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Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Axcelis Technologies call to discuss the company's results for the fourth quarter 2017. My name is Amanda, and I will be your coordinator for today. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mary Puma, President and CEO of Axcelis Technologies. Please proceed, ma'am.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Thank you, Amanda. With me today is Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO; and Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy. If you have not seen a copy of our press release, issued earlier today, it is available on our website. Playback service will also be available on our website, as described in our press release. Please note that comments made today about expectations for future revenues, profits and other results are forward-looking statements under the SEC's Safe Harbor provision.
These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks inherent in our business. These risks are described in detail in our Form 10-K annual report and other SEC filings, which we urge you to review. Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.
In this call, we will provide some non-GAAP financial information to allow for period-to-period comparisons, given accounting events that occurred in the quarter. Reconciliation to GAAP can be found in the press release and investor presentation posted to our website today.
The strong semiconductor market in 2017 provided a great backdrop for additional Purion market share growth.
Systems revenue grew by 89% year-over-year with Purion representing 87% of this systems revenue.
During the year, Axcelis shipped Purion systems to 18 new customer fabs. 7 of these sites represent new Purion customers, the other 11 locations are first in-fab Purion placements by existing Purion customers. The increase of existing customers populating additional fabs with Purion is a strong indicator of its share growth potential. The year started with strong Purion XE and Purion VXE sales for 3D NAND, image sensor and mature foundry/logic applications. Purion H ramped throughout the year, and by Q4 represented the highest percentage of shipped systems.
Strong Purion H bookings have continued into 2018. During the year, 5 new customers adopted Purion H and 2 existing customers added Purion H to a new fab. The Purion product family now has tool of record status at 7 of the top 10 CapEx spenders in the industry.
Two of our 2018 objectives, penetrating advanced logic and reentering Japan will provide access to the remaining 3 in the top 10.
Purion H already has tool of record status at 5 of the top 10. And we believe we have the opportunity to significantly increase this number in 2018.
Regaining market share leadership in ion implantation remains our primary objective. With Purion technology now firmly rooted in the customer base, we have confidence we can achieve this. Our customer's primary buying criteria is based on technology. Competitive pricing pressure should be seen as further proof of Purion's technology advantages and Axcelis' ability to take additional market share.
2018 is shaping up to be another strong year, driven once again by IoT, data storage and data analytics. We expect to continue to gain market share with a revenue target in 2018 of approximately $450 million. To achieve this revenue growth in 2018, we will focus on 4 objectives. Grow our footprint within our existing customer base, with a focus on large memory customers; establish Purion in the nascent domestic Chinese memory market; penetrate the advanced foundry/logic market segment with Purion; and reenter the Japanese market, which represents approximately 15% of the ion implant TAM. 3 out of 4 of these objectives are greenfield opportunities for Axcelis that can translate directly to market share gains.
I'd like to take a moment to summarize a few of our fourth quarter 2017 financial results and provide Q1 guidance. Revenues for the quarter were $116.4 million with non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.47. Results for the quarter were above guidance and current consensus estimates.
2017 revenues were $410.6 million with non-GAAP earnings per share of 1 -- $1.48. Our systems mix in the quarter was 57% mature foundry/logic, highlighting the continued strength of the Internet of Things.
Memory comprised the remaining 43% of systems shipments. For the full year, our systems mix was 56% mature foundry/logic and 44% memory. The geographic mix of our systems shipments were Korea, 52%; China, 20%; and the U.S. and Europe, 17%.
Turning to guidance for the first quarter, we are forecasting revenues of between $115 million and $120 million. We expect gross margins of approximately 38%, operating income of $16 million to $17 million and EPS of $0.34 to $0.37, including a noncash tax expense of $0.10.
The industry is in a very strong sustained cycle and it appears that 2018 will be another good year. This cycle continues to be driven by IoT in the mature foundry/logic market, data storage in the 3D NAND market and data analytics in the DRAM and advanced logic segments. New customers and new technologies are ramping in the memory market, opening new prospects for Axcelis. With all of this activity, we are already seeing strong bookings into the second quarter. Now I'd like to turn it over to Kevin to discuss our financials.
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Thank you, Mary. Axcelis delivered solid fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results, driven by our highest revenue level in 10 years.
In the year we generated $56.3 million of cash from operations and ended the year with a cash balance of $140.9 million, up $63.2 million for the year.
Strength in the overall semiconductor market continues to provide Axcelis with an opportunity to firmly establish Purion across a broader customer base.
In the quarter, we recognized 2 evaluation units and shipped one new Purion H evaluation system to a multinational 3D NAND customer in China.
In Q4, we executed a reversal of our deferred tax asset valuation allowance, based on 13 consecutive quarters of profitability and a positive outlook for 2018 and beyond. This, along with other related impacts, resulted in a Q4 tax benefit of $81.6 million or $2.39 per share. Our deferred tax assets will be used to offset future state and federal tax expense and U.S. profits until they are fully depleted.
In Q4, we also recorded a $6.2 million excess inventory reserve on legacy products, resulting from the success of our Purion.
While market share growth is our primary objective in 2018, gross margin improvement remains a top priority within the business. We continue to make solid progress on supply chain, engineering and manufacturing cost-out initiatives and have increased our rolling-4-quarter average on system standard margins by 1,500 basis points, since full launch of the Purion product line.
As is typical, quarterly gross margin will continue to be influenced by the number of evaluation tools converted to revenue, the mix of system revenue versus CS&I revenue, the mix of products and customers and competitive pricing pressures as we continue to gain momentum with the Purion H. Now I'll review the fourth quarter and full year 2017 financial results. Q4 revenue finished at $116.4 million compared to $104.5 million in Q3. Q4 system sales were $75.8 million compared to $69.2 million in Q3.
Q4 CS&I revenue finished at $40.6 million compared to $35.3 million in Q3, driven by higher spare parts and upgrades.
Full year 2017 revenue finished at $410.6 million, up 54% compared to $267 million in 2016. System revenue for the year was $262.7 million, up 89% compared to $139.3 million in 2016.
Q4 sales for our top 10 customers accounted for approximately 64% of our total sales, compared to 80% in Q3 with one of these customers at 10% or above. Q4 system bookings were $103.8 million compared to $83.2 million in Q3, while the Q4 book-to-bill ratio of 1.35 versus 1.18 in Q3. Backlog in the fourth quarter including deferred revenue finished at $87.3 million compared to $58.5 million in Q3.
Q4 combined SG&A and R&D spending was $26 million compared to $25.9 million in Q3.
SG&A in the quarter was $15.1 million with R&D at $10.9 million.
In Q1, we expect SG&A and R&D spending to be approximately 25% of revenues and in line with our target business model. Q4 gross margin was 31.5%, which included an excess inventory reserve of $6.2 million. Excluding this reserve, gross margin would've been 38 -- 36.8% compared to 38% in Q3.
As we discussed in our Q3 earnings call, Q4 gross margin would be impacted by significantly higher Purion H shipments, that currently have lower standard margin than other Purion products. We are continuing to make good progress with our cost-out initiatives, are aggressively working to close the gap between Purion H and other Purion products. You can find additional details on our standard margins in our investor presentation.
Full year 2017 gross margin was 36.6% compared to 37.3% in 2016. Excluding the impact of the excess inventory reserve, full year gross margin would've been 38.1%, our highest annual level in 11 years.
In Q1, we expect gross margin to be approximately 38%. Operating profit in Q4 was $10.8 million compared to $13.8 million in Q3. Excluding the $6.2 million excess inventory reserve, operating profit would have been $16.9 million.
Full year 2017 operating profit was $47.8 million compared to $16.6 million in 2016. Excluding the excess inventory reserve, full year operating profit would've been $54 million, up 225% over 2016.
Q4 net income was $91.7 million, or $2.68 per share compared to $0.35 per share in Q3.
In the quarter, we realized a tax benefit of $81.6 million, due principally to the release of the tax valuation allowance and related impacts, and recorded an excess inventory reserve of $6.2 million. Excluding these items, net income would have been $16.2 million or $0.47 per share. Full year net income was $127 million compared to net income of $11 million in 2016. Excluding the impact of the previously discussed items, full year net income would have been $49.5 million or $1.48 per share compared to $0.36 in 2016, an increase of 311%.
We are guiding Q1 earnings of $0.34 to $0.37 per share, including a noncash tax expense of $0.10. Q4 inventory ended at $120.5 million compared to $123.4 million in Q3. Q4 inventory turns, excluding evaluation tools, finished at 2.7 compared to 2.2 in Q3. Q4 accounts payable were $32.6 million, compared to $33.6 million in Q3. Q4 receivables were $75.3 million compared to $69.8 million in Q3, driven by the timing of shipments.
2017 year-end cash finished at $140.9 million compared to $120.1 million in Q3.
In 2016 year-end cash finished at $77.7 million.
We expect Q1 cash to finish at approximately $145 million.
Axcelis delivered a significant improvement in full year and quarterly operating results, thanks to the hard work of all our employees and strong demand for our products.
In 2016, we penetrated 18 new customer fabs with Purion and drove the highest revenue and operating profit in 10 years. Solid cash generation in the year further strengthened our balance sheet, which allows us to continue to make critical investments to grow the business. We are now focused on 2018 and beyond, share gain and improving gross margins are our top priorities.
Thank you. I will now turn the call back to Mary for closing comments.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Thank you, Kevin. Our customers have a choice in implant and as the numbers show, they are choosing Axcelis. They choose Axcelis for Purion platform technology, for solutions tailored to their needs in the form of Purion product extensions and for the innovation benefit they gain from a more competitive ion implant market.
I'd also like to thank our employees and their families for our success last year. Without their dedication and support, none of our achievements would be possible.
Next month marks the company's 40th anniversary. The journey began in 1978 in a shed in Middleton, Massachusetts. Our founders knew 2 things. They wanted to build a high current implanter and they wanted to be disruptive. They didn't realize it then, but they were already starting to tackle problems that would lay the foundation for the connected world we live in today.
Since that day, the company has led the implant industry, through the introduction of innovative technology and its breadth of product lines. The world around us is changing fast and our technology helps drive that change. Many thanks to all of our stakeholders, employees, customers, suppliers and shareholders for your support and commitment. We have accomplished a lot here in our first 40 years and we look forward to continuing this success moving forward.
With that, I'd like to open it up for questions.
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Edwin Mok of Needham & Company.
Edwin Mok - Senior Analyst
Congrats for a great quarter. So my first question, I think, recently at a conference, you guys talk about a $450 million revenue number for this year. But you guys are starting the year pretty strong and it seems like pretty -- actually, your run rate is actually kind of above that right? Is there a way to walk us through how you think about the year progress? And if that $450 million is still a starting point? Any way you can describe that?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Yes. Edwin, the issue for us right now, as I mentioned in the script, is that we have pretty good visibility into Q2. But beyond that, so that would be the second half of the year, we really don't have visibility and that's something that's actually quite normal for us at this point in the year. So the issue at this point is that we can't really make a call on the second half of the year, but we have enough confidence in the projects that are out there and the strength of the Purion platform that the $450 million revenue is the right revenue to target in the year. And again, it's around $450 million, so we'll just have to play it out and as we get further into the year, we can likely provide more color on that.
Edwin Mok - Senior Analyst
Okay, that's fair. Visibility in this space is always tough. Second question I have, I guess, a question for you Kevin. On first quarter, you guys guided -- you guided for your gross margin to basically recover to 38%, but from your commentary, sounds like you have a lot momentum on Purion H, which is still the lowest gross margin product. What allowed you to push the margin back to 38%? And should we expect more improvement beyond that?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Well, in our target model, we did say that we were targeting 39%, so 38%, Edwin, is right in line with where I would want to be at this point in time. As you point out, we do have a lot of momentum with Purion H and in the quarter, Purion H still represents a fairly large number of the shipments. We are making progress on cost out and that's the 1 lever that we can control entirely right now and we are pushing the teams aggressively to see what we can do to grind more cost out of these.
So based on the cost improvement we've made and then the mix we got coming at us, 38% is where I think we'll be. And again, we are still targeting that 39% on a $450 million model, which is what we are running at this year.
Edwin Mok - Senior Analyst
Okay, that's helpful. Last question I have. Obviously, you guys have done really well with -- '17 was a really strong growth year clearly gaining share there. Have you started to see increased competition from -- not just from the large big competitor out there, obviously, the largest equipment company out there, but also from your Japanese competitor? Have you seen like competition from either front? And what are you guys doing to address potentially more aggressive moves by those competitors?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
I don't think we've seen any significant change in the competitive landscape. Our primary competitor's Applied Materials, which shouldn't be a surprise to anybody. And we -- I would say, infrequently run into some of the more niche players. But again, the market share that we've been taking away to get to -- I think we ended up at 27% -- 27.4% based on the $1 billion TAM, really has come from Applied.
Edwin Mok - Senior Analyst
Again, you don't think that your -- or you haven't seen at least Applied trying to get more aggressive on commercial term pricing and potentially new product offering?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Well, at the end of the day, we all know that customers ultimately select products based on technology and the Purion products are very competitive for a multitude of applications. So we did -- we have talked about how we've seen some pricing pressure. We expect that, that's a near-term phenomenon, as we gain market share, particularly as we gain market share with the Purion H. But we believe that when we reach market share leadership, we think that pricing pressure will ease up and again, it's all about the technology and Purion is winning. So we feel like we've got superior technology.
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Craig Ellis of B. Riley.
Peter Peng - Associate Analyst
This is Peter Peng calling in for Craig Ellis. On your $1 billion -- $1 billion implant target, just wondering, your [lot] share was talking about a low double-digit WFE growth and 85% of that is memory driven, so why wouldn't we, kind of, argue for something similar to that? Given that DRAM intensity is and NAND intensity is highest for ion implantation?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
Peter, this is Doug. Implanters are primarily -- the competitive platform for implanters is primarily on productivity. And so that's -- unfortunately that takes away from a pure one-for-one TAM growth, as you look at WFE growth. So that's the primary factor.
Peter Peng - Associate Analyst
Okay. And if I kind of do the revenues and back out into the share gain, it seems like it's a 400 basis point of share gain from 2017 to 2018. Given that you laid out 4 initiatives, should I kind of be assuming 100 basis points for each initiative? Or should I kind of be placing more on existing memory customer versus penetration and logic? How should I kind of think about that?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
Well, I don't know if you can necessarily divvy it up evenly. I think the best way to look at is the existing customer base is, obviously -- they have us as their tool of record. We are working with them on additional recipes and as they add wafer starts we're tool of record. So that's the most likely place where you gain share most quickly.
When we look at China, we have a very strong base in China, as they build, which they are expected to build, especially in the second part of the year, pretty aggressively, then we would expect we will get our fair share of business there. The advanced logic and Japanese markets are longer-term within the model and so we are hoping that we'll ship tools and have evaluation units go out in 2018 and that would give us the opportunity for substantial revenue as we go into '19 and '20. So they are really more critical to the $550 million model than to the $450 million. So I mean, that's the best way to look at it. I'm not sure you can divvy it up because there's a lot of projects for each of those segments.
Peter Peng - Associate Analyst
Okay. And just on the first half revenue expectations, given that it's a memory-loaded kind of first half, should we be thinking that's similar for Axcelis, that it's going to be memory heavy on the first half versus...
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
No. I mean, we have -- typically for the last 3 or 4 years have now been split pretty evenly, annually between the mature process, foundry/logic type customers and memory. And we continue to see that split pretty strong and pretty evenly. So it varies quarter-to-quarter to some degree, but you shouldn't assume, make the assumption that it will be very heavily weighted towards one or the other in any of the given quarters.
Peter Peng - Associate Analyst
So it's more equally balanced?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
Yes, the thing that you have to look at is the implant technology, again based on the fact that it's very productivity driven and it's very device driven, has a lot more opportunity in the mature markets and in the older foundries than many of the other process tools. So that's one of the key reasons why we see that difference in weighting.
Peter Peng - Associate Analyst
Okay. One more question, before I hop back into the queue. The pricing pressure, is that a statement to the Purion H product or is that also applicable to the Purion XE?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
It's mostly a function of the Purion H. We are gaining pretty rapid market share with the Purion H. If you look back we only introduced the product at the end of 2014 and here we are, by the end of 2017 with having the Purion as a process tool of record in 7 out of the 10 largest CapEx spenders.
So, we've talked before how it's the most rapidly adopted product in Axcelis' history, so it's something that's happened very quickly and has attracted some notice by our competitor. But again, it's all about the technology. The Purion H has very strong competitive technology with multiple advantages for our customers and so again, there is some pressure here in the near-term, but we think longer-term, that's going to subside and we are going to just continue to win with Purion.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Christian Schwab of Craig-Hallum.
Unidentified Analyst
This is Tyler on behalf of Christian. So first, the evaluation tool that you are shipping to China, can you help me with the timing of that? With gross margin guidance in Q1 going to 38%, am I right to assume that's not being recognized in Q2? And that it would probably be recognized in Q1 -- and it would be recognized in Q2 then?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Well, typically evaluation tools are out anywhere from 6 to 12 months before they are recognized. So you're correct in assuming that would not be in the Q1 numbers.
Unidentified Analyst
So.
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
It will be a future quarter, yes, 6 to 12 months is a typical eval.
Unidentified Analyst
Okay. And then on the same lines of previous question, just for seasonality through the year, earlier today, another peer in the semiconductor space discussed what they thought semi equipment CapEx would be strong through 2018 but it would be front-end loaded. Do you agree with that? Could CapEx improve through the back half of the year?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
Well, I think it's really a function of visibility, Tyler. And as Mary said earlier, we have good visibility in the first couple of quarters. Actually a little bit longer than -- a little bit deeper than we normally do. And so at this point, it's really hard for us to judge exactly which projects are going to move faster, slower -- as we get into the second half. And there's a lot of opportunity out there. A lot of people building shelves and there has not been a change in the demand on the memory side. That was highlighted in some recent memory company announcements and as we've talked about the IoT and the mature technology continues to be very strong for implant. As a function of the fact that they need faster and more productive implanters to be able to support the growing number of products and devices in their fabs.
Operator
And the next question comes from the line of Patrick Ho of Stifel.
Patrick Ho - Director & Senior Research Analyst
First, in regards to the opportunity with the indigenous Chinese manufacturers that you've talked about -- talked about the shipping of an evaluation system. I guess, twofold. One, how many more do you see potential evaluations in 2018 with other Chinese memory vendors? and maybe for Kevin, in terms of the cost, the multinationals are well established in China, you probably support and service them pretty strongly with the infrastructure you have in place. But how much do you have to expand the Chinese infrastructure to serve the local vendors, which tend to be a little more spread out?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
So, Patrick, this is Doug. Just the evaluation unit actually went to a multinational. So we have shipped tools in the quarter to the domestic memory customers, but those aren't the eval. The eval went to a multinational, just to clarify that. As far as the staffing requirements and so forth to support it, it is something that we've talked about. We have been investing pretty heavily over the last year, as these new projects have come up. I'm going to let Kevin comment additionally on that.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Can I just say something else? Patrick, there are additional units that will go out to some of these new memory manufacturers in China likely in 2018 and some of them may spill into 2019, again based on the timing that Doug talked about. It's just simply a matter of when the projects are going to start up.
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
So, Patrick, we did have infrastructure in China, we did also last year continue to talk about adding to that infrastructure. I think we made some really good inroads in 2017 building things up. There is still more planned for this year. But that all fits within the 25% of revenue in the OpEx model that we have out there for our $450 million target. So we are still investing, but again it's covered. It's not outside of what we have in our model.
Patrick Ho - Director & Senior Research Analyst
Great, that's helpful. And maybe, as my follow-up question and maybe again for you, Kevin. In terms of the GSS business, which continues to show growth year-over-year and given the adoption of Purion and the rapid pace that you're seeing, what kind of qualitative commentary can you give on the GSS opportunity, particularly in 2018 given the rapid growth of systems in 2017?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
So if I look at the whole aftermarket business, which has used tools in it and spare parts and service and upgrades, there is no doubt the more tools we ship that adds to that base business. But you've got to kind of rebaseline that. If you include our implanters and strip products, there's probably 3,000 tools out there. So although we are shipping new tools out, and that will add to the share, it's not going to spike it. So where we are really looking to grow, Patrick, is on the upgrade business, because we have such a large install base.
And a lot of these tools are very old because an implant will last for a very long time. We have -- we've added quite a bit of resource to the engineering team to develop, what we consider, high-margin upgrades to, kind of, really push the revenue higher there. So yes, Purion will add to the base, but the faster growth is going to be coming through upgrades and a little bit through winning back some business that the third parties have captured. We've got some innovative ideas how we can go about doing that with designs and things.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Particularly the spares and consumables area.
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Yes.
Operator
Our next question is from the line of David Duley of Steelhead.
David Duley - Managing Principal
Yes, I just had a couple of clarifications. Just as far as 2017, the market share that you achieved in '17, it was approximately or is what? And then on your presentation for 2018, the $450 million of revenues that you plan, what market share will that be as well?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
So the market share in '17 was approximately 27%. The market share that we associate with the $450 million revenue model is about 32%.
David Duley - Managing Principal
Okay. And then can you give us an idea now, I think you've mentioned in the past, what percentage of systems shipment are Purion H?
Douglas A. Lawson - EVP of Corporate Marketing & Strategy
Well, we haven't given a percent, but we did say that the Q4 shipments were the highest quarter ever of shipments. As a matter of fact, in Q4, we shipped almost as many tools in Q4 as a rest of the whole first half of the year.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
For Purion H.
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
For Purion H, yes. But we don't give an exact percent. And then in Q1, there's still high number of Purion Hs in the mix sets, that's planned for Q1.
David Duley - Managing Principal
Okay. And then, could you give us an idea of where your current lead times are and have they expanded? And then the final question for me, Kevin, is could you just walk us through the P&L impact of bringing that, I think, $80-something million of deferred tax assets back onto the balance sheet? How is that going to impact the P&L statement going forward?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Yes, so in terms of lead times, our supply chain is still doing a great job keeping up with us. So our lead times typically on a ship-from-cell tool where we have a long lead material already driving and we keep a certain amount of long lead driving, we can turn a tool within a quarter because the factory cycle time is only about 4 weeks on a ship-from-cell. And the rest is really about getting material but with the long lead here all we have to do is get the short lead and most the material is 60 days or less.
And in terms of the impact from the valuation allowance that we reversed, so we now have an asset and in the press release, you can see on the balance sheet the asset that's there, we will use that asset going forward to offset any cash expense we have from taxes. So the new tax laws, the biggest impact to our company was pretty much a fact that we are a taxpayer now. We are in the 21% tax bracket. There's a lot of other things in there with toll taxes and beat taxes and stuff, but they really had minimal impact on our business.
So the biggest impact of that, Dave, going forward is that we have a fairly large deferred tax asset sitting on the balance sheet now for $81 million and some change. And for every dollar of taxes we have to pay, going forward, we will offset that. So we will be a noncash taxpayer for a good amount of time. Obviously, the better the business is, the faster we burn it up, but we will apply those going forward. The P&L will be impacted, right, we are going to have a tax expense on the P&L, but then we are going to turn around and it will be a noncash expense, because we'll offset it with that asset that we have, the deferred tax asset.
David Duley - Managing Principal
So will you be breaking out this impact going forward on a pro forma basis so we can kind of...
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
We will. Yes, so we tried to do that today. We said we had $0.10 of tax impact so pretty much what we're saying is we guided 34% to 37%, prior to the reversal we would've been guiding 44% to 47% but we've got this $0.10 of tax impact now. At the P&L level but again not at the cash level so.
David Duley - Managing Principal
And just a final clarification, you mentioned, you talked about cycle times in your factory and the lead times for a bunch of different things. But right now, if someone gives you an order, how many weeks is it before you deliver it?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Well, again, so we keep -- we have planning material bonds for long lead materials. So that's assuming long leads here and we have a good amount of long lead here, short lead material is all less than 60 days and our build time is 4 weeks on ship-from-cell. So at worst-case, it's 3 months, but it can be less than that. So it's very possible for us to turn tools within a quarter if get the order early in the quarter.
Operator
Our next question is from the line of Mark Miller of Benchmark.
Mark S. Miller - Research Analyst
Congratulations on the results. I had a question, you were talking about growing the upgrade business. And will that have a positive impact on GSS margins, and where are the margins relative for GSS relative to overall company margins?
Kevin J. Brewer - CFO and EVP of Global Operations
Mark, I mean the only thing we ever say is that the GSS margins are very accretive and the answer is, yes, the upgrades will grow those margins higher. If I look at the business, the upgrades are some of the higher margins, when you look at all the buckets within that side of the business between used tools, spare parts, consumables, service. So the upgrades are some of the higher gross margin pieces of that business.
Mark S. Miller - Research Analyst
Okay. Of the local Chinese manufacturers coming up this year, what percent of those will be just be in pilot production and going into real production ramp in 2019? What's your estimate -- how many will actually be in full production this year versus full production in 2019?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
I think most of them actually are starting up pilot lines. The tools that are getting shipped now are going into pilot lines. So it's going to take them a while to work out the kinks, especially given that some of them have actually developed the technology themselves. So there's a lot of work they have to do before they go into full production.
Mark S. Miller - Research Analyst
And then related to that, what do you think geographically will be your sales mix in 2018? Will it be similar to 2017 with Korea being 57% or 60% of it?
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
No. We expect that China will actually have the largest percentage of our business or be the largest percentage of our business in 2018. Korea will still be strong, but China should surpass it this year.
Operator
And at this time I'm showing no further questions. (Operator Instructions) And this does conclude today's Q&A portion of the call. I will now turn the call over to Ms. Mary Puma, who will make further closing remarks.
Mary G. Puma - CEO, President and Director
Thanks, Amanda. So we are looking forward to an exciting year for Axcelis and for the industry. As always, we want to thank you for your continued support and hope to see you in the coming months at one of several investor trips we have planned. Thank you very much.
Operator
This concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Good day.