Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLO) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the First Quarter 2019 Arch Capital Group Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call may be recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 Arch Capital Group 2019 年第一季度收益電話會議。（操作員說明）提醒一下，這個電話會議可能會被錄音。

Before the company gets started with this update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied. For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed by the company with the SEC from time to time.

在公司開始發布此更新之前，管理層希望首先提醒大家，今天新聞稿中的某些聲明和本次電話會議上討論的某些聲明可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於管理層當前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。

Additionally, certain statements contained in the call of that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The company intends the forward-looking statements in the call to be subject to the Safe Harbor created, thereby.

此外，電話中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述是 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。公司打算在電話中的前瞻性陳述受制於由此創建的安全港。

Management also will make reference to some non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliation to GAAP and definition of operating income can be found in the company's current report on Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website.

管理層還將參考一些非 GAAP 財務業績指標。與 GAAP 的對賬和營業收入的定義可以在公司昨天提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格的當前報告中找到，該報告包含公司的收益新聞稿，可在公司網站上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Marc Grandisson; and Mr. François Morin. Sirs, you may begin.

我現在想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，Marc Grandisson 先生；和 François Morin 先生。先生們，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Crystal, and good morning to you, all. We have a good start to the year as Arch grew book value per share by 7.4% to $23.12 at March 31 and generated operating earnings of $0.67 per share due to strong underwriting and investment results in the first quarter of 2019.

謝謝你，Crystal，大家早上好。我們今年開局良好，截至 3 月 31 日，Arch 的每股賬面價值增長了 7.4% 至 23.12 美元，並且由於 2019 年第一季度強勁的承銷和投資業績而產生了每股 0.67 美元的營業利潤。

As mentioned on our call last quarter, we continue to see modest upward rate movement in property and select casualty lines, along with reductions in ceding commissions paid by our reinsurance units.

正如我們在上個季度的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們繼續看到財產險和精選意外險險種的利率出現適度上升，同時我們的再保險部門支付的分保佣金也有所減少。

Our mortgage insurance, or MI, group continues to operate in a market characterized by historically strong credit conditions and conservative lending standards. For Arch, this is an underwriting market where selection and segmentation remains key to generating favorable results. It is not a one-size-fits-all market by any means.

我們的抵押貸款保險 (MI) 集團繼續在以歷史上強勁的信貸條件和保守的貸款標準為特徵的市場中運營。對於 Arch 而言，這是一個承保市場，選擇和細分仍然是產生良好結果的關鍵。無論如何，這都不是一個放之四海而皆準的市場。

On the one hand, we believe that the modest improvements in the property casualty markets reflect broader economic growth, particularly in the United States. While on the other hand, we see inconsistent evidence of increased discipline by underwriters.

一方面，我們認為財產險市場的適度改善反映了更廣泛的經濟增長，尤其是在美國。另一方面，我們看到承銷商加強紀律的不一致證據。

We can sum up our review of current market conditions with 2 key virtues that describes how we operate at Arch, prudence and patience. Prudence has been a good adviser to us. In our P&C segments, rate changes in the quarter for our insurance group has been positive, but raging in any 1 line from minus 5% to plus 8%, averaging about plus 2.3%. Considering that insurance loss trend or claim inflation typically runs about 200 bps above the CPI, we remain prudent in setting our loss picks and allocating additional capital in any single line given the uncertainty of future loss cost.

我們可以用 2 個描述我們如何在 Arch 運營的關鍵美德，審慎和耐心來總結我們對當前市場狀況的回顧。普魯登斯一直是我們的良師益友。在我們的財產和意外險領域，本季度我們保險集團的費率變化一直是積極的，但在任何一條線上都從負 5% 到正 8% 不等，平均約為正 2.3%。考慮到保險損失趨勢或索賠通脹通常比 CPI 高出約 200 個基點，鑑於未來損失成本的不確定性，我們在設定損失選擇和在任何單一險種上配置額外資本時仍然保持謹慎。

Prudence in our reserving process dictates that we maintain an appropriate margin for error because reserving errors can lead to pricing errors. We saw modest growth in the first quarter of 2019 in our insurance group as net written premium increased 8% due in part to the U.K. acquisition we mentioned last quarter. The balance of the growth was from a combination of rate and new opportunities in short and medium tail lines.

我們在預訂過程中的謹慎性要求我們保持適當的錯誤餘地，因為預訂錯誤可能導致定價錯誤。我們在 2019 年第一季度看到我們保險集團的溫和增長，因為淨承保保費增長了 8%，部分原因是我們上個季度提到的英國收購。增長的平衡來自中短尾線的利率和新機會的組合。

In typical Arch fashion, we remain focused on risk-adjusted returns and patience means that we seek evidence of acceptable margin improvement even as the market experiences some pull-back in capacity such as in the larger commoditized lines and also within some E&S markets that you have heard about on other calls.

在典型的 Arch 時尚中，我們仍然專注於風險調整後的回報和耐心意味著我們尋求可接受的利潤率改善的證據，即使市場經歷了一些容量回落，例如在較大的商品化生產線以及您在某些 E&S 市場中在其他電話中聽說過。

Within our reinsurance group, property cat exposed rates are moving up after absorbing severe industry-wide catastrophe losses these past 2 years. These losses have caused some dislocation in capacity across the industry and have paved the way for new opportunities, which our underwriting teams were able to participate in. However, we remain focused on the absolute level of risk-adjusted rates and selective in our approach to cat exposed business.

在我們的再保險集團中，在過去 2 年吸收了全行業的嚴重巨災損失後，財產巨災風險敞口率正在上升。這些損失導致整個行業的產能錯位，並為我們的承保團隊能夠參與的新機會鋪平了道路。然而，我們仍然關注風險調整後利率的絕對水平，並在我們對巨災風險敞口業務的處理方法上有選擇性。

Now turning to our MI segment. Overall, the underwriting environment remains very attractive. Growth in our insurance in force is producing increases in earned premium and contributing to a future stream of earnings that is strong and predictable.

現在轉向我們的 MI 部分。總體而言，承銷環境仍然非常有吸引力。我們現有保險業務的增長帶來了已賺保費的增長，並為未來強勁且可預測的收益流做出了貢獻。

In MI, the key underwriting characteristics that drive earnings are credit quality and the economy, which, more than pricing, drive ultimate performance. Therefore, even as pricing has become more competitive, credit quality remains excellent and key macroeconomic factors are very good, which has resulted in very strong risk-adjusted returns. As you may know, in MI, from an accounting standpoint, these returns will be reflected in earnings over several years.

在 MI 中，推動收益的關鍵承保特徵是信用質量和經濟，這比定價更能推動最終業績。因此，即使定價變得更具競爭力，信貸質量仍然出色，關鍵的宏觀經濟因素非常好，這導致了非常強勁的風險調整後回報。您可能知道，在 MI，從會計的角度來看，這些回報將反映在幾年的收益中。

For the first quarter of 2019, our U.S. MI new insurance written, or NIW, was $11.2 billion, down about 2% from the same quarter a year ago. While NIW reflect business written in a quarter, the more relevant indicator of insurance earnings is insurance in force, which Arch, MI US, grew to $277 billion at the end of March of 2019.

2019 年第一季度，我們在美國的 MI 新承保保額 (NIW) 為 112 億美元，比去年同期下降約 2%。雖然 NIW 反映了一個季度的業務，但保險收入的更相關指標是有效保險，美國密歇根州 Arch 的有效保險在 2019 年 3 月底增長到 2770 億美元。

As with all our business units in MI, we are focused on returns rather than market share, and we intend to remain disciplined and agile. We believe that our long experience with a RateStar and our insurance linked notes known as Bellemeade securities provide Arch a competitive advantage with respect to risk management, our interface with lenders and our upfront risk selection.

與我們在 MI 的所有業務部門一樣，我們關注的是回報而不是市場份額，我們打算保持紀律和敏捷。我們相信，我們在 RateStar 和被稱為 Bellemeade 證券的保險掛鉤票據方面的長期經驗為 Arch 在風險管理、我們與貸方的接口以及我們的前期風險選擇方面提供了競爭優勢。

As I alluded to earlier, our key risk barometers are very at healthy levels, credit quality as indicated by FICO scores remained strong across our in-force book with a weighted average score of 743. Our combined ratio in our MI segment remains exceptional at 25.6% in the first quarter, which is substantially better than the long-term industry average of the mid- to high 40s. With respect to our investment operations, higher yields available in the financial markets produced excellent results on both a yield and total return basis.

正如我之前提到的，我們的主要風險晴雨表處於非常健康的水平，FICO 分數表明的信用質量在我們的有效賬簿中保持強勁，加權平均分數為 743。我們在 MI 部門的綜合比率在第一季度仍然非常出色，為 25.6%，遠高於 40 年代中高水平的長期行業平均水平。關於我們的投資業務，金融市場上更高的收益率在收益率和總回報率方面都產生了極好的結果。

Turning briefly now to risk management. For the past few years and continuing into 2019, our property cat exposures remain at historically low levels with our 1-in-250-year peak zone at about 4% of tangible common equity at April 1. In our MI segment, our issuance of Bellemeade securities continue to pace with our second issue this year that closed yesterday and provide [$621 million] (corrected by the company after the call) of insurance indemnity on more than $35 billion of insurance in force. We have issued a $3.5 billion of Bellemeade securities over the past 4 years, which remains an important part of our risk management capability. As of today, Bellemeade securities provide protection on more than 90% of our existing insurance in force.

現在簡要地談談風險管理。在過去幾年並持續到 2019 年，我們的房地產巨災風險敞口保持在歷史低位，4 月 1 日我們的 250 年峰值區域約為有形普通股的 4%。在我們的 MI 部門，我們發行的Bellemeade 證券繼續推進我們今年第二期的發行，該發行於昨天結束，並為超過 350 億美元的有效保險提供 [6.21 億美元]（公司在電話會議後更正）的保險賠償。我們在過去 4 年中發行了 35 億美元的 Bellemeade 證券，這仍然是我們風險管理能力的重要組成部分。截至今天，Bellemeade 證券為我們 90% 以上的現有有效保險提供保護。

With regards to PMIERs, as of March 31, 2019, Arch MI's U.S. sufficiency ratio was 146% of the GSE capital requirements known as the PMIERs, as I mentioned.

關於 PMIER，截至 2019 年 3 月 31 日，Arch MI 在美國的充足率是 GSE 資本要求（稱為 PMIER）的 146%，正如我提到的。

With that in mind and with that, I will turn it over to François now to provide you more specifics on our quarterly results. François?

考慮到這一點，我現在將把它交給弗朗索瓦，為您提供有關我們季度業績的更多細節。弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Marc, and good morning to all. Before I give you some comments and observations on our results for the first quarter, I wanted to remind you that consistent with prior practice, these comments are on a core basis, which corresponds to Arch's financial results, excluding the Other segment, i.e., the operations of Watford Holdings Ltd. In our filings, the term consolidated includes Watford.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好。在我對第一季度的業績發表一些評論和觀察之前，我想提醒您，與以往的做法一致，這些評論是基於核心基礎的，對應於 Arch 的財務業績，不包括其他部分，即沃特福德控股有限公司的運營在我們的文件中，合併一詞包括沃特福德。

As you know, Watford's common shares began trading on the NASDAQ Global select market on March 28, 2019. While this event now provides a market price on the value of our ownership in Watford, it does not impact the presentation of our financial statements or any of our disclosures, which have remained unchanged since Watford's formation in 2014.

如您所知，沃特福德的普通股於 2019 年 3 月 28 日開始在納斯達克全球精選市場交易。雖然這一事件現在提供了我們在沃特福德所有權價值的市場價格，但它不會影響我們財務報表的呈現或我們的任何披露，自沃特福德於 2014 年成立以來一直保持不變。

After-tax operating income for the quarter was $275.9 million, which translates to an annualized 12.3% operating return on average common equity and $0.67 per share. Book value per share was $23.12 at March 31, a 7.4% increase from last quarter and a 13.3% increase from 1 year ago. This result reflects the effective strong contributions from both our underwriting operations and our investment portfolio.

本季度稅後營業收入為 2.759 億美元，平均普通股的年化營業回報率為 12.3%，每股收益為 0.67 美元。截至 3 月 31 日，每股賬面價值為 23.12 美元，比上一季度增長 7.4%，比一年前增長 13.3%。這一結果反映了我們的承銷業務和投資組合的有效強大貢獻。

Moving on to underwriting results. Losses from 2019 catastrophic events in the first quarter net of reinsurance recoverables and reinstatement premiums stood at $7.9 million or 0.6 combined ratio points. These losses were nearly all observed in the results of our reinsurance segment, which were impacted by a handful of minor events across the globe.

繼續承保結果。第一季度 2019 年災難性事件的損失扣除再保險可收回和恢復保費後為 790 萬美元或 0.6 個綜合比率點。這些損失幾乎全部出現在我們的再保險部門的業績中，該部門受到全球一些小事件的影響。

As for prior period, net loss reserve development, we recognized approximately $36.7 million of favorable development in the first quarter net of related adjustments or 3.0 combined ratio points compared to 4.6 combined ratio points in the first quarter of 2018. Both the insurance and the mortgage segments experienced favorable developments at $1.7 million and $36.6 million, respectively.

至於前期，淨虧損準備金發展，我們在第一季度確認了約 3670 萬美元的有利發展，扣除相關調整或 3.0 個綜合比率點，而 2018 年第一季度為 4.6 個綜合比率點。保險和抵押貸款部門分別取得了 170 萬美元和 3660 萬美元的有利發展。

The reinsurance segment experienced a minor amount of approximately $1.6 million of adverse development, including $16 million related to Typhoon Jebi. The increase with this event reflects updated the loss information received from cedants and additional industry data.

再保險部門經歷了約 160 萬美元的少量不利發展，其中包括與颱風傑比相關的 1600 萬美元。此事件的增加反映了從分保人和其他行業數據收到的更新的損失信息。

The mortgage segment benefited from significant favorable development in our first lien portfolio where cure rates observed in recent quarters continued to be materially better than long-term averages and expectations.

抵押貸款部門受益於我們的第一留置權投資組合的顯著有利發展，最近幾個季度觀察到的治愈率繼續明顯好於長期平均水平和預期。

The insurance segment's accident quarter combined ratio, excluding cats was 100.2%, 150 basis points higher than for the same period 1 year ago. The year-over-year comparison for the insurance segment is affected by 2 notable items. First, as we mentioned on our previous call, our operating expense ratio was impacted by the shift in the timing of share-based compensation from the second quarter to the first quarter. This shift increased the first quarter expense ratio for the segment by approximately 94 basis points relative to 1 year ago.

保險部門的事故季度綜合比率（不包括貓）為 100.2%，比一年前同期高 150 個基點。保險部門的同比比較受到 2 個值得注意的項目的影響。首先，正如我們在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們的營業費用比率受到基於股份的薪酬時間從第二季度到第一季度的轉變的影響。與一年前相比，這一轉變使該部門第一季度的費用率增加了約 94 個基點。

Second, we continue to invest in our insurance operations, including the integration of recent acquisitions in the U.S. and the U.K. The most notable impact to our expense ratio this quarter relates to our U.K. regional book, who's operating expenses added 110 basis points to our overall expense ratio for this segment. As mentioned in the earnings release, we did not acquire an unearned premium portfolio with this acquisition and as a result, the expense ratio will remain higher than the long-term run rate until the associated earned premium reaches a steady-state. Overall, the underlying performance of our insurance segment showed improvements in the quarter, mostly due to lower levels of attritional losses and acquisition expenses.

其次，我們繼續投資於我們的保險業務，包括整合最近在美國和英國的收購。本季度對我們費用比率的最顯著影響與我們的英國區域賬簿有關，其運營費用使我們的整體費用增加了 110 個基點該部分的費用比率。正如收益發布中提到的，我們沒有通過此次收購獲得未賺取的保費投資組合，因此，在相關的賺取保費達到穩定狀態之前，費用比率將保持高於長期運行率。總體而言，我們保險部門的基本業績在本季度有所改善，這主要是由於較低水平的自然損耗和收購費用。

The reinsurance segment accident quarter combined ratio, excluding cats stood at 92.4% compared to 93.4% on the same basis 1 year ago. As we mentioned on prior calls, we tend to look at trailing 12-month analyses in order to assess the ongoing performance of our segments given the inherent volatility in the business that can emerge from quarter-to-quarter.

再保險部門事故季度綜合比率（不包括巨災）為 92.4%，而一年前為 93.4%。正如我們在之前的電話會議上提到的那樣，我們傾向於查看過去 12 個月的分析，以評估我們細分市場的持續表現，因為業務可能會在每個季度之間出現內在波動。

The year-over-year comparison for the reinsurance segment is affected by the presence of a $10.2 million premium retroactive reinsurance transaction we entered into this quarter, which contains sufficient risk transfer for insurance accounting treatment under GAAP. While the overall combined ratio for this segment was basically unaffected, the impact of the transaction to each of the loss and expense ratio components was more observable with the resulting increase of a 90 basis points to the loss ratio and a decrease of 80 basis points to the expense ratio. Overall, we were able to reduce or expense ratio by approximately 400 basis points, mostly as a result of the growth in earned premium since the same quarter 1 year ago, the retroactive reinsurance transaction just mentioned and the shift in business mix. Once we adjust for these variations, the underlying performance of our reinsurance segment remained stable this quarter.

再保險部門的同比比較受到我們本季度進行的 1,020 萬美元保費追溯再保險交易的影響，其中包含足夠的風險轉移以根據 GAAP 進行保險會計處理。雖然該分部的整體綜合比率基本不受影響，但交易對損失率和費用率各部分的影響更為明顯，導致損失率增加 90 個基點，損失率減少 80 個基點費用比率。總體而言，我們能夠將費用比率降低約 400 個基點，這主要是由於自一年前同一季度以來已賺保費的增長、剛才提到的追溯再保險交易以及業務組合的轉變。一旦我們針對這些變化進行調整，本季度我們的再保險部門的基本表現就保持穩定。

The mortgage segment accident in quarter combined ratio improved by 650 basis points on the first quarter of last year as a result of continued strong underlying performance of the book, particularly within our U.S. primary MI operations. The calendar quarter loss ratio of 3.5% compares favorably to the 15.5% in the same quarter of 2018 due to substantially lower delinquency rates. However, the difference is also attributable to increased favorable prior year development, which was approximately 670 basis points higher than last year. The expense ratio was 22.1% lower by 120 basis points than in the same period 1 year ago as a result of the higher level of earned premiums.

由於賬面基礎表現持續強勁，特別是在我們美國主要的 MI 業務中，抵押貸款部門的季度合併比率比去年第一季度提高了 650 個基點。由於拖欠率大幅降低，日曆季度的損失率為 3.5%，優於 2018 年同期的 15.5%。然而，差異也歸因於去年有利的發展增加，比去年高出約 670 個基點。由於已賺保費水平較高，費用率比一年前同期下降 22.1% 120 個基點。

Total investment return for the quarter was a positive 270 basis points on the U.S. dollar basis and a positive 348 basis points on a local currency basis. Contributing to this result was our decision to extend our portfolio duration slightly during the second half of 2018 combined with the defensive high-quality position of our fixed-income portfolio and the solid performance of our equity portfolio consistent with the recovery in global financial markets. The repositioning of our portfolio during 2018 combined with the reinvestment of shorter maturity bonds of higher yields, generated higher investment income year-over-year. We also benefited from higher-than-usual investment income from investment of funds in the quarter.

本季度的總投資回報率按美元計算為正 270 個基點，按當地貨幣計算為正 348 個基點。促成這一結果的原因是我們決定在 2018 年下半年略微延長我們的投資組合久期，加上我們固定收益投資組合的防禦性高質量頭寸以及我們股票投資組合的穩健表現與全球金融市場的複蘇相一致。2018 年我們投資組合的重新定位，加上對收益率較高的較短期限債券的再投資，產生了同比更高的投資收益。我們還受益於本季度來自基金投資的高於往常的投資收益。

The corporate effective tax rate in the quarter on pretax operating income was 13.1%, and reflects the geographic mix of our pretax income and a 50 basis point benefit from discrete tax items in the quarter. As a result, the effects of tax rate on pretax operating income, excluding discrete items was 13.6% this quarter, higher than the 10.4% rate from the same quarter last year.

本季度稅前營業收入的企業有效稅率為 13.1%，反映了我們稅前收入的地域組合以及本季度離散稅項帶來的 50 個基點收益。因此，本季度稅率對不包括離散項目的稅前營業收入的影響為 13.6%，高於去年同期的 10.4%。

At this time, we believe it's still reasonable to expect that the effective tax rate on operating income will be the range of 11% to 14% for the full year. As always, the effective tax rate could vary depending on the level and location of income or loss and varying tax rates in each jurisdiction.

目前，我們認為預計全年營業收入的有效稅率將在 11% 至 14% 的範圍內仍然是合理的。與往常一樣，實際稅率可能因收入或損失的水平和地點以及每個司法管轄區的不同稅率而異。

With respect to capital management, we repurchased approximately 111,000 shares at an average price of $25.96 per share, and an aggregate cost of $2.9 million under our Rule 10b5 plan that we implemented during this quarter's closed window period. Our remaining authorization, which expires in December 2019, stood at $161 million at March 31. Our debt-to-capital ratio stood at 14.6% at quarter end and debt plus preferred to total capital ratio was 21.2%, down 130 basis points from year-end 2018.

在資本管理方面，我們以每股 25.96 美元的平均價格回購了大約 111,000 股股票，根據我們在本季度的封閉窗口期內實施的規則 10b5 計劃，總成本為 290 萬美元。我們的剩餘授權於 2019 年 12 月到期，截至 3 月 31 日為 1.61 億美元。截至季度末，我們的債務資本比率為 14.6%，債務加優先股佔總資本的比率為 21.2%，比 2018 年底下降 130 個基點。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

通過這些介紹性評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Josh Shanker from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Josh Shanker。

Marc, I appreciate your comments about CPI and loss cost trends. You know look, I think at the very time you make a change in your outlook, it might be the wrong time. But if you look at the past few years, what has been the loss cost trend? And what year you're comfortable making that statement about? What years were too green and what years can you say, "Yes, we know where the loss cost was in, say, 2015?"

馬克，感謝您對 CPI 和損失成本趨勢的評論。你知道的，我認為在你改變你的觀點的時候，可能是錯誤的時間。但如果你看看過去幾年，損失成本趨勢如何？您願意就哪一年發表該聲明？哪些年份太綠了，哪些年份你可以說，“是的，我們知道損失成本在哪裡，比如 2015 年？”

I think, yes. So you have to -- it takes about 3 to 4 years to redevelop, and then we're talking about primarily business to really get a good sense of the CPI. So I think -- if you look at the CPI, I mean, we know what it is, 1.8, 1.7, 1.9, that range has been consistent for the 2 to 3 years. The pickup in the delta that talk I about the claim inflation spread above that CPI, it takes 2 to 3 years. So we have some good sense for probably 2015 -- 2014, 2015, 2016, we still have things developing for more recent underwriting years. And I would add that it's even more problematic or more difficult to fully assess when you run specialty line of business and when you have, of course, excess policies.

我想是的。所以你必須——重新開發需要大約 3 到 4 年的時間，然後我們主要談論的是業務，以真正了解 CPI。所以我認為——如果你看一下 CPI，我的意思是，我們知道它是什麼，1.8、1.7、1.9，這個範圍在 2 到 3 年內一直保持一致。三角洲的回升是關於索賠通脹高於該 CPI 的利差，需要 2 到 3 年的時間。因此，我們可能對 2015 年——2014 年、2015 年、2016 年有一些好感，我們在最近的承銷年中仍有一些發展。我要補充一點，當你經營專業業務線，當然，當你有過多的政策時，全面評估會更有問題或更困難。

Generally speaking, was '15, '16 about 200 basis point above the loss cost -- above CPI?

一般而言，'15、'16 是否比損失成本高出約 200 個基點 - 高於 CPI？

It was a bit above that, I believe. If I -- the last time I checked the numbers, about 6 months ago, we had 150 bps above the CPI in trend inflation from '09 to about 2012, and I think it since then picked up. So I'm trying to look at the long-term average, it's very hard to pin down the exact numbers.

我相信它比那個高一點。如果我 - 大約 6 個月前我最後一次檢查這些數字，從 09 年到 2012 年左右，我們的趨勢通貨膨脹率比 CPI 高 150 個基點，我認為從那以後它開始回升。所以我試圖查看長期平均值，很難確定確切的數字。

I hope I can get 2.5 questions in, but they're somewhat related. I wanted to understand the structure of your just -- the exposure. I don't know how much you initially picked for, but you're not a big Japan player, and you're not a huge property cat player. So I'm just trying to figure out what happened to the contract that you paid more, obviously, the picks went up there. And two, to what extent are higher insurance costs, particularly on the Japan renewals that just passed, and then when you get to Florida and the Gulf in the mid-year? To what extent are the pricing increases we're seeing in property going to get somewhat swallowed by higher reinsurance costs?

我希望我能得到 2.5 個問題，但它們有些相關。我想了解你的結構——曝光。我不知道你最初選擇了多少，但你不是一個大日本玩家，你也不是一個巨大的財產貓玩家。所以我只是想弄清楚你支付更多的合同發生了什麼，顯然，選秀權上升了。第二，保險費用增加到什麼程度，特別是剛剛通過的日本續保，以及年中到達佛羅里達和墨西哥灣時的保險費用？我們在房地產中看到的價格上漲在多大程度上會被更高的再保險成本吞噬？

Okay. So that's about 3.5 questions, but I'll start and take them one at a time. So first one on Jebi. You're quite right, our exposure has been on the wait for quite a while. We had actually increased our exposure to quake after the Tohoku earthquake but on the wind side, you're right, we have been more careful. And this one is, I think the small amount of limits out there, mostly on the excess of loss basis. I mean, as you know, Japan also buys somewhat on a combined basis, but most of our exposure is on the wind and flood only still to this day. And really, the initial numbers came in at $3 billion, as you know. Developed to about $12.5 billion to $13 billion, we believe, as we speak. What was missed by our ceding company, not only by the reinsurance community was the business interruption and contingent BI loss exposures that were in there and in exactly the location where Jebi hit and a lot of it had to do with semiconductor. That creates a lot of issues come a lot more issues from the BI and CBI perspective, which was not properly reflected when you went through the path of the storm and modeled it through, you know, your existing portfolio exposure. And the ceding company had done the same thing, did not see it happen, did not see this developing and it just so happen that it created -- it was not fully appreciated by most people, by the whole market, frankly. So this is really where we are right now with Jebi.

好的。所以這是大約 3.5 個問題，但我會開始並一次回答一個問題。所以第一個關於 Jebi。你說得很對，我們的曝光已經等待了很長一段時間。在東北地震之後，我們實際上增加了地震風險，但在風方面，你是對的，我們更加小心。而這個，我認為那裡的限制很少，主要是在超額損失的基礎上。我的意思是，如你所知，日本也在綜合基礎上進行了一些購買，但直到今天，我們的大部分風險敞口仍然是風和洪水。確實，如您所知，最初的數字是 30 億美元。我們相信，就在我們說話的時候，已經發展到大約 125 億到 130 億美元。我們的分保公司（不僅是再保險界）錯過的是業務中斷和或有 BI 損失風險，這些風險正是 Jebi 襲擊的地點，其中很多與半導體有關。從 BI 和 CBI 的角度來看，這會帶來很多問題，當你經歷風暴的路徑並通過你現有的投資組合敞口對其進行建模時，這些問題並沒有得到正確反映。轉讓公司也做了同樣的事情，沒有看到它發生，沒有看到這種發展，它恰好創造了——坦率地說，它沒有得到大多數人、整個市場的充分讚賞。所以這就是我們現在與 Jebi 的關係。

So you talked about price increase. We've had -- we've seen some price increase in April 1, as you know, in Japan, but we -- with the price increase that we saw brought us back to about 20 -- the rate level in 2014. So it was a lot more subdued and a lot more tame than they would have hoped for. Based on those that indicator, Josh, knowing us, that we have increased somewhat but did not go significant increase. We are still trying to be patient in seeing further rate changes.

所以你談到了價格上漲。正如你所知，我們在 4 月 1 日看到了一些價格上漲，但是我們看到價格上漲使我們回到了 20 左右——2014 年的利率水平。因此，它比他們希望的要柔和得多，也溫順得多。基於這些指標，Josh 了解我們，我們有所增加但沒有顯著增加。我們仍在努力耐心等待進一步的利率變化。

As we talk about Florida, the initial discussions are that the demands are going to be stable, but the supply of reinsurance is taking a pause. We don't know yet where it's going to go but the initial signs is that it's taking a pause, which should mean an interesting renewal from a reinsurance provider perspective. Did I answer the 3.5?

當我們談論佛羅里達州時，最初的討論是需求將保持穩定，但再保險的供應正在暫停。我們還不知道它將走向何方，但初步跡象表明它正在暫停，從再保險提供商的角度來看，這應該意味著有趣的續約。我回答了3.5嗎？

Yes. But I was more interested in your outwards costs more than your inwards opportunity. As you paid more for reinsurance, does that limit the extent of these rate increases we're seeing in property lines?

是的。但我對你的外在成本更感興趣，而不是你的內在機會。隨著您為再保險支付更多費用，這是否會限制我們在財產險中看到的這些費率上漲的幅度？

Well, no, because the big reinsurance purchase that we would do would be on the reinsurance side. And we don't -- we do not have a significant Florida on these kinds of exposures that would have created the loss into a layer. So we have a very different exposure from our cat perspective. So it doesn't really factor itself into our pricing. It's not a significant change.

嗯，不，因為我們會做的大筆再保險購買將在再保險方面。而且我們沒有 - 我們沒有在這些類型的曝光中擁有重要的佛羅里達州，這會造成一層損失。因此，從貓的角度來看，我們的曝光度非常不同。所以它並沒有真正影響我們的定價。這不是一個重大變化。

Our next question comes from Amit Kumar from Buckingham Research.

我們的下一個問題來自白金漢研究中心的 Amit Kumar。

Maybe 2 questions. The first one is a follow-up on the Jedi question. Can you also talk about, I guess, what's your Trami exposure? And also talk about if there were any aviation losses in the attritional loss ratio?

也許2個問題。第一個是對 Jedi 問題的跟進。你能不能也談談，我想，你對 Trami 的接觸是什麼？還要說說損耗率有沒有航空損失？

Well, first of all, our Trami exposure is de minimis, we have basically none. And the question in aviation is not something we're a big participant in, so it's also de minimis in terms of aviation loss is part of the attritional loss.

好吧，首先，我們的 Trami 曝光是微乎其微的，我們基本上沒有。航空問題不是我們的主要參與者，因此就航空損失而言，它也是微不足道的，是自然減員損失的一部分。

Got it. That's helpful. The other question. I guess, the only other question I have is going back to Josh's question. There is this sort of debated merging between E&S pricing and commercial pricing and Evan talked about this a lot earlier today. Can you maybe just spend some time, you gave us a range of a minus 5% to plus 8%, and then that came out to plus 2.3%. Can you just talk about how you're feeling about pricing versus loss cost trends in some of those lines? And what would be the lines where we are still trying to get rate increases? And how should we think about 2019? Is time sort of sharpen our pencils and think about margin expansion from here or would that be premature?

知道了。這很有幫助。另一個問題。我想，我唯一的其他問題就是回到 Josh 的問題。E&S 定價和商業定價之間存在這種有爭議的合併，埃文今天早些時候談到了這個問題。你能不能花點時間，你給了我們一個負 5% 到正 8% 的範圍，然後結果是正 2.3%。你能談談你對其中一些線路的定價與損失成本趨勢的看法嗎？我們仍在努力提高利率的路線是什麼？我們應該如何看待 2019 年？時間是否會削尖我們的鉛筆並考慮從這裡開始擴大利潤率還是為時過早？

I think the best answer I can give you of what we think of where the margins are is if you look at where we grew premium in this quarter. That will give you a great indication as to what our teams think in terms of -- as with margin. Margin expansion is one thing, but it doesn't mean it's necessarily enough to get the returns. So we've seen enough margin expansion in a few lines that we grew our exposure. What was the second part of your question again?

我認為如果你看看我們在本季度的保費增長情況，我能給你的最好答案就是我們對利潤率的看法。這將使您很好地了解我們的團隊在考慮利潤方面的想法。保證金擴張是一回事，但這並不意味著它就一定足以獲得回報。因此，我們在幾行中看到了足夠的利潤率擴張，從而增加了我們的風險敞口。你問題的第二部分又是什麼？

In terms of either some of those lines and the rate adequacy in those lines versus loss cost trends?

就其中一些線路以及這些線路中的費率充足性與損失成本趨勢而言？

Yes. The ones that we grew are on a shorter-tail sign, mostly -- most of the growth has been on the shorter-tail lines. And the reason it's a little bit more -- it's a bit easier to do so because the lost costs are a little bit easier to pin down. You have a loss -- less uncertainty about ultimate loss cost on the shorter-tail lines. So that means that if you think you are perceived -- you're perceiving a margin of safety of rate above loss trend of x, you more certain you're going to get this. In other lines of business such as E&S casualty, we, like others, have seen some pick up in pricing there, but there's a lot more uncertainty there in terms of what the gap between loss cost and rate increase is. And I would argue, some of them in some lines of business, even though would look to have like a 300 pickup, let's say, in margin they probably need a bit more than that to really make a big allocation of capital from our perspective. So it's really a transition and really an incremental marketplace.

是的。我們種植的那些都在短尾標誌上，大部分 - 大部分增長都在短尾線上。而且它多一點的原因 - 這樣做更容易一些，因為損失的成本更容易確定。你有損失——短尾線最終損失成本的不確定性較小。所以這意味著，如果你認為你被認為是——你認為利率的安全邊際高於 x 的損失趨勢，你就更確定你會得到這個。在 E&S 傷亡等其他業務領域，我們和其他人一樣，看到那裡的定價有所回升，但就損失成本和費率增長之間的差距而言，存在更多的不確定性。我會爭辯說，他們中的一些人在某些業務領域，即使看起來有 300 個皮卡，比方說，從我們的角度來看，他們可能需要更多的利潤才能真正進行大量資本配置。所以這真的是一個過渡，也是一個真正的增量市場。

One thing I'll add to that, just quickly, on the London market, as you know, is going through a period of dislocation. We benefit from that, we're not huge players in London, but we have a meaningful participation in both on the syndicate and the company side. Who knows whether that is going to be sustainable for the rest of 2019 and into 2020. But certainly, as a Marc alluded to, some of the growth we saw in the premiums we wrote in Q1 are specifically related to opportunities in London, in particular.

如你所知，我要補充的一件事是，倫敦市場正在經歷一段混亂時期。我們從中受益，我們在倫敦不是大玩家，但我們在辛迪加和公司方面都有有意義的參與。誰知道這在 2019 年剩餘時間和 2020 年是否會持續下去。但可以肯定的是，正如 Marc 所暗示的那樣，我們在第一季度保費中看到的一些增長與倫敦的機會特別相關。

Our next question comes from Elyse Greenspan from Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Elyse Greenspan。

My first question, on the reinsurance side, Marc, in response to an earlier question, you said that supply is taking a pause. So now when we think about supply of capital in Florida, is that a comment that you would make to overall capital, to alternative capital, to traditional capital? I guess, is the -- you think about the buckets of capital sources for the upcoming part of renewals? If you could just give us a little bit more color on how you think this will play out?

我的第一個問題，在再保險方面，馬克，在回答之前的問題時，你說供應正在暫停。那麼現在，當我們考慮佛羅里達州的資本供應時，您是否會對整體資本、另類資本和傳統資本發表評論？我想，是——你考慮過即將到來的續約部分的資金來源嗎？如果你能給我們更多關於你認為這將如何發揮作用的顏色？

Well, I don't know how it's going to play out, I'm just talking about the early signs. But in terms of where it's coming from, the supply -- the pause has been taken by all participants because implicitly, in some of the traditional players, some of it is relying on alternative capital and there is also an alternative capital stand-alone as well. So it's really taking a step back, a lot of moving parts in Florida, the assignment of benefits, the LAE adjustments and whatever else, the department asking for, buying more, I mean, there's a lot of moving parts right now. So if people are still -- and people are waiting to see more up-to-date Irma numbers, they've developing as we all know, for several quarters now. So everybody is taking a pause, I think it's a collective -- it's not obviously, a consensus that developed by talking to one another, obviously, but it seems to be this taking a pause positioning from the supply. But we've seen this before, Elyse. I want to be open. Sometimes, you see this and at the end, people sort of roll over and do -- act differently than you would've thought they would behave. But I'm just telling you, as we speak, last information that I received this morning about the current state of the overall feeling in the marketplace.

好吧，我不知道結果會如何，我只是在談論早期跡象。但就它的來源、供應而言——所有參與者都暫停了，因為隱含地，在一些傳統參與者中，其中一些依賴於替代資本，而且還有一種獨立的替代資本作為出色地。所以它真的在退後一步，佛羅里達州有很多活動部件，福利分配，LAE 調整以及其他任何東西，部門要求購買更多，我的意思是，現在有很多活動部件。因此，如果人們仍然 - 並且人們正在等待看到更多最新的 Irma 數字，那麼眾所周知，他們已經發展了幾個季度。所以每個人都在暫停，我認為這是一個集體 - 這顯然不是通過彼此交談而形成的共識，顯然，但這似乎是從供應商那裡暫停定位。但我們以前見過這個，愛麗絲。我想敞開心扉。有時，你會看到這一點，最後，人們會翻身並做——行為與你想像的不同。但我只是告訴你，就在我們說話的時候，我今天早上收到的關於市場整體感覺當前狀態的最後信息。

Okay. And then back to some comments you guys have been making throughout the call in the primary insurance market. So, it sounds like you guys are finding more opportunity in the shorter-tail lines as opposed to some long-tail lines, just given on some concerns about loss costs. Another company, earlier today, pointed to this being a casualty driven market upturn. Would you agree with that statement? And maybe there's just -- you guys are holding off on really pushing for growth on the casualty side, just given waiting to see how loss trend plays out?

好的。然後回到你們在主要保險市場的整個電話會議中發表的一些評論。所以，聽起來你們在短尾線中發現了更多機會，而不是一些長尾線，只是出於對損失成本的一些擔憂。今天早些時候，另一家公司指出，這是由傷亡驅動的市場好轉。你同意這種說法嗎？也許只是 - 你們正在推遲真正推動傷亡方面的增長，只是等著看損失趨勢如何發揮作用？

Well, I don't know if it's casualty led level before. We've seen in terms of where we've allocated our efforts in capital, as François mentioned, a lot of it is led by cat exposure and marine exposure and short-tail exposures. So this is where we've been more allocating capital for the last 6 quarters -- for 3 to 4 quarters and still continue on as we speak this quarter.

好吧，我不知道之前是否是傷亡領導級別。正如 François 提到的，我們已經看到我們在資本分配方面的努力，其中很多是由貓科動物暴露、海洋暴露和短尾暴露導致的。因此，這就是我們在過去 6 個季度中分配更多資金的地方 - 3 到 4 個季度，並且在我們本季度講話時仍在繼續。

On the liability side, for us to have a casualty-led, we'd still need to see some pain in the marketplace. We're seeing broad pain yet, at least, emerging on the insurance portfolios. What I would tell you and thereby probably sort of size or is in line with what you -- the comment I made earlier in some calls is that the reinsurance market is actually being a bit more disciplined, a bit more active to the casualty placements. And that tells us indirectly that there's probably a bit more negative perception about the ultimate results in those numbers, but I'm sure that these results have been published yet.

在責任方面，要讓我們以傷亡為主導，我們仍然需要在市場上看到一些痛苦。我們至少在保險組合中看到了廣泛的痛苦。我會告訴你的，因此可能有點規模或與你的一致 - 我早些時候在一些電話中發表的評論是，再保險市場實際上更加自律，對傷亡安置更加活躍。這間接地告訴我們，對於這些數字的最終結果可能存在更多的負面看法，但我確信這些結果已經公佈。

Okay. And then are you seeing -- sorry, one last question. Are seeing more business come from standard markets to E&S market?

好的。然後你看到了嗎 - 抱歉，最後一個問題。是否看到更多業務從標準市場轉向 E&S 市場？

Yes, most of what we see is through the E&S market. Most of the growth except for U.K. regional, obviously, which is a specific focus. But yes, the Lloyd's mark -- the Lloyd's business and the E&S market is where we are seeing more opportunities. Yes.

是的，我們看到的大部分是通過 E&S 市場。顯然，除英國地區外，大部分增長都是一個特定的重點。但是，是的，勞合社的標誌——勞合社的業務和 E&S 市場是我們看到更多機會的地方。是的。

And then, sorry, one last question. On the intangibles, they went -- were a little bit higher than this quarter, I think that's due to your 2 newer acquisitions. Is the Q1 level kind of a good run rate for this year? And could you give us a sense of where the intangibles amortization expense might come in, in out years?

然後，抱歉，還有最後一個問題。在無形資產方面，他們去了 - 比本季度高一點，我認為這是由於您的 2 項新收購。今年的 Q1 水平是一個不錯的運行率嗎？你能告訴我們無形資產攤銷費用可能會在未來幾年出現在哪裡嗎？

Yes. Well, certainly, yes, the part 1, our practice for the amortization of the intangibles is linear throughout the year. So you should expect the remainder of 2019 to be at very much close to the same level that we had in Q1. In terms of outer years, we have given direction on the -- specifically on the UGC transaction, how it's going to wind down in 2020 and beyond. So we're happy to recirculate that and give you an update on that, but that's a very much scheduled, and we know we're going to be. I don't have the numbers in front of me but 2020, but we can certainly, yes, give you that -- in the 10-K.

是的。嗯，當然，是的，第 1 部分，我們對無形資產攤銷的做法全年都是線性的。因此，您應該預計 2019 年剩餘時間將非常接近我們在第一季度的水平。就外部年份而言，我們已經給出了方向——特別是關於 UGC 交易，它將如何在 2020 年及以後結束。所以我們很高興重新傳播它並為您提供更新，但這是一個非常有計劃的，我們知道我們將會如此。我面前沒有數字，只有 2020 年，但我們當然可以，是的，在 10-K 中給你。

Okay. So the UGC numbers are unchanged and it's just up a little bit due to the 2 recent deals?

好的。所以 UGC 數量沒有變化，只是因為最近的 2 筆交易而增加了一點點？

Exactly, that's correct. Yes. You can see the numbers were locked in at the time of the closing. Yes.

沒錯，這是正確的。是的。您可以看到這些數字在關閉時被鎖定。是的。

Our next question comes from Mike Zaremski from Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Mike Zaremski。

First question is on mortgage insurance. I believe in -- Marc, in your prepared remarks, you mentioned even as pricing has become more competitive, you used that term. Is pricing currently becoming more competitive? I know that a lot it is within these dynamic pricing models so it's not as transparent. And maybe you could comment on -- is that maybe why is your market share -- I know you don't focus on market share but maybe that's why your market share seems to feels like you've fallen quarter-over-quarter?

第一個問題是關於抵押貸款保險。我相信——馬克，在你準備好的發言中，你提到即使定價變得更具競爭力，你也使用了這個詞。目前的定價是否變得更具競爭力？我知道很多都在這些動態定價模型中，所以它不那麼透明。也許你可以評論 - 這也許是為什麼你的市場份額 - 我知道你不關注市場份額，但也許這就是為什麼你的市場份額似乎感覺你已經環比下降？

Yes, I think it's true that there's -- well, it's hard to see if it's a broad competition but certainly, there's a lot of dislocation occurring in the pricing -- in the marketplace as a result of all these new risk-based pricing. It's very hard to see what it means and to even evaluate whether it's down or up or sideways. So we'll reserve ourselves some more time to evaluate and come to terms to what it means in this quarter. But certainly, we haven't changed our pricing, we held the line and stayed the course on our risk-based pricing. And at the end, we just harvest what we put out there and what's stuck to the marketplace. And -- but it's going to take a while right, markets are going through establishing the systems, educating the loan originators how it's used and sort of fixing some of the bugs. So it's going to take several quarters for us to really see if there is truly that much more price competition. But I think the price competition that I mentioned in my remarks has been over the several last quarters, I was not specifically talking about this quarter.

是的，我認為這是真的——好吧，很難看出這是否是一場廣泛的競爭，但可以肯定的是，由於所有這些新的基於風險的定價，市場上的定價出現了很多錯位。很難看出它的含義，甚至很難評估它是向下、向上還是橫向。因此，我們將留出更多時間來評估並確定本季度的意義。但可以肯定的是，我們沒有改變我們的定價，我們堅持並堅持我們基於風險的定價。最後，我們只是收穫了我們投放在那裡的東西以及留在市場上的東西。而且——但這需要一段時間，市場正在建立系統，教育貸款發起人如何使用它，並修復一些錯誤。因此，我們需要幾個季度才能真正了解是否真的存在更多的價格競爭。但我認為我在發言中提到的價格競爭已經過去了幾個季度，我並不是專門在談論這個季度。

Okay. That's helpful. And lastly, moving to kind of leverage levels and excess capital. If you could remind us, I know leverage is down to 21%-ish. Historically for UGC it was in the teens. Can you remind us, is there a level that you have kind of soft promised to rating agencies? And then also kind of curious whether holding dry powder is more or less important today versus in the past?

好的。這很有幫助。最後，轉向某種槓桿水平和過剩資本。如果您能提醒我們，我知道槓桿率已降至 21% 左右。從歷史上看，UGC 還處於十幾歲的時候。您能否提醒我們，您是否對評級機構做出了某種程度的軟承諾？然後也有點好奇，與過去相比，今天持有乾粉是否更重要或更不重要？

Yes. Part 1 to your question, yes. 20% was roughly the number that we were -- the leverage level, the leverage, yes, level that we were targeting at the time of acquisition, and we are there today. So I think we're -- we've accomplished what we set out to do, and that's good news.

是的。您問題的第 1 部分，是的。20% 大致是我們的數字——槓桿水平，槓桿水平，是的，我們在收購時的目標水平，我們今天就在那裡。所以我認為我們 - 我們已經完成了我們打算做的事情，這是個好消息。

And yes, part B, to your question. Absolutely, dry powder is something we that we always have been firm believers in, whether it's deploying the capital in potential other opportunities, whether they're acquisitions or if this rate environment picks up steam and gives us the opportunity to put more capital at work in the business in any of our 3 segments, we want to have that ability to do so. So the answer to your question is, yes, having the flexibility something that we've always believed in and thankfully, I think we're there right now.

是的，B 部分，關於你的問題。絕對地，乾粉是我們一直堅信的東西，無論是將資本部署在潛在的其他機會中，無論是收購，還是這種利率環境加速發展，讓我們有機會投入更多資金在我們 3 個部門中任何一個部門的業務中，我們都希望具備這樣做的能力。所以你的問題的答案是，是的，擁有我們一直相信的靈活性，幸運的是，我認為我們現在就在那裡。

Our next question comes from Yaron Kinar from Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Yaron Kinar。

Just wanted to circle back on the reinsurance prior year development. So even if I exclude the Jebi adverse development, I think net, you see a bit of a decrease year-over-year. Can you maybe talk about the moving pieces there?

只是想回顧一下再保險前一年的發展。因此，即使我排除了 Jebi 的不利發展，我認為淨值同比也會有所下降。你能談談那裡的動人作品嗎？

A couple of other things that, I'd say, more minor. I mean, there's been some timing of some claims that came through that, yes, impacted favorable or the level of favorable development in our reinsurance segment reserves. No question that we didn't -- we've held a healthy level of reserve releases over the years that were not -- we never plan for it. We always observe the data and we always react to the data. Turns out this quarter, the level of favorable wasn't as high at this had been in prior quarters. Does it revert back to a higher level next quarter? well, we don't know, we'll find out in 3 months. But no question that, yes, Jebi was a big part of it. There's a couple of other small moving parts that are just I think a bit more noise and some want idiosyncratic in terms of the timing of the events that affected the aggregate level of PYD on the reinsurance segment.

其他一些事情，我想說，更次要的。我的意思是，有一些索賠發生在某些時候，是的，影響了我們再保險部門準備金的有利或有利發展水平。毫無疑問，我們沒有——多年來我們一直保持健康的儲備釋放水平——我們從未為此做過計劃。我們總是觀察數據，我們總是對數據做出反應。事實證明，本季度的有利程度沒有前幾個季度那麼高。下個季度它會回到更高的水平嗎？好吧，我們不知道，我們會在 3 個月內找到答案。但毫無疑問，是的，Jebi 是其中的重要組成部分。還有一些其他小的移動部件，我認為這些噪音有點大，有些人希望在影響再保險部門 PYD 總體水平的事件發生時間方面具有特殊性。

And I think our loss cost trends discussion is certainly key to our being prudent and careful in the way we set up reserves because things could be shifting. And so that's really part of the -- that's part of the informing our decisions currently. It's not recent, but it's really part of that as well.

而且我認為我們的損失成本趨勢討論對於我們在建立儲備金的方式上保持謹慎和謹慎無疑是關鍵，因為事情可能會發生變化。因此，這確實是 - 這是我們目前決策的一部分。這不是最近的，但它確實也是其中的一部分。

Understood. I guess, what I'm trying to get at though is the year-over-year change, excluding Jebi, coming more from shorter-tail lines or from longer-tail lines?

明白了。我想，我想要了解的是同比變化，不包括 Jebi，更多來自短尾線或長尾線？

It's a mixed bag. It's a bit of both.

這是一個混合包。兩者兼而有之。

Okay. And then with regards to the U.K. block that you acquired, should we expect it to be fully earned in kind of within a roughly 12-month period, so January of 2020?

好的。然後關於您收購的英國區塊，我們是否應該期望它在大約 12 個月的時間內（即 2020 年 1 月）以實物形式完全獲得？

Pretty much. I mean, right? So the premium, it's a ramp up, so it's effectively a start-up. And we -- it will be 50% earned by -- in 2019 but you're right, Q1 into next year, I'd like to think that the run rate of earned premiums going to be pretty steady. And yes, there's nothing specific, nothing special about their annual policies and the accounting should follow pretty easily from there.

差不多。我的意思是，對嗎？所以溢價，它是一個斜坡，所以它實際上是一個初創公司。我們 - 到 2019 年將達到 50%，但你是對的，明年第一季度，我認為已賺保費的運行率將非常穩定。是的，他們的年度政策沒有什麼特別的，沒有什麼特別的，會計應該很容易從那裡開始。

And our next question comes from Meyer Shields from KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Meyer Shields。

I'd like to ask about the U.K. acquisition. Once you get past the -- a steady run rate for earned premiums, is there any difference in its loss ratio, expense ratio breakdown and the legacy Arch insurance segment?

我想問一下英國的收購。一旦你超過了——已賺保費的穩定運行率，它的損失率、費用率細分和遺留的 Arch 保險部門有什麼不同嗎？

Well, should -- I mean, there's a lot of moving parts in each -- in the expense ratio. What we're trying to improve on that point in the U.K., particular, and you guys all know about the realities of the London market and it's generally an expensive place to do business in. So that was always one of our objectives here is try to reduce our expense ratio, specifically from the U.K. side, and this acquisition helps us achieve that's given it's a more -- it's a better business model for us and more efficient on that sense. But the counter to that, I would say is we're very -- there's other opportunities, other investments that we're making within our insurance segment that may offset some of that. So I -- we don't have complete visibility on everything we're going to do in 2019, but if you are looking for some view on what the expense ratio may look like for the insurance segment for the remainder of the year, I would say, no question that Q1 was elevated because again, the lack of a premium on the U.K. book and the timing of the share-based expenses or compensation expenses. By the end of the year, we'd like to think that we can bring it down between 100 and 200 basis points from where it was in Q1.

嗯，應該 - 我的意思是，每個都有很多移動部件 - 在費用比率中。在英國，我們正在努力改善這一點，尤其是，你們都知道倫敦市場的現實，它通常是一個昂貴的經商之地。所以這一直是我們的目標之一，就是努力降低我們的費用比率，特別是從英國方面來說，這次收購幫助我們實現了這一點，因為它對我們來說是一個更好的商業模式，從這個意義上講效率更高。但與此相反，我想說的是，我們非常有其他機會，我們在保險部門進行的其他投資可能會抵消其中的一些。所以我 - 我們對我們將在 2019 年要做的所有事情都沒有完全的了解，但如果你想了解今年剩餘時間保險部門的費用比率可能是什麼樣子，我會說，毫無疑問，第一季度的增長是因為英國賬面沒有溢價以及基於股份的費用或補償費用的時間安排。到今年年底，我們認為我們可以將其從第一季度的水平降低 100 到 200 個基點。

But Meyer, overall, the business that we've acquired is retail business. As you know, it's not cheap, necessarily, you still -- there's a lot of commissions that have to grow through. But the problem -- well, which means the loss ratio would hopefully be lower than a comparative E&S portfolio. Having said all this, I think by virtue of the critical mass that François just talked about, I think that it should improve the overall expense ratio, but it's -- I wouldn't expect to go to be a significant improvement.

但邁耶，總的來說，我們收購的業務是零售業務。正如你所知，它並不便宜，當然，你仍然 - 有很多佣金需要增加。但問題是——好吧，這意味著損失率有望低於比較的 E&S 投資組合。說了這麼多之後，我認為憑藉 François 剛才談到的臨界質量，我認為它應該會提高整體費用比率，但它——我不希望有顯著的改善。

Okay. That's very thorough and very helpful. Looking at mortgage, I think, Marc, you talked earlier about the benefits of the current economy. I don't know how to ask this without being too political charged, but do you see that as being vulnerable to next year's presidential election?

好的。這是非常徹底和非常有幫助的。看看抵押貸款，我想，馬克，你之前談到了當前經濟的好處。我不知道怎麼問這個問題才不會太政治化，但你認為這容易受到明年總統大選的影響嗎？

Well, it -- politics are part and parcels of what we have to deal with all the time. You know, we're on the receiving end of what's happening out there. But one thing I'll tell you about the politics, we've been worrying about this, we've been asked that question for a long time, but the consistent answer on any administration that was in place and anybody that runs the FHFA, it's clearly a recognition that private market has a place in delivering the product to the homeowners and providing insurance and protection. So we don't see any major change there. We also don't see any change to the GSE mandate and the way that MI is one of the collateral that's used to bring the LTV down below 80%, so none of those core essence things that are really essential for -- to make sure that the market exists has been under siege or will be under siege. I mean there might be some changes to the delivery of the product, and we certainly have been participating in some of those new innovations and we'll continue to do so for the future. But the way we think about politics and as it regards to MI is we're agnostic as to what happens, we'll react and are able and willing to help in any way that we can to deliver the product to the homeowners and to the banking system.

好吧，政治是我們必須一直處理的問題的重要組成部分。你知道，我們正在接受外面發生的事情。但是我要告訴你關於政治的一件事，我們一直在擔心這個，我們被問到這個問題很長時間了，但是對任何現任政府和任何運行 FHFA 的人的一致回答，很明顯，人們認識到私人市場在向房主提供產品並提供保險和保護方面佔有一席之地。所以我們看不到那裡有任何重大變化。我們也沒有看到 GSE 授權有任何變化，也沒有看到 MI 是用於將 LTV 降至 80% 以下的抵押品之一的方式，所以這些核心本質的東西都不是真正必要的 - 確保市場存在已經被圍困或將要被圍困。我的意思是產品的交付可能會有一些變化，我們當然一直在參與其中的一些新創新，我們將在未來繼續這樣做。但是我們思考政治的方式以及關於 MI 的方式是我們對發生的事情是不可知的，我們會做出反應並且能夠並且願意以我們可以提供的任何方式提供產品給房主和銀行系統。

And I'm showing no further questions from our phone lines. I now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Marc Grandisson for any closing remarks.

我不會再從我們的電話線上顯示更多問題。我現在想把會議轉回給 Marc Grandisson 先生作閉幕詞。

So from François and I, have a good day, and then we'll talk to you next quarter. Thank you, much.

因此，我和 François 祝你今天愉快，然後我們將在下個季度與你交談。非常感謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for participating in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may all disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.

女士們，先生們，感謝你們參加今天的會議。這確實結束了程序。你們都可以斷開連接。每個人，祝你有美好的一天。