Enact Holdings Inc (ACT) 2025 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Enact second-quarter earnings conference call. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

您好，歡迎參加 Enact 第二季財報電話會議。請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Daniel Kohl, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在，我想將會議交給第一位發言人，投資者關係副總裁丹尼爾·科爾 (Daniel Kohl)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our second-quarter earnings call. Joining me today are Rohit Gupta, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dean Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Rohit will provide an overview of our business performance and progress against our strategy. Dean will then discuss the details of our quarterly results before turning the call back to Rohit for closing remarks. We will then take your questions.

謝謝，早安。歡迎參加我們的第二季財報電話會議。今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Rohit Gupta 和財務長兼財務主管 Dean Mitchell。Rohit 將概述我們的業務表現和策略進展。然後，Dean 將討論我們季度業績的細節，然後將電話轉回給 Rohit 進行結束語。然後我們將回答您的問題。

The earnings materials we issued after market close yesterday contain our financial results for the quarter, along with a comprehensive set of financial and operational metrics. These are available on the Investor Relations section of our website.

我們昨天收盤後發布的收益資料包含本季的財務業績，以及一套全面的財務和營運指標。這些資訊可在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's call is being recorded and will include the use of forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current assumptions, estimates, expectations and projections as of today's date. Additionally, they are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to be materially different and we undertake no obligation to update or revise such statements as a result of new information.

今天的電話會議將被錄音，並將包含前瞻性陳述。這些聲明是基於截至今天的當前假設、估計、預期和預測。此外，它們還受到風險和不確定性的影響，這可能導致實際結果大不相同，並且我們不承擔根據新資訊更新或修改此類聲明的義務。

For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements in today's press release as well as in our filings with the SEC, which will be available on our website. Please keep in mind the earnings materials and management's prepared remarks today include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most relevant GAAP metrics can be found in the press release, our earnings presentation and our upcoming SEC filing on our website.

有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，請參閱今天的新聞稿以及我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中有關前瞻性陳述的警示性語言，這些文件將在我們的網站上提供。請記住，今天的收益資料和管理層準備的評論包括某些非 GAAP 指標。這些指標與最相關的 GAAP 指標的對帳可以在新聞稿、我們的收益報告以及我們網站上即將提交給 SEC 的文件中找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rohit.

說完這些，我會把電話轉給羅希特。

Thank you, Daniel. Good morning, everyone. Enact closed out the first half of the year with another strong quarter. Our results continue to reflect the disciplined execution of our strategy, robust credit performance, and our ongoing commitment to creating long-term value for our shareholders.

謝謝你，丹尼爾。大家早安。Enact 以另一個強勁的季度結束了今年上半年。我們的業績繼續體現出我們策略的嚴格執行、強勁的信貸表現以及我們為股東創造長期價值的持續承諾。

To that end, we are pleased to announce a meaningful increase in our expected capital returns for 2025 to approximately $400 million, which we will discuss in more detail later. For the second quarter, we reported adjusted operating income of $174 million, while adjusted earnings per diluted share was $1.15. Additionally, adjusted return on equity was over 13%. Insurance In-Force increased 1% year over year to $270 billion, and we generated robust new insurance written of over $13 billion.

為此，我們很高興地宣布，我們預期 2025 年的資本回報率將大幅增加至約 4 億美元，我們將在稍後詳細討論。第二季度，我們調整後的營業收入為1.74億美元，調整後每股稀釋收益為1.15美元。此外，調整後的股本報酬率超過13%。有效保險額年增 1%，達到 2,700 億美元，我們創造了超過 130 億美元的新保險承保額。

We continue to successfully navigate a complex macroeconomic environment. While certain indicators such as labor market resilience, moderating wage growth, and the overall health of our borrowers remain strong, uncertainties persist. In particular, the lack of near-term clarity around trade policy and the potential implementation of reciprocal tariffs has introduced additional volatility to the outlook. Affordability continues to be challenged. And while home inventories have started to build up in certain geographies, there are more buyers than sellers at the national level.

我們持續成功應對複雜的宏觀經濟環境。儘管勞動力市場彈性、工資成長放緩以及借款人整體健康狀況等某些指標仍然強勁，但不確定性仍然存在。尤其是短期內貿易政策缺乏明確性以及可能實施的互惠關稅給前景帶來了額外的波動。負擔能力繼續受到挑戰。儘管某些地區的房屋庫存已開始增加，但從全國範圍來看，買家的數量仍多於賣家。

Having said that, our business is supported by strong demographic trends, especially within the historical first-time homebuyer segment. Overall, we continue to remain optimistic about the long-term health of the US housing market. Against this backdrop, our capital position and credit performance remain key strengths.

話雖如此，我們的業務受到強勁的人口趨勢的支持，尤其是在歷史上首次購房者群體中。總體而言，我們繼續對美國房地產市場的長期健康狀況保持樂觀。在此背景下，我們的資本狀況和信貸表現仍是主要優勢。

At quarter end, we reported PMIERs sufficiency ratio of 165%, providing significant financial flexibility and our credit portfolio remains in excellent shape. At the end of the second quarter, approximately 7% of our Insurance In-Force had mortgage rates at least 50 basis points above June's average mortgage rate of 6.8% and the credit quality of our insured portfolio remains strong. The risk-weighted average FICO score of the portfolio was 746. The risk-weighted average loan-to-value ratio was 93% and layered risk was 1.2% of Risk In-Force.

在季度末，我們報告的 PMIER 充足率為 165%，提供了顯著的財務靈活性，我們的信貸組合仍然保持良好狀態。截至第二季末，我們約有 7% 的有效保險的抵押貸款利率至少比 6 月份的平均抵押貸款利率 6.8% 高出 50 個基點，而且我們承保組合的信用品質依然強勁。此投資組合的風險加權平均 FICO 評分為 746。風險加權平均貸款成數為 93%，分層風險為有效風險的 1.2%。

Pricing was again constructive in the quarter and we maintained our commitment to prudent underwriting standards. Our pricing engine, Rate 360, allows us to deliver competitive pricing on a risk-adjusted basis, and we continue to prudently underwrite and select risk.

本季定價再次具有建設性，我們繼續堅持審慎的承保標準。我們的定價引擎 Rate 360 使我們能夠在風險調整的基礎上提供具有競爭力的定價，並且我們繼續審慎承保和選擇風險。

We saw favorable delinquency and cure performance during the quarter that followed typical seasonal sequential trends. Total delinquencies were down 1% sequentially, with new delinquencies also decreasing by 5%. Strong embedded equity, combined with our effective loss mitigation efforts, helped drive robust cure performance with a cure rate of 52%. This drove a reserve release of $48 million and our resulting loss ratio for the quarter was 10%. Credit performance remains strong, and we are well reserved for a range of scenarios.

我們在本季看到了良好的拖欠和補救表現，遵循了典型的季節性連續趨勢。總拖欠率季減 1%，新拖欠率也下降了 5%。強大的內含權益，加上我們有效的損失緩解措施，幫助推動了強勁的治癒表現，治癒率達到 52%。這導致儲備金釋放 4,800 萬美元，導致本季的損失率為 10%。信貸表現依然強勁，我們對一系列情景做好了充分準備。

On the expense front, we maintained our disciplined approach to expense management while investing in technologies and processes that improve customer experience and our business operations. Despite the ongoing inflationary environment, our expenses, excluding restructuring charges, were flat year over year. We continue to advance on all capital allocation priorities to support existing policyholders by maintaining a strong balance sheet, invest in our business to drive organic growth and efficiencies, fund attractive new business opportunities to diversify our platform, and return excess capital to shareholders.

在費用方面，我們保持了嚴謹的費用管理方法，同時投資於改善客戶體驗和業務運營的技術和流程。儘管通膨環境持續存在，但我們的支出（不包括重組費用）比去年同期持平。我們將繼續推進所有資本配置優先事項，透過維持強勁的資產負債表來支持現有保單持有人，投資於我們的業務以推動有機增長和效率，為有吸引力的新業務機會提供資金以實現平台多元化，並將多餘的資本返還給股東。

As it relates to diversification, Enact Re continues to build momentum as we participate in single and multifamily GSE CRT transactions. Enact Re remains capital and expense efficient and is contributing to our long-term earnings profile. As it relates to capital returns, during the second quarter, we returned $116 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. And as I mentioned earlier, we are increasing our expected capital returns to approximately $400 million for the year.

就多樣化而言，隨著我們參與單戶和多戶 GSE CRT 交易，Enact Re 繼續保持強勁勢頭。Enact Re 保持了資本和費用的高效性，並為我們的長期獲利狀況做出了貢獻。就資本回報而言，第二季度，我們透過股票回購和股利向股東返還了 1.16 億美元。正如我之前提到的，我們將今年的預期資本回報率提高到約 4 億美元。

Before handing the call over to Dean, I wanted to take a moment to recognize our culture and our people. For the third year, Enact was recognized as one of the Best Places to Work by Triangle Business Journal. We take pride in fostering an environment where our teams can thrive and do their best work in the service of our customers and stakeholders and are very pleased to have received this recognition.

在將電話交給 Dean 之前，我想花點時間來了解我們的文化和我們的人民。Enact 連續第三年被《三角商業雜誌》評為最佳工作場所之一。我們為營造一個讓我們的團隊能夠蓬勃發展、為客戶和利害關係人提供最佳服務的環境而感到自豪，並非常高興獲得這項認可。

Overall, we are pleased with our performance through the first half of 2025. We are navigating a complex environment from a position of strength supported by robust new insurance written with excellent credit quality, a strong balance sheet, and prudent expense management. Additionally, we are working closely with our lending partners, the GSEs, and the administration to ensure we are well positioned to adapt to any regulatory changes.

整體而言，我們對 2025 年上半年的表現感到滿意。我們憑藉強大的實力在複雜的環境中前行，這得益於我們擁有優良信用品質、強勁的資產負債表和審慎的費用管理等強勁的新保險業務。此外，我們正在與我們的貸款合作夥伴、政府支援企業和政府部門密切合作，以確保我們能夠適應任何監管變化。

We were excited to see that MI premiums have become tax deductible again. With the support of a highly engaged team, we are focused on executing our strategy and maximizing value for our shareholders.

我們很高興地看到 MI 保費再次可以免稅。在高度敬業的團隊的支持下，我們專注於執行我們的策略並實現股東價值最大化。

With that, I will now hand it over to Dean to walk through our financial results in more detail.

現在，我將把時間交給 Dean，讓他更詳細地介紹我們的財務表現。

Thanks, Rohit. Good morning, everyone. Adjusted operating income was $174 million or $1.15 per diluted share compared to $1.27 per diluted share in the same period last year and $1.10 per diluted share in the first quarter of 2025. Adjusted operating return on equity was 13.4%. A detailed reconciliation of GAAP net income to adjusted operating income can be found in our earnings release.

謝謝，羅希特。大家早安。調整後營業收入為 1.74 億美元，即每股攤薄收益 1.15 美元，而去年同期每股攤薄收益為 1.27 美元，2025 年第一季每股攤薄收益為 1.10 美元。調整後的營業股本報酬率為13.4%。在我們的收益報告中可以找到 GAAP 淨收入與調整後營業收入的詳細對帳表。

Turning to revenue drivers. New insurance written was $13 billion, up 35% sequentially and down 3% year over year. The sequential increase was primarily driven by mortgage origination seasonality from the spring selling season. Persistency was 82% in the second quarter, down 2 points sequentially and down 1 point year over year.

轉向收入驅動因素。新承保保險金額為 130 億美元，較上季成長 35%，年減 3%。環比成長主要是由於春季銷售旺季的抵押貸款發放季節性所致。第二季的持續率為82%，較上一季下降2個百分點，較去年同期下降1個百分點。

Our portfolio remains resilient with 7% of our mortgages having rates at least 50 basis points above June's average of 6.8%. We expect elevated persistency will continue to help offset the potential impact of higher mortgage rates on the origination market.

我們的投資組合仍保持彈性，其中 7% 的抵押貸款利率至少比 6 月的平均利率 6.8% 高出 50 個基點。我們預計，持續性的提高將繼續幫助抵消更高的抵押貸款利率對發起市場的潛在影響。

Given the combination of solid new insurance written and elevated persistency, primary Insurance In-Force was $270 billion in the second quarter, up $2 billion or 1% from the first quarter of 2025 and $4 billion or approximately 1% year over year. Total net premiums earned were $245 million, flat sequentially and up modestly year over year. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by premium growth from attractive adjacencies and the growth of our mortgage insurance portfolio, mostly offset by higher ceded premiums.

鑑於新承保保險業務穩健且持續性提高，第二季主要有效保險金額達到 2,700 億美元，比 2025 年第一季增加 20 億美元（1%），比去年同期增加 40 億美元（約 1%）。總淨保費收入為 2.45 億美元，與上一季持平，與去年同期相比略有成長。年成長主要得益於有吸引力的鄰近地區的保費成長以及我們的抵押貸款保險組合的成長，但大部分被更高的分出保費所抵消。

Our base premium rate of 39.8 basis points was down 0.3 basis points sequentially, aligned with our expectation for base premium rate in 2025 to stabilize around 2024 levels. As a reminder, our base premium rate is impacted by several factors and tends to modestly fluctuate from quarter to quarter. Our net earned premium rate was 35.2 basis points, relatively flat sequentially. Investment income in the second quarter was $66 million, up $3 million or 5% sequentially and up $6 million or 10% year over year. Our new money investment yield continued to exceed 5%, lifting our overall portfolio book yield.

我們的基本保費率為 39.8 個基點，環比下降 0.3 個基點，與我們對 2025 年基本保費率穩定在 2024 年水準左右的預期一致。提醒一下，我們的基本保費率受到多種因素的影響，每季都會有小幅波動。我們的淨保費率為 35.2 個基點，與上一季基本持平。第二季投資收入為 6,600 萬美元，較上一季增加 300 萬美元（成長 5%），比去年同期增加 600 萬美元（成長 10%）。新資金投資收益率持續超過5%，帶動整體投資組合帳面收益率提升。

As previously stated, while we typically hold investments to maturity, we may selectively pursue income enhancement opportunities. During the quarter, we sold certain assets that will allow us to recoup realized losses through future higher net investment income.

如前所述，雖然我們通常持有投資直至到期，但我們可能有選擇地尋求增加收入的機會。在本季度，我們出售了某些資產，這將使我們能夠透過未來更高的淨投資收益來彌補已實現的損失。

Turning to credit performance. New delinquencies decreased sequentially to 11,600 in the quarter from 12,200 in the first quarter of 2025, in line with expected seasonal trends. Our new delinquency rate remained consistent with pre-pandemic levels and for the quarter at 1.2%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the 1.3% in the first quarter of 2025 and 1.1% in the second quarter of 2024.

轉向信用表現。新的拖欠情況從 2025 年第一季的 12,200 起環比下降至本季的 11,600 起，符合預期的季節性趨勢。我們的新拖欠率與疫情前的水準保持一致，本季為 1.2%，與 2025 年第一季的 1.3% 和 2024 年第二季的 1.1% 相比下降了 10 個基點。

The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by higher new delinquencies from the normal loss development pattern of newer books. We maintained our claim rate on new delinquencies at 9%. Total delinquencies and the delinquency rate of 2.3% in the second quarter were flat sequentially as cures kept pace with news.

年比成長主要是由於新帳簿的正常損失發展模式導致新的拖欠率上升。我們將新拖欠債務的索賠率維持在 9%。由於治療措施與新聞報導同步，第二季總拖欠率和 2.3% 的拖欠率與上一季持平。

Losses in the second quarter of 2025 were $25 million and the loss ratio was 10% compared to $31 million and 12%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025 and negative $17 million and negative 7%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2024. The current quarter's reserve release was $48 million, driven by ongoing favorable cure performance and loss mitigation activities.

2025 年第二季的虧損為 2,500 萬美元，虧損率為 10%，而 2025 年第一季的虧損分別為 3,100 萬美元和 12%，2024 年第二季的虧損分別為負 1,700 萬美元和負 7%。本季的儲備金釋放為 4,800 萬美元，這得益於持續良好的治療效果和損失緩解活動。

Turning to operating expenses. Operating expenses for the second quarter of 2025 were $53 million and the expense ratio was 22% compared to $53 million and 21%, respectively, in the first quarter of 2025 and $56 million and 23%, respectively, in the second quarter of 2024. For 2025 operating expenses, we continue to anticipate a range of $220 million to $225 million, excluding reorganization costs.

談到營運費用。2025 年第二季的營運費用為 5,300 萬美元，費用率為 22%，而 2025 年第一季的營運費用分別為 5,300 萬美元和 21%，2024 年第二季的營運費用分別為 5,600 萬美元和 23%。對於 2025 年的營運費用，我們繼續預計在 2.2 億美元至 2.25 億美元之間（不包括重組成本）。

We continue to operate from a strong capital and liquidity position, reinforced by our robust PMIERs sufficiency and the successful execution of our diversified CRT program. PMIERs sufficiency was 165% or $2 billion above PMIERs requirements at the end of the second quarter. As of June 30, 2025, our third-party CRT program provides $1.9 billion of PMIERs capital credit.

我們繼續以強大的資本和流動性狀況運營，這得益於我們強大的 PMIER 充足性和多元化 CRT 計劃的成功執行。截至第二季末，PMIER 的充足率比 PMIER 的要求高出 165%，即 20 億美元。截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，我們的第三方 CRT 計畫提供了 19 億美元的 PMIER 資本信貸。

Let me now turn to capital allocation. During the quarter, we paid out $31 million or $0.21 per share through our quarterly dividend. Today, we announced a third-quarter dividend of $0.21 per common share payable September 8. In addition, we bought 2.4 million shares for $85 million in the second quarter of 2025. Through July 25, we repurchased an additional 0.8 million shares for $30 million.

現在讓我來談談資本配置。本季度，我們透過季度股息支付了 3,100 萬美元或每股 0.21 美元。今天，我們宣布第三季股息為每股 0.21 美元，將於 9 月 8 日支付。此外，我們在 2025 年第二季以 8,500 萬美元購買了 240 萬股。截至 7 月 25 日，我們又以 3,000 萬美元回購了 80 萬股。

As Rohit mentioned earlier, we are increasing our 2025 total capital return guidance to approximately $400 million. As in the past, the final amount and form of capital return to shareholders will depend on business performance, market conditions and regulatory approvals. Overall, we are pleased with our performance in the first half of 2025, and we believe we are well-positioned for the second half. We remain focused on prudently managing risk, maintaining a strong balance sheet and delivering solid returns for our shareholders.

正如 Rohit 先前所提到的，我們將 2025 年總資本回報預期提高至約 4 億美元。與過去一樣，最終向股東返還資本的金額和形式將取決於經營業績、市場狀況和監管部門的批准。總體而言，我們對 2025 年上半年的表現感到滿意，並相信我們已為下半年做好了準備。我們將繼續專注於審慎管理風險、維持強勁的資產負債表並為股東帶來豐厚的回報。

With that, let me turn the call back over to Rohit.

說完這些，讓我把電話轉回給羅希特。

Thanks, Dean. Looking ahead, we are confident in our ability to navigate complex and evolving macroeconomic environments. Our strong balance sheet, disciplined risk management and thoughtful approach to capital deployment provide meaningful flexibility as we execute our strategy. We remain grounded in our mission to help people responsibly achieve the dream of homeownership, which continues to guide how we serve our customers, support our communities, and create long-term value for all our stakeholders.

謝謝，迪恩。展望未來，我們對自己應對複雜多變的宏觀經濟環境的能力充滿信心。我們強大的資產負債表、嚴格的風險管理和周到的資本配置方法為我們執行策略提供了有意義的靈活性。我們始終堅守我們的使命，幫助人們負責任地實現擁有住房的夢想，這將繼續指導我們如何服務客戶、支持社區並為所有利益相關者創造長期價值。

Operator, we are now ready for Q&A.

接線員，我們現在可以進行問答了。

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝。這次，我們將進行問答環節。（操作員指示）

Doug Harter, UBS.

瑞銀的道格·哈特。

I was hoping you could talk about the seasoning of the recent origination vintages and how you might -- how you think some of the regional home price weakness might affect the seasoning of those newer vintages?

我希望您能談談最近推出的葡萄酒的釀造情況，以及您認為某些地區房價疲軟可能會如何影響這些新葡萄酒的釀造？

Doug, this is Rohit. I will have Dean start on the performance of the recent vintages and then I'll add color on the regional home price declines.

道格，這是羅希特。我請 Dean 先介紹一下最近幾季的表現，然後我會補充介紹一下區域房價下跌的情況。

Yeah. So Doug, just lifting up real quick, I'd say overall credit performance remains very strong through the second quarter. Lots of reasons for that, meaningful embedded HPA across our insured portfolio is certainly one of the reasons, but also we're operating in a pretty resilient economy. And the US consumer remains pretty strong, whether it's employment, wage growth, balance sheet. and the like.

是的。所以道格，簡單說一下，我想說的是，第二季的整體信貸表現仍然非常強勁。造成這種情況的原因有很多，我們的保險組合中嵌入有意義的 HPA 當然是原因之一，而且我們正處於一個相當有彈性的經濟環境中。美國消費者依然保持強勁，無論是就業、薪資成長、資產負債表等等。

So credit -- that backdrop of credit performance being strong, I think, should cover any evaluation of loss performance for the quarter. I think in terms of geographies, certainly at a national level, very similar to what I said in terms of credit performance, very good performance. Home inventories remain healthy with housing supply, I think, at about 4.5 months. That's below the six-month a level that we consider as an equilibrium.

因此，我認為，信貸表現強勁的背景應該可以涵蓋對本季虧損表現的任何評估。我認為從地理角度來看，當然從國家層級來看，與我所說的信貸表現非常相似，表現非常好。我認為住房庫存保持健康，住房供應量約為 4.5 個月。這低於我們認為的六個月平衡水平。

I would say there are some markets where inventories have risen and created some softness in a particular market. I think the most notable example given the Wall Street Journal article from a couple of weeks ago is Cape Coral, where inventories have risen sharply and supply is outpacing demand. I think in this particular instance, Cape Coral makes up a very small part of our overall portfolio.

我想說的是，有些市場的庫存已經增加，並導致特定市場出現一些疲軟。我認為，幾週前《華爾街日報》文章中最值得注意的例子是開普科勒爾，那裡的庫存急劇增加，供應超過了需求。我認為在這個特定情況下，Cape Coral 只占我們整體投資組合的一小部分。

But maybe thinking about that more broadly, in geographies where supply has grown or is trending higher, we adjust our pricing to reflect the impact of not just current home prices, but future home prices into our pricing equation. Our risk-based pricing approach applies what we believe is the right price for the right risk for both credit attributes and macroeconomic assumptions, including future home prices, again, embedded into our pricing levels given our assessment of any particular market.

但也許從更廣泛的角度來看，在供應量成長或呈上升趨勢的地區，我們會調整定價，以反映不僅是當前房價的影響，而且是未來房價對我們定價方程式的影響。我們基於風險的定價方法採用了我們認為適合信用屬性和宏觀經濟假設（包括未來房價）的適當風險的適當價格，同樣，根據我們對任何特定市場的評估，將其嵌入到我們的定價水平中。

And Doug, I would just add to Dean's comment, I agree with everything that Dean said that as you think about consumers and the way they value shelter or homeownership, that continues to be very high. So we don't see a high correlation on a slight home price decline in a certain geography suddenly leading to consumers actually defaulting on their home.

道格，我只想補充一下迪恩的評論，我同意迪恩所說的一切，當你考慮消費者以及他們對住房或房屋所有權的評價方式時，你會發現這個數字仍然很高。因此，我們並不認為某地區房價小幅下跌與消費者突然拖欠房貸之間有很大關聯。

While there could be some performance differential between a market that has significant home price appreciation versus the market that's slightly declining, we still continue to see in our borrowers that borrowers are prioritizing mortgage payments over every other payment. So we still think that given the labor market is strong, given that consumer balance sheets for our borrowers continue to be resilient that, that is going to be indicated in our performance.

儘管房價大幅上漲的市場與房價略有下降的市場之間可能存在一些表現差異，但我們仍然看到借款人優先償還抵押貸款，而不是其他所有款項。因此，我們仍然認為，鑑於勞動力市場強勁，鑑於我們的借款人的消費資產負債表繼續保持彈性，這將在我們的業績中得到體現。

Great. I appreciate that. Thank you.

偉大的。我很感激。謝謝。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的里克·沙恩。

Look, Doug, I think, covered probably the most important and salient issue for the space at the moment. But I would like to talk about the addressable market. We're now halfway through 2025. And at least versus our expectations, new insurance written for the industry is coming in a little bit lower. We won't know until everybody reports if it's market share shift or it's TAM just being a little bit smaller.

聽著，我認為道格可能已經涵蓋了目前該領域最重要、最突出的問題。但我想談談目標市場。2025 年已經過去一半了。至少與我們的預期相比，該行業新簽保險的數量略低。直到每個人都報告市場份額是否發生變化，或者 TAM 是否只是稍微變小了，我們才會知道。

When you look at your numbers, what do you think is going on there? Is market share shifting? Or is there a little bit less demand and that's what we're seeing in terms of NIW.

當您查看這些數字時，您認為發生了什麼？市場佔有率正在改變嗎？或者說需求稍微少了一點，這就是我們在 NIW 方面看到的情況。

Thank you for your question. So at the beginning of the year in February, when I provided our view on MI market size for 2025, I gave guidance that we expect MI market size to be generally similar to 2024. MI market size in 2024, just for context, was around $300 billion. Our view even right now is that, that statement is true, although we might have gotten there in a slightly different way than we expected. I think mortgage rates continuing to remain high, have probably suppressed purchase origination market compared to our original estimates.

感謝您的提問。因此，在今年 2 月初，當我提出對 2025 年 MI 市場規模的看法時，我給出的指導是，我們預計 MI 市場規模將與 2024 年大致相似。僅從背景來看，2024 年的 MI 市場規模約為 3,000 億美元。我們現在的觀點是，這種說法是正確的，儘管我們可能以與預期略有不同的方式實現這一目標。我認為，與我們最初的估計相比，抵押貸款利率持續保持在高位，可能已經抑制了購買發起市場。

So that could be some headwinds in one direction. But then on the flip side, we have seen consumers continue to use private mortgage insurance in a meaningful way. So we still see that 2025 will be similar to 2024. And I would say the two things that we are keeping an eye on are definitely mortgage rates because that drives consumer affordability. So when mortgage rates are hovering close to 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage, consumers are trying to figure out if they can afford that home in a prudent and safe way.

因此，這可能會帶來一些不利因素。但另一方面，我們看到消費者繼續以有意義的方式使用私人抵押貸款保險。因此我們仍然認為 2025 年將與 2024 年相似。我想說，我們關注的兩個因素肯定是抵押貸款利率，因為它決定了消費者的負擔能力。因此，當 30 年期固定抵押貸款利率徘徊在 7% 左右時，消費者正在試圖確定他們是否能夠以謹慎安全的方式買得起房子。

The second thing that we continue to hear from our lending partners is the uncertainty in the environment related to tariffs and any cascading impact on corporations or consumers. We saw a similar behavior back in middle of 2022. It actually reflected both in originations volume and even home prices flattening for a short period of time. And when that uncertainty abated, then consumers came back to the market. So I would say short answer, relatively similar levels through 2024. And then the things that we are keeping an eye on are consumers basically coming back to the market as the uncertainty around tariffs abate.

我們從貸款合作夥伴那裡不斷聽到的第二件事是與關稅相關的環境的不確定性以及對企業或消費者的任何連鎖影響。我們在 2022 年中期也看到類似的行為。它實際上反映在發起量上，甚至反映在短時間內房價的趨於平穩上。當這種不確定性消退時，消費者就會重返市場。所以我想簡單回答一下，到 2024 年的水準會相對相似。我們正在關注的是，隨著關稅不確定性的消退，消費者是否會重返市場。

Got it. And when you think about your capital planning, and obviously, the offset to that is that when NIW is a little bit softer, it tends to be correlated with higher persistency. Does that sort of what you've seen so far and potentially how it impacts your outlook impact your capital return plans? Does that contribute to the increase? Or is it really just driven by the higher ROEs?

知道了。當您考慮您的資本規劃時，顯然，與之相對的是，當 NIW 稍微寬鬆一些時，它往往與更高的持久性相關。您目前所看到的這些情況以及它對您的前景的潛在影響是否會影響您的資本回報計劃？這是否有助於增加？或者這真的只是由更高的 ROE 推動的？

Yes. Thank you, Rick. So our capital-return guidance is indicative of our actual performance, but we do take into account the macro environment, both today and prospectively. And as we always do, we will continue to evaluate the amount based on business performance, prospective market conditions, and also on an opportunistic basis, our share price. So as you saw in our results, we continue to see strong credit performance, as Dean articulated, strong performance in our bottom line results, and that led us to increasing our full year return of capital guidance to approximately $400 million.

是的。謝謝你，里克。因此，我們的資本回報指引反映了我們的實際業績，但我們確實考慮了當前和未來的宏觀環境。就像我們一貫的做法一樣，我們將繼續根據業務表現、未來市場狀況以及機會性股價來評估金額。因此，正如您在我們的結果中所看到的，我們繼續看到強勁的信貸表現，正如 Dean 所闡明的，我們的底線結果表現強勁，這促使我們將全年資本回報指導提高至約 4 億美元。

The final amount and the form of capital return to shareholders will depend on how business performs from here on out. But I would say, as a reminder, since our IPO, we have returned over $1.3 billion to shareholders and we continue to think in a very balanced way on our capital priorities, first allocating capital to our Insurance In-Force and thinking about allocating capital to investing in the business and looking at adjacencies and, lastly, making sure that we are always focused on returning capital to shareholders.

最終向股東返還的金額和形式將取決於未來的業務表現。但我想提醒一下，自首次公開募股以來，我們已向股東返還了超過 13 億美元，我們繼續以非常平衡的方式考慮我們的資本優先事項，首先將資本分配給我們的現有保險，並考慮將資本分配給業務投資併研究鄰接關係，最後，確保我們始終專注於向股東返還資本。

Great. Thank you so much for taking my questions this morning.

偉大的。非常感謝您今天上午回答我的問題。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

I wanted to just start with the delinquency outlook. I appreciate what you said about the credit fundamentals for housing credit still appear to be quite supportive. But maybe a two-part question there. The first is, are you seeing -- the headlines obviously talk a little bit more about home prices not being so great and you talked a little bit about supply.

我想先從犯罪前景開始談起。我很欣賞您所說的關於住房信貸的信貸基本面似乎仍然相當有利。但也許這是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。首先，您是否看到——頭條新聞顯然更多地談論了房價不太好，而您也談到了供應問題。

But I guess, compared to six months ago or a year ago, are you seeing the -- are you seeing any kind of change in the -- has your view on housing credit changed? Are you -- is the headlines that we are seeing actually showing up in your data in any way in terms of stress for homeowners? So as we think about the outlook for delinquencies, is that something we should keep in mind? Because it looks like things have just been moving with typical seasonality.

但我想，與六個月前或一年前相比，您是否看到了——您是否看到了任何變化——您對住房信貸的看法發生了變化嗎？我們看到的頭條新聞是否實際上以某種方式體現了房主的壓力？那麼，當我們考慮拖欠債務的前景時，我們是否應該牢記這一點？因為看起來事物只是按照典型的季節性規律變化。

And on that point, just given the different vintage sizes, typically, you see an increase of about 20 basis points in delinquencies, I think, in new notices in the third quarter. Is that -- should we expect something similar here? Or is there something going on with the large vintage sizes entering peak loss years that we should keep in mind?

從這一點來看，考慮到不同的年份規模，我認為，通常情況下，第三季新通知中的拖欠率會增加約 20 個基點。那是——我們應該期待類似的事情發生嗎？或者，在大批量葡萄酒進入虧損高峰期時，是否發生了一些值得我們注意的事情？

Mihir, thank you for your question. Some of your -- the last part of your question might be too precise for me, so I'll hand it off to Dean. But let me start on kind of how we think about the two main points you talked about. First thing I would start off with just is consumers. And I would say, as I said in my prepared remarks, we still see the labor market being strong and balance sheets for our borrowers continue to be resilient in this environment. While there is uncertainty in the economy about impacts of tariffs on corporations and consumers, we have not seen any meaningful impact of that on our borrowers yet.

Mihir，謝謝你的提問。您的問題的最後一部分可能對我來說太精確了，所以我會把它交給 Dean。但讓我先談談我們如何看待您談到的兩個要點。我首先要談的是消費者。我想說，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們仍然看到勞動力市場強勁，並且我們的借款人的資產負債表在這種環境下繼續保持彈性。儘管經濟中存在關於關稅對企業和消費者影響的不確定性，但我們尚未看到其對我們的借款人產生任何有意義的影響。

And Mihir, just in terms of how we think about resiliency of our borrower and our portfolio, we actually run reports on a quarterly basis, taking a sample of our Insurance In-Force to see what we think of consumer credit grid. And at the end of second quarter, we continue to see that metric actually perform well. So that tells us that right now, our borrower on our Insurance In-Force is in good shape. So that's why when you listen to our comments on consumers being strong, that's what's driving it in addition to the data we shared on our new delinquencies and our new delinquency trends being in line with past seasonal trends.

Mihir，就我們如何看待借款人和投資組合的彈性而言，我們實際上每季都會發布報告，對我們的現有保險進行抽樣，以了解我們對消費者信貸網格的看法。在第二季末，我們繼續看到該指標實際上表現良好。這告訴我們，目前，我們有效保險的借款人狀況良好。因此，當您聽到我們關於消費者強勁的評論時，這就是推動它的原因，此外，我們分享了有關新拖欠的數據，並且我們的新拖欠趨勢與過去的季節性趨勢一致。

I would say I'm very focused on talking about our borrowers because we do acknowledge that in non-prime space, we have seen stress in different asset classes all the way from credit cards to autos and even mortgages. But in the prime space, in the conventional space and our borrowers, we continue to see good performance.

我想說我非常專注於談論我們的借款人，因為我們確實承認，在非優質領域，我們已經看到從信用卡到汽車甚至抵押貸款的不同資產類別都面臨壓力。但在主要領域、常規領域和我們的借款人中，我們繼續看到良好的表現。

The second thing you talked about was regional home price decline. So to Dean's previous comments, I would say we have seen some regional home price depreciation in April and May. So if you think about a rolling kind of home price trend on a three-month basis, you see flat home prices. But again, if you think about this slowdown from an HPA perspective, it's very comparable to what we saw in summer of 2022, which was also a time where we saw economic uncertainty being heightened and consumers being actually more mindful of making big purchases.

您談到的第二件事是區域房價下跌。因此，對於 Dean 之前的評論，我想說我們在 4 月和 5 月看到了一些區域房價下跌。因此，如果您考慮三個月的房價滾動趨勢，您會看到房價持平。但是，如果從房屋價格評估 (HPA) 的角度來考慮這種放緩，它與我們在 2022 年夏天看到的情況非常相似，當時我們也看到經濟不確定性加劇，消費者在進行大額購買時實際上更加謹慎。

We still believe that demographic trend from a housing perspective is robust and there are definitely certain unique factors today, trade policy uncertainty and any implications of that on labor market, but we continue to be optimistic about household balance sheets and demographic trends that are supportive of our sector.

我們仍然相信，從住房角度來看，人口趨勢是強勁的，而且今天肯定存在某些獨特因素，貿易政策的不確定性及其對勞動力市場的影響，但我們仍然對支持我們行業的家庭資產負債表和人口趨勢持樂觀態度。

Now let me turn it over to Dean on the seasonal trends on performance.

現在，讓我將話題交給 Dean，討論一下效能的季節性趨勢。

Yes. So Mihir, thanks for the question. And I -- some of this is going to echo points that Rohit made but let me see if I can add some color. First of all, just in terms of new delinquency development, our new delinq rates are very consistent with pre-pandemic levels. I think that's driven by that strong labor market, wage growth and the like that Rohit made reference to.

是的。Mihir，謝謝你的提問。我 — — 其中一些觀點與羅希特提出的觀點相呼應，但讓我看看是否可以添加一些內容。首先，就新違約發展而言，我們的新違約率與疫情前的水準非常一致。我認為這是由羅希特提到的強勁勞動市場、薪資成長等因素所推動的。

And then from a cure performance, we continue to see elevated cures relative to expectations. I think that's driven largely by the meaningful amount of embedded HPA across our insured portfolio. Just in terms of what we're seeing maybe more recently in terms of new delinquency accident quarters and speaking about this particular quarter itself, we continue to see meaningful embedded home price appreciation on new delinquencies that are developing this quarter.

然後從治療表現來看，我們繼續看到相對於預期的治療效果有所提升。我認為這主要是由於我們的保險組合中嵌入了大量的 HPA。就我們最近看到的新的違約事故季度以及本季本身而言，我們繼續看到本季新出現的違約事件導致房價大幅上漲。

Our performance experience shows that HPA is a significant mitigant to loss. It increases the probability to cure. It reduces the probability of rolling the claim. And in HPA, again, based on our experience, the impact of that is really linear. So every point of embedded HPA helps to reduce the probability of ultimately rolling the claim.

我們的業績經驗表明，HPA 是減少損失的有效手段。它增加了治癒的可能性。它降低了索賠的機率。而在 HPA 中，根據我們的經驗，其影響確實是線性的。因此，嵌入式 HPA 的每一點都有助於降低最終推翻索賠的可能性。

Obviously, more is better, higher is better. We do put some stats in our earnings presentation about how much of our portfolio and how much of our delinquencies have at least 10% embedded equity in their respective portfolios. And I think that's just a nice amount of cushion to protect against some of the softness that's developing in local markets that Rohit made reference to earlier.

顯然，越多越好，越高越好。我們確實在收益報告中提供了一些統計數據，說明我們的投資組合中有多少以及我們的拖欠款項中有多少在其各自的投資組合中嵌入了至少 10% 的股權。我認為這是一個很好的緩衝，可以防止羅希特之前提到的當地市場出現一些疲軟現象。

Got it. both your comments were quite helpful there. Maybe just -- I'll get in queue after this again, but maybe just any update on the Washington front. Obviously, we hear a lot of, I guess, a lot of news, a lot of tweets, but anything on the ground changing from a regulatory standpoint that's impacting your business in a meaningful way?

明白了。你們兩個的評論都很有幫助。也許只是——之後我會再次排隊，但也許只是華盛頓前線的任何更新。顯然，我想我們聽到了很多新聞、很多推文，但從監管角度來看，有哪些實際變化會對您的業務產生重大影響？

Yes, Mihir. So we are very engaged on the Washington front. As I've said in previous calls, we have very strong relationships with the GSEs, FHFA and then across the housing ecosystem and with key legislators. So we continue to engage in the dialogue on all the topics being discussed.

是的，米希爾。因此，我們在華盛頓方面非常積極。正如我在先前的電話會議中所說，我們與政府支持企業、聯邦住房金融局以及整個住房生態系統和主要立法者都保持著非常密切的關係。因此，我們繼續就所有正在討論的話題進行對話。

So whether it's guideline changes or any changes to the programs that exist with the GSEs as those announcements happen or as those initiatives start, we are actively engaged in making sure that we are continuing to create a housing finance system where we are supporting well-qualified consumers achieve the dream of homeownership. So as we think about specific initiatives, we can talk about any of these offline. But we are definitely in the actual working groups either directly or through trade associations. So that continues to be a productive dialogue.

因此，無論是指導方針的變化，還是政府支持企業現有計劃的任何變化（隨著這些公告的發布或這些舉措的啟動），我們都在積極參與，確保我們繼續創建一個住房金融體系，支持符合條件的消費者實現擁有住房的夢想。因此，當我們考慮具體舉措時，我們可以在線下討論其中的任何一項。但我們肯定直接或透過產業協會加入了實際的工作小組。因此，這將繼續是一次富有成效的對話。

All right. Thank you. Thanks for taking my questions.

好的。謝謝。感謝您回答我的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Bose George, KBW.

博斯喬治，KBW。

Actually, Dean, just a quick follow-up on the comments you made about the embedded HPA this quarter. Just when you look at the trend on that the HPA on new notices, has there a change in that over the last, say, year or so?

實際上，Dean，我只是想快速跟進您對本季嵌入式 HPA 所發表的評論。當您查看新通知中房屋價格協議 (HPA) 的趨勢時，在過去一年左右的時間裡，這種趨勢有變化嗎？

Yes. I think it's -- Bose, thanks for the question. I mean it's definitely -- HPA overall has slowed. And in some markets, as we've been talking about, it's declined. So you have seen some slowing, let's say, over the last 12 to maybe even 18 months.

是的。我認為是－Bose，謝謝你的提問。我的意思是，HPA 整體肯定已經放緩。正如我們所討論的，在某些市場，這一數字已經下降。因此，在過去 12 個月甚至 18 個月內，您已經看到了一些放緩的跡象。

At the same time, when you look at it in the aggregate over the course -- or over the total of the new delinquencies that were reported in the current quarter, it's still substantial. And still, we believe, serves as a meaningful mitigant to the probability of ultimately going to claim.

同時，如果從總體上看，或者從本季度報告的新拖欠款項總數來看，這個數字仍然相當可觀。但我們仍然相信，這可以有效地降低最終提出索賠的可能性。

Okay. Great. And then actually, in terms of the default to claim, can you talk about the sort of the actual default to claim levels that you're seeing relative to that 9% that you're going to book it on new notices?

好的。偉大的。那麼實際上，就索賠違約而言，您能否談談相對於您將在新通知中記錄的 9% 的實際索賠違約水平？

Yes. So you correctly referenced, we do have a 9% claim rate on new delinquencies. I think we've stated this in the past, Bose, that, that 9% claim rate really isn't aligned with current performance trends. It's more a nod to the fact that we're operating in an environment of heightened economic uncertainty and that uncertainty could ultimately impact the performance trajectory of delinquencies rolling the claim on a go-forward basis.

是的。所以您說得對，我們對新拖欠貸款的索賠率確實有 9%。我認為我們過去曾說過，Bose，9% 的索賠率確實與當前的表現趨勢不符。這更表明我們正處於一個經濟不確定性高度增強的環境中，而這種不確定性最終可能會影響拖欠債款的業績軌跡，從而影響未來的債權執行。

That uncertainty has ebbed and flowed through time. But I still think today, we're operating with a high degree of uncertainty in the current environment.

這種不確定性隨著時間的推移而消退。但我仍然認為，今天我們在當前環境下的營運存在高度不確定性。

I think from a performance perspective, obviously, we've seen performance meaningfully better than that 9% claim rate. It's really been the underpinning of the reserve releases that we did in the current quarter, obviously, $48 million in the second quarter. But also if you look back over the course of the last three years, there's about roughly $250 million of annual reserve release over those three years. So we continue to see performance better than 9%, but we still believe the 9% is prudent in line with our prudent and measured approach to reserving, and appropriate for the here and now.

我認為從績效角度來看，顯然，我們看到的績效明顯優於 9% 的索賠率。這確實是我們在本季釋放儲備金的基礎，顯然，第二季釋放了 4,800 萬美元。但如果回顧過去三年，就會發現這三年每年大約釋放了 2.5 億美元的儲備金。因此，我們繼續看到業績好於 9%，但我們仍然認為 9% 是謹慎的，符合我們審慎和有分寸的儲備方法，並且適合當前情況。

What would change that go forward, Bose, is us looking at the future macroeconomic environment and saying that uncertainty has abated. That would cause us to come back and take a look at the appropriateness of that 9% and potentially make a change.

博斯，未來會發生哪些變化？讓我們來看看未來的宏觀經濟環境，並說不確定性已經減弱。這會促使我們回過頭來審視這 9% 是否合適，並可能做出改變。

Okay, great. Thanks a lot.

好的，太好了。多謝。

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back to Rohit Gupta for closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。現在我想請羅希特古普塔 (Rohit Gupta) 作結束語。

Thank you, [Kathy], and thank you, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Enact, and I look forward to seeing many of you at the virtual JPM Future of Financials Forum on August 13. Thank you.

謝謝你，[凱西]，也謝謝大家。感謝您對 Enact 的關注，我期待在 8 月 13 日的虛擬 JPM 未來金融論壇上見到大家。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program, and you may now disconnect.

感謝大家參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序，您現在可以斷開連接了。