ACCO Brands Corp (ACCO) 2009 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Third Quarter 2009 ACCO Brands Earnings Conference Call. My name is Lacey and I'll be your coordinator for today. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. We will facilitate a question and answer session towards the end of this conference. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes.

I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today's call, Ms. Jennifer Rice, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

Good morning and welcome to our Third Quarter 2009 Conference Call. On the call today are Bob Keller, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of ACCO Brands Corporation, and Neal Fenwick, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Slides that accompany of this call have been posted to the Investor Relations section of accobrands.com. These slides provide detailed information to supplement this call. Our discussion this morning will refer to results on an adjusted basis for continuing operations, excluding all restructuring and other charges. Our adjusted net income does include a $4.2 million net loss on the early extinguishment of debt related to our September refinancing which amounted to $0.07 per share. Excluding this effect, our adjusted net earnings would've been $0.23 per share. A reconciliation of these results to GAAP can be found in this morning's press release.

During the call we may make forward-looking statements and based on certain risk factors our actual results could differ materially. Please refer to our press release and SEC filings for an explanation of those factors. Following our prepared remarks, we will hold a Q&A session.

Now, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Keller.

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning, everyone. I'll briefly take you through the high level numbers, give you our perspective on our performance and progress, and ask Neal to take you through our refinancing and its implications.

Earlier this morning we issued third quarter earnings. Our net sales were down 18% from the prior year third quarter, excluding foreign exchange. Given our focus on expense management, operating profits declined at a lesser rate than sales, 13%. It's important to note that our continued aggressive management of costs more than offset the deleveraging effects of our sales decline and that we actually delivered operating margin expansion in the quarter of 100 basis points, up to 9.4% from 8.4% a year ago.

We also reported EBITDA of $42.5 million and adjusted net income was $8.7 million or $0.155 per share. Excluding the effect of refinancing, which was a loss of $0.075 per share in the current year and a gain of $0.01 in the prior year associated with the purchase of sub notes, our comparable EPS increased $0.01 to $0.23 per share compared to $0.22 per share in the prior year. We generated $29 million of net cash flow in the quarter and raised our guidance for cash flow available for debt reduction to $40 million to $50 million up from $30 million to $40 million.

On the customer front, our improved execution continues to make a difference in our customer relationships. During the quarter, we were recognized by OfficeMaxas their most improved supply chain performer. In addition, we were named the preferred supplier by United Stationersfor the stapling binding systems and computer accessories categories and as a result, ACCO Brands products in those categories will be featured in the beneficial lead position of all United Stationersmarketing materials and catalogues with preferred pricing and advertising opportunities throughout the coming year.

We were also named as one of Staples' strategic suppliers, another acknowledgement of the progress we've made in that very important relationship. And last, but certainly not least, we recently were awarded our first business at Target, an important step in our goal to compete more effectively in the mass market channel.

In summary, we believe that we continue to make progress during the quarter in repositioning our business for success. Our customer relationships are healthier. Our supply chain is executing better. Our new product development organization has been energized. And with the refinancing, we've strengthened our financial foundation. As a global Company, we're still dealing with a recession that has had and is still having global impact.

From our vantage point, our US, Canadian, Latin American, and Asia-Pacific businesses have rebounded slightly from their lows earlier in the year. Our Australian businesses are reflecting the healthy improvement in the Australian economy but our European business remains challenged, consistent with the overall European economy. We continue to believe that our cost structure is appropriate for the current global economic environment and remains highly leveragable if conditions were to improve.

Now I'll turn the call over to Neal for a more in-depth look into the quarter's results. Neal?

Thank you, Bob. Before I review the details of the quarter, I want to start by recapping the refinancing that we completed in September. Specifically, we sold $460 million of senior secured bonds, negotiated a new $175 million asset based revolving facility, and repurchased $29 million of our subordinated debt in the open market.

At the same time, we repaid all of our senior debt under the previous capital structure. The refinancing unburdens us from both mandatory debt amortization and the quarterly maintenance covenants in our prior capital structure that constrained our operational flexibility. Refinancing should eliminate any uncertainty about our financial well being among customers, suppliers, and investors.

The bond offering itself was significantly oversubscribed which enabled us to achieve a lower overall rate and increase the size of the offering, using the incremental proceeds to repurchase some of our subordinated notes at market prices, thus resulting in a $5 million discount on the redemption. Finally, the refinancing provides comfort in the event of further economic deterioration, adequate liquidity to finance growth coming out of the recession, and a long-time horizon before any maturities.

The early extinguishment of our old debt triggered a write-off of previous debt finance fees. This was partly offset by the gain on repurchasing sub notes at a discount and all-in resulted in the net loss in the quarter of $4.2 million or $0.07 per share which is included in our adjusted results.

Now turning to the results of the quarter, our performance is recapped on slide four. Sales declined 21.5% with volume down 20%. Foreign exchange impacted sales by 3.4%.

Slide five shows that the largest driver behind our revenue decline continued to be the economic decline which has impacted business in all our markets, reducing sales volume by $77 million or 19%. Adjusted gross margins improved 10 basis points to 31.2%, a notable difference from the first half decline in gross margin of 190 basis points. The third quarter marked the beginning of easing commodity costs and exchange rate comparisons year over year. We believe this trend should continue on a comparative basis for the next couple of quarters; however, we still continue to experience an adverse profit mix from lower sales of higher margin durable products.

SG&A was substantially lower in the quarter, down $22.5 million or 25% and SG&A margin improved 90 basis points to 21.3%. The improvement was entirely the result of cost reduction initiatives and lower selling expenses which more than offset the adverse leverage from reduced volume. The quarter also reflects a return to normalized salaries and a smaller draw for employee furlough repayments for our US business. All-in, adjusted operating income declined 13%, including foreign exchange translation which had a $1.4 million adverse impact. Our operating margin increased 100 basis points to 9.4%.

EBITDA declined 9% to $42.5 million. This includes $1.9 million of adverse foreign exchange translation. We believe the third quarter should be the low water mark for our trailing 12 month EBITDA which was $139.1 million. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations was $0.15 per share. This includes the $0.07 net loss rated to the early extinguishment of debt associated with our refinancing in the current quarter. And a $0.01 gain associated with repurchasing of bonds in the prior quarter. Excluding this, our adjusted EPS would've been $0.23, a $0.01 over the comparable prior year quarter.

Turning to an overview of our segments on slide six, in the Americas sales declined 21% or 19% excluding currency. We continue to see the impact of continued weakness in business spending across all markets; however, demand appears to have stabilized. We had a solid back to school season given the recessionary environment and POS data continues to show that our sell in to customers matches their sell out. Operating margins for the Americas segment increased 150 basis points to 9.3% as a result of less adverse commodity costs and cost reduction activities which both offset the impact of lower sales volume and adverse product mix.

In the international segment, sales declined 21%, excluding currency sales declined 15%. Europe was the main driver of the international sales decline while Australia delivered it first quarter of sales growth versus prior year. International segment margin declined 100 basis points to 7.5%, principally due to the lower sales volume and lower profit in Europe. Recall that during the second quarter we implemented additional cost reduction activity in our international businesses to help offset the continued erosion in volume where economic trends have lagged the US. These included closing our Turin, Italy distribution center and we should start to see greater benefits materialize in Q4.

In computer products, sales declined 24%, excluding currency sales declined 21%. This business continued to be impacted by overall lower demand and the impact of loss sales from the bankruptcy of Circuit City which accounted for 7% of the segment decline. Computer products operating margin improved 530 basis points to 24.9% from 19.6% principally due to substantial reductions in SG&A which have offset the impact from lower sales volume. The current quarter segment income includes a $1 million gain from the liquidation of Circuit City inventory returns at favorable recovery rates.

Slide seven recaps our nine month results. To summarize, from a gross margin perspective, the first six months of 2009 were very challenging with a number of headwinds impacting us, in addition to the lower overall demand. In the third quarter, gross margin expanded 10 basis points as we began to lap the year ago peak in commodity costs which resulted in the 70 basis point tailwind in the quarter.

In SG&A, reduced selling expenses and cost savings continued to offset the deleveraging caused by the lower volume. While the adverse impact from foreign exchange was less, it was still adverse in the quarter and a year to date basis has reduced sales by $82 million and EBITDA by $12 million. Foreign exchanges will become a benefit in Q4, assuming today's exchange rates continue.

Slide eight recaps our third quarter cash flow and balances. Cash flow was strong in the quarter, $29 million. We now anticipate cash flow for the year of $40 million to $50 million, an increase of $10 million from the previous forecast, based on the change in the cycle of our interest payments associated with the refinancing. Debt was slightly higher than in Q2, driven by the refinancing, which added $60 million to our debt, partially offset by our operating cash flow in the quarter. We expect debt to come down in Q4 as we reduce our ABL draw with cash generated in the quarter.

Slide nine recaps our outlook for 2009 and our early perspective on 2010. We did revise our sales outlook for the second half of 2009 for decline in the low teens due to the change in foreign exchange rates. Since the change is foreign exchange driven, there will only be minimal flow through to the bottom line because the impact on costs will be similar.

In terms of 2010, we expect sales to be flat to slightly up despite lower demand driven by share gains and favorable foreign exchange translation but importantly, we expect to demonstrate operating profit growth, even if the top line is flat due to completed cost reduction initiatives and favorable commodity costs and foreign exchange rate movements which more than offset the normalization of US salaries.

And finally, slide ten includes a host of modeling assumptions. I draw your attention to the effective tax line. Our tax line has become hard to predict because the accumulated tax losses and tax valuation allowance in the US and certain foreign countries. Our cash and book taxes are entirely based on our profitable foreign countries while tax losses in the US and certain foreign countries reduced net income without any tax offset, making our tax rate highly volatile. Therefore it's difficult to quote an effective tax rate and I recommend you use between $20 million and $25 million as the book tax value.

At this point, Bob and I will be happy to take your questions. Operator?

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Bill Chappell with SunTrust Robinson. Please, proceed.

Good morning.

Good morning.

I guess first looking to fourth quarter in 2010, certainly nice to see that sales are flattening out or maybe you see some positive news. But I would assume you have at least a 1% to 2% tailwind from currency and I think last quarter you expected it to be flat to up anyways. Is there any change in demand you're seeing. Have you won any new contracts since we last talked after the second quarter and are there any new contracts that you still could win between now and year end?

First of all, to split the answer between Bob and I, I'll answer the currency question. In the third quarter, the currency was still adverse. It becomes favorable in October.

Sure.

And so at that time, it will become a tailwind which will help us certainly through the first half of next year, it's also going to be beneficial. So, you're absolutely right. Currency becomes a help but actually in the third quarter, it was still a drag on the business. In terms of our ability to pick up additional contracts, I'll let Bob answer that question.

Good morning, Bill. I think we look at third quarter and felt it was pretty solid. Now the question is whether or not that will translate to the holiday season. But the back to school season came in at least as well as we expected. As I mentioned in my remarks, we recently were awarded a contract at Target and if we execute well on that, I think we have reasonably significant expansion opportunities there. So, we feel good about that.

So, I should read anything into next year's somewhat conservative guidance other than it's just too early to tell.

I think we'd like to get into the mode of under-promising and over-delivering. I don't know that historically we've been particularly good at that. So, we're just calling it as we see it.

I'm all for that. Second, just looking at the back to school season, any reason that you can tell why it was a little bit better than expected? I think the general theme three, four months ago was that it was going to be a horrendous back to school season and it seems like for both you and Rubbermaid it was a little bit better than expected. Any idea why that was?

I think the office superstores were more aggressive this year than maybe they were a year ago. I think they walked away a year ago and thought that they had lost some share to the mass channel and were more aggressive about trying to get people into the stores. I think both Staples and Depot have commented that they were pretty pleased with the results of their efforts and that clearly helped us.

And just final, on headcount reduction, especially in Europe, are we all done there? Are there any further changes to happen?

We made the last physical closure in August with the closure at the end of August of the distribution center in Turin. But there is still a tail of people coming out in Europe and part of that is to do with as and when systems get bedded down, you can take the final people out. So, people will be coming out throughout the fourth quarter in Europe.

Guys, I have one more. On the gross margin, this was the first time there was gross margin improvement year over year in six quarters. But it sounds like there's still some lower cost economies. Is that still the case in terms of commodity costs?

Yes. We should see exactly the same trend in the fourth quarter. If you recall, I tried to explain this last year that our P&L reflects a time lag of about six or seven months to the reality of what happened with commodity costs. So, the peak load in our P&L on commodity costs was in Q4 and in Q1 again took another belting. So, you'll see gross margin expansion from commodity costs come through in our reported P&L in both Q4 and Q1.

Great. Nice to see the improvement.

Thank you.

And our next question will come from the line of Arnold Ursanerwith CJS Securities. Please proceed, sir.

Hi. Good morning. My first question, in your H2 '09 and 2010 outlook, you mentioned that management incentives, you had suspended plans for the first eight months of 2009 and that they would resume. My question is have they already been put back in place? Is that why you highlighted that they were in place for just the first eight months?

We have approval from our board that if we exceed the original operating income targets of the business that were set in October of last year, any excess of that target number would be used to fund management incentives.

It's also worth noting that in the third quarter we restored salaries. We went back to full salaries in the US. In addition to that, we actually accrued about $1.3 million associated with our intention to repay our employees for the expense of the fellow that they helped in terms of getting through our bank covenant position and therefore we do have a year over year increase in expense and the real issue for us is getting to the point where -- for us, third quarter was a top comp in that we release a lot incentive accruals last year and therefore, and allowing performance is perhaps even stronger than it appears.

To my point. So, you actually have already absorbed the expense of restoring some of these benefits that occurred in Q3.

Correct.

Okay. My second question relates to the outlook for cost cutting. You mentioned $80 million of anticipated benefit, $66 million ongoing, but you've taken $43 million of that in completed activities. The remaining $23 million, when should we assume that will occur?

The $43 million comment was a comment as at the last quarter end. For this quarter end, we've actually completed all of the activities that need to be done.

So, we'll get the full year benefit of that in 2010 and that has already occurred? These are not hoped for, potential benefits but things you have already?

You're correct, Arnie. We will -- the second half of the year we'll benefit with additional cost reductions which went in the first half and also the rest flows into next year. But the one thing that does not repeat in the first half of next year is the benefit of the pay cuts which helped the beginning of this year by approximately $15 million.

Neal, you mentioned in the prepared press release that in computer products your gross margin improvement was 500 basis points. But you mentioned it was primarily the result of a substantial reduction in advertising selling G&A. I guess my question is I want to make sure you didn't starve the business to get the margin up that quarter. Can you give us a better feel for perhaps the discretionary advertising spending you pulled back and if it's likely to return in the seasonally more important Q4?

Two separate things. We also benefited from about 230 basis points which was the $1.1 million of gain we picked up by reworking Circuit City returns of product. That actually had a strong benefit in the quarter. The reduction in advertising is really a year over year thing. We spent a lot of advertising in the third quarter last year. So, that really shows up as more of a distortion. But we have consciously limited our SG&A support this year mainly because we think the market has not been strong and because our business has really lost position in retail which takes a lot more support. For example, Circuit City is not there. And our strong suit in that business has always been in the OEM commercial channel. That doesn't require the same support.

Final question for you, Neal, if I can. You've been constrained due to various covenant issues about even small tuck in acquisitions. With this additional flexibility, I know you've got a fairly full plate. But where do you view acquisitions now? What can you do under your lines? How should we think about even small tuck in acquisitions as part of your growth strategy?

Arnie, this is Bob. As part of our strategy, it's clearly part of our strategy, but in the near-term, we think we've got an awful lot of work left to do and we're focused on getting the business back to where we think its appropriate operating levels should be.

From a bank covenant point of view, there are some short-term restrictions which apply to the business until we get our senior leverage down below 2.5 times. We do have the ability to make certain acquisitions even before then, but realistically the business will both be ready for our acquisitions and also should be in a position where it's fortunes have carried on improving to the point where there are no restrictions on our ability to make acquisitions from a banking point of view at the time that the business, in my opinion, would be ready to think about it. That would obviously be into next year.

Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Reza Vahabzadeh with Barclays Capital. Please proceed.

Good morning.

Good morning.

Can you give us any kind of a color on how the category is doing? How POS performance, your tough customers in the key back to school season? Was it roughly in line with your volume decline? Any color on that would be appreciated.

Sure. As we pointed out on the last conference call and the trend has continued, we see a big difference between performance at retail commercial and our direct sell channel. And just a recap, performance at retail was circa minus ten. Performance in our commercial was circa minus 20. And in our direct sell business, minus low 30s. That trend has not changed in the third quarter. And so, predominantly what we've seen is our customers in a retail sense focusing on more supplies and less technology which, I think, has been part of why we and to the earlier comment, we all saw recently good back to school performance. They've kind of gone back to their roots in that respect. So, from an end user consumer, the only market we've seen change is Australia where our Australian business actually swung back into growth in the third quarter, sadly offset by continued decline in Europe.

Got it, so the category remains weak?

I'll add to that. We did see a little bit of a lift in durables part of our business in September. Neal has made the point externally on multiple occasions that that part of the business, its success is predicated on business optimism. One month clearly is not a trend but it was nice to see a little bit of a lift in that business. We'll see going forward.

Got it. And then, as far as the FX is concerned, how much of an FX benefit are you incorporating in your initial preliminary 2010 sales guidance?

Foreign exchange for Q4 will actually offset the kind of foreign exchange loss in the third quarter more than. It will be a positive in Q4 for us. Going into next year, it should add at least three or four points to our top line.

I see. Got it. And then on commodity costs, obviously cost is diminishing, it fell starting third quarter last year. For how much longer can you benefit just from the lower input cost offset by any kind of a negative price action you've taken?

Sure. So, if you -- I'm sure you would understand this point well but for the greater audience, if you look at cost over a longer-term frame, what you'd see is that costs spiraled up at the very end of '07, really ramping up in the first half of '08 dramatically and has subsequently fallen and at the beginning of this year started to rise a little bit. But the level they've risen to and if they stabilize at this level, it's actually no different to where they were in 2007. And so, if you forget the whole gyration that occurred through '08 and '09, what you end up with is that our sales prices and our costs are in line at this moment, given that we didn't raise prices last year and so we're back where we were. But remember, our P&L lags that effect and that's why year over year we pick up the benefit in our P&L rather than in terms of what we're actually buying products at.

Thanks for that. And then on the cash flow guidance, the increase that you mentioned, is the increase largely due to the interest payment timing or is there something else in there as well?

It's exactly due to that. The secured bond we have has basically a six month coupon which is paid. So, under our old bank debt, we would've paid monthly interest out throughout the fourth quarter and now it just all gets paid out at the end of March.

Got it. Thank you very much.

Our next question will come from the line of DerekLeckowwith Barrington Research. Please proceed.

Thanks. Good morning, Bob. Good morning, Neal.

Good morning.

Question on the guidance on 2010. I don't see anything in here for new products even though on slide three you guys talk about that as being a major initiative. Wondering if you could tell me, are you expecting anything from that? Or is going to be simply to offset some losses in some other categories? How should I be thinking about the introduction of new products next year?

It's already built in, Derek. We've gone through the line reviews with our customers and we've presented the future products to them as part of the line reviews. So, when we talk about $60 million net market share gain, it includes the effect of new products introduced over the course of the next 12 to 14 months.

Okay. Got it. And then, of course, corresponding to that, what should I be thinking about in terms of pricing. Obviously that has a positive impact. You've got 60 of new in there? Is that right? What sort of pricing impact are you assuming at this time?

We're assuming zero impact on pricing at this point in time. We're not through those negotiations with our customers yet. But as Neal's mentioned, we didn't raise prices in several of our major markets last year, based on commodity costs. And so, we're in a pretty competitive position right now.

Would the new products though have a natural higher price point as they replace older products?

Not necessarily. Actually what we've talked about previously is we want to bring price performance improvement to the marketplace. So, it's a balance.

Okay. Then I've got a question just specifically on the computer products selling channel. What is happening there as it relates to the bankruptcy? You mentioned that being a 7% impact here in the third quarter. When do you see that stabilizing? Where does that share go and what impact does that have on your business?

From when the calendar is out, it's Q4 is the last calendar - last quarter where you'll see that effect. There's a tiny amount in Q1 but fundamentally Q4 is the last big quarter for it. The share obviously went to other retail customers. We don't have high penetration at retail and therefore we did not pick up that share. Other people picked up that share. From a margin point of view, retail has always been the weakest margin in that area. It's much more an OEM added value reseller market -- commercial market for us and that market for us predominately sells very high margin security products which don't sell very much through the retail channel. Therefore, from a margin point of view, the loss of retail actually is a positive mix for us.

Does the next wave of capital equipment spending for computer products associated with the Windows 7 introduction, does that tend to give you a more positive outlook?

Any expenditure by corporations on any form of durable, be it office product durables or computer product durables helps our business and so fundamentally we require -- our main consumer is the business consumer. Anything that drives consumer purchasing is good news for us.

Great. Thank you very much.

Our final question will come from the line of KarruMartinsonwith Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Good morning.

Good morning.

In terms of the mass channel, I think a couple of quarters ago you highlighted a number of product wins. Obviously we've got the intro at Target. When should we start to see those sell ins for the other products into the mass channel?

I think you'll start to see a little bit of an impact in the fourth quarter from the success that we've had at Wal-Mart and the win at Target you'll start to see the impact of that in the first quarter of next year.

Okay. And then in terms of kind of the pipeline, what you're looking at for 2010 and beyond for that channel?

I think we're at a stage in that channel where we need to execute now. I think they've taken a look at our products and our brand strength and decided from those two vantage points that we would be a good partner to have. They have pretty rigorous demands on the supply chain side. We have to execute against them. If we execute well, I think we have opportunities for expansion in that channel.

Okay. And then just when we look at the revenue in the third quarter the loss placement in contracts, is that kind of lower volume business or lower margin business that you are culling yourself? Or where is that business going? I mean, it was only $6 million in the quarter though.

Most of the business in our industry moves on annual contracts. The share losses that we have this year was decided last year, much as the share gains that we've spoken about, the $60 million of share gain really impacts 2010 and there's a little bit of pipeline fill in December but from an out sell point of view. So, this was all share we lost to competitors. In this particular case, we lost the ring binder category at Wal-Mart is one of the big drivers of this coupled with the loss of Circuit City which also hit.

Okay. And then just lastly, on a housekeeping basis, what is the balance on your senior sub notes post the buy back?

We bought back $29 something million. It was $300 million less $29 million. So, it would be about $271 million.

Thank you very much, guys.

Thank you. This concludes our question and answer portion of today's call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bob Keller, Chairman and CEO, for closing remarks.

Thank you again for joining us this morning. We hope to see many of you at investor conferences over the next couple of months. I look forward to updating you on our progress at the end of the quarter. Take care.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This concludes your presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day, everyone.