一年中取得了顯著進展，為2019年及以後的成功奠定了基礎。

For example, in the wireless communication sector, you may have seen recent press around deployments of 5G massive MIMO beginning in Korea. ADI's software-defined transceivers are enabling those deployments, and this is just the beginning. Many other global carriers are expected to deploy 5G massive MIMO over the coming years. Much of the innovation of 5G systems is taking place in the radio subsystem. Given the increasing demands of -- for spectral space, thermal and cost efficiency, our comprehensive portfolio of software-defined mixed signal, RF, microwave and power management technologies will enable ADI to create even more compelling solutions for our customers in the years ahead. These massive MIMO-enabled radios contain an 8x increase in radio channels, representing a significant growth opportunity for ADI and the opportunity to capture, potentially, up to 4x the content when compared to current 4G solutions.

例如，在無線通訊領域，您可能已經看到最近有關韓國開始部署 5G 大規模 MIMO 的新聞報導。ADI 的軟體定義收發器正在推動這些部署，而這只是個開始。預計未來幾年，許多其他全球營運商也將部署 5G 大規模 MIMO 技術。5G 系統的大部分創新都發生在無線子系統中。鑑於對頻譜空間、熱效率和成本效率的要求不斷提高，我們全面的軟體定義混合訊號、射頻、微波和電源管理技術組合將使 ADI 能夠在未來幾年為我們的客戶創造更具吸引力的解決方案。這些大規模支援 MIMO 的無線電設備包含 8 倍的無線電頻道，這為 ADI 帶來了巨大的成長機會，並且與目前的 4G 解決方案相比，有可能捕捉高達 4 倍的內容。

I should note also that in addition, power management attached assignments in this area are just beginning but progress thus far leads us to believe that our power portfolio will continue to provide tailwinds for us in communications in 2019 and in further years. And indeed, massive MIMO is just a stepping stone to millimeter-wave-based future generations. Here, carriers will look to increase the radio channel count up to 512 channels per radio and we're very well positioned to, once again, solve these immense radio challenges with our comprehensive cutting-edge portfolio. So I believe we're really in the early stages of a multiyear growth cycle in this particular space.

我還應該指出，此外，該領域的電力管理相關任務才剛剛開始，但迄今為止的進展讓我們相信，我們的電力組合將在 2019 年及以後的幾年裡繼續為我們在通訊領域提供順風。事實上，大規模 MIMO 只是邁向基於毫米波的未來幾代技術的墊腳石。在這裡，運營商將尋求將每個無線電的頻道數量增加到 512 個頻道，而我們憑藉我們全面的尖端產品組合，完全有能力再次解決這些巨大的無線電挑戰。所以我認為，我們目前正處於這個特定領域多年成長週期的早期階段。

So now turning for a moment to the industrial sector. Here, the digital factory envisioned by industry 4.0 is expected to increase productivity and lower cost. ADI has the heritage, the domain expertise and the most comprehensive set of technologies and capabilities to deliver the required level of precision and robustness our customers need. For example, we're building beyond our traditional strength in precision control, isolation and power products by adding communications technologies, such as industrial-grade deterministic Ethernet and sensors in areas such as depth, motion and vibration, which more than triples our content opportunity and expands our addressable market.

現在我們來談談工業領域。在此，工業 4.0 所設想的數位化工廠可望提高生產率並降低成本。ADI 擁有悠久的歷史、豐富的專業知識以及最全面的技術和能力，能夠提供客戶所需的精確度和穩健性。例如，我們正在超越我們在精密控制、隔離和電源產品方面的傳統優勢，透過增加通訊技術（例如工業級確定性乙太網路）和深度、運動和振動等領域的感測器，使我們的內容機會增加了兩倍多，並擴大了我們的目標市場。

In automotive, FY '18 was a year of really solid progress and I have increased conviction that we're on the right path to return to our target growth rate of at least high single digits annually. Growth in our cabin electronics business has accelerated to a double-digit growth rate this past year, driven mainly by our long-term strength in audio processing. And our future is equally bright here. We're adding new vectors to our audio processing foundation, like A2B and C2B media transport technologies, and we're attaching our power management portfolio in these engagements as well, positioning us for continued strong growth in this particular subsector.

在汽車產業，2018 財年取得了非常穩健的進展，我更加確信我們正走在正確的道路上，能夠恢復到每年至少接近兩位數的成長率目標。過去一年，我們的客艙電子產品業務成長速度加快，達到了兩位數的成長率，這主要得益於我們在音訊處理領域的長期優勢。我們這裡的未來同樣光明。我們正在為音訊處理基礎架構添加新的向量，例如 A2B 和 C2B 媒體傳輸技術，我們還將電源管理產品組合融入這些專案中，使我們能夠在這一特定細分領域繼續保持強勁增長。

On the active safety side of the business, high-speed signal processing technology is required to deliver ever-increasing levels of precision in Level 3-plus autonomous vehicles. Here, ADI's radar, LIDAR and IMU solutions, coupled with power management, are strengthening our position across nearly all self-driving programs. And as is the case -- as in the case with Baidu, our customers are relying on ADI to achieve their vision of fully autonomous vehicles.

在主動安全方面，需要高速訊號處理技術來為 L3+ 級自動駕駛汽車提供越來越高的精度。在這裡，ADI 的雷達、光達和 IMU 解決方案，再加上電源管理，正在加強我們在幾乎所有自動駕駛項目中的地位。就像百度一樣，我們的客戶依靠 ADI 來實現他們實現全自動駕駛汽車的願景。

In the electrification application area, we've made stellar progress in strengthening our BMS solutions in FY '18. Our current generation delivers up to 20% more miles per charge compared to the competition and extends the batteries' useful life. We are now sampling our next-generation solution, which provides another efficiency and performance leap while adding additional safety features. Beyond that, the subsequent generation of our multigenerational roadmap includes architectural innovations that will change the way the BMS problems of power density, accuracy and weight are solved in the future.

在電氣化應用領域，我們在 2018 財年加強了我們的 BMS 解決方案，並取得了顯著進展。與競爭對手相比，我們目前的這一代產品每次充電可多行駛 20% 的里程，並延長電池的使用壽命。我們現在正在試用我們的下一代解決方案，該方案在提高效率和效能的同時，也增加了額外的安全功能。除此之外，我們多代路線圖的後續版本還包括架構創新，這將改變未來解決電池管理系統功率密度、精確度和重量問題的方式。

And finally, I'd like to say a few words about our health care business and progress. Revenue in this market has increased at a double-digit growth rate over the past 5 years, and I believe it's really just getting started. In areas such as remote patient monitoring and digital x-ray systems, ADI's expertise in high-performance sensing, signal processing and power control is ever more critical to our customers. For example, in the area of digital x-ray imaging, several years ago, we made a pivot to a domain-inspired approach to solve our customers' most difficult problems.

最後，我想簡單談談我們的醫療保健業務和進展。過去 5 年，該市場的收入以兩位數的速度成長，而且我認為這只是個開始。在遠距病人監護和數位 X 光系統等領域，ADI 在高性能感測、訊號處理和功率控制方面的專業知識對我們的客戶來說越來越重要。例如，在數位 X 光成像領域，幾年前，我們轉向以領域為導向的方法來解決客戶最棘手的問題。

We've leveraged our strong heritage of high-end component building blocks and have pushed the innovation curve to new levels to create highly integrated subsystems from photons to bits, for example. These solutions have simplified an intensely complex problem by reducing our customers' design challenges while lowering radiation dosage and simultaneously increasing image fidelity. We've thereby extended our addressable market to capture new levels of value. And in general, in the health care area, I believe that economic needs and new technology adoption are converging to enable a new vein of growth in the future for ADI.

我們充分利用了我們在高端組件構建模組方面的強大傳統，並將創新曲線推向了新的水平，例如，創造了從光子到比特的高度集成子系統。這些解決方案簡化了一個極其複雜的問題，減少了客戶在設計上面臨的挑戰，同時降低了輻射劑量，並提高了影像保真度。因此，我們擴大了目標市場，從而獲得了新的價值。總的來說，在醫療保健領域，我認為經濟需求和新技術應用正在融合，這將為 ADI 的未來發展帶來新的成長動力。

So in closing, I put forth a constructive scenario here today, and while some may be a bit skeptical given the present macro uncertainty and geopolitical fears that beset our world, our confidence, I believe, is very well-founded. We have a diverse business across customers, products and applications that positions us to succeed and excel in any macro climate. We've added enormously to our cutting-edge technology portfolio during the year and we've deepened our customer engagements.

最後，我今天提出了一個建設性的方案，雖然鑑於當前全球宏觀經濟的不確定性和地緣政治的擔憂，有些人可能會對此持懷疑態度，但我相信，我們的信心是有充分理由的。我們在客戶、產品和應用方面擁有多元化的業務，這使我們能夠在任何宏觀環境下取得成功並脫穎而出。今年，我們大幅擴充了尖端科技產品組合，並加深了與客戶的互動。

So we're in a position to capture the upside, while being agile enough to weather any perturbations in the marketplace. And amidst an environment of increasing change and complexity, we continue to leverage our greatest asset, our people, who continuously push the edge, learn and adapt to create ever more innovative solutions for our customers each and every day, which ultimately drives returns for our shareholders.

因此，我們既能掌握市場上漲帶來的機遇，又能靈活應對市場中的任何波動。在日益變化和複雜的環境中，我們繼續發揮我們最大的資產——員工的作用，他們不斷突破界限、學習和適應，每天為我們的客戶創造更具創新性的解決方案，最終為我們的股東帶來回報。

And so with that, I'd like to hand it over to Prashanth.

那麼，接下來我就把麥克風交給普拉桑特了。

Thank you, Vince. Good morning, everyone, and let me add my welcome to our Q4 '18 earnings call. As usual, with the exception of revenue and non-op expenses, my comments on the P&L line items will be on a non-GAAP or adjusted basis, which excludes special items outlined in today's press release. We wrap up 2018 with another record-setting quarter. Revenue at $1.6 billion and EPS of $1.55, and we converted this growth into strong cash flow generating over $2 billion on a trailing 12.

謝謝你，文斯。各位早安，我謹代表大家歡迎參加我們2018年第四季財報電話會議。與往常一樣，除收入和非經營性支出外，我對損益表項目的評論將以非GAAP或調整後為基礎，其中不包括今天新聞稿中概述的特殊項目。2018 年以另一個創紀錄的季度完美收官。營收達 16 億美元，每股收益為 1.55 美元，我們將這一成長轉化為強勁的現金流，在過去 12 個月中產生了超過 20 億美元的現金流。

But before I get into the details of the income statement, let me cover the end markets. Our fourth quarter B2B revenue increased 13% year-over-year, led by double-digit growth in the industrial and communications markets. The highly diverse industrial end-market represented 49% of the sales in the quarter and increased 10% year-over-year. Most sectors increased compared to the year-ago quarter led by strength in instrumentation, health care, aerospace and defense. As expected, this growth was moderated by slower demand in factory automation, mainly related to China.

但在我詳細介紹損益表之前，先介紹一下終端市場。我們的第四季 B2B 營收年增 13%，其中工業和通訊市場實現了兩位數的成長。高度多元化的工業終端市場佔本季銷售額的 49%，較去年同期成長 10%。與去年同期相比，大多數產業均有所成長，其中儀器儀表、醫療保健、航空航太和國防產業表現最為強勁。正如預期的那樣，工廠自動化需求放緩（主要與中國有關）抑制了這一增長。

The comms market, which represented 22% of sales in the fourth quarter, increased once again at the double-digit rate year-over-year, driven by strong performance in both the wireless and wired markets. Growth in our wireless business was broad-based, and accelerated as continued momentum in our 4G business was augmented by early deployments of massive MIMO. We expect this to carry into 2019 and beyond as 5G represents an enormous opportunity for ADI.

通訊市場在第四季度佔銷售額的 22%，在無線和有線市場的強勁表現推動下，再次實現了兩位數的同比增長。我們的無線業務成長基礎廣泛，並且隨著 4G 業務的持續發展勢頭以及大規模 MIMO 的早期部署，成長速度加快。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2019 年及以後，因為 5G 為 ADI 帶來了巨大的機會。

Our auto business represented 15% of sales in the quarter and increased at a low single-digit rate year-over-year. Growth was led by cabin electronics and the BMS application.

本季度，我們的汽車業務佔銷售額的 15%，年成長率為個位數低段。成長主要由客艙電子產品和樓宇管理系統 (BMS) 應用帶動。

And lastly, our consumer business represented 13% of sales in the fourth quarter. As expected, revenues declined year-over-year. However, portables declined less than expected.

最後，我們的消費者業務在第四季度佔銷售額的 13%。正如預期，收入年減。然而，便攜式設備的降幅小於預期。

Now moving on to the P&L. Revenue for the quarter was at the high end of our guidance at approximately $1.6 billion, increasing 4% year-over-year. Gross margins of 71.2% increased 30 bps year-over-year and were flat sequentially. OpEx in the fourth quarter was $452 million and at approximately 28% of revenue, well within our target of sub-30. And finally, op margins were a record at 43%.

接下來來看損益表。本季營收達到預期上限，約 16 億美元，年增 4%。毛利率為 71.2%，較去年成長 30 個基點，較上季持平。第四季營運支出為 4.52 億美元，約佔營收的 28%，遠低於我們低於 30% 的目標。最後，營業利益率創下 43% 的紀錄。

As we continue to delever, non-op expenses in the fourth quarter declined to $56 million. And with our full year true-up, our Q4 tax rate was approximately 8%. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share for the fourth quarter came in above the midpoint at about $0.55.

隨著我們繼續去槓桿化，第四季非經營性支出下降至 5,600 萬美元。經過全年調整，我們第四季的稅率約為 8%。第四季非GAAP稀釋後每股盈餘高於中點，約0.55美元。

Now moving on to the balance sheet. Inventory increased 4% sequentially and days were 114 in the quarter, relatively flat from third quarter. Disti inventory declined sequentially and exited the year right in line with our target of 6 to 8 weeks. We generated free cash flow of approximately $2.2 billion or 35% of sales over the trailing 12 months. And as of yesterday's closing price, our free cash flow yield is 6.8%.

接下來來看資產負債表。本季庫存較上季成長 4%，庫存週轉天數為 114 天，與第三季基本持平。Disti 庫存較上月下降，年底庫存量正好符合我們 6 至 8 週的目標。過去 12 個月，我們產生了約 22 億美元的自由現金流，佔銷售額的 35%。截至昨日收盤價，我們的自由現金流收益率為 6.8%。

During the quarter, we repaid $225 million of debt and paid $179 million in dividends. And as we outlined in our last earnings call, we have resumed our share repurchase program, now that our leverage is sub-2. As of yesterday, we have purchased nearly 260 million worth of shares.

本季度，我們償還了 2.25 億美元的債務，並支付了 1.79 億美元的股息。正如我們在上次財報電話會議上概述的那樣，由於我們的槓桿率低於 2，我們已經恢復了股票回購計劃。截至昨日，我們已購入價值近2.6億的股票。

CapEx in the fourth quarter was $86 million, and we expect to continue to run at our model of approximately 4% of sales for 2019.

第四季資本支出為 8,600 萬美元，我們預計 2019 年將繼續按照銷售額的 4% 左右的模式運作。

Before I move on to guidance, I want to remind you that in January -- in the January quarter, we will adopt a new rev rec standard, ASC 606, to coincide with the start of our 2019 fiscal year. We are among the last few SEC registrants to do so due to the timing of our fiscal year. We have historically deferred revenue and the related cost for shipments to certain distributors until the distributors resell their products to their customers. Upon adoption of ASC 606, we will recognize revenue upon shipment to our distributor.

在給予指導意見之前，我想提醒大家，在 1 月份（即 1 月份季度），我們將採用新的收入確認標準 ASC 606，以配合我們 2019 財年的開始。由於財政年度的時間安排，我們是最後幾家完成美國證券交易委員會註冊的公司之一。我們歷來都會向某些經銷商出貨的收入和相關成本遞延，直到經銷商將產品轉售給他們的客戶。採用 ASC 606 後，我們將在向經銷商出貨時確認收入。

We plan to provide a historical, quarterly end-market revenue look back under the new standard with our first quarter 2019 earnings release. Meaning, you will see changes in our historical growth rates as they will reflect revenue from shipping into distribution versus shipping out. But for context, during 2018, the change in channel inventory for the year was pretty minimal, as channel inventory increased in the first half and was reduced in the second half of the year. On average, over the past 3 years, channel inventory impacts annual revenue by plus or minus 1%, while quarterly variances could be and have been larger.

我們計劃在 2019 年第一季財報中，根據新標準回顧歷史季度終端市場收入。這意味著，您將看到我們歷史成長率的變化，因為它們將反映出從發貨到分銷管道的收入與從發貨到分銷管道的收入。但作為背景，2018 年全年通路庫存的變化非常小，因為通路庫存上半年增加，下半年減少。過去 3 年，通路庫存平均對年度收入的影響為正負 1%，而季度差異可能更大，而且確實更大。

Now on to guidance, which with the exception of revenue and non-op expenses are also on a non-GAAP basis and exclude the items outlined in today's release. As a reminder, the first quarter of 2018 was a 14-week quarter, so all of my comments on revenue growth and our commentary during the Q&A session will exclude this extra week, so we are normalizing our growth rates to give you a like-for-like comparison.

接下來是業績指引，除收入和非經營性支出外，業績指引也採用非GAAP準則，並且不包括今天發布的公告中列出的項目。提醒一下，2018 年第一季有 14 週，因此我對收入成長的所有評論以及我們在問答環節中的評論都將不包括這額外的一周，以便我們對成長率進行標準化處理，從而為您提供一個可比的比較。

First quarter revenue is expected to be $1.51 billion at the midpoint, on both the old and the new rev rec methodology. To be clear, we are forecasting a midpoint of $1.51 billion on both a sell-in or new ASC 606 standard as well as a sell-through basis because we expect minimal change in channel inventory during the first quarter.

根據舊的和新的營收確認方法，預計第一季營收的中位數為 15.1 億美元。需要明確的是，我們預測，無論是按新增 ASC 606 標準還是按銷售情況計算，中間值均為 15.1 億美元，因為我們預計第一季通路庫存變化不大。

At the midpoint of guidance, we expect total revenue to increase 7% year-over-year on a sell-through basis and we expect our B2B markets of industrial, auto and comms in the aggregate to increase low double-digits year-over-year, led by the communications market. This would represent our eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year revenue growth for our B2B markets.

根據指導意見的中點，我們預計總收入將同比增長 7%（按銷售轉換率計算），我們預計工業、汽車和通訊等 B2B 市場整體將同比增長兩位數（低點），其中通信市場將引領這一增長。這將代表我們B2B市場連續第八個季度實現兩位數年成長的營收。

Under the new rev rec method, year-over-year growth would be approximately 4% at a company level and at high single-digit rate in the B2B markets for the first quarter. We are planning for gross margins to be approximately 70.8, lower sequentially due to the normal shutdowns around the holidays as well as business mix. We're expecting operating expenses to be around $450 million at the midpoint. This is down slightly sequentially and does include some onetime items, so you will not see the usual lift going into Q2.

根據新的收入確認方法，第一季公司層級的年成長率約為 4%，B2B 市場的年成長率將達到較高的個位數。我們預計毛利率約為 70.8%，由於假日期間的正常停工以及業務組合的變化，毛利率將比去年同期下降。我們預計營運費用中位數約為 4.5 億美元。這比上一季略有下降，並且包含一些一次性項目，因此你不會看到第二季度出現通常的增長。

We expect op margins in the first quarter to be approximately 41% and we expect our non-op expenses to be approximately $56 million and our tax rate will be in the range of 14% to 16%. This tax rate is slightly higher than our previous outlook due to new IRS guidance released in September. Based on these inputs, diluted earnings per share, excluding special items, is expected to be $1.28 plus or minus $0.07.

我們預計第一季的營業利潤率約為 41%，非營業支出約為 5,600 萬美元，稅率將在 14% 至 16% 之間。由於美國國稅局9月發布了新的指導意見，這一稅率略高於我們先前的預期。根據這些投入，不計特殊項目，稀釋後每股收益預計為 1.28 美元，正負 0.07 美元。

Before moving on to the Q&A session, I want to inform you that this will be the last quarter we're going to be providing gross margin and OpEx guidance. This will be the only change as we will continue to provide the other items for outlook, including operating margin. This does not change our long-term operating model that we discussed at our Analyst Day of 70% plus gross margins and op margins in the range of 39% to 45%. We are making this transition as it aligns to the way we manage the business; that is, we focus on driving profitable growth and operating margin expansion.

在進入問答環節之前，我想告知大家，這將是我們最後一個季度提供毛利率和營運支出指引。這將是唯一的變化，我們將繼續提供其他展望項目，包括營業利潤率。這不會改變我們在分析師日討論過的長期營運模式，即毛利率超過 70%，營業利潤率在 39% 到 45% 之間。我們進行這項轉型是因為它符合我們的業務管理方式；也就是說，我們專注於推動獲利成長和擴大營業利潤率。

So all in, it was a terrific quarter to cap off a very successful year for ADI. And while we are mindful of the economic uncertainty around us, I will echo Vince's optimism that we enter 2019 equally excited about the opportunities ahead.

總而言之，對於ADI來說，這是一個非常棒的季度，為非常成功的一年畫上了圓滿的句號。儘管我們意識到周遭經濟情勢的不確定性，但我贊同文斯的樂觀態度，認為我們進入 2019 年時，同樣對未來的機會充滿熱情。

And with that, let me turn it over to Mike to lead our Q&A session.

那麼，接下來就交給麥克來主持我們的問答環節吧。

Thanks, Prashanth. Okay. Before we move to Q&A, I want to remind everyone of a couple points. First, we are moving to sell-in accounting starting first quarter '19. And second, the first quarter of 2018 was a 14-week quarter. As such, our commentary around expected growth in the first quarter 2019 will exclude these 2 factors. In short, our growth commentary will be on a 13-week sell-through basis.

謝謝你，Prashanth。好的。在進入問答環節之前，我想提醒大家幾點。首先，我們將從 2019 年第一季開始採用銷售會計法。其次，2018 年第一季有 14 週。因此，我們對 2019 年第一季預期成長的評論將不包括這兩個因素。簡而言之，我們的成長評論將以 13 週的銷售週期為基礎。

Okay. Let's get to our Q&A session. (Operator Instructions) Jennifer, can we have our first question, please?

好的。接下來進入問答環節。（操作員指示）珍妮弗，我們可以問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Tore Svanberg with Stifel.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Tore Svanberg。

The first question is on the industrial business. So obviously, it's very diversified, and I'm just wondering if you could comment a little bit on what your customers are seeing there as far as this slowdown? Are they sort of in a wait-and-see based on what the macro political situation is or are they, perhaps, a little bit more optimistic about '19? Just trying to gauge how your industrial base is feeling right now.

第一個問題是關於工業領域的。顯然，您的業務非常多元化，我想請您談談您的客戶對此經濟放緩有何看法？他們是根據宏觀政治情勢持觀望態度，還是對 2019 年抱持更樂觀的態度？我只是想了解一下你們的工業基礎目前的情況如何。

Yes. Thanks, Tore. The -- well, I think I've talked with quite a few customers, both domestically here in America and internationally over the last quarter, 1.5 quarters, maybe 2 quarters. In the atmosphere of the kind of the macro uncertainty driven by trade war rhetoric and so on and so forth and the impacts of the tariffs, I'd say, generally speaking, customers are remaining optimistic though there is, obviously, concern which is dampening enthusiasm for laying down CapEx and taking a long-term view to demand. So I would say, at this point in time, what we're seeing though is cancellations are at a kind of a normal rate and lead times, for the most part, are pretty normal. So in the industrial market itself, we're seeing pockets of softness. I would say, in the automation part of our business, it's largely softening in China. And we are seeing strength, for example, in the electronic test and measurement side of our business. Obviously, health care has remained strong for the company. And I think aerospace and defense is also an area of continued growth and some good acceleration there over the last quarter or 2, so I think that provides you some color. And from our point of view, Tore, we've obviously been investing heavily from an R&D and customer engagement standpoint over the past -- really, the past decade. So I think for ADI, we're better positioned than we've ever been in that market. It is our #1 focus, I would say, and it's broad, it's deep, it's got many thousands of products, many thousands of customers associated with it. So we're optimistic about our capacity to continue to grow content and to gain share as we have been doing in '18 and beyond.

是的。謝謝你，托雷。嗯，我想我在過去一個季度、一個半季度，或許兩個季度裡，已經和相當多的客戶談過了，包括美國國內的客戶和國際客戶。在貿易戰言論等引發的宏觀不確定性氛圍以及關稅的影響下，我認為，總的來說，客戶仍然保持樂觀，儘管顯然存在擔憂，這抑制了他們進行資本支出和對需求採取長期看法的熱情。所以我覺得，就目前而言，我們看到的是取消訂單的速度基本上正常，而且大部分情況下，交貨時間也相當正常。因此，在工業市場本身，我們看到了一些疲軟的跡象。我認為，就我們業務的自動化部分而言，中國市場的整體情況正在放緩。例如，我們在電子測試和測量業務方面看到了強勁的成長勢頭。顯然，醫療保健業務一直是該公司的強勁成長點。我認為航空航太和國防領域也是持續成長的領域，並且在過去一兩個季度中成長速度明顯加快，所以我認為這可以給你一些參考。從我們的角度來看，Tore，過去十年，我們顯然在研發和客戶互動方面投入了大量資金。所以我認為，對於ADI來說，我們在這個市場上的地位比以往任何時候都要好。可以說，這是我們的首要關注點，它範圍廣泛、深入，涉及成千上萬種產品和成千上萬的客戶。因此，我們對繼續增加內容和擴大市場份額的能力充滿信心，就像我們在 2018 年及以後所做的那樣。

Thank you, Tore. Did you have a follow-up?

謝謝你，托雷。您有後續跟進嗎？

Yes. Vince, that was very helpful. So I had a clarification question. You mentioned now with the synergies between Linear and ADI, I think you've used the word double. I'm just wondering, does that mean the revenue synergies are now up to $2 billion? Or is it -- if you could just clarify that statement.

是的。文斯，這很有幫助。我有一個需要澄清的問題。您剛才提到了Linear和ADI之間的協同效應，我想您用了「雙倍」這個詞。我只是想知道，這是否意味著收入協同效應現在已經達到 20 億美元？或者——如果您能澄清一下這句話的話。

Yes. I think back in '17 when we had our Analyst Day, we were talking, at that point in time, about our visibility and confidence towards $1 billion. So yes, we're well above that now and looking at -- continuing to grow and we've certainly confidence that we've doubled that synergy number over the past year and a bit.

是的。我記得在 2017 年我們舉辦分析師日的時候，我們當時正在討論我們實現 10 億美元目標的可見度和信心。所以，是的，我們現在已經遠遠高於這個數字，並且正在繼續成長，我們當然有信心在過去一年多的時間裡，我們的協同效應數字已經翻了一番。

Yes. I'm going to say -- a bit why we're so confident we can double the growth there at Linear as that pipeline expands.

是的。我想稍微解釋一下，為什麼我們如此有信心隨著產品線的擴展，Linear 的成長能夠翻倍。

Our next question comes from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Vince, just on the comm sector, you had mid-20% year-over-year growth. Last quarter, you just put up almost 30% growth. This quarter, you did highlight some of the drivers there. I'm wondering if you could dissect that growth a little bit. I know that you were really positive about the backlog you had at Hittite now that it was under sort of your control from that M&A long product cycle designs. To what extent is Hittite helping to drive this growth? And I guess, are you at all concerned that some of this growth might be pull-ins from China trying to get these parts before the trade war escalates and potentially not being able to get these parts, just given how important massive MIMO and 5G are. Maybe you can help allay some of those concerns and just give us a little bit more detail there.

Vince，單就通訊產業而言，你們的年增長率就達到了 20% 左右。上個季度，你們實現了近30%的成長。本季度，您確實重點介紹了其中的一些驅動因素。我想請您稍微分析一下這個生長物。我知道你對 Hittite 的積壓工作非常樂觀，因為在併購之後，這些工作在某種程度上都由你掌控，從而解決了產品週期過長的問題。赫梯文明在多大程度上推動了這種成長？我想，您是否擔心，鑑於大規模 MIMO 和 5G 的重要性，中國為了在貿易戰升級之前獲得這些零件而進行的搶購，可能會導致部分增長，但最終可能無法獲得這些零件？或許您可以幫助我們消除一些疑慮，並提供更多細節。

Yes. Thanks, John. Good questions. So let me start with the latter part of your question first. I don't get any sense that there's any form of tension or panic buying by our Chinese customers to get ahead of any tariffs or trade war concerns. Remember as well, what we're seeing now is an accelerated build-out of, I would say, enhanced 4G and moving into the early stages of 5G. That's a multiyear process anyway, no matter what. So what I'm seeing is a good balance between what we see as the increasing demand from the carriers and the -- I would say, the supply from our customers to meet the carrier's demands. When you look at the -- put the whole thing together, we're looking at '19 being another year of double-digit growth. We have, as I said, we've got 4G tailwinds and that's driven by content gains we've been making over the last 3 years, I'd say. Hittite incidentally, just to give you a little bit of a benchmark here, when we inquired Hittite, it was roughly a $270 million trailing 12-month revenue company. The Hittite portion of our business is well over $400 million at this point in time. And it isn't just communications, it's where microwave and those radio frequency technologies are used and aerospace and defense and other parts of the instrumentation industrial market. So I think, when you put the massive MIMO addition to 4G or 5G, as some people call it, and the early stages of 5G, that gives ADI a tremendously increased opportunity value over 4G. And as I said in the prepared remarks, my sense is that we've got a 4x content improvement as 5G begins to ramp up here. So it's -- and that, by the way, doesn't include -- we're not including any specific targets for LT in that number, but there's a huge cross-selling opportunity. We're beginning to go to production with power designs at this point in time. So I think, the tailwinds are strong and ADI's content has grown, our portfolio has never been stronger, so that's what we're seeing. I think it's a share gain story for ADI.

是的。謝謝你，約翰。問得好。那麼，我先來回答你問題的後半部。我絲毫沒有感覺到我們的中國客戶有任何緊張情緒或恐慌性搶購，以應對任何關稅或貿易戰的擔憂。此外，請記住，我們現在看到的是增強型 4G 的加速建設，並邁入 5G 的早期階段。無論如何，這都是一個需要數年時間的過程。因此，我看到的是，承運商不斷增長的需求與我們的客戶為滿足承運商需求而提供的供應之間達到了良好的平衡。綜合所有因素來看，2019 年可望再次實現兩位數成長。正如我所說，我們擁有 4G 的發展勢頭，我認為這主要得益於我們在過去 3 年裡取得的內容成長。順便提一下 Hittite，為了給您一個參考基準，當我們詢問 Hittite 時，它是一家過去 12 個月收入約為 2.7 億美元的公司。目前，我們業務中與赫梯相關的部分已經超過 4 億美元。而且這不僅關乎通信，微波和射頻技術也被應用於航空航太、國防以及儀器工業市場的其他領域。所以我認為，當你把大規模 MIMO 添加到 4G 或 5G（有些人稱之為 5G）以及 5G 的早期階段時，這將使 ADI 相對於 4G 具有巨大的增加的機會價值。正如我在準備好的演講稿中所說，我的感覺是，隨著 5G 在這裡開始普及，我們的內容品質將提高 4 倍。所以——順便說一句，這並不包括——我們沒有在這個數字中包含任何針對長期客戶的具體目標，但存在巨大的交叉銷售機會。目前我們正開始將電源設計投入生產。所以我認為，順風強勁，ADI 的內容不斷增長，我們的投資組合從未如此強大，這就是我們所看到的。我認為這對ADI來說是一個市場佔有率成長的故事。

Thanks, John. Do you have a follow-up?

謝謝你，約翰。您還有後續問題嗎？

Yes. Just quickly, guys. I hate to bring it up because it's such a small percentage of the revenue and the growth drivers, but you have historically just given us some color on the consumer segment and how we should be thinking about that, especially given the different launch times of flagship handsets. How do we think about consumer going into the January quarter?

是的。各位，就簡單說一下。我很不想提起這件事，因為它在收入和成長動力中所佔比例很小，但你過去曾向我們介紹了一些關於消費者細分市場的情況，以及我們應該如何看待這個問題，特別是考慮到旗艦手機不同的發佈時間。我們如何看待消費者在1月季度的表現？

Well, looking into '19, we started the year off a bit stronger given the content that we have in some of the, say, older platforms. All that said, we're still expecting that consumer will decline somewhere between 10%, 20% on the portable side in '18, while the prosumer part of our business, which looks a lot more like a B2B sector, is continuing to perform well for the company. So I think the way to look at this, John, after this year's growth will be determined by essentially new sockets, either what we win or what we lose. That will determine, ultimately, what happens, I think, after '19. But as always, we're optimistic about where we're playing in consumer and we continue to be selective in the areas that we target and we're always seeking to increase diversity of application and customers, so I think that's the snapshot of consumer at this point.

展望 2019 年，鑑於我們在一些較老的平台上擁有的內容，我們年初的開局比較強勁。綜上所述，我們仍預期 2018 年便攜式設備消費市場將下降 10% 至 20%，而我們面向專業用戶的業務（看起來更像是 B2B 領域）則繼續為公司帶來良好的業績。所以我認為，約翰，今年的成長最終將取決於新的市場機會，要嘛我們贏得市場，要嘛我們失去市場。我認為，這最終將決定 2019 年後會發生什麼。但和以往一樣，我們對自身在消費領域的發展前景持樂觀態度，我們將繼續謹慎選擇目標領域，並不斷尋求增加應用和客戶群的多樣性，所以我認為這就是目前消費領域的概況。

John, we're looking for a 7% increase on a sell-through basis for the consolidated company and 12% for B2B, so you should be able to impute the numbers you need for consumer.

約翰，我們希望合併後的公司銷售額成長 7%，B2B 銷售額成長 12%，所以你應該可以推算出消費者所需的數字。

Our next question comes from Craig Hettenbach with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的克雷格·赫滕巴赫。

Vince, can you just expand on the comment around the confidence in automotive returning to kind of high single digits? And then if you're able to frame it, I know there's some A2B programs that may help in the coming years as well as kind of BMS, but just any additional details would help.

Vince，你能否詳細解釋一下關於汽車產業信心指數回升至個位數高點的評論？如果您能提供更詳細的信息，我知道未來幾年可能會有一些 A2B 項目以及 BMS 之類的東西有所幫助，但任何其他細節都會有所幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Craig. Well, first and foremost, cabin electronics, that part of our business has done very well during '18 and we're positioned for more growth in '19, so the growth in that area was double digits in '18. And yes, the A2B application space is growing for the company. We've added this new media transport modality as well that we call C2B. And we're also now getting the benefit of adding LTC silent switcher technology into some of these sockets as well, so we're at the early stages of an operant in our power business there. I think as well, it was well publicized during the year that we had some troubles with our Battery Management Solution technology. But I think we've really turned the corner, particularly in the second half of '18. In the second half, we achieved double-digit growth and we expect '19, also, to be a double-digit growth performer for ADI. So as I mentioned in the prepared remarks as well, we're sampling our next-generation BMS. And we've got some very interesting architectural innovations as well coming on the back of that, that will change the way these systems are designed and implemented in the electrification activity. On the sensing side, again, I've talked about some of this in the prepared remarks across radar. We've got our -- we're sampling our 77-gigahertz image quality radar. We've a very interesting and growing diversified pipeline in the LIDAR sector that combines both LT and ADI mixed-signal technologies. And many customers are starting to use our IMU, inertial management units, in the kind of L3 plus autonomous driving area. So I think we have continued to accelerate during '18 in terms of stabilizing BMS and starting to get it back to a growth trajectory, and a lot of exciting things going on in autonomous VD goals as well. So hopefully, Craig, that frames it up for you.

是的。謝謝你，克雷格。首先，客艙電子產品是我們業務的這一部分，在 2018 年表現非常出色，我們已準備好在 2019 年實現更大的成長，因此該領域在 2018 年實現了兩位數的成長。是的，A2B 應用領域對公司而言正在成長。我們也新增了一種名為 C2B 的媒體傳輸模式。我們現在也開始在一些插座中加入 LTC 靜音開關技術，因此我們在電力業務方面正處於營運的早期階段。我認為，今年早些時候，我們的電池管理解決方案技術出現一些問題也得到了廣泛的宣傳。但我認為我們已經真正扭轉了局面，尤其是在 2018 年下半年。下半年，我們實現了兩位數的成長，我們預計 2019 年 ADI 也將實現兩位數的成長。正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的，我們正在對下一代電池管理系統進行抽樣測試。在此基礎上，我們還將推出一些非常有趣的建築創新，這將改變電氣化活動中這些系統的設計和實施方式。關於感測方面，我在關於雷達的準備發言稿中也談到了一些內容。我們正在對我們的 77 吉赫茲影像品質雷達進行取樣。我們在雷射雷達領域擁有非常有趣且不斷成長的多元化產品線，該產品線結合了LT和ADI混合訊號技術。許多客戶開始在 L3+ 等級自動駕駛領域使用我們的 IMU（慣性管理單元）。所以我認為，在 2018 年，我們在穩定 BMS 並使其恢復成長軌跡方面繼續加速發展，而且在自主 VD 目標方面也發生了很多令人興奮的事情。克雷格，希望這能幫你理清思緒。

Thanks, Craig. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，克雷格。（操作說明）

Our next question is from CJ Muse with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 CJ Muse。

I guess, more of a cyclical macro question. You talked about seeing some softness in China. Curious if you're seeing softness anywhere else, particularly as you think about strong U.S. dollar and potential impact to emerging market demand. Would love to hear your thoughts cyclically where you might be seeing the other pockets of weakness, if at all?

我想，這更多的是一個週期性宏觀問題。你剛才提到在中國看到了一些軟化現象。想知道您是否在其他地方也觀察到疲軟跡象，特別是考慮到強勢美元及其對新興市場需求的潛在影響。很想聽聽您對週期性問題的看法，您認為還有哪些地方可能有弱點？

Yes. Thanks for the question, CJ. So yes, from a geographic perspective, I'm going -- what I'm going to talk about here is based on design in revenue, so what's happening in each region from an innovation design standpoint. I'd say, as we've come out of the year, all markets have increased year-over-year. Growth was led by China. And I'd say, looking at the sequential trends geographically, most markets were slightly up or a little down and no big moves one way or another to report there. Industrial was up year-on-year. It was a little weaker quarter-on-quarter. Automotive was up year-on-year, again, a little quarter -- a little weaker quarter-on-quarter. But we believe that was related primarily to macro effects there, SAR, China, this new testing modality that's being adopted in Europe, so -- but we expect it to come back in the first quarter to our target. And communications across-the-board, all the primary geographies in which -- where strong communications are up very, very big on a year-on-year basis and also sequentially. So -- and that broad-based strength was led by China as well as the EU, particularly in the communications area. So -- but, hopefully, that gives you a sense for the atmosphere on the geographic basis. Prashanth, do you want to add anything?

是的。謝謝你的提問，CJ。所以，從地理角度來看，我要講的是基於收入設計的內容，也就是從創新設計的角度來看，每個地區正在發生的事情。我認為，隨著這一年的結束，所有市場都實現了同比增長。中國引領了經濟成長。從地理上的連續趨勢來看，大多數市場略有上漲或下跌，沒有出現任何大的漲跌趨勢。工業產值年增。與上一季相比略有下滑。汽車行業同比再次小幅增長，但環比略有下降。但我們認為這主要與宏觀經濟因素有關，例如 SAR 疫情、中國疫情以及歐洲正在採用的這種新的檢測方式，因此——但我們預計第一季將恢復到我們的目標水平。在所有主要地區，溝通交流全面加強——這些地區的溝通交流在同比和環比上都取得了非常非常大的成長。因此——這種廣泛的實力是由中國和歐盟引領的，尤其是在通訊領域。所以——但願這能讓你對地理環境有所了解。Prashanth，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

CJ, I would just add that, remember, we think about our geographic revenue based on where activity is designed. So when we think about, from a market standpoint, I mentioned factory auto -- sorry, factory automation was one that we're seeing some softness. Automated test equipment was the other area we were seeing some softness. But outside that, really, the rest of industrial has been staying in growth mode, so that's what's forming our sort of confidence for the Q1 outlook.

CJ，我還要補充一點，記住，當我們考慮地域收入時，會考慮業務活動所進行的地點。所以，從市場角度來看，我剛才提到了工廠自動化——抱歉，是工廠自動化——我們看到這方面出現了一些疲軟。自動化測試設備是我們發現存在一些不足之處的另一個領域。但除此之外，其他工業領域實際上一直保持成長態勢，因此我們對第一季的前景充滿信心。

Our next question is from Mark Lipacis with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自傑富瑞集團的馬克·利帕西斯。

I was wondering if you guys have noticed any shifting of the supply chain manufacturing out of China into other areas and if that is impacting your own business?

我想問各位是否注意到供應鏈製造從中國轉移到其他地區的現象，以及這是否對你們的業務產生了影響？

I don't think there's anything really of note. First off, we're not so impacted by the tariffs, but there are some signs that our customers are trying to work around the cost impact of the tariffs. I think there are some passing on of the cost to end customers, and also a very small amount -- at least from our perspective, I'd say, a very small amount of mitigation by our customers by moving to areas not affected by the tariffs when it comes to manufacturing their products, but I think it's very, very de minimis at this point in time.

我覺得沒什麼特別值得一提的。首先，我們並沒有受到關稅的太大影響，但有一些跡象表明我們的客戶正在試圖規避關稅帶來的成本影響。我認為部分成本會轉嫁給最終用戶，而且從我們的角度來看，用戶透過將產品生產轉移到不受關稅影響的地區來減輕成本的程度非常小——至少從我們的角度來看是這樣，但我認為在目前這個階段，這種程度的減輕是微不足道的。

Mark, I think we're probably more familiar with our specific production and what we're seeing is customers looking at supply chain changes that allow them to maybe avoid staging products in the U.S. that would then get further assembled and have those go directly to other countries where the assembly happens and thereby, avoiding the tariffs.

馬克，我認為我們可能更熟悉我們具體的生產情況，我們看到客戶正在尋求供應鏈的變革，以便避免在美國進行產品分揀和進一步組裝，而是將組裝好的產品直接運往其他國家進行組裝，從而避免關稅。

Our next question is from Ambrish Srivastava with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自BMO的Ambrish Srivastava。

Vince, I just want to make sure I understood your comments about the slowdown. It sounds like you're characterizing it as a near-term uncertainty. You did talk about cancellations. Can you just help us understand what the order rates were doing as you were entering the current quarter? And then more importantly, what are the factory loadings going to look like at ADI? And structurally, the company is a lot more profitable than in the past cycles, just help us understand the playbook if we were to go into a deeper downturn?

文斯，我只是想確認一下我是否理解了你關於經濟放緩的評論。聽起來你把它描述為一種短期內的不確定因素。你確實談到了取消預訂的問題。您能否幫我們了解一下，在進入本季時，訂單轉換率的情況如何？更重要的是，ADI 的工廠裝貨情況會是怎麼樣的呢？從結構上看，該公司目前的獲利能力比以往週期強得多，請問如果經濟再次陷入更深的衰退，公司該如何應對？

Sure. I'll take some of those and Vince, you can add some pieces.

當然。我想要一些，文斯，你可以再添一些。

Yes.

是的。

So let me take factory utilization. Certainly, we're headed into the holiday season, so our factory utilizations normally unaligned a bit for those that are impacted by Thanksgiving and then again for the Christmas-New Year period. So utilizations are coming down, but not necessarily linked to changes in the demand environment beyond our original planning areas. In terms of booking activities, certainly, our industrial business is seeing book-to-bill below parity and it's been a while since we've seen that. But as I mentioned, that we see most of that being heavily weighted from the 2 segments, factory automation and automated test equipment. Order activity has stabilized from where it was. Now I don't think we have the wherewithal to call the bottom here, but I'm just giving you the facts that we saw -- we certainly saw an improvement in October versus what we saw in September.

那麼，我來看看工廠利用率。當然，我們即將進入假期季，因此，受感恩節和聖誕節-新年期間影響的工廠利用率通常會有些偏差。因此，利用率正在下降，但這並不一定與我們最初規劃區域之外的需求環境變化有關。就預訂活動而言，我們的工業業務的預訂出貨比低於正常水平，這種情況已經很久沒有出現了。但正如我所提到的，我們看到大部分成長都來自兩個領域：工廠自動化和自動化測試設備。訂單活動已從先前的水平趨於穩定。現在我認為我們還沒有足夠的能力來預測底部，但我只是把我們看到的事實告訴你們——我們確實看到10月份的情況比9月份有所改善。

Yes. So I think, Ambrish, another -- a little bit of color. So I would say, for the most part, what we're seeing is really a pause rather than any -- we're not seeing cancellations as such. I think it's a pause. It's a level -- it's the macro uncertainty that's causing customers to be a little cautious. Lead times for the company are really normal, and I would say -- as I've just said, cancellations are just normal. And just to give you a little more depth of color on that, so the legacy ADI is well within the normal range of supply chain metrics. In other words, greater than 90% of our portfolio shipping within the normal 4- to 6-week window that we're planning to report. LTE is a little more mixed. We've had some, I would say, tightening of supply. Demand has been strong and supply has been a little tight, but we've been investing aggressively and putting in place new capacity, in fact, over the last couple of quarters, to support not just today's shortfalls, but also to support the future growth that we're expecting and increasingly optimistic about. So the book-to-bill as just -- as Prashanth said, just a little below parity on the B2B side, driven largely by industrial. So -- but I think the book-to-bill that we've given or that we're seeing is very supportive of the guidance that we put out there.

是的。所以我覺得，Ambrish，再加一點色彩吧。所以我覺得，在大多數情況下，我們看到的其實是一種暫停，而不是任何形式的取消。我認為這是一個停頓。這是一種程度上的波動——正是宏觀經濟的不確定性導致消費者有些謹慎。公司的交貨週期非常正常，而且正如我剛才所說，取消訂單也是正常的。為了讓大家對這一點有更深入的了解，傳統的 ADI 指標完全在供應鏈指標的正常範圍內。換句話說，我們產品組合中超過 90% 的產品將在我們計劃報告的正常 4 到 6 週時間內發貨。LTE的情況則比較複雜。我認為，供應方面出現了一些收緊。需求一直很強勁，供應有點緊張，但事實上，在過去的幾個季度裡，我們一直在積極投資並建立新的產能，不僅是為了彌補當前的缺口，也是為了支持我們預期並越來越樂觀的未來成長。因此，正如 Prashanth 所說，B2B 方面的訂單出貨比略低於持平，這主要是由工業領域推動的。所以——但我認為我們已經給出或正在看到的訂單出貨比非常支持我們發布的指導意見。

Our next question is from Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的羅斯·西摩。

A bigger picture question for you, Vince, is I think you said that the guidance would imply the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth in your B2B business. A very impressive track record, for sure. That's -- as I go back in my model, that's the longest stretch of double-digit growth I can find at any point in time. So I guess, 2 points on that. How much of that do you think is company-specific share gains, target investments, et cetera, versus a cyclical uplift? And how do you view the sustainability of the growth rate or even the target growth rate for your B2B segment?

文斯，我想問你一個更宏觀的問題，你之前說過，業績指引意味著你的 B2B 業務將連續第八個季度實現兩位數的同比增長。的確，他的業績記錄非常出色。——根據我的模型，這是我在任何時間點上能找到的最長的兩位數增長期。所以，我猜，這方面我得了2分。您認為其中有多少是公司特有的股價上漲、目標投資等因素，又有多少是週期性上漲？您如何看待貴公司B2B業務的成長率或目標成長率的可持續性？

Yes. There's a lot of very good questions in there, Ross. So I'd say -- I mean, it's very hard to parse out precisely what is market, what is ADI. Clearly, we, as a company, have -- we retooled the entire strategy of the company, 8, 9, 10 years ago to focus very, very heavily on the B2B area. In fact, we're spending today 95% for R&D in the B2B spaces and most of our customer engagement activities as well, of course, are in the B2B areas. So the addition of the added R&D focus on the legacy ADI portfolio in the B2B area, the addition of Hittite and now LTC, where LTC was largely focused on B2B, I think positions the company well. We have been taking share, that I'm sure of, and I believe we will continue to gain share. And of course, we were aided by favorable macro trends, I think, generally speaking. PMIs have been positive for the last several quarters and GDP has been strong. So obviously, the environment is strong, but I think ADI is executing in a more focused, more intense way as well in capturing the opportunity. So we believe, again, that B2B will increase within our -- I think a more moderated growth range. We've said that, for the long term, that if we can grow our B2B business, kind of 2x to 3x GDP, we would be content on an ongoing basis. And that's my sense for '19 as well, barring any macro cataclysm that -- that's what we're going to see again in the -- we're going to see that kind of growth rate in the coming year.

是的。羅斯，這裡面有很多非常好的問題。所以我想說──我的意思是，很難準確地區分什麼是市場，什麼是ADI。顯然，作為一家公司，我們在 8、9、10 年前就對公司的整個策略進行了調整，非常非常重視 B2B 領域。事實上，我們目前 95% 的研發投入都用於 B2B 領域，當然，我們的大部分客戶互動活動也都在 B2B 領域。因此，該公司在 B2B 領域對原有 ADI 產品組合的研發投入增加，以及 Hittite 和 LTC 的加入（LTC 主要專注於 B2B），我認為這使公司處於有利地位。可以肯定的是，我們一直在擴大市場份額，我相信我們還會繼續擴大市場份額。當然，總的來說，我認為我們也受益於有利的宏觀趨勢。過去幾季採購經理人指數（PMI）一直維持正值，國內生產毛額（GDP）也表現強勁。顯然，市場環境很強勁，但我認為 ADI 在抓住機會方面也採取了更專注、更積極的方式。因此，我們再次相信，B2B業務將在我們預期的範圍內成長——我認為是一個更為溫和的成長範圍。我們曾說過，從長遠來看，如果我們的 B2B 業務能夠成長到 GDP 的 2 到 3 倍，我們就會一直感到滿意。我對 2019 年的預期也是如此，除非發生任何宏觀災難——我們將在未來一年再次看到這種成長率。

And our final question comes from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

最後一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的維韋克·阿亞。

Vince, just a question on the competitive landscape. You mentioned massive MIMO is the strong area of growth for you. Xilink has also been talking about their RF SoC product. I'm wondering how do you see the competitive landscape shaping up and what's your visibility in design wins on next-gen 4G and then 5G?

文斯，我有個關於競爭格局的問題。您提到大規模 MIMO 是貴公司成長強勁的領域。Xilink 也一直在談論他們的射頻 SoC 產品。我想知道您如何看待競爭格局的發展，以及您在下一代 4G 和 5G 設計專案中的成功率如何？

Yes. So I think, first off, there are many, many solution variants out there when -- between the antenna and the bit streams, so to speak. And there's -- we have the strongest portfolio of technologies from -- right from the antenna down into the bit stream area. So as I said earlier, as we move into the 5G, the early stages of 5G here, we're looking at potentially 4x the content availability compared to the classical 4G that we've been part of over the last 5, 7 years. And when we get into the millimeter wave side of things, the -- we have, again, we've got the broadest portfolio. We can architect in a very flexible way to all the various customer needs. So as 5G millimeter wave comes in, we're looking at potential gains of 8, 10 plus in terms of potential content just given the channel count on the radio transceivers which, by the way, is where most of the innovation has taken place in these 5G systems, at least, until they virtualize in the early '20s or so. So there's -- there are kind of 3 or 4 major building blocks in these base stations these days. There's the classical transceiver, there's the massive MIMO addition, there's all this power technology that we can bring to bear now as well for our customers. And then there's the digital baseband, the digital front-end. And we're innovating not just in the analog space, but we're also pushing the boundaries incidentally on the digital side. And those boundaries, they blur, they shift, they ebb and they flow over multiple generations. But in our software-defined transceivers, for example, we've taken a significant amount of digital content and combined it with our converter technologies and our radio interface capabilities and dramatically reduce the footprint of the radio and cut the power levels down as well. So those are all important answers to very, very critical problems that our customers have. So my sense is, over the next, say, 5 years until we get into millimeter wave, we're looking at a potential content increase of 3x to 4x, and then it's a question of how many radios deploy. And -- but we're very, very well positioned from the content and architectural coverage standpoint.

是的。所以我認為，首先，在天線和位元流之間，有很多很多解決方案可供選擇。而且，我們擁有最強大的技術組合，涵蓋從天線到比特流的各個領域。正如我之前所說，隨著我們邁入 5G 時代，目前 5G 還處於早期階段，與過去 5 到 7 年我們所經歷的傳統 4G 相比，我們有望獲得 4 倍的內容可用性。當我們談到毫米波領域時，我們再次擁有最廣泛的產品組合。我們可以根據客戶的各種需求，以非常靈活的方式進行架構設計。隨著 5G 毫米波的到來，我們看到，僅就無線收發器的頻道數量而言，潛在內容就有 8、10 倍以上的成長。順便說一句，這些 5G 系統的大部分創新都發生在這裡，至少在它們在 2020 年代初期實現虛擬化之前是如此。所以，如今的基地台大概有三、四個主要組成部分。有傳統的收發器，有大規模的 MIMO 技術，還有所有這些強大的技術，我們現在都可以為我們的客戶帶來這些技術。然後還有數位基頻和數位前端。我們不僅在類比領域進行創新，在數位領域也順帶突破了界限。而這些界限，它們會變得模糊，會發生變化，會在幾個世代的時間裡潮起潮落。例如，在我們的軟體定義收發器中，我們採用了大量的數位內容，並將其與我們的轉換器技術和無線電介面功能結合，從而大幅縮小了無線電的體積，並降低了功率等級。以上這些都是針對我們客戶遇到的非常關鍵問題的重要解答。所以我的感覺是，在接下來的大約 5 年裡，直到我們進入毫米波時代，內容可能會增加 3 到 4 倍，然後問題就變成了部署多少無線電設備。而且——但從內容和架構覆蓋範圍的角度來看，我們處於非常非常有利的地位。

Okay. Thank you, Vivek. And thank you, everyone, for joining us this morning. A copy of the transcript will be available on our website and all available reconciliations and additional information can also be found at the quarterly results section of our website. We look forward to seeing you this quarter at Credit Suisse conference and the BMO conference in the coming weeks, and thanks for joining us. Have a great Thanksgiving.

好的。謝謝你，維韋克。謝謝大家今天早上收看我們的節目。成績單副本將在我們的網站上提供，所有可用的核對結果和補充資訊也可以在我們網站的季度業績部分找到。我們期待在本季的瑞士信貸會議和接下來幾週的BMO會議上見到您，並感謝您的參與。祝你感恩節快樂。

This concludes today's Analog Devices conference call. You may now disconnect.

今天的Analog Devices電話會議到此結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。