Axcelis Technologies Inc (ACLS) 2007 Q1 法說會逐字稿

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  • Operator

  • Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Axcelis first quarter of 2007 earnings release conference call. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Later we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will follow at that time. (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) For opening remarks and introductions, I'd like to turn the call over to Ms. Maureen Hart, Vice President of Corporate Communications. Please go ahead, ma'am.

  • - VP of Corporate Communications

  • Good afternoon. This is Maureen Hart, Vice President of Corporate Communications for Axcelis Technologies. Welcome to our conference call to discuss our results for the first quarter of 2007. If you have not received a copy of our press release issued earlier this afternoon, it is available on our website. Discussing our results today are Mary Puma, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Stephen Bassett, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Mark Namaroff, our Senior Vice President of Strategic Marketing. After the prepared remarks, there will be time for questions. Playback service will be available on our website as described in our press release.

  • Please note that comments made today about our expectations for future revenues, profits, and other achievements are forward-looking statements under the SEC Safe Harbor Provisions. These forward-looking statements are based on management 's current expectations and are subject to risks inherent in our business. These risks are described in detail in our Form 10K Annual Report and other SEC filings which we urge you to review. Our actual results may differ materially from our current expectations. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Steve.

  • - EVP, CFO

  • Thank you, Maureen. Overall, our operating results for the first quarter were in line with our expectations. We reported net income of $2.7 million or $0.03 per share on revenues of 98 million. Revenues from systems sales came in at approximately 51 million, in line with our projections. From a product perspective, our implant business accounted for 71% of total shipments. Our service business, which includes product upgrades, again showed strong performance with revenues of 44 million. Service operations continued to represent an opportunity for growth and increased profitability as overall service margins are accretive. Gross margins at 42.3% were as forecast and generally what we expect at these revenue levels.

  • Following a very strong fourth quarter of 2006, systems orders came in at 55 million. I should remind you that Axcelis's systems orders under state our current level of business. We have a significant number of additional tools which will not be counted as bookings until their evaluation periods are complete. Based on the geographic location of the FAB, Asia accounted for 58% of systems orders with 22% coming from the U.S. and 20% from Europe. Memory manufacturers accounted for 63% of new systems bookings with Logic at 24% and Foundrys at 13%. R&D spending and SG&A expenses for the quarter were approximately 42 million, in line with our expectations. The contribution from SEN for the quarter consisted of 2.1 million in royalties and 4.7 million of equity income, representing Axcelis's 50% share of its net earnings. SEN's income for the quarter was slightly lower than originally forecast as a result of the acceptance of one tool moving into Q2. This affected Axcelis earnings for the quarter by about $0.01 per share.

  • SEN Corporation and SHI and Axcelis Company is our 50% owned joint venture in Japan. Cash flow in Q1 was impacted by the repayment of $74 million of long-term debt. Operating cash flow for the quarter was negative due to increased investment in inventory to support the Optima platform and several large annual payment obligations that become due in the first quarter. We are projecting cash flow from operations to be positive for the year. Locking forward to the second quarter, revenues are projected to be in the range of 108 to 118 million. The projected revenues from Q2 do not include any Optima revenue. Gross margins for the quarter are expected to remain in the low 40s. Operating expenses are forecast to increase approximately 1 million over Q1 levels, most of the increase is attributable to field support for Optima HD evaluation tools. SEN's total contribution, including royalties and Axcelis' s share of net earnings is expected in the range of 4 to 6 million, of which about one third will be from royalties. And earnings for the second quarter are projected at $0.03 to $0.07 per share.

  • Before I turn the call over to Mary, I want to update you on Axcelis's outlook for the remainder of 2007. At the end of last quarter we said that we expected to see significant revenue gains in 2007 driven by the success of the Optima platform, both the Optima HD, and MD. Along with most of the industry, we are seeing some signs of a softening of the overall market. We believe that as a result of this, our base business revenues may not meet the expectations we had at the beginning of the year; however, even though the overall marketing market is softening, the Optima HD is gaining significant traction. We have approximately $60 million of Optima platform business for which we have yet to recognize revenue. This represents products that have shipped and are in various stages of evaluation awaiting acceptance, and orders in the backlog that will ship over the next several months. Most of this 60 million will be recognized as revenue in the second half of the year so we remain very much on track to meet the financial goals associated with our Optima products.

  • We are very up beat about the traction we're gaining with the Optima HD. This, combined with our service business, our base business products, and SEN's dominant leadership position in implant in Japan positions us well to continue to grow both revenues and earnings when market conditions pick up. I will now turn the call over to Mary.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Thanks, Steve, and thank all of you for joining us. Let me take a few minutes to review our progress against the goals that we have outlined for Axcelis this year. As you recall, we've been saying that our story is not an industry story but an Axcelis-specific story. For those of you who may be new to Axcelis, let me tell you what we mean by that. Any investor in our space knows the historical cyclicality of our industry. It has been a fact of life. Typically, semiconductor equipment companies results fluctuate with the ups and downs of the industry. Axcelis is no different.

  • This year, market forecasters predict that the industry will be flat to slightly down, and Axcelis agrees with this assessment of the market environment, but what we don't agree with is that our revenues will be a reflection of industry trends. What is different for Axcelis this year is that we are in the early stages of rolling out a competitive product in the high dose ion implant segment. Axcelis's penetration with its Optima HD family of products is going to produce a different trend for Axcelis in the near-term, as the demand curve for our solution is steep. We believe the second half of 2007 will be very exciting for Axcelis. During this time frame, we expect to see a significant pick up in Optima shipments and revenues. The facts supporting this growth speak for themselves. As Steve said, we currently have approximately $60 million of Optima platform business both Optima HD and Optima MD for which we have yet to recognize revenue, and we're continuing to gain momentum with the Optima HD.

  • During the quarter, new design wins and follow-on orders accelerated as leading chipmakers made new technology decisions and added capacity. We forecast Optima HD business to grow at an increasing rate throughout 2007, as strong demo activity and customer interest translate into additional orders and shipments. We are well on our way and our ongoing interactions with customers only increase our confidence that we will meet our objectives. We are also confident that the Optima platform and the Optima HD in particular combined with SEN's success in Japan will allow Axcelis to successfully regain implant leadership. As we have discussed, our penetration plan has several phases. The first wave of customers, which mainly consists of memory manufacturers, comprises the foundation needed for much of the growth that we expect in 2007. Axcelis has successfully executed against this wave. We have secured orders from or are actively engaging with all key memory customers. The second wave consists of Logic and Foundry manufacturers. We have also received orders from these types of customers and their interest level is very high as they see process performance advantages with the Optima HD tools. We believe that our success will stem from winning business across all three segments of customers around the world, including Japan.

  • Let's talk a bit more about the excellent progress we have made with the first wave of customers, the memory manufacturers, for standard Optima HD and Optima HD Imax tools. Optima HD tools have been fully qualified for production at a leading memory customer in Asia. This customer is currently running production wafers on multiple Optima HD's. These tools are performing very well and are delivering excellent process results. The Optima HD's are processing thousands of wafers per day in this customer FAB and more wafers are being allocated to the Optima HD's every day. Axcelis expects the Optima HD to proliferate further at this customer throughout the year based on its superior process performance and higher productivity which translates into a lower cost of ownership. Interest in the Optima HD Imax also continues to grow for demanding low energy high dose implant requirements. Some customers are exploring the use of plasma emersion to address these requirements. All of these customers tell us that they have serious concerns about the competitors plasma emersion technology. These concerns as a lack of repeatability and poor process control and the need for additional process steps required both before and after implant in order to integrate this technology into production.

  • Attraction to the Optima HD Imax stems from incorporating leading edge molecular implant technology into the tools traditional implant architecture. This new technology allows the Optima HD Imax to run lower energies at higher throughputs compared with conventional implanter. This satisfies our customers desire to lower risk and reduce overall cost of ownership for demanding dual poly-gate doping applications. We have two Optima HD Imax tools in the field at different customers with orders to ship several more. These tools are currently under evaluation. It is important to understand that our Optima HD Imax implanters have been in the field for only several months versus several years for competitors plasma emersion tools. In a few short months, however, we have made significant progress. Receiving customer confirmation that the Optima HD Imax delivers superior process performance results. As customers work with the Optima HD Imax and become more familiar with the benefit it offers, we fully expect these tools to be qualified for production. We will be very well positioned with the Optima HD Imax for the next round of technology and capacity buys for dual poly-gate implants. Many customers have also said that the flexibility associated with the Optima HD Imax's ability to address not only dual poly-gate applications but also multiple low energy implants for Memory and Logic is an important consideration for the future extendibility of this technology. Competing technology like plasma emersion has a limited field of use since it is only marginally suitable for dual poly-gate implants and is not a candidate for other emerging high dose processes. This has fueled interest in our Optima HD Imax not only from memory manufacturers but also from Logic and Foundry manufacturers, and as I explained earlier, our order book reflects that we are already making progress with the second wave of customers.

  • Before I wrap up, I want to mention the progress that we are making on several other fronts. In particular, in single wafer high energy and in dry strip. Axcelis continues to enjoy market leadership in the high energy implant segment as it has for over ten years. Customers are very satisfied with our multi-wafer high energy tools reflecting absence of any immediate process imperative for single wafer high energy. However, we expect the introduction of the Optima HD later this year will initiate a transition for some of our customers from Axcelis's market leading multi-wafer high energy implanter to our single wafer high energy offering.

  • Turning to dry strip, 2006 was a very good year for Axcelis. In 2006, we had a 126% increase in dry strip system revenues, the largest increase among our competitors. We expect our momentum to continue as our customers add capacity. Further growth will be driven by the superior process performance we are achieving on both our radiant strip and rapid strip platforms with customers for 45 nanometer critical cleans, and we have other exciting new developments in the dry strip pipeline which we will talk more about in the coming months. In closing, 2007 is an inflection year for Axcelis. We have said that this is the year of the Optima HD. There is clearly a product pull from customers for the Optima HD and Optima HD Imax for both technical and commercial reasons. All major customers are sending a strong message, especially with the applied, with applied materials exit from the implant business that they are relying on Axcelis to maintain competition in the high dose segment. Axcelis is fulfilling this expectation with the Optima HD's innovative technology that provides superior process performance and improved productivity and yield. Every day, the Optima HD gains traction and validates that it is fast becoming customers high dose implanter of choice. Thank you for your support as we continue to grow our business, execute against our product development, and deliver a strong value proposition for our shareholders. I'll open it up now for questions.

  • Operator

  • (OPERATOR INSTRUCTIONS) . First we'll hear from Satya Kumar of Credit

  • - Analyst

  • Yes, hi. Thanks for taking my question. Mary, in the last couple of months, since the- (inaudible), has any customer who you are not current a PTOR with like the major micro processor companies or the Foundrys approached you guys and are you working with any of these customers whom you have not worked within the past?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes and I think you're referring perhaps to applied materials customers. We think applied exiting the business is very positive for Axcelis. All of AMAS existing customers have already engaged with us. They have reviewed our product plans and expressed an interest in qualifying the Optima HD, so we believe that this creates a significant opportunity for growth in the future.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, and talking about the '07 revenues, it seems like you're talking down your expectations for '07. If I recall in the last quarter you talked about 10 to 20% revenue growth in '07. Are you able to quantify where things might end up for you guys this year and also, on the market share front, could you share with us what your current thinking is on overall implant market share for you guys and also in the (inaudible) segment?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, in terms of the overall market conditions, like the rest of the industry, we're seeing some softening of the business; however, we're not able to estimate at this point in time what effect it will have on our business. Visibility is not good right now, and the important thing to remember is that we still expect growth primarily fueled by penetrations of the Optima HD. So that's where we are at this point in time in terms of where we're going for the year. In terms of market share, with recent changes in market competition, we've actually increased the goal that we have for leadership in implant, and while we probably won't achieve that goal this year, we are achieving measurable success with the Optima HD. We think it clearly offers customers compelling productivity and process advantages and we're seeing strong traction with the customer bases as we just mentioned, so this success the customer bases as we just mentioned, so this success makes us very confident that we will be able to achieve our market share goals in the future.

  • - Analyst

  • Could you talk about 60 million in your Optima revenues that will flow through into the back half of the year and in addition to that, you should be having some just shipments that are happening in normal course of business. If you can get 15-20%, is the reasonable to think that a 5 -10% revenue growth is within the normal possibility for you guys this year?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • We don't at this point in time, Satya, want to give a quantifiable estimate of what the growth is. We're confident that we will have growth. It's going to be driven by the Optima HD, but Mary just said that we don't have good visibility into the second half of the year, so we just don't have a basis for providing a quantifiable estimate at this time.

  • - Analyst

  • Understood. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Next we'll hear from Jim Covello of Goldman Sachs.

  • - Analyst

  • Good evening, guys. Thanks for taking my question. The question is, what's going to be the best way that we're going to be able to gauge the market share gains versus the market decline? When I say that, I mean let's think about a scenario where the memory market really falls off in a market where the memory customers are kind of freezing their new orders. What's going to be the way that we'll be able to determine if you really are getting market share because in an industry downturn customers tent to scale back on any new orders even if you are getting share.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, Jim, we've talked about how we're going to continue to announce when we get additional orders whether they are repeat orders from customers or whether they are new designs ends at new customers so I think that's probably the best way to gauge our progress. Even if this year is somewhat soft, customers are very willing to take a look at new tools where they see process advantages as well as commercial advantages, and that's what we're finding with the Optima HD. So every time we get a new design in penetration, even if it's not going to lead to significant capacity in 2007, it's clearly going to lead to additional orders in revenues in future years when that buying turns on.

  • - Analyst

  • That's helpful. Can we get kind of a mark-to-market on how many new announcements we should expect both new design wins and then follow-on shipments from now until the end of the year so we can kind of track that even in the context of a softer market?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • At this point in time, Jim, we're not going to give a specific number. One of the things we have said is that we essentially have made progress and and won design ins at all of the customers that we essentially need to get us where we expect to be by the end of the year, so again, we feel very good about where we are. It's just not possible at this point in time given all of the sort of the churn in the market to give you specific numbers.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, and then one last question from me. The customers that are pushing out are expressing software indications, what exactly are they saying and what are they telling you is going to be the driver of the next round of decisions for them?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, I think what we're seeing is very much what the rest of the industry and the rest of the market is seeing in terms of softening. We see some churn in the memory segment where there is some slowing from the second tier memory customers. We haven't seen the Foundry spending turn on in any significant way, and we see softness from some Logic customers who have slowed their projects so I don't think that we're seeing anything that anybody else isn't seeing. I guess perhaps it's an inventory correction that we're going to need to look for in terms of perhaps some of the spending, turning back on, but again I want to emphasize that there is technology buying going on and that the Optima HD is clearly a tool that falls into that category which is why we're getting quite a bit of attention and we are getting the penetrations that we're seeing now and we expect to get through the end of the year.

  • - Analyst

  • Great. Thanks so much.

  • Operator

  • Next we'll hear from Robert Maire of Needham & Company.

  • - Analyst

  • Good evening. Could you tell us how many decisions where you are now the process tool of record with the Optima product versus entrenched competitors? Not just selected but actually the lead tool at a FAB?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, we're process tool of of record at a major memory manufacturer in Asia. I think what we're probably going to see, Robert, is the Optima HD gains acceptance. We're probably going to see a split between business with ourselves and a competitor, and then as we move forward into the future, it is very likely that you will see some customers flipping over and transitioning to the Optima HD alone, so that's probably the best way to describe the transition at this point in time.

  • - Analyst

  • So you don't, you can't tell us what, if any, where the Optima is the primary implanter?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, I don't know that there's necessarily a primary or a secondary implanter. I mean, our tools are in production at these fabs and as our volume grows, perhaps you could say then based on volume that there were primary process tool of record but it's quite common at many customers to have more than one tool set actually qualified for production.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay well I'm just trying to drill down and understand because everybody will claim to have a customer and get exactly who has the customer. A second question, Varian when they announced last week, they thought they were going to win the majority of the 200 million or so that Applied has left on the table here, could you give us your view as to what percentage you think that you could capture out of that and how you see that evolving over time?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well there's no reason we can't capture 100% of that over time and as I said we're engaged with all of Applieds implant customers and we will continue to work with them and penetrate those accounts and win that business. Again, over time.

  • - Analyst

  • Have you placed any tools or taken any orders from any of those accounts to amount?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • We're in the process of working with those customers to do that today.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, so but nothing to report as of today?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • No.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Operator

  • Our next question comes from Peter Kim with Deutsche Bank.

  • - Analyst

  • Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I have a few short ones. On the Optima HD that you expect in second half of '07, do you have a gross margin estimate for that? Do you think that gross margin will be comparable to your current system gross margins?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • No, Peter. We expect, and I think we said at the end of last quarter, that the new product introductions initially in the revenue that we recognize from new products in the second half of the year will put some pressure on our margins. We do expect by the time we get to the end of the year that the tools that we're shipping will actually be accretive to our overall margins, and for the year as a whole, we've estimated that our gross margins will remain in the low 40s.. We will be able to maintain the margins in the low 40s but we're not going to see margin improvement on the new tools until we get later into the year.

  • - Analyst

  • So as you start recognizing these systems revenues, you expect to see some margin pressure when that happens, some time in the second half maybe Q3 or Q4?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • Yes.

  • - Analyst

  • Your gross margin forecast. I mean, in the past you have given a more specific gross margin forecast and you said now you think it's going to be in the low 40% range and your revenues actually increasing. Do you expect your gross margins to decline on this increased revenues?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • Not in any significant way. The mix of shift of one tool can affect the margins by a few tenths of a point, so they are going to be about the same as what we saw in Q1.

  • - Analyst

  • And lastly, with respect to your improvements in the dry strip, the data numbers suggest that you've had some upside on the dry strip from some of your U.S. customers. I was wondering, do you have an idea about what you expect in terms of the mix of implants versus strip for the full year 2007? I mean, that's asking a lot but I think that given the strong progress that you've made in dry strip, you might have a pretty good idea on that.

  • - EVP, CFO

  • I don't think we're going to see a significant shift. The implant, our implant business should grow in 2007. Our implant business has constituted 70 to 75% of our total business and I think is going to remain in that range.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, and lastly, I'm sorry, but one last question regarding SEN. Your SEN contribution next quarter looks a little light. Is SEN business in Japan contracting right now and also if you could provide SEN's bookings and revenue forecast, it would be great.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, I think like the rest of the market, Japan is clearly seeing some softening in demand and this could have an effect on SEN's base business, but it should not impact SEN's penetration into the Japanese high current market with the SHX or Axcelis's penetration into the Japanese market with the Optima HD.

  • - Analyst

  • I'm sorry, did you say that Optima HD is going to be penetrating into Japan?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes.

  • - Analyst

  • I thought you guys were separate, that you would not participate in Japan?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, for the time being, Axcelis is pursuing a two prong strategy in Japan. Axcelis believes that SEN's medium current and high current single wafer offerings, the MC-three and SHX are successfully winning single wafer implants orders in Japan but some Japanese customers have expressed to Axcelis their interest in understanding the capability of the Optima HD and the Optima HD Imax so until these products are licensed to SEN, Axcelis is engaging directly with Japanese customers to sell those products into Japan.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, thank you.

  • Operator

  • We'll move on to Mark Fitzgerald of Banc of America.

  • - Analyst

  • Great. I was wondering if you could give us an update on the number of HD's that you expect to ship and have installed by the end of the year.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Mark, we're not going to do that. We don't have an estimate on the numbers, as I mentioned before, we expect to get a significant number of design-in penetrations, and from a capacity buying standpoint, a lot of that is going to be a function of the market and we said that visibility at this point in time is not as good as we would like it to be, so we're just, we're not comfortable giving a number but I've also mentioned that we already have won business at all of the customers we need to meet our expectations for 2007 for the Optima HD, so we're very comfortable that we're going to get to where we need to get but it's very difficult to put an actual number on that.

  • - Analyst

  • And then on the 60 million that you plan to get in terms of revenue recognition here, how many customers are we talking about at this point?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • That would be seven customers. Eight customers I'm sorry. That's 60 billion is across eight customers.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, and then with the Applied exiting can we take it in terms of what you're telling us at this point is the Optima is going to pick up in terms of expectations versus what you had maybe two or three months ago before Applied exited the market?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • No. Our plans have always been very consistent in terms of where we've been going with the Optima HD. I do think that perhaps the sense of urgency on the part of some of those customers has increased since Applied made its announcement, but we have been making pretty steady progress with a number of those customers even prior to that announcement.

  • - Analyst

  • Just one final question here. Is your guidance on OpEx expense, can we assume as you install more of these things or ship more of these that OpEx is going to trend up through the course of the year? Is that a fair assumption?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • We're seeing some slight increase in OpEx this quarter and we'll probably stay at those levels for the rest of the year. It won't be up significantly in the back half of the year. As the tools get accepted and they start to run, we're able to move those costs to the new evaluation tools.

  • - Analyst

  • Thank you.

  • Operator

  • We'll move on to Matt Petkun of D.A. Davidson & Company.

  • - Analyst

  • Hi. Good afternoon. First of all, last quarter, you had given us a couple of specific numbers on the Q4 call saying that you had received eight orders and made four shipments of the Optima HD. Can you update those numbers for us, especially given the flurry of press releases you've given on that product?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Yes. On the Optima HD's we've shipped a total of seven systems. We have 12 strategic design-in wins or orders at six customers.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. And that's most of, that and then the few orders or not orders but maybe LOA's or what you get to to the 60 million number you're referring to?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, those 12 orders are definitely in that along with business that we have for Optima MD as well.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay that's right. And then, Mary, I apologize but I'm having a little bit of a challenge with the comment you made a couple of types earlier saying that you've won design-ins at all of the customers that you expect that you need to get to where you want to be by the end of the year, but you're not telling us where you think you'll be by the end of the year, so I need a little bit more clarity on what you mean by that.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • Well, we have internal targets in terms of where we expect we'll be by the end of the year and we're feeling very comfortable based on the customer design-ins that we have and specific customer plans that each one of those customers has for additional design ins and capacity throughout the remainder of the year.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay and is that target more of a market share target or a specific revenue target internally?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • It's a shipment target and it's a revenue target.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. And then my final question, I was just wondering, and maybe this is wishful thinking, with the exit of Applied, is there any reason and it may not have happened yet, for us to expect an improvement in overall industry pricing and gross margins?

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • I can't think of any reason. There's still competition out there between several implant competitors, so at this point in time, pricing is competitive and we do think that the Optima HD for example, brings value to our customers so we're very confident about the pricing that we will be able to get for that tool.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks so much.

  • - Chairman, President, CEO

  • We only have time for one more call, and then we're going to basically end the call, but we'll be around afterwards in case anybody has any additional questions.

  • Operator

  • We'll take our final question from Timothy Arcuri of Citigroup.

  • - Analyst

  • Thanks. A couple things. First of all, Steve, I know you don't want to give a full year number, but if I just, if we said that there's no Optima's in revenue in June and I kind of looked back at what you've done on average trailing four quarters, you're kind of 115 seems to be about an average kind of baseline for the business, so if I take 115 and kind of flatline that and then I take what you did in Q1 and I add 60 to it, you'd grow about 8-9% this year, so it seems like do you find a flaw in that math? Seems like you'll be a little below what you said before but barring a dramatic deterioration in that core business you'd grow, is that about right?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • I'm not going to quantify your growth. I think that base business will fluctuate with the overall market, and we're going to have growth at an upside from the Optima revenues that we're going to recognize in the second half of the year, and I don't think that the growth that we're anticipating with respect to the Optima revenues has actually changed from what we anticipated when we entered the year.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. What, so if you look at the inventory numbers, so I look at the $174 million in inventory, it looks to me like I look back a couple years ago when you were doing a similar number before the Optima came to be and it looks like maybe the normalized inventory level is maybe 115 million so is it fair to say that maybe kind of 60 million of that number, of that 174 is related to Optima, so it's Optima valued at COGS ?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • Most of the inventory increase that we've seen since the end of 2005, Tim, is related to the Optima platform. That's the investment that we've made. That's parts that we have procured for assembly of tools, tools that are sitting on the floor assembled and evaluation tools that are actually in the field, and with respect to the inventory level, I don't think that you'll see significant decline in that until we get into the fourth quarter of this year.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. That helps. And then with respect to the guidance, I'm having a little bit, I mean we could probably do this off line but I'm having a little bit of a tough time getting down to what your earnings guidance is. You said that gross margin would be kind of flat sequentially, OpEx is up a million, equity income is about three from SEN. What's the other income line maybe that's where the difference is.

  • - EVP, CFO

  • No, there's no difference. There isn't any remarkable difference in other income or I would have provided that guidance. Tim, if you call me, I can discuss the details with you.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay, and then just lastly, Steve, I have in my notes that you guys were targeting 35 HD's shipping in 2007. Is that, I mean, it sounds, you're kind of, if I look at the shipment number and I look at the order number, you're not that close to that number, so was that the wrong number to begin with?

  • - EVP, CFO

  • Well, no. I don't think that actually, there's not a right or a wrong number. I think that last year in the middle of the year we had estimates of where we were going to be with the program. I think that we continue to revise those estimates. 35 tools is, it would be a lot for 2007, but as Mary said, we've got some good feedback now that as we get into through 2007 and into 2008, we can still execute our plans to really regain the market share that we lost in 2005. So we're not backing off any of our plans. They may push out a quarter or a half a year but we're really making traction now, good traction.

  • - Analyst

  • Okay. Thanks.

  • Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation and have a great day. Thank you.