Arch Capital Group Ltd (ACGLO) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Arch Capital Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到 Arch Capital Group 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，正在錄製此電話會議。

Before the company gets started with this update, management wants to first remind everyone that certain statements in today's press release and discussed on this call may constitute forward-looking statements under the federal securities laws. These statements are based upon management's current assessments and assumptions and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Consequently, actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied.

在公司開始發布此更新之前，管理層希望首先提醒大家，今天新聞稿中的某些聲明和本次電話會議上討論的某些聲明可能構成聯邦證券法規定的前瞻性聲明。這些陳述基於管理層當前的評估和假設，並受到許多風險和不確定性的影響。因此，實際結果可能與明示或暗示的結果存在重大差異。

For more information on the risks and other factors that may affect future performance, investors should review periodic reports that are filed in the company with the SEC from time to time. Additionally, certain statements contained in the call that are not based on historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

有關可能影響未來業績的風險和其他因素的更多信息，投資者應查看公司不時向美國證券交易委員會提交的定期報告。此外，電話中包含的某些並非基於歷史事實的陳述是 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》含義內的前瞻性陳述。

The company intends the forward-looking statements in this call to be subject to the safe harbor created thereby. Management also will make reference to some non-GAAP measures of financial performance. The reconciliation to GAAP and definition of operating income can be found in the company's current report or Form 8-K furnished to the SEC yesterday, which contains the company's earnings press release and is available on the company's website.

公司打算在本次電話會議中的前瞻性陳述受制於由此產生的安全港。管理層還將參考一些非 GAAP 財務業績指標。與 GAAP 的對賬和營業收入的定義可在公司當前報告或昨天提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 表格中找到，其中包含公司的收益新聞稿，可在公司網站上查閱。

I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Marc Grandisson and Mr. Francois Morin. Sir, you may begin.

現在我想介紹一下今天會議的主持人，Marc Grandisson 先生和 Francois Morin 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, Towanda. Good morning, and welcome to the fourth quarter earnings call for Arch Capital Group. Happy Valentine's Day to all. I'm pleased to share that for the fourth quarter of 2022, each of our 3 underwriting segments produced exceptional results. Our quarter's results were buoyed by a lower than average cat loss experience a significant favorable development in mortgage reserves and a higher level of profitable earned premiums from our recent growth.

謝謝你，托旺達。早上好，歡迎來到 Arch Capital Group 第四季度財報電話會議。祝大家情人節快樂。我很高興與大家分享，在 2022 年第四季度，我們的 3 個承保部門都取得了非凡的業績。我們季度的業績受到低於平均水平的巨災損失、抵押貸款準備金的顯著有利發展以及我們近期增長帶來的更高水平的盈利保費的提振。

This quarter demonstrates the power of our strategy, namely our management of the underwriting cycle across the diversified specialty portfolio with a prudent reserving and underwriting stance. Our P&C insurance underwriting teams continue to lean into hard market conditions, and our mortgage team delivered record underwriting income, which is again a direct result of our years as the established market leader there.

本季度展示了我們戰略的力量，即我們以審慎的準備金和承保立場管理多元化專業投資組合的承保週期。我們的 P&C 保險承保團隊繼續適應艱難的市場環境，我們的抵押貸款團隊創造了創紀錄的承保收入，這再次是我們多年來作為當地市場領導者的直接結果。

For the full year of 2022, Arch generated over $1.8 billion of operating income with an operating return on equity of 14.8%. 2022 was our third consecutive year of sustained premium and revenue growth, supporting stronger and more stable earnings power for the near term. The net premium written growth from our P&C units was exceptional. Reinsurance segment NPW grew 51% for 2022 as the team seized on market dislocations while our insurance segment grew a robust 21% on the year. We continue to see a broad array of opportunities to allocate capital where rates and terms and conditions allow for growth in attractive returns.

2022 年全年，Arch 的營業收入超過 18 億美元，營業股本回報率為 14.8%。 2022 年是我們保費和收入連續第三年持續增長，支持短期內更強勁和更穩定的盈利能力。我們的 P&C 部門的淨保費收入增長非常出色。由於團隊抓住了市場混亂，再保險部門 NPW 在 2022 年增長了 51%，而我們的保險部門在這一年增長了 21%。我們繼續看到廣泛的機會來配置資本，其中利率和條款和條件允許增長有吸引力的回報。

Taking stock of where we are in the current market cycle, it's important to note that we have recorded premium growth significantly above the long-term industry average. Over the last 4 years, we've grown property and casualty net premium written threefold to nearly $10 billion from less than $3.6 billion in 2018, while overall rates increased cumulatively by over 40%. As we have stated previously, our cycle management strategy dictates that we maximize premium volume when rates are rising, which is precisely what we've done.

盤點我們在當前市場週期中所處的位置，重要的是要注意我們錄得的保費增長明顯高於長期行業平均水平。在過去 4 年中，我們的財產和意外險淨承保保費從 2018 年的不到 36 億美元增長了三倍，達到近 100 億美元，而總體費率累計增長了 40% 以上。正如我們之前所說，我們的周期管理策略要求我們在利率上升時最大化保費量，這正是我們所做的。

While we expect to continue to allocate more capital to the P&C segments for the next several years, I wish to remind our shareholders that we capitalize on the attractive return opportunities in our MI segment to the tune of $5.4 billion of underwriting income since 2017. These profits allowed us to redeploy capital into more accretive uses, including $2 billion worth of share repurchases since 2018, and the substantial growth in profitable P&C premium. MI has been vital to our ability to propel our P&C underwriting growth.

雖然我們預計未來幾年將繼續向 P&C 部門分配更多資本，但我想提醒我們的股東，我們利用 MI 部門的有吸引力的回報機會，自 2017 年以來承保收入達到 54 億美元。這些利潤使我們能夠將資本重新部署到更具增值性的用途，包括自 2018 年以來價值 20 億美元的股票回購，以及盈利性財產險保費的大幅增長。 MI 對我們推動 P&C 承保增長的能力至關重要。

Underwriting cycle management is core to our culture, and I want to take a brief detour into how we think about the underwriting cycle here at Arch. Given the simplification of falling grades insurance clock split into 4 stages. Stage 1, at the onset of the hard market, we see rates increase dramatically and capacity withdrawn. Results on the previous soft market results only begin to show up in claims activity. Stage 2. This is the beginning of the restoration phase, which is indicated by second and sometimes third round of rate increases along with some improvements for the insurers in the terms and conditions as the industry adjusts its appetite and underwriting policies. Much of the focus during this stage is also geared to filling guests in and replenishing reserve shortfalls from the soft years while showing rapid improvements.

承保週期管理是我們文化的核心，我想簡要介紹一下我們如何看待 Arch 的承保週期。鑑於降級保險時鐘的簡化分為 4 個階段。第 1 階段，在硬市場開始時，我們看到利率急劇上升，產能撤出。先前疲軟市場結果的結果僅開始顯示在索賠活動中。第 2 階段。這是恢復階段的開始，隨著行業調整其胃口和承保政策，第二輪（有時是第三輪）利率上漲以及保險公司在條款和條件方面的一些改進表明了這一點。這一階段的大部分重點還在於填補客人和補充疲軟年份的儲備短缺，同時顯示出快速的改善。

Stage 3. That next period is where rates gradually decrease often as a result of overreactions in Stage 2. Underwriting profits from the hard market years gradually show up in the results. This period can be lengthy and it usually allows for still profitable growth, especially for the disciplined underwriters. And finally, Stage 4. Famous Stage 4 is where the industry forsakes underwriting discipline and overly focuses on topline growth even as rate decreases accelerate. This is where Arch's culture of underwriting discipline is most apparent as we cut exposure and prepare for the return of Stage 1.

第 3 階段。由於第 2 階段的過度反應，下一個時期通常是費率逐漸下降的時期。艱難市場年份的承保利潤逐漸顯示在結果中。這段時間可能會很長，而且通常可以實現盈利增長，尤其是對於紀律嚴明的承銷商而言。最後是第 4 階段。著名的第 4 階段是該行業放棄承保紀律並過度關注收入增長，即使利率下降加速。這是 Arch 的承銷紀律文化在我們減少曝光並為第一階段的回歸做準備時最明顯的地方。

Right now, we are at Stage 2 in most lines. Some, for instance property, are back to Stage 1 since the fourth quarter. Understanding where you are at each point of the cycle for every product line and the nuances within each stage is critical to the timely allocation of capital to the areas of greatest opportunity. One of Arch's key sustainable advantages is the breadth of its capabilities across many specialty insurance lines, enhancing greatly our cycle management capabilities. A core strategic tenant of Arch is that underwriting acumen and discipline through the cycle drive superior risk-adjusted returns.

目前，我們在大多數方面都處於第 2 階段。有些，例如房地產，自第四季度以來回到了第一階段。了解您在每個產品線的每個週期點所處的位置以及每個階段的細微差別對於及時將資本分配到最大機會的領域至關重要。 Arch 的關鍵可持續優勢之一是其在許多專業保險領域的能力範圍，大大增強了我們的周期管理能力。 Arch 的核心戰略租戶是承保敏銳度和紀律通過週期驅動卓越的風險調整後回報。

Now I'd like to share some highlights from our underwriting units. We'll kick it off with reinsurance. For the fourth quarter, net premium written in the reinsurance segment was $1.5 billion. That's more than double the same quarter 1 year ago. Francois will cover the details, but much of this growth is because we were well positioned to capitalize on broad market opportunities as well as several one-off opportunities resulting from market dislocations emerging in the fourth quarter. It is worth noting that the fourth quarter growth does not include the January 1 property and property cat renewals, which will be reflected in our next quarter's results.

現在我想分享我們承銷部門的一些亮點。我們將從再保險開始。第四季度，再保險部門的淨保費收入為 15 億美元。這是一年前同一季度的兩倍多。 Francois 將介紹詳細信息，但這種增長在很大程度上是因為我們做好了充分準備，可以利用廣泛的市場機會以及第四季度出現的市場混亂帶來的幾個一次性機會。值得注意的是，第四季度的增長不包括 1 月 1 日的財產和財產貓續約，這將反映在我們下一季度的業績中。

As you've heard, pricing for the January 1 renewals were strong. Cat pricing and terms both improved, leading to effective rate changes in the plus 30% to plus 50% range. We anticipate these trends will continue as the midyear property cat renewal and should translate to strong property cat premium growth in 2023 for Arch.

如您所知，1 月 1 日續訂的定價很高。 Cat 定價和條款均有所改善，導致有效費率在 30% 至 50% 的範圍內變化。我們預計這些趨勢將隨著年中財產巨災的更新而持續，並應轉化為 Arch 2023 年財產巨災保費的強勁增長。

Moving now to our insurance segment, where we continue to reap the benefits of the investments we've made in enhancing our specialty businesses in the U.K. and in the U.S. On the year, we wrote over $5 billion of NPW, net premium written, compared to $4.1 billion in '21, with growth coming from a diverse mix of business. Underwriting performance continues to be excellent with an ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 89.6%. Rate increases with a few exceptions remain above loss cost trend, and we expect this strong momentum to continue for 2023. The insurance market remains rational and disciplined.

現在轉到我們的保險部門，我們繼續從我們為加強我們在英國和美國的專業業務所做的投資中獲益。這一年，我們寫了超過 50 億美元的 NPW，淨保費寫，比較到 21 年達到 41 億美元，增長來自多元化的業務組合。承保業績繼續出色，除意外事故年度的綜合比率為 89.6%。除少數例外，利率上漲仍高於損失成本趨勢，我們預計這種強勁勢頭將持續到 2023 年。保險市場保持理性和紀律。

We expect also continued opportunities due to the ongoing global uncertainties and remain optimistic that this disciplined behavior that we saw in the P&C industry for the last 3 years will persist as we move through Stage 2 of the cycles.

由於持續的全球不確定性，我們預計還會有持續的機會，並且仍然樂觀地認為，我們在過去 3 年中在財產和意外險行業看到的這種紀律行為將隨著我們進入周期的第 2 階段而持續存在。

Next, our mortgage team. Again, had an exceptional quarter, capping off an excellent year. As we benefited from earnings from our embedded book as well as from favorable reserve development as cures on delinquencies exceeded our expectations. The mortgage segment delivered $374 million of underwriting income in the quarter and $1.3 billion for the year, an excellent contribution in a year where higher mortgage interest rates slowed new originations.

接下來，我們的抵押貸款團隊。再一次，有一個出色的季度，結束了出色的一年。由於我們受益於嵌入式賬簿的收益以及有利的儲備開發，因為拖欠率的解決超出了我們的預期。抵押貸款部門在本季度實現了 3.74 億美元的承銷收入，全年實現了 13 億美元的承保收入，在抵押貸款利率較高導致新業務放慢的一年中做出了出色的貢獻。

Our insurance in force, the earnings foundation of the mortgage segment, grew to $513 billion at year-end '22, as persistency increased due to higher mortgage rates. As expected, higher mortgage rates led to reduce NRW as mortgage rates touched 7%, the highest rates in 20 years. Looking broadly at the MI industry's health, we have borrower credit quality which is outstanding and excess housing demand above supply, the U.S. unemployment rate is at historic lows and the borrowers' equity in their homes remain at very healthy levels. One thing worthy of mention is that the MI industry is acting in a disciplined and responsible manner. In the face of these economic uncertainties, premium rates are increasing while underwriting quality remains strong.

我們有效的保險是抵押貸款部門的盈利基礎，到 22 年底增長到 5130 億美元，因為更高的抵押貸款利率導致持久性增加。正如預期的那樣，更高的抵押貸款利率導致 NRW 減少，因為抵押貸款利率觸及 7%，為 20 年來的最高水平。從廣義上看 MI 行業的健康狀況，我們的借款人信貸質量非常出色，住房供不應求，美國失業率處於歷史低位，借款人的房屋淨值保持在非常健康的水平。值得一提的是，MI 行業正在以紀律和負責任的方式行事。面對這些經濟不確定性，保費率正在上升，而承保質量依然強勁。

Finally, the interest rate increases we've seen in the last 12-plus months should help fuel our net investment income through 2023. We are poised to benefit from a higher reinvestment rates coupled with the growth in invested assets. I've got auto racing on my mind lately, and when I look at our industry, I can't help but think that Arch is one of the best cars on the track. We know that winning the race comes down to more than having a great driver or the fastest car. There is much preparation, analysis and looking at the conditions on the track as well as monitoring the other drivers.

最後，我們在過去 12 個多月中看到的利率上漲應該有助於推動我們到 2023 年的淨投資收入。我們準備受益於更高的再投資率和投資資產的增長。我最近一直在想賽車，當我審視我們的行業時，我不禁認為 Arch 是賽道上最好的汽車之一。我們知道，贏得比賽不僅僅取決於擁有出色的車手或最快的汽車。有很多準備、分析和查看賽道狀況以及監控其他車手。

By recognizing the soft market conditions in '17 and '18, we avoided the mistakes others made early in the race when they might have burned tires or overheated their engines. The pricing began to improve in 2019. We're able to take advantage of some of our competition. That fixed up an engine problems, and we took the opportunity to take more of a lead on the track by increasing substantially our writings. And then once we saw some clear track ahead of us, we were able to accelerate even faster. Today, we're firing on all cylinders, and I know we've got the right crew to bring it home.

通過認識到 17 年和 18 年的疲軟市場狀況，我們避免了其他人在比賽早期犯下的錯誤，他們可能會燒壞輪胎或使發動機過熱。定價在 2019 年開始改善。我們能夠利用我們的一些競爭優勢。這解決了引擎問題，我們藉此機會通過大幅增加我們的作品在賽道上取得更多領先。然後，一旦我們看到前方有清晰的軌道，我們就能加速得更快。今天，我們全力以赴，我知道我們有合適的工作人員把它帶回家。

Let's hand the wheel over to Francois before coming back to and answer your questions. Francois?

在返回並回答您的問題之前，讓我們將方向盤交給 Francois。弗朗索瓦？

Thank you, Marc, and good morning to all. Thanks for joining us today. I'm very pleased to share that once again, Arch had an excellent quarter on virtually every front. The year concluded with fourth quarter after-tax operating income of $2.14 per share for an annualized operating return on average common equity of 28%. Book value per share was up 9.9% in the quarter to $32.62, and down only 2.8% on the year, a great result considering the impact raising interest rates had on our fixed income portfolio with a difficult year in equity markets and the elevated catastrophe activity we experienced this year.

謝謝你，馬克，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們。我很高興再次分享這一點，Arch 在幾乎所有方面都有出色的表現。這一年以每股 2.14 美元的第四季度稅後營業收入結束，平均普通股本年化營業回報率為 28%。本季度每股賬面價值增長 9.9% 至 32.62 美元，同比僅下降 2.8%，考慮到加息對我們固定收益投資組合的影響以及股票市場困難的一年和災難活動增加，這是一個很好的結果我們經歷了這一年。

Turning to the operating segments. Net premium written by our reinsurance segment grew by an exceptional 118% over the same quarter last year. Although this quarter, we had a few large one-off transactions that impacted our results and contributed $407 million to our net written premium. Adjusting for these transactions, our net premium written growth was still elevated at 61% for the quarter. These transactions are yet another example of the dislocated state of the reinsurance market where our strong balance sheet provides a significant advantage as we look to deploy meaningful capital to support ceding companies at terms that meet our target return expectations.

轉向經營部門。我們的再保險部門承保的淨保費比去年同期增長了 118%。儘管本季度，我們進行了幾筆大型一次性交易，影響了我們的業績，並為我們的淨承保保費貢獻了 4.07 億美元。對這些交易進行調整後，我們本季度的淨保費收入增長率仍高達 61%。這些交易是再保險市場混亂狀態的又一個例子，我們強大的資產負債表提供了顯著優勢，因為我們希望以符合我們目標回報預期的條件部署有意義的資本來支持分出公司。

More importantly, the underlying performance of the segment this quarter was very good with an ex-cat accident year combined ratio of 82.9% and a de minimis impact from current accident year capacity losses.

更重要的是，本季度該部門的基本表現非常好，前事故年度綜合比率為 82.9%，當前事故年度產能損失的影響微乎其微。

Reflecting ongoing hard market conditions, the insurance segment also closed the year on a very good note with fourth quarter net premium written growth of 17.4% over the same quarter one year ago in an accident quarter combined ratio, excluding cats of 89.6%. Most of our lines of business still benefit from excellent market conditions, both in the U.S. and internationally, and our expectations for the coming year remain very positive.

反映出持續的艱難市場狀況，保險部門也以非常好的成績結束了這一年，第四季度淨保費收入比去年同期增長 17.4%，事故季度綜合比率為 89.6%，不包括巨災。我們的大部分業務仍然受益於美國和國際市場的良好市場條件，我們對來年的預期仍然非常樂觀。

Our mortgage segment continued its run of quarters with results better than long-term averages as claim activity for the business remain low. While production volumes were down due to the lower level of originations in the market, we remain positive on the return prospects for this business. Net premiums earned were up slightly on a sequential basis as the persistency of our in-force insurance at 79.5% at the end of the quarter continued to increase. The combined ratio, excluding prior year development, was 45% for the quarter and reflects our prudent approach to loss reserving, one of our key operating principles.

由於該業務的索賠活動仍然很低，我們的抵押貸款業務連續幾個季度取得了好於長期平均水平的業績。雖然產量因市場原始水平較低而下降，但我們對該業務的回報前景仍持樂觀態度。已賺淨保費環比略有上升，因為本季度末我們有效保險的持續保費為 79.5%，繼續增加。本季度綜合比率（不包括上一年的開發）為 45%，反映了我們謹慎的損失準備金方法，這是我們的主要運營原則之一。

Our underwriting income reflected $270 million of favorable prior year development on a pretax basis across all segments this quarter, which represents approximately $0.66 per share after tax. While most of this favorable prior development, $211 million came from the mortgage segment, mostly on claim reserves set up for COVID-related delinquencies in the 2020 and 2021 accident years at U.S. MI. It is worth pointing out that our P&C reserves also contributed to the overall results. Of note, both our insurance and reinsurance segments had another quarter of favorable reserve development, and the 2022 calendar year Phase 2 incurred ratio for our P&C operations was 58.7%, its lowest level in more than 5 years.

我們的承銷收入反映了本季度所有部門稅前 2.7 億美元的有利前一年發展，這相當於稅後每股約 0.66 美元。雖然這一有利的前期發展中有 2.11 億美元的大部分來自抵押貸款部門，但其中大部分來自美國 MI 在 2020 年和 2021 年事故年為與 COVID 相關的拖欠而設立的索賠準備金。值得指出的是，我們的財產和意外險儲備也對整體業績做出了貢獻。值得注意的是，我們的保險和再保險部門都有另一個季度的有利準備金發展，2022 年第二階段財產和意外險業務的發生率為 58.7%，為 5 年多以來的最低水平。

Both these metrics provide some insight into the adequacy of our loss reserves, which constitute an important element in the quality of our balance sheet. Quarterly income from operating affiliates stood at $36 million and was generated from good results at (inaudible) and Somers.

這兩個指標都可以讓我們深入了解我們的損失準備金是否充足，這是我們資產負債表質量的一個重要因素。來自運營附屬公司的季度收入為 3600 萬美元，來自（聽不清）和 Somers 的良好業績。

Pretax net investment income was $0.48 per share, up 41% from the third quarter of 2022. Cash flow from operations, over $3.8 billion for the year, was strong and when combined with the proceeds from maturities and sales of securities in a rapidly rising yield environment, and hence, the underlying contribution from our investment portfolio. Going forward, with new money rates in our fixed income portfolio in the 4.5% to 5% range and a growing base of invested assets, we are well positioned to deliver an increasing level of investment income to help fuel our bottom line.

稅前淨投資收益為每股 0.48 美元，比 2022 年第三季度增長 41%。全年運營現金流強勁，超過 38 億美元，再加上到期收益和證券銷售收益，收益率迅速上升環境，以及我們投資組合的潛在貢獻。展望未來，隨著我們固定收益投資組合中的新貨幣利率在 4.5% 至 5% 的範圍內以及投資資產基礎不斷擴大，我們有能力提供更高水平的投資收入，以幫助推動我們的底線。

Total return for our investment portfolio was 2.6% on a U.S. dollar basis for the quarter with all of our strategies delivering positive returns. The contribution to the overall result was primarily led by our fixed income portfolio, which benefited from relatively stable interest rates and tightening credit spreads. The overall position of our investment portfolio remains relatively unchanged as we remain cautious relative to duration, credit and equity risk.

本季度我們投資組合的總回報率為 2.6%（按美元計算），我們所有的策略都帶來了正回報。對整體業績的貢獻主要來自我們的固定收益投資組合，該投資組合受益於相對穩定的利率和收緊的信用利差。由於我們對久期、信用和股票風險保持謹慎，我們投資組合的整體頭寸保持相對不變。

Turning to risk management. Our natural cat PML on a net basis stood at $970 million as of January 1 or 8% of tangible shareholders' equity. Again, well below our internal limits at the single event 1-in-250-year return level. Our peak zone PML remains at Florida Tri-County region. And as Marc mentioned, the PMLs we report represent a point-in-time estimate of the exposure from our imports portfolio and the premium associated with the January 1 renewals will get reported in our financials starting next quarter.

轉向風險管理。截至 1 月 1 日，我們的自然貓 PML 淨值為 9.7 億美元，佔有形股東權益的 8%。同樣，遠低於我們在單一事件 250 年回報率水平上的內部限制。我們的峰值區域 PML 仍位於佛羅里達州三縣地區。正如 Marc 所提到的，我們報告的 PML 代表了對我們進口組合的風險敞口的時間點估計，與 1 月 1 日續約相關的溢價將從下個季度開始在我們的財務報告中報告。

On the capital front, we did not repurchase any shares this quarter as our assessment of the market opportunity in 2023 remains very positive, one where we should be able to deploy meaningful capital into our business at attractive returns for the benefit of our shareholders.

在資本方面，本季度我們沒有回購任何股票，因為我們對 2023 年市場機會的評估仍然非常積極，我們應該能夠為我們的股東的利益以有吸引力的回報將有意義的資本部署到我們的業務中。

Finally, as Marc mentioned in his remarks, the results we enjoyed this year across our operations were achieved through a thoughtful and deliberate execution of our cycle management strategy and a strong culture of allocating capital to the most profitable markets and opportunities, these results, which were an important contributor to us joining the S&P 500, were only made possible by the ongoing hard work and dedication of our over 5,000 employees across the globe. They deserve a tremendous amount of credit for making us who we are today, an industry leader with a stellar 20-plus year track record that is ready for the opportunities and challenges ahead of us.

最後，正如 Marc 在他的發言中提到的，我們今年在運營中所取得的成果是通過深思熟慮和深思熟慮地執行我們的周期管理戰略以及將資本分配到最有利可圖的市場和機會的強大文化而實現的，這些結果，是我們加入標準普爾 500 指數的重要貢獻者，只有我們全球 5,000 多名員工的不懈努力和奉獻才有可能。他們成就了今天的我們，成為擁有 20 多年輝煌業績的行業領導者，為迎接我們面前的機遇和挑戰做好了準備。

With these introductory comments, we are now prepared to take your questions.

通過這些介紹性評論，我們現在準備好回答您的問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui。

Your 1-in-250 PML to tangible equity of 8% as of 1/1 wasn't too dissimilar to your 7.7% as of September 30. So I'm wondering what made you pause to incrementally take more exposure? Did that have anything to do with less retro capacity or your view of ROEs based on pricing for that incremental cat exposure?

截至 1 月 1 日，您的 250 分之一的 PML 與有形資產的 8% 與截至 9 月 30 日的 7.7% 並沒有太大不同。所以我想知道是什麼讓您停下來逐步增加風險敞口？這與較少的追溯容量或您基於增加的巨災風險定價的 ROE 看法有什麼關係嗎？

Yes. I think this number -- interesting, this number is one region, one area, one peak zone. What is not seen in the numbers, and we'll have a more thorough discussion at the Q1 call is that we've increased cat exposure across a wider range of sub zones. And that doesn't really come across through that Tri-County. And I remind you, Tracy that the Tri-County renewal is going to be more important and more apparent at the June 1 renewal. So it's also one first step into it. So we have grown a European exposure because the rates were still pretty good there. Significantly, it would not show up into that one single number, right? This is sort of a -- it relies sort of the true increase in allocated capital to catastrophe. If you look at the aggregate number, which is a better reflection there is an yearly increase, that will be commensurate. It actually would -- you'll see the premium increase and the cap allocation increase or it will make sense to you.

是的。我認為這個數字——很有趣，這個數字是一個區域、一個區域、一個峰值區域。數字中沒有看到的是，我們將在第一季度的電話會議上進行更深入的討論，即我們在更廣泛的子區域中增加了貓的暴露。這並沒有真正通過那個三縣遇到。我提醒你，特雷西，三縣續約將在 6 月 1 日的續約中變得更加重要和明顯。所以這也是其中的第一步。所以我們增加了歐洲風險敞口，因為那裡的利率仍然相當不錯。重要的是，它不會出現在那個單一的數字中，對吧？這有點——它依賴於分配給災難的資本的真正增加。如果你看一下總數，這更好地反映了每年的增長，那將是相稱的。它實際上會——你會看到保費增加和上限分配增加，或者它對你有意義。

Okay. That's very helpful. So as you look through the year, even though 25% is your maximum threshold, where do you think you could realistically land based on your risk appetite?

好的。這很有幫助。因此，當您回顧這一年時，即使 25% 是您的最大門檻，您認為根據您的風險偏好，您實際可以到達哪裡？

The question -- this is a great question. Tracy, but our typical answer is, you tell me what the rate levels are like, and we'll tell you what we think we can do. We have a plan based on certain various levels of rate changes in terms of condition changes by zone, by region, and our team, as you can appreciate, is willing and able to operate on that basis. If you take a step back, I think the overall capital position of the company is, we have plenty of opportunities to deploy. It's hard for us right now to see going all the way to 25%, but certainly, we have room to grow, and we have the capital and the relationships to do so.

這個問題——這是一個很好的問題。特雷西，但我們通常的回答是，你告訴我費率水平是什麼樣的，我們會告訴你我們認為我們可以做什麼。我們有一個計劃，該計劃基於按區域、按地區的條件變化的某些不同級別的費率變化，正如您所理解的，我們的團隊願意並能夠在此基礎上運作。如果你退一步說，我認為公司的整體資本狀況是，我們有很多機會可以部署。我們現在很難看到一路上升到 25%，但可以肯定的是，我們有增長的空間，我們有資本和關係來做到這一點。

Okay. And also really quickly on the reinsurance side, in recent times, you focused more on quota share over XOL. So with hard pricing, where do you see the best opportunities? I'm thinking about lower ceding commissions on quota shares and the higher rate online on the XOL side?

好的。在再保險方面也很快，最近，你更多地關注 XOL 的配額份額。那麼對於硬定價，您在哪裡看到最好的機會？我正在考慮降低配額份額的轉讓佣金和 XOL 方面的更高在線費率？

So I think it's across the board. You just mentioned that we have improved economics both on the quarter share in excess of loss. I think that the numbers you see in Q4, a lot of it has to do with our recent growth in the quota share that we've written. I think by virtue of the cat itself, as you -- as we just talked about it a few months ago, increasing. I think that we would be in a position to increase our excess of loss contribution to the bottom line.

所以我認為這是全面的。你剛剛提到我們在季度份額超過虧損方面都改善了經濟狀況。我認為你在第四季度看到的數字，很大程度上與我們最近寫的配額份額的增長有關。我想憑藉貓本身，就像你一樣 - 正如我們幾個月前剛剛談到的那樣，正在增加。我認為我們將能夠增加我們對利潤的超額損失貢獻。

But when the hard market is around, which we still see on the reinsurance side and the insurance and the P&C side, we have a tendency to migrate towards a quota share. There's a few reasons for that. Number one, one of the big reasons that we like to talk about is, you inherit some diversification within that portfolio that you otherwise would not necessarily get from a net excess of loss perspective. And we really, really like this, and we like to be closer to the rate change, right? When you're on a quota share basis, you're side-by-side with a client as opposed to an excess of loss, you need to be relying on your sole pricing to make it work. So over time, when the market gets harder, I think you will expect us and as part of the cycle management, to underwrite more quota share versus excess of loss. This year, they're both. This year, they're both pretty good.

但是當硬市場出現時，我們在再保險方面以及保險和財產險方面仍然看到這種情況，我們傾向於轉向配額份額。有幾個原因。第一，我們喜歡談論的一個重要原因是，你繼承了該投資組合中的一些多元化，否則你不一定會從淨超額損失的角度獲得。我們真的非常喜歡這樣，我們希望更接近利率變化，對吧？當您以配額份額為基礎時，您與客戶並肩作戰而不是過度損失，您需要依靠您的唯一定價來使其發揮作用。因此，隨著時間的推移，當市場變得更加艱難時，我認為你會期望我們和作為周期管理的一部分，承保更多的配額份額而不是超額損失。今年，他們都是。今年，他們倆都不錯。

Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Michael Zaremski。

I'll stick with the primary insurance segment, given I feel like most of the questions will probably be on reinsurance. The growth has been decelerating there a bit. Marc, we heard your prepared remarks. Sounds like you're still excited, but maybe you can kind of talk about our -- what's driving the deceleration? What are you guys seeing? I don't know if it's worth bifurcating between kind of E&S excess surplus lines versus non-E&S. I'm just curious if the discipline there is dissipating a bit more versus reinsurance?

我會堅持主要保險部分，因為我覺得大多數問題可能都與再保險有關。那裡的增長一直在減速。馬克，我們聽到了你準備好的發言。聽起來你仍然很興奮，但也許你可以談談我們的——是什麼導致了減速？你們在看什麼？我不知道是否值得在 E&S 超額盈餘線與非 E&S 之間進行區分。我只是好奇那裡的紀律是否比再保險更消散一點？

Yes. I think we're just experiencing in the fourth quarter. That will probably change in '23. I think opportunities are going to resurface more broadly than we even had in the fourth quarter, right? I think it took a little while to the market to digest E&S and to what it means for the overall market at another market. It's clearing the camp up making -- doing what it needs to do to improve the return on the pricing on the property, which I think also you heard in other calls, I think will impact a broader set of line of business beyond the property exposure.

是的。我認為我們剛剛經歷了第四季度。這可能會在 23 年改變。我認為機會會比我們在第四季度更廣泛地重新出現，對吧？我認為市場需要一段時間來消化 E&S 以及它對另一個市場的整體市場意味著什麼。它正在清理營地——做它需要做的事情來提高房產定價的回報，我想你在其他電話中也聽到過，我認為這將影響更廣泛的業務範圍，超出房產風險敞口.

But if we go back, so if you look at the 70% growth, I mean 70% growth over premium is about 3x the size 3, 4 years ago. We did have a lot of roles in the beginning of our market. So as you get into the late stages, I think 70% could be equivalent to another 50% increase in 2021 or 2020, when we started to lean into the market. So I think this is a natural phenomenon that after a while, you have -- not that you mined everything, but you really have pushed as hard as you could, and we're still pushing hard. Even 70% to me is about 3x the average growth in the premium in the industry. That tells me that we're still seeing a lot of opportunities. But again, like I said, we're later in the stage of the hard tackle.

但如果我們回頭看看 70% 的增長，我的意思是 70% 的保費增長大約是 4 年前 3 的 3 倍。我們在市場初期確實扮演了很多角色。因此，當你進入後期階段時，我認為 70% 可能相當於在 2021 年或 2020 年我們開始向市場傾斜時再增加 50%。所以我認為這是一種自然現象，一段時間後，你已經 - 不是你開采了所有東西，而是你真的盡了最大努力，而我們仍在努力。對我來說，即使是 70%，也大約是行業保費平均增長率的 3 倍。這告訴我，我們仍然看到很多機會。但同樣，就像我說的，我們處於硬鏟球階段的後期。

And I think that we'll see a rejuvenation, if you will, of that growth possibly because the insurance companies are going to have to increase, as we all know, their pricing. One is the property cap and higher retention, while they have more risk retained. So -- and we're participating like the other guys on the insurance market, and we expect market to sort of getting a second bite of the apple, if you will, of a hardening market.

而且我認為，如果你願意的話，我們會看到這種增長的複蘇，這可能是因為眾所周知，保險公司將不得不提高他們的定價。一是財產上限和更高的保留率，同時保留了更多的風險。所以——我們像保險市場上的其他人一樣參與進來，我們希望市場能從某種程度上咬第二口蘋果，如果你願意的話，市場會變硬。

And as a follow-up, sticking with the primary insurance segment. So it sounds like the opportunities might fall within the property space, if I'm interpreting your comments correctly. And when we're thinking about the segment's combined ratio, I feel like looking at my older notes, it was kind of mid-90s. Was the goal -- is that still what you're thinking? Or as time has been so good in terms of the market cycle that we should be thinking lower 90s is the more near-term goal?

作為後續行動，堅持主要保險領域。所以聽起來機會可能屬於財產空間，如果我正確地解釋你的評論。當我們考慮該部門的綜合比率時，我覺得看看我的舊筆記，那是 90 年代中期。目標是——這仍然是你的想法嗎？或者，就市場週期而言，時間已經如此之好，以至於我們應該考慮 90 年代以下是更近期的目標？

I think we said a few things about the combined ratio. The 95% was meant as a target back in '16, '17 when interest rates were quite a bit lower. They went down further. As you know, that meant that we needed to have a lower combined ratio targets, which we targeted over last 2, 3 years, that's where you see the impact of. I think from our perspective, low 90s is still -- or high 80s is sort of what we're still pushing for because within the interest rates, they may revert back and come down after a while in a year, 1.5 years from now. So you don't want to be rushing recognize all the various interest rates, although we are currently -- we are not pricing into our business, but we tend to take a longer view like we do on the trend on our inflation. And we're thinking the rates might come back down. So I think we would still target a lower 90s to high 80s to get the returns that we think we deserve.

我想我們說了一些關於綜合比率的事情。 95% 是 16 年和 17 年的目標，當時利率要低得多。他們繼續往下走。如你所知，這意味著我們需要有一個較低的綜合比率目標，這是我們在過去 2、3 年的目標，這就是你看到影響的地方。我認為從我們的角度來看，90 年代的低點仍然是 - 或者 80 年代的高點仍然是我們仍在推動的，因為在利率範圍內，它們可能會在一年後，即 1.5 年後恢復並下降。所以你不想急於承認所有不同的利率，儘管我們目前 - 我們沒有為我們的業務定價，但我們傾向於像我們對通脹趨勢所做的那樣採取更長遠的觀點。我們認為利率可能會回落。所以我認為我們仍然會把目標定在 90 歲以下到 80 歲以上，以獲得我們認為應得的回報。

Our next question comes from the line of Jamminder Bhullar with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自 JPMorgan 的 Jamminder Bhullar。

First, I had a question on the reinsurance business. If you look at your premium growth, even excluding the sort of large transactions, onetime transactions, you mentioned the number is extremely strong and obviously, doesn't have the impact of 1/1 renewals in it. So what's really driving that? And do you expect some of those factors that drove the strong growth to continue into '23 as well?

首先，我有一個關於再保險業務的問題。如果你看看你的保費增長，即使不包括那種大額交易，一次性交易，你提到這個數字非常強勁，顯然，沒有 1/1 續約的影響。那麼真正推動它的是什麼？您是否預計推動強勁增長的某些因素也將持續到 23 年？

Yes. I mean the one thing that right from the get go, I think, you need to appreciate -- the quota share business is something that we might have written a deal in January 1 of '22, and the premium gets written over the 4 quarters. So we're benefiting from that. That's showing up in each of the 4 quarters. If the underlying rate increases also from the ceding companies are higher than what we might have expected at the start that gets adjusted throughout the year. So a couple of factors were, basically, we're just following effectively the fortunes of the ceding companies. But still, I think our teams deserve a lot of credit for going after these opportunities, be responsive to the client needs, being -- providing good capacity with good ratings, et cetera.

是的。我的意思是，從一開始就有一件事，我認為，你需要理解——配額份額業務是我們可能在 2022 年 1 月 1 日達成的協議，溢價在 4 個季度內寫入.所以我們從中受益。這在 4 個季度中的每個季度都出現了。如果分出公司的基礎利率漲幅也高於我們一開始的預期，那麼全年都會進行調整。所以有幾個因素，基本上，我們只是在有效地關注轉讓公司的命運。但是，我仍然認為我們的團隊在追求這些機會、響應客戶需求、提供良好的能力和良好的評級等方面值得讚揚。

Does that continue on in '23? We think so. We think the market is there and the (inaudible) growth was not only in (inaudible) business, it's pretty much in (inaudible) business. Property and properties have gathered a lot of attention in the last few weeks, and -- but still, I mean all lines of business, other specialty, casualty, marine, aviation, remain, I think all lines are, I think, in a position to really keep growing at a good (inaudible).

這會在 23 年繼續嗎？我們是這麼認為的。我們認為市場就在那裡，（聽不清）增長不僅在（聽不清）業務中，而且在（聽不清）業務中幾乎是這樣。在過去的幾周里，財產和財產受到了很多關注，而且——但我的意思是，所有的業務領域、其他專業、傷亡、海事、航空，仍然存在，我認為所有的領域，我認為，在真正保持良好增長的位置（聽不清）。

Okay. And then just shifting on to MI. Your loss ratio is obviously very good, but I think the loss pick did pick up a little bit in the fourth quarter. So is that more sort of national driven? Or is it more regional to where you're starting to see some maybe softening in the market in certain regions or states?

好的。然後轉到 MI。你的損失率顯然非常好，但我認為損失率在第四季度確實有所回升。那麼這更像是國家驅動的嗎？或者它是否更具區域性，您開始看到某些地區或州的市場可能出現疲軟？

Well, the -- we've navigated through the regional differences in our pricing. So I think we have constructed our portfolio that we're very happy with. Stayed away from what we perceive to be the more dangerous areas and underpriced areas. So I think that's kind of showing up in our performance over time.

好吧，我們已經了解了定價的區域差異。所以我認為我們已經構建了我們非常滿意的投資組合。遠離我們認為更危險的區域和定價過低的區域。所以我認為隨著時間的推移，這會在我們的表現中有所體現。

In terms of reserving, I'd say, 2 things. One, the delinquency rates are still very low. So it's not like we're really seeing pressure at this point in terms of the higher level of delinquencies being reported. And the loss ratio pick is really more a function of us being a bit more prudent. I think there's a little bit of uncertainty with their -- home prices, are they about to come down? Does that create some potential pressure? We think we're very, very aware of that, whether there's a recession, et cetera. But we're still very, very positive on the segments. It's just a realization that this is maybe a likely riskier environment than we were in like a year or 2 years ago, and our reserves are going to reflect that.

在保留方面，我會說兩件事。第一，拖欠率仍然很低。因此，就所報告的更高水平的拖欠而言，我們目前並沒有真正看到壓力。損失率的選擇實際上更多地取決於我們是否更加謹慎。我認為他們的房價有一點不確定性，他們會下降嗎？這會產生一些潛在的壓力嗎？我們認為我們非常、非常清楚是否會出現經濟衰退等等。但我們對這些細分市場仍然非常非常積極。只是意識到這可能比我們一年或兩年前所處的環境風險更大，我們的儲備將反映這一點。

our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of them here for me. First, Marc, Francois, you guys typically provide in your 10-Qs the 1-in-250 for the other regions well, Northeast and Gulf of Mexico, U.K. I'm wondering if you could give -- have those statistics so we can get a better sense of what type of growth you're going to see at 1/1 renewals? And maybe focus also on Europe because I know Europe was, you guys got a good operation there and a lot of opportunities there.

他們中的幾個人在這裡等我。首先，Marc、Francois，你們通常會在 10-Qs 中提供其他地區的 250 分之一，例如東北部和英國墨西哥灣。我想知道你們是否可以提供這些統計數據，以便我們可以更好地了解您將在 1/1 續訂時看到哪種類型的增長？也許還關注歐洲，因為我知道歐洲曾經在那裡，你們在那裡經營得很好，那裡有很多機會。

Yes. I mean the ones we reported really a couple more regions. We don't have -- I don't want to have those handy. I think the most -- to Marc's point, I think a lot of the growth that we saw, at least at 1/1, will come through in regions that were, I'd say, we were probably a little bit underweight in the past. So that's going to show up in Q1 premium and for the rest of the year, but in terms of P&L, it really doesn't have an impact.

是的。我的意思是我們報告的區域確實多了幾個區域。我們沒有——我不想把那些放在手邊。我認為最重要的是——就馬克的觀點而言，我認為我們看到的很多增長，至少是 1/1，將來自那些我想說的地區，我們可能在過去的。所以這將出現在第一季度的保費和今年剩餘時間裡，但就損益而言，它確實沒有影響。

Got you. Okay. And then second question. I'm just curious, Marc, if I take a look back -- and I'm going to date myself a little bit here. If I look back at which your underlying kind of combined ratios looks like back in 2003, 2004 after the last hard market, you're getting pretty close there in the reinsurance business. Are we getting to the point where we're kind of seeing max margins in that business? Maybe you get a little bit more in 2023, but how much more do you think you really get here?

明白了好的。然後是第二個問題。我只是很好奇，馬克，如果我回顧過去——我會在這里和自己約會一下。如果我回顧一下你的基礎綜合比率在 2003 年、2004 年在上一次艱難的市場之後是什麼樣的，你在再保險業務中已經非常接近了。我們是否已經到了可以在該業務中看到最大利潤的地步？也許你在 2023 年會得到更多一點，但你認為你真的會得到多少？

It's a really good question, Brian. I don't know the answer to that. I like the comparison 2002, '03. I would actually like to compare probably more like a combination of '02, '03, maybe '04 in liability and maybe '06 or '07 on the property side. So I don't know what that means. We haven't blended growing the combined ratio that we had in these 2 years, but that probably would be close to what we can do.

這是一個非常好的問題，布賴恩。我不知道答案。我喜歡比較 2002，'03。實際上，我想比較的可能更像是責任方面的 '02、'03、'04，以及財產方面的 '06 或 '07。所以我不知道那是什麼意思。我們沒有混合增加我們在這兩年中的綜合比率，但這可能接近我們可以做的。

I mean, look, there's a lot of things that are different this time around. The interest rates are lower than they were before internationally. More specifically, we're an international diversified reinsurance company. Hard to tell, but it's certainly going in a way of getting above our long-term ROE targets. That's for sure, and that's really what, in the end, what really drives us, as you know.

我的意思是，看，這次有很多不同之處。利率低於以前的國際利率。更具體地說，我們是一家國際多元化再保險公司。很難說，但它肯定會超過我們的長期 ROE 目標。這是肯定的，正如你所知，這才是真正驅動我們的最終動力。

Our next question comes from the line of Yaron Kinar with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Yaron Kinar 系列。

My first question. Just looking at the ROE profile of the company, clearly, there's upwards momentum here. Can you maybe talk about, a, what the target would be? And b, if you'd see it coming more from -- or the expansion from here on coming more from NII or more from underwriting?

我的第一個問題。只要看看公司的 ROE 概況，顯然，這裡有上升的勢頭。你能不能談談，a，目標是什麼？ b，如果你看到它更多地來自——或者從這裡開始的擴張更多地來自 NII 或更多來自承保？

Yes. I'd like to think we got room to grow. But you're right, I think the biggest probably opportunity is NII, just with the leverage and the correction or the increase in interest rates we saw last year. I think that's going to take still a little bit of time to show up in the numbers. But as we look forward over the next 12 to 24 months, I'd like to think that, that will -- there's leverage there that we can show up in the numbers. In terms of the segments results, I think they can all -- mortgages, again, the reported results, I mean significant reserve releases, which certainly helped the bottom line and the ROEs that we -- that are reported. But we think the segments, the fundamentals underlying each of the 3 segments are still very good and that they can actually still deliver very healthy results.

是的。我想我們有成長的空間。但你是對的，我認為最大的機會可能是 NII，只是我們去年看到的槓桿和修正或利率上升。我認為這還需要一點時間才能顯示在數字中。但當我們展望未來 12 到 24 個月時，我想，那將會——我們可以在數字中顯示出槓桿作用。就細分結果而言，我認為它們都可以——抵押貸款，再次，報告的結果，我的意思是大量的準備金釋放，這肯定有助於報告的底線和股本回報率。但我們認為這三個細分市場的基本面仍然非常好，而且它們實際上仍然可以帶來非常健康的結果。

Great. And then my second question, just looking at the insurance business, it sounds like you think that there may be some inflection to accelerating growth again in '23. Can you maybe help us think about the impact of the reinsurance market, kind of available capacity, cost of reinsurance, how that plays into your -- the potential growth that you see for net premiums written in '23 in insurance?

偉大的。然後我的第二個問題，只看保險業務，聽起來你認為在 23 年再次加速增長可能會有一些變化。您能否幫助我們考慮再保險市場的影響、可用容量的類型、再保險成本，以及它如何影響您的——您看到的保險業 23 年淨保費的潛在增長？

Great question, Yaron, because I think what we're going to see through '23 is a recognition. I mean it's already there, but it's probably really coming home and the (inaudible) is for us as a saving company, right? I mean (inaudible) and our clients and ceding companies that more needs to be charged to the insured that they can in turn pay the reinsurer they need to buy. Even if they went there, right, we heard that a lot of increasing retention, there's still more volatility that's absorbed by those insurance carriers, which should lead to, again, needing a higher rate, everything else being equal.

很好的問題，Yaron，因為我認為我們將通過 23 年看到的是一種認可。我的意思是它已經在那裡，但它可能真的回家了，而且（聽不清）是給我們作為一家儲蓄公司的，對吧？我的意思是（聽不清）我們的客戶和分保公司需要向被保險人收取更多費用，他們可以反過來支付他們需要購買的再保險公司。即使他們去了那裡，對，我們聽說保留率增加了很多，這些保險公司吸收了更多的波動性，這應該再次導致需要更高的利率，其他一切都是平等的。

So I think what we're seeing is -- what we'll see is gradually -- and again, on the reinsurance, I think there is a volatility around, you can just renew business 1/1 and everything changes on the time, right, on one stroke of a pen.

所以我認為我們看到的是——我們將看到的是逐漸的——再一次，在再保險方面，我認為存在波動，你可以只更新業務 1/1，一切都會隨時間發生變化，對，大筆一揮。

On the insurance side, it takes 12 month period to transition and transform and then reprice the whole business. So that's what I think we're going to be seeing. That's why I'm also fairly optimistic is because we're going to have that repricing occurring throughout 2023 and beyond. And alongside with those, between all of us here, the terms and conditions are also going to be on the table, right, on the docket for companies to present to find a way to not curtail, but find a way to have a better risk sharing with their insurers when it comes down to other policy.

在保險方面，需要12個月的時間來過渡和轉型，然後重新定價整個業務。所以這就是我認為我們將要看到的。這就是為什麼我也相當樂觀，因為我們將在整個 2023 年及以後進行重新定價。除了那些，在我們所有人之間，條款和條件也將擺在桌面上，對，在公司的日程表上，以找到一種不削減的方法，但找到一種更好的風險的方法當涉及到其他政策時，與他們的保險公司分享。

So I guess for that reason, that's what underlies is that sticker shock, not sticker shock, but good increase in reinsurance at the beginning of the year that we'll have to filter through all the plans and budgeting for all the insurance companies, including ourselves as we go forward in '23. So it's going to be a slow motion but it's still going to happen. That's why I'm optimistic.

所以我想出於這個原因，這就是標價衝擊的基礎，而不是標價衝擊，而是今年年初再保險的良好增長，我們必須過濾所有保險公司的所有計劃和預算，包括我們自己在 23 年前進。所以這將是一個慢動作，但它仍然會發生。這就是為什麼我很樂觀。

Got it. And I apologize, I'm going to try and sneak one more in here. Clarification. When you talked about kind of targeting low 90s, high 80s combined ratio, was that a reported combined ratio in the insurance segment?

知道了。我很抱歉，我會嘗試在這裡再偷偷放一個。澄清。當你談到某種針對低 90 年代、高 80 年代的綜合比率時，這是保險部門報告的綜合比率嗎？

That's policy year target effective (inaudible) it's expected, right? Plus or minus, as you know, in our space, is volatility around the expected numbers, but it is long-term expected.

這是預期的有效政策年度目標（聽不清），對嗎？如您所知，在我們的空間中，正負是圍繞預期數字的波動，但這是長期預期。

Because you've been running at kind of mid-90s. So where is that improvement coming from? Is it mostly just better rates and in risk selection?

因為你一直在 90 年代中期跑步。那麼這種改進來自哪裡呢？它主要只是更好的利率和風險選擇嗎？

Well, we're running -- we're running about 90 now, and I think that we still continue to see improvement in pricing. So that would -- that should help us get there somehow.

好吧，我們正在運行——我們現在運行了大約 90，而且我認為我們仍然會繼續看到定價的改善。那麼這將 - 這應該可以幫助我們以某種方式到達那裡。

Our next question comes from the line of Ryan Tunis with Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Ryan Tunis with Autonomous。

First question. I guess following up on Tracy, could you give us some indication of, I guess, how you're viewing your overall cat budget this year relative to '21 based on what you saw with 1/1 renewals? Should we expect to kind of the expected cat ratio to be higher?

第一個問題。我想跟進特雷西，你能給我們一些指示嗎，我想，根據你看到的 1/1 續約，你如何看待今年相對於 21 年的整體貓預算？我們是否應該期望某種預期的巨災比率更高？

The cat ratio or cat? I mean, in terms of...

貓比還是貓？我的意思是，就...

Cat load.

貓負載。

Cat load. Dollars of cap, yes, we think will go up. No question. We've been targeting or target -- I mean our cat load in '22 was, call it, $80 million a quarter. Now it's probably between $100 million and $120 million for the first quarter of '23 based on what we wrote, right? And we'll see how that develops for the rest of the year. I mean, depending on how the (inaudible) renewals, how those kind of materialize. There is, I'd say, a good probability that it will keep going up throughout the year. But based on the in-force portfolio that we have currently for the first quarter, I mean that's kind of how we see the exposure to the cat losses.

貓負載。美元上限，是的，我們認為會上漲。沒有問題。我們一直在瞄准或瞄準——我的意思是我們在 22 年的貓負荷是，稱之為每季度 8000 萬美元。根據我們寫的，現在 23 年第一季度可能在 1 億到 1.2 億美元之間，對吧？我們將看到今年餘下時間的發展情況。我的意思是，取決於（聽不清）續約的方式，這些續約的實現方式。我想說的是，它很可能會在全年繼續上漲。但根據我們目前第一季度的有效投資組合，我的意思是我們如何看待巨災損失的風險敞口。

Perfect. That's helpful. And then add one for Marc, I guess, on the man-made cat side, which isn't something we've talked about too much, but I would think that's one of the better markets right now on the reinsurance side. And I guess just trying to size that, whether or not maybe some of the rate increases post-Ukraine, if that can move the needle relative to property capital. Just looking at your marine and aviation premium, it's actually pretty chunky relative to property cat. So if you could just give us some indication of can that move the needle? Is that something that we should be paying more attention to in terms of the markets you're seeing that are getting incremental firming that could help Arch?

完美的。這很有幫助。然後為 Marc 添加一個，我想，在人造貓方面，這不是我們談論太多的東西，但我認為這是目前再保險方面更好的市場之一。我想只是想確定一下規模，無論烏克蘭後是否會增加一些利率，如果這可以相對於房地產資本產生影響。看看你的海運和航空保費，它實際上相對於財產貓來說相當厚實。所以，如果你能給我們一些可以移動針頭的指示嗎？就您所看到的可以幫助 Arch 的市場逐漸穩固而言，我們是否應該更加關注這一點？

It's a good question, Ryan. I think the one thing with an event such as Ukraine, which is a war event, there's actually a specific market for those kinds of risks. So it's not like it's included part of the overall coverages for cat or whatever else out there. There was some -- there definitely is a result of that event in attempt to exclude a lot of these war events and bring them back into the proper aviation war or marine war market, for instance. So yes, there is a lot of -- obviously, a lot of activity there, a lot of rate increases there. We're participating in there, but those markets are to begin with pretty small. So that's why I think you'll see some improvement, but it may not be necessarily enough to move the needle for the industry, even though it's a very, very healthy proposition that rates have gone through the roof as you can appreciate for the right reasons in those lines of business.

這是個好問題，瑞安。我認為，對於像烏克蘭這樣的戰爭事件，有一件事實際上是針對此類風險的特定市場。所以它不像是貓或其他任何東西的整體覆蓋範圍的一部分。例如，有一些 - 肯定是該事件的結果，試圖排除許多這些戰爭事件並將它們帶回適當的航空戰爭或海洋戰爭市場。所以是的，那裡有很多 - 顯然，那裡有很多活動，那裡有很多利率上漲。我們正在那裡參與，但這些市場開始時非常小。所以這就是為什麼我認為你會看到一些改善，但它可能不足以推動行業發展，儘管這是一個非常非常健康的提議，即利率已經飆升，正如你可以理解的那樣這些業務的原因。

Yes. Makes sense. And then just lastly, the acquisition expense ratio has been kind of hard to pin down in Arch over the past few years, but it's gone up. Obviously, it sounds like there were some changes in terms of ceding commission structures, things like that at 1/1. Is there anything directional you can say about maybe how the acquisition expense ratios could move in '23 versus '22? Or do we just kind of expect something relatively similar?

是的。說得通。最後，在過去幾年中，很難確定 Arch 的收購費用比率，但它已經上升了。顯然，這聽起來像是在讓出佣金結構方面發生了一些變化，比如 1/1。關於收購費用比率在 23 年與 22 年的變化情況，您有什麼方向可以說的嗎？或者我們只是期待一些相對相似的東西？

Yes. I don't think it's going to move a whole lot from where it's been. I think there's been a lot of shifts in the mix of business over the years, right? As particularly as our insurance book in the U.K. has grown, that's a bit higher acquisition ratio, different kind of reinsurance purchasing decision. So there's a long list of reasons or explanations as to why it is where it is now. And obviously, what we focus about -- what we're focused on is the bottom line returns whether -- if we're going to pay a bit more acquisition, we certainly think we're going to get a lower loss ratio and that has been the case. So -- but for your modeling, we kind of, I think, exercise. I assume something pretty similar to '22 as a starting point, and we'll keep you updated as the year goes on.

是的。我不認為它會從原來的地方移動很多。我認為這些年來業務組合發生了很多變化，對嗎？特別是隨著我們在英國的保險賬簿的增長，這是更高的收購率，不同類型的再保險購買決策。所以有一長串原因或解釋為什麼它現在在哪裡。顯然，我們關注的是——我們關注的是底線回報——如果我們要支付更多的收購費用，我們當然認為我們會得到更低的損失率，而且一直是這樣。所以 - 但對於你的建模，我認為我們有點鍛煉。我假設一些與 22 年非常相似的東西作為起點，我們會隨著時間的推移讓你更新。

Our next question comes from the line of Elyse Greenspan with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自 Elyse Greenspan 與 Wells Fargo 的對話。

My first question, I guess, is going back to the reinsurance margin discussion that came up earlier. So do you guys have a flat PML and you guys are seeing 30% to 50% rate increases in cat? Wouldn't that triangulate into margin improvement coming through in the reinsurance book in 2023?

我想我的第一個問題是回到之前提出的再保險保證金討論。那麼，你們的 PML 是否平坦，你們看到 cat 的比率增加了 30% 到 50%？這不會導致 2023 年再保險賬簿中的利潤率提高嗎？

Well, just -- if I could just isolate. First, we wonder where you were, so good to see you there. Second, I think the -- if you look at the property cat itself, I think it's -- the returns have dramatically improved. But as you know, for us, it's going to be incrementally, of course, accretive to our bottom line, but we're not -- it's not the biggest line of business for us. So that's what allows us, we believe, the opportunity to -- and room to grow the way we think we could grow in 2023. So it's hard to say how much more, but the property cat itself, the market itself has significant margin improvement.

好吧，只是——如果我能隔離就好了。首先，我們想知道你在哪裡，很高興在那裡見到你。其次，我認為——如果你看一下房地產貓本身，我認為——回報已經大大提高了。但正如你所知，對我們來說，這當然會逐漸增加我們的利潤，但我們不是 - 這不是我們最大的業務線。因此，我們相信，這就是讓我們有機會 - 以及按照我們認為可以在 2023 年增長的方式增長的空間。所以很難說還有多少，但房地產貓本身，市場本身的利潤率顯著提高.

Would you say -- building on that, Marc, and would you say that of all your business lines as you sit here today, the line with the best expected return in '23 would be catastrophe reinsurance?

你會說——在此基礎上，馬克，你會說在你今天坐在這裡的所有業務線中，23 年預期回報最好的線是巨災再保險嗎？

It's up there, but there are others that we don't advertise too much that our really, really healthy and getting better as we speak. And as big, if not has been -- probably, some of them might are as big as a property cat -- property cat writing. So we have quite a few who are giving us pretty high returns, but it is up there. It's up there. It's beyond -- you heard on the calls. This is a good time to write property cat itself, a really good time.

它就在那裡，但還有其他一些我們沒有過多宣傳我們真的非常健康並且在我們說話時變得更好。和財產貓一樣大，如果不是——可能，其中一些可能和財產貓一樣大——財產貓寫作。所以我們有很多人給了我們相當高的回報，但它在那裡。它在上面。它超越了——你在電話中聽到了。這是編寫 property cat 本身的好時機，真是個好時機。

And then you said, right -- on the PML discussion, you had mentioned, right, that we need to kind of see how things come together at June 1 that, that could also be a good opportunity. What could derail this? Is it just alternative capital and more capital coming into the reinsurance space as you think leading up to June 1? And even when we think beyond that, what are you guys concerned about that could derail the uplift that we've seen in the catastrophe reinsurance market?

然後你說，對 - 在 PML 討論中，你已經提到，對，我們需要看看事情如何在 6 月 1 日匯集在一起，這也可能是一個很好的機會。什麼能破壞這一切？正如您認為在 6 月 1 日之前，它只是替代資本和更多資本進入再保險領域嗎？甚至當我們超越這一點時，你們擔心什麼會破壞我們在巨災再保險市場上看到的增長？

I mean it's hard to imagine, Elyse. I think the third-party capital you mentioned, you still -- we're in a wait-and-see attitude. The U.S. renewal, as we all know, is a small portion of the overall cat writing in the year. So more has to happen and as we all know -- and in line with what our Tri-County with a Florida exposure. Florida is the biggest exposure. So it's hard to tell what could derail it. I'm trying to think out loud there the third-party help coming in. I don't see it being a case. No cat in the first half of the year. While we better have -- it would be great for an industry at least take advantage of the less cat activity.

我的意思是很難想像，愛麗絲。我認為你提到的第三方資本，你仍然 - 我們處於觀望態度。美改，眾所周知，是全年貓文整體的一小部分。因此，正如我們所知，還有更多事情要做——並且與我們在佛羅里達州曝光的 Tri-County 一致。佛羅里達州是最大的風險敞口。所以很難說什麼會破壞它。我正在嘗試大聲思考第三方的幫助。我不認為這是個案。上半年沒有貓。雖然我們最好有——這對一個行業來說是很好的，至少可以利用較少的貓活動。

No, it's hard to see anything at least because I think that the psychology of the market is quarry of the cat of remediating what needs to be remediated in a property cat space at all levels. And from the C-suite all the way down to the underwriting system desk, I think it's clearly a recognition that we need more. I think the only thing I could say is, the one thing that I could say just to help you out here, I think that will make sense to you that we may have a bit less than perhaps some people have budgeted or maybe a bit more than budgeted price increase when we have a delta around what we see. But in terms of core capital needs and supply and demand, I don't see a major shift. That was a long question because I was thinking out loud here, so there you go.

不，很難看到任何東西，至少是因為我認為市場心理是貓的獵物，需要在各個層面的房地產貓空間中修復需要修復的東西。從 C-suite 一直到承保系統服務台，我認為這顯然表明我們需要更多。我想我唯一能說的是，我能說的一件事只是為了幫助你在這裡，我認為這對你來說是有意義的，我們可能比一些人的預算少一點，或者多一點當我們看到的情況有差異時，價格會比預算的漲幅高。但就核心資本需求和供需而言，我認為沒有重大轉變。這是一個很長的問題，因為我在這里大聲思考，所以你去吧。

Our next question comes from the line of Meyer Shields with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 Meyer Shields with KBW 系列。

Great. I hope this wasn't covered. I missed about a minute of the call. But I was hoping to maybe dig into the nonrecurring transactions in reinsurance I'm assuming this was a retroactive reinsurance. I was hoping you could talk about specifically the sort of risks or the lines of business that you're assuming? And maybe give us an update on what that market looks like now.

偉大的。我希望這沒有被覆蓋。我錯過了大約一分鐘的通話時間。但我希望能夠深入研究再保險中的非經常性交易，我假設這是一種追溯再保險。我希望你能具體談談你所承擔的風險類型或業務範圍？也許給我們更新一下這個市場現在的樣子。

Yes. I mean to keep it at a fairly high level, those are general -- I mean, I consider them to be kind of capital relief, capital support transactions for a variety of reasons. Companies that have grown a lot under some rating agency pressure, any capital relief, the companies starting put some exposures behind them, et cetera. So -- but just to clarify that those are not retroactive. So they're all insurance-accounted transactions, all insurance or reinsurance accounting, so that flows through our premium, et cetera. They are across -- you saw it in our lines of business. They are -- they did hit multiple of our lines of business. Some were other specialties, some are casualty, some are a little bit of property so it's a spread.

是的。我的意思是將其保持在相當高的水平，這些都是一般性的——我的意思是，出於各種原因，我認為它們是一種資本減免、資本支持交易。在某些評級機構的壓力、任何資本救濟下成長了很多的公司，這些公司開始將一些風險敞口拋在腦後，等等。所以——但只是為了澄清這些不具有追溯力。所以它們都是保險會計交易，所有保險或再保險會計，所以這些都流經我們的保費，等等。他們是交叉的——你在我們的業務領域看到了這一點。他們是——他們確實打擊了我們的多個業務線。有些是其他專業，有些是傷亡，有些是一點點財產，所以這是一個差價。

But it's all in a vibrant market. I mean there's a lot of pain that some companies are experiencing right now, and they're working for solutions. And again, we're -- we think we have a strong balance sheet and capital to support them. So I think -- we don't know if they're going to happen again. There's -- those are lumpy. But if and when they are presented to us, we're happy to get consider them and we want in a while, we end up writing a few of them.

但這一切都發生在一個充滿活力的市場中。我的意思是，一些公司現在正在經歷很多痛苦，他們正在努力尋找解決方案。再一次，我們 - 我們認為我們擁有強大的資產負債表和資本來支持他們。所以我認為——我們不知道它們是否會再次發生。有——那些是塊狀的。但是，如果當它們呈現給我們時，我們很樂意考慮它們，我們希望過一會兒，我們最終會寫出其中的一些。

Okay. No, that's helpful. Second question on mortgage insurance. And I don't even know how to phrase this, but you put up very conservative reserves for mortgage insurance over the course of COVID. And I'm wondering how much of that unusual reserve is still there because clearly, speaking at least for myself, we haven't done a great job of forecasting reserve releases in that unit.

好的。不，那很有幫助。關於抵押保險的第二個問題。我什至不知道如何表達這一點，但你在 COVID 期間為抵押貸款保險準備了非常保守的準備金。我想知道還有多少不尋常的儲備仍然存在，因為很明顯，至少對我自己來說，我們在預測該部門的儲備釋放方面做得不夠好。

Well, it's a great question, which is becoming harder and harder to answer because in the early days, no question that we had adjusted our -- because so many loan delinquencies that were in our inventory were in forbearance and trying to make the distinction between kind of forbearance and noncore bearing delinquencies and how much of that worth was -- a new concept or new kind of reality we were facing. Over time, I mean it's been 3 years now. I think the reality is like the inventory is somewhat chemical mingle. So we don't really think of loans and forbearance in a (inaudible) differently than we look at the other loans, even though we know there's still a few of them in the inventory.

好吧，這是一個很好的問題，這個問題變得越來越難回答，因為在早期，毫無疑問我們已經調整了我們的——因為我們庫存中的許多貸款拖欠都在忍耐中，並試圖區分一種寬容和非核心軸承拖欠以及其中有多少價值 - 我們面臨的新概念或新現實。隨著時間的推移，我的意思是現在已經 3 年了。我認為現實就像庫存有點化學混合。因此，我們對（聽不清）貸款和寬容的看法與我們對其他貸款的看法並沒有什麼不同，即使我們知道庫存中仍有一些貸款。

So I mean long story to say that it's not something we can quantify directly every quarter anymore, but we still perceive that there's a bit of risk with COVID-related reserves, and that's why we've been holding on to the reserves up to the point where we think we just don't need them. Right now, this quarter was an example where I think the data kind of suggested that we were -- it is the right time to release, but they're more of the reserves that were set up in those years.

所以我的意思是長話短說，這不再是我們每個季度都可以直接量化的東西，但我們仍然認為與 COVID 相關的儲備存在一些風險，這就是為什麼我們一直持有儲備直到我們認為我們只是不需要它們的地方。現在，這個季度就是一個例子，我認為數據有點表明我們——現在是發布的正確時間，但它們更多的是那些年建立的儲備。

Meyer, quickly, I think what Francois is saying is true for all lines of business in historical, but we'll try to take a prudent stance on reserve to ensure we have enough and will let data speak for itself. And this one is very unusual, Meyer, right, and (inaudible) something unlike anything else. It's when we have another one, we'll have a better playbook to use, but we just didn't know. And we still don't know. So not over on (inaudible) forbearance. So it's still coming back in the -- it's not totally gone yet. So that's what leads us to be that much more. From the outside and look like we're conservative, but we think will be prudent and the data speak for itself. And mostly, if it happens that we don't need it, and we'll adjust it based on the data we see.

邁耶，很快，我認為弗朗索瓦所說的對歷史上的所有業務都是正確的，但我們會盡量採取謹慎的儲備立場，以確保我們有足夠的儲備，並讓數據說明一切。這個非常不尋常，Meyer，對，而且（聽不清）與其他任何東西都不一樣。當我們有另一個時，我們會有更好的劇本可以使用，但我們只是不知道。而我們仍然不知道。所以不要過度（聽不清）忍耐。所以它仍在回歸——它還沒有完全消失。所以這就是讓我們變得更多的原因。從外面看我們很保守，但我們認為會很謹慎，數據不言自明。大多數情況下，如果碰巧我們不需要它，我們會根據我們看到的數據進行調整。

We have a follow-up question from the line of Tracy Benguigui with Barclays.

我們有來自巴克萊銀行的 Tracy Benguigui 的後續問題。

I'm wondering what your outlook is on professional lines within your insurance segment? And particularly, what stage you would classify that business in when you went through your stages?

我想知道您對您的保險部門的專業領域有何看法？特別是，當您經歷各個階段時，您會將該業務歸類為哪個階段？

Tracy, would you -- do you include D&O there? Or you just wanted that non -- the ex-D&O. Which lines specifically? Professional lines is a really broad market.

特雷西，你會 - 你在那裡包括 D&O 嗎？或者你只是想要那個非 - 前 D&O。具體是哪幾行？專業線是一個非常廣闊的市場。

Yes. Okay. So my focus is more on D&O.

是的。好的。所以我的重點更多地放在 D&O 上。

D&O. Okay. So D&O, we expect similar trends that we see -- so in the last fourth quarter, it may change a little bit as a result of the overall thing that's happening in the marketplace. But the trend in the large commercial, for instance, have been neutral to negative, actually, for the last 3, 4 years. So I would say that even though we may hear -- you hear, I know rate decreases might be a helpful large commercial, there's rationality behind it. So we expect rationale (inaudible) some existence. Not -- There's a lot of data that points to -- that validates what kind of price points we're seeing on the D&O side.

做。好的。所以 D&O，我們預計我們會看到類似的趨勢——所以在最後一個第四季度，由於市場上發生的整體情況，它可能會有所變化。但是，例如，在過去的 3、4 年裡，大型商業的趨勢實際上是中性到負面的。所以我想說，即使我們可能會聽到——你聽說過，我知道降息可能是一個有用的大型商業廣告，但它背後有合理性。所以我們期望存在一些理由（聽不清）。不是——有很多數據指向——驗證了我們在 D&O 方面看到的什麼樣的價格點。

On the smaller D&O side, which we do a fair amount of -- to remind you, we do fair amount of D&O, we still see a very, very stable, very good marketplace. But again, the smaller D&Os are not the big ticket items that you would expect, but a lot of them are going to be not-for-profit small policy. So minimum premium is really -- a lot of times what happens and that 5% increase might be $50, right? So the kind of thing that we do. The (inaudible) we have grown dramatically over the last 4 or 5 years, it's becoming a big section of what we do.

在較小的 D&O 方面，我們做了很多——提醒你，我們做了相當多的 D&O，我們仍然看到一個非常、非常穩定、非常好的市場。但同樣，較小的 D&O 並不是您所期望的高價項目，但其中很多將是非營利性的小政策。所以最低保費真的是 - 很多時候會發生什麼，5% 的增加可能是 50 美元，對吧？所以我們所做的事情。在過去的 4 或 5 年裡，我們的（聽不清）發展迅速，它正在成為我們所做工作的重要組成部分。

That market is healthy from a change perspective, right? To go back what I said about the large commercial, the SCAs are down 25%, 30% over the last 4 years. So it's a pretty good market to be there. The IPO market has stabilized. It was pretty hot for a while. Pricing got crazy. We took advantage of a lot of opportunity. Not crazy, but it was a very acute needing capacity. We expect this to sort of renormalize again. So I think I would say, D&O is normalizing for the large commercial, sort of a Stage 4. I meant Phase 3 were recognizing some of the overreaction, but the smaller D&O is probably early Stage 3, which is still very profitable and a little bit of decrease here and there or a slight increase.

從變化的角度來看，這個市場是健康的，對吧？回顧我所說的大型商業廣告，SCA 在過去 4 年中下降了 25%、30%。所以這是一個非常好的市場。 IPO市場趨於穩定。有一段時間很熱。定價變得瘋狂。我們利用了很多機會。不瘋狂，但這是一種非常急需的能力。我們預計這會再次正常化。所以我想我會說，D&O 正在為大型商業正常化，有點像第 4 階段。我的意思是第 3 階段認識到一些過度反應，但較小的 D&O 可能是第 3 階段的早期，它仍然非常有利可圖，而且有點在這里和那裡有點減少或略有增加。

I'm not showing any further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Marc Grandisson for closing remarks.

我不會在隊列中顯示任何其他問題。我現在想把會議轉回給 Marc Grandisson 先生作閉幕詞。

Well, spend a good day with your loved ones, and we will see you in the next quarter. Thanks for listening, guys.

好吧，和你愛的人度過美好的一天，我們下個季度再見。謝謝你們的聆聽，伙計們。

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。