Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) 2015 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Axcelis Technologies third quarter 2015 conference call. My name is Janine, and I will be your coordinator for today.

At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will be facilitating a question-and-answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions)

I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Mary Puma, President and CEO of Axcelis Technologies. Please proceed, ma'am.

Thank you, Janine. With me today is Kevin Brewer, Executive Vice President and CFO, and Doug Lawson, Executive Vice President of Corporate Marketing and Strategy.

If you have not seen a copy of our press release issued earlier today, it is available on our website. Playback service will also be available on our website as described in our press release.

Please note that comments made today about our expectations for future revenues, profits, and other results are forward-looking statements under the SEC Safe Harbor provision.

These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks inherent in our business. These risks are described in detail in our form 10K annual report and other SEC filings, which we urge you to review.

Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements.

Today Axcelis reported strong third-quarter financial results driven by continuing customer adoption of all three Purion products, and a solid contribution from GSS, along with tight control of expenses and improving systems gross margins.

Revenues of $79.3 million and earnings of $0.05 per share were at the high end up Company guidance and above analysts consensus estimates.

For the fourth consecutive quarter, systems revenue showed an even split between the memory and non-leading edge foundry and logic markets. The commonality of the Purion platform, combined with our innovative scanned spot beam, advanced energy filter, and Eterna ELS source, has enabled the Purion product family to rapidly gain market share in both of those segments.

Year to date, Purion systems have accounted for approximately 85% of our systems revenue. As a result of the rapid adoption of the Purion platform, we expect that Axcelis will exit 2015 with between 17% and 20% of the total ion implant market.

Turning to fourth-quarter guidance, we will be impacted in the near term by the recent spending slowdown in DRAM. As a result, a higher percentage of our Q4 revenue will come from the non-leading edge market where customers continue to adopt the Purion platform.

We expect fourth-quarter revenues of between $60 million and $65 million, gross margins of approximately 33% to 34%, operating profit of approximately $1 million, and EPS at breakeven. Our cash balance will be approximately $80 million.

While our guidance is down quarter over quarter, customer activity across our full quarter line remains very strong.

As we manage through this industry slowdown, I would like to highlight the significantly different and improved position Axcelis is in. We now have the full Purion product family in production at multiple customers, in multiple fabs, with two additional Purion H customers very close to volume production.

Our market share has increased significantly, highlighting the additional revenue opportunity available to us. The Internet of Things, image sensor, power device, and automotive markets continue to drive significant non-memory opportunity for Purion, as well as for our legacy tool business.

Our customer satisfaction level has been the highest in the industry for two consecutive years, and we have a strong balance sheet and a much lower cost structure.

Bottom line is that Axcelis is in a much stronger position, not just to weather the storm, but, more importantly, to enhance our position during the downturn and enter the next upturn with higher market share, a larger customer base, new product capabilities, and higher earnings potential.

Our accelerated market share growth in 2015 has been primarily driven by the fastest-growing new product in Axcelis' 38 year history. This product is the Purion H high current implanter, which is having great success in the memory market and also recently penetrated a non-leading edge foundry.

While the Purion H's success is critical to Axcelis as the high current market represents 60% of the implant TAM, all three Purion platform products have seen significant adoption during the year.

Two large memory customers have all three tools in production. The Purion XE is the industry standard for high energy. And the Purion M has seen increased adoption in image sensor and power device markets.

The non-leading edge foundry and logic market has also become a rapid adopter of the Purion platform. Customers focused on image sensors and power devices have chosen Purion XE and Purion M for high productivity and low metals contamination.

This is a very important market for Axcelis, one in which we will continue to invest.

As a result, we have recently announced an extended energy option for the Purion XE, specifically focused on this market. We have also announced additional capabilities in wafer substrate, size, and temperature control for the Purion platform, making it capable of handling 150 millimeter to 300 millimeter wafers and multiple substrates.

Orders for the Purion M with these capabilities were recently announced.

The Internet of Things continues to permeate society and will become one of the most pervasive data collection systems ever created. This means our IoT customers should continue to expand production capability throughout 2016, and likely beyond.

But the real winner of the Internet of Things build out will be our (inaudible - technical difficulty) storage, and analysis.

For the last decade, memory technology has been relatively stagnant and the supplier base has been consolidating. Recently that has changed.

The first new memory type in 15 years was introduced by Intel and Micron. Intel announced plans to reenter the memory production business. Western Digital announced plans to acquire SanDisk. And the Chinese government and investment community have also targeted entering the memory business.

It appears, based on recent activities, the memory market is switching from consolidation to an expansion phase. We believe this will result in a prolonged memory build cycle.

Memory process flows of all types are capital intensive for ion implantation. With our strong position in memory, a prolonged memory build will be positive for Axcelis and will drive market share.

Now I'd like to turn it over to Kevin to discuss our third-quarter financial results.

Thank you, Mary. Looking at our third-quarter results, revenue finished at $79.3 million, up from $78.4 million in Q2 and at the high end of our guidance.

System sales of $47 million, up 13% from Q2 sales of $41.6 million, with Purion accounting for approximately 80% of new system sales in quarter.

GSS revenue finished at $32.3 million, down 12.4% from $36.9 million in Q2 as a result of lower used tool sales.

Q3 sales to our top 10 customers accounted for about 83% of our total sales compared to 74% in Q2, with two of these customers at 10% or above.

Q3 system bookings were $24.4 million compared to $39.7 million in Q2, with a Q3 book-to-bill ratio of 0.5 versus 0.94 in Q2.

Backlog in the quarter finished at $37 million compared to $59.9 million in Q2.

Q3 combined SG&A and R&D spending finished at $21.5 million compared to our guidance of $20 million to $21 million.

Timing of variable compensation accruals contributed to highly higher than planned expenses. SG&A in the quarter was $12.9 million with R&D at $8.6 million.

We remain committed to holding operating expenses at low levels, and expect SG&A and R&D spending to be down $1.2 million to approximately $20.3 million in Q4.

Gross margins in Q3 finished at 36.8% and above our guidance, compared to 34.6% in Q2.

In the quarter, we continued to make steady progress on our Purion [cost-out] initiatives, and realized improvements on material, labor, and warranty costs.

Q4 gross margins will be in the 33% to 34% range, primarily due to a less favorable mix of systems revenue which includes some higher cost finished goods, including legacy Optima high current inventory.

We continue to execute on detailed margin improvement roadmaps and are on track to drive the business to greater than 40% gross margin, as highlighted in our target financial model.

Operating profit in Q3 was $7.7 million compared to $7.2 million in Q2.

Q3 net income was $6.1 million or $0.05 per share, at the high end of our guidance, compared to $5.9 million in Q2.

Q3 inventory ended down at $120.1 million compared to $122 million in Q2. We expect Q4 inventory to be flat to slightly down.

Q3 accounts payable were $24.4 million compared to $38.8 million in Q2, based on a timing and material input.

Q3 receivables are $38.7 million compared to $42 million in Q2, due to the timing of system shipments. Q3 cash and cash equivalents finished at $79.9 million or $0.66 per share, and within our guidance of approximately $80 million.

In the quarter, we generated cash from operations, bringing our cumulative year-to-date cash from operations to $12.4 million. We expect total Q4 cash to finish around $80 million.

Before I turn the call back to Mary, I'd like to update you on the $10 million line of credit that we put in place two years ago when our cash position was not as strong.

The line, which expired in October, was not renewed to eliminate unnecessary expense. We never borrowed against the line, and it was only used to secure letters of credit which will now be cash collateralized.

Our balance sheet remains strong and we are furthering strengthening our cash position throughout 2015. Now I'll turn the call back to Mary for closing comments.

Thank you, Kevin. Axcelis is well positioned as the industry slows in the near term. The full Purion product family is highly competitive and is rapidly increasing both its customer base and market share.

Axcelis has a diversified market position, with business split between memory and non-leading edge foundry and logic customers. We have two additional Purion H memory customers poised for volume production in the first half of 2016.

We have multiple new product offerings targeted at the non-leading edge foundry and logic markets. In addition we continue to work closely with our leading edge customers to demonstrate the Purion H scanned spot beam uniformity advantages that will improve FinFET yield.

Our margin improvement initiatives will yield solid earnings and cash generation as our revenues increase. And most importantly, we continue to have strong customer support. Our customers want [two] strong implant suppliers who will drive innovation and competition.

They like not only the advantages that Purion technology brings them, but also highly value our award-winning customer support.

We are very proud of how Axcelis has executed against 2015 plans. The rapid adoption of the Purion platform across multiple customers has strengthened Axcelis, allowing us to address the upcoming industry slowdown from a much stronger position.

As a result, Axcelis will enter the next upturn with higher market share, a larger customer base, new product capabilities, and higher earnings potential.

Axcelis is now positioned to be profitable throughout the cycle and remains on track to deliver the financial performance described in our target model.

We thank you for your continued support. And with that, I'd like to open it up for questions.

(Operator Instructions) Arthur Su with Needham and Company.

This is Arthur on behalf of Edwin. Congrats on a great quarter.

Thank you.

Thanks.

So our first question is regarding sort of the visibility you have into 2016, into the first half 2016. Know that you had guided revenues to be down next quarter.

But do you see any possibility that things could bounce back pretty quickly beginning 2016, or do you think that would take a little bit more time to return to above the $70 level?

Well, we're not giving guidance on 2016 at this point. But in terms of industry and market conditions, we expect that the market could continue to be in this slight downturn or pause, maybe for one to three quarters.

So that would take us through the first half of 2016, potentially. We do expect that the second half of 2016 should be stronger based on projects that we understand our customers are planning to make investments in.

Great. Thanks. That was very helpful. And then my follow-up question was on sort of your leading edge and non-leading-edge mix. I think you said this quarter was about evenly split between the two, and you expected higher non-leading edge in 4Q.

Can you provide a little bit more color on sort of what your expectations are if you think the high mix of non-leading edge is sustainable going forward?

Yes. So let me just make sure I correct what you said. The split was between memory and non-leading edge, not leading edge logic foundry. So it's the memory and the non-leading-edge.

We do expect in Q4, based on some bookings we have in hand right now, that most of -- that, actually, memory's only going to account for about 20%, potentially, of our shipments in the quarter, and the rest of it would be non-leading edge logic and foundry.

We do expect this segment to continue to be strong into 2016 and even potentially beyond that, based on a lot of the factors that we talked about tied into the Internet of Things, power devices, automotive, and a number of what we'll call specialty device segments.

So at this point in time, that's the visibility that we have.

But we do expect the memory market to come back next year. But as I said, it's likely to be potentially in the back half of 2016. And that's one of the factors that would increase potential growth in the second half of next year versus the first.

Great. Thanks for that clarification. And just one last question. How do you think about OpEx going forward? I think you said you had tried to keep the OpEx level down. Do you see room for further improvement as you start to reduce costs?

I think what we're saying right now is the $20 million to $21 million range is probably the appropriate range for us. Within Q3 we had a couple of accruals that came in a little bit earlier than we planned.

But the scenario we continue to focus on, I think you probably recall that you go back a few years and this was closer to $30 million. So we've taken it down considerably.

We're really keeping a close eye on the investments we need to make from an R&D point of view. But again, we're committed to hold this in line. And I don't see anything that's going to drive this up significantly from where it is.

Great. Thanks for that.

Jamison Phillips with B. Riley.

Jamison calling in for Craig. I guess my first question I have for you guys is, so looking out with the quarter, obviously, a little bit lower than I think we'd expected, and is this basically driven by lower expected Purion sales just in the quarter?

Well, yes. I mean, the real answer is it's driven by the DRAM pause, which I think is pretty consistent with what our peers and competitors are seeing as well.

Okay, great. And I guess to follow up on that. You are saying that you're expecting to end the year with a 17% to 20% market share.

Would this be a function of the total opportunity maybe decreasing a little bit as well as yourselves increasing? Or how do we think about it?

Yes. I mean, I think that that's fair, right, it's our sales over the total available market, with the market potentially contracting in the fourth quarter, the implant market.

We still see a clear path to the 17% to 20% based on the numbers.

Okay. And maybe that's looking closer to 900 as opposed to 950?

It's hard to say, Jamison, exactly where Gartner will exactly come out. But I think that kind of number is probably reasonable.

Okay, great. Thanks. I guess lastly, could you give us a little bit of color on the upside to your gross margin in this quarter? And why it's -- I understand it's going to be lower based on your mix. But if you could maybe give --

Yes. We had a very strong quarter in terms of our cost on initiatives on the Purion product. We've had very detailed margin improvement roadmaps in place which we're -- been following closely. And we made very solid progress there. And frankly, the uplift in the quarter came from the system side of the business.

So the next quarter, Q4, as I said, we have it's a little bit different mix. We also have some, what I would call higher dollar older inventory that we're moving out. And in particular, the Optima, that's our prior generation high current tool. So it's good from a cash point of view, but it will affect the gross margins a little bit.

Great. Thank you very much.

Patrick Ho with Stifel.

This is actually Brian calling in for Patrick. Thank you for taking my question. (Inaudible - technical difficulty)

I guess I'm not sure what the question is on that.

Well, I guess progress towards how does maybe a rougher start to 2016, perhaps with a pickup towards --

Oh, okay.

-- the second half second half? How would it impact maybe the 40% gross margin?

Yes. So as I said, on the gross margins, again, we have very detailed plans of what we need to accomplish, from material cost, labor, warranty. And we're continuing to make progress.

There is some component of volume in things. But based on what I'm looking at right now, I think we're going to stay right on plan to where we wanted to be.

And I would expect that, we've been talking about greater than 40% gross margins in our target model, which is longer-term, and we'll stay on this kind of a glide path to 40%.

There may be some quarters that get a little choppy. But that will not be coming from, what I would say a lack of performance. I'm hearing it may be more in line with some of the mix within the quarter.

But I think the important thing to remember is that we're making progress on Purion. Purion is our mainstream product now. And as long as we continue to do that, we're going to get to our target margins of greater than 40%.

Got it. And maybe I can throw one (inaudible - technical difficulty) to -- actually lost my train of thought there. But I appreciate -- sorry about that. I appreciate the time.

It's all right. Come back if you want --

Thank you.

-- if you remember.

David Duley with Steelhead.

Thanks for taking my question. You mentioned you had two 10% customers in the quarter. Could you just mention which segments that they were in?

Yes. One is memory and the other is logic, non-leading edge logic.

Okay. And you also mentioned that you have two new customers that are ready to ramp up on the Purion platform next year some time.

Could you talk about, as much as you can, which products will ramp with those customers? And is it one product or two product, for instance? And what you currently think about the timing?

I think they're two big memory customers. So maybe just talk about those projects and timing and which products you've penetrated there.

Yes. So the first project and the first customer we expect to see activity in the first quarter. That activity will be with Purion H, the high current tool. That customer is qualified with all three tools. This is a fab project that has been delayed a little bit. And so the high energy tools that they require are actually already on site.

The second customer is a NAND project. And that again is with Purion H, and that's targeted for the second quarter.

And when you speak about the downturn lasting into the first half of next year, is that mainly a reference to the DRAM customers? Or do you think that these two projects -- or maybe just talk about what you mean by that.

I think, Dave, I think the projects that we're discussing, we feel pretty confident are moving forward. And so the pause in the DRAM is probably largely being driven by one large customer that doesn't have a major project scheduled until the end of the year or first of 2017. And so that's creating a little bit of a gap there.

So we feel pretty good about the projects that we've discussed.

So to put words in your mouth, you [would still] expect these two new projects and customers to ramp up in Q1, Q2 timeframe, as I think has been --?

Yes.

Okay. And I think you mentioned it. But your market share goals for the year, 17% to 20%, and given your guidance for the fourth quarter, I think it's fair to assume that we will have a reduction in the overall market because of the activity in the fourth quarter.

Where do you think, if you could take a guess as to where it might come in this year? And do you think there's growth next year or will you be picking up share in 2016 in a flat environment?

It's hard to say exactly what the Dataquest or Gartner number will be. It's probably lower than the top of the range than 950, given that Q4 will be a little softer.

As far as next year, again, implant market share moves around -- or TAM moves around plus or minus a couple hundred thousand on a fairly regular basis, if you look over time.

So I think it's going to be flat, maybe down just a little bit. But we do believe we're going to gain share regardless. And still have target share goal of 20% to 30%.

Okay.

Dave, let me just add to that. I mean, just because things have slowed down a little bit, doesn't mean that the activity around the Purion penetrations has slowed down.

We are extremely busy from a sales perspective, applications perspective, running wafers here at Axcelis through our Advanced Technology Center.

I mean, things continue to be very busy. And you will see us make announcements on new customer penetrations even throughout this timeframe.

So again, while it's unfortunate that things have slowed down a little bit, that hasn't slowed our march towards our market share gain.

Okay. And I guess just to summarize, really, I guess the big change in what you've seen in the market is mainly with the thing DRAM customer and the other customers which is one of your big customers in the memory space.

But the other two customers that are supposed to join the party next year are still expected to do that in Q1 and Q2?

Yes, that's absolutely correct. And I think it's important to note, as you comment on that, Dave, that while we've had a bit of a DRAM pause, I think Mary's commentary on the script talking about the different position that Axcelis is in, those two points highlight that quite a bit.

Our market share's up. We've got a full product family. We've got multiple customers in the pipeline into next year, even if the year is a little softer than 2015 was. And we think that we're going to gain share during that as a result of that, and come out stronger with better profitability.

And as we move towards the second part of next year, we do expect the memory side to pick up again. And we do believe there's a fairly big and prolonged memory build on the horizon.

Okay. One other question from me. Kevin, I think that you had some evaluation systems out at one of your customers that I thought were going to come through at a lower gross margin target, yet your gross margins were better than expected this quarter.

Did those systems go through the P&L this quarter or have they been --?

No, we still haven't recognized those systems. It looks like right now it's going to be a Q1 event based on what I'm looking at.

And I guess what I would say, and particularly to one of the customers, is a situation where, as you know, they've been buying many, many tools from us. They continue to do R&D work on this tool. So we're just [ringing] out some additional capabilities for them.

But I would expect that Q1 would be the latest that these would convert. And there is also a possibility it could hit in Q4. But for planning, I would say Q1 right now.

Okay. And that's one of the reasons why the gross margins would be down sequentially?

Well, within Q4, it's really the one tool I highlighted, the old Optima tool, which is a high current tool, and there's some other, what I would call legacy higher dollar tools that we're moving out of WIP.

So those, I guess if those came in the quarter, it probably wouldn't change things all that much from where we are right now, what I guided. But there's a couple moving pieces. So there is, like I said, there is, right now I'm thinking more like these may hit in Q1.

Okay. Thank you.

Dave, what we'll do is, as we said before, when these things hit, we'll spike them out and we'll let you know what the impact of them is.

That would be very helpful.

Yes. Okay. Thank you.

Mark Miller with The Benchmark Company.

Congratulations on your upside earnings. Just was wondering about OpEx, because you had provided some targets fairly recently about $18 million combined R&D and SG&A. You seem to be running above that last quarter and also in the current quarter where sales are coming down.

Where can we think that's going to be going? Are you going to still adhere to those targets?

Well, I think we've been above $18 million all year long. And even in the investor pitch we had a graph in there that kind of showed with the target penetration appearing where the expenses would be based on new penetration.

So as I said earlier, I believe we're going to be in this $20 million to $21 million range based on what I can see right now.

And Mary's highlighted it and I think Doug has. We still have a lot of customer activity. And when you're running things through your demonstration facility and working with new customers, there's certain costs that come with that, but it's going to lead to increased sales down the road.

So yes, $18 million is not on my lips right now.

In terms of non-system margins, any latitude there to improve? How have they been trending recently?

Well, as we always mention, our GSS business is very accretive. And GSS is in the $30 million range a quarter. Last quarter it was $36 million. This quarter it was down from that.

I continue to believe those margins are going to be very accretive. It's good business. It's [your spares] and consumable business. It's upgrades. It's some used tools and then the service base.

So we continue to work on that, Mark. Obviously, we're not satisfied just because the gross margins are good there. We've got some strategic initiatives to try to win back some additional consumable business.

And also, we're going to add some small incremental spending that's not going to move the needle much on R&D side to get some high dollar upgrades design in some of these new tools.

So it is an area that we're focusing on, and there could be some small growth there. But it continues to be very good, that side of the business.

And then on the system side, we've been making quarter-over-quarter improvements all year long on the Purion. Again, I like to keep focusing on the Purion, because, frankly, everything else is a nonevent, it's a throwaway, frankly.

So the Purion's where we're focused. We're gaining market share. We're doing a really good job driving the cost out. And that's what's going to drive the business when you look down the road to the long-term target.

Then final question. Some people are terming the Crosspoint chip from Intel and Micron to be transformative in terms of memory.

Just wondering if you believe that. And if so, is that a greater opportunity or is that going to provide a challenge for you if that chip really comes on?

Well, if you look at what Intel said at their Data Center Analyst Day and you look at how data centers and what's going on with the cloud as a whole, it looks like that chip could very much be transformative to the industry.

As far as how it affects Axcelis at this point, we'll have to see how that plays out. One of the partners in that does have a Purion H. And so we'll see where it goes.

Well, if I could just slip one more in. Anything in terms of changing the landscape for you? Western Digital has an offer for SanDisk, makes them number two in solid-state storage. Could really start, I think the combination, personally, will be very positive for both firms.

How does that affect you, if it affects you at all?

I think at this point in time it doesn't really affect us very much. Because of SanDisk's relationship with the Japanese, it's an area where we have not -- and Japan is an area we haven't had strength in recent years.

I don't see any immediate impact. But certainly, it's an area where we have focused to move into regionally and through technology partners moving forward. So in the future potentially, it could be positive for us.

Thank you.

Patrick Ho with Stifel.

It's Brian again. I remembered my question. It was touched on a little bit a few questions ago. But the company is entering this slowdown with a strong balance sheet and improved position.

Can you talk about the opportunities you have to perhaps dedicate even more resources towards new strategic customers during this timeframe? Such as with that logic evaluation target you've mentioned on prior calls.

So I don't think, Brian -- I know, Brian, that resources that we had planned to dedicate to these new customers hasn't changed because of the downturn we're going into.

Kevin mentioned that we're managing our expenses very tightly. But we've also been very clear in saying that we believe we're making the appropriate investments in both R&D and SG&A that we need to grow the business.

So what's going on right now in the marketplace really isn't having an impact on what we're doing. We think we're spending adequate amounts to be able to win those customers over.

Okay, great. Thanks again for the time.

Edwin Mok with Needham and Company.

Sorry I call in late, but I caught some of the question. Probably in line with Brian and also the question before that. Regarding Japan, does it make sense for you guys to maybe have a more aggressive strategic move into targeting Japanese market, given the success of Purion products?

Yes. Well, we are. We have a number of initiatives ongoing right now to enter the Japanese market. One of the areas of particular interest for us is bringing the Purion XE and even the newer higher energy, high energy tool that we announced, it's called the Purion VXE, into the Japanese market.

These tools are particularly good for image sensors. And there is a very large market in Japan for image sensors.

So, yes, to answer your question, it does make sense to be more aggressive about entering those markets. And, yes, we are actively pursuing, improving our presence there, increasing our presence there so that we can capture some of that business.

Okay, that's helpful. And then based on some of the success you have with Purion with the (inaudible) customer and especially with the ones that kind of (inaudible) Purion H, right.

Do you guys believe you have kind of a technical advantage that works well in the logical environment that mostly it'll be on the Purion -- it was mostly target on memory side and the applications?

Yes. No, we believe that the scanned spot beam offers significant uniformity advantages for the industry as a whole. But especially for many of the device structures that are involved with advanced logic.

So any high aspect ratio structures and so forth are things that we feel the scanned spot beam will bring tremendous advantage to the customers.

Okay, great. That's all I have. Thank you.

David Duley with Steelhead.

Yes, a quick follow-up from me. You have published a target model, I think it's $80 million to $100 million per quarter or something like that.

And is that model still relevant when the DRAM spending comes back, i.e., in the second half of next year or whenever you think -- well, when will that model be relevant again?

Well, I think the model is relevant because it's a target. So it's not that it's disappeared. Obviously, when pieces of the industry slow down, it's going to impact our revenues and our ability to or the timing on when we get there.

But it's absolutely relevant. And when we start to hit on all cylinders that we've talked about in terms of strengths and customer mix, it's absolutely something that we can hit.

And I don't want to lose sight of the longer-term quarterly business model as well. Kevin's talked about -- well, we've talked about market share and how our target is still to get around 40% market share in that model. Kevin's talked about the gross margins, we're on track to meet that.

So all the pieces are in place. We just need to just keep pushing ahead. And then I think the only question at this point in time is timing just based on the market.

So the model's still very much alive, you just need the DRAM [guy] to come back?

Yes. I think, Dave --

Yes.

-- we still feel that we'll get 20% to 30% share in 2016. And so depending on what the TAM of 2016 looks like will depend on -- will determine what those exact revenues are.

Excellent. Thank you.

You have no questions at this time. (Operator Instructions) And this concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I will now turn the call back over to Mary Puma who will make a few closing remarks.

So we will be attending the UBS Global Technology Conference November 18th, in San Francisco, the Fourth Annual Midtown Cap Investor Summit in New York City on December 10th, and the 18th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York City from January 12th through the 14th. We will also be on the road during the upcoming months and we look forward to catching up with all of you. Thank you.

This concludes the presentation. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. You may now disconnect. Good day.