亞德諾半導體 (ADI) 2001 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Analog Devices second quarter earnings release conference call. All participants will be able to listen only until the question and answer portion of the call. Today's call is being recorded. Those with objections may disconnect. At this time, it is my pleasure to introduce our conference moderator, Mr. Jim Fishbeck, Director of Corporate Communications. Mr. Fishbeck you may begin.

歡迎參加 Analog Devices 第二季財報發布電話會議。所有參與者只能收聽電話的問答部分。今天的通話正在錄音。如有異議者可斷開連接。這次，我很高興向大家介紹我們的會議主持人，企業傳訊總監 Jim Fishbeck 先生。菲什貝克先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you. Hello everyone. This is Jim Fishbeck, Director of Corporate Communications of Analog. Welcome to our second quarter earnings release conference call. If you don't have the release that we put out yesterday, you can get it by visiting the investor relation sites at our web www.analog.com and clicking on Financial Releases, or you can also have it faxed to you for free by calling 800-758-5804. You'll be asked for our company code, which is 054-550. Once again that's 800-758-5804, company code 054-550. This conference call is also being broadcast live on the internet as a web cast, so anyone with RealPlayer software can tune into the call today by visiting the ADI Investor Relations website and clicking on the words Financial Release shown next to the microphone icon. Participating in today's call are Jerry Fishman, President and CEO; Joe McDonough, Vice President for Finance; Brian McAloon, Group Vice President for DSP Products; Robbie McAdam, Vice President of our Analog Products; and Russ Johnsen, Vice President of Strategic Business Development. As always, we will open with the opening comments from Mr. Fishman and then devote the rest of the call to answering your questions, those from the dial-in analyst participants. Our analyst participants can press '*1' on their telephone at anytime, beginning now, to ask a question during the first round. We'll poll for questions in the same order that we receive them. Please do not press '*1' more than once during the first round. If you press '*1' to ask a question and wish to cancel your request before we call you, you can do so by pressing '*2'. I would like to point out that under the provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, this conference call will include forward-looking statements including statements regarding revenues and operating margins that are based on our current expectations, belief, assumptions, and estimates.

謝謝。大家好。我是 Jim Fishbeck，Analog 企業傳播總監。歡迎參加我們的第二季財報發布電話會議。如果您沒有我們昨天發布的新聞稿，您可以訪問我們網站www.analog.com 上的投資者關係網站並點擊財務新聞稿來獲取該新聞稿，或者您也可以透過以下方式免費將其傳真給您：請致電 800-758-5804。系統會要求您提供我們的公司代碼，即 054-550。再次撥打 800-758-5804，公司代碼 054-550。此次電話會議還在互聯網上以網絡廣播的形式進行現場直播，因此任何擁有RealPlayer 軟體的人都可以通過訪問ADI 投資者關係網站並單擊麥克風圖標旁邊顯示的財務發布字樣來收聽今天的電話會議。參加今天電話會議的有總裁兼執行長 Jerry Fishman； Joe McDonough，財務副總裁； Brian McAloon，DSP 產品集團副總裁； Robbie McAdam，我們的模擬產品副總裁；以及策略業務發展副總裁 Russ Johnsen。像往常一樣，我們將以菲什曼先生的開場評論開始，然後用剩下的時間來回答你們的問題，即來自撥入分析師參與者的問題。從現在開始，我們的分析師參與者可以隨時按電話上的「*1」在第一輪中提問。我們將按照收到問題的順序進行投票。在第一輪請不要多次按“*1”。如果您按“*1”提問並希望在我們打電話給您之前取消您的請求，您可以按“*2”來實現。我想指出的是，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》的規定，本次電話會議將包含前瞻性陳述，包括基於我們當前的預期、信念、假設和估計的有關收入和營業利潤的陳述。

These statements are not guarantees of future involvement and they do involve certain risks and uncertainties. These risks could include reversal or continued slowdown in the markets that we serve and other factors. The other risk factors, which could affect our future operating results, are described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K that's filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We're now ready for Mr. Fishman's opening comments. Jerry.

這些陳述並不是未來參與的保證，它們確實涉及某些風險和不確定性。這些風險可能包括我們所服務的市場的逆轉或持續放緩以及其他因素。我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的最新 10-K 表格年度報告中描述了可能影響我們未來經營績效的其他風險因素。我們現在準備好等待菲什曼先生的開場評論。傑瑞。

Well, good afternoon, and welcome to ADI's Q2 conference call. During this call, we'll provide some thoughts on what's going on in the industry, some details on our Q2 results, as well as our best sense of what we could expect for the balance of this year. First, some overall 60,000 feet perspective on what's going on in the industry; we all know that business conditions turned pretty ugly about 6 months ago and it remains ugly through our Q2. There are two things basically that are causing this unprecedented decline. First, the semiconductor industry is reacting to the overheated environment of 2000 when industry revenues grew by 38% against the secular average growth rate of 17% for year for the past 40 years. Over this period, every year the industry grew by more than two times the average growth rate, the next year was sequentially down. So a portion of the issue this year is simply absorbing the inventory that was built in virtually every market segment last year. No great real surprises here, but unlike many previous supply-driven cycles, this time we're being buffeted by weakness in many of the end markets that have driven much of the semiconductor industry's growth for the past 5 years. Personal computers, which have historically consumed 50% of what semiconductors produced or almost $100 billion in revenue value last year, are experiencing a long-term decline in the growth rate of units, as well as severe price declines. Communications products, which have enjoyed a very strong secular growth curve, are temporarily being affected by product cycle issues, which I'm going to make some comments on a bit later in my opening remarks.

下午好，歡迎參加 ADI 第二季電話會議。在這次電話會議中，我們將提供一些關於行業正在發生的事情的想法，一些關於我們第二季度業績的細節，以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期的最佳感覺。首先，從 60,000 英尺的角度全面了解產業正在發生的事情；我們都知道，大約 6 個月前，商業狀況變得相當糟糕，並且在第二季仍然如此。基本上有兩件事導致了這種前所未有的下降。首先，半導體產業正在對2000年的過熱環境做出反應，當時產業收入成長了38%，而過去40年的長期平均成長率為17%。在此期間，該行業每年的成長速度都是平均成長率的兩倍以上，隔年則逐年下降。因此，今年發行的一部分只是吸收去年幾乎每個細分市場建立的庫存。這裡並沒有什麼太大的真正驚喜，但與之前的許多供應驅動週期不同，這次我們受到許多終端市場疲軟的打擊，而這些終端市場在過去五年中推動了半導體行業的成長。個人電腦歷來消耗了半導體產量的 50%，去年的營收價值接近 1,000 億美元，但目前其銷售成長率正在長期下降，而且價格也嚴重下跌。長期成長曲線非常強勁的通訊產品暫時受到產品週期問題的影響，我將在稍後的開場白中對此發表一些評論。

Consumer products have been affected by decreasing consumer confidence in most economies around the world. The combination of excess supply and low-end market demand will likely cause the year 2000, for the industry, to decline by a record 15% to 20% from the year 2000, which would make it the single largest decline year-to-year in our database. Of course, even in this environment, there'll be a wide discrepancy in performance of semiconductor companies based on the product strategies they have and the fixed cost structures that they built in. And I'll take about this a little bit later also in my opening comments. Revenues for our second quarter totaled $601 million, up 4% from the same period last year, but down 22% sequentially from last quarter. Pro forma earnings per share were ¢31, and these results are in line with the revised guidance that we provided in April. Our analog product revenues were up 11% year over year, but down 20% sequentially as deteriorating market conditions impacted, finally, our analog business. This is the first sequential revenue decline for our analog products in the cycle and the most precipitous decline in our recent memory. Our DSP revenues were down by 18% year-over-year and also 30% sequentially. Gross margins remained strong at 57%, down only slightly from last quarter, despite a reduction in production rates and booking over $20 million of inventory reserves. Clearly, we're benefiting as our revenue mix shifts more to our much higher gross margin analog products.

全球大多數經濟體的消費品都受到消費者信心下降的影響。供給過剩和低端市場需求的結合很可能導致2000年該行業比2000年下降創紀錄的15%至20%，這將使其成為單次最大的同比下降在我們的資料庫中。當然，即使在這種環境下，根據半導體公司的產品策略和內建的固定成本結構，半導體公司的業績也會有很大差異。稍後我也會在我的開場白。第二季營收總計 6.01 億美元，年增 4%，但季減 22%。預計每股收益為 31 歐元，這些結果與我們 4 月提供的修訂後指引一致。我們的模擬產品收入年增 11%，但由於不斷惡化的市場狀況最終影響了我們的模擬業務，環比下降了 20%。這是我們的模擬產品在這個週期中首次連續收入下降，也是我們近期記憶中最急劇的下降。我們的 DSP 收入年減 18%，季減 30%。儘管生產力下降並預訂了超過 2000 萬美元的庫存儲備，但毛利率仍保持在 57% 的強勁水平，僅比上季略有下降。顯然，隨著我們的收入結構更多地轉向毛利率更高的模擬產品，我們正在受益。

Inventories have been tightly controlled and actually declined $38 million from last quarter. Operating expenses declined 4% from last quarter, as we continue to constrain expenses all over the company. As a result, operating profits totaled $144 million or approximately 24% of sales. Our balance sheet continued to strengthen during Q2. Cash increased by $159 million to now over $2.5 billion, and inventories and accounts receivable both decreased significantly in dollars. I'd now like to provide a bit more detail on both our analog and our DSP businesses. First, the analog business, which now represents just under 80% of our total revenues. As I mentioned earlier, our analog business was more severely impacted by industry conditions than we had predicted last quarter, although in line with what we communicated in April. Most of the decline in our analog business was in our largest communications, automatic test equipment, and contract-manufacturing customers who were responding to excess inventories and very uncertain end demands. We also experienced some weakening with industrial OEM customers, for the first time in the cycle, although much of the declines in industrial customers were in the communication segment of our industrial customer base. Orders from PC customers showed some strength late in the quarter. Our distribution business remained relatively healthy and was approximately flat to Q1 levels.

庫存受到嚴格控制，實際上比上個季度減少了 3800 萬美元。由於我們繼續限制整個公司的開支，營運開支比上季下降了 4%。結果，營業利潤總計 1.44 億美元，約佔銷售額的 24%。我們的資產負債表在第二季持續增強。現金增加了 1.59 億美元，目前已超過 25 億美元，而以美元計算的存貨和應收帳款均大幅減少。我現在想提供有關我們的模擬和 DSP 業務的更多詳細資訊。首先是模擬業務，目前該業務占我們總收入的近 80%。正如我之前提到的，我們的模擬業務受到行業狀況的影響比我們上季度的預測更為嚴重，儘管與我們 4 月傳達的情況一致。我們模擬業務的下滑主要來自於我們最大的通訊、自動測試設備和合約製造客戶，這些客戶正在應對庫存過剩和非常不確定的最終需求。儘管工業客戶的下降大部分來自工業客戶群的通訊領域，但我們的工業 OEM 客戶也出現了一些疲軟，這是週期中的首次。本季末來自個人電腦客戶的訂單顯示出一定的強勁勢頭。我們的分銷業務保持相對健康，與第一季的水平大致持平。

Interestingly, this trend by channel is exactly opposite from what we saw in Q1 where our analog OEM sales were up 10% sequentially, and distri sell-through declined by 9% sequentially, but this pattern is very typical in most downturns where distribution inventories are held under tight control. Clearly, a portion of last year's 70% growth in ADI's analog products was the result of over ordering by OEMs, fueled by product shortages, and of course, over-exuberance in the end markets. While all market segments in our analog business were down sequentially, communications and automatic test equipment products were down 28% and 67% sequentially, respectively, while the PC sector, the consumer sector, and the industrial sector were much, much less affected. Based on our current backlog and moderate expectations for churns business, we're planning for our analog business to decline an additional 5% to 10% in our Q3. Although it's very difficult to be precise in this environment, this appears to be a reasonable expectation given the magnitude of the backlog declines that we've already absorbed from our OEM customers, the stability of our distri business, some pickup from PC OEMs, and most importantly, our continuously strengthening competitive position. Also, it's reasonable to expect increasing churns business since lead times for most products are short, and customers are waiting till the last minute to order. On a positive note, we have seen some improvement in our churns business in our analog product segment in Q2.

有趣的是，這種通路趨勢與我們在第一季看到的情況完全相反，當時我們的模擬OEM 銷售額環比增長了10%，分銷銷售量環比下降了9%，但這種模式在大多數經濟低迷時期非常典型，分銷庫存處於低迷狀態。嚴格控制。顯然，去年ADI模擬產品70%的成長有一部分是由於原始設備製造商過度訂購、產品短缺以及終端市場過度繁榮所造成的。雖然我們模擬業務的所有細分市場均出現環比下降，但通訊和自動測試設備產品環比分別下降了 28% 和 67%，而 PC 領域、消費領域和工業領域受到的影響要小得多。根據我們目前的積壓和對流失業務的適度預期，我們計劃模擬業務在第三季再下降 5% 到 10%。儘管在這種環境下很難做到準確，但這似乎是一個合理的預期，因為我們已經從 OEM 客戶那裡吸收了積壓訂單下降的幅度、我們分銷業務的穩定性、PC OEM 的一些回升以及最重要的是，我們的競爭地位不斷增強。此外，由於大多數產品的交貨時間都很短，而且客戶會等到最後一刻才能訂購，因此可以合理地預期客戶流失量會增加。從積極的方面來看，我們在第二季的模擬產品領域看到了客戶流失業務的一些改善。

Currently, we expect Q3 to be the trough quarter for our analog business with some growth resuming hopefully by yearend. Our DSP business declined again sequentially in Q2 primarily as a result of significant cancellations and backlog adjustments from telecommunications customers and North American contract manufacturers. It's important to remember that last year our DSP revenues grew by well over 100% in a market where the secular growth rate is 25% to 30% per year. While some of ADI's strength last year was a result of continuing market share gains, clearly, a portion was inventory buildup at notable OEMs. As we have reported, the DSL market in the US remains profoundly weak with excess inventory at many US customers for reasons that have been well commented on previously. Internationally, DSL business remained stable, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia. We have a solid customer base in DSL and our roadmap for both the central office and customer premises is extremely competitive. Just today, we announced that Samsung has once again selected ADI's DSL chipsets for a new round of deployment being undertaken by Korea Telecom. This deployment, which will include both central office and customer premises equipment, is scheduled for the second half of this year. We're positioned to do quite well in this market when industry conditions sort themselves out, hopefully later this year. The wireless handset market remains weak, as the handset replacement rate cycle has now extended to well over 2 years, as existing subscribers wait for new contents and new services at reasonable tariff rates.

目前，我們預計第三季將是我們模擬業務的低谷季度，預計在年底前恢復一些成長。我們的 DSP 業務在第二季度再次下滑，主要是由於電信客戶和北美合約製造商的大量取消訂單和積壓訂單調整。重要的是要記住，去年我們的 DSP 收入在長期增長率為每年 25% 至 30% 的市場中增長了 100% 以上。雖然ADI去年的實力部分歸功於市場份額的持續成長，但顯然，其中一部分是著名原始設備製造商的庫存累積所致。正如我們所報導的，美國 DSL 市場仍然極度疲軟，許多美國客戶的庫存過剩，其原因之前已得到充分評論。國際上，DSL業務保持穩定，特別是在歐洲和東南亞。我們在 DSL 領域擁有堅實的客戶群，我們的中心局和客戶端路線圖都極具競爭力。就在今天，我們宣布三星再次選擇 ADI 的 DSL 晶片組用於韓國電信正在進行的新一輪部署。此次部署計劃於今年下半年進行，其中包括中央辦公室和客戶端設備。當行業狀況自行解決時（希望在今年晚些時候），我們將在這個市場上做得很好。無線手機市場仍然疲軟，因為手機更換週期現已延長至兩年多，而現有用戶正在以合理的資費等待新內容和新服務。

Since most new data services are either currently behind schedule or too expensive, the high-end handset market continues to under-perform market expectations. Even top-tier cell phone manufacturers are under serious financial pressure and are trying to liquidate inventory and shift design and manufacturing to Southeast Asia. Today, we announced that Quanta in Taiwan has passed full GSM Type approval using ADI's Othello and SoftFone chipsets for a new triple-band GSM cellular phone. This phone is fully compliant and ready for GPRS. We believe that this is the first full type approval for a handset using a highly integrated and volume manufactured direct-conversion radio. As design and manufacturing of cellular handsets continues its migration to Asia, much like it did for PCs in the 90s, Quanta is well positioned to supply this technology to several tier 1 handset manufacturers, as well as leading PC OEMs. While handset chipsets today represent a very diminished portion of our sales, we now have some important design wins that could contribute materially to our growth in 2002 and beyond. Our base station business has also weakened in line with reduced industry forecast for handsets and the delay of many new data-oriented services. Nevertheless, here too, we're very extremely well positioned in base stations with both analog and DSP technology to participate as industry conditions recover.

由於大多數新數據服務目前要么落後於計劃，要么過於昂貴，高端手機市場的表現繼續低於市場預期。即使是頂級手機製造商也面臨嚴重的財務壓力，並試圖清理庫存並將設計和製造轉移到東南亞。今天，我們宣布台灣廣達公司的新型三頻 GSM 蜂窩電話採用 ADI 的 Othello 和 SoftFone 晶片組，已通過全面的 GSM 型式認證。該電話完全相容並可用於 GPRS。我們相信，這是使用高度整合和大量生產的直接轉換無線電的手機的首次全面型式認證。隨著蜂窩手機的設計和製造繼續向亞洲轉移，就像 90 年代 PC 的情況一樣，廣達已準備好向多家一級手機製造商以及領先的 PC OEM 提供這項技術。雖然現在手機晶片組在我們銷售額中所佔的比例已經大大減少，但我們現在已經取得了一些重要的設計勝利，這些設計可能會對我們 2002 年及以後的成長作出重大貢獻。由於手機產業預測的降低以及許多新的數據導向服務的延遲，我們的基地台業務也有所減弱。然而，在這方面，我們在採用模擬和 DSP 技術的基地台方面也處於非常有利的位置，可以隨著產業狀況的復甦而參與其中。

The wireless appliance and, in particular the PDA market, continues to grow, albeit at lower than forecasted rates. Our wireless chipsets and other analog and mix signal products have won major designs in this segment and should be a good source of growth for us next year. And as I mentioned earlier, we've noted some strength in the laptop PC market, as inventories have declined, but we're not yet sure if this is just an inventory replenishment or truly strengthening demand. Nevertheless, as PC demand improves, we have very high market share in both power management and audio functions in PCs. Based on the indications from our largest customers and our strong competitive position, we would expect a much smaller sequential decline or stabilization of our DSP business in Q3 followed by a resumption of some growth later this year. Despite all the doom and gloom, the designing rates of our products in all of the DSP end markets are extremely strong. In the longer term, this business is poised for a strong recovery and continuing gains in market share when overall market conditions improve. One particularly bright spot during Q2 was our continuing progress in the commercialization of micromachine technology aimed at optical applications. During Q2, we received a multi-million dollar commitment for production of optical MEMS products from a leading communications customer after demonstrating vastly superior functionality and density, relative to any existing solution.

無線設備，特別是 PDA 市場，繼續成長，儘管成長速度低於預期。我們的無線晶片組以及其他類比和混合訊號產品已經贏得了該領域的主要設計，應該成為我們明年成長的良好來源。正如我之前提到的，我們注意到筆記型電腦市場出現了一些強勢，因為庫存有所下降，但我們還不確定這只是庫存補充還是真正的需求加強。儘管如此，隨著PC需求的改善，我們在PC的電源管理和音訊功能方面都擁有非常高的市場份額。根據我們最大客戶的跡象和我們強大的競爭地位，我們預計第三季 DSP 業務的環比下降幅度要小得多或穩定，然後在今年稍後恢復一些成長。儘管前景黯淡，但我們的產品在所有 DSP 終端市場的設計率都非常強勁。從長遠來看，當整體市場狀況改善時，該業務預計將強勁復甦並持續擴大市場份額。第二季的一個特別亮點是我們在針對光學應用的微機械技術商業化方面的持續進展。在第二季度，我們展示了相對於任何現有解決方案而言極其優越的功能和密度後，從一家領先的通訊客戶處獲得了數百萬美元的光學 MEMS 產品生產承諾。

Further, we have now demonstrated working mirrors on a new integrated micromachine process that combines MEMS structures with 5 volt and 200 volt devices on a single chip. We're now in development and producing optical MEMS products in both the long-haul and Metro spaces for high and low port switching engines, filters, and tunable lasers. MEMS technology, combined with our high-performance analog and DSP technology, holds the promise of significant breakthroughs in performance and density for emerging optical applications. Over time, this could become a large business for ADI even at our current size. Overall, our current operating assumption is that we will see continuing weakness in our business through our Q3 and stabilization and hopefully a resumption of some growth in our Q4. While this is our current operating assumption, we still only have anecdotal evidence to support this assumption. Specifically, we're planning for our Q3 revenues to decline approximately 10% from Q2 levels, primarily driven by the amount of fill business that we receive during the quarter. We're encouraged by the stabilization of our distri business, the declining rate of cancellations from OEM customers, and shipments to our largest customers that we believe are well below their consumption rates. But of course, we'll learn more in Q3 about what to expect going forward given the low visibility in the end markets. We would expect modest reductions in gross margin in Q3 as we continue to adjust production levels for current market conditions. We're planning summer shutdown periods in Q3 in our internal fabs to keep inventory in line with our sales expectations.

此外，我們現在還展示了新型整合微機械製程上的工作鏡，該製程將 MEMS 結構與 5 伏特和 200 伏特設備結合在一個晶片上。我們現在正在開發和生產長途和城域空間中的光學 MEMS 產品，用於高端口和低端口交換引擎、濾波器和可調諧雷射。 MEMS 技術與我們的高性能模擬和 DSP 技術相結合，有望在新興光學應用的性能和密度方面取得重大突破。隨著時間的推移，即使以我們目前的規模，這也可能成為 ADI 的一項大業務。總體而言，我們目前的營運假設是，我們的業務將在第三季度持續疲軟並趨於穩定，並希望在第四季度恢復一些成長。雖然這是我們目前的營運假設，但我們仍然只有軼事證據來支持這個假設。具體來說，我們計劃第三季度的收入比第二季度的水平下降約 10%，這主要是由於我們在本季度收到的灌裝業務量所致。我們的分銷業務趨於穩定，OEM 客戶的取消訂單率不斷下降，而且我們認為向最大客戶的發貨量遠低於他們的消費率，這令我們深受鼓舞。但當然，鑑於終端市場的可見度較低，我們將在第三季了解更多有關未來預期的資訊。隨著我們繼續根據當前市場狀況調整生產水平，我們預計第三季毛利率將小幅下降。我們計劃在第三季關閉我們內部工廠的夏季停產期，以保持庫存符合我們的銷售預期。

We expect gross margins to be approximately 55% to 56% in Q3. We also see opportunities to use this cycle to continue to reduce our manufacturing infrastructure costs by completing our program to move all our test operations offshore and consolidating manufacturing operations worldwide. This may result in some one-time costs as decisions are finalized, but the payback from these moves could be extraordinary as our revenues begin to grow again. We are continuing to constrain expenses throughout the company. We're currently planning for operating expenses to decline by an additional 5% or $10 million in Q3. This would produce operating margins in the low 20% area depending on, of course, our actual revenue levels. Earnings would be in the 23% to 25% range at the sales levels. While we are, of course, cautious in the near term, we remain extremely enthusiastic about our long-term prospects. Despite all the chaos in 2001, our analog revenues will likely grow slightly this year after a 70% increase last year. Just this week, Dataquest reported significant market share gains for ADI's converter and amplifier products during the year 2000. These product categories now comprise over 50% of our current revenues. Our DSP revenues could decline by approximately 30% this year, after 120% growth last year.

我們預計第三季毛利率約為 55% 至 56%。我們也看到了利用這個週期繼續降低製造基礎設施成本的機會，透過完成我們將所有測試業務轉移到海外並整合全球製造業務的計劃。當決策最終確定時，這可能會導致一些一次性成本，但隨著我們的收入開始再次增長，這些舉措的回報可能是非凡的。我們將繼續限制整個公司的開支。我們目前計劃第三季的營運費用再下降 5%，即 1,000 萬美元。當然，這將產生 20% 以下的營業利潤，具體取決於我們的實際收入水平。以銷售水準計算，獲利將在 23% 至 25% 範圍內。當然，儘管我們對短期持謹慎態度，但我們對長期前景仍然充滿熱情。儘管 2001 年發生了許多混亂，我們的模擬收入今年可能會在去年增長 70% 後略有增長。就在本週，Dataquest 報告稱，2000 年 ADI 轉換器和放大器產品的市場份額大幅增長。這些產品類別目前占我們目前收入的 50% 以上。去年我們的 DSP 收入成長了 120%，今年可能會下降約 30%。

In total, our revenues for 2001 should be 65% to 70% higher than in 1999, and our earnings will have more than doubled. This would be an accomplishment that we believe few semiconductors companies could claim. We believe we have the right products in the right spaces, with the right technology, and we're continuing to execute our development programs extremely well. While our levels of profitability have, of course, declined this year from the peak levels of FY 2000, we're positioning the company to gain strong operating leverage as conditions improve and are now higher than model R&D and SMG&A ratios return to more normal levels. We have reacted quickly to reduce inventory exposure and operating expenses while preserving the most important technology program that will fuel our growth as the cycle turns. It remains our goal to keep our trough margins in this cycle at or above the 20% peak margins of the last cycle. This goal is realistic if conditions do not deteriorate further after our Q3. This is really made possible by a few factors. First, our high performance analog business, now almost 80% of our sales, is just a great business. It has one of the highest secular growth rates in the semiconductor industry and outperforms in both up and down cycles. Average selling prices are stable given the high proprietary content of our products, relatively long product lifecycles reduce inventory exposure, and capacity can be added and modulated in much smaller increments compared to digital products. Second, our DSP business, while more volatile given the more concentrated market and customer base, has all its manufacturing costs variable with volume.

總的來說，我們2001年的營收將比1999年增加65%到70%，我們的收益將增加一倍以上。我們相信很少有半導體公司能夠達到這樣的成就。我們相信，我們在正確的領域擁有正確的產品，採用正確的技術，並且我們將繼續出色地執行我們的開發計劃。當然，雖然今年我們的獲利水準較2000 財年的峰值水準有所下降，但隨著情況的改善，我們將公司定位為獲得強大的營運槓桿，並且現在高於模型研發和SMG&A 比率返回到更正常的水平。我們迅速做出反應，減少庫存風險和營運費用，同時保留最重要的技術計劃，這些計劃將在周期轉變時推動我們的成長。我們的目標仍然是保持本週期的低谷利潤率等於或高於上一週期 20% 的峰值利潤率。如果第三季之後情況沒有進一步惡化，那麼這個目標是現實的。這確實是由幾個因素促成的。首先，我們的高效能模擬業務目前幾乎占我們銷售額的 80%，是一項偉大的業務。它是半導體行業中長期成長率最高的公司之一，並且在上升和下降週期中都表現出色。鑑於我們產品的高專有含量，平均銷售價格穩定，相對較長的產品生命週期減少了庫存風險，並且與數位產品相比，可以以更小的增量增加和調整容量。其次，我們的 DSP 業務雖然由於市場和客戶群更加集中而波動性更大，但其所有製造成本都隨著產量而變化。

At the first signs of trouble, we were able to severely constrain external production to avoid excess inventory. Our outsourcing strategy for these products provides significant earnings stability relative to competitors who were carrying high infrastructure costs in highly cyclical businesses. And lastly, as a company, we have worked hard during the up cycle to continuously reduce all our costs. This has provided much greater productivity, and that is really apparent during this downturn. As industry conditions improve, ADI is well positioned to grow our sales at above market rates, continue to gain market share in high performance analog and DSP, and gain good operating leverage as sales increase. Signal processing is becoming the main semiconductor growth engine, and at ADI, we're extremely well positioned to benefit from these emerging trends. That's all the formal comments that I'm going to make. We'd be happy to answer any questions that you might have.

一旦出現麻煩跡象，我們就能夠嚴格限制外部生產，以避免庫存過剩。相較於在高度週期性業務中承擔高額基礎設施成本的競爭對手，我們對這些產品的外包策略提供了顯著的獲利穩定性。最後，作為一家公司，我們在升級週期中努力工作，並不斷降低所有成本。這提供了更高的生產力，這在經濟低迷時期尤其明顯。隨著行業狀況的改善，ADI 處於有利地位，能夠以高於市場的速度增長我們的銷售額，繼續獲得高性能模擬和 DSP 領域的市場份額，並隨著銷售額的增長獲得良好的營運槓桿。訊號處理正在成為主要的半導體成長引擎，而在 ADI，我們處於非常有利的位置，可以從這些新興趨勢中受益。這就是我要發表的所有正式評論。我們很樂意回答您可能提出的任何問題。

We would indeed. This is Jim Fishbeck again, and we are ready for the questions from the dial-in participants. For any of the analyst participants who missed the remarks at the beginning of the call, if you have a question please press '*1' on the phone. We will ask for questions in the same order that we receive them. And if you're listening on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset when you ask your question and also please limit yourself during each round to one primary question and no more than a single follow-on question. We are recording the call today so that those who are unable to join us can dial in later for the replay. This recording will be available about 2 hours after the call is completed and will remain online for 1 week. The recording call will also be available via the Internet by visiting the Analog Devices website at www.analog.com. Today's first question comes to us from Nimal Vallipuram with DKW. Nimal go ahead with your question.

我們確實會。我又是吉姆·菲什貝克（Jim Fishbeck），我們已準備好回答撥入參與者的問題。對於錯過電話開始時發言的分析師參與者，如果您有疑問，請按電話上的「*1」。我們將按照收到問題的順序提出問題。如果您使用免持通話，請在提問時拿起聽筒，並且在每一輪中將自己限制在一個主要問題上，並且不得超過一個後續問題。我們今天對通話進行錄音，以便那些無法加入我們的人稍後可以撥入重播。該錄音將在通話結束後約 2 小時內提供，並將在線上保留 1 週。您也可以透過網路造訪 Analog Devices 網站 www.analog.com 來取得通話錄音。今天的第一個問題來自 DKW 的 Nimal Vallipuram。尼馬爾繼續你的問題。

Yeah. This is Nimal Vallipuram, actually, couple of questions there. Can you give us some idea of what your capacity utilization levels are? And I have a followup question.

是的。我是 Nimal Vallipuram，實際上，有幾個問題。您能否告訴我們您的產能利用率水準是多少？我還有一個後續問題。

Joe do you want to take that?

喬，你想接受這個嗎？

Yeah. Our capacity utilization across the number of different fabs, as we've mentioned, was a lot of different technologies in running a lot of different products. So it varies fab to fab, but probably the easiest way to look at it is that our analog business is off about 20% from the peak, and we've been responding to that by ramping down the fabs gradually in response to the slowdown. We've been replenishing some [_______________] along the way, but we're getting to the point where the [_______________] at about the right levels, and so it's probably fair to say we're running in the 80% to 85% range and continuing to ramp down a bit going forward.

是的。正如我們所提到的，我們在多個不同晶圓廠的產能利用率是運行許多不同產品的許多不同技術。因此，不同晶圓廠的情況各不相同，但可能最簡單的看待方式是，我們的模擬業務較峰值下降了約 20%，我們一直在透過逐步減少晶圓廠數量來應對這一放緩。一路上我們一直在補充一些 [_______________]，但我們已經達到 [_______________] 處於正確水平的程度，因此可以公平地說，我們正在 80% 到 85% 的範圍內運行範圍並繼續略微下降。

Yeah, in that case, my followup question is are there any chances or is it possible for ADI to outsource even any part of your Analog manufacturing to some foundries?

是的，在這種情況下，我的後續問題是 ADI 是否有機會或可能將模擬製造的任何部分外包給某些代工廠？

Well, we already outsource a small portion of our analog business. Some of our analog products, I think we've mentioned this quite a while ago, we do use FineLine and CMOS to build, and generally those are products that are in some of the more volatile segments. So we already are outsourcing a small portion of our analog business to outside foundries. That's mostly, Nimal, dependent on the product mix. There are some products where you really need our proprietary analog processes to make, which are not available in foundries, and there are other types of products that even though they're analog in nature you could produce on industry-standard CMOS, and generally those products we do outsource, but it's very, very dependent on the product mix.

嗯，我們已經外包了一小部分模擬業務。我們的一些模擬產品，我想我們很久以前就已經提到過這一點，我們確實使用 FineLine 和 CMOS 來構建，通常這些產品屬於一些波動較大的細分市場。因此，我們已經將一小部分模擬業務外包給外部代工廠。 Nimal，這主要取決於產品組合。有些產品確實需要我們專有的模擬製程來製造，而代工廠無法提供這些產品，還有其他類型的產品，儘管它們本質上是模擬的，但您可以在行業標準 CMOS 上生產，通常這些產品我們外包的產品，但這非常非常依賴產品組合。

Back in 1996, you did take some action again in the case of closing down one of your fabs and took a one-time charge, and also during this conference call, you mentioned not exactly that, but something to that effect. Is there something, which is on the cards going forward if things don't turn around soon enough?

早在1996年，您確實再次採取了一些行動，關閉了您的一家晶圓廠並進行了一次性收費，而且在這次電話會議中，您提到的並不是完全如此，而是類似的內容。如果事情沒有足夠快地好轉，未來是否有可能發生什麼事情？

It's always hard to say what's going to happen if things get a lot worse. Our current plan is what Joe really said that we are ramping down our fabs. We did that pretty significantly this quarter. We're going to do it next quarter, which is why we're forecasting very slight gross margin erosion again, and I think that's our plan right now. We've said and our current belief is that Q3 could be the trough quarter for that business, and it will be down for this quarter, we expect. So our sense is that's about as low as it's going to go. If it turns out it's a lot lower than that, we'll have to look at other alternatives.

如果事情變得更糟，總是很難說會發生什麼。我們目前的計劃就是喬所說的，我們正在縮減我們的晶圓廠。本季我們在這方面做得相當出色。我們將在下個季度這樣做，這就是為什麼我們預測毛利率會再次出現非常輕微的侵蝕，我認為這就是我們現在的計劃。我們已經說過，我們目前的信念是，第三季度可能是該業務的低谷季度，我們預計本季將會下降。所以我們的感覺是，這已經是最低的了。如果事實證明它比這個低很多，我們將不得不考慮其他替代方案。

Alright. Thanks a lot.

好吧。多謝。

I think just one follow-up to that Nimal is we see one of the greatest opportunities in our analog business is to continue to reduce our bad debt costs. And we've talked in the past about our program to move all our analog testing offshore. That's moving along pretty well, and a very high percentage of our testing is done offshore right now. Now the comment I made is we're thinking of trying to accelerate debt over the next couple of quarters, and the reason is that it's the last 5% to 10% where our infrastructure costs are. So the best time to try to do that is when you're not fully loaded because it's a very difficult thing to do when you're trying to run at 100% capacity to do that. So the comment I made earlier is were contemplating trying to accelerate debt, and that's where we think the greatest opportunity is for us going forward.

我認為，Nimal 的後續行動之一是，我們看到模擬業務中最大的機會之一就是繼續降低壞帳成本。我們過去曾討論過將所有模擬測試轉移到海外的計劃。這一切進展順利，目前我們的測試中有很大一部分是在海外完成的。現在我的評論是，我們正在考慮在未來幾季加速債務成長，原因是這是我們基礎設施成本的最後 5% 到 10%。因此，嘗試執行此操作的最佳時間是在未滿載時，因為當您嘗試以 100% 的容量運行時，這是一件非常困難的事情。因此，我之前發表的評論是正在考慮嘗試加速債務，這是我們認為未來最大的機會。

Thank you Nimal. Our next question comes from David Wu. Go ahead David.

謝謝尼馬爾。我們的下一個問題來自吳大衛。大衛，繼續吧。

Yeah. Jerry two quick questions. Number one is, this thing about $20 million of reserve?

是的。傑瑞兩個簡單的問題。第一個問題是，2000 萬美元的儲備金？

Yes.

是的。

I usually don't hear about this. Is this, normally you have inventory write-down, in this one, because the number is so big that you mentioned it in particular, because if I add it back it to $20 million to your cost of goods sold or gross margin, actually your gross margin is sequentially higher. How recurrent is these sort of inventory reserves in this environment?

我通常不會聽到這個。是這樣嗎，通常你會在這一項中進行庫存減記，因為這個數字太大了，你特別提到了它，因為如果我把它加回2000 萬美元到你的銷售成本或毛利率中，實際上你的毛利率環比較高。在這種環境下，此類庫存儲備的重複性如何？

I'll turn it over to our VP of Inventory Reserves, Joe McDonough.

我會將其交給我們的庫存儲備副總裁 Joe McDonough。

I guess it's fair to say that it's more typical to have 1% or 2% of sales in a normal quarter that might wind up being reserve. It's certainly during the heated pace of last year, virtually everything we made we could shift, and therefore, there hasn't been too much in the nature of inventory reserves, but in this period here where you get so much backlog that's cancelled and some of it obviously book and inventory for, that winds up producing the $20 million write-off this quarter. You really can't say there's really anything normal or routine about what to expect there. It depends really on what happens in each business environment.

我想可以公平地說，更典型的情況是，正常季度銷售額的 1% 或 2% 最終可能會被保留。當然，在去年的激烈節奏中，幾乎我們製造的所有產品都可以轉移，因此，庫存儲備的性質並沒有太多，但在這個時期，您會收到大量積壓訂單，這些訂單被取消了，還有一些顯然，其中的帳面和庫存最終導致本季沖銷 2000 萬美元。你真的不能說那裡有什麼正常或常規的事情。這實際上取決於每個業務環境中發生的情況。

I think what you can get out of Joe's comment is, it's about twice as large as it would typically be in a quarter, maybe a little bit more than that.

我認為你可以從喬的評論中得到的是，它大約是通常四分之一的兩倍，也許比這個多一點。

That's presumably from the DSP, because the analog presumably has a longer life.

這可能來自 DSP，因為類比訊號的壽命可能更長。

Yeah. A large portion of it is in the DSP-based businesses, but there is some here and there in all the businesses.

是的。其中很大一部分是基於 DSP 的業務，但所有業務中都有一些。

I see. Two other quick things is that the Q4, Jerry, you feel comfortable, why should we feel comfortable other than we know Siemens is coming on-stream for the handset business in Q4 to expect some recovery in both the analog and the DSP business? And lastly, when I look at your partner, the one in Santa Clara, they're doing everything, I guess, RF, Flash memory, and logic all in one chip, CMOS chip. Could that be something that you could do as well in future activities through your relationship with TSMC?

我懂了。另外兩件事是，傑瑞，第四季度你感覺很舒服，除了我們知道西門子將在第四季度開始手機業務並期望模擬和 DSP 業務有所復甦之外，為什麼我們應該感到舒服呢？最後，當我看到你們在聖克拉拉的合作夥伴時，我猜他們正在做所有事情，射頻、快閃記憶體和邏輯都在一個晶片（CMOS 晶片）中。透過與台積電的關係，您在未來的活動中是否也可以這樣做？

I think, let me try to take a whack at the first one. First, I think it's important to say that we have assumptions about Q4 based on the fact that the backlog churn is going down a little bit, the churns business has picked up a little bit, the backlog's getting down to the more typical levels that we would like to operate the company under, and we've taken some fairly massive hits to our backlog over the last two quarters. So that is the assumption we are making about Q4, but as I said earlier, there is not a lot of evidence to support that assumption right now. We do have some one-time things that are going to come in, in Q4, but I think the overall assumption is that Q3 will be the trough and from there it will be a slow crawl out of there. Now it could turn out that assumption's wrong. We really don't have a lot of visibility to make sure that that's the right assumption. Even with the some of the large programs like the one you mentioned with Siemens, there's an awful lot of chaos out there in the handset market as I said right now. So I don't think anything is guaranteed for Q4. The question about Intel, what they announced today, which I read, the same announcement as you did, I think what they are talking about integrating is their XScale processor, which is the one that basically is the ADI-Intel DSP core integrating with Flash, and they're going to integrate that, of course, will their strong arm, which they've called XScale. They made no comments at all in there about the radio, which I expect will be on quite a different technology. Now I think what Intel was really saying is historically, the XScale, the Flash, and the DSP were build on different technologies in Intel, and now they're going to build those elements on a single technology and therefore a single chip.

我想，讓我試試第一個。首先，我認為重要的是，我們對第四季度的假設是基於以下事實：積壓訂單流失率略有下降，流失業務有所回升，積壓訂單降至我們預期的更典型水平。想要經營該公司，並且在過去兩個季度我們的積壓訂單受到了相當大的打擊。這就是我們對第四季所做的假設，但正如我之前所說，目前沒有太多證據支持這個假設。我們確實會在第四季度出現一些一次性的事情，但我認為總體假設是第三季度將是低谷，從那裡它將緩慢爬出。現在事實可能證明這個假設是錯的。我們確實沒有太多的可見性來確保這是正確的假設。即使有一些大型項目，例如您提到的西門子項目，正如我現在所說，手機市場仍然存在許多混亂。所以我認為第四季沒有任何保證。關於英特爾的問題，他們今天宣布了什麼，我讀到了，與您所做的相同，我認為他們正在談論集成的是他們的 XScale 處理器，這基本上是與閃存集成的 ADI-Intel DSP 內核，當然，他們將整合他們強大的手臂，他們稱之為XScale。他們沒有對收音機發表任何評論，我預計收音機將採用完全不同的技術。現在我認為英特爾真正想說的是，從歷史上看，XScale、閃存和 DSP 是基於英特爾的不同技術構建的，現在他們將在單一技術上構建這些元素，因此在單個晶片上構建這些元素。

That's something that TSMC could do today. So I don't see where that's a big leap forward. On the other hand, the radio stuff really is unique technology, it's something different, and to the best of my knowledge, it's not what Intel was taking about in their press releases today.

這就是台積電今天可以做的事。所以我不認為這是一個巨大的飛躍。另一方面，無線電確實是一種獨特的技術，它是不同的東西，而且據我所知，這並不是英特爾在今天的新聞稿中所涉及的內容。

I see. Thank you.

我懂了。謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you David. The next question comes to us from Doug Lee with Banc of America. Doug?

謝謝大衛。下一個問題是美國銀行的道格李向我們提出的。道格？

Hi. Good afternoon. Just a quick clarification on the churns requirement. Are you saying that for the guidance you've given at this point that you're expecting churns, the actual dollars of churns, to pick up in the quarter?

你好。午安.只是對流失要求進行快速澄清。您是說，根據您目前給予的指導，您預計流失率（流失率的實際金額）將在本季回升？

Yeah, I'd say that our best estimates are based on our dollars of churns picking up slightly from last quarter.

是的，我想說，我們的最佳估計是基於我們的客戶流失率較上季略有上升。

Okay. Great. And then on a longer-term, congratulations on the win with Samsung and Quanta, but let me...

好的。偉大的。然後從長遠來看，祝賀三星和廣達的勝利，但讓我...

Yeah, those are very important things for us.

是的，這些對我們來說非常重要。

Yeah, absolutely. We'd love to get a little color, I know it's awfully hard to predict in this environment, but if you can give maybe on a really optimistic case or maybe give me a range of how large the Samsung dollar win could be in the second half, or however you want to frame this? Want to get a sense of scale.

是的，絕對是。我們很想得到一點顏色，我知道在這種環境下很難預測，但如果你能給出一個非常樂觀的情況，或者給我一個範圍，告訴我第二次三星美元獲勝的幅度有多大一半，或者無論如何你想框架這個？想要獲得規模感。

I have a very hard time doing that, because I think in the press release Samsung announced that it was about 600,000 line deployment. We can't obviously talk about our average selling prices in there. So about as much as we can say about that is what Samsung and Analog announced today. So each line has a chipset on each end of it. So you'll have to form your own opinions on the average selling price of that. We can't disclose that.

我很難做到這一點，因為我認為三星在新聞稿中宣布部署了大約 60 萬條線路。我們顯然不能談論我們在那裡的平均售價。關於這一點，我們所能說的就是三星和 Analog 今天宣布的內容。因此，每條線路的兩端都有一個晶片組。因此，您必須對其平均售價形成自己的看法。我們不能透露這一點。

Okay. The chips are on each end for each line? Okay. And then lastly for Quanta, which is a great manufacturer out there, is typically they will produce for somebody else on an OEM basis, but I do know they sell some handsets under their own name. Do you have a sense of whether their handset here that you're in will be more for a, on a contract-to-manufacture basis or for their own line?

好的。晶片位於每條線的兩端？好的。最後，對於廣達來說，這是一家偉大的製造商，他們通常會在 OEM 的基礎上為其他人生產，但我確實知道他們以自己的名義銷售一些手機。您是否知道您所使用的他們的手機是更適合合約製造還是適合他們自己的產品線？

Well, I think it's hard to tell how that will turn out, but it's certainly going to be used for both applications. I mean, as I said earlier, there is, I think, very little doubt now that with all the price pressures that exist out there in the handset market that a lot of that manufacturing, and obviously now with Quanta and a few others, a lot of the design is being exported out to Southeast Asia for handsets, and Quanta has established a great franchise over the years doing that in the PC market. They've got a lot of the largest PC OEMs business, and clearly, Quanta strategy is to do the same thing, first of all, as independent handsets that will be OEM for some of the, I believe, tier 1 companies and also those that'll be sold in to personal computers to provide some wireless capability to PC manufacturers. So I don't think anyone would have predicted this a year or two ago, but I think it's very, very clear that that is a clear and unequivocal trend in the handset business right now, and I think Quanta is very well positioned to do some of that.

嗯，我認為很難說結果如何，但它肯定會用於這兩種應用程式。我的意思是，正如我之前所說，我認為，現在毫無疑問，由於手機市場存在的所有價格壓力，大量的製造，顯然現在與廣達和其他一些公司一起，許多設計被出口到東南亞用於手機，廣達多年來在個人電腦市場建立了良好的特許經營權。他們擁有許多最大的 PC OEM 業務，顯然，廣達的策略是做同樣的事情，首先，作為獨立手機，我相信，將為一些一級公司以及那些它將被出售給個人電腦，為個人電腦製造商提供一些無線功能。因此，我認為一兩年前沒有人會預測到這一點，但我認為非常非常清楚，這是目前手機業務的一個明確且明確的趨勢，而且我認為廣達非常有能力做到這一點其中一些。

Okay. We look forward to hearing more about it in future. Thanks.

好的。我們期待將來聽到更多有關它的資訊。謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thank you Doug. The next question comes to us from Joe Osha with Merrill Lynch. Joe?

謝謝你，道格。下一個問題是美林證券的 Joe Osha 向我們提出的。喬？

Hi. Thanks. First question, on the PC end of things, you mentioned that you'd seen an uptake in notebooks. If you could give me maybe a little more color on that, it'd be real helpful.

你好。謝謝。第一個問題，在 PC 端，您提到您已經看到筆記型電腦的普及。如果你能為我提供更多的信息，那將會非常有幫助。

I have a lot more color. We've seen that the inventory, for the last 6 months, we haven't got any orders mostly in the PC business. We've seen some pickup in the order pattern particularly in Taiwan, and particularly for our audio products, which are probably in about half of all the PCs manufactured right now. Now as I said earlier, we're still cautious about that, because we don't really know if that's just inventory replenishment or they're really seen a real upturn in demand. So we'll have to wait another quarter or so until we get convinced there's a real pickup in that sector. But it was one of the positive things we saw last quarter, and given that in those sectors like power management and audio we have very high market shares, we'll do well when the PC market picks up. We're just not sure that the anecdotal stuff in the slight pickup in the order rates that we've seen in the last month or two are real yet or just inventory. So we'll have to wait and see on that.

我還有很多顏色。我們看到庫存，過去 6 個月，我們沒有收到任何訂單，主要是 PC 業務。我們看到訂單模式有所回升，特別是在台灣，尤其是我們的音訊產品，目前生產的所有 PC 中約有一半都使用了這些產品。現在，正如我之前所說，我們仍然對此持謹慎態度，因為我們真的不知道這是否只是庫存補充，還是確實看到了需求的真正回升。因此，我們將不得不再等待一個季度左右，直到我們確信該行業出現真正的回升。但這是我們上季度看到的積極的事情之一，考慮到在電源管理和音訊等領域我們擁有非常高的市場份額，當個人電腦市場回升時，我們將做得很好。我們只是不確定過去一兩個月我們看到的訂單率略有上升的軼事是真實的還是只是庫存。所以我們必須拭目以待。

Okay. Thanks, and my follow-on is as follows. In some of the distributor checks that you've been doing, it's been told that the inventory debt level is under good control, but hearing that out in EMS land they're still seeing relatively little change from the way things were in December, what's your reaction to that? Are you kind of hearing the same thing from your distributors?

好的。謝謝，我的後續內容如下。在你們一直在做的一些分銷商檢查中，我們被告知庫存債務水準得到了良好的控制，但在EMS 領域聽說，與12 月相比，他們仍然看到相對較小的變化，這是什麼？你對此有何反應？您是否從經銷商那裡聽到了同樣的說法？

Our sense also is that the distributors seems to be under relatively good control and we're still seeing cancellations and backlog churning in the EMS companies. So I think we would support that view.

我們還認為，分銷商似乎處於相對良好的控制之下，我們仍然看到 EMS 公司的訂單取消和積壓。所以我認為我們會支持這種觀點。

Okay. Thank you very much Jerry.

好的。非常感謝傑瑞。

Sure.

當然。

Thanks Joe. Drew Peck with SG Cowen has the next question. Drew? Hang on a second. Let's try it again here. Try again Drew.

謝謝喬。 SG Cowen 的 Drew Peck 有下一個問題。德魯？稍等一下。讓我們在這裡再試一次。再試一次德魯。

Alright. How about now?

好吧。現在怎麼樣？

We got you.

我們抓到你了。

Okay. My first question was where is the Siemens deal right now. Has there been any change in that or are you still expecting to see substantial volumes by the end of this year?

好的。我的第一個問題是西門子的交易現在進展如何。這方面有什麼變化嗎？還是您仍然預計到今年年底會看到大量銷售？

I think it's very hard to say right now. We just met with Siemens a couple of days ago, and there're some very mixed signals there. There's obviously a huge amount of chaos right now in the handset market. Some of the notable tier 1 manufacturers are dumping inventory at a pretty extreme rate. There's lots of inventory still out there in the channel. Now we have two basic programs that we've been working with Siemens on. One is in their standard GSM phones and the other is in the GPRS phone, which has much higher data features, as I'm sure you know. I'd say that in the initial phases of the buildup with Siemens our sense was that was going to come out of the standard GSM phones. The reason I'm a little bit more cautious about that in Q4 is that there's a lot of inventory out there and Siemens is really trying to figure out what to do about that. The GPRS phone is moving along like gangbusters, and we expect that's going to contribute pretty substantially, but that's probably not going to be until first or second quarter of next year. So really dependent on what Siemens decides to do in the sort of standard GSM business and depending on how fast that inventory burns off this quarter, that'll either be a good number or a bad number for Q4, but the relationship we have Siemens is great. The designing that we have with them are good, but I just don't know what it's going to be in Q4, enough to say that's going to be a large increase for us in Q4.

我認為現在很難說。幾天前我們剛與西門子會面，那裡有一些非常複雜的訊號。顯然，目前手機市場存在著巨大的混亂。一些著名的一級製造商正在以相當高的速度傾銷庫存。渠道中仍有大量庫存。現在我們有兩個與西門子合作的基本專案。一種是標準 GSM 手機，另一種是 GPRS 手機，它具有更高的數據功能，我相信您知道。我想說的是，在與西門子合作的初始階段，我們的感覺是標準 GSM 手機將會出現這種情況。我對第四季度的情況更加謹慎的原因是，那裡有大量庫存，而西門子正在努力找出解決方案。 GPRS 手機正在如火如荼地發展，我們預計這將做出相當大的貢獻，但這可能要到明年第一季或第二季才會出現。因此，實際上取決於西門子決定在標準 GSM 業務中做什麼，以及本季度庫存消耗的速度，這對於第四季度來說要么是好數字，要么是壞數字，但我們與西門子的關係是偉大的。我們與他們的設計很好，但我只是不知道第四季會是什麼，足以說明這對我們來說將是第四季的大幅成長。

Okay. In the same vein, when would you expect the impact of Quanta to be felt?

好的。同樣，您預期什麼時候會感受到廣達的影響？

I think it'll start out as sort of moderate levels in Q4 and start building after that depending on how well they do with their, I think, really their OEM progress. I mean, I think the best opportunity for us with them is going to wind up being as a supply phones, that people with private label.

我認為它將在第四季度開始於中等水平，然後開始構建，具體取決於他們的 OEM 進展。我的意思是，我認為我們與他們合作的最佳機會最終將成為供應電話，即擁有自有品牌的人。

Right. And lastly, is there any activity in direct-conversion receivers outside of the GSM market? Is there something we ought to be looking at there in the next...

正確的。最後，GSM 市場之外的直接轉換接收器是否有任何活動？接下來有什麼我們該關注的嗎？

I think there's a lot of activity in the Internet appliance part of the market. We've talked about that. There's a lot of potential activity as we get out to the 3G generation, particularly with our newest Othello One chipset, which is a second generation direct-conversion radio. So I think that Othello has the capability to be very heavily utilized in anything that is wireless, and I think when you see some of these things that nobody would've anticipated, like with Quanta, I think you see how broad the applicability of this technology could be. Just as an aside, Mitsubishi announced already that they're going to use Othello in the 3G market and I wouldn't count out Mitsubishi as being a pretty significant player in that market in the future. So I think we're concerned about what's going to happen in the short-term just based on the chaos right now that still exists in the handset market, but of course, you know that, but the long term, I think this is great technology, and it's going to be heavily utilized in many, many different applications, and it really still is, despite all the static that you hear out in the industry, it's still a year to 2 years ahead of anybody else's technology in the industry.

我認為市場上的互聯網設備部分有很多活動。我們已經討論過了。當我們進入 3G 時代時，將會有許多潛在的活動，特別是我們最新的 Othello One 晶片組，它是第二代直接轉換無線電。因此，我認為Othello 有能力在任何無線領域中廣泛利用，我認為，當您看到其中一些沒人會預料到的事情（例如Quanta）時，我想您會看到它的適用性有多廣泛。技術可以。順便說一句，三菱已經宣布他們將在 3G 市場使用 Othello，我不會認為三菱未來會成為該市場的重要參與者。因此，我認為我們擔心短期內會發生什麼，因為目前手機市場仍然存在混亂，但當然，你知道這一點，但從長遠來看，我認為這很棒技術，它將在許多不同的應用中獲得大量利用，而且實際上仍然如此，儘管您在行業中聽到了所有的靜態聲音，但它仍然比行業中其他任何技術領先一到兩年。

Okay. Thanks guys.

好的。多謝你們。

Okay. Thank you Drew. The next question comes to us from Lucas Ward with JP Morgan. Go ahead Lucas.

好的。謝謝德魯。下一個問題是盧卡斯·沃德和摩根大通往我們提出的問題。盧卡斯，繼續吧。

Thanks. Wondering if you could give us a breakout of revenues by end market and channel, if you're dispose to? And then also for a followup, touch on the digital consumer market where there seems to be a lot of new product ramps, but at the same time, as you mentioned, is being affected by consumer confidence?

謝謝。如果您願意的話，想知道是否可以向我們提供按終端市場和管道劃分的收入明細？接下來，談談數位消費市場，那裡似乎有很多新產品上市，但同時，正如您所提到的，消費者信心是否受到影響？

Why don't you take the first Joe, and I'll talk about the digital consumer stuff?

為什麼不選擇第一個喬，我來談談數位消費者的東西？

Okay. Yeah, I think the end market now as a result of the sales this quarter probably looks something like the communications businesses. It's slightly under 40%, the industrial business is somewhere in the 35% to 40% range, and the computer business and the consumer businesses are both in the 10% type range. The distri business is now up somewhere probably in the 45% range.

好的。是的，我認為本季銷售結果的終端市場可能看起來像是通訊業務。略低於 40%，工業業務在 35% 到 40% 的範圍內，電腦業務和消費業務都在 10% 的範圍內。分銷業務目前的漲幅可能在 45% 左右。

But mainly because of the weakness of the OEM business.

但主要是因為OEM業務疲軟。

Yeah.

是的。

Now, the...I forgot the question already.

現在，...我已經忘記這個問題了。

Knock him down.

把他打倒。

Are digital consumer product ramps offsetting consumer confidence weakness?

數位消費產品的成長是否可以抵消消費者信心的疲軟？

Yeah, I'd say that that's pretty well true. We didn't see much of a decline in our digital consumer business last quarter, and I think that's certainly related to the extraordinary number of new products that are out there and our increasing penetration of many of those new products. So we saw a slight decline in the consumer business, but not a very substantial decline. Now you might have read about that there was a fairly major product announcement about JPEG 2000, which was in all the newspapers, in the front page of all the electronics newspapers, I think, just this week, and maybe Robbie could give a little color on what's going on with the JPEG 2000 stuff?

是的，我想說這是千真萬確的。上季度我們的數位消費業務並未出現太大下滑，我認為這肯定與大量新產品的推出以及我們對其中許多新產品的滲透率不斷提高有關。所以我們看到消費業務略有下降，但不是非常大幅的下降。現在您可能已經讀到，有一個關於 JPEG 2000 的相當重要的產品公告，它出現在所有報紙上，所有電子報紙的頭版上，我想，就在本週，也許 Robbie 可以提供一點顏色JPEG 2000的情況怎麼樣？

Yes. The JPEG 2000 standard is a new standard replacing the old traditional JPEG, and probably the most graphic example is in digital cameras. Basically, the features, it's a scalable, you can define the quality you need on the camera in terms of your picture. So under normal circumstances, it will store almost twice as many pictures as the standard JPEG compression, but you've also got a lot of flexibility. So this has been designed mainly, it was put together, the standard was put together by most of the major consumer players in Europe and Japan, and we've got the only chip in the marketplace, at present that does meet the standard. So it's going to be a really exciting business for us, and it's based on our wavelength capability, and certainly, our current chip is heavily patented. So I think this is going to be a very, very significant business for us looking forward over the next 12 months.

是的。 JPEG 2000 標準是取代舊的傳統 JPEG 的新標準，最生動的例子可能是數位相機。基本上，它的功能是可擴展的，您可以根據圖片定義相機所需的品質。因此，在正常情況下，它儲存的圖片數量幾乎是標準 JPEG 壓縮的兩倍，但您也獲得了巨大的靈活性。因此，這主要是由歐洲和日本的大多數主要消費廠商共同設計、組合和製定的標準，目前我們擁有市場上唯一符合標準的晶片。因此，這對我們來說將是一項非常令人興奮的業務，它基於我們的波長能力，當然，我們目前的晶片已獲得大量專利。因此，我認為這對我們未來 12 個月來說將是一項非常非常重要的業務。

I think what all that really says is that the whole image of this digital consumer thing being sort of a commodity business is really changing because chips like this JPEG 2000 chip require the most advance technology that we have, and that's true in many, many of these new consumer products. So it's not only capable of pretty high volume, but it's capable of demonstrating some pretty good margins at the same time. So the digital consumer thing is an important market for us, for us going forward as Robbie was saying.

我認為真正想說的是，這種數位消費產品作為一種商品業務的整體形象正在真正改變，因為像JPEG 2000 晶片這樣的晶片需要我們擁有的最先進的技術，這在許多許多領域都是如此。這些新的消費品。因此，它不僅能夠實現相當高的銷量，而且能夠同時展示一些相當不錯的利潤率。因此，正如羅比所說，數位消費者對我們來說是一個重要的市場，對我們來說也是一個重要的市場。

Alright. Thanks.

好吧。謝謝。

Thank you. Our next question is from Charles Boucher with Bear Stearns. Go ahead Charles.

謝謝。我們的下一個問題來自貝爾斯登的查爾斯·鮑徹。查爾斯，繼續吧。

Okay. Just a couple of quick ones. Could you tell us what your churns bookings were in the April quarter? I was just wondering what level you saw and how much of an improvement, and what's your outlook for the June-July quarter, what's your expectation there? And then the followup is just on the pricing outlook, Jerry I think you said that you're seeing pretty good price stability in your high-end analog products. Are you confident that that'll continue given the, it seems like there has been a pretty substantial shift to the buyer in the equation? Are you comfortable the pricing will remain stable or are you building in any price declines into your forecast and outlook?

好的。只是幾個快速的。您能否告訴我們您在四月季度的流失預訂量是多少？我只是想知道您看到了什麼水平以及有多少改進，以及您對 6 月至 7 月季度的展望是什麼，您的期望是什麼？然後後續只是關於定價前景，傑瑞，我想你說過你看到高端模擬產品的價格穩定性相當好。鑑於等式中買家似乎已經發生了相當大的轉變，您是否有信心這種情況會繼續下去？您是否認為價格將保持穩定，或者您是否將任何價格下跌納入您的預測和展望？

Joe you want to talk about churns?

喬，你想談談客戶流失嗎？

Yeah. The churns, I think you have to start when you look at churns and really understand what's going on in the backlog, and if you go back to sort of the peak last year, we were sitting with backlog well over a billion dollars that customers wanted during the next week, and that's down to something about half of that now as a result of the cancellations that have been going on over the last two quarters. So when you get the churns, you're really looking for new demand, and some of that new demand is hidden underneath the shifts that are going on in the backlog, and we saw something under 20% of our revenues this quarter that came from what you would normally call churns business, but recognizing the shifts in the backlog, it's a little hard to be sure of exactly what's going on there. And next quarter, we'll probably need something closer to 25% of our sales from churns. Now of course, all that assumes that cancellations still carry on at a pretty good clip, but down quite a bit from what we saw this past quarter. And I think both of those are assumptions that we'll just have to wait to see what the business environment produces, but that's based on the trends that we've been seeing recently of those expectations. I think it's fair to say that in the normal business environment, we would expect to see something in the order of a third of our business coming from churns business when things, sort of, get back to normal.

是的。流失，我認為你必須從查看流失開始，真正了解積壓中發生了什麼，如果你回到去年的高峰，我們的積壓遠遠超過客戶想要的 10 億美元下週內，由於過去兩個季度不斷發生的取消活動，這一數字已降至目前的一半左右。因此，當您出現客戶流失時，您實際上正在尋找新需求，而其中一些新需求隱藏在積壓訂單中正在發生的變化之下，我們看到本季度收入的 20% 以下來自於您通常將其稱為流失業務，但認識到積壓的變化，很難確定到底發生了什麼。下個季度，我們可能需要接近 25% 的銷售額來自流失。當然，現在所有這些都假設取消仍然以相當好的速度進行，但與我們上個季度看到的相比下降了很多。我認為這兩個假設都是我們必須等待看看商業環境會產生什麼結果，但這是基於我們最近看到的這些預期的趨勢。我認為可以公平地說，在正常的商業環境中，當事情恢復正常時，我們預計會有三分之一的業務來自流失業務。

I think the thing you have to realize on what's going on out there now is in all the last couple of months, the world just stops at many customers, not just communications customers, but many, many customers in many, many market segments until these customers sort of figured out where things were going. So it's quite typical in a cycle like this that customers are waiting till the last minute, and when they order, they need the product. So it's not surprising that over the last month or so that we've seen an uptake in our churns business, I mean that would be infinitely predictable having gone through so many of these cycles over the last couple of years. So, as Joe said, our assumption is that will continue, and we need a little bit more churns business than we got last quarter, but not a lot more churns business than we got last quarter to get to the kind of guidance that we've given you. Now, as Joe said, that's highly dependent on what happens with the backlog. If the backlog really stabilizes, and we keep all the backlog that we have right now, we need less than that. If it turns out that a lot more of the backlog that we have goes away, of course, we'll need more than that. So that's why, as Joe's comments were indicating, just picking out of churns level in the absence of what happens with the backlog, is not a very meaningful level.

我認為你必須意識到現在正在發生的事情是在過去的幾個月裡，世界只停留在許多客戶上，不僅僅是通信客戶，而是許多許多細分市場的許多許多客戶，直到這些客戶有點了解事情的進展。因此，在這樣的周期中，客戶等待到最後一刻是很常見的，當他們訂購時，他們需要產品。因此，在過去一個月左右的時間裡，我們看到我們的客戶流失業務有所增長，這並不奇怪，我的意思是，在過去幾年經歷瞭如此多的此類週期之後，這是無限可預測的。因此，正如喬所說，我們的假設是這種情況將會持續下去，我們需要比上季度多一點的流失業務，但流失業務不會比上季度多很多，才能達到我們所期望的那種指導。已經給你了。現在，正如喬所說，這很大程度上取決於積壓的情況。如果積壓確實穩定下來，並且我們保留了目前所有的積壓，那麼我們需要的會比這個少。如果事實證明我們已經消除了更多的積壓，那麼我們當然需要更多。因此，正如喬的評論所表明的那樣，這就是為什麼在沒有積壓發生的情況下僅從流失等級中挑選出來並不是一個非常有意義的等級。

Okay. How about the pricing outlook?

好的。定價前景如何？

The pricing outlook for us on the analog business as it's been in most previous cycles, very, very, stable. As to the margin in the 10% or so of our products that are with as many sources for those products, of course, the pricing of that sector gets a lot more aggressive, because everyone is fighting for that business, but I'd say there's less than 10% of our analog business where that's the case. Now in some of the vertical segments, particularly in DSL, there has been a lot of price pressure, and the only real solution for that is more and more integration, cramming more and more channels in each chip that you do, certainly, that's been our roadmap and because eventually you can't just keep dropping the prices for channel without dropping the cost per channel. So there has some price pressure in the DSL market, and I think, as I said, the response to that is just much on your levels of integration, but all in all, I'd say that we haven't yet seen a whole bunch of price erosion, and I don't expect, particularly in our analog business which is were 80% of our sales are, if you base what's going to happen now on previous cycles, I don't expect we'll see much price pressure.

我們對模擬業務的定價前景與之前的大多數週期一樣，非常非常穩定。至於我們那 10% 左右的產品的利潤率，這些產品的來源同樣多，當然，該行業的定價會變得更加激進，因為每個人都在爭奪該業務，但我想說我們的模擬業務中只有不到10% 屬於這種情況。現在，在一些垂直領域，特別是 DSL，存在很大的價格壓力，唯一真正的解決方案是越來越多的集成，在每個晶片中塞入越來越多的通道，當然，這一直是我們的路線圖，因為最終你不能只是不斷降低頻道價格而不降低每個頻道的成本。因此，DSL 市場存在一些價格壓力，我認為，正如我所說，對此的反應很大程度上取決於您的整合水平，但總而言之，我想說我們還沒有看到完整的價格壓力。一堆價格侵蝕，我不認為，特別是在我們的模擬業務中，我們銷售額的80% 是，如果你根據以前的周期現在將要發生的情況，我不認為我們會看到太多價格壓力。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Thank you. Terry Ragsdale with Goldman Sachs has the next question. Terry?

謝謝。高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的特里·拉格斯代爾 (Terry Ragsdale) 有下一個問題。特里？

Thank you. Sorry about the background noise. I'm at the airport. Couple of quick questions on Othello; first of all, can you give a sense of what sort of penetration you expect Othello to get at Siemens? I mean are they going to go kind of throughout the product line with Othello and over what time period?

謝謝。抱歉，背景噪音。我在機場。關於奧賽羅的幾個簡單問題；首先，您能透露一下您希望《奧賽羅》在西門子獲得什麼樣的滲透嗎？我的意思是，他們會在 Othello 的整個產品線中進行推廣嗎？在什麼時間段內進行？

Sure, I'd say that I mean you can never predict that. You start off, sort of, one small step at a time, but I think with the way Siemens is thinking about, at least as they communicated to us, is they believe this is going to be their source for radio technology for most of their phones. Now as old phones sequence out, new phones sequence in, it's hard to predict exactly the uptake rate, but I think it's going to be an important part of their technology roadmap going forward.

當然，我想說的是你永遠無法預測這一點。你開始時，每次一小步，但我認為按照西門子的思考方式，至少在他們與我們溝通時，他們相信這將成為他們大部分業務的無線電技術來源。電話。現在，隨著舊手機的淘汰，新手機的投入，很難準確預測採用率，但我認為這將成為他們未來技術路線圖的重要組成部分。

Would it be too wild to suggest it would be a quarter or a third of their phones next year?

如果說明年他們的手機將佔四分之一或三分之一，會不會太瘋狂了？

I wouldn't even begin to speculate about that and certainly Siemens would not like me too.

我什至不會開始猜測這一點，而且西門子當然也不會喜歡我。

Okay, then one last one on this...

好吧，那麼最後一個就是這個…

If you want to know you can ask them.

如果你想知道你可以問他們。

That's fair.

這還算公平。

And I know what they'll tell you.

我知道他們會告訴你什麼。

Okay, that's fair. Just one other quick one; I believe Siemens and Quanta are both using your DSP, and to date, I think there's been a pretty clear advantage if you're going to use Othello to use ADI's DSP. To what extent could a tier 1 customer in the handset business, which arguably maybe Siemens is, but sort of one of the classic 3 that we always talk about could use another chipmaker's DSP and still use Othello?

好吧，這很公平。只是另一個快速的；我相信西門子和廣達都在使用你們的 DSP，而且到目前為止，我認為如果你們要使用 Othello 來使用 ADI 的 DSP，會有一個相當明顯的優勢。手機業務的一級客戶（可能是西門子，但屬於我們經常談論的經典三級客戶之一）在多大程度上可以使用另一家晶片製造商的 DSP 並仍然使用 Othello？

Well sure, I mean that is certainly possible. They'd have to do an interface chip between our radio and that's not a simple interface chip, but if they want to do it badly enough that's certainly possible.

當然，我的意思是這當然是可能的。他們必須在我們的無線電之間做一個介面晶片，這不是一個簡單的介面晶片，但如果他們想做得足夠好，那當然是可能的。

Do you guys have an incentive? Are you interested in providing that interface chip down the road or are you more interested in promoting your DSP?

你們有動力嗎？您是否有興趣在未來提供該介面晶片，或者您對推廣您的 DSP 更感興趣？

Well, I think there's really both. We certainly wrestle with that question all the time. Obviously, there's a dual-edged sword there. On one hand, if we hold fast and don't provide the interface then we have a higher chance of getting our DSP's in. On the other hand, it turns out, as we've said before, that well over 50% of the semiconductors building materials is on the analog and mix signal side not the DSP base-band. So there's a great incentive for us to say if we can get a larger share of a smaller pie, so to speak, that that would be very advantageous for us to do. Now the other thing that's true is that our Othello One, which is our second-generation direct-conversion radio, makes this a lot easier than it was in our first-generation Othello. So I think we continue to walk a fine line on that Terry. There's advantages and disadvantages, and we play that by ear as the circumstances materialize.

嗯，我認為兩者都有。我們當然一直在努力解決這個問題。顯然，這裡有一把雙面刃。一方面，如果我們堅持不提供接口，那麼我們獲得 DSP 的機會就會更高。另一方面，正如我們之前所說，事實證明，超過 50% 的半導體建築材料位於模擬和混合信號側，而不是DSP 基帶。因此，我們有很大的動機說，如果我們能夠在較小的蛋糕中獲得更大的份額，那麼可以說，這對我們來說是非常有利的。現在另一件事是真的，我們的 Othello One，這是我們的第二代直接轉換收音機，使這比我們的第一代 Othello 更容易。所以我認為我們在特里方面繼續保持謹慎。有利有弊，我們會根據實際情況隨機應變。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thank you Terry. Tore Svanberg with Robertson Stephens has a question for us. Tore.

謝謝特里。托雷·思文凱 (Tore Svanberg) 和羅伯遜·史蒂芬斯 (Robertson Stephens) 有一個問題要問我們。撕。

Yes. Good afternoon. I was wondering if you could give us an indication of the linearity of the quarter both in terms of orders and shipments? Then I have a short followup.

是的。午安.我想知道您能否向我們說明本季訂單和出貨量的線性情況？然後我有一個簡短的跟進。

Basically, skunk of a quarter. I mean I don't think there's any definable trend there. It started off slow. It didn't end much better than that. So I'd say that there's nothing definable in Q2 that would say it's gotten a whole lot better. I think the thing that's clear is that throughout the quarter cancellations did decline, and we saw that much more towards the end of the quarter than the beginning of the quarter, and I think it's also clear that churns business picked up later in the quarter, as compared to earlier in the quarter. So if you want to be optimistic, you can say that conditions improved throughout the quarter, but I think it's really too early to say that, and I think we're going to need another quarter of stability before we're willing to go out on a limb and say that we've seen the bottom, and it's here.

基本上，四分之一的臭鼬。我的意思是，我認為那裡沒有任何明確的趨勢。開始很慢。結局並沒有比這更好。所以我想說，第二季沒有什麼可以定義的，可以說它已經變得更好了。我認為很明顯的是，整個季度的取消訂單量確實有所下降，而且我們在季度末看到的取消量比季度初要多得多，而且我認為很明顯，客戶流失業務在本季度末有所回升，與本季早些時候相比。因此，如果你想保持樂觀，你可以說整個季度的情況有所改善，但我認為現在這麼說還為時過早，而且我認為我們還需要另一個季度的穩定才能願意走出去站在樹枝上，說我們已經看到底部了，它就在這裡。

Very good, and also, could you let us know how much your optical MEMS business was as part of revenue in the quarter? And could you give us a little bit more color on that entire business going forward? Please.

非常好，另外，您能否告訴我們您的光學 MEMS 業務佔本季營收的比例是多少？您能否為我們介紹整個業務的未來發展？請。

It's trivial, and well, a highly trivial part of our business, relative to $600 million in revenues last quarter. Now what we see the opportunity for those products are, we've only talked about this recently, is that certainly, MEMS technology, from all the feedback we're getting and also the rash of money that's now pouring into MEMS throughout the industry, I think there's no doubt that MEMS technology offers a real promise of significant technological breakthrough going forward, particularly in the optical area. Now what we see is the real play for companies like ADI there. Certainly, the MEMS technology alone and building the mirrors really does solve a very fundamental problem with high reliability at very low cost. But for ADI, what we see as the real opportunity is as we begin to integrate our analog and DSP capability right on the MEMS devices, because that's really what customers want, that's what really solves the density problem, and that's the thing that we believe that we have, a very, very significant lead on anybody else that is working on that despite a lot of press releases recently. So that's the part where we're really focused. I think we have very strong customer interest in this. This is truly one of those technologies that customers are really, really pulling us to do. Today in the industry we have the only production MEMS fab in the world, and I think so it's no wonder that customers seeing the importance of MEMS in optical applications are after us to do this. This is really one of the few applications where last quarter all these communications customers that were going crazy were after us to do more and more and more and were plying us with NREs to continue these programs despite the falloff in business.

相對於上季 6 億美元的收入來說，這是微不足道的，而且是我們業務中非常微不足道的部分。現在我們看到這些產品的機會是，我們最近才談到這一點，當然，MEMS技術，從我們得到的所有反饋以及整個行業現在湧入MEMS的大量資金來看，我認為毫無疑問，MEMS 技術確實有望實現重大技術突破，特別是在光學領域。現在我們看到的是像 ADI 這樣的公司真正的表現。當然，僅使用 MEMS 技術並建造鏡子確實可以以非常低的成本解決一個非常基本的問題，並且具有高可靠性。但對於ADI 來說，我們認為真正的機會是我們開始在MEMS 裝置上整合我們的類比和DSP 功能，因為這才是客戶真正想要的，這才是真正解決密度問題的方法，這就是我們所相信的儘管最近發布了許多新聞稿，但我們仍然比其他正在從事這方面工作的人處於非常非常重要的領先地位。這就是我們真正關注的部分。我認為客戶對此非常感興趣。這確實是客戶真正推動我們去做的技術之一。今天，在業界，我們擁有世界上唯一的 MEMS 生產工廠，我認為，看到 MEMS 在光學應用中的重要性的客戶都在追隨我們這樣做也就不足為奇了。這確實是少數應用程式之一，上個季度，所有這些瘋狂的通訊客戶都在要求我們做越來越多的事情，並不斷地與NRE 合作，讓我們繼續這些計劃，儘管業務有所下滑。

So I think this, even at our size, could be an important business for ADI going forward, because it really does integrate some very core technologies that we think are pretty unique, and also there, even when you sell these products at pretty good prices to these optical companies, these components are still such a small percentage of the bill of material that you can make extremely hard margins on this products. So it's still in the early phases, and it's certainly too early to say that we've figured all this out and we know what's going to happen. This is one of the businesses that could provide a significant amount of sales for ADI going forward, even at our size. So that's one of the things that we really are keeping the investment level up, despite what's going on with the rest of our business right now.

因此，我認為，即使以我們的規模，這也可能成為 ADI 未來的一項重要業務，因為它確實整合了一些我們認為非常獨特的非常核心的技術，而且即使您以相當優惠的價格出售這些產品對於這些光學公司來說，這些組件在物料清單中所佔的比例仍然很小，因此您在該產品上的利潤率非常低。所以現在還處於早期階段，現在說我們已經弄清楚所有這些並且我們知道會發生什麼當然還為時過早。這是可以為 ADI 提供大量銷售額的業務之一，即使以我們的規模而言也是如此。因此，這就是我們真正保持投資水準的原因之一，儘管我們的其他業務目前正在發生什麼情況。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Thank you Tore. The next question is from the Lenny Brecken with Feirstein Capital. Go ahead Lenny.

謝謝你托雷。下一個問題來自 Feirstein Capital 的 Lenny Brecken。萊尼，繼續吧。

Hi. It's Feirstein Capital. I guess we're touching around the issue that I'm going to get to. I mean if we look at the second half of next year, the analysts have you growing at a pretty nice rate, and I'm wondering the MEMS product, the Othello product, can you just outline other products that will be ramping in that period, when the...

你好。這是菲爾斯坦資本。我想我們正在討論我將要談到的問題。我的意思是，如果我們看看明年下半年，分析師認為您的增長速度相當不錯，我想知道 MEMS 產品、Othello 產品，您能否概述一下該時期將增長的其他產品， 當。。。的時候...

Period meaning the end of 2002?

這段時期是指 2002 年底嗎？

Yes, I'm sorry. What other products do you see driving the growth in the business?

是的，對不起。您認為還有哪些產品可以推動業務成長？

Well, I think that one way to think about what's really happened here is we've had, over the last 2 quarters throughout the year, an enormous contraction in our core business. I've been doing this for too many years at Analog, some would say, but many years, and I've never seen a sequential 20% decline in our analog business. So I think one of the reasons that there's a great of optimism as you get into 2002 is eventually we're going to see our core business beginning to return, and...

嗯，我認為思考這裡真正發生的事情的一種方法是，在全年的最後兩個季度中，我們的核心業務出現了巨大的收縮。有人會說，我在 Analog 做這件事已經很多年了，但是很多年了，我從未見過我們的模擬業務連續下降 20%。所以我認為，當你進入 2002 年時，人們感到非常樂觀的原因之一是，我們最終將看到我們的核心業務開始恢復，並且...

Would that be the majority of the growth then? Or is it...

那麼這會是成長的大部分嗎？或者說是...

Well, I'd say that that'll will be some part of the growth. I'd say and then you look on top of that at some of these emerging segments, be they in Broadband, be they in base stations, be they in handsets, be they in digital consumer, be they in PCs, we have 10,000 DSP designers writing code for our products. So I think if you look at some of the emerging communications businesses, the emerging PC businesses, digital consumer, I think we have some enormous opportunities going forward and if we can get a lift in some of those products and we can get a lift back to rational levels in our core business, that period of time we could see some good growth. Of course, nobody knows what's going to happen, and we certainly don't know what's going to happen, and we wouldn't want to lead you to believe that we do, but under this scenario that business conditions get better next year and our core business recovers and some of these vertical segments really start to take off, which I believe they can, we're pretty optimistic about our future. This thing that we've been talking about, about signal processing being the main growth engine for the semiconductor industry for the next 5 years, when we first started talking about that 2 years ago, nobody knew what we were talking about. Now I think a lot of people know what we're talking about, all you have to do is read some of Intel's press releases and others now that really believe, despite all the problems in communications and wireline and wireless and all these things going on, that is what is going to drive the semiconductor industry for the next 5-10 years, not PC growth.

嗯，我想說這將是成長的一部分。我想說的是，然後你再看看其中一些新興領域，無論是寬頻、基地台、手機、數位消費者、PC，我們有 10,000 個 DSP設計師為我們的產品編寫程式碼。所以我認為，如果你看看一些新興的通訊業務、新興的個人電腦業務、數位消費者，我認為我們未來有一些巨大的機會，如果我們能夠在其中一些產品上獲得提升，我們就可以獲得提升當我們的核心業務達到理性水平時，那段時間我們可以看到一些好的成長。當然，沒有人知道會發生什麼，我們當然也不知道會發生什麼，我們也不想讓你相信我們知道，但在這種情況下，明年的商業狀況會變得更好，我們的核心業務復甦，其中一些垂直領域真正開始起飛，我相信它們可以，我們對我們的未來非常樂觀。我們一直在談論訊號處理是未來 5 年半導體產業的主要成長引擎，當我們兩年前第一次開始談論這個問題時，沒有人知道我們在談論什麼。現在我想很多人都知道我們在說什麼，你所要做的就是閱讀英特爾的一些新聞稿和其他現在真正相信的新聞稿，儘管通信、有線和無線方面存在所有問題以及所有這些事情正在發生，這才是未來5-10 年推動半導體產業發展的因素，而不是PC 的成長。

Yeah.

是的。

And I think if you look at high performance analog and DSP and some of these emerging technologies, they are going to be the growth driver for these applications, and as long as we continue to innovate, and as long as we continue to get the right engineers, recruit them, get them working on the right stuff, I think we have a good shot at being an important company in these areas over the next couple of years. When that begins and exactly what quarter it is and all that stuff, I don't think we know. Until that time, what we're working on is trying to preserve our margins, and that's a balance between preserving our margins and continuing to invest in some of these things, and that's why we set this goal internally that we don't want to let the operating margins go below 20%, because it is a tradeoff between continuing to invest in some of these tremendous and great applications, and yet, sort of, as we would call it, preserving our financial dignity along the way. So that's the challenge for us.

我認為，如果你專注於高效能模擬和 DSP 以及其中一些新興技術，它們將成為這些應用的成長動力，只要我們繼續創新，只要我們繼續獲得正確的技術工程師，招募他們，讓他們從事正確的工作，我認為我們很有可能在未來幾年成為這些領域的重要公司。當這一切開始時，具體是哪個季度以及所有這些事情，我認為我們不知道。在那之前，我們正在努力保持我們的利潤，這是保持我們的利潤和繼續投資其中一些東西之間的平衡，這就是為什麼我們在內部設定了這個我們不希望的目標來讓營業利潤率低於20%，因為這是一個權衡，既要繼續投資於一些巨大而偉大的應用程序，又要保持我們的財務尊嚴，正如我們所說的那樣。這就是我們面臨的挑戰。

Earlier you commented you're the only production viable MEMS products?

早些時候您曾評論說您是​​唯一可量產的 MEMS 產品？

We are the only production MEMS fab in the world. We have that fab because last year we shipped 50 million MEMS devices to car manufacturers. So we've been down the road of hard knocks, and many of our long-term investors remember that, of learning how to build MEMS devices at low cost with high reliability, and it turns out that while that was the application that we originally invested MEMS for, increasingly, as we've indicated, we're going to be investing in the optical sense as well, but there isn't anybody else that can build those kinds of volumes in MEMS devices other than Analog Devices.

我們是世界上唯一生產 MEMS 的工廠。我們擁有這家工廠是因為去年我們向汽車製造商運送了 5,000 萬個 MEMS 設備。因此，我們一直在艱難的道路上前進，我們的許多長期投資者都記得，學習如何以低成本構建高可靠性的 MEMS 設備，事實證明，雖然這是我們最初的應用正如我們所指出的，我們越來越多地投資MEMS，我們也將投資於光學感測，但除了Analog Devices 之外，沒有其他人可以在MEMS 設備中建立這種體積。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. The next question comes to us from Michael Masdea with Credit Suisse First Boston. Go ahead Michael. Hello Michael, are you there? I will skip over him for the...

謝謝。下一個問題是瑞士信貸第一波士頓公司的 Michael Masdea 向我們提出的。繼續吧，麥可。你好，邁克爾，你在嗎？我會跳過他...

No, actually Michael's on an airplane, so can I ask the question for him?

不，實際上邁克爾在飛機上，所以我可以代他問這個問題嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Only if you say please.

只要你說請。

I'm Natalie [_______________], his associate. Michael's question is in coming out of a downturn, have you ever seen a time where your first up quarter in units was also a down quarter in revenue?

我是娜塔莉 [_______________]，他的同事。麥可的問題是，在走出低迷時期，您是否遇到過這樣的情況：單位數量的第一個季度的增長同時也是收入季度的下降？

No.

不。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

Alright. Thank you, and the next question then comes to us from Seth Dickson with Lehman Brothers. Go ahead Seth. Oh, that didn't work very well, looks like we got disconnected. So let's try Doug Rudisch with Brookside Capital, because I believe he has a question for us. Go ahead Doug.

好吧。謝謝，下一個問題是雷曼兄弟的塞思·迪克森向我們提出的。繼續吧塞斯。噢，這不太好，看起來我們已經斷線了。那麼，讓我們試試 Brookside Capital 的 Doug Rudisch，因為我相信他有一個問題要問我們。繼續吧，道格。

Yeah. Hi. Just want to make sure I understand something, please don't take this question the wrong way, but the last time you talked to us, I guess in this conference call you talked about signs getting better in terms of more churns orders and things of that nature. The last time you talked to us, I think the guidance for next quarter was less bad than it is now, if you follow what I'm saying. So I'm just trying to reconcile those two points. Things getting better at the end of the quarter, but now the revenue guidance is worse than what we had before. Thanks.

是的。你好。只是想確保我理解一些事情，請不要以錯誤的方式回答這個問題，但是上次您與我們交談時，我想在這次電話會議中您談到了在更多流失訂單和其他事情方面出現好轉的跡像那種性質。上次您與我們交談時，如果您遵循我的說法，我認為下一季的指導沒有現在那麼糟糕。所以我只是想調和這兩點。本季末情況有所好轉，但現在的收入指引比我們之前的要差。謝謝。

I think that's a good question. We suffered through the early parts of last quarter and right up until the end of the year, some very, very significant cancellations. So we are going into this quarter with less backlog than we would have thought when we first talked about it. That does require more churns business, which is not a bad assumption, but it's certainly not in the bag, and we don't exactly know if the cancellation rate, which has been declining, is going to continue to decline. I mean there are just a lot of unknowns out there, and we missed our revenue target the last two quarters by quite a bit. So we're trying to sort of set a number that we think we have a reasonable shot of making. We have July coming up, which is seasonally usually a poor month. We have many of our customers who are going to be closed for at least two or three weeks in July. So there are just too many unknowns out there to try to be precise, and we're trying to be cautious about what we think we could do.

我認為這是一個好問題。我們從上個季度初期一直到年底都遭受了一些非常非常重大的取消。因此，進入本季時，我們的積壓量將比我們第一次討論時想像的要少。這確實需要更多的客戶流失業務，這不是一個糟糕的假設，但它肯定不在囊中，而且我們並不確切知道一直在下降的取消率是否會繼續下降。我的意思是，那裡有很多未知因素，而且我們在過去兩個季度遠遠沒有達到我們的收入目標。因此，我們正在嘗試設定一個我們認為有合理機會實現的數字。七月即將到來，從季節性角度來看，這通常是一個糟糕的月份。我們的許多客戶將在 7 月關閉至少兩到三週。因此，存在太多的未知因素，無法做到精確，我們正努力對我們認為可以做的事情保持謹慎。

Right, and then just one followup. The early indications out of distribution, at least on a global basis in those guidance in terms of their complete product line, are that things are pretty slow moving out of distribution. Did you think your products are differentially better positioned? Thanks.

是的，然後只有一個後續。分銷的早期跡象，至少在全球範圍內，就其完整的產品線而言，分銷的進展相當緩慢。您認為您的產品有更好的定位嗎？謝謝。

Well, I think the analog business tends to do a little bit better in this part of the cycle than the other stuff, but I mean, we've seen now quite a few weeks of some stabilization on that business. Again, we don't know if that's going to continue, but all we can tell you is what we've seen so far, and we've seen the distri business stabilizing and some customers were still catching up with getting themselves supplied as they couldn't get last year. So, I mean, I want to be real clear that we don't really know what's going to happen in Q3 nor does anybody else, despite what everybody is saying about that we think it's going to get better. I think people are, what we're trying to communicate is the plan that we're going to operate the company under, and our scenario that we're going to operate the company under is about 10% down in sales from last quarter, and our scenario is that we're going to creep our way out of that slowly but surely after that, but as I said in the opening comments, we don't know that's going to happen. The evidence that we've seen, and I think for some of the reasons that you've pointed out is anecdotal, and I think we're just going to have to go through Q3 and see what happens before we can get more positive about that.

嗯，我認為模擬業務在周期的這一部分往往比其他業務做得更好一些，但我的意思是，我們現在已經看到該業務已經穩定了好幾個星期。再說一次，我們不知道這種情況是否會繼續下去，但我們所能告訴你的是我們迄今為止所看到的，我們已經看到分銷業務穩定下來，一些客戶仍在趕上自己的供應，因為他們去年拿不到。所以，我的意思是，我想明確表示，我們並不真正知道第三季會發生什麼，其他人也不知道，儘管每個人都在說我們認為情況會變得更好。我認為人們是，我們試圖傳達的是我們將運營公司的計劃，我們運營公司的設想是銷售額比上季度下降約 10%，我們的設想是，在那之後我們將緩慢但肯定地擺脫困境，但正如我在開場評論中所說，我們不知道這會發生。我們已經看到的證據，我認為由於您指出的某些原因是軼事，我認為我們必須先經歷第三季度，看看會發生什麼，然後才能獲得更積極的信息。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Okay. Thank you. I think we have just have one question left here in the first round, and then we'll be able to take a few questions on the second round over the next 15-20 minutes perhaps. Therefore, beginning now, dial-in participants can press '*1' on their phone to queue up for the second round. While we're waiting for those questions to appear, I'd like to mention that our third quarter earnings release will be scheduled for just after market close on Thursday, August 16. Our conference call will begin at 4:30 Eastern Time that day. So you might wish to note that on your calendar. Of course, we'll send you an email later on. Now to finish off the first round, we're going to try once again with Seth. I thought we were, I thought we're going to try with Seth Dickson there again. Let's see if we can get him, because it looks like we missed him the last time.

好的。謝謝。我認為第一輪我們只剩下一個問題，然後我們可能會在接下來的 15-20 分鐘內回答第二輪的幾個問題。因此，從現在開始，撥入參與者可以在手機上按「*1」來排隊參加第二輪。在我們等待這些問題出現的同時，我想提一下，我們的第三季收益發佈時間定於 8 月 16 日星期四收盤後。我們的電話會議將於當天東部時間 4:30 開始。因此，您可能希望在日曆上註明這一點。當然，我們稍後會向您發送電子郵件。現在，為了結束第一輪，我們將再次與賽斯嘗試。我以為我們是，我以為我們會再次嘗試與塞思·迪克森一起去那裡。讓我們看看是否能得到他，因為看起來我們上次錯過了他。

Are you there.

你在嗎。

Yeah, we got you.

是的，我們找到你了。

Okay. Great. This is [_______________] for Seth. I'm not sure if you provided this information earlier, but I was wondering if you could break down revenues by geography? And then second, maybe talk a little bit about what you're seeing in some of the different regions, specifically Europe and Asia?

好的。偉大的。這是賽斯的[_______________]。我不確定您之前是否提供了此信息，但我想知道您是否可以按地理位置細分收入？其次，也許可以談談您在一些不同地區，特別是歐洲和亞洲所看到的情況？

We can provide you that qualitatively right now. Brian?

我們現在就可以為您提供高品質的服務。布萊恩？

Yeah. This is Brian. I think the last quarter, if you compare the last quarter with the previous one there, the reality is that Japan and Southeast Asia were about the same, and Europe, in fact, was stronger than North America, and sort of gained a few percentage points as you look at that region, and that's basically the story. As you look at the regions in general, you would have seen a slight slowdown in the communications deployment business here in North America. Europe's still deploying DSL and the Broadband stuff pretty well. Japan and Southeast Asia, well, the overall business has declined, and percentages, yeah, they were the same for us.

是的。這是布萊恩。我認為上個季度，如果你將上個季度與上一個季度進行比較，現實情況是日本和東南亞的情況大致相同，而歐洲實際上比北美更強，並且增長了一些百分比當你觀察那個區域時，你會發現這些點，這基本上就是故事。從整體來看，您會發現北美地區的通訊部署業務略有放緩。歐洲仍在很好地部署 DSL 和寬頻產品。日本和東南亞，整體業務有所下降，百分比，是的，對我們來說是一樣的。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you, and we will start off now on the second round. The first question of second round comes from Nimal Vallipuram with DKW. Go ahead Nimal.

好的。謝謝，我們現在開始第二輪。第二輪第一題來自DKW的Nimal Vallipuram。尼馬爾，繼續吧。

Yeah, my question is that if you look at ADI, you have about 80% or so, 75%, that's for analog and mix signal, and the rest is DSP, but you also have some application-specific products. I don't want to call them ASICs, technically they are not, but they are at the end of the day very program-specific for the customers. Can you give us an idea going forward that any one of these program-specific products might be able to give you any sort of sales growth going forward, despite what is happening in the broad semiconductor industry? I guess, in summary, my question is any of the program-specific product are they immune from the industry downturn?

是的，我的問題是，如果你看看 ADI，你會發現大約 80% 左右、75% 用於模擬和混合訊號，其餘的是 DSP，但你也有一些特定於應用的產品。我不想稱它們為 ASIC，從技術上講它們不是，但歸根結底它們是針對客戶的特定程式。您能否給我們一個未來的想法，即儘管整個半導體行業正在發生什麼，這些特定於計劃的產品中的任何一種都可能能夠為您帶來任何形式的銷售增長？總而言之，我想我的問題是任何特定於計劃的產品是否能夠免受行業低迷的影響？

That's a hard question to answer, because we don't breakup, we don't have a very logical break out of how much is standard product and how much is application-specific product, but I don't think anything's immune if the cycle gets bad enough. So I really don't know the answer to your question. I just don't know.

這是一個很難回答的問題，因為我們沒有分裂，我們沒有一個非常合乎邏輯的突破來區分多少是標準產品和多少是特定於應用程序的產品，但我認為如果這個週期沒有任何東西可以倖免變得夠糟了。所以我真的不知道你問題的答案。我只是不知道。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Okay. Thank you Nimal. Terry Ragsdale with Goldman Sachs also has a second round question. Go ahead Terry.

好的。謝謝尼馬爾。高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的特里·拉格斯代爾 (Terry Ragsdale) 也有第二輪問題。繼續吧，特里。

Okay, a housekeeping question and then a real question. The housekeeping one is, tax rate guidance going forward, I think the rate was down a bit this quarter?

好的，先是一個內務問題，然後是一個真正的問題。內政問題是，未來的稅率指導，我認為本季稅率有所下降？

Yeah Terry. Joe McDonough. I think 29% is probably the best guidance to give.

是的，特里。喬麥克唐納。我認為 29% 可能是最好的指導。

Okay. Good, and then Jerry you mentioned earlier in the call that the aim that you were guys were taking about a number of quarters ago, even 18 months ago, about sort of a consolidation of your backend manufacturing overseas and that you're down to sort of the last bit here, but you haven't really gotten the savings of shutting down the infrastructure on the sort of non-overseas part. When you do get to do that and if you're able to accelerate it by a couple of quarters, what kind of savings are we talking about? Can you give us a way to think about that?

好的。很好，然後傑瑞，你早些時候在電話中提到，你們的目標是大約幾個季度前，甚至是 18 個月前，關於整合你們的海外後端製造，你們正在著手解決這裡的最後一點，但是您還沒有真正獲得關閉非海外部分基礎設施的節省。當您確實做到這一點並且能夠將其加速幾個季度時，我們談論的是哪種節省？你能給我們一個思考的方法嗎？

No, I can't give you the exact numbers, because we don't know exactly what infrastructure we could take out in the light, but it's a thing that shows up in the gross margins, and you'll see it; is the best I...

不，我不能給你確切的數字，因為我們不知道我們可以在光中刪除哪些基礎設施，但它會顯示在毛利率中，你會看到它；是最好的我...

I mean a point or two at a minimum?

我的意思是至少一兩分？

Yeah, between that range.

是的，在這個範圍之間。

Okay. Thanks.

好的。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you Terry. David Wu also has a second round question for us. Go ahead David.

好的。謝謝特里。吳大衛還有第二輪問題要問我們。大衛，繼續吧。

Yeah. Jerry can you give a general idea, give us a general idea, of what the lead times of your analog products are these days?

是的。 Jerry，您能給我們一個大概的了解嗎？您現在模擬產品的交貨時間是多少？

One of them is about 20 minutes.

其中一趟約20分鐘。

20 minutes.

20分鐘。

We have a few that are still lingering from post 2000 syndrome, but I'd say the lion's share of them are pretty available and lead times are quite short.

我們有一些仍處於 2000 年後綜合症的陰影中，但我想說，其中大部分是相當可用的，而且交貨時間也很短。

That's under 4 weeks, 2 weeks or so?

不到 4 週、2 週左右？

Well it varies vastly but certainly in that range.

嗯，它的變化很大，但肯定在這個範圍內。

Some of the product, David, is obviously in diestock, we will just have to pull through the backend, which could had a cycle time of a couple of weeks.

大衛，有些產品顯然是模具的，我們只需要通過後端，這可能需要幾週的週期時間。

What about, you mentioned about certain goals that you have for operating expenses. Obviously, in a year like this, nothing really works, but if we have reasonable growth next year, what is your target opex in terms of R&D and SG&A?

您提到了營運費用的某些目標。顯然，在這樣的一年裡，什麼都沒有真正起作用，但如果明年我們有合理的成長，那麼您在研發和銷售、管理及管理方面的目標營運支出是多少？

If you look to last year, we got up there at our peak of 34% operating profit, roughly, is that right Joe?

如果你看看去年，我們大概達到了營業利潤 34% 的峰值，喬是這樣嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

And that was when R&D got down there at about 16% of sales and SG&A was 11-12?

當時研發佔銷售額的比例約為 16%，SG&A 為 11-12？

SG&A was around 10 and engineering was around 14.

SG&A 約 10，工程約 14。

14. So our goal, I mean we thought that there was a pretty good goal, and we hadn't gotten a chance to look past there to see if we could do better than that given that the world started collapsing on us, but certainly getting back to those kind of levels is something that is on our mind to achieve as revenues get better, and I think it's not surprising that we could get back to those levels. R&D is right now running over 20% of sales, because the sales have gone down. SG&A is above where the model should be for SG&A. So I think we're grow into those numbers as the revenues start increasing, and if you look at some of the other programs that we're trying to do like what we just talked about before, if we can get back to those kind of operating margin levels when revenues get better, that's a pretty good target for us.

14.所以我們的目標，我的意思是我們認為有一個非常好的目標，而且我們沒有機會回顧那裡，看看我們是否可以做得更好，因為世界開始在我們身上崩潰，但當然隨著收入的改善，回到這樣的水平是我們想要實現的目標，我認為我們能夠回到這樣的水平並不奇怪。由於銷售額下降，研發目前佔銷售額的 20% 以上。 SG&A 高於 SG&A 模型應有的位置。因此，我認為隨著收入開始增加，我們正在成長為這些數字，如果你看看我們正在嘗試做的其他一些項目，就像我們之前談到的那樣，如果我們可以回到這些類型當收入好轉時，營業利潤率水準對我們來說是一個相當不錯的目標。

I assume that you're not, that we don't have a boom year next year?

我想你不會認為我們明年不會出現繁榮吧？

Pardon?

赦免？

I assume that we don't have a boom year next year to get back to those numbers, to those ratios?

我認為明年我們不會出現經濟繁榮來恢復這些數字和比率？

You're assuming that if we don't, we won't, or that...

你假設如果我們不這樣做，我們就不會這樣做，或者…

No, because the last time you achieved these ratios was during the boom year of 2000. I assume that you're not making those same kinds of revenue growth assumptions to get back to these ratios next year.

不，因為上次實現這些比率是在 2000 年的繁榮時期。我認為您不會做出同樣類型的收入成長假設來明年恢復這些比率。

No, I don't think we need those kinds of revenue growth assumptions, but we need some real revenue coverage to get back to those kinds of levels.

不，我認為我們不需要這種收入成長假設，但我們需要一些實際的收入覆蓋率才能回到這個水平。

Okay.

好的。

Don't need 80% revenue growth to do that like we had last year, but we've got to get back towards the kind of revenue level that we were at.

我們不需要像去年那樣實現 80% 的營收成長，但我們必須回到原來的營收水準。

That's it. Okay. Thank you.

就是這樣。好的。謝謝。

Thank you David. Tore Svanberg, Robertson Stephens has a second round question. Go ahead Tore.

謝謝大衛。托雷·思文凱 (Tore Svanberg)，羅伯遜·史蒂芬斯 (Robertson Stephens) 有第二輪問題。托雷，繼續吧。

Yes. Thank you. Just another question on DSL, you indicated that internationally things are more stable, but here in North America things are pretty weak. Can you give us a little more color there and also your forecast for ADSL chipsets this year?

是的。謝謝。關於 DSL 的另一個問題，您表示國際上的情況比較穩定，但在北美，情況相當薄弱。您能給我們更多資訊以及您對今年 ADSL 晶片組的預測嗎？

I can answer the first one, the second one I want to beg off on, but I think what we're saying in the US is if you take a look what's been announced publicly, Nortel has announced publicly that they're ahead of the DSL business, Cisco has announced publicly that, at least on the customer premises part of the DSL business, they're out. There's probably been 20 or 30 ILECs that have gone bankrupt in the US. So I'd say, add all those things up, it's not terribly surprising that the North American business is poor, and got this plenty of inventory at the OEMs in North America. So I think all those add up to the fact that that's why that business has turned profoundly weak over the last 6 months. I think we don't really know what's going to happen in DSL for the balance of the year in the United States, but certainly, we're more optimistic right now in Europe, in Germany and France, the UK, certainly in Korea, certainly in China, I mean those are all places that aren't suffering from the same kind of industry phenomena that the US companies are suffering from. The ILECs are deploying modestly in the US. So maybe that'll help a little bit, but I think the safe assumption is that at least in the United States throughout this year, it's going to be pretty soft.

我可以回答第一個，第二個我想迴避，但我認為我們在美國所說的是，如果你看看公開宣布的內容，北電已經公開宣布他們領先於DSL業務方面，思科已經公開宣布，至少在DSL業務的客戶端部分，他們退出了。美國可能有 20 或 30 個 ILEC 破產了。所以我想說，把所有這些因素加起來，北美業務不佳並不奇怪，而且北美的原始設備製造商有這麼多庫存。因此，我認為所有這些加起來就是一個事實，這就是該業務在過去 6 個月中變得極其疲軟的原因。我認為我們真的不知道今年剩下的時間 DSL 在美國會發生什麼，但當然，我們現在在歐洲、德國、法國、英國，當然還有韓國更加樂觀，當然在中國，我的意思是這些地方都沒有遭受美國公司所遭受的同類行業現象的困擾。 ILEC 在美國的部署規模不大。所以也許這會有所幫助，但我認為安全的假設是，至少在美國今年全年，情況將會相當疲軟。

Very good. Thank you.

非常好。謝謝。

Thank you Tore. [_______________] of Central Securities, I think has a question for us. You still with us there [_______________]?

謝謝你托雷。中央證券的[_______________]，我想有個問題要問我們。你還和我們在一起嗎[_______________]？

Yeah. Jerry.

是的。傑瑞。

Yes sir.

是的先生。

You said that, you went through all that strategic analysis about connecting Othello chips with your analog chips or using an interface chip to connect with somebody else's analog chip?

您說，您對將 Othello 晶片與您的類比晶片連接或使用介面晶片與其他人的類比晶片連接進行了所有戰略分析？

No. We were talking about connecting to the DSP baseband.

不。我們討論的是連接到 DSP 基帶。

Okay.

好的。

What easily connects to the analog world with our analog chips. We're not going to make it real easy for Othello to connect anyone's analog chips. The debate we also have is should we make it easy to connect to other's DSP chips.

透過我們的類比晶片輕鬆連接到模擬世界。我們不會讓 Othello 連接任何人的類比晶片變得非常容易。我們還存在的爭論是我們是否應該使其能夠輕鬆連接到其他 DSP 晶片。

I've got you.

我有你。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you [_______________]. Shekhar Wadekar with Dain Rauscher has a question there. Go ahead Shekhar.

謝謝 [_______________]。 Shekhar Wadekar 和 Dain Rauscher 有一個問題。謝卡爾加油。

Hi. Good afternoon gentlemen. Congratulations on the Othello Type approval. Quick question for you given that it's a triple-band phone, is there one or multiple radios in there?

你好。先生們下午好。祝賀奧賽羅類型獲得批准。快速問你一個問題，鑑於這是一款三頻手機，其中是否有一個或多個收音機？

Mr. Johnsen?

約翰森先生？

Othello by its very nature is just a single radio to be able to do all of that.

Othello 本質上只是一台能夠完成所有這些操作的收音機。

That's why that's such a big deal.

這就是為什麼這很重要。

You will have multiple synthesizers?

您將擁有多個合成器？

It's all one chip basically that does all the synthesis frequency requirements.

基本上，這都是一個晶片可以滿足所有合成頻率要求。

Okay. Great. Thank you.

好的。偉大的。謝謝。

Okay. Thank you Shekhar. Joe Osha with Merrill Lynch has another question as well here in the second round. Go ahead Joe.

好的。謝謝謝卡爾。美林證券的喬·奧沙在第二輪還有另一個問題。繼續吧，喬。

Okay. Thank you Jim. Just wondering if we can get an update on the status of the JV basebands that you're working on with Intel. They've been making some noise about it, but I haven't heard anything from you guys?

好的。謝謝吉姆。只是想知道我們是否可以獲得有關您與英特爾合作的合資基帶的最新狀態。他們一直在鬧騰，但我沒有聽到你們的任何消息？

I think whatever noise they're making, we probably make the same noise. The JV has produced a great DSP core. Intel, obviously, is very excited about the ability to use that core, and it's the essence of their announcements on their thrust and wireless communications. We believe that core is going to be a central core, particularly with its follow-on products that we're planning over the next 5 years for ADI. So I think our signals are full speed ahead. I think there's some great opportunities for us in general purpose DSP using that core, and I think there's also some great opportunities to embed this core into some of the vertical segments.

我認為無論他們發出什麼噪音，我們可能也會發出相同的噪音。該合資公司生產了出色的 DSP 核心。顯然，英特爾對使用該核心的能力感到非常興奮，這也是他們關於推力和無線通訊的公告的本質。我們相信該核心將成為核心，特別是我們計劃在未來 5 年內為 ADI 推出的後續產品。所以我認為我們的訊號正在全速前進。我認為我們在使用該核心的通用 DSP 方面有一些很好的機會，而且我認為也有一些很好的機會將該核心嵌入到一些垂直領域。

Do I understand from your comments then, it sounds to me, you kind of thought this already, why you guys are making an effort to sort of give up the end market such that you don't compete with each other, and it sounds like you're interested in a little more general purpose and infrastructure, and kind of leaving the wireless to Intel? Is that a fair characterization?

從你的評論中我是否理解，在我看來，你已經想到了這一點，為什麼你們正在努力放棄終端市場，這樣你們就不會相互競爭，聽起來就像你們對更通用的用途和基礎設施有興趣，並將無線技術留給英特爾？這是一個公平的描述嗎？

We would never divide up the market. That's illegal. I think, clearly, we're going to look at markets that play to our strength, and our strength in the DSP market is heavily where our analog and mix signal content really carries the day. I think Intel is going to look for market segments in the vertical spaces where when they hook up the same DSP core to their XScale processor that they see that being an advantage, and I think that we'll figure out where those markets are, Intel will figure where those markets are. Eventually the customers will decide, which is the integration that they are most interested in, and I think that'll really determine where we sell our products and where Intel sells their products. I think at the end of the day the customers will decide.

我們永遠不會瓜分市場。這是非法的。我認為，顯然，我們將著眼於發揮我們優勢的市場，而我們在 DSP 市場的優勢主要在於我們的模擬和混合訊號內容真正佔據主導地位。我認為英特爾將在垂直領域尋找細分市場，當他們將相同的 DSP 核心連接到 XScale 處理器時，他們認為這是一個優勢，我認為我們會弄清楚這些市場在哪裡，英特爾將弄清楚這些市場在哪裡。最終客戶將決定他們最感興趣的集成，我認為這將真正決定我們在哪裡銷售我們的產品以及英特爾在哪裡銷售他們的產品。我認為最終客戶會做出決定。

Okay. Thank you very much. That's helpful.

好的。非常感謝。這很有幫助。

Sure.

當然。

Okay. Thank you Joe. Next we have Drew Peck with another question. Drew?

好的。謝謝喬。接下來，德魯·佩克（Drew Peck）提出了另一個問題。德魯？

Yeah. I recall in the past Jerry, you've given a figure regarding what percentage of your new products, I think you defined that as in last 18 months represented sales. Has there been any change in that? And obviously the core of the question is whether or not the new products are surviving better than the older products in the downturn?

是的。我記得傑瑞過去曾給出過一個關於新產品百分比的數字，我認為您將其定義為過去 18 個月的銷售額。這方面有什麼變化嗎？顯然，問題的核心是，在經濟低迷時期，新產品是否比老產品生存得更好？

I don't have the number handy. We can get it to you, but of course, the new products are doing better than the existing products. The designing rates are still extremely high. So I don't have the number for you handy, but we're pretty excited about the new product presence that we have out here, the designing rates are just great, and we're surprised at that because you would think that many companies are cutting back on some of the new programs, but in many of our largest customers, I think they are increasingly believing that the real hope out this cycle is their new product, and I have to agree with that. I mean, the way to get out of this cycle is with new products, and that's why it's not surprising that our newest products are doing the best.

我手邊沒有號碼。我們可以為您提供，但當然，新產品比現有產品做得更好。設計率仍然非常高。所以我手頭上沒有這個號碼，但我們對我們在這裡推出的新產品感到非常興奮，設計率非常好，我們對此感到驚訝，因為你會認為很多公司正在削減一些新項目，但在我們許多最大的在客戶中，我認為他們越來越相信這個週期的真正希望是他們的新產品，我必須同意這一點。我的意思是，擺脫這個循環的方法是推出新產品，這就是為什麼我們的最新產品表現最好也就不足為奇了。

Okay. And lastly, many, many questions ago, the subject came up of whether the gross margins actually went up sequentially when you take out the $20 million inventory charge. You never directly addressed that. Was that in fact the case?

好的。最後，在很多很多問題之前，有人提出了當你扣除 2000 萬美元的庫存費用後，毛利率是否真的會連續上升。你從來沒有直接提到過這個問題。事實果真如此嗎？

Well, I think what Joe basically said, just to put it in context is, the $20 million was larger than normal, which you'd expect in this part of the cycle where we build stuff, and though we try to make sure customers take everything they want to, sometimes they win some of the negotiations. And I think if you looked at and you said that somewhere around half of that was normal, then you'd say, you'd come to the conclusion that the gross margins at ADI, despite the fact that utilization is not extremely high in our wafer fabs, our gross margin, because of the mix shift, primarily towards the analog products, our gross margin is doing quite well.

好吧，我認為喬基本上所說的是，只是將其放在上下文中，2000 萬美元比正常情況要多，這是您在我們構建產品的周期的這一部分中所期望的，儘管我們努力確保客戶接受他們想要的一切，有時他們會贏得一些談判。我認為，如果您查看並說大約一半左右是正常的，那麼您會說，您會得出這樣的結論：ADI 的毛利率，儘管事實上我們的利用率不是很高。晶圓廠，我們的毛利率，由於混合轉移，主要轉向模擬產品，我們的毛利率表現相當不錯。

Got it. Okay. Thanks.

知道了。好的。謝謝。

And by the way, that's despite our inventories going down by $38 million this quarter.

順便說一下，儘管本季我們的庫存減少了 3800 萬美元。

Got it. Okay. Thanks.

知道了。好的。謝謝。

And that mix shift is the reason, Drew, why we have had some degree of confidence that we could hold the gross margins. Now all of it depends on the way the business environment goes, but based on the assumptions that we're looking at, we think the gross margin in the 55% or 56% next quarter, are realistic type assumptions.

德魯，這種混合轉變就是我們對維持毛利率有一定信心的原因。現在所有這些都取決於商業環境的發展方式，但根據我們正在考慮的假設，我們認為下個季度毛利率在 55% 或 56% 是現實類型的假設。

And I assume that's including whatever write-downs may become necessary by your experience?

我認為這包括根據您的經驗可能需要的任何減記？

Normal, more normal write-downs.

正常，更正常的減記。

Got it. Thanks.

知道了。謝謝。

Thanks Drew. Our last question today comes to us from John Joseph with Salomon Smith Barney. Go ahead John. We didn't get a take on you there. Let's try it again. We're still not. It's not switching like it's supposed to. I'm afraid, being the case John, we're not going to be able to get that question in. I'm sorry. Our system seems to not want to recognize your call there. So that will complete today's conference call. On behalf of Jerry Fishman and all the rest of us here at Analog, we'd like to thank you for your interest in ADI and for taking the time to be with us, and we look forward to talking with all of you again during our second quarter call scheduled for Thursday, August 16th, which will begin at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time. Thanks again, and goodbye for now.

謝謝德魯。今天的最後一個問題是約翰約瑟夫 (John Joseph) 和所羅門美邦 (Salomon Smith Barney) 向我們提出的。繼續吧約翰。我們在那裡沒有得到你的意見。讓我們再試一次。我們還不是。它沒有像應該的那樣切換。恐怕，約翰，我們無法提出這個問題。我很抱歉。我們的系統似乎不想識別您的呼叫。今天的電話會議到此結束。我們謹代表 Jerry Fishman 和 Analog 公司的所有其他人感謝您對 ADI 的興趣並抽出時間與我們在一起，我們期待在我們的會議期間再次與大家交談。第二季度電話會議定於8 月16 日星期四下午4:30 開始。東部時間。再次感謝，現在再見。