Enact Holdings Inc (ACT) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, and welcome to Enact's fourth-quarter earnings call. (Operator Instructions)

您好，歡迎參加 Enact 第四季財報電話會議。（操作員說明）

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker, Daniel Kohl, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

現在我想將會議交給第一位發言人、投資者關係副總裁丹尼爾·科爾 (Daniel Kohl)。你可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning. Welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings call.

謝謝你，早安。歡迎參加我們的第四季財報電話會議。

Joining me today are Rohit Gupta, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dean Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. Rohit will provide an overview of our business performance and progress against our strategy. Dean will then discuss the details of our quarterly results before turning the call back to Rohit for closing remarks. We will then take your questions.

今天與我一起出席的還有總裁兼執行長 Rohit Gupta；財務長兼財務主管 Dean Mitchell。羅希特將概述我們的業務績效以及我們的策略進展。然後迪恩將討論我們季度業績的細節，然後將電話轉回給羅希特進行總結發言。然後我們將回答您的問題。

The earnings materials we issued after market close yesterday contain our financial results for the quarter, along with a comprehensive set of financial and operational metrics. These are available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.ir.enactmi.com.

我們昨天收盤後發布的收益資料包含我們本季的財務業績，以及一套全面的財務和營運指標。這些資訊可在公司網站 www.ir.enactmi.com 的投資者關係部分取得。

Today's call is being recorded and will include the use of forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current assumptions, estimates, expectations, and projections as of today's date. Additionally, they are subject to risks and uncertainties, which may cause actual results to be materially different, and we undertake no obligation to update or revise such statements as a result of new information. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please review the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements in today's press release, as well as in our filings with the SEC, which will be available on our website.

今天的電話會議正在錄音，並將包括前瞻性陳述的使用。這些陳述是基於截至今天的當前假設、估計、預期和預測。此外，它們還存在風險和不確定性，可能導致實際結果存在重大差異，我們不承擔因新資訊而更新或修改此類聲明的義務。有關這些風險和不確定性的討論，請查看今天的新聞稿以及我們向 SEC 提交的文件中有關前瞻性陳述的警告性語言，這些文件將在我們的網站上提供。

Please keep in mind the earnings materials in management's prepared remarks today include certain non-GAAP measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most relevant GAAP metrics can be found in the press release, our earnings presentation, and our upcoming SEC filing on our website.

請記住，管理層今天準備的演講中的盈利材料包括某些非公認會計原則措施。這些指標與最相關的 GAAP 指標的調整可以在我們網站上的新聞稿、我們的收益報告以及即將向 SEC 提交的文件中找到。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Rohit.

這樣，我會將電話轉給羅希特。

Thanks, Daniel. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝，丹尼爾。大家，早安。

We delivered very strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 results, including high-quality growth in our insured portfolio, strong credit performance, increasing investment income, expense efficiency, and solid profitability and returns, while also returning substantial capital to our shareholders. Driving this performance was the continued execution of our cycle-tested growth and risk management strategy, made possible by the hard work and talent of our employees. I'd like to thank them for their continued focus and commitment and for helping Enact deliver another successful year.

我們交付了非常強勁的第四季度和2023 年全年業績，包括我們的保險投資組合的高品質成長、強勁的信用表現、投資收入的增加、費用效率以及穩健的盈利能力和回報，同時還向股東返還了大量資本。推動這項績效的因素是我們持續執行經過週期考驗的成長和風險管理策略，這得益於我們員工的辛勤工作和才能。我要感謝他們的持續關注和承諾，並幫助 Enact 再次取得成功。

Net income for the full year was $666 million, or $4.11 per diluted share, and return on equity was 15%. We ended 2023 with record insurance in force of $263 billion, driven by new insurance written of $53 billion for the full year and persistency that reached 86% in the fourth quarter.

全年淨利為 6.66 億美元，或攤薄後每股收益 4.11 美元，股本回報率為 15%。2023 年末，受全年新承保 530 億美元保險以及第四季度持續性達到 86% 的推動，我們的有效保險金額達到創紀錄的 2,630 億美元。

In addition to our strong financial performance, we achieved several strategic milestones during 2023 that will help position us to perform over the long term and across market cycles. First, we delivered important enhancements to our customer and technology platforms. These enhancements have improved the customer experience and are demonstrative of our commitment to deliver a high-caliber, seamless, and efficient experience to our lender partners and have helped us add over 150 new customers in 2023 in a market that saw the number of lenders contract.

除了強勁的財務表現外，我們還在 2023 年實現了多個策略里程碑，這將有助於我們在長期和跨市場週期的表現中保持領先地位。首先，我們對客戶和技術平台進行了重要的增強。這些增強功能改善了客戶體驗，體現了我們為貸方合作夥伴提供高品質、無縫和高效體驗的承諾，並幫助我們在 2023 年在貸方合約數量眾多的市場中增加了 150 多個新客戶。

We also made significant progress in extending our platform into compelling adjacencies. During the second quarter, we launched Enact Re to pursue opportunities in the mortgage reinsurance market. Enact Re continues to write high-quality and attractive GSE risk share business, and we have participated in all seven of the GSE deals that have come to market since its launch. And today, I'm pleased to announce that Enact Re has entered into our first international reinsurance deal with a leading mortgage insurance provider in the Australian market. We are excited to be participating in a familiar, mature, and scaled mortgage insurance market, where we can leverage our previous experience.

我們還在將我們的平台擴展到引人注目的鄰域方面取得了重大進展。第二季度，我們推出了 Enact Re，以尋求抵押貸款再保險市場的機會。Enact Re 繼續開發高品質且有吸引力的 GSE 風險分擔業務，我們參與了自推出以來上市的全部七項 GSE 交易。今天，我很高興地宣布 Enact Re 已與澳洲市場領先的抵押貸款保險提供者達成了我們的第一份國際再保險協議。我們很高興能夠參與一個熟悉的、成熟的、規模化的抵押貸款保險市場，在這裡我們可以利用我們之前的經驗。

When we launched Enact Re, I discussed our view of the opportunities for compelling returns, and we continue to be pleased with the strong underwriting and attractive risk-adjusted returns we have seen since its launch. Going forward, we continue to see Enact Re as a long-term capital and expense efficient growth opportunity.

當我們推出 Enact Re 時，我討論了我們對令人信服的回報機會的看法，我們仍然對自推出以來看到的強勁承保和有吸引力的風險調整回報感到滿意。展望未來，我們繼續將 Enact Re 視為長期資本和費用高效的成長機會。

Aligned with this view, during the quarter, EMACO contributed an additional $250 million to Enact Re, which will support our 12.5% quota share of our in-force business, up from previously announced quota share of 7.5%, as well as new insurance written and new business opportunities, primarily consisting of GSE credit risk transfer. Based on our current view, we believe that with this infusion, we have sufficiently funded Enact Re to support its growth for the foreseeable future, and we'll continue to keep the market apprised of progress through time.

與此觀點一致，EMACO 在本季向 Enact Re 額外捐款 2.5 億美元，這將支持我們有效業務中 12.5% 的配額份額（高於先前宣布的 7.5% 的配額份額），以及新承保的保險以及新的商機，主要包括GSE 信用風險轉移。根據我們目前的觀點，我們相信，透過此次注資，我們已經為 Enact Re 提供了足夠的資金來支持其在可預見的未來的成長，並且我們將繼續向市場通報進展。

Importantly, we executed on these opportunities while driving expenses below our target for the year and exceeding our target for capital returns to our shareholders. Both Dean and I will have more to say on these topics shortly.

重要的是，我們抓住了這些機會，同時將支出控制在年度目標之下，並超越了股東資本回報的目標。迪恩和我很快就會就這些主題發表更多言論。

I'm very pleased with our operating performance and the strategic progress we achieved in 2023. In 2024, we will continue to maximize value and efficiencies in our core MI business, while also pursuing disciplined growth. After a strong 2023, I'm confident that we are well positioned for continued success as we enter 2024.

我對我們 2023 年的經營業績和策略進展感到非常滿意。2024 年，我們將繼續實現核心 MI 業務的價值和效率最大化，同時追求有紀律的成長。在經歷了強勁的 2023 年之後，我相信我們已做好充分準備，在進入 2024 年時繼續取得成功。

I will now turn to the operating environment and our results. The economy remains resilient, supported by a strong labor market and healthy household balance sheet. While macro factors such as geopolitical conflicts, higher interest rates, and continued economic uncertainty pose potential risk, delinquency rates for prime mortgage borrowers are consistent with pre-pandemic levels, and our manufacturing quality continues to be strong.

我現在談談營運環境和我們的結果。在強勁的勞動力市場和健康的家庭資產負債表的支持下，經濟保持彈性。雖然地緣政治衝突、利率上升和持續的經濟不確定性等宏觀因素構成潛在風險，但優質抵押貸款借款人的拖欠率與疫情前的水平一致，而且我們的製造品質仍然強勁。

Even as originations have slowed amid higher borrowing costs, we are encouraged by the pent-up demand amongst first-time homebuyers, the long-term outlook for housing, and the attractive opportunity we see in the private mortgage insurance market. Home prices continue to be supported by low housing inventory and strong demand, and mortgage insurance will remain an important tool to help buyers qualify for a mortgage.

儘管借貸成本上升導致貸款發放放緩，但首次購房者被壓抑的需求、住房的長期前景以及我們在私人抵押貸款保險市場看到的誘人機會仍令我們感到鼓舞。低房屋庫存和強勁需求繼續支撐房價，抵押貸款保險仍將是幫助買家獲得抵押貸款資格的重要工具。

While higher interest rates have affected mortgage originations, elevated persistency has continued to support insurance in-force growth. As of December 31, only 4% of the mortgages in our portfolio had rates at least 50 basis points above the prevailing market rate. Also, as mortgage rates have come down, following a peak of more than 8% in the fourth quarter, recent data has pointed to an uptick in housing activity, which may provide a tailwind heading into the spring selling season. Our overall expectations, based on current information, is for 2024 MI market size to be similar to that in 2023.

雖然較高的利率影響了抵押貸款的發放，但持續性的提高繼續支持保險有效增長。截至 12 月 31 日，我們投資組合中只有 4% 的抵押貸款利率比現行市場利率高出至少 50 個基點。此外，隨著抵押貸款利率在第四季度達到超過 8% 的峰值後有所下降，最近的數據表明住房活動有所增加，這可能為進入春季銷售季節提供動力。根據目前訊息，我們的整體預期是 2024 年 MI 市場規模將與 2023 年相似。

The credit quality of our insured portfolio remains strong, with a weighted average FICO score of 744 and a weighted average loan-to-value ratio of 93% in the fourth quarter, and layered risk in our portfolio was 1.3%. Pricing, overall, was constructed during the quarter, and underwriting standards remain rigorous. We increased our price on NIW in certain cohorts and geographies in response to potential macroeconomic risks. Our dynamic pricing rate engine enables us to deliver our best price to customers while targeting appropriate risk-adjusted returns in real time, ensuring we onboard a prudent mix of business, while managing expected returns.

我們的核保投資組合的信用品質仍保持強勁，第四季的加權平均 FICO 評分為 744，加權平均貸款價值比為 93%，投資組合的分層風險為 1.3%。總體而言，定價是在本季制定的，承保標準仍然嚴格。為了應對潛在的宏觀經濟風險，我們提高了某些群體和地區的 NIW 價格。我們的動態定價引擎使我們能夠向客戶提供最優惠的價格，同時即時瞄準適當的風險調整回報，確保我們在管理預期回報的同時進行審慎的業務組合。

Our delinquency rate in the fourth quarter was 2.1%, up 13 basis points sequentially, relatively flat year over year and consistent with our expectations and pre-pandemic levels. Strong credit performance continued during the quarter, and our loss mitigation efforts helped drive strong cure activity. As a result, we released $53 million of reserves, and the loss ratio was 10%. We believe we remain well reserved for a range of scenarios.

我們第四季的拖欠率為 2.1%，環比上升 13 個基點，比去年同期相對持平，符合我們的預期和疫情前的水平。本季信貸表現持續強勁，我們的損失緩解措施幫助推動了強勁的治療活動。結果我們釋放了5,300萬美元的準備金，損失率為10%。我們相信，我們仍然為一系列情況做好了準備。

We continue to operate from a position of financial strength with strong balance sheet principles and liquidity. At year-end 2023, our PMIERs sufficiency was a strong 161%, or $1.9 billion of sufficiency, and approximately 90% of our risk in force was subject to credit risk transfers. Since last quarter, we have completed an ILN, a quota share, and an excess of loss reinsurance transaction, providing capital efficiency and loss volatility protection that Dean will detail later.

我們繼續以財務實力雄厚、資產負債表原則和流動性強勁的方式開展業務。截至 2023 年底，我們的 PMIER 充足率高達 161%，即 19 億美元，且我們約 90% 的有效風險受到信用風險轉移的影響。自上個季度以來，我們已經完成了ILN、配額份額和超額損失再保險交易，提供了資本效率和損失波動性保護，迪安稍後將詳細介紹。

As a proof point to our continued financial strength and liquidity, EMACO received multiple upgrades to its insurer financial strength rating by three different rating agencies in 2023. And as previously announced, S&P upgraded EMACO to A- in January. With that upgrade, EMACO is rated A- or equivalent across four different rating agencies, and our holding company is rated investment grade across four different rating agencies also. Additionally, the upgrades in 2023 drove Enact's senior debt rating to investment grade.

作為我們持續的財務實力和流動性的證明，EMACO 在 2023 年獲得了三個不同評級機構對其保險公司財務實力評級的多次升級。正如先前宣布的，標準普爾在 1 月將 EMACO 升級為 A-。透過此次升級，EMACO 被四家不同評級機構評為 A 級或同等評級，我們的控股公司也被四家不同評級機構評為投資級。此外，2023 年的升級將 Enact 的優先債務評級提升至投資等級。

The strength and flexibility of our capital position allowed us to deploy capital to support new business and grow our insurance in force, while also meeting our commitment to return capital to our shareholders. In 2023, we returned over $300 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases, including a 14% increase in the quarterly dividend beginning in the second quarter and a special dividend of $113 million during the fourth quarter. Additionally, we completed our first share buyback program of $75 million and authorized the second program of $100 million. Going forward, we remain committed to maximizing shareholder value through our balanced approach to capital allocation.

我們資本狀況的優勢和靈活性使我們能夠部署資本來支持新業務並擴大保險的效力，同時履行我們向股東返還資本的承諾。2023年，我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還超過3億美元，其中包括從第二季開始增加14%的季度股利以及第四季1.13億美元的特別股利。此外，我們還完成了 7,500 萬美元的第一個股票回購計劃，並授權了第二個 1 億美元的股票回購計劃。展望未來，我們仍然致力於透過平衡的資本配置方法來實現股東價值最大化。

As we enter 2024, we will continue to prudently invest in the growth opportunities we see for the business, while also maintaining strong liquidity levels and our commitment to return capital to our shareholders. On that front, for 2024, we expect total capital return will be similar to what we delivered in 2023. And given the compelling valuation we have seen in our stock through late 2023 and early 2024, we expect to increase our share repurchase activity.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續審慎投資於我們看到的業務成長機會，同時保持強勁的流動性水準和向股東返還資本的承諾。在這方面，我們預期 2024 年的總資本報酬率將與 2023 年的水準相似。鑑於我們在 2023 年底和 2024 年初看到的股票估值令人信服，我們預計將增加股票回購活動。

We had a strong quarter, and I'm very pleased with our performance in 2023. We look forward to continuing to serve our customers and their borrowers and delivering on our opportunity to drive value for our shareholders.

我們度過了一個強勁的季度，我對我們 2023 年的表現非常滿意。我們期待繼續為我們的客戶及其借款人提供服務，並利用我們的機會為股東創造價值。

With that, I will now turn the call over to Dean.

現在我將把電話轉給 Dean。

Thanks, Rohit. Good morning, everyone. We again delivered strong results for the fourth quarter of 2023. GAAP net income for the fourth quarter was $157 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, as compared to $0.88 per diluted share in the same period last year and $1.02 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2023. Return on equity was 14%. Adjusted operating income was $158 million, or $0.98 per diluted share, as compared to $0.90 per diluted share in the same period last year and $1.02 per diluted share in the third quarter of 2023. Adjusted operating return on equity was 14%.

謝謝，羅希特。大家，早安。我們在 2023 年第四季再次取得了強勁的業績。第四季 GAAP 淨利潤為 1.57 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.98 美元，去年同期稀釋後每股收益為 0.88 美元，2023 年第三季稀釋後每股收益為 1.02 美元。股本回報率為14%。調整後營業收入為 1.58 億美元，即稀釋後每股收益 0.98 美元，而去年同期稀釋後每股收益為 0.90 美元，2023 年第三季稀釋後每股收益為 1.02 美元。調整後的營運股本報酬率為 14%。

For the full year, GAAP net income was $666 million, or $4.11 per diluted share, compared to $704 million, or $4.31 per diluted share, in 2022. Adjusted operating income for 2023 totaled $676 million, or $4.18 per diluted share, compared to $708 million, or $4.34 per diluted share, in 2022.

全年 GAAP 淨利潤為 6.66 億美元，即稀釋後每股 4.11 美元，而 2022 年為 7.04 億美元，即稀釋後每股 4.31 美元。2023 年調整後營業收入總計 6.76 億美元，即稀釋後每股 4.18 美元，而 2022 年為 7.08 億美元，即稀釋後每股 4.34 美元。

Turning to revenue drivers. Primary insurance in-force increased in the fourth quarter to a new record of $263 billion, up $1 billion sequentially and up $15 billion or 6% year over year. New insurance written of $10 billion was down $4 billion or 27% sequentially and down $5 billion or 31% year over year. These declines were primarily driven by a lower estimated private mortgage insurance market in the fourth quarter.

轉向收入驅動因素。第四季有效主險增加至 2,630 億美元，創歷史新高，季增 10 億美元，年增 150 億美元，成長 6%。新承保金額為 100 億美元，季減 40 億美元，或 27%；年減 50 億美元，即 31%。這些下降主要是由於第四季度私人抵押貸款保險市場預期較低所致。

Persistency was 86% in the fourth quarter, up 2 percentage points sequentially and flat year over year. As Rohit mentioned, just 4% of the mortgages in our portfolio had rates at least 50 basis points above the prevailing market rate. While rates remain elevated, we anticipate elevated persistency, which will help offset lower production from the impact of higher mortgage rates.

第四季持久度為 86%，季減 2 個百分點，較去年同期持平。正如 Rohit 所提到的，我們投資組合中只有 4% 的抵押貸款利率比現行市場利率高出至少 50 個基點。雖然利率仍然很高，但我們預計持久性將會提高，這將有助於抵消抵押貸款利率上升影響造成的產量下降。

Net premiums earned were $240 million, or down $3 million or 1% sequentially and up $7 million or 3% year over year. The decrease in net premiums earned sequentially was primarily driven by the lapse of older, higher price policies and higher ceded premiums driven by the successful execution of our CRT program and partially offset by insurance in force growth. The year-over-year increase was driven by insurance in force growth, partially offset by higher ceded premiums in the lapse of older, higher priced policies.

淨保費收入為 2.4 億美元，季減 300 萬美元，或 1%；年增 700 萬美元，即 3%。淨保費的連續下降主要是由於舊的、價格較高的保單的失效以及我們的 CRT 計劃的成功執行所推動的較高的分出保費，並部分被有效保險的增長所抵消。同比增長是由保費增長推動的，但部分被舊的、價格較高的保單失效導致的分出保費增加所抵消。

Our base premium rate of 40.1 basis points was down 0.1 basis point sequentially and 0.9 basis point year to date. Remember that our base premium rate is impacted by a variety of factors and tends to modestly fluctuate from quarter to quarter.

我們的基本保費率為 40.1 個基點，較上一季下降 0.1 個基點，今年迄今下降 0.9 個基點。請記住，我們的基本保費率受到多種因素的影響，並且每個季度都會略有波動。

Premium yields for the full year 2023 were in line with our expectations, and we expect yields to continue to stabilize around current levels in 2024. Our net earned premium rate was 36.4 basis points, down 0.9 basis points sequentially, primarily reflecting higher ceded premiums in the current quarter.

2023 年全年保費收益率符合我們的預期，我們預計 2024 年收益率將繼續穩定在當前水準附近。我們的淨賺取保費率為 36.4 個基點，較上一季下降 0.9 個基點，主要反映了本季分出保費的增加。

Investment income in the fourth quarter was $56 million, up $1 million or 2% sequentially and up $11 million or 25% year over year. Higher interest rates have lifted yields in our investment portfolio, and we expect our book yield will continue to increase overall as our portfolio continues to turn over and higher yielding assets become an increasing proportion of the overall mix. Our new money yield was over 5%, and our portfolio book yield increased to 3.6% for the quarter.

第四季投資收益為 5,600 萬美元，季增 100 萬美元，成長 2%，年增 1,100 萬美元，成長 25%。較高的利率提高了我們投資組合的收益率，隨著我們的投資組合不斷週轉，高收益資產在整體組合中所佔的比例越來越大，我們預計我們的帳面收益率將繼續整體上升。本季我們的新資金收益率超過 5%，投資組合帳面收益率增至 3.6%。

Turning to credit. Losses in the quarter were $24 million, as compared to $18 million last quarter and $18 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our loss ratio for the quarter was 10%, compared to 7% last quarter and 8% in the fourth quarter of 2022. Our losses and loss ratio were driven by higher current quarter delinquencies, primarily driven by seasonal trends sequentially, in addition to the normal loss development of new books. This was partially offset by favorable cure performance, primarily from 2022, and earlier delinquencies that remained above our expectations, resulting in a $53 million reserve release in the quarter.

轉向信用。本季虧損 2,400 萬美元，而上一季虧損 1,800 萬美元，2022 年第四季虧損 1,800 萬美元。我們本季的虧損率為 10%，而上季為 7%，2022 年第四季為 8%。我們的損失和損失率是由本季拖欠率上升造成的，主要是由季節性趨勢推動的，此外還有新書的正常損失發展。這被主要來自 2022 年的良好治癒表現以及仍高於我們預期的早期拖欠情況所部分抵消，導致本季度釋放了 5300 萬美元的準備金。

New delinquencies increased sequentially to 11,700 from 11,100. Our new delinquency rate for the quarter was 1.2%, compared to 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, reflective of ongoing positive credit trends and primarily driven by historical seasonality in the normal loss development of new large books. We continue to book new delinquencies at an approximate 10% claim rate, reflecting our prudent approach to reserving in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.

新拖欠數量從 11,100 起連續增加至 11,700 起。我們本季的新拖欠率為 1.2%，而 2022 年第四季為 1.1%，反映了持續的積極信貸趨勢，並且主要受到新大帳簿正常損失發展的歷史季節性的推動。我們繼續以大約 10% 的索賠率登記新的拖欠款項，反映了我們在動態的宏觀經濟環境中採取的審慎準備金方法。

Total delinquencies in the fourth quarter increased sequentially to 20,400 from 19,200. The primary delinquency rate increased 13 basis points sequentially to 2.1%, consistent with our expectations and in line with pre-pandemic levels.

第四季拖欠總數從 19,200 起增加到 20,400 起。主要拖欠率較上季上升 13 個基點至 2.1%，與我們的預期一致，也與疫情前的水準一致。

We continued to deliver expense discipline throughout 2023. Operating expenses for the full year of 2023 were $223 million, compared to $239 million for the full year 2022, lower by 7%, driven by our commitment to operational excellence and cost reduction initiatives. Operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $59 million, up 7% sequentially, driven by the timing of premium tax expense recognition and incentive-based compensation and down 6% year over year.

我們在 2023 年繼續實行費用紀律。2023 年全年的營運支出為 2.23 億美元，而 2022 年全年的營運支出為 2.39 億美元，下降了 7%，這得益於我們致力於卓越營運和降低成本措施。第四季營運費用為 5,900 萬美元，季增 7%，受保費稅收費用確認和激勵性薪酬時機的推動，年減 6%。

The expense ratio for the quarter was 25%, up 2 percentage points sequentially and down 2 percentage points year over year. We remain focused on disciplined expense management. And towards that end, for 2024, we expect expenses to be in the range of $220 million to $225 million or approximately flat year over year.

本季費用率為25%，季增2個百分點，較去年同期下降2個百分點。我們仍然專注於嚴格的費用管理。為此，我們預計 2024 年的支出將在 2.2 億至 2.25 億美元之間，或與去年同期基本持平。

Moving to capital. We continue to operate with a strong capital base and liquidity position. Our PMIERs sufficiency was 161% or $1.9 billion above PMIERs requirements at the end of the fourth quarter. Additionally, 90% of our risk in force is subject to credit risk transfers, and our third party CRT program provides $1.7 billion of PMIERs capital credit.

遷往首都。我們繼續以強大的資本基礎和流動性狀況運作。截至第四季末，我們的 PMIER 充足率比 PMIER 要求高出 161%，即 19 億美元。此外，我們 90% 的有效風險受到信用風險轉移的影響，我們的第三方 CRT 計劃提供 17 億美元的 PMIER 資本信用。

During the quarter, we completed our sixth ILN issuance, which saw strong interest from investors and reinforced our ability to access the capital markets. And subsequent to quarter-end, we closed a new quota share and a new excess of loss reinsurance transaction, both with panels of highly rated reinsurers to provide forward protection for our 2024 business.

本季度，我們完成了第六次 ILN 發行，引起了投資者的濃厚興趣，並增強了我們進入資本市場的能力。季度末後，我們與高評級再保險公司小組完成了新的配額份額和新的超額損失再保險交易，為我們 2024 年的業務提供遠期保障。

Lastly, during the quarter, we added a strongly rated reinsurer partner to our 2023 quota share transaction, increasing our cede percentage from approximately 13% to approximately 16%. As this level of activity reflects, our credit risk transfer program remains a critical component of our enhanced business model, driving capital efficiency and volatility protection for unexpected losses.

最後，在本季度，我們在 2023 年配額份額交易中增加了一家評級較高的再保險公司合作夥伴，將我們的讓出百分比從約 13% 增加到約 16%。正如這一活動水平所反映的那樣，我們的信用風險轉移計劃仍然是我們增強的業務模式的重要組成部分，可提高資本效率和針對意外損失的波動性保護。

Turning to capital allocation. We remain committed to our capital prioritization framework, which balances maintaining a strong balance sheet, investing in our business, and returning capital to shareholders. We returned just over $300 million to shareholders in 2023 in the form of dividends and share repurchases. During the quarter, we paid out $26 million to our quarterly dividend and $113 million through our special cash dividend, and we bought back 656,000 shares for a total of $18 million through our share repurchase program. During January, we repurchased an additional 133,000 shares for a total of $4 million. As of January 31, 2024, there was approximately $82 million remaining on our current share repurchase authorization.

轉向資本配置。我們仍然致力於我們的資本優先框架，該框架在維持強勁的資產負債表、投資我們的業務和向股東返還資本之間取得平衡。2023 年，我們以股利和股票回購的形式向股東返還了 3 億多美元。本季度，我們支付了 2,600 萬美元的季度股息和 1.13 億美元的特別現金股息，並透過股票回購計畫回購了 656,000 股股票，總價值為 1,800 萬美元。1 月份，我們額外回購了 133,000 股股票，總金額為 400 萬美元。截至 2024 年 1 月 31 日，我們目前的股票回購授權尚剩餘約 8,200 萬美元。

As we head into 2024, we will continue to balance investing in growth opportunities across the business with our commitment to return capital to shareholders. We expect total 2024 capital return to be approximately $300 million, similar to what we delivered in 2023. As in the past, the final amount and form of capital return to shareholders will ultimately depend on business performance, market conditions, and regulatory approvals.

邁入 2024 年，我們將繼續平衡對整個業務成長機會的投資與向股東返還資本的承諾。我們預計 2024 年的資本回報總額約為 3 億美元，與 2023 年的情況類似。與過去一樣，股東資本回報的最終金額和形式最終將取決於經營績效、市場狀況和監管部門的批准。

Shifting to Enact Re, as Rohit mentioned, Enact Re has continued to produce solid results since its launch. During the fourth quarter, EMACO contributed an additional $250 million of capital to Enact Re and, subsequent to quarter-end, increased the affiliate quota share cede percentage from 7.5% to 12.5%. This capital contribution will support the increased quota share and, for the foreseeable future, will provide runway for Enact Re's new business opportunities, primarily consisting of GSE credit risk transfer.

轉向 Enact Re，正如 Rohit 所提到的，Enact Re 自推出以來不斷取得紮實的成果。第四季度，EMACO 向 Enact Re 額外注資 2.5 億美元，並在季度末後將附屬公司配額份額讓渡百分比從 7.5% 提高到 12.5%。此次出資將支持增加的配額份額，並在可預見的未來為 Enact Re 的新業務機會（主要包括 GSE 信用風險轉移）提供跑道。

We're very pleased with all we accomplished in 2023, and I would like to thank all of our employees for driving this outstanding performance. We believe we are well positioned heading into 2024 and remain focused on driving solid returns.

我們對 2023 年所取得的一切成就感到非常滿意，我要感謝所有員工推動這項出色的業績。我們相信，進入 2024 年，我們處於有利地位，並將繼續專注於推動穩健的回報。

Thank you. I will now turn the call back over to Rohit.

謝謝。我現在將把電話轉回給羅希特。

Thanks, Dean. As we look ahead, we are encouraged by the significant long-term opportunities for mortgage insurance and believe that our strength and flexibility position us to continue to execute and deliver value for all our stakeholders. Our commitment to responsibly help more people become homeowners motivates everything we do and has never been stronger.

謝謝，迪恩。展望未來，我們對抵押貸款保險領域的重大長期機會感到鼓舞，並相信我們的實力和靈活性使我們能夠繼續執行並為所有利益相關者創造價值。我們以負責任的方式幫助更多人成為房主的承諾激勵著我們所做的一切，而這項承諾從未如此強烈。

Operator, we are now ready for Q&A.

接線員，我們現在準備好進行問答了。

(Operator Instructions) Bose George, KBW.

（操作員說明）Bose George，KBW。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. This is actually Alex on for Bose. I just wanted to touch on the recent rating upgrades first. Can you discuss how these upgrades could potentially impact the business? And then maybe just to go into a little bit more detail, what is the benefit of the high ratings for both Enact and the MI industry as a whole?

嘿。大家，早安。這實際上是 Alex 為 Bose 所做的。我只想先談談最近的評級升級。您能否討論一下這些升級可能會對業務產生怎樣的影響？然後也許只是更詳細地討論一下，高評級對 Enact 和整個 MI 行業有什麼好處？

Good morning, Alex. This is Rohit. I'll get started, and I'll have Dean add color to that.

早安，亞歷克斯。這是羅希特。我會開始，然後我會讓 Dean 為它添加色彩。

So I think from a business perspective, we are very happy with the ratings upgrade -- rating upgrades we have received, both in 2023 and 2024. As a reminder, in 2023, we received ratings upgrades from all rating agencies in early part of the year. And in addition to that, we also got AM best rating at A- for our insurance company. And then in January, we received an upgrade from S&P that upgraded us to A- at the insurance company level and the investment grade level for our holding company.

因此，我認為從商業角度來看，我們對 2023 年和 2024 年的評級升級感到非常滿意。提醒一下，2023 年，我們在年初收到了所有評級機構的評級升級。除此之外，我們的保險公司還獲得了 AM 最佳評級 A-。然後在 1 月份，我們獲得了標準普爾的升級，將我們的保險公司等級和控股公司的投資等級升級為 A-。

So as I said in my prepared remarks, I think having A- ratings for our insurance companies positions us very strongly in front of all counterparties, whether that's GSEs, whether that's depository institutions, or for Enact Re, whether it's third parties that we do business with. And then from a holding company perspective, it also positions us well in terms of holding company being investment grade rated across all rating agencies.

正如我在準備好的演講中所說，我認為我們的保險公司獲得A- 評級使我們在所有交易對手面前處於非常有利的地位，無論是GSE，無論是存款機構，還是Enact Re，無論是我們做的第三方與 做生意。然後從控股公司的角度來看，這也使我們在所有評級機構對控股公司進行投資等級評級方面處於有利地位。

So I think both from playing participation in the market, that's an upside. And at the same time, hopefully, it helps our cost of capital over a period of time.

因此，我認為從參與市場來看，這都是有利的。同時，希望它能在一段時間內幫助我們降低資本成本。

Yeah. Alex, I'll just pick up on that last point that Rohit made. I think with, now, the holding company being fully investment grade, coupled with the fact that we have $750 million of notes outstanding to mature in August of 2025, I really think that sets the table for better access to the investment grade market and, ultimately, tighter spreads when we ultimately do refinance the 2025 notes. So we think it will have a meaningful economic impact as we go forward towards that refinance activity.

是的。亞歷克斯，我將繼續討論羅希特提出的最後一點。我認為，現在控股公司完全是投資等級，再加上我們有 7.5 億美元的未償票據將於 2025 年 8 月到期，我真的認為這為更好地進入投資級市場奠定了基礎，最終，當我們最終對2025 年票據進行再融資時，利差會收窄。因此，我們認為，當我們推進再融資活動時，它將產生有意義的經濟影響。

Great, that makes sense. And then just one more maybe on the higher ceded premiums in the quarter. Is the 4Q level something that will run rate moving forward?

太好了，很有道理。然後還有一個可能是本季更高的讓出保費。第四季的水平是否會推動利率向前發展？

Yeah. Alex, a good question. Appreciate that.

是的。亞歷克斯，一個好問題。感謝。

I think we were very active recently in the CRT market. So start with that, we talked about the execution of our first ILN transaction since 2021. We also added the highly rated reinsurer to our 2023 quota share transaction, which increased the cede commission from 13% to 16%. And then post year-end, we added both a forward XOL and a quota share transaction on our 2024 NIW.

我認為我們最近在 CRT 市場上非常活躍。首先，我們討論了自 2021 年以來第一筆 ILN 交易的執行情況。我們還將評級較高的再保險公司添加到了 2023 年配額份額交易中，從而將分出佣金從 13% 增加到 16%。年底後，我們在 2024 年 NIW 上新增了遠期 XOL 和配額份額交易。

So that activity isn't fully baked into our Q4 run rate. So I would say the $25 million probably is not the right run rate as we head into Q1. When we fully bake in a full quarter of the ILN, in addition to that start baking in the forward XOL and forward quota shares, I think you're going to see a run rate closer to $28 million, $29 million entering in Q1, just taking into account those transactions.

因此，該活動並未完全納入我們第四季的運行率。因此，我想說，隨著我們進入第一季度，2500 萬美元可能不是正確的運行速度。當我們完全烘焙 ILN 的整個季度時，除了開始烘焙遠期 XOL 和遠期配額份額外，我認為您將看到運行率接近 2800 萬美元，第一季進入 2900 萬美元，只是考慮到這些交易。

I think it's important to remember with those latter two transactions, those are forward transactions on our 2024 NIW. So those will continue to increase over the course of the year as we continue to produce more NIW and the coverage continues to expand. There is some, obviously, potential for lapse offset in that run rate. But lapse has been incredibly slow in our CRT program, given the high degree of persistency that we've experienced in the current quarter.

我認為重要的是要記住後兩項交易是我們 2024 年國家利益豁免 (NIW) 上的遠期交易。因此，隨著我們繼續生產更多的 NIW 並且覆蓋範圍不斷擴大，這一數字將在今年繼續增加。顯然，該運行率存在一定的潛在偏差。但考慮到我們在本季經歷的高度持續性，我們的 CRT 計劃的進展速度非常慢。

So I think, hopefully, the $28 million, $29 million gives you a run rate heading into Q1. And then just consider that those '24 coverages will continue to increase protection and increase ceded premiums over the course of the remainder of the year.

因此，我認為 2800 萬美元、2900 萬美元有望為您提供進入第一季的運行率。然後考慮一下，在今年剩餘時間內，這些 24 小時保險將繼續增加保護並增加分出保費。

So Alex, I just wanted two things to add to Dean's point. First thing, from an overall operating leverage perspective, we have messaged before that we want our operating leverage to be in mid-30s%, and we are building up to that. So this is part of the build.

亞歷克斯，我只想補充兩件事來補充迪恩的觀點。首先，從整體營運槓桿的角度來看，我們之前曾表示希望我們的營運槓桿達到 30% 左右，我們正在努力實現這一目標。所以這是構建的一部分。

And an important aspect of that is our participation in quota share transactions, where our peer group probably has a higher percentage of quota share transactions. So you actually see the high level of premium upfront. So you see an increase in ceded premium. But part of that premium comes back in your ceding commission and offsets your expense ratio. So that's new for us. This is our second-quarter share transactions, so it is important to point out that balance in P&L.

其中一個重要面向是我們參與配額份額交易，我們的同業群體可能擁有更高比例的配額份額交易。所以你實際上會預先看到高水準的溢價。所以你會看到讓出保費增加。但該溢價的一部分會回到您的佣金中，並抵銷您的費用率。這對我們來說是新的。這是我們第二季的股票交易，因此指出損益表中的平衡非常重要。

And then the last thing I would say just to wrap this up is, from a ceded premium perspective, having those forward quota share and excess of loss transactions done on 2024 new originations, new insurance written, gives us a capital return confidence and Dean talked about in our prepared remarks. So being able to give that capital return guidance early in the year is also based on that fourth-quarter activity in CRT space.

最後我要說的是，從讓出保費的角度來看，在 2024 年新發起、新承保的保險上完成這些遠期配額份額和超額損失交易，給了我們資本回報信心，迪恩談到關於我們準備好的發言。因此，能夠在今年年初給出資本回報指引也是基於 CRT 領域第四季的活動。

Got it. That makes sense. Thanks so much for taking the questions.

知道了。這就說得通了。非常感謝您提出問題。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

里克·肖恩，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking my questions this morning, guys. We're in a unique environment where, disproportionately, volumes are purchase-driven versus refi-driven. But we're also in an environment where purchase activity is quelled by lack of supply.

謝謝你們今天早上回答我的問題，夥計們。我們處於一個獨特的環境中，銷售量由購買驅動而非再融資驅動的比例不成比例。但我們也面臨著購買活動因供應不足而受到抑制的環境。

I'm curious, both tactically and strategically, how you approach that market. Is it -- are there short-term things that you do? And then, when you think about taking that risk on that may be slightly different between purchase and refi and owning that risk for five years, how do you think about the differences there as well?

我很好奇，無論從戰術或戰略上，你們如何進入這個市場。你有做一些短期的事情嗎？然後，當您考慮承擔購買和再融資之間可能略有不同的風險並承擔五年的風險時，您如何看待其中的差異？

Yeah. Good morning, Rick. So I will get started, and Dean can add color on this.

是的。早安，瑞克。那麼我就開始吧，Dean 可以對此添加色彩。

So definitely, we have been operating in a very dynamic and complex market. And I think, in recent months, we have even seen more factors in play between higher mortgage rates that actually went above 8% in second half of 2023, we have seasonality in play, and then also some weather events. But I think the combined effect of that has had an impact on purchase originations volume in Q4 and, as a result, on MI market size, too.

因此，毫無疑問，我們一直在一個非常活躍和複雜的市場中運作。我認為，近幾個月來，我們甚至看到了更多因素在抵押貸款利率上升之間發揮作用，抵押貸款利率實際上在2023 年下半年超過了8%，其中有季節性因素，還有一些天氣事件。但我認為，這種綜合效應對第四季的購買發起量產生了影響，也影響了 MI 市場規模。

I think from a volume perspective, those are the factors we take into account in terms of what MI market size is and the market we are playing in. From a risk perspective, as we have stated in the past, we have very granular and very deep models that are based on our own data that is with us for the last 40 years. And that gives us a lot of confidence that once we come up with our view of the market and the range of outcomes around that base case, then we can actually pivot our participation based on risk categories, based on risk attributes. And our risk based pricing engine allows us to deploy that strategy down to an MSA level from a geography perspective and then down to any risk attributes that we choose to.

我認為從數量的角度來看，這些是我們在 MI 市場規模和我們所處的市場方面考慮的因素。從風險的角度來看，正如我們過去所說，我們擁有非常精細和非常深入的模型，這些模型是基於我們自己過去 40 年的數據。這給了我們很大的信心，一旦我們提出了對市場的看法以及圍繞基本情況的結果範圍，那麼我們實際上可以根據風險類別和風險屬性來調整我們的參與。我們基於風險的定價引擎使我們能夠從地理角度將該策略部署到 MSA 級別，然後部署到我們選擇的任何風險屬性。

So I think that's how I would think about it more broadly. It's tough to talk about our commercial strategy in terms of risk attributes that are in play at different cycles. But hopefully, that gives you our mindset and the tools that we have at our disposal to deploy our pricing and risk management mindset, and that has delivered results that you see over the last few years for us.

所以我認為這就是我更廣泛地思考它的方式。很難從不同周期中發揮作用的風險屬性來談論我們的商業策略。但希望這為您提供了我們的思維方式以及我們可以使用的工具來部署我們的定價和風險管理思維方式，並在過去幾年中為我們帶來了您所看到的結果。

Yeah. Rick, the two aspects that Rohit didn't cover that I'll pick up on probably don't change as much to be honest with you. One is expense management. Obviously, we're always focused on making sure that our economic footprint is in relation to the market size and the market realities. But I think, quite frankly, whether a big market or a small market, we're focused across the business on prudent expense management. So I don't know that anything changes there, but it does highlight our focus. We maybe get more scrutiny on expense management in a smaller market.

是的。瑞克，老實說，羅希特沒有提到的兩個方面我會繼續討論，可能不會有太大變化。一是費用管理。顯然，我們始終致力於確保我們的經濟足跡與市場規模和市場現實相關。但坦白說，我認為，無論是大市場還是小市場，我們整個業務的重點都是審慎的費用管理。所以我不知道那裡有什麼變化，但它確實突出了我們的重點。我們可能會在較小的市場中對費用管理進行更多審查。

And then CRT, and again, not much change here. I think our business objectives with our CRT is driving efficient capital as a capital source. And traditionally, we think about that in the PMIREs context. And then loss volatility protection. So we still want to go out and secure CRT for those two purposes. Obviously, the quantum might change, given the amount of new business. But I think the objectives of the CRT and the use of CRT are programmatic and remain in place.

然後是 CRT，同樣，這裡沒有太大變化。我認為我們 CRT 的業務目標是推動高效率資本作為資本來源。傳統上，我們在 PMIRE 背景下思考這一點。然後損失波動性保護。因此，我們仍然希望出於這兩個目的出去確保 CRT 的安全。顯然，考慮到新業務的數量，數量可能會改變。但我認為 CRT 的目標和 CRT 的使用是有計劃的並且仍然存在。

Got it, okay. And if I may ask one follow up, the existing book is probably more barbelled than at any time in the history of the industry, where you have a couple of cohorts that are benefiting from huge HPA, incredibly low underlying rates, and so the quality there is going to be extremely high. Your more recent cohorts, less HPA, higher coupon, presumably more credit risk.

明白了，好吧。如果我可以問一個後續問題的話，現有的這本書可能比該行業歷史上的任何時候都更有說服力，其中有一些群體受益於巨大的HPA、令人難以置信的低基礎利率以及因此的品質將會非常高。您最近的隊列、較少的 HPA、較高的票面利率可能會增加信用風險。

When we look to a more dovish Fed, is the opportunity to modestly derisk the book -- yes, persistency will go down on those more recent cohorts, but presumably that will drive some HPA and borrower's opportunity to step down in rates. Is that how we should look at things? Is that the favorable opportunity ahead?

當我們期待聯準會更加鴿派時，這是一個適度降低帳面風險的機會——是的，最近一批人的持久性將會下降，但這可能會推動一些 HPA 和借款人降低利率。我們應該這樣看待事物嗎？難道這就是眼前的有利機會嗎？

Yeah. I would say, maybe, Rick, starting back with construction of the books and how we think about onboarding risk. So I think your point is right in terms of our book construction that when we originated '20 and '21, I'm not sure if we knew the HPA that was going to come in subsequent years. So our view on pricing and book composition was driven by our risk view and our environment view at that point. So we basically priced those books with significant pricing in mind.

是的。我想說，也許，里克，從書籍的構建以及我們如何看待入職風險開始。因此，我認為您的觀點在我們的書籍結構方面是正確的，即當我們發起“20”和“21”時，我不確定我們是否知道隨後幾年將出現的 HPA。因此，我們對定價和帳面構成的看法是由我們當時的風險觀點和環境觀點所驅動的。因此，我們對這些書的定價基本上是考慮到了重要的定價。

You might remember, May of 2020, we started increasing our price pretty significantly. We did three price increases in five weeks as COVID started. So there was some good pricing on that 2020 book, and it benefited HP and low interest rates, so good amount of equity built in.

您可能還記得，2020 年 5 月，我們開始大幅提高價格。隨著新冠疫情的爆發，我們在五週內進行了三次漲價。因此，2020 年的書有一些不錯的定價，這對惠普和低利率有利，因此內建了大量股本。

But I would also say that, as we approached 2022 and we were pretty vocal on this point in our call, in middle of 2022, we actually started stabilizing our price and we started increasing our price earlier than others in third quarter of '22. So while '22 and '23 books have lower embedded HPA than prior books, they still have overall good returns because that's how we constructed the books. And just thinking about current construct in the market, the HPA right now is still, in November, at 6.6%. So those books, depending on where you are in the country, are still building good embedded HPA, even in this slower HPA growth environment, but there is still positive growth.

但我還要說，隨著我們接近2022 年，我們在2022 年中期的電話會議中非常直言不諱地表達了這一點，我們實際上開始穩定我們的價格，並且我們在22 年第三季度比其他公司更早開始提高價格。因此，雖然 '22 和 '23 書籍的嵌入式 HPA 低於以前的書籍，但它們總體上仍然具有良好的回報，因為這就是我們構建書籍的方式。考慮到目前的市場結構，11 月的 HPA 仍為 6.6%。因此，即使在 HPA 成長較慢的環境中，這些書籍仍然在建立良好的嵌入式 HPA，具體取決於您所在的國家/地區，但仍存在正成長。

Now, coming to the last part of your question, in terms of interest rate decline, I agree with your point that late '22 and most of '23 book has higher rates, higher mortgage rates in it. And we have a schedule in our earnings presentation that shows interest rates by book year. So yes, if interest rates do drop, those books will have the higher propensity to refinance.

現在，談到你問題的最後一部分，就利率下降而言，我同意你的觀點，即 22 世紀末和 23 世紀的大部分書都有更高的利率、更高的抵押貸款利率。我們的收益報告中有一個時間表，按書年顯示利率。所以，是的，如果利率確實下降，這些書籍將有更高的再融資傾向。

I would say, from our perspective, persistency in good economic environments and good credit environment is actually something that we look for. Higher persistency is good for our business. So I wouldn't say we are looking to refinance that part of the book. But on a relative basis, yes, if there was a portion of the book that gets refinanced in that interest rate environment, it is that late '22 and most of '23.

我想說，從我們的角度來看，持續良好的經濟環境、良好的信用環境其實是我們所追求的。更高的持久性對我們的業務有利。所以我不會說我們正在尋求為這本書的這一部分提供再融資。但相對而言，是的，如果這本書的一部分在這種利率環境下得到了再融資，那就是 22 世紀末和 23 世紀的大部分時間。

Perfect. Thank you, guys, very much.

完美的。非常感謝你們，夥伴們。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I wanted to start on the claim rate for a second, if that's okay. Just wanted to make sure I'm understanding. The 10% claim rate that you mentioned, that's the initial growth default to, I guess, claim assumption. That's right? I'm not misunderstanding that.

早安.感謝您回答我的問題。如果可以的話，我想先談談索賠率。只是想確保我理解。你提到的 10% 的索賠率，我猜，這是索賠假設的初始成長預設值。這是正確的？我沒有誤解。

Yeah, you can think about it as a frequency. You can think about it as a roll rate to claim, the probability of going to claim for any delinquency.

是的，你可以將其視為頻率。您可以將其視為索賠滾動率，即針對任何拖欠行為提出索賠的機率。

Got it. So I guess on that 10%, I mean, you've talked about the strength of the book. I think Rohit was just talking about growing pricing, but also like the tight underwriting, your actual credit performance has been quite strong. I mean, you've been having some pretty decent-sized reserve releases.

知道了。所以我想在這 10% 中，我的意思是，你已經談到了這本書的優勢。我認為羅希特只是在談論不斷增長的定價，但也像承保緊張一樣，你們的實際信用表現相當強勁。我的意思是，你們已經發布了一些規模相當大的儲備版本。

And I'm just trying -- can you put that 10% in a little bit of historical context for us? Is that -- I mean, I know it's a little above like what you had a couple of years ago. But is the 10% -- I mean, I guess, where's the 10% coming from? Is there something in the macro that you're seeing that's making you hesitant? Because it's higher than peers, so just trying to understand what is driving that.

我只是在嘗試——您能為我們介紹一下這 10% 的歷史背景嗎？我的意思是，我知道這比幾年前的情況高一點。但這 10%——我猜，這 10% 是從哪裡來的？您在宏觀中看到的某些東西是否讓您猶豫不決？因為它比同行要高，所以只是想了解是什麼推動了它。

Yeah. Mihir, when we put the 10% claim rate in place, we talked about the fact that we hadn't seen any performance deterioration that was driving that assumption. It was more borne out of the presence of economic uncertainty. And we thought that was heightened heading into 2022, and we started increasing the probability of those delinquencies ultimately going to claim.

是的。Mihir，當我們設定 10% 的索賠率時，我們談到了這樣一個事實：我們沒有看到任何導致這一假設的績效惡化。這更多是由於經濟不確定性的存在。我們認為進入 2022 年這種情況會加劇，因此我們開始增加這些違約行為最終索賠的可能性。

Now, what's happened since then is that uncertainty hasn't materialized in any performance deterioration, and we've started to release some of those reserves on 2022 accident year delinquencies. And in fact, this quarter, out of the $53 million of reserve releases, a majority of that was on 2022 accident year delinquencies. We still have a view that there is macroeconomic uncertainty present. Obviously, the narrative continues to evolve. And I think the probability of a soft landing has become more in line with the consensus view.

現在，自那時以來發生的情況是，不確定性並未在任何業績惡化中成為現實，我們已開始針對 2022 年事故年的拖欠情況釋放部分準備金。事實上，本季釋放的 5,300 萬美元儲備金中，大部分用於 2022 年事故年的拖欠。我們仍然認為宏觀經濟存在不確定性。顯然，敘事仍在不斷發展。而且我認為軟著陸的可能性已經更符合共識。

And really, our thinking about that 10% claim rate really comes down to our forward view of the macroeconomic conditions and whether we align with the soft landing and the elimination of that macroeconomic uncertainty and/or just the continued experience that credit continue to perform well. I mean, those will be the triggers for us re-evaluating that 10% claim rate. But it is truly not borne out of anything we've seen from an experience perspective and more just a view that there's a presence of heightened economic uncertainty in the market, and we -- it's really in line with our belief and our philosophy on a prudent and measured approach to reserving.

事實上，我們對10% 索賠率的思考實際上取決於我們對宏觀經濟狀況的前瞻性看法，以及我們是否與軟著陸和消除宏觀經濟不確定性保持一致和/或只是信貸繼續表現良好的持續經驗。我的意思是，這些將觸發我們重新評估 10% 的索賠率。但這確實不是基於我們從經驗角度看到的任何事情，而更多只是認為市場上存在高度的經濟不確定性，而我們——這確實符合我們的信念和理念。謹慎而謹慎的儲備方法。

And Mihir, just to add to Dean's point, I agree with everything Dean said. I would just say we are operating in an uncertain and different environment. If you think about the presence of COVID forbearance in our data from 2020 onwards, in all of our delinquencies to claim both roll rate and timing, there's a significant influence by that program, where consumers were not reported delinquent to credit bureaus. And that is something that was not normal. So it's difficult for us to just take last few years of roll rate and extrapolate that.

Mihir，只是為了補充 Dean 的觀點，我同意 Dean 所說的一切。我只想說我們正在一個不確定且不同的環境中運作。如果你考慮一下我們從2020 年起的數據中存在的新冠肺炎寬容，在我們要求滾動率和時間的所有拖欠行為中，就會發現該計劃產生了重大影響，即消費者沒有向信用局報告拖欠行為。這是不正常的。因此，我們很難只根據過去幾年的滾動率來推斷。

I think we recognize that, at some point of time, that will correct to a more historical norm. And that's how we made the determination that, in this environment, it's better for us to be prudent and actually make those assumptions. I believe it's January, February data when we'll finally start seeing a transition from COVID forbearance to non-COVID forbearance in our delinquency data. So as we actually build confidence, in addition to Dean's point on economic environment, as we get more data that has normalized roll rate, we will use that to actually assess our assumptions.

我認為我們認識到，在某個時候，這將糾正為更具歷史性的規範。這就是我們所做的決定，在這種環境下，我們最好保持謹慎並實際做出這些假設。我相信，到了 1 月、2 月的數據時，我們最終將開始看到我們的拖欠數據從新冠肺炎寬限期過渡到非新冠肺炎寬限期。因此，當我們真正建立信心時，除了迪恩關於經濟環境的觀點之外，當我們獲得更多具有標準化滾動率的數據時，我們將用它來實際評估我們的假設。

Okay, so that makes sense. Maybe just switching gears a little bit. I wanted to just touch base on this Australia transaction. I understand it's small. I understand it's a proof point. You're leveraging your mortgage credit experience there. But I was curious, why Australia? Why at this time? Are there other markets you are looking at? I mean, it does -- depending on the size, it gets to it could obviously add a little fair amount of complexity to the business. So just your thoughts on that transaction.

好吧，這是有道理的。也許只是稍微切換一下。我想談談這筆澳洲交易。我明白，它很小。我明白這是一個證據。您正在利用您在那裡的抵押信貸經驗。但我很好奇，為什麼是澳洲？為什麼在這個時候？您還在關注其他市場嗎？我的意思是，它確實會增加業務的複雜性，這取決於規模。所以只是您對該交易的想法。

Absolutely, Mihir, and thank you for the question. So I would just say -- I'll start off by just kind of as a reminder on Enact Re, we watched the GSE CRT space and launched Enact Re to expand our access to new business opportunities, and we did that while keeping in mind that an Enact Re is going to operate in adjacent markets by leveraging our core competencies, which means our technical expertise, our knowledge of mortgage credit, and obviously, disciplined approach to risk management that we have shown for a long period of time.

當然，米希爾，謝謝你的提問。所以我只想說——我首先要提醒一下 Enact Re，我們關注了 GSE CRT 空間並推出了 Enact Re，以擴大我們獲得新商機的機會，我們在這樣做的同時牢記這一點Enact Re 將利用我們的核心能力在鄰近市場開展業務，這意味著我們的技術專長、抵押信貸知識，以及我們長期以來所表現出的嚴格的風險管理方法。

In addition to that, we were setting up Enact Re in a very efficient way, efficient from a capital perspective, efficient from an expense perspective, and efficient from a ratings perspective. So when you think about Enact Re's journey, I'll start off at GSE credit press transfers, we did some transactions back in 2018. We monitored the performance of those transactions, monitored the market, and then set up Enact Re to primarily participate in the GSE CRT transaction. And as I said in my prepared remarks, we have participated in every GSE CRT transaction since the entity was set up, and we find the returns attractive on a risk-adjusted basis and we find the underwriting guidelines and underwriting construct very good.

除此之外，我們以非常有效率的方式建立了 Enact Re，從資本角度來看是高效的，從費用角度來看是高效的，從評級角度來看也是高效的。因此，當您思考 Enact Re 的旅程時，我將從 GSE 信用按轉帳開始，我們在 2018 年進行了一些交易。我們監控了這些交易的表現，監控了市場，然後成立了 Enact Re 主要參與 GSE CRT 交易。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，自該實體成立以來，我們參與了每筆GSE CRT 交易，我們發現在風險調整的基礎上回報很有吸引力，而且我們發現承銷指南和承銷結構非常好。

I think Australia is a similar story. At this point of time, it's a proof point for us, but it's a business that we are very familiar with. We actually used to reinsure Australian business a while ago, so we have some experience in our data in our entity. At the same time, we also have management and employee experience with the Australian market. So we have been monitoring the market for a period of time, and we use that experience to make a call that we'll use a small proof point where the risk-adjusted returns available in the market are good, the market is mature, it's scaled, it's familiar for us, and we use that to basically say we're getting paid well for it. It's accretive for our shareholder value, and the risk in these transactions is very remote.

我認為澳洲也有類似的故事。此時此刻，這對我們來說是一個證明點，但這是我們非常熟悉的業務。實際上，我們不久前曾經對澳洲業務進行過再保險，因此我們對我們實體的數據有一些經驗。同時，我們也擁有澳洲市場的管理和員工經驗。因此，我們已經監視市場一段時間了，我們利用這些經驗做出決定，我們將使用一個小證據點，證明市場上的風險調整回報良好，市場成熟，它是規模化，這對我們來說很熟悉，我們用它來基本上表示我們為此獲得了豐厚的報酬。它可以增加我們的股東價值，而且這些交易的風險非常小。

So I think that's how we think about the construct of how we approach opportunities for Enact Re, and they're going to be measured and limited in terms of how we actually use those screens, if you will, to qualify those opportunities. But that's the construct I will give you, and our intent is to use Enact Re in that way to actually grow that adjacent opportunity here. But primarily, the focus is going to be GSE CRT.

因此，我認為這就是我們如何思考 Enact Re 的機會的建構方式，並且我們將根據我們實際如何使用這些螢幕來衡量和限制這些機會，如果你願意的話，來限定這些機會。但這就是我將向您提供的結構，我們的目的是以這種方式使用 Enact Re 來真正增加這裡的相鄰機會。但首先，重點將是 GSE CRT。

Understood. Okay. And then just my last question, just real big picture, maybe taking a step back. Like you mentioned, a little bit of a unique time for the MI business. That said, credit has been exceptionally good. Maybe you have a little bit of weakness on NIW, but that seems to be getting nicely offset by persistency.

明白了。好的。然後是我的最後一個問題，只是真正的大局，也許退一步。正如您所提到的，對於 MI 業務來說，現在正處於一個獨特的時期。也就是說，信用狀況非常好。也許你在 NIW 方面有一點弱點，但這似乎可以透過堅持來很好地抵消。

So my question to you is, is this as good as it gets? What are some of the big key risks that you're worried about? Maybe even just like -- or anything away from the macro specific to Enact that you can point to? But just trying to understand, is this as good as it gets? What are you most focused on from a risk perspective? Thank you.

所以我問你的問題是，這已經是最好的了嗎？您擔心的主要風險有哪些？甚至可能就像——或者您可以指出的與 Enact 特定的巨集無關的任何內容？但只是想了解一下，這真的是最好的嗎？從風險角度來看，您最關注的是什麼？謝謝。

Yeah, Mihir, I'll start, and Rohit can add. I don't -- it may not be as good as it gets, but certainly, to your point, recent credit performance has definitely been very strong. I think there's lots of reasons for that. Obviously, a quality underwrite, and we validate that through our QA results. We've got strong credit quality, and when we think about that, we think about that through low-layered risk, which we published in our earnings presentation. It's a strong consumer, a strong labor market. Home price appreciation has been meaningful.

是的，米希爾，我開始，羅希特可以補充。我不認為——它可能沒有想像中那麼好，但當然，就你的觀點而言，最近的信用表現肯定非常強勁。我認為這有很多原因。顯然，這是一個高品質的承保，我們透過品質保證結果來驗證這一點。我們擁有良好的信用質量，當我們考慮這一點時，我們會透過低層次風險來考慮這一點，我們在收益報告中發布了這一點。這是一個強大的消費者，一個強大的勞動市場。房價升值意義重大。

And then even for borrowers that have had some financial stress, the availability of loss mitigation options in this market has been significant. So all of that really provides a backdrop for strong credit and the elevated cure activity that we've seen and, I guess, implied in your question is the significant release of reserves that we've seen over the last, whatever, six to eight quarters.

即使對於有一定財務壓力的借款人來說，這個市場上的損失減輕方案的可用性也很重要。因此，所有這些確實為我們所看到的強勁信貸和治療活動的增加提供了背景，我想，您的問題中暗示的是我們在過去看到的儲備的大量釋放，無論如何，六到八宿舍。

Probably not sustainable, I think we would expect some reversion through time. However, as you mentioned, there are some potential offsets in that. You mentioned the smaller mortgage originations market. I would also talk about that from a capital perspective. Given the uncertainty we talked about on one of your earlier questions, we are holding what we would consider to be elevated PMIERs, sufficiency levels, maybe versus what the industry has held pre-pandemic if you go back to 2019.

可能不可持續，我認為我們預計隨著時間的推移會出現一些回歸。然而，正如您所提到的，其中存在一些潛在的抵消。您提到了規模較小的抵押貸款發起市場。我也從資本的角度來談談這個問題。考慮到我們在您之前的一個問題中談到的不確定性，我們持有我們認為較高的PMIER（充足水平），如果您回到2019 年，也許與該行業在大流行前的水平相比。

So is that as good as it gets? I think much like I said, there's probably some reversion in there on a net basis. I think what's possibly missed in that question, though, Mihir, is that you got to couple that with the changes we've made to the business model, which have really derisked the mortgage insurance industry over the last decade plus. Those changes are things like QM, the introduction of PMIERs, capital standards, the risk-based pricing that we've introduced into the market, the ability to very quickly align price with risk, and of course, the mature CRT programs that Enact has, as well as the rest of the industry.

那麼這已經是最好的結果了嗎？我想就像我說的那樣，在網路基礎上可能存在一些回歸。不過，米希爾，我認為這個問題可能遺漏的是，你必須將其與我們對商業模式所做的改變結合起來，這些改變在過去十多年裡確實降低了抵押貸款保險行業的風險。這些變化包括品質管理、PMIER 的引入、資本標準、我們引入市場的基於風險的定價、快速調整價格與風險的能力，當然還有 Enact 的成熟 CRT 計劃以及該行業的其他公司。

All that positively impacted the volatility profile of the business. So even if this is as good as it gets and there's some pullback in returns, we still believe there's significant relative value in Enact and really across the MI industry overall, given the changes we've made to derisk the business model through time.

所有這些都對業務的波動性產生了積極影響。因此，即使這已盡善盡美，並且回報有所回落，考慮到我們為降低商業模式風險而做出的改變，我們仍然相信 Enact 以及整個 MI 行業具有顯著的相對價值。

Yeah. And I think I agree with everything Dean said, Mihir. The only thing I'll add is, if you think about NIW, there is definitely some upside in market size. We have talked about the pent-up first-time home buyer demand that's in the market. The demographics are very supportive of our industry. First-time home buyers use private mortgage insurance 60% of the time to get into homes. So as we think about this big wave of folks getting to first-time home buying age of 33 years old all the way up to 2026, that can actually give us some serious upside on NIW.

是的。我想我同意 Dean 所說的一切，Mihir。我唯一要補充的是，如果你考慮 NIW，市場規模肯定有一些上升空間。我們已經討論過市場上被壓抑的首次購屋者需求。人口統計數據非常支持我們的行業。首次購屋者 60% 的時間使用私人抵押貸款保險來購屋。因此，當我們想到到 2026 年，首次購屋年齡將達到 33 歲的一大波人群時，這實際上可以為我們帶來國家利益豁免 (NIW) 的一些重大優勢。

And I think from an expense and CRT perspective, which are the cost of the business, we have started giving proof points for the market in terms of how we are showing efficiency in the market. So we reduce our expenses year over year by 7%. We have given expense guidance for 2024 that's relatively flat. So if the revenue line goes up, we can keep expenses increasing at a slower pace than revenues, then that starts creating more margin in the business.

我認為，從費用和 CRT 的角度來看，即業務成本，我們已經開始為市場提供證據，證明我們如何在市場上展示效率。因此我們的開支年減了 7%。我們給出的 2024 年費用指引相對持平。因此，如果收入線上升，我們可以保持支出成長速度低於收入成長速度，然後就開始為業務創造更多利潤。

And then from a capital perspective, I think back in 2019, pre-COVID, the industry was closer to 145% PMIERs ratio. Given the uncertainty in the market, industry has operated with higher capital. So at some point of time, there could be some normalizing in that ratio, and that could settle at a different level. But completely agree with Dean that, when you think about that return against mortgage risk as an asset class, which has been significantly derisked after Dodd-Frank, whether it's the definition of qualified mortgage, risk-based capital, risk-based pricing, as well as CRT and new master policies, I think it's a much better industry and much more stable industry with very strong returns.

然後從資本的角度來看，我認為在 2019 年新冠疫情之前，該行業的 PMIER 比率接近 145%。鑑於市場的不確定性，產業以較高的資本運作。因此，在某個時間點，該比率可能會正常化，並且可能會穩定在不同的水平。但完全同意迪恩的觀點，當你將抵押貸款風險回報視為一種資產類別時，在多德弗蘭克法案之後，這種資產類別的風險已大大降低，無論是合格抵押貸款的定義、基於風險的資本、基於風險的定價，還是以及 CRT 和新的整體政策，我認為這是一個更好的行業，更穩定的行業，具有非常強勁的回報。

That makes sense. Thank you for taking my questions.

這就說得通了。感謝您回答我的問題。

Geoffrey Dunn, Dowling & Partners.

傑弗瑞‧鄧恩 (Geoffrey Dunn)，道林合夥人事務所。

Thanks. Good morning. I have two questions. First, a mechanical question on the forward XOLs. Do you set the quarterly cede or coverage rate at a rate that anticipates hitting your limit? And if that limit is plus or minus going into the fourth quarter, do you have a true up, true down to max out your limit on those?

謝謝。早安.我有兩個問題。首先，關於前向 XOL 的機械問題。您是否將季度讓出或覆蓋率設定為預計會達到您的極限的比率？如果進入第四季度該限制是正數或負數，那麼您是否有真正的上漲、真正的下跌來最大限度地發揮這些限制？

Yeah. So we definitely set the limit with our production -- our view of forward production in mind. And then, if, for whatever reason, production comes in lighter, it gets absorbed into the transaction heavier, we go back and we work with our reinsurers to modify the agreement and bring that back in line with our original intent, Geoff. So that is -- it's a more mechanical or amendment type exercise if production comes in heavier than expectations. It's not built into the contract, maybe said differently.

是的。因此，我們肯定會對我們的生產設定限制——我們對遠期生產的看法。然後，如果無論出於何種原因，生產量減少，它被吸收到交易中，我們就會回去與我們的再保險公司合作修改協議，使其符合我們最初的意圖，傑夫。也就是說，如果生產量超過預期，那麼這將是一項更機械或修正類型的活動。也許換句話說，它沒有寫入合約。

Got it. I wanted to ask a little bit more about the expectation for capital return. With over $1 billion of surplus and a lot of precedents for running that a lot lower in the industry, regardless of your state of domicile, that doesn't seem to be the restriction and, alone, would point to a bigger capital return opportunity than the $300 million or so you're talking about. So is the read-through here that the more constraining factor is where you're trying to target your PMIERs ratio?

知道了。我想多問一點關於資本回報的預期。憑藉超過10 億美元的盈餘，並且該行業有很多以較低水平運行盈餘的先例，無論您的居住地如何，這似乎都不是限制，僅此一項，就意味著比該行業更大的資本回報機會你所說的大約3億美元。那麼，這裡通讀一下，是否更具限制性的因素是您試圖設定 PMIER 比率的目標？

Yeah. I think, right now, we're early in the year. There's obviously a lot of things that have to take place in terms of business performance, in terms of macroeconomic performance, over the course of the year. I think as we look forward, and this is predicated in part what Rohit said, the progress we've made on our CRT program, the success we've had not only in covering the back book, but on the forward books we just talked about with 2024 quota share and XOL, that gives us -- that effectively sets the table. It gives us the confidence to be able to provide the $300 million return of capital guidance on a full-year basis.

是的。我認為，現在我們正處於年初。在這一年中，就業務表現、宏觀經濟表現而言，顯然有很多事情需要發生。我認為，當我們展望未來時，這在一定程度上是基於羅希特所說的，我們在CRT 計劃上取得的進展，我們不僅在涵蓋後書方面取得了成功，而且在我們剛才談到的前書方面也取得了成功關於 2024 年配額份額和 XOL，這為我們提供了有效的設定。這讓我們有信心能夠提供全年 3 億美元的資本回報指引。

And then, much like I said, it's going to be driven by -- the ultimate return of capital will be influenced by how the business performs over the course of 2024, the macroeconomic environment that emerges, and we'll continue to assess that through time. And to the extent there is more opportunity, we'll take that under advisement and come back and inform the market at that time.

然後，就像我說的那樣，最終的資本回報將受到 2024 年企業表現、出現的宏觀經濟環境的影響，我們將繼續透過以下方式進行評估：時間。如果有更多機會，我們會考慮這一點，然後再回來通知市場。

Yeah. I think, Geoff, I would just -- I think Dean laid it out well. I would just tie it back to the capital prioritization framework we have talked about. So the first priority is for capital to support our existing policyholders, followed by new business opportunity, new insurance written, and then any other adjacent opportunities, and finally, capital return.

是的。我想，傑夫，我只是——我認為迪恩把它安排得很好。我只是將其與我們討論過的資本優先順序框架聯繫起來。因此，首要任務是讓資本支持我們現有的保單持有人，其次是新的商業機會、新的保險，然後是任何其他相鄰的機會，最後是資本回報。

I would say, from an economic perspective, just watching how Fed's actions finally have an impact on the economy, we have seen that view change several times over the last two years. So just being mindful that we need to have the right amount of capital for that economic uncertainty, and as that certainty presents itself, that will give us more confidence on how much capital we need to support our existing book.

我想說，從經濟角度來看，只要觀察聯準會的行動最終如何對經濟產生影響，我們就可以看到這種觀點在過去兩年中多次改變。因此，只要記住，我們需要擁有適量的資本來應對經濟的不確定性，隨著這種確定性的出現，這將使我們對需要多少資本來支持我們現有的書更有信心。

And then from a new insurance written perspective, I think the answer I previously gave that there's a lot of pent-up demand in the market at some point of time, with the right mortgage rate in the market, right affordability equation, do we actually get a bigger market size opportunity? So we would target that.

然後從新的保險書面角度來看，我認為我之前給出的答案是，在某個時間點，市場上存在大量被壓抑的需求，市場上有正確的抵押貸款利率，正確的負擔能力方程式，我們實際上是否這樣做？獲得更大市場規模的機會？所以我們會以此為目標。

And then I would just add a consideration that we also keep the other constituents in mind. So rating agencies have their views on the right target for PMIERs, which is kind of where you started. So all those considerations give us the current level of PMIERs we are targeting and the current capital return guidance we gave. But to Dean's point, as our view continues to evolve through the year, then we will revisit that as we have done in prior years.

然後我想補充一點，我們也牢記其他成分。因此，評級機構對 PMIER 的正確目標有自己的看法，這就是您的起點。因此，所有這些考慮因素為我們提供了我們當前目標的 PMIER 水平以及我們給出的當前資本回報指導。但就迪恩而言，隨著我們的觀點在這一年中不斷發展，我們將像前幾年一樣重新審視這一點。

Eric Hagen, BTIG.

艾瑞克‧哈根，BTIG。

Hey, good morning. This is Jake on for Eric. Thank you for taking my questions. First one, can you share how the premium yield in the 2022 and 2023 vintages compares to the premium yield in the earlier pandemic vintages? Thanks.

嗨，早安。這是傑克替艾瑞克發言。感謝您回答我的問題。首先，您能否分享一下 2022 年和 2023 年年份的保費收益率與早期大流行年份的保費收益率相比如何？謝謝。

Good morning, Jake. So we have not historically shared our premium yield by vintage. As you can imagine, our risk-based pricing engines are opaque to the market, opaque to our peers, and the strategy we deploy in terms of risk selection and pricing is a competitive differentiator for us. So we generally provide pricing color on pricing action.

早上好，傑克。因此，我們歷來沒有按年份分享我們的溢價收益率。正如您所想的那樣，我們基於風險的定價引擎對市場、對同業都是不透明的，而我們在風險選擇和定價方面部署的策略對我們來說是一個競爭優勢。因此，我們通常會為定價行為提供定價顏色。

I would simply point you back to the disclosures we have made in prior earnings calls, where we talked about stabilizing our price in the middle part of 2022, and then starting to increase price in third quarter of 2022, and then I have since given updates on our pricing action almost every quarter. So outside of providing that qualitative guidance in the direction of price changes, I would say it's tough to provide any specific comparison between vintages.

我只想向您指出我們在之前的財報電話會議中所做的披露，其中我們談到了在 2022 年中期穩定我們的價格，然後在 2022 年第三季度開始提高價格，然後我提供了更新幾乎每個季度都會對我們的定價行為進行評估。因此，除了提供價格變化方向的定性指導之外，我想說很難提供年份之間的任何具體比較。

Got you. Appreciate that color. And then my second one, could you talk about how much PMIERs credit you expect to receive from the two CRT transactions you have in place for your 2024 production? Thanks.

明白你了。欣賞那個顏色。然後是我的第二個問題，您能否談談您希望從 2024 年生產的兩筆 CRT 交易中獲得多少 PMIER 信用？謝謝。

Yeah. So Jake, thanks for the question. I think, on the XOL, we've identified that as approximately $250 million. I think it was $255 million of PMIERs credit. And then a little bit to Geoff's question earlier, the quota share will be predicated. It's a 21% session on our 2024 NIW, so it's going to be predicated on the NIW levels that we produce over the course of the coming year. So it's harder to give you a discrete number at this point in time. That will be firmed up as our NIW numbers or levels crystallize over the course of 2024.

是的。傑克，謝謝你的提問。我認為，在 XOL 上，我們確定該金額約為 2.5 億美元。我認為 PMIER 的信用額為 2.55 億美元。然後再回答傑夫之前提出的問題，配額份額將被預測。這是我們 2024 年 NIW 的 21% 會議，因此它將基於我們在未來一年產生的 NIW 水平。所以現在很難給你一個離散的數字。隨著我們的 NIW 數字或等級在 2024 年具體化，這一點將會得到鞏固。

Got you. All right. Thank you, guys.

明白你了。好的。感謝你們。

Arren Cyganovich, Citi.

阿倫·西加諾維奇，花旗銀行。

Thanks. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the expectations for insurance in force growth for the year. You mentioned that your production or the industry production might be flattish year over year. But you saw some pretty nice insurance in force growth this year, even while your production slowed. Just wondering if you'll see some kind of similar dynamics given the high persistency.

謝謝。我想知道您是否可以談談對今年保險保力成長的預期。您提到您的產量或產業產量可能與去年同期持平。但今年你看到了一些相當不錯的保險在部隊成長中，即使你的生產放緩了。只是想知道，鑑於高持久性，您是否會看到某種類似的動態。

Good morning, Arren. So I will take an attempt at that. I think, so obviously, the piece parts are the amount of NIW we can add in 2024 and what lapse do we see in our existing book. Given our guidance on MI market size, you can actually range bound our new insurance written for 2024 based on that number. And obviously, 2023 full market size is not yet known because only two MI companies have reported for Q4. But I think that's a narrow range. That gives you an idea on insurance in force growth driven by NIW.

早安，阿倫。所以我會嘗試一下。我認為，很明顯，各個部分是我們在 2024 年可以增加的 NIW 數量以及我們在現有書中看到的失誤。根據我們對 MI 市場規模的指導，您實際上可以根據該數字對 2024 年新承保的保險進行範圍限制。顯然，2023 年的完整市場規模尚不清楚，因為只有兩家 MI 公司報告了第四季度的情況。但我認為這是一個狹窄的範圍。這讓您對國家利益豁免 (NIW) 推動的保險保力成長有了一個了解。

I think the big question becomes on lapse. And lapse is highly dependent in trust rates in the market. I think the confidence we have, and Dean mentioned this in our prepared remarks, that as we talk about lapse in our book, the fact that only 4% of our book, 4% of policies have a 50-basis-point threshold for a refinance incentive right now, or they're within the 50-basis-point threshold, gives you an idea on the refinance exposure. But as in trust rates change in the market, which is both driven by a 10-year treasury yield and the spread, I think that can change that number.

我認為最大的問題是失誤。失效很大程度取決於市場的信任率。我認為我們有信心，迪恩在我們準備好的發言中提到了這一點，當我們在書中談論失誤時，事實是，我們書中只有4%、4% 的政策設定了50 個基點的門檻。現在的再融資激勵，或它們在 50 個基點的閾值內，可以讓您了解再融資風險。但正如市場上的信託利率變化一樣，它是由 10 年期公債殖利率和利差驅動的，我認為這可能會改變這個數字。

So I'm not giving you a straight answer. But we can see an increase in our insurance in force growth based on those dynamics. But I would say if the market size is small, that growth is going to be subdued by that factor itself.

所以我不會給你一個直接的答案。但我們可以看到，基於這些動態，我們的保險力量成長有所增加。但我想說，如果市場規模很小，那麼成長將受到該因素本身的抑制。

Okay, got it. That's helpful. And the follow-up to that would be on the persistency. I looked at the risk or the insurance in force that you have laid out with the mortgage rates. And really, it's only the 2023 vintage, which is about 20% of the book. And that's currently at current mortgage rates. So would you have to see mortgage rates fall by 50 basis points or more to really see a notable decline in the persistency?

好，知道了。這很有幫助。後續行動將是持久性。我查看了您根據抵押貸款利率制定的風險或有效保險。事實上，這只是 2023 年的年份，約佔本書的 20%。這是目前的抵押貸款利率。那麼，是否必須看到抵押貸款利率下降 50 個基點或更多，才能真正看到持久性顯著下降？

Yeah, I think that's right. So Rohit, you lay out on page 10 of our earnings presentation, we give the if by book year and the associated average mortgage rate. And you're exactly correct that, really, the only cohort that is really on average near the current prevailing mortgage interest rate is 2023. And that is about 20% of our overall insurance in force portfolio. You need to see a meaningful change in rate to economically incent the 2023 borrowers to refinance. And quite frankly, the earlier vintages, it takes a much bigger change in mortgage rates for that economic incentive to emerge.

是的，我認為這是對的。羅希特，您在我們的收益簡報的第 10 頁上列出了我們按圖書年份列出的情況以及相關的平均抵押貸款利率。你說得完全正確，事實上，唯一真正接近當前現行抵押貸款利率的平均利率是 2023 年。這約占我們整體有效保險組合的 20%。您需要看到利率發生有意義的變化，才能在經濟上激勵 2023 年借款人進行再融資。坦白說，在早期年份，抵押貸款利率需要發生更大的變化才能出現經濟誘因。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

Thank you. And that's all the time we have for the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Rohit Gupta for any closing remarks.

謝謝。這就是我們問答環節的全部時間。現在，我將把電話轉回給羅希特·古普塔先生，讓其發表結束語。

Thanks, Olivia. Thank you, everyone. We appreciate your interest in Enact, and I look forward to seeing some of you in Florida at the Bank of America Financial Services Conference. Thank you.

謝謝，奧莉維亞。謝謝大家。我們感謝您對 Enact 的興趣，我期待在佛羅裡達州的美國銀行金融服務會議上見到你們中的一些人。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。