Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLO) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Q3 2024 Arch Capital Earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 2024 年第三季 Arch Capital 收益電話會議。（操作員說明）謹此提醒，本次電話會議正在錄音。

Before the company gets started with its update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties.

在公司開始更新之前，管理層首先想提醒大家，今天的新聞稿中以及本次電話會議中討論的某些陳述可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性陳述。這些陳述是基於管理層目前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。

Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review the periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the 2023 fiscal year.

因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果有重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向 SEC 提交的定期報告，包括我們 2023 財年的 10-K 表格年度報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created thereby.

此外，電話會議中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述屬於 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。該公司希望電話會議中的前瞻性陳述受到由此創建的安全港的約束。

Management will also make references to certain non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliations to GAAP for each non-GAAP financial measure can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website at www.archgroup.com and on the SEC's website at www.sec.gov.

管理階層也會參考某些非公認會計準則財務績效指標。每項非 GAAP 財務指標的 GAAP 調整表可在該公司昨天向 SEC 提交的 8-K 表格當前報告中找到，其中包含該公司的盈利新聞稿，可在該公司網站 www.archgroup.com 上查閱以及SEC 網站www.sec.gov。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo, and Mr. François Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

現在我想介紹今天會議的主持人尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生和弗朗索瓦‧莫蘭先生。先生們，你們可以開始了。

Good morning, and welcome to our third quarter earnings call. I'd like to begin by wishing the best to my friend and my business partners of 23 years, Marc Grandisson, who retired earlier this month, after the fantastic run under Marc's leadership. While we will miss him, I'm very excited about the opportunities before us.

早上好，歡迎參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。首先，我謹向我的朋友和23 年的商業夥伴馬克·格蘭迪森(Marc Grandisson) 致以最美好的祝愿，他在Marc 的領導下取得了出色的業績，於本月早些時候退休。雖然我們會想念他，但我對我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。

My message to our shareholders, employees, brokers, clients, and business partners is that it is business as usual at Arch. Our core objective remains unchanged: to be the best-in-class specialty lines insurer in the market. We will continue to execute on the key pillars of our strategy, which are: build a diversified mix of businesses, actively manage the underwriting cycle, remain prudent stewards of capital, be dynamic managers of a data-driven enterprise, and foster a culture that attracts best-in-class talent.

我向我們的股東、員工、經紀人、客戶和業務夥伴傳達的訊息是，Arch 一切照舊。我們的核心目標保持不變：成為市場上一流的專業保險公司。我們將繼續執行我們策略的關鍵支柱，即：建立多元化的業務組合，積極管理承保週期，保持審慎的資本管理者，成為數據驅動型企業的動態管理者，並培養一種文化吸引一流的人才。

Back to the quarter, where Arch generated strong top and bottom line results with an annualized operating return on equity of 14.8% and an 8.1% increase in book value per share. Our third quarter results included $450 million of cat losses across multiple levels, including Hurricane Helene. It's worth noting that this cat loss is within our third quarter seasonally adjusted cat load. Overall, the P&C environment remains very favorable despite increasing competition in many lines of business, making underwriting and risk mitigation increasingly important. Our underwriting strategies empower our businesses to respond quickly to their trading environment. This has been and remains a competitive advantage as we pursue those opportunities with the best risk-adjusted return. Industry cat losses have once again exceeded $100 billion for the third quarter. This should continue to support increasing demand for property insurance and reinsurance. Even with this increased cat activity, we believe the property market remains attractive, and one in which disciplined underwriters can produce attractive return on capital. Casualty rates continue to outpace trend, which is consistent with our hypothesis of a hardening casualty market. We have selectively increased our casualty writing in both insurance and reinsurance as the markets respond to claims inflation and uncertainty around loss trend with higher prices.

回到本季度，Arch 取得了強勁的營收和淨利潤業績，年化營運股本回報率為 14.8%，每股帳面價值成長 8.1%。我們第三季的業績包括多個層面的 4.5 億美元貓損失，其中包括颶風海倫。值得注意的是，這種貓的損失是在我們第三季度季節性調整後的貓負荷範圍內的。總體而言，儘管許多業務領域的競爭日益激烈，但財產險環境仍然非常有利，這使得承保和風險緩解變得越來越重要。我們的承保策略使我們的企業能夠快速回應其交易環境。當我們追求那些具有最佳風險調整回報的機會時，這一直是並且仍然是一種競爭優勢。第三季產業巨災損失再次超過1000億美元。這將繼續支持財產保險和再保險不斷增長的需求。即使巨災活動增加，我們相信房地產市場仍然具有吸引力，而且紀律嚴明的承銷商可以產生有吸引力的資本回報。傷亡率持續超過趨勢，這與我們對傷亡市場硬化的假設是一致的。隨著市場以更高的價格應對索賠通膨和損失趨勢的不確定性，我們有選擇地增加了保險和再保險的傷亡保險承保。

Turning now to underwriting segments: our insurance segment was $1.8 billion of net premium and delivered $120 million of underwriting income in the third quarter. Our acquisition of the MidCorp and entertainment business from Allianz in August helped drive a 20% growth over the same quarter a year ago. We are confident that the MidCorp team will be an important part of our growth story as we further enhance our capabilities in the middle market.

現在轉向核保業務：我們的保險業務第三季的淨保費為 18 億美元，承保收入為 1.2 億美元。我們於 8 月從 Allianz 收購了 MidCorp 和娛樂業務，推動了我們比去年同期成長 20%。我們相信，隨著我們進一步增強我們在中間市場的能力，MidCorp 團隊將成為我們成長故事的重要組成部分。

Excluding MidCorp, insurance growth was mid-single digits as we continue to find attractive growth opportunity in casualty programs and our London market specialty business. Premium rates remained competitive in E&S property and professional lines.

不包括 MidCorp，保險成長為中個位數，因為我們繼續在傷亡計劃和倫敦市場專業業務中尋找有吸引力的成長機會。E&S 房地產和專業產品線的保費率仍具有競爭力。

Reinsurance had another excellent growth quarter with net premium written up more than 24% to over $1.9 billion, along with underwriting income of $149 million as our teams continued to benefit from a more robust relationships with our brokers and cedents. Growth was driven by property ex-cat, including facultative business, casualty, and other specialty.

再保險業務又迎來了一個出色的成長季度，淨保費成長了24% 以上，達到超過19 億美元，承保收入達到1.49 億美元，因為我們的團隊繼續受益於與經紀人和分保公司更牢固的關係。成長是由財產前保險推動的，包括兼任業務、意外保險和其他專業業務。

Our industry-leading mortgage segment again contributed significantly to our earnings with $269 million of underwriting income for the quarter. Underlying fundamentals remain excellent for the mortgage insurance industry, including strong credit conditions and continued favorable house price appreciation. Mortgage origination activities remains light, but new insurance written of $13.5 billion was in line with our expectations as relatively high mortgage rates and continued house price appreciation have kept most buyers on the sidelines.

我們行業領先的抵押貸款業務再次為我們的收益做出了重大貢獻，本季承保收入為 2.69 億美元。抵押貸款保險行業的基本面仍然良好，包括強勁的信貸條件和持續有利的房價升值。抵押貸款發放活動仍然清淡，但新承保 135 億美元符合我們的預期，因為相對較高的抵押貸款利率和持續的房價上漲讓大多數買家保持觀望。

Finally, the contributions from our investment portfolio were substantial. In the quarter, Arch Investment Management generated $399 million of net investment income. Significant operating cash flows from our underwriting units should support continued growth of our assets under management, setting us up for strong investment contribution in the years to come.

最後，我們的投資組合的貢獻是巨大的。本季度，Arch Investment Management 創造了 3.99 億美元的淨投資收入。來自我們承銷部門的大量營運現金流應該支持我們管理的資產的持續成長，為我們在未來幾年做出強勁的投資貢獻奠定基礎。

Looking ahead, we like our position and the market opportunities. This is true as we enter a responsible growth part of the P&C cycle where disciplined underwriting and thoughtful risk selection are essential to success.

展望未來，我們看好我們的地位和市場機會。這是事實，因為我們進入了財產險週期的負責任成長部分，嚴格的承保和深思熟慮的風險選擇對於成功至關重要。

A few final comments in closing. Arch has proven to be an exceptional company defined by a culture of underwriting excellence, underpinned by our core strategies of cycle management and thoughtful capital allocation. That was true yesterday, it is true today, and it will be true tomorrow. I'm very excited and proud to lead this company and work with our leadership team as we continue to strive to deliver the greatest value to our clients and shareholders over the long term.

最後的一些評論。事實證明，Arch 是一家卓越的公司，其特點是卓越的承保文化，並以我們的週期管理和深思熟慮的資本配置核心策略為基礎。昨天是這樣，今天是這樣，明天也是這樣。我非常興奮和自豪能夠領導這家公司並與我們的領導團隊合作，因為我們將繼續努力長期為我們的客戶和股東提供最大的價值。

I'll now turn it over to François to provide some more color on our financial results in the quarter. and then we will return to take your questions. François?

現在我將把它交給 François，為我們本季的財務表現提供更多資訊。然後我們會回來回答您的問題。弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Nicolas, and good morning to all. As you know by now, we reported third quarter after-tax operating income of $1.99 per share for annualized operating return on average common equity of 14.8%. Book value per share was $57 as of September 30, up 8.1% for the quarter and 21.4% on a year-to-date basis.

謝謝你，尼可拉斯，祝大家早安。如您所知，我們報告的第三季稅後營業收入為每股 1.99 美元，平均普通股年化營業報酬率為 14.8%。截至 9 月 30 日，每股帳面價值為 57 美元，本季成長 8.1%，較年初至今成長 21.4%。

Once again, our three business segments delivered excellent underlying results highlighted by $538 million in underwriting income and an 86.6% combined ratio, which was slightly elevated from an active catastrophe quarter. Our combined ratio was 78.3% on an underlying ex-cat accident year basis.

我們的三個業務部門再次取得了出色的基本業績，其中承保收入為 5.38 億美元，綜合成本率為 86.6%，較活躍的災難季度略有上升。在基本的前事故年基礎上，我們的綜合成本率為 78.3%。

Overall, current accident year catastrophe losses were $450 million for the group in the quarter, split roughly 80%, 20% between the reinsurance and insurance segments. Approximately 45% of our catastrophe losses this quarter are due to Hurricane Helene with the rest coming from a series of events, including Canadian events, smaller named hurricanes, US severe convective storms, flooding in Europe, and other events across the globe.

總體而言，本季度該集團當前事故年度巨災損失為 4.5 億美元，其中約 80% 為再保險和保險部門之間的損失，其中 20% 為損失。本季約 45% 的災難損失是由颶風海倫造成的，其餘的則來自一系列事件，包括加拿大事件、較小的命名颶風、美國強對流風暴、歐洲洪水以及全球其他事件。

As of October 1, our peak zone natural cat probable maximum loss for a single event 1 in 200-year return level on a net basis increased slightly and now stands at 8.1% of tangible shareholders' equity as we incorporated exposures from the MidCorp acquisition on August 1. Our PML remains well below our internal limits.

截至10 月1 日，我們的單次事件的峰值區域自然貓可能最大損失為200 年淨回報水準1，略有增加，目前為有形股東權益的8.1%，因為我們納入了MidCorp 收購的風險敞口。我們的 PML 仍然遠低於我們的內部限制。

Our underwriting income included $119 million of favorable prior year development on a pre-tax basis in the quarter, or 3 points on the combined ratio, across our three segments. We recognized favorable development across many lines of business, but primarily in short-tail lines in our property and casualty segments and in mortgage, due to strong cure activity.

我們的核保收入包括本季稅前基礎上 1.19 億美元的有利上年發展，即我們三個部門的綜合比率為 3 個百分點。由於強勁的治療活動，我們認識到許多業務領域都取得了良好的發展，但主要是我們的財產和意外險領域以及抵押貸款的短尾業務。

As you know, we closed on our purchase of the US MidCorp and entertainment insurance businesses from Allianz on August 1, and I would like to expand on a few items that impacted our financials this quarter. First, the net written premium coming from the acquired businesses was $209 million for the two-month period, contributing to the reported year-over-year premium growth for our Insurance segment.

如您所知，我們於 8 月 1 日結束了對安聯 (Allianz) 的美國 MidCorp 和娛樂保險業務的收購，我想詳細介紹一些影響我們本季財務狀況的項目。首先，兩個月期間來自收購業務的淨承保保費為 2.09 億美元，為我們保險部門報告的保費同比增長做出了貢獻。

Second, in accordance with US GAAP, the fair value of the acquired balance sheet does not include an asset for deferred acquisition costs. Therefore, since there is no amortization of deferred acquisition costs associated with the in-force business at the time of the acquisition, the current quarter's acquisition expense ratio is lower than in the third quarter of 2023. This item resulted in a benefit this quarter of approximately 1.9 points in the Insurance segment's acquisition expense ratio, although we would expect this benefit to become less significant over the next three to four quarters, as a larger proportion of our earned premium relates to premium written after the closing date. Operating expenses in the new business were also somewhat lower than ultimately expected as we ramp up operations, contributing to a 60-basis-point benefit in the quarter.

其次，根據美國公認會計準則，被收購資產負債表的公允價值不包括遞延收購成本資產。因此，由於收購時沒有與有效業務相關的遞延收購成本攤銷，本季的收購費用率低於2023年第三季。該專案使本季度保險部門的購置費用率受益約1.9 個百分點，儘管我們預計這一收益在未來三到四個季度內將變得不那麼重要，因為我們賺取的保費中較大比例與保費有關截止日期後。隨著我們加強營運力度，新業務的營運支出也略低於最終預期，為本季帶來了 60 個基點的收益。

Third, as is required with business combinations, we recorded goodwill and intangibles in connection with the transaction, primarily from the value of the business acquired, distribution relationships, and the present value adjustment related to the reserves for losses and loss adjustment expenses. This quarter, we incurred an expense for the amortization of intangibles of $88 million, $63 million of which was for the MidCorp and entertainment acquisition. We expect our overall amortization expense across the group to be approximately $100 million in the fourth quarter of this year and $195 million in 2025, spread evenly throughout the four quarters. While still early, the MidCorp business is performing as expected or even maybe slightly better, and we are satisfied with the progress we are making in our integration activities.

第三，根據業務合併的要求，我們記錄了與交易相關的商譽和無形資產，主要來自所收購業務的價值、分銷關係以及與損失準備金和損失調整費用相關的現值調整。本季度，我們的無形資產攤銷費用為 8,800 萬美元，其中 6,300 萬美元用於 MidCorp 和娛樂收購。我們預計今年第四季整個集團的攤銷費用約為 1 億美元，2025 年為 1.95 億美元，平均分佈在四個季度。雖然還處於早期階段，但 MidCorp 業務的表現符合預期，甚至可能稍好一些，我們對整合活動所取得的進展感到滿意。

Turning to our reinsurance group. The team delivered a very solid 92.3% combined ratio in an active catastrophe quarter. Of note, the reported net written premium growth of 24.5% in the quarter was augmented by reinstatement premiums. Adjusting for this item, the growth rate would have been approximately 22.4%.

轉向我們的再保險集團。該團隊在災難頻繁的季度實現了非常穩定的 92.3% 綜合成本率。值得注意的是，本季報告的淨承保保費增加了 24.5%，其中恢復保費增加了這一增長。調整該項目後，成長率約為22.4%。

The mortgage segment reported an excellent 14.8 combined ratio as cure activity on delinquent mortgages is strong and the underlying credit quality of the book remains very high. The reported delinquency rate at USMI inched up slightly this quarter and was impacted primarily by seasonal factors.

抵押貸款部門的綜合比率為 14.8，非常出色，因為拖欠抵押貸款的補救活動很強勁，而且帳簿的基本信用品質仍然非常高。USMI 報告的拖欠率本季略有上升，主要受到季節性因素的影響。

On the investment front, we earned a combined $570 million pre-tax from net investment income and income from funds accounted using the equity method, or $1.49 per share. Our investment income reflects approximately $20 million earned during the two-month period from the assets we've received in connection with the MidCorp acquisition. Total return for the portfolio came in at 3.97% for the quarter, as there was significant price appreciation on our fixed income portfolio due to lower interest rates. The appreciation of our available-for-sale investment portfolio resulted in a book value increase of $1.56 per share net of tax.

在投資方面，我們從淨投資收益和採用權益法核算的基金收益中總共獲得了 5.7 億美元的稅前收益，即每股 1.49 美元。我們的投資收入反映了我們在兩個月期間從收購 MidCorp 所獲得的資產中賺取的約 2000 萬美元。本季投資組合的總回報率為 3.97%，因為利率下降導致我們的固定收益投資組合價格大幅升值。我們可供出售投資組合的升值導致每股稅後帳面價值增加 1.56 美元。

Cash flow from operations remained strong and exceeds $5 billion on a year-to-date basis. Our effective tax rate on a pre-tax operating income was an expense of 8% for the third quarter and our annualized effective tax rate remains in the 9% to 11% range for the full year 2024.

營運現金流依然強勁，年初至今超過 50 億美元。第三季稅前營業收入的有效稅率為 8%，2024 年全年的年化有效稅率仍維持在 9% 至 11% 的範圍內。

In closing, our balance sheet is strong with common shareholders' equity of $21.4 billion and a debt plus preferred to capital ratio of 14.2%. This level of financial resources gives us flexibility to deploy capital as needed, and continue delivering outstanding results for the benefit of our shareholders.

最後，我們的資產負債表十分強勁，普通股股東權益為 214 億美元，負債加優先股與資本比率為 14.2%。這種水準的財務資源使我們能夠根據需要靈活地部署資本，並繼續為股東的利益提供出色的業績。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

有了這些介紹性評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）Elyse Greenspan，富國銀行。

Hi. Thanks. Good morning. I guess my first question is on the Allianz deal. You gave us some good color on the expenses. But anyway, could you give us a sense of just the impact on the underlying loss ratio within the insurance segment in the quarter?

你好。謝謝。早安.我想我的第一個問題是關於安聯交易的。你給我們提供了有關費用的一些很好的資訊。但無論如何，您能否讓我們了解本季保險部門基本損失率的影響？

Yeah, sure. I mean, just to give you a bit more details on that, the -- call it, the normalized meaning ex-cat [accident] year loss ratio for the segment was $57.6 million, right? And the stand-alone for the MidCorp business was 62% in the quarter. So that's how it came up. So effectively, kind of increased, call it by 70 basis points and increased the reported loss ratio for the ex-cat loss ratio.

是的，當然。我的意思是，只是為了向您提供更多詳細信息，--稱之為，該細分市場的正常化含義前[事故]年損失率為 5760 萬美元，對吧？本季 MidCorp 業務的獨立成長率為 62%。事情就是這樣發生的。因此，實際上，增加了 70 個基點，並增加了報告的前損失率損失率。

Okay. And then in reinsurance, the margin sometimes does fluctuate quarter-to-quarter, but the underlying loss ratio did trend up in the Q3. Was there anything business mix in there that might have impacted that in the quarter?

好的。然後，在再保險領域，利潤率有時確實會按季度波動，但基本損失率在第三季確實呈上升趨勢。是否有任何業務組合可能會影響本季的業績？

Nothing specific. Again, we will -- we'll go back to our trailing 12 months way of looking at things. I mean I took another look this morning and there's nothing unusual in the quarter. I mean the trends are very consistent. Trailing 12 months are doing very well. So the answer is nothing to report. I mean there's just kind of some claims happen, some don't. And over the last 12 months, we're very comfortable with the loss picks and how things are behaving.

沒什麼具體的。我們將再次回到過去 12 個月的看待事物的方式。我的意思是，今天早上我又看了一眼，這個季度沒有什麼異常情況。我的意思是趨勢非常一致。過去 12 個月表現非常好。所以答案是沒什麼好報告的。我的意思是，有些索賠發生了，有些則沒有。在過去 12 個月裡，我們對損失選擇和事情的表現感到非常滿意。

And then my last question is on capital, right? You guys have left the door open, just given your excess capital position to doing something to return to shareholders, be that right a quarterly dividend, a special or even a return to repurchase. So what's the timing there? I thought maybe it was post the end of wind season. Does that still apply? And how are you thinking about how you might look to return capital to shareholders?

我的最後一個問題是關於資本，對吧？你們敞開了大門，只是把多餘的資本部位用來做一些事情來回報股東，無論是季度股息、特別回報還是回購回報。那麼那裡的時間安排是怎麼樣的呢？我想也許是在風季結束後。這仍然適用嗎？您如何考慮如何向股東返還資本？

I mean you hit all the good points. I think it's very much a conversation and it's not a new conversation. It's a conversation we have all the time. And yes, we had certainly mentioned that we wanted to wait till the end of the wind season, which is coming close to an end. And as we get ready for 2025, certainly part of the outlook for 2025 growth opportunities, how -- where we may be able to deploy the capital is something we'll consider as well. But yeah, no question that this is an area that we're focused on. And I'll say you should -- we're not sleeping on it, and we'll report back when there's more to say on that.

我的意思是你抓住了所有的優點。我認為這在很大程度上是一次對話，而且不是一次新的對話。這是我們一直在進行的對話。是的，我們確實提到我們想等到風季結束，風季即將結束。當我們為 2025 年做好準備時，當然是 2025 年成長機會前景的一部分，我們也會考慮如何、在哪裡部署資本。但是，毫無疑問，這是我們關注的領域。我會說你應該——我們不會就此睡覺，當有更多話要說時我們會報告。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen.

安德魯·克里格曼，TD·考恩。

Good morning. Maybe following up on the insurance division and MidCorp. And I think Francois, if I heard correctly, the MidCorp impact on the underlying loss ratio was about 60 to 70 basis points -- and if that's the case, it kind of moved up a fair amount, like 250 bps year-over-year. So I'm trying to get a sense of should -- should we be thinking that this is kind of a good run rate underlying number for the loss ratio? How should we think about it going forward?

早安.也許會跟進保險部門和 MidCorp。我認為弗朗索瓦，如果我沒聽錯的話，MidCorp 對基本損失率的影響約為 60 到 70 個基點 - 如果是這樣的話，它會上升相當多的量，比如同比 250 個基點。所以我試圖了解應該——我們是否應該認為這是損失率的一個良好的運行率基礎數字？今後我們該如何思考？

Well, I mean, we indicated that we thought initially, I mean, we have to get, call it, under the hood, we have to understand the business. But we certainly have said that in the first year, we thought this business was going to be breakeven for us. So yeah, we should expect a little increase in the loss ratio and the combined ratio for the segment. No question.

嗯，我的意思是，我們表示我們最初認為，我的意思是，我們必須在幕後，稱之為，我們必須了解業務。但我們確實說過，在第一年，我們認為這項業務將為我們帶來損益平衡。所以，是的，我們應該預期該部門的損失率和綜合成本率會略有增加。毫無疑問。

In terms of run rate, I'd be a little bit hesitant to commit to anything beyond, call it, the first year. I think we're already making adjustments, taking underwriting actions in terms of we like, what we don't like as much. I think there is good traction, good opportunities in terms of the casualty business that they write. The rates right environment is very strong, so that will help, we think, -- so that's -- again, the short-term answer is yes. I think the combined ratio will probably inch up a little bit, but we have very -- definitive ideas and plans on how to bring that down as we move forward.

就運行率而言，我會有點猶豫是否要承諾第一年之後的任何事情。我認為我們已經在做出調整，根據我們喜歡和不喜歡的內容採取承保行動。我認為他們所寫的傷亡業務有良好的吸引力和良好的機會。正確的利率環境非常強勁，因此我們認為這將有所幫助——因此，短期答案是肯定的。我認為綜合比率可能會略有上升，但我們對於如何在前進過程中降低這一比率有非常明確的想法和計劃。

Yeah. And I think -- it's dynamic. I mean, again, we I mean if you look at the insurance group overall, it's heavy non-property lines, so the property lines attract lower loss ratios. So we were growing in the property line in the last couple of years and the market now it makes it more difficult. And we have a large component of professional lines where rates have been challenging, so that probably increases the loss ratio in the U.S. casualty, where I think we think there is opportunities potentially to grow more with higher margin, but it may come also with a higher loss ratio than property. So that's -- that's the playbook that we are facing.

是的。我認為——它是動態的。我的意思是，我們的意思是，如果你從整體上看保險集團，它的非財產險業務很重，因此財產險的損失率較低。因此，過去幾年我們在房地產領域不斷發展，而現在的市場讓我們的發展變得更加困難。我們有很大一部分專業線路的費率一直具有挑戰性，因此這可能會增加美國傷亡人員的損失率，我認為我們認為有機會以更高的利潤率實現更多增長，但也可能會帶來更多的損失。這就是我們面臨的劇本。

Interesting. And maybe breaking down some of the lines of business in insurance, what kind of rate are you seeing? And is this rate exceeding loss costs? I suspect it's not in property, but maybe you could talk a little bit about some of the key lines in insurance?

有趣的。也許會打破保險業的一些業務線，您看到的利率是多少？這個比率是否超過了損失成本？我懷疑它不是在財產方面，但也許你可以談談保險方面的一些關鍵內容？

So I mean let's talk about casualty, which is talk of the time. I think in casualty, we're definitely seeing rates on the trend -- but there are really good reasons for that. I think the market is going through some pain. And so I think we -- we are underweight in casualty. We historically under weigh casualty. So now I think based on our own analysis of the pocket of casualty business that we like. We are selectively growing both from the insurance and the reinsurance side. So there, I expect margin to expand.

所以我的意思是讓我們來談談傷亡，這是現在的話題。我認為在傷亡方面，我們確實看到了這一趨勢的發生率——但這確實有充分的理由。我認為市場正在經歷一些痛苦。所以我認為我們的傷亡人數不足。我們歷來都在承受傷亡。所以現在我認為基於我們自己對我們喜歡的傷亡業務口袋的分析。我們有選擇性地從保險和再保險方面進行成長。因此，我預計利潤率會擴大。

I think if you mention property, if you talk about reinsurance versus insurance, we're mostly focusing on insurance. On E&S property, we think the profitability is actually very attractive. I think over the last few years and post the Hurricane Helene, I think the business has reacted with a lot of rate increase and a lot of change in terms and conditions, which make the business really attractive.

我認為如果你提到財產，如果你談論再保險與保險，我們主要關注保險。對於E&S房地產，我們認為獲利能力實際上非常有吸引力。我認為在過去的幾年裡，在颶風海倫之後，我認為企業的反應是利率大幅上漲，條款和條件也發生了很多變化，這使得企業非常有吸引力。

So there, I think after a year without losses, people have really short memories. We see a lot more competition coming from Lloyd's, coming from MGAs, coming from new entrants that that want to have a piece of that business. So I think we -- our rates are pretty flat, but I think we'd expect that margin on the business will be -- will depend on the reaction to the catastrophes that just happened.

因此，我認為在沒有損失的一年之後，人們的記憶力真的很糟糕。我們看到更多的競爭來自勞合社、MGA、以及想要分一杯羹的新進者。因此，我認為我們的利率相當平穩，但我認為我們預計業務利潤率將取決於對剛剛發生的災難的反應。

So I think with Milton and Helene, we my expectation is things would stabilize, but ultimately the supply and the demand, there's more supply. We think there's more demand. I think the demand has been constrained by the high price and high deductibles and high retention on the reinsurance side. So I think we're close to an equitable year -- I think the business will remain attractive for a while.

因此，我認為對於米爾頓和海倫來說，我們的預期是事情會穩定下來，但最終供應和需求都會增加。我們認為需求更多。我認為需求受到高價格、高免賠額和再保險方面高保留率的限制。因此，我認為我們即將迎來公平的一年——我認為該業務將在一段時間內保持吸引力。

Awesome. Thank you very much.

驚人的。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Mike Zaremski, BMO Capital Markets.

Mike Zaremski，BMO 資本市場。

Hi. First question is on catastrophes. So I don't know if you disclosed what you're assuming for Hurricane Helene. I know you're I think the cats were a bit higher than the consensus, but you guys have done a good job of giving us disclosure that you've been taking more risk in Florida specifically and just overall. And then also, should we be thinking about Milton as well. I think there's some conflicting numbers out there on open sure PCS is only a $5 billion so far, but there's some much bigger numbers out there?

你好。第一個問題是關於災難的。所以我不知道你是否透露了你對颶風海倫的假設。我知道你們，我認為這些貓比共識要高一些，但你們做得很好，向我們披露了你們在佛羅裡達州特別是總體上冒了更大的風險。然後，我們也應該考慮米爾頓嗎？我認為公開的 PCS 到目前為止只有 50 億美元，其中存在一些相互矛盾的數字，但還有一些更大的數字嗎？

Yeah, sure. On Helene, our view is that it's going to be the type of event that probably will have a bit more leakage than you would otherwise expect. I mean it's just multiple states, and it's a lot of flooding. So we are currently assuming, call it, a $12 billion to $14 billion industry loss. Which is maybe higher than others. And -- but that's how we see it today. I mean things could change, but that hopefully informs how we thought about the event initially and is reflected in our third quarter numbers.

是的，當然。關於海倫，我們的觀點是，這種事件的洩漏可能比您預期的要多一些。我的意思是，這只是多個州的情況，而且發生了很多洪水。因此，我們目前假設產業損失為 120 億至 140 億美元。這可能比其他人要高。而且——但這就是我們今天的看法。我的意思是事情可能會發生變化，但這希望告訴我們最初對這件事的看法，並反映在我們第三季的數據中。

As it relates to Milton, we need to do a bit more work, but we will certainly give you our initial thoughts on that, I think, in the coming weeks in terms of what our loss -- what a range of estimates could be for us. But no question that what we -- what people thought might have been a really scary and large event doesn't seem to have materialized. I think industry estimates are coming down as we speak. So call it the $30 billion plus or minus market loss seems to be about right, given what we know today.

由於它與米爾頓有關，我們需要做更多的工作，但我認為，我們肯定會在未來幾週內就我們的損失向您提供我們的初步想法 - 一系列估計可能會造成什麼我們。但毫無疑問，我們——人們認為可能是一個非常可怕的大型事件似乎並沒有成為現實。我認為就在我們說話的時候，產業預測正在下降。因此，根據我們今天所知的情況，將其稱為 300 億美元正負市場損失似乎是正確的。

And in terms of our own loss related to that, I mean, again, more to come, but you shouldn't expect anything unusual from us. I think from what we can tell at this point, it should be in a relatively consistent kind of market share for us for an event of that size.

就我們自己與此相關的損失而言，我的意思是，還會有更多損失，但你不應該期望我們有任何不尋常的事情。我認為，從我們目前所能得知的情況來看，對於如此規模的活動來說，我們的市佔率應該是相對一致的。

Okay. That's helpful. And -- my last question for Nicolas. Is there any context or color you can add to the -- what -- why the CEO change took place. That’s been the number one question I'm sure you all have received, and we have too people wondering if it's performance related versus just some other events or anything else? Any color you'd be able to add?

好的。這很有幫助。還有──我要問尼古拉斯的最後一個問題。您是否可以添加任何背景或色彩來說明執行長變更的原因？我相信這是你們大家收到的第一個問題，我們也有人想知道它是否與性能相關，而不是與其他一些事件或其他什麼有關？您可以添加任何顏色嗎？

I didn't understand, the deal?

我沒明白，交易？

The CEO Marc's departure.

執行長馬克離職。

Should know that. (laughter) No. I mean, again, it was a personal decision that is, I think as I said, Marc and I were good friends. It's a bit bittersweet for me, but based on this decision, I'm actually very excited about the opportunity in front of us. I think Marc is -- I think Arch is bigger than any one of us, and I think we have -- we have a lot to do, and we have a lot of exciting things to continue to do in the coming years. And I think we have a really good management team. We have 7,000 employees that are really engaged. And as I said, I think Arch is an exceptional company, and I'm really looking forward to continue this journey and -- and certainly, I think Marc’s departure is not performance-related, that the guy under his leadership, and I said the company has performed amazingly well.

應該知道這一點。（笑聲）不。我的意思是，這又是一個個人決定，我認為正如我所說，馬克和我是好朋友。這對我來說有點苦樂參半，但基於這個決定，我實際上對擺在我們面前的機會感到非常興奮。我認為 Marc——我認為 Arch 比我們任何人都更偉大，而且我認為我們——我們有很多事情要做，我們有很多令人興奮的事情要在未來幾年繼續做。我認為我們擁有一支非常優秀的管理團隊。我們有 7,000 名真正敬業的員工。正如我所說，我認為 Arch 是一家傑出的公司，我真的很期待繼續這一旅程，當然，我認為 Marc 的離開與業績無關，他領導下的那個人，我說公司的表現非常好。

And I guess, Nicolas is helpful. Obviously, you’ll put your own stamp on the company over time and you're a different type of leader and we're all excited to -- about your position. But I'm just curious, is there now that you are at the boss, are there certain things we should kind of stay tuned for that have kind of been on your wish list that you'll be able to kind of push through? Or do you kind of expect just more of the same directionally? Thanks.

我想尼古拉斯很有幫助。顯然，隨著時間的推移，你會在公司留下自己的印記，你是一位不同類型的領導者，我們都對你的職位感到興奮。但我只是好奇，現在你已經成為老闆了，是否有一些我們應該繼續關注的事情，這些事情已經在你的願望清單上，你將能夠推動完成？還是你期待更多相同的方向？謝謝。

No, not a message to -- it's really business as usual. I think I've been with the company for 23 years, have worked very closely with Marc in the last five or six years in setting up strategies, looking at operation changes, looking at culture. So I think we -- him and I were extremely aligned. So I think I would not expect any changes in the way we operate.

不，這不是一則訊息——一切如常。我想我已經在公司工作了 23 年，在過去五、六年與 Marc 密切合作，制定策略、研究營運變化、研究文化。所以我認為我們——他和我非常一致。因此，我認為我們的營運方式不會發生任何變化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jimmy Bhullar, JPMorgan.

吉米·布拉爾，摩根大通。

Hey. Good morning. So first, I just had a question on your views on 1/1 renewal and what do you think about the sort of supply-demand imbalance? And has that sort of shifted given losses from Milton -- or is your view consistent with how you would have thought before?

嘿。早安.首先，我想問您對1/1續訂的看法，您對這種供需失衡有何看法？鑑於米爾頓的損失，這種情況是否發生了變化——或者你的觀點是否與你先前的想法一致？

So is the question on property cat I assume?

那麼我認為問題是關於財產貓的嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah. So, I think on property cat, I think, as you've seen, we've grown the book quite a bit in the last two or three years. So we think the returns are really attractive.

是的。所以，我認為在《財產貓》方面，正如你所看到的，我們在過去兩三年裡讓這本書有了很大的發展。所以我們認為回報確實很有吸引力。

Yes, I think we have event of Milton and Helene in my view, what we hear is that you stabilize the market. And I think there was a lot some supply, as I said earlier, is there from Lloyds or from MGAs or from our competitors. After one year without losses really wanting to get back in the business and realizing that they may have missed out on a profitable line of business. So what I would expect, and we see it on the insurance side that things have stabilized. And I think my guess is at this stage is that we will do the same on the cat reinsurance side.

是的，我認為我們有米爾頓和海倫的事件，我們聽到的是你們穩定了市場。我認為，正如我之前所說，有很多供應來自勞埃德銀行、MGA 或我們的競爭對手。在一年沒有虧損之後，他們真的想重新回到這個行業，並意識到他們可能已經錯過了一個有利可圖的業務領域。因此，正如我所期望的那樣，我們在保險方面看到情況已經穩定下來。我認為現階段我的猜測是我們將在巨災再保險方面做同樣的事情。

And more specifically, are you expecting pricing to be down, flat or -- and to whatever extent you're able to quantify would be helpful?

更具體地說，您預計價格會下降、持平還是——您能夠量化的程度會有所幫助嗎？

Yes. I don't have a crystal ball. I would say, again, it's always the same with programs that are being impacted by losses. I would expect prices to go up. In regions that had no losses, you could see in the bottom of the programs, I think people are still really scared about frequency, so I'd expect the bottom to middle side of the program to perform well.

是的。我沒有水晶球。我想說，對於受到損失影響的專案來說，情況總是一樣的。我預計價格會上漲。在沒有損失的地區，你可以在程序的底部看到，我認為人們仍然非常害怕頻率，所以我希望程式的底部到中間部分錶現良好。

The upper layers where people seem to be more comfortable to play where competition is coming because you are away from the midsize also, it could be a little bit of weakness, but not really have a strong conviction either way. But I think mostly stable.

在上層，人們似乎更願意在競爭即將來臨的地方打球，因為你也遠離中型，這可能是有點弱點，但無論如何都沒有真正的堅定信念。但我認為大多是穩定的。

And then on casualty reserves, a lot of companies have had adverse development, some on recent years, some money even some on peak over the years as well. Can you talk about your own comfort with your casualty reserves on your legacy book as well as the Watford business?

然後在傷亡準備金上，很多公司的發展都不好，有的是近幾年的，有的甚至是歷年來的巔峰。您能談談您對遺產簿上的傷亡準備金以及沃特福德業務的滿意度嗎？

Sure. I mean, reserves is something we looked at. We look at regularly, quarterly, right? So it's nothing new here. I think we're -- to answer your question, we're very comfortable with our reserve levels. I think from couple of reasons. One is we were -- as Nicolas said, we have been underweight in casualty for a number of years. So as much as, yes, we do feel and see some of the impacts of social inflation and pressures on loss trends on casualty business in general. I mean the fact that we're underweight in those lines has been very helpful.

當然。我的意思是，儲備是我們所關注的。我們定期、每季查看一次，對吧？所以這並不是什麼新鮮事。我認為，為了回​​答你的問題，我們對我們的儲備水平感到非常滿意。我認為有幾個原因。一是我們——正如尼古拉斯所說，多年來我們的傷亡人數一直不足。因此，是的，我們確實感受到並看到了社會通貨膨脹和損失趨勢壓力對意外險業務的一些影響。我的意思是，我們在這些方面的減持非常有幫助。

So yes, we are monitoring casualty reserves. There, we have experienced some adverse development, but it's been overall very manageable. And that explains, in our mind, is a big reason as to why rates are moving up because the industry is seeing the pressure and a way to correct for those results is really by getting more rate.

所以，是的，我們正在監控傷亡儲備。在那裡，我們經歷了一些不利的發展，但總體來說是非常可控的。在我們看來，這解釋了利率上升的一個重要原因，因為該行業看到了壓力，而糾正這些結果的一種方法實際上是提高利率。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Cave Montazeri, Deutsche Bank.

蒙塔澤里洞，德意志銀行。

Good morning. First question is on growth. I guess, François, you've already explained the growth in primary insurance I guess, underlying once you exclude MidCorp, is about 5%. In reinsurance, you also mentioned the impact of reinstatement premium. I think you said it was still 22% growth even adjusting for that, still a big number. Could you give us a bit more color on like what drove that in terms of how much of that was pricing? How much of those like unit growth? How much of that was maybe writing more casualty business. Any type of color on that would be quite helpful, please.

早安.第一個問題是關於成長。我想，弗朗索瓦，你已經解釋了初級保險的成長，我猜，一旦你排除 MidCorp，基本保險的成長約為 5%。在再保險方面，您也提到了恢復保費的影響。我想你說過即使調整後仍然是 22% 的成長，仍然是一個很大的數字。您能否給我們更多的信息，例如定價的推動因素？有多少人喜歡單位成長？其中有多少可能是在寫更多傷亡的業務。任何類型的顏色都會很有幫助。

Yes. I think for the quarter, I think the driver of the growth was a bit of casualty return mostly our US company, where I think we -- we selectively are trying to -- are getting on programs that we haven't been as rates get better, we think there's opportunities for us to write attractive casualty business.

是的。我認為，就本季度而言，成長的驅動力是一些傷亡回報，主要是我們的美國公司，我認為我們——我們有選擇地正在嘗試——正在實施隨著利率上升而沒有實施的計劃更好的是，我們認為我們有機會撰寫有吸引力的傷亡業務。

And on the other side of the business that grew is the specialty business, the return. And that's more of business that we wrote 1/1 that is coming in on quota shares, and some of it is we have a decent size book of business that support Lloyd's -- Lloyd's syndicates where called FAL, where we get quarter share of what they write net of their protection. So that -- that business is growing. Lloyd's is growing, and we think it's a profitable business. So we benefit from that.

成長業務的另一面是專業業務，即回報。我們寫的1/1 的業務更多的是配額份額，其中一些是我們有相當大的業務簿來支持勞合社——勞合社的辛迪加，稱為FAL，我們在那裡獲得四分之一的份額他們寫下了他們的保護網。因此，該業務正在成長。勞合社正在成長，我們認為這是一項有利可圖的業務。所以我們從中受益。

And the second aspect is we have a decent size book of motor United Kingdom motor, and that business is really dislocated, it's been dislocated, and we -- we've been playing in that field for a while. And as rates are continuing to go up, and I think they added a 1/1 additional relationship be benefiting of this in the quarter. But it's not any action that we actually took during this specific quarter.

第二個方面是，我們有一本相當大的英國電機手冊，這項業務確實錯位了，它已經錯位了，我們——我們已經在這個領域玩了一段時間了。隨著利率持續上升，我認為他們增加了 1/1 的額外關係，本季將受益於此。但這並不是我們在這個特定季度實際採取的任何行動。

So -- the last piece is our facultative operation that has an amazing track record and is one of the leading accusative operation, property operation in North America and -- they also have shown some excellent growth.

所以，最後一點是我們的兼任業務，它有著驚人的業績記錄，是北美領先的賓格業務、房地產業務之一，而且它們也表現出了一些出色的增長。

Perfect. My follow-up is on the mortgage insurance business. I guess two parts to that question. The first one is the growth in the quarter, was that primarily driven by the Fed cuts that just boosted demand? And I guess linked to that is the pickup in delinquency in mortgage insurance, is that also just linked to more activity? I know you mentioned some seasonal factors. I don't know what those were. If there's any details, we can have on that, please?

完美的。我的後續工作是抵押貸款保險業務。我想這個問題有兩個部分。第一個是本季的成長，這主要是由聯準會降息刺激需求推動的嗎？我想與此相關的是抵押貸款保險拖欠率的上升，這是否也與更多的活動有關？我知道你提到了一些季節性因素。我不知道那些是什麼。如果有任何細節，我們可以提供一下嗎？

Yeah. I'll start with that. I think the delinquency, again, yes, itself, but it's absolutely very much within our expectations. The one thing maybe for people to remember or appreciate is given we've refinanced a significant part of the book in 2020 and 2021. We're now entering call it, the prime years of when delinquencies get recorded. So that's very much part of the -- again, within our expectations, right? So as new loans get on the books. Usually, it takes three, four years for them to show a bit of, just call it, really predictable and normal delinquencies.

是的。我將從那開始。我再次認為，拖欠行為本身，但它絕對在我們的預期之內。人們可能會記住或欣賞的一件事是，我們在 2020 年和 2021 年為本書的很大一部分進行了再融資。我們現在正進入拖欠記錄的黃金時期。所以這在很大程度上是在我們的預期之內的，對吧？隨著新貸款的出現，情況也是如此。通常，他們需要三到四年的時間才能表現出一些真正可預測的正常拖欠行為。

So that explains why in aggregate or delinquency rate is trending up a little bit. And more specifically on the seasonal aspect, I mean, every year, there's fairly predictable behaviors that we see from the borrowers, whether they get their tax refunds and in the first quarter and then they catch up on their mortgages and whether they borrow more to buy holiday presents. So that happens.

這就解釋了為什麼總體拖欠率會呈現上升趨勢。更具體地說，在季節性方面，我的意思是，每年，我們都會從借款人那裡看到相當可預測的行為，他們是否獲得退稅，在第一季度，然後他們會追上抵押貸款，以及他們是否會借更多錢來償還債務。所以就會發生這種情況。

And then the third quarter is typically expected and seen as we -- I mean, we've seen that in the recent history that the delinquency rate just goes up in the third quarter without any more just seasonal. So again, we're very comfortable with the overall rate. And again, there's a little bit -- the same differential that I mentioned last quarter related to the -- RMIC acquisition is still there, so it's a pre-financial crisis book that is -- has its own set of characteristics.

然後，第三季通常是我們預期和看到的——我的意思是，我們在最近的歷史中看到，拖欠率在第三季度上升，而不再只是季節性的。再說一次，我們對整體價格感到非常滿意。再說一遍，我上個季度提到的與收購 RMIC 相關的差異仍然存在，所以這是一本金融危機前的書，有它自己的一套特徵。

So we're, again, overall, very happy, very comfortable with the delinquency rate -- and in terms of the premium, your first part of the question, there's a couple of accounting differences or nuances this quarter. So I wouldn't read too much, I think, in the growth that we saw this quarter. There's a little bit of a catch-up on premium that was related to old -- or related to Bellemeade transactions on the ceded side. So generally speaking, I'd say the mortgage segment is relatively flat in terms of growth opportunities.

因此，總的來說，我們對拖欠率感到非常滿意和滿意——就保費而言，問題的第一部分，本季度存在一些會計差異或細微差別。因此，我認為，我不會過度解讀本季我們看到的成長。與舊的或與被讓與方的貝爾米德交易有關的保費有一些追趕。總的來說，我認為抵押貸款領域的成長機會相對穩定。

David Motemaden, Evercore ISI.

大衛·莫特馬登，Evercore ISI。

Thanks. Good morning. François. Thanks so much for all the detail you gave on the insurance underlying loss ratio, both including and excluding the MidCorp acquisition. So I guess just sort of running through those numbers there, it looks like if I take out MidCorp, it was about a 57% underlying loss ratio for the sort of core Arch insurance business. And so that picked up a little over 100 basis points versus last quarter and also on a year-over-year basis. So I'm just wondering if you could help me think through some of the drivers of that increase?

謝謝。早安.弗朗索瓦.非常感謝您提供有關保險基本損失率的所有詳細信息，包括和不包括 MidCorp 收購。所以我想只要瀏覽一下這些數字，看起來如果我去掉 MidCorp，Arch 核心保險業務的基本損失率約為 57%。因此，與上季相比，年比也上升了 100 個基點多一點。所以我只是想知道你是否可以幫我思考一下這種成長的一些驅動因素？

Yeah. I'd say, again, it's -- Nicolas touched on it, its growth related in mix, right, in the sense that where you saw us grow this quarter. And I don't think if you have the time to look at in the supplement, how we report the lines of business, which is we have changed this quarter relative to the past, more growth in casualty and other liability lines of business, both -- I mean, primarily on an occurrence basis, claims made, which is more professional lines book and cyber or that has come down.

是的。我想說，尼古拉斯談到了這一點，它的成長與組合有關，對吧，從你看到我們本季成長的角度來看。我認為您是否有時間在補充中查看我們如何報告業務範圍，即本季度相對於過去我們發生了變化，傷亡和其他責任業務範圍的增長更多——我的意思是，主要是在發生的基礎上，提出的主張，這是更專業的線路書籍和網絡，或者已經下降了。

But that business typically carries a higher accident year loss ratio than property business once we remove the cat load. So that is really the big driver of the pickup is really mix as we have grown in the last little while more in casualty and remain relatively flat on property.

但一旦我們消除了巨災負擔，該業務的事故年損失率通常比房地產業務更高。因此，這確實是皮卡的主要驅動因素，因為我們在過去的一段時間裡有所增長，而傷亡人數卻更多，而財產方面則保持相對平穩。

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. I appreciate that. And then maybe a follow-up on the reserves just within insurance and reinsurance. I was wondering if there's any way you could size those moving pieces for us between the short tail and the long tail development?

知道了。好的。這很有幫助。我很欣賞這一點。然後可能是保險和再保險領域的準備金的後續行動。我想知道是否有什麼方法可以為我們調整短尾和長尾開發之間的移動部分？

Well, I mean, we -- in total, I mean -- and that will be in the queue, but yeah, we’re definitely very favorable on short tail lines of business, a little bit of adverse on long tail lines. So that's consistent with recent trends. I mean, as I mentioned earlier, we are -- we're seeing a little bit of pressure on casualty, longer-tail lines of business. There's been some favorable in workers' comp, as you've seen, I'm sure, with many of our competitors.

嗯，我的意思是，我們——總的來說，我的意思是——這將在隊列中，但是，是的，我們肯定對短尾業務非常有利，對長尾業務有點不利。這與最近的趨勢是一致的。我的意思是，正如我之前提到的，我們看到傷亡人員和長尾業務面臨一些壓力。我確信，正如您在我們的許多競爭對手中所看到的那樣，工人報酬方面有一些有利的條件。

I think that's been a consistent story for quite some time. But again, the bottom line in aggregate is we're able to -- we're observing kind of favorable development, lower actual than expected, and that is coming through in our numbers.

我認為這在相當長的一段時間裡都是一個一致的故事。但同樣，總的來說，我們能夠——我們觀察到一種有利的發展，實際情況低於預期，這在我們的數據中得到了體現。

Understood. Thank you.

明白了。謝謝。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

I think he might have dropped. We're not hearing anything.

我想他可能已經掉隊了。我們什麼也沒聽到。

Meyer Shields, KBW.

邁耶·希爾茲，KBW。

Great. I think we've talked about this in the past, but I wanted to get Nicolas' thoughts on cycle management. Specifically, I guess, with retail distribution and in particular, the MidCorp business, is that less amenable to cycle management?

偉大的。我想我們過去已經討論過這個問題，但我想了解尼可拉斯對週期管理的想法。具體來說，我想，對於零售分銷，特別是 MidCorp 業務，是否不太適合週期管理？

So I mean, my view is it's a different type of cycle management. I mean the -- what's attractive with the MidCorp business is it's more stable. So which means that the cycle are more muted. You don't see the same price going up and down like excess D&O, public excess D&O. You got [40] and you make up [20] or [10]. So I think in the middle market business, I think you have more -- it's going up slower, and it's going down much slower. So I think that that provide -- I think we like that provides a much balance to our insurance book that has a large component of larger corporate risk that are more subject to large situations in rates.

所以我的意思是，我的觀點是這是一種不同類型的周期管理。我的意思是，MidCorp 業務的吸引力在於它更加穩定。這意味著週期更加平靜。您不會看到像超額 D&O、公共超額 D&O 那樣的相同價格上漲和下跌。你得到了 [40] 並且你彌補了 [20] 或[10]。所以我認為在中間市場業務中，我認為你有更多的東西——它的成長速度更慢，而且下降速度也慢得多。因此，我認為這為我們的保險帳簿提供了很大的平衡，其中很大一部分是較大的企業風險，這些風險更容易受到利率大情況的影響。

And the thing that's attractive to us is the value proposition of a carrier in the MidCorp segment is better because usually the distribution partner, the brokers rely on the carrier to provide more than one kind of business like -- so you're more important to him. The interaction with the carrier is more valued. So you create the stickiness that really helps -- you're not competing solely on price, where when you deal with a large account and a risk manager price is an important component of the value proposition.

對我們有吸引力的是，中型企業細分市場中運營商的價值主張更好，因為通常分銷合作夥伴、經紀人依賴運營商提供不止一種業務，例如——所以你更重要的是他。與載體的互動更有價值。因此，您創造了真正有幫助的黏性——您不僅僅在價格上競爭，當您與大客戶和風險經理打交道時，價格是價值主張的重要組成部分。

But here, I think -- so it's less subject to in my view price competition, which make it more stable and more attractive. And I think the thing that's interesting to us with the MidCorp acquisition is that the timing is pretty good because we've seen price increases on the property side because this book is more exposed to secondary period and the liability component of the book is subject to the discussion that we talked about before.

但我認為，在這裡，我認為它較少受到價格競爭的影響，這使其更穩定、更有吸引力。我認為我們對 MidCorp 收購感興趣的是，時機非常好，因為我們看到房地產方面的價格上漲，因為這本書更多地暴露於第二期，而本書的負債部分受到我們之前討論過的討論。

So I think we -- our timing is really good. I think the book looks to be performing well enough. And so we're pretty excited to be able to find a like a decent chunk of that business and to be at scale and being able to expand our footprint in what we think is a very attractive part of the market.

所以我認為我們的時機非常好。我認為這本書看起來表現得夠好。因此，我們非常高興能夠在該業務中找到相當大的一塊，並擴大規模，並能夠在我們認為非常有吸引力的市場部分中擴大我們的足跡。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then if I can switch gears a little bit, I know it's early on the January 1 discussions for property cat. Is there anything you can share with regard to expectations for ceding commission trends in casualty reinsurance?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後，如果我可以稍微改變態度，我知道 1 月 1 日關於「財產貓」的討論還早。對於傷亡再保險中佣金分出趨勢的預期，您有什麼可以分享的嗎？

So I'm going to be the wise person here. I think as we insure and including ourselves in see more bad news coming from the past. I think the -- there will be pressure on ceding commission. You would expect that -- the question is the supply. I mean the pressure on the ceding commission will be muted by the supplier, because if there's more people wanting the business and there's a limited amount of business being placed, I think the brokers is going to -- is going to play a big role in minimizing I mean, the directions of where the ceding commission are going to be.

所以我將成為這裡的聰明人。我認為，當我們確保並讓自己參與其中時，我們會看到更多來自過去的壞消息。我認為——放棄佣金將會面臨壓力。你可能會想到——問題是供應。我的意思是，供應商將減輕放棄佣金的壓力，因為如果有更多的人想要這項業務，而業務量有限，我認為經紀人將在這方面發揮重要作用。化放棄委員會的方向。

So it's going to be a some sort of conflict between what the reinsurance wants and what the ceding companies are willing to do. And -- but the driver would be the supply versus the demand. And I think -- and what I'm hearing is that there is ample supply in the marketplace.

因此，再保險公司想要的和分保公司願意做的之間將會存在某種衝突。而且——但驅動因素是供給與需求。我認為——我所聽到的是市場上有充足的供應。

Okay. Perfect. Thank you so much.

好的。完美的。太感謝了。

Yaron Kinar, Jefferies.

亞倫·基納爾，傑弗里斯。

Thank you. I apologize for dropping earlier. I wanted to dive a little bit deeper into the other liability occurrence growth in insurance. How much of that came from MC versus just organic or legacy growth?

謝謝。我為之前的放棄表示歉意。我想更深入地研究保險中其他責任發生的成長。其中有多少來自 MC，而不是單純的有機成長或傳統成長？

It's a good question. There was a fair amount of E&S casualty business on our kind of like is just organic, right? So that is an area of maybe the most exciting area for us. I mean, where rates are well into the double digits in terms of rate increases. So that is a very, very attractive area.

這是一個好問題。我們有相當多的 E&S 傷亡業務，就像有機的一樣，對嗎？所以這對我們來說可能是最令人興奮的領域。我的意思是，就利率上漲而言，利率已經達到兩位數。所以這是一個非常非常有吸引力的領域。

The MC book is split. There's some commercial multi-peril -- there's some occurrence of the liability occurrence, so it's a mixed bag. But I'd say I don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I think you should -- the takeaway is that the rate environment in that particular line of business is very, very good right now.

MC書被分割了。有一些商業多重風險——有一些責任事故的發生，所以這是一個混合體。但我想說，我面前沒有確切的數字，但我認為你應該知道——結論是，該特定業務領域的利率環境目前非常非常好。

Okay. And what is it about the third quarter where the environment it seems to have accelerated significantly or at least the opportunity set in other liability occurrence accelerated significantly?

好的。第三季的環境似乎顯著加速，或至少其他負債發生的機會顯著加速，這是什麼情況？

I think it's just a function of people realizing that the way they were looking at the reserves in the last few years is not exactly playing out. I think COVID for a while muted the claims. So people kind of in my view, sitting out there to make sure they were not making their own reason. And since COVID, I think we -- we've seen some severity larger world, planted jury awards, and we've seen -- and we've seen more places where those jury awards are taking place, largely Europe. So I think you have like social inflation that's driving much more severity and you have -- so frequency of places used to be Cook County, South Texas-Mexican border, but now you have Georgia, you have some place in Nevada, where certain juries actually, if you get caught in one of these juries, you're going to get a significantly large award.

我認為這只是人們意識到過去幾年他們看待儲備的方式並沒有完全發揮作用。我認為新冠疫情暫時壓制了這種說法。所以在我看來，人們坐在那裡是為了確保他們沒有做出自己的理由。自從新冠疫情以來，我認為我們——我們已經看到了更大的世界，設立了陪審團獎項，我們已經看到——我們已經看到更多的地方進行這些陪審團獎項，主要是歐洲。所以我認為社會通貨膨脹會導致更加嚴重，而且過去經常出現的地方是庫克縣、德克薩斯州南部和墨西哥邊境，但現在有喬治亞州、內華達州的某個地方，某些陪審團在那裡事實上，如果你被這些陪審團之一抓住，你將獲得一筆相當大的獎項。

So I think it's a combination of frequency and severity and people realizing that they have to -- they have to stay ahead of those. And the normal reaction, which I think is the right reaction for the market has been to cut limits because if you're caught up in one of those difficult juries, you want to have small limits. And typically, when you had, I don't know, $200 million placement with 10 players and suddenly, you have 40 players to complete the placement, some of those layers going to the E&S market, you're starting to see some taste increases. And that's what we're witnessing right now.

所以我認為這是頻率和嚴重性的結合，人們意識到他們必須——他們必須保持領先。正常的反應，我認為對市場來說正確的反應是削減限制，因為如果你陷入那些困難的陪審團之一，你希望有小的限制。通常情況下，當你為 10 名玩家提供 2 億美元的安置時，我不知道，突然間，你有 40 名玩家來完成安置，其中一些層進入 E&S 市場，你開始看到品味有所提高。這就是我們現在所目睹的。

But if I could maybe flesh this out a little more. What you're describing is not new. I mean if we go back to previous management meetings, conferences, calls. We have been hearing management talk about this for several quarters, if not years, even in some cases. So what's happened in this third quarter that seems to have triggered some significant change?

但如果我能再充實一點就好了。你所描述的並不新鮮。我的意思是，如果我們回到以前的管理會議、大會、電話會議。我們幾個季度甚至幾年來一直聽到管理層談論這個問題，甚至在某些情況下也是如此。那麼第三季度發生了什麼似乎引發了一些重大變化？

I think it's just the accumulation in that people took actions, but when actuaries or management look at the chance for the business they're writing today to be profitable, they ask themselves, they need more safety margin. I think it's -- I think there was some rate increase double-digit trade increases two or three years ago. Then we -- for a little while, we went to single digit, and suddenly, we are back in double digit. It tells you that there is paying in the back years of people that have written that business in the early years and in the last few years.

我認為這只是人們採取行動的積累，但是當精算師或管理層看到他們今天所寫的業務盈利的機會時，他們問自己，他們需要更多的安全邊際。我認為，兩三年前，貿易成長出現了兩位數的成長。然後我們——有一段時間，我們的數字達到了個位數，突然間，我們又回到了兩位數。它告訴你，在早年和近幾年寫過該業務的人在後幾年裡付出了代價。

And usually, the reaction -- it's not unusual that the reactions are more broad because at some point, management lose faith in the story they've being told, so they require more drastic actions. That's the usual playbook of how market happens.

通常情況下，反應範圍更廣泛並不罕見，因為在某些時候，管理層對他們所講述的故事失去了信心，因此他們需要採取更嚴厲的行動。這是市場發生的常見劇本。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Brian Meredith, UBS Financial.

布萊恩‧梅瑞迪斯 (Brian Meredith)，瑞銀金融集團。

Yes. Thanks. Nicolas, I want to follow up on that a little, just a little bit. So I understand what you're saying about your opportunities for growth here in some of the casualty lines. But maybe I can get your perspective a little bit more on what do you think casualty trend is? And where is it going, just because you must be pretty confident in kind of having good grasp on where casualty trend is, given that you're growing and some other are shrinking?

是的。謝謝。尼古拉斯，我想稍微跟進一下。所以我理解你所說的在一些傷亡險種中的成長機會。但也許我可以進一步了解您對傷亡趨勢的看法？考慮到您正在成長而其他一些正在萎縮，您必須非常有信心能夠很好地掌握傷亡趨勢，它會走向何方？

Yeah. So I think, I mean, yes, it's a tale of several stories. I think -- at the bottom of the program, I think people can have a pretty good idea what your casualty trend is, whether it's mid-single digit. The issue is when you go excess. If you go in excess of $50 million, if you got excess of $100 million, that's where the trend get to multiply OpEx. And you are certainly in double digits.

是的。所以我想，我的意思是，是的，這是一個由多個故事組成的故事。我認為，在該計劃的底部，我認為人們可以很好地了解傷亡趨勢是什麼，無論是中位數。問題是當你過度時。如果您的支出超過 5000 萬美元，如果您的支出超過 1 億美元，營運支出就會呈現倍增趨勢。你肯定是兩位數。

I think ourselves, in a way, we -- we were lucky we didn't have a huge footprint on the casualty business, but we have enough footprint to be able to do our own analysis. And again, it's selective. The thing to treat different class of business, different geographies, you have to be able to do really selective price increases, analysis to get comfortable that in certain jurisdictions, with certain parts of business, you think the business based on your own actual experience, the business makes sense to be returned.

我認為我們自己，在某種程度上，我們很幸運，我們在傷亡業務上沒有留下巨大的足跡，但我們有足夠的足跡能夠進行我們自己的分析。再說一次，它是有選擇性的。對待不同類別的業務、不同的地區，你必須能夠真正有選擇性地提高價格，並進行分析，以適應在某些司法管轄區，針對某些業務部分，你根據自己的實際經驗認為該業務，業務被退回是有意義的。

So it's not -- I would not say it's a sea change, that suddenly any pieces of business that come across your desk is going to be profitable. You have to be you have to be selective and have a thoughtful approach to what you want to underwrite. That's a market we are in.

所以，我不會說這是一個巨大的變化，突然間你辦公桌上的任何業務都會獲利。您必須有選擇性，並對您想要承保的項目採取深思熟慮的方法。這就是我們所處的市場。

Got you. And the same question, I guess, for reinsurance, right? Reinsurance, you're kind of relying on the cedes?

明白你了。我想，再保險也有同樣的問題，對吧？再保險，你有點依賴分讓嗎？

Yes. So again, I mean, the job of the reinsurer is to back the right companies. So I think we are -- for a while, I think we've been really underweight on the casualty US quota shares and excess of loss. And I think this dislocation in the marketplace has allowed us to get on program that we wanted to get on two or three years ago because we like the underwriting. We like the limit discipline. We like the class of business they're right, but we couldn't get on because nobody was exceeding. So I think we -- and I think there is some sort of a flight into quality of who is here for the long term and who is not. And I think we're benefiting from that.

是的。我的意思是，再保險公司的工作就是為合適的公司提供支援。所以我認為我們——有一段時間，我認為我們在美國的意外配額份額和超額損失方面確實減持了。我認為市場的這種混亂使我們能夠進行兩三年前我們想要進行的計劃，因為我們喜歡承保。我們喜歡極限紀律。我們喜歡他們所說的正確的業務類別，但我們無法相處，因為沒有人超越。所以我認為我們——而且我認為，對於誰會長期留在這裡、誰不會長期留在這裡，存在著某種品質上的差異。我認為我們正在從中受益。

Makes sense. And then, François, one quick one here for you on the investment portfolio. I guess, one, where are we looking at new money yields versus current book yields? And where are you deploying the assets, you got out of MidCorp. Is there some more potential book yield to come out going forward?

有道理。然後，弗朗索瓦，為您簡單介紹一下投資組合。我想，第一，我們在哪裡看待新資金收益率與當前帳面收益率？你從 MidCorp 中出來了，你在哪裡部署資產。未來是否還會出現更多潛在的帳面收益率？

Yeah. I mean, part of the transaction was certainly some of the -- a good chunk of the assets came in cash. So our investment team has been very disciplined and thoughtful on where to put that money to work and -- but the good thing is just on money market or cash, we're still getting a decent yield.

是的。我的意思是，交易的一部分肯定是其中的一部分——很大一部分資產都是現金。因此，我們的投資團隊在將這些資金投入到何處方面一直非常自律且深思熟慮，但好處是在貨幣市場或現金上，我們仍然獲得了不錯的收益。

But yeah, I'd say, call it, 4.5% on new money yield, I mean, as you see, the book yield and the new money yields are kind of pretty close to each other right now. We're still very short duration, very high-quality fixed income book, so that's not changing. But yeah, there's certainly been, call it, the $2 billion in assets that we got we are putting that to work and trying to fit that into the portfolio as best we can.

但是，是的，我想說，新貨幣收益率為 4.5%，我的意思是，正如你所看到的，帳面收益率和新貨幣收益率目前非常接近。我們仍然是期限很短、品質非常高的固定收益書籍，所以這一點不會改變。但是，是的，我們確實擁有 20 億美元的資產，我們正在將其投入使用，並盡力將其納入投資組合。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Joshua Shanker, Bank of America.

約書亞‧尚克，美國銀行。

Yeah. Good morning or almost good afternoon. How are you doing? So I get it, there's less meaty sports talk than ever. (laughter) But I was wondering, in the past, we've talked about the ROIC on the different legs of the Arch stool reinsurance, insurance, mortgage. Could you review right now sort of state of the union on what the return on new capital is for the various businesses?

是的。早安或幾乎下午好。你好嗎？所以我明白了，關於體育的話題比以往任何時候都少了。（笑聲）但我想知道，過去，我們在Arch凳子的不同腿上討論過ROIC，即再保險、保險、抵押貸款。現在您能否回顧一下聯盟的現狀，了解各種企業的新資本報酬率是多少？

We like all our businesses. That has not changed. The one thing that I'd say right now is -- I mean, fourth quarter, we're a little bit kind of dependent on where the market goes at 1/1. So that is -- certainly, reinsurance has been just a really, really good environment for 2024. How does it play out in '25? It's still a little bit early to know for sure. We think it's going to be still a very good market. Is it going to get better to the point where we have the ability to deploy that much more capital in reinsurance, we don't know quite yet. So -- that's kind of the answer. I mean, there were a little bit wait-and-see approach in terms of how the market plays out.

我們喜歡我們所有的業務。這一點沒有改變。我現在要說的一件事是——我的意思是，第四季度，我們有點依賴市場的走勢（1/1）。所以，當然，再保險對於 2024 年來說是一個非常非常好的環境。25年的表現如何？現在確定還為時過早。我們認為這仍然是一個非常好的市場。情況是否會變得更好，以至於我們有能力在再保險中部署更多的資本，我們還不太清楚。所以——這就是答案。我的意思是，對於市場的表現，人們有一些觀望的態度。

But again, what we talked about this morning, the growth opportunities in casualty, in particular, I think are exciting to us. So both insurance and reinsurance, I think we're ready to play. And mortgage is -- don't want to forget about mortgage. I mean this has been a terrific engine for us. No question that the origination market is not as large as we'd like it to be, but that's okay. I mean we've got terrific earnings coming from the in-force book and we're finding other opportunities outside of primary MI in the US, and we're deploying the capital in the right way. So we're very comfortable with the mix right now.

但同樣，我們今天早上所討論的，特別是傷亡方面的成長機會，我認為對我們來說是令人興奮的。因此，無論是保險還是再保險，我認為我們都已經準備好了。抵押貸款是－不要忘記抵押貸款。我的意思是這對我們來說是一個很棒的引擎。毫無疑問，原創市場沒有我們希望的那麼大，但這沒關係。我的意思是，我們從有效書籍中獲得了可觀的收入，並且我們正在美國初級 MI 之外尋找其他機會，並且我們正在以正確的方式部署資本。所以我們現在對這種組合感到非常滿意。

Would it be wrong to paraphrase that reinsurance is better than insurance and mortgage, but that's pending what happens on 1/1?

解釋說再保險比保險和抵押貸款更好，但這要等 1 月 1 日發生的情況，這樣說是錯的嗎？

It's not wrong. I think it's a fair statement. It's better right now. We like to think it's going to stay better, but just don't know quite yet.

這並沒有錯。我認為這是一個公平的說法。現在好多了。我們希望它會保持更好的狀態，但只是還不知道。

It's a higher component -- reinsurance is a higher component of property business. So you have to think on the half of the business is property. So you -- it's high risk, high reward. So I think we have -- we get better high the high return, but it's also high risk, as we saw this quarter.

這是一個更高的組成部分——再保險是房地產業務的一個更高的組成部分。所以你必須想到生意的一半是財產。所以你——這是高風險，高回報。所以我認為我們得到了更好的高回報，但它也是高風險，正如我們本季所看到的那樣。

I think the insurance work is much more heavily geared towards casualty and professional lines. So I think it's an environment that has its own challenges (laughter) but it's a different set of return. I think you have to balance those two. So -- and sometimes, the E in the ROE doesn't do enough of that, I think.

我認為保險工作更多是面向傷亡和專業領域。所以我認為這是一個有其自身挑戰的環境（笑聲），但它是一組不同的回報。我認為你必須平衡這兩者。所以，我認為，有時，交戰規則中的 E 做得還不夠。

And François, you made the comment of the origination market in mortgage isn't quite as strong as you'd like it to be, but also Arch has lowered its market share of new business compared to where it was three years ago or so. If Arch wanted to ramp it up -- is there a possibility of growing that business without improvements in the origination market? Or would that cause pricing and margins to weaken in that business?

François，您評論說抵押貸款的發起市場並不像您希望的那麼強大，而且與三年前或三年前相比，Arch 也降低了新業務的市場份額所以。如果 Arch 想要擴大業務——是否有可能在不改善原創市場的情況下發展該業務？或者這會導致該業務的定價和利潤率下降嗎？

Yes. It's becoming a more kind of homogeneous market, right? So I think the risk of trying to grow market share is just as you said, I think you have to cut prices I think we've built a very resilient, very high-quality book through picking different types of loans to ensure different geographies. I think we -- I mean, we are very comfortable with what we've done, but for us to move from the, call it, 16%, 17% market share and say we want to be at 18%, 19%, 20%. Right now, we just don't see that happening because the market, I think, will just react with us, and it will just push prices down. So I think right now, I mean, I just be surprising for us to grow our market share that significantly in the near term.

是的。它正在變成一個更同質化的市場，對吧？所以我認為試圖擴大市場份額的風險正如你所說，我認為你必須降低價格，我認為我們透過選擇不同類型的貸款來確保不同的地區，已經建立了一本非常有彈性、非常高品質的書。我認為我們——我的意思是，我們對我們所做的事情感到非常滿意，但是我們要從 16%、17% 的市場份額轉向 18%、19%， 20%。目前，我們還沒有看到這種情況發生，因為我認為市場只會對我們做出反應，而且只會壓低價格。所以我認為現在，我的意思是，我對我們在短期內大幅增加市場份額感到驚訝。

Yeah, we're asked this question all the time. And the answer is that we ended up in the worst place. I think status quo, the current status quo based on the -- remember, we're dealing with monoline business. That's all what they have. So I think, ultimately, they're going to defend their book, and we'll end up in a worse place. That has been the analysis that we carried.

是的，我們一直被問到這個問題。答案是我們最終陷入了最糟糕的境地。我認為現狀，目前的現狀是基於——記住，我們正在處理單一業務。這就是他們所擁有的一切。所以我認為，最終他們會捍衛他們的書，而我們最終會陷入更糟糕的境地。這就是我們進行的分析。

Well, thank you very much for all the answers, and I'll let you go to lunch.

嗯，非常感謝您的所有回答，我請您去吃午餐。

Elyse Greenspan, Wells Fargo?

愛麗絲‧格林斯潘，富國銀行？

Hey. Thanks. I'll just shove a few more in before lunch. But my first question is on Hurricane Helene, right? I think you guys said it was 45% of cats. So I calculate that at just over $200 million, so that's like 1.5% to 1.7% market share, given your 12 to 14 -- is that about what you would expect, I guess, for these large type events? And does that share a good frame of reference when thinking about Milton?

嘿。謝謝。午餐前我會再塞一些進去。但我的第一個問題是關於颶風海倫，對嗎？我想你們說的是 45% 的貓。所以我計算出這個數字略高於 2 億美元，所以這相當於 1.5% 到 1.7% 的市場份額，考慮到你的 12 到 14 個——我猜，這就是你對這些大型活動的期望嗎？當思考米爾頓時，這是否有一個很好的參考框架？

I mean, your math is about right, but the Helene is a bit unusual for us. I mean it's a little bit on the elevated side in terms of market share based on some of the accounts we wrote. Again, Milton is different because it's Florida only. So it's -- we have a different mix of business there, a different type of accounts we write. So I would not draw a correlation or an analogy from the Helene, call it, implied market share to what Milton could look like.

我的意思是，你的數學基本上正確，但海倫對我們來說有點不尋常。我的意思是，根據我們寫的一些帳戶，就市場佔有率而言，它有點偏高。同樣，米爾頓是不同的，因為它只是佛羅裡達州。所以，我們在那裡有不同的業務組合，我們寫的帳戶類型也不同。因此，我不會將海倫（Helene）隱含的市場份額與米爾頓（Milton）的外觀進行關聯或類比。

Okay. That's helpful. And then my second one, I guess, is a follow-up on reserves, right? We had another company this morning that kind of flagged they're kind of going to take an in-depth review and there might be some movement with their fourth quarter review. It sounds like from earlier questions that you guys really haven't seen like change in loss trends or actual versus expected in the third quarter versus later in the year. But is there anything, I guess, that you're concerned about or anything that's come up with the quarterly reviews that you guys are paying particular attention will be going to the end of year review?

好的。這很有幫助。然後我想我的第二個是儲備金的後續行動，對嗎？今天早上，我們有另一家公司表示他們將進行深入審查，他們的第四季審查可能會發生一些變化。從先前的問題來看，你們確實沒有看到第三季與今年稍後的損失趨勢或實際與預期的變化。但我想，有什麼是你們關心的，或者你們特別關注的季度審查中出現的任何事情都會進入年終審查嗎？

There's nothing unusual. I mean it's something we look at all the time. The trends are relatively stable. I mean we have views going way back that the loss trends that we were seeing in the market were a bit optimistic. So we've always taken a longer-term view of trends, and we review those annually at a minimum, sometimes some twice a year.

沒有什麼不尋常的。我的意思是這是我們一直在關注的事情。趨勢相對穩定。我的意思是，我們很久以前就認為我們在市場上看到的損失趨勢有點樂觀。因此，我們總是以更長遠的眼光來看待趨勢，並且我們至少每年審查一次，有時每年兩次。

But yeah, really nothing that stands out, that's, I'd say, unusual or that we're overly concerned with. I mean that's the standard kind of themes that we've been talking about for quite some time.

但是，是的，確實沒有什麼突出的，我想說的是，不尋常的或我們過度關心的。我的意思是，這是我們已經討論了一段時間的標準主題。

And then I might just shove one last one in there. You guys have an upcoming Investor Day in a couple of weeks. Is this -- are you going to expecting to use this to lay out bigger strategy, financial targets, something on capital, I guess. Can you just give us a little bit of a preview of what you expect to talk to us about in a few weeks?

然後我可能會把最後一顆塞進去。幾週後你們將迎來投資者日。我想，你是否會期望用它來制定更大的策略、財務目標、資本方面的東西？您能否向我們簡單介紹一下您希望在幾週內與我們討論的內容？

We're just miss seeing you guys in person. So that's why we schedule this. But no, I wouldn't expect anything really unusual from the upcoming Investor Day. We -- you've known this for a while, the strategy remains the same. Nicolas will obviously be focal point. So we'll make sure everybody gets to hear a bit more from how he want to shape the company going forward, but I would not message or think that there's anything unusual or kind of a new revelation that you should expect to hear from us in a couple of weeks.

我們只是想念見到你們本人。這就是我們安排這個的原因。但不，我不認為即將到來的投資者日會出現任何不尋常的事情。我們——你已經知道這一點有一段時間了，策略保持不變。尼古拉斯顯然將成為焦點。因此，我們將確保每個人都能聽到更多關於他希望如何塑造公司未來發展的信息，但我不會發訊息或認為您應該期望從我們這裡聽到任何不尋常或新的啟示。星期。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Nicolas Papadopoulo for closing remarks.

現在請尼可拉斯‧帕帕多普洛先生致閉幕詞。

Yes. So there's not any more questions. So this will conclude our presentation today. And thank you for your questions, and we see you next quarter.

是的。所以沒有更多的問題了。我們今天的演講到此結束。感謝您提出問題，我們下季見。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This concludes the program. You may all disconnect.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。程式到此結束。你們都可以斷開連線。