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Operator
Operator
Good morning, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the AbbVie fourth-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Today's call is also being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.
早上好,感謝您的耐心等待。歡迎參加艾伯維2025年第四季財報電話會議。(操作員指示)今天的通話也將被錄音。如果您有任何異議,可以立即斷開連接。
I would now like to introduce Ms. Liz Shea, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations.
現在我謹向大家介紹投資者關係資深副總裁 Liz Shea 女士。
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Good morning, and thanks for joining us. Also, on the call with me today are Rob Michael, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff Stewart, Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer; Roopal Thakkar, Executive Vice President, Research and Development, Chief Scientific Officer; and Scott Reents, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer.
早安,感謝各位的參與。今天和我一起參加電話會議的還有:董事長兼執行長羅伯·邁克爾;執行副總裁兼首席商務官傑夫·斯圖爾特;執行副總裁兼研發首席科學官魯帕爾·塔卡爾;以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官斯科特·倫茨。
Before we get started, I'll note that some statements we make today may be considered forward-looking statements based on our current expectations. AbbVie cautions that these forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in our forward-looking statements. Additional information about these risks and uncertainties is included in our SEC filings. AbbVie undertakes no obligation to update these forward-looking statements except as required by law.
在開始之前,我想指出,我們今天所作的一些陳述可能被認為是基於我們目前預期的前瞻性陳述。艾伯維提醒,這些前瞻性聲明存在風險和不確定性,可能導致實際結果與前瞻性聲明中指出的結果有重大差異。有關這些風險和不確定性的更多信息,請參閱我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。除法律要求外,艾伯維不承擔更新這些前瞻性聲明的義務。
On today's conference call, non-GAAP financial measures will be used to help investors understand AbbVie's business performance. These non-GAAP financial measures are reconciled with comparable GAAP financial measures in our earnings release and regulatory filings from today, which can be found on our website.
在今天的電話會議上,我們將使用非GAAP財務指標來幫助投資人了解艾伯維的業務表現。這些非GAAP財務指標已在今天發布的盈利報告和監管文件中與相應的GAAP財務指標進行了核對,這些文件可以在我們的網站上找到。
Following our prepared remarks, we will take your questions.
在我們發言完畢後,我們將回答各位的問題。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Rob.
那麼,接下來我將把電話交給羅布。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Liz. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Our fourth quarter performance closes out another excellent year for AbbVie, and I am very pleased with the significant progress we made in 2025. We delivered record net sales and exceeded our financial commitments, advanced our pipeline across all stages of development, and acquired new sources of growth through strategic transactions. We are entering 2026 with substantial momentum and remain well positioned to deliver another year of strong growth.
謝謝你,莉茲。各位早安,感謝各位的參與。第四季的業績為艾伯維又一個輝煌的年份畫上了圓滿的句號,我對我們在 2025 年取得的顯著進展感到非常滿意。我們實現了創紀錄的淨銷售額,超額完成了財務承諾,推進了各個開發階段的產品線,並透過策略交易獲得了新的成長來源。我們帶著強勁的發展勢頭進入2026年,並已做好充分準備,迎接另一個強勁增長的年份。
Turning to our results, we delivered full year adjusted earnings per share of $10 dollars, which is $0.54 cents above our initial guidance midpoint, excluding the impact of IPR&D expense. Total net revenues were $61.2 billion dollars, beating our initial guidance by more than $2 billion. Our sales growth of 8.6% led to a new all-time high for AbbVie exceeding our previous peak revenue by more than $3 billion dollars despite nearly $16 billion of US Humira erosion since the LOE.
再來看我們的業績,我們全年調整後每股收益為 10 美元,比我們最初的指導中點高出 0.54 美元,不包括 IPR&D 費用的影響。總淨收入為 612 億美元,比我們最初的預期高出 20 多億美元。儘管自 LOE 以來美國 Humira 的銷售額減少了近 160 億美元,但我們 8.6% 的銷售額增長使艾伯維創下了歷史新高,比我們之前的峰值收入高出 30 億美元以上。
Our excellent performance puts us in a strong position to advance our innovative medicines. In 2025, we increased adjusted R&D expense by nearly $1 billion fully funding the 90 clinical programs currently in development. We also obtained several new product and indication approvals including Rinvoq for GCA, Emrelis for non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer, and Epkinly for second-line follicular lymphoma.
我們優異的表現使我們處於有利地位,能夠推進我們的創新藥物研發。2025 年,我們增加了近 10 億美元的調整後研發支出,為目前正在開發的 90 個臨床項目提供了充足的資金。我們還獲得了幾項新產品和適應症的批准,包括用於治療鉅細胞動脈炎的 Rinvoq、用於治療非鱗狀非小細胞肺癌的 Emrelis 以及用於二線治療濾泡性淋巴瘤的 Epkinly。
And we bolstered our pipeline by investing more than $5 billion dollars in new business development, including several promising mechanisms and technologies. These include an in-vivo CAR-T platform in immunology from Capstan Therapeutics; Bretisilocin, a next-generation psychodelic with promising data in depression; ISB 2001, a novel tri-specific antibody for multiple myeloma; â295, a long-acting amylin analog for obesity; and a next-generation siRNA platform from ADARx that has applicability in Immunology, Neuroscience, and Oncology.
我們透過投資超過 50 億美元用於新業務開發,加強了我們的產品線,其中包括幾種有前景的機制和技術。其中包括 Capstan Therapeutics 公司的體內 CAR-T 免疫學平台;Bretisilocin,一種在抑鬱症治療方面具有良好前景的新一代迷幻藥;ISB 2001,一種用於治療多發性骨髓瘤的新型三特異性抗體;âf295,一種用於治療肥胖症的長效胰淀素類似物;
We also recently announced a transaction with RemeGen, adding a novel PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody to combine with our ADCs across multiple solid tumors, further strengthening AbbVie's oncology portfolio.
我們最近也宣布與 RemeGen 達成交易,新增一種新型 PD-1/VEGF 雙特異性抗體,可與我們的 ADC 聯合用於多種實體瘤,進一步加強艾伯維的腫瘤產品組合。
Turning to 2026, we expect AbbVie to once again deliver top-tier performance. We anticipate total sales growth of 9.5%, reflecting another year of robust sales results despite headwinds from continued Humira erosion and Imbruvica IRA pricing. The main drivers of this growth include Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with combined sales of more than $31 billion dollars, already surpassing our 2027 long-term guidance by half a billion.
展望 2026 年,我們預計艾伯維將再次取得一流業績。我們預計總銷售額將成長 9.5%,這反映出儘管受到 Humira 持續下滑和 Imbruvica IRA 定價等不利因素的影響,但仍將迎來又一個強勁的銷售業績年。推動這一成長的主要因素包括 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq,兩家公司的合併銷售額超過 310 億美元,已經比我們 2027 年的長期指導目標高出 5 億美元。
We are also forecasting a substantial sales ramp for Vyalev, achieving blockbuster status this year as a transformational treatment for Parkinson's. And we expect continued double-digit revenue growth from our leading migraine products, which are also trending significantly above our long-term expectations. Given the strong outlook of our diverse portfolio, we are well-positioned to deliver high single-digit revenue growth through 2029.
我們也預測 Vyalev 的銷售額將大幅成長,今年有望成為治療帕金森氏症的革命性藥物,成為重磅炸彈級產品。我們預計,我們領先的偏頭痛產品將繼續保持兩位數的收入成長,其成長趨勢也顯著高於我們的長期預期。鑑於我們多元化產品組合的強勁前景,我們完全有能力在 2029 年之前實現高個位數的收入成長。
Turning now to R&D, we anticipate a number of key catalysts across our core therapeutic areas over the next 24 months. In Immunology, this includes pivotal data for three additional Rinvoq indications, as well as initial data for our Crohn's combination platform with Skyrizi. In Neuroscience, we anticipate key readouts for next-generation assets 932, Bretisilocin, and Emraclidine. And in Oncology, we expect registrational data for Etentamig, as well as mid-to-late-stage readouts for Temab-A in several solid tumors. These are all very exciting opportunities that have the potential to drive sustained long-term growth.
現在轉向研發,我們預計在未來 24 個月內,我們的核心治療領域將出現一些關鍵的催化劑。在免疫學領域,這包括 Rinvoq 的三個額外適應症的關鍵數據,以及我們克隆氏症聯合治療平台與 Skyrizi 的初步數據。在神經科學領域,我們期待下一代資產 932、Bretisilocin 和 Emraclidine 的關鍵讀數。在腫瘤學領域,我們期待獲得 Etentamig 的註冊數據,以及 Temab-A 在幾種實體瘤中的中後期試驗結果。這些都是非常令人振奮的機遇,有可能推動持續的長期成長。
Lastly, we recently announced a voluntary agreement with the US government that reinforces our commitment to patient access and affordability while also protecting our ability to invest in innovation. Key elements of this three-year agreement include offering low prices in Medicaid, expanding direct-to-patient cash pay options for select products, and committing $100 billion in US R&D and capital investments over the next decade.
最後,我們最近宣布與美國政府達成自願協議,該協議強化了我們對患者獲得醫療服務和負擔得起醫療服務的承諾,同時也保護了我們投資創新的能力。這項為期三年的協議的關鍵要素包括:在醫療補助計劃中提供低價產品,擴大特定產品的直接患者現金支付選項,並在未來十年內承諾在美國研發和資本投資 1000 億美元。
In summary, we are delivering outstanding execution, and the outlook of our business remains very strong.
總而言之,我們的執行力非常出色,業務前景仍然非常強勁。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Jeff for additional comments on our commercial highlights. Jeff.
接下來,我將把電話交給傑夫,請他對我們的商業亮點進行補充評論。傑夫。
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Thank you, Rob. I'll start with the quarterly results for immunology, which delivered total revenues of approximately $8.6 billion dollars. Skyrizi total sales were $5 billion dollars, reflecting operational growth of 31.9%. Rinvoq total sales were nearly $2.4 billion dollars, reflecting operational growth of 28.6%.
謝謝你,羅布。我先來看免疫學部門的季度業績,該部門的總收入約為 86 億美元。Skyrizi 總銷售額為 50 億美元,營運成長率為 31.9%。Rinvoq 總銷售額接近 24 億美元,營運成長率達 28.6%。
On a full-year basis, Skyrizi and Rinvoq delivered approximately $25.9 billion dollars in total combined revenue, an impressive increase of more than $8 billion dollars year-over-year, well exceeding our initial guidance expectations. These results reflect exceptional performance across their respective indications, and I'll highlight a few examples.
Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 全年合計實現約 259 億美元的總收入,比去年同期成長超過 80 億美元,遠超我們最初的預期。這些結果反映了它們在各自適應症中的卓越表現,我將重點介紹幾個例子。
Starting with psoriatic disease, a market that is growing high single digits with modest biologic penetration, where our portfolio has clear leadership. Skyrizi total prescription share in the U.S. biologic psoriasis market is now more than 45% and accelerating in the fourth quarter. Our in-play capture rates of new and switching patients have exceeded 55% across all lines of therapy, four times higher than the next closest competitor.
從銀屑病開始,這是一個以高個位數成長、生物製劑滲透率適中的市場,而我們的產品組合在該領域擁有明顯的領先地位。Skyrizi 在美國生物製劑乾癬市場的總處方份額目前已超過 45%,並且在第四季度加速成長。我們所有治療方案中新患者和轉換患者的治療成功率均超過 55%,是排名第二的競爭對手的四倍。
And when you consider Skyrizi's very high and durable skin clearance, including new and statistically significant data across the board for hard-to-treat areas like scalp, genitals, palmar, plantar, also widely demonstrated superior efficacy to both biologic and two oral agents, along with that simple quarterly dosing, we do not expect a material impact to our robust outlook in psoriasis from any existing or new therapies this year and beyond.
考慮到 Skyrizi 具有非常高且持久的皮膚清除率,包括針對頭皮、生殖器、手掌、足底等難治部位的全新且具有統計學意義的數據,以及廣泛證明其療效優於生物製劑和兩種口服藥物,再加上簡單的每季度給藥方案,我們預計今年及以後會對我們穩健的銀屑病前景產生實質性影響。
Moving to PsA derm, where nearly 30% of patients visiting dermatologists have both skin and joint involvement, Skyrizi is now capturing roughly one out of every four in-play patients on biologics across all lines of therapy in the US, further supporting Skyrizi's strong momentum. The PsA indication represents a critical differentiator in the psoriasis market, especially relative to emerging options where PsA efficacy is still unproven. Importantly, Skyrizi has achieved PsA front-line in-play patient share leadership for biologics in both the Derm and the Rheum segments.
在乾癬性關節炎皮膚病領域,近 30% 的皮膚科就診患者同時患有皮膚和關節疾病,Skyrizi 目前在美國所有治療線中,接受生物製劑治療的患者中約有四分之一正在接受治療,這進一步鞏固了 Skyrizi 的強勁發展勢頭。PsA 適應症是乾癬市場上的關鍵差異化因素,尤其是在 PsA 療效尚未證實的新興治療方案中更是如此。重要的是,Skyrizi 在皮膚科和風濕科領域都取得了銀屑病關節炎一線生物製劑的市場份額領先地位。
Turning more broadly to Rheum, Rinvoq continues to achieve a leading mid-teen in-play patient share for RA across all lines of therapy in the US. This is roughly double our total TRx share, highlighting a nice set-up for incremental share capture in RA over the next several years, driven by our active communication of the Select Switch trial, with data demonstrating Rinvoq's doubling of remission rates versus treatment with a second TNF inhibitor.
從更廣泛的風濕病領域來看,Rinvoq 在美國所有治療線中,針對類風濕關節炎的在研患者份額繼續保持領先地位,達到十幾個百分點。這大約是我們總 TRx 份額的兩倍,這凸顯了在未來幾年內,透過我們積極宣傳 Select Switch 試驗,在 RA 領域逐步擴大市場份額的良好局面。該試驗的數據表明,與使用第二種 TNF 抑制劑治療相比,Rinvoq 的緩解率提高了一倍。
And lastly, in IBD, where we continue to deliver strong performance and remain very well-positioned. The IBD market is very robust, with high-singledigit growth driven by increasing biologic penetration and rapidly expanding lines of therapy as patients cycle to newer, high-efficacy agents like Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
最後,在投資銀行業務方面,我們持續保持強勁的業績,並繼續處於非常有利的地位。IBD 市場非常強勁,在生物製劑滲透率不斷提高和治療方案迅速擴展的推動下,實現了高個位數的增長,因為患者開始使用 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 等更新、更有效的藥物。
We are very pleased with Skyrizi's strong growth in IBD. Global sales for this indication were approximately $6.4 billion dollars in 2025, more than double our prior year performance in IBD. We remain very confident in Skyrizi's profile in IBD, including its demonstrated strong impact on clinical remission, as well as extremely strong endoscopic data with best-in-class placebo-adjusted rates, particularly in the bio-naïve patients.
我們對 Skyrizi 在 IBD 領域的強勁成長感到非常滿意。2025 年,此適應症的全球銷售額約為 64 億美元,是去年 IBD 表現的兩倍多。我們對 Skyrizi 在 IBD 中的表現仍然非常有信心,包括其對臨床緩解的顯著影響,以及極其強大的內視鏡數據,其安慰劑調整後的緩解率在同類最佳,尤其是在生物製劑初治患者中。
And you can see this clinical profile playing out well when you consider our current market shares by line of therapy. Importantly, and despite in-class competition for most of 2025, Skyrizi's capture rates remain exceptionally impressive, especially in that frontline treatment of IBD, which is the strongest signal of overall physician preference, and Skyrizi remains the clear leader.
從我們目前按治療線劃分的市場份額可以看出,這種臨床特徵得到了很好的體現。重要的是,儘管在 2025 年的大部分時間裡都面臨著同類產品之間的競爭,但 Skyrizi 的市場份額仍然非常驚人,尤其是在 IBD 的一線治療領域,這是醫生總體偏好的最強信號,而 Skyrizi 仍然是明顯的領導者。
Skyrizi retains a very high IL-23 category patient share, with an in-play capture rate of approximately 75% in the frontline setting overall for IBD. This is driven by an even higher frontline capture rate for Skyrizi and Crohn's disease, which is roughly two-thirds of the total IBD market. And these capture rates have been strong and consistent even as the IL-23 category expands rapidly.
Skyrizi 在 IL-23 類別患者中保持著非常高的份額,在 IBD 的一線治療中,其治療成功率約為 75%。這主要是由於 Skyrizi 和克隆氏症的第一線患者佔有率更高,約佔 IBD 市場總量的三分之二。即使 IL-23 類別迅速擴張,這些捕獲率也一直保持強勁且穩定。
Skyrizi's dosing convenience is also favored, with less frequent maintenance treatment to the most effective dose for other IL-23s, which is very important as patients tend to be on therapy for many years. So Skyrizi continues to perform very well and will continue to do so in 2026 and beyond.
Skyrizi 的給藥便利性也備受青睞,與其他 IL-23 相比,維持治療的頻率更低,且劑量達到最有效水平,這非常重要,因為患者往往需要接受多年的治療。因此,Skyrizi 的表現一直非常出色,並且在 2026 年及以後也將繼續保持這種狀態。
Equally importantly, and unlike any other competitor, we have a second compelling treatment in IBD, Rinvoq, which is also capturing robust mid-teens in-play share across all lines of therapy in Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. Rinvoq has demonstrated some of the strongest response rates to date in IBD, including rapidity of action, which is important for patients who need rapid control and durable remission.
同樣重要的是,與其他任何競爭對手不同,我們在 IBD 領域還有第二種引人注目的治療方法 Rinvoq,它在克羅恩病和潰瘍性結腸炎的所有治療領域也佔據了相當可觀的市場份額(15% 左右)。Rinvoq 在 IBD 治療中展現了迄今為止最強的療效,包括起效迅速,這對於需要快速控制病情和持久緩解的患者來說非常重要。
And with Rinvoq's recently expanded label in IBD, patients will now have access to Rinvoq earlier in the treatment paradigm when anti-TNF treatment is clinically inadvisable. Skyrizi and Rinvoq are a great pair in IBD. Skyrizi is well-positioned in frontline, and we see more opportunity than ever before for Rinvoq in the second line plus setting.
隨著 Rinvoq 最近在 IBD 中的適應症擴大,當臨床上不建議使用抗 TNF 治療時,患者現在可以在治療方案的早期階段獲得 Rinvoq。Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 是 IBD 領域一對很棒的組合。Skyrizi 在前線佔據了有利地位,我們看到 Rinvoq 在二線及以上位置上的機會比以往任何時候都多。
So together, our two brands have already exceeded peak Humira sales by more than $4.5 billion and are on pace to deliver more than 20% growth in 2026, remarkable considering this year will be their eighth year on the market.
因此,我們這兩個品牌加起來的銷售額已經超過了 Humira 的峰值銷售額 45 億美元以上,並且預計在 2026 年實現超過 20% 的增長,考慮到今年是它們上市的第八年,這非常了不起。
Turning now to Humira, which delivered global sales of more than $1.2 billion dollars, down 26.1% on an operational basis, primarily due to biosimilar competition and in line with our expectations. We anticipate Humira access will decrease further throughout 2026 as more plans move to exclusive biosimilar contracts.
現在來看看阿達木單抗(Humira),其全球銷售額超過 12 億美元,按營運基礎計算下降了 26.1%,這主要是由於生物類似藥的競爭,符合我們的預期。我們預計,隨著更多保險計劃轉向獨家生物相似藥合同,2026 年 Humira 的使用率將進一步下降。
Moving to Neuroscience, where full-year revenues were more than $10.7 billion dollars, reflecting impressive absolute sales growth of nearly $1.8 billion dollars. In the quarter, total revenues were more than $2.9 billion dollars, up 17.3% on an operational basis.
再來看神經科學領域,該領域全年營收超過 107 億美元,絕對銷售額成長近 18 億美元,令人矚目。本季總營收超過 29 億美元,以營運基礎計算成長 17.3%。
This robust performance is driven by continued double-digit growth of Vraylar, with global sales of $1 billion dollars, Botox Therapeutic, with global revenues of $990 million dollars, Ubrelvy, with global sales of $339 million dollars, and Qulipta, with global revenues of $288 million dollars. Beyond these leading therapies for psychiatry and migraine, we are very excited for our emerging portfolio in Parkinson's disease, which we believe remains underappreciated.
這一強勁的業績得益於Vraylar(全球銷售額達10億美元)、Botox Therapeutic(全球收入達9.9億美元)、Ubrelvy(全球銷售額達3.39億美元)和Qulipta(全球收入達2.88億美元)的持續兩位數增長。除了這些領先的精神病學和偏頭痛療法之外,我們對我們在帕金森氏症領域的新興產品組合感到非常興奮,我們認為該領域仍未得到應有的重視。
Vyalev's launch continues to be outstanding. Total sales were $183 million dollars in the quarter, up approximately 33% on a sequential basis. The uptake is exceptionally strong across international markets, and we expect sales to ramp in the U.S., where Vyalev recently received full coverage.
維亞列夫的發射工作依然非常出色。本季總銷售額為 1.83 億美元,季增約 33%。該產品在國際市場上的反應異常強勁,我們預計在美國的銷售量將會大幅成長,Vyalev 最近在美國獲得了全面報導。
Feedback from prescribers and patients' communities remains very encouraging, highlighting meaningful improvements in on-time and off-time as a result of Vyalev's continuous 24-hour delivery and the control of symptoms morning, day, and night. Given these insights and the robust early-launch trends globally, we now expect Vyalev to achieve blockbuster revenue in 2026.
來自處方醫生和患者群體的回饋仍然非常令人鼓舞,強調了 Vyalev 24 小時持續給藥以及早、中、晚控制症狀在按時起效和停藥方面取得的顯著改善。鑑於這些見解以及全球強勁的早期上市趨勢,我們現在預計 Vyalev 將在 2026 年實現爆炸性的收入。
And when you add Tavapadon for potential use as a monotherapy for early Parkinson's disease, as well as an adjunct to optimize oral therapy for more advanced patients, we believe we have the potential multi-billion-dollar emerging PD franchise over the long term. And we remain on track for commercial approval of Tavapadon in the U.S. later this year.
如果將 Tavapadon 添加到早期帕金森氏症單一藥物治療的潛在用途,以及作為輔助藥物優化晚期患者的口服治療,我們相信,從長遠來看,我們擁有價值數十億美元的新興帕金森氏症特許經營權。我們仍有望在今年稍後獲得Tavapadon在美國的商業批准。
Moving now to oncology, where total revenues were nearly $1.7 billion dollars in the quarter, down 2.5% on an operational basis. Venclexta global sales were $710 million dollars, up 6.4% on an operational basis, reflecting continued strong demand in CLL, with combination use of Venclexta plus BTK inhibitors emerging as a preferred all-oral fixed-duration treatment.
現在來看腫瘤學,該季度總收入接近 17 億美元,按營運基礎計算下降了 2.5%。Venclexta 全球銷售額為 7.1 億美元,以營運基礎計算成長 6.4%,反映出 CLL 的持續強勁需求,Venclexta 與 BTK 抑制劑合併使用已成為首選的全口服固定療程治療方案。
In 2026, we anticipate another major commercial catalyst with the global approvals of Venclexta plus Calquence in combination, two leading brands in CLL offering patients the potential for time-off treatment addressing an important need.
2026 年,我們預計 Venclexta 和 Calquence 聯合用藥將獲得全球批准,這將是另一個重要的商業催化劑。這兩個 CLL 領域的領導品牌將為患者提供暫停治療的機會,滿足一個重要的需求。
Double-digit sales growth from Elahere, Epkinly, and Emrelis also helped to partially offset the expected sales decline for Imbruvica, which was down 20.8%, primarily due to continued competitive dynamics. And we do anticipate Imbruvica IRA pricing will unfavorably impact our oncology portfolio growth in 2026.
Elahere、Epkinly 和 Emrelis 兩位數的銷售成長也部分抵消了 Imbruvica 預期的銷售下滑(下降 20.8%),這主要是由於持續的競爭動態造成的。我們預計 Imbruvica IRA 定價將在 2026 年對我們腫瘤產品組合的成長產生不利影響。
Turning now to aesthetics, which delivered global sales of nearly $1.3 billion dollars in the quarter, down 1.2% on an operational basis. Botox Cosmetic global revenues were $717 million dollars, up 3.8% on an operational basis. Juvéderm global sales were $249 million dollars, down 10.8% on an operational basis.
現在來看美容產品,該季度全球銷售額接近 13 億美元,以營運基礎計算下降了 1.2%。Botox Cosmetic的全球收入為7.17億美元,以營運基礎計算成長了3.8%。Juvéderm全球銷售額為2.49億美元,以營運基礎計算下降了10.8%。
As we've seen over the last several quarters, economic headwinds have continued to impact market conditions globally, and we anticipate category growth will remain challenging in 2026. With our leading market shares relatively stable for both toxins and fillers, we are focused on investing to stimulate the market, which remains highly under-penetrated.
正如我們在過去幾季所看到的,經濟逆風持續影響全球市場狀況,我們預期 2026 年該品類的成長仍將面臨挑戰。由於我們在毒素和填充劑領域都擁有相對穩定的領先市場份額,我們正專注於投資以刺激市場,目前該市場滲透率仍然很低。
We expect to further catalyze growth with new promotional programs for Botox, including the Only You campaign that was launched over the last several months with encouraging early results, an unbranded program to educate practices and consumers about the benefit of HA fillers with a focus on driving natural outcomes. As well as additional injector training, which will be supported by our three new AMI training centers in the U.S., as well as training programs in key international geographies.
我們期望透過新的肉毒桿菌推廣計劃進一步促進成長,包括在過去幾個月推出的「Only You」活動,該活動已取得令人鼓舞的早期成果,這是一個非品牌計劃,旨在教育診所和消費者了解透明質酸填充劑的好處,重點是實現自然的效果。除了額外的注射員培訓(這將由我們在美國新建的三個 AMI 培訓中心提供支援)以及在主要國際地區的培訓計劃外,我們還將提供注射員培訓。
Bringing innovation to the Aesthetics market with our pipeline is also a clear priority. We look forward to commercializing TrenibotE, a fast-acting, short-duration toxin, which is expected to be approved in the U.S. later this year. So overall, I'm extremely pleased with the execution across our commercial portfolio, which is demonstrating very, very strong momentum as we head into 2026.
將創新產品引入醫美市場也是我們的明確優先事項。我們期待將速效、短效毒素 TrenibotE 商業化,預計今年稍後在美國獲得批准。總的來說,我對我們商業組合的執行情況非常滿意,它展現出了非常強勁的發展勢頭,讓我們得以邁向 2026 年。
And with that, I will turn the call over to Roopal for comments on our R&D highlights. Roopal?
接下來,我將把電話交給 Roopal,請她對我們的研發亮點發表評論。魯帕爾?
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Thank you, Jeff. I'll start with immunology, where we are on track for numerous important data readouts across all stages of our pipeline this year, as well as several regulatory submissions and approvals.
謝謝你,傑夫。我先從免疫學說起,今年我們在研發管線的各個階段都將按計畫獲得許多重要的數據,同時也將提交幾份監管文件並獲得批准。
Regulatory applications for Rinvoq in non-segmental vitiligo were recently submitted, with an approval decision in the U.S. anticipated in the fourth quarter. Regulatory applications for Rinvoq in alopecia areata are under review in Europe and Japan, with approval decisions expected later this year. Our U.S. submission is planned for the second quarter.
Rinvoq 用於治療非節段型白斑的監管申請已於近期提交,預計美國將在第四季度做出批准決定。Rinvoq治療斑禿的監管申請正在歐洲和日本進行審查,預計今年稍後做出批准決定。我們計劃在第二季向美國提交申請。
Over the course of 2026, results from several late-stage programs are anticipated, including Phase 3 data from studies for both Rinvoq and Lutikizumab in hidradenitis suppurativa and a study evaluating subcutaneous induction with Skyrizi in Crohn's disease. We continue to make substantial progress with our early and mid-stage programs as well, where we have an exciting pipeline of next-generation therapies that have the potential to drive higher efficacy relative to standard of care.
預計在 2026 年將公佈幾個後期計畫的結果,包括 Rinvoq 和 Lutikizumab 治療化膿性汗腺炎的 3 期研究數據,以及一項評估 Skyrizi 皮下誘導治療克羅恩病的研究。我們的早期和中期計畫也持續取得實質進展,我們擁有一系列令人興奮的下一代療法,這些療法有望比標準療法具有更高的療效。
This year, we'll see data from our Crohn's disease platform study evaluating Skyrizi in combination with our novel anti-alpha-4 beta-7 antibody, ABBV-382, and our anti-IL-1 alpha/beta bispecific Lutikizumab. Our extended half-life TL1A antibody will also be evaluated in combination with Skyrizi with a Phase 2B dose-ranging study in Crohn's and ulcerative colitis beginning later this year.
今年,我們將看到來自克隆氏症平台研究的數據,該研究評估了 Skyrizi 與我們新型抗 α-4 β-7 抗體 ABBV-382 和抗 IL-1 α/β 雙特異性抗體 Lutikizumab 聯合使用的效果。我們延長半衰期的 TL1A 抗體也將與 Skyrizi 聯合進行評估,一項針對克羅恩病和潰瘍性結腸炎的 2B 期劑量範圍研究將於今年稍後開始。
Separately, a Phase 2 study is underway to evaluate our TREM1 antibody as a monotherapy in Crohn's disease. Data from this study will be available later this year and will help inform our combination strategy for this molecule.
另外,我們正在進行一項 2 期研究,以評估我們的 TREM1 抗體作為克隆氏症單一療法的療效。這項研究的數據將於今年稍後公佈,並將有助於我們制定針對該分子的組合策略。
The Phase 1b trial for ABBV-319, our anti-CD19 ADC with a steroid payload, is now underway. And we will soon begin dosing patients with our in vivo CD19 CAR-T, ABBV-619. These B-cell depleting approaches have the potential to become transformative modalities to reset the immune system and provide deep, durable, drug-free remission for patients with autoimmune diseases.
我們的抗 CD19 抗體偶聯藥物 ABBV-319(一種含有類固醇有效載荷的藥物)的 1b 期試驗正在進行中。我們很快就會開始使用我們的體內 CD19 CAR-T 療法 ABBV-619 對患者進行治療。這些清除 B 細胞的方法有可能成為重塑免疫系統的變革性手段,並為自體免疫疾病患者提供深度、持久、無藥物的緩解。
Individual patient data from dose escalation studies will be available on a rolling basis, and we anticipate seeing efficacy results later this year. Several additional immunology assets will also be entering the clinic this year, including an extended half-life anti-IL-23 antibody and an oral peptide IL-23 inhibitor.
劑量遞增研究的個別患者數據將陸續公佈,我們預計今年稍後將看到療效結果。今年還將有幾項免疫學資產進入臨床階段,包括長效抗IL-23抗體和口服勝肽IL-23抑制劑。
Moving to oncology, progress continues with our next-generation c-Met ADC Temab-A. Strong data have been observed in late-line colorectal cancer as both a monotherapy and in combination with bevacizumab. Therefore, we will be initiating a Phase 3 study this year in an all-comers population in combination with VEGF.
在腫瘤學領域,我們的下一代 c-Met ADC Temab-A 取得了持續進展。在晚期大腸直腸癌治療中,無論是作為單一療法或與貝伐珠單抗聯合療法,都觀察到了強有力的數據。因此,我們今年將啟動一項針對所有人群的 3 期研究,該研究將與 VEGF 聯合使用。
Dose optimization continues for Temab-A in non-small cell lung cancer, where both EGFR wild type and EGFR mutant populations are being evaluated. Data from these studies will be available next year, informing our Phase 3 path.
Temab-A 在非小細胞肺癌中的劑量優化仍在繼續,目前正在評估 EGFR 野生型和 EGFR 突變型族群。這些研究的數據將於明年公佈,為我們的第三階段計畫提供基礎。
In pancreatic cancer, Temab-A will be studied in combination with different regimens of chemotherapy. Later this year, data is anticipated in head and neck and ovarian cancer.
在胰臟癌治療中,Temab-A 將與不同的化療方案進行研究。預計今年稍後將公佈頭頸癌和卵巢癌的數據。
We're making very good progress across several tumor types with Temab-A. We recently announced a deal with RemeGen for a PD1-VEGF antibody. This molecule will be a nice complement to our ADC portfolio and has demonstrated competitive monotherapy efficacy as well as encouraging early data in ADC and chemo combinations.
Temab-A 在多種腫瘤類型中都取得了非常好的進展。我們最近宣布與 RemeGen 達成一項關於 PD1-VEGF 抗體的協議。該分子將很好地補充我們的 ADC 產品組合,並已證明具有競爭力的單藥治療療效,以及在 ADC 和化療聯合治療中令人鼓舞的早期數據。
Our strategy is to initially combine this PD-1/VEGF with Temab-A in lung and colorectal, with other tumor types also under consideration. These novel combinations have the potential to drive faster disease control, longer duration, and ultimately longer survival.
我們的策略是先將這種 PD-1/VEGF 與 Temab-A 聯合用於肺癌和大腸癌,其他腫瘤類型也在考慮之中。這些新穎的組合有可能更快控制疾病,延長病程,並最終延長存活期。
In small cell lung cancer, a Phase 2 trial for ABBV-706 in combination with atezolizumab recently began in treatment-naïve patients. A Phase 3 study in second-line plus patients is also planned to initiate this year.
在小細胞肺癌領域,最近一項針對初治患者的 ABBV-706 與阿特珠單抗聯合治療的 2 期試驗已經開始。今年也計劃啟動一項針對二線及以上患者的 3 期研究。
In hematologic malignancies, the regulatory application for PVEK and blastic plasmacytoid dendritic cell neoplasm is under review with the FDA. An approval decision is anticipated later this year.
在血液系統惡性腫瘤方面,PVEK 和母細胞性漿細胞樣樹突狀細胞腫瘤的監管申請正在接受 FDA 的審查。預計將於今年稍後做出批准決定。
Enrollment is projected to complete this quarter in our Phase 3 trial evaluating monotherapy Etentamig in third-line plus multiple myeloma, with an objective response rate readout anticipated in the second half of this year. A Phase 2 study of Etentamig plus daratumumab in front-line transplant ineligible patients was recently initiated. Additionally, a Phase 3 study in second-line evaluating Etentamig with pomalidomide is expected to begin by early 2027.
預計本季將完成對三線及以上多發性骨髓瘤單藥治療 Etentamig 的 3 期試驗的患者招募,客觀緩解率結果預計將於今年下半年公佈。最近啟動了一項針對不適合一線移植患者的 Etentamig 聯合 daratumumab 的 II 期研究。此外,一項評估 Etentamig 與泊馬度胺聯合治療二線療法的 3 期研究預計將於 2027 年初開始。
Turning to Neuroscience, in our Movement Disorder programs, an approval decision is anticipated in the third quarter for Tavapadon in Parkinson's disease. As a highly effective treatment for motor symptoms with low rates of dyskinesia, edema, sedation, and impulse control disorder, Tavapadon has the potential to be an important new treatment option, both as a monotherapy and as an adjunct to levodopa-carbidopa in patients still experiencing motor fluctuations.
轉向神經科學領域,在我們的運動障礙計畫中,預計在第三季將對用於治療帕金森氏症的Tavapadon做出批准決定。Tavapadon 是一種治療運動症狀的高效藥物,其運動障礙、水腫、鎮靜和衝動控制障礙的發生率較低,因此它有可能成為一種重要的新治療選擇,既可以作為單一療法,也可以作為左旋多巴-卡比多巴的輔助療法,用於治療仍有運動波動的患者。
This year, a Phase 2 study assessing GemibotA in essential tremor will begin. Essential tremor is the most common movement disorder and an area with considerable need for effective and tolerable therapies. Unlike most patients with spasticity, patients with essential tremor typically have normal strength. Therefore, it is important that neighboring muscles are not inadvertently affected. And this is by toxin diffusion. Our new toxin is highly potent and has the potential for less spread to neighboring muscles, making it well-suited for treating essential tremor.
今年將啟動一項評估 GemibotA 治療原發性震顫的 2 期研究。原發性震顫是最常見的運動障礙,也是亟需有效且耐受性良好的治療方法的領域。與大多數痙攣患者不同,原發性震顫患者通常肌力正常。因此,重要的是不要無意中影響到鄰近的肌肉。這是透過毒素擴散來實現的。我們新研發的毒素效力極強,且擴散到鄰近肌肉的可能性較小,因此非常適合用於治療特發性震顫。
In migraine, the Phase 3 Eclipse trial evaluating Qulipta for acute treatment of migraine met its primary and key secondary endpoints, with Qulipta demonstrating superiority over placebo. Approval decisions in Europe and Japan are expected later this year.
在偏頭痛方面,評估 Qulipta 用於急性偏頭痛治療的 3 期 Eclipse 試驗達到了其主要和關鍵次要終點,Qulipta 顯示出優於安慰劑的療效。預計歐洲和日本的審批決定將於今年稍後公佈。
Our Phase 3 studies evaluating Qulipta and Ubrelvy for menstrual migraine prevention are progressing well, with data from both trials expected in the second half of this year. Regulatory submission for Qulipta in Europe is anticipated later this year and for Ubrelvy in the U.S. in 2027.
我們正在進行 Qulipta 和 Ubrelvy 用於預防經期偏頭痛的 3 期研究,目前進展順利,預計今年下半年將公佈兩項試驗的數據。Qulipta 預計將於今年稍晚在歐洲提交監管申請,Ubrelvy 預計將於 2027 年在美國提交監管申請。
Menstrual migraine is a distinct subtype affecting nearly 15% of women with migraine. Attacks are considered more difficult to treat, more disabling, last longer, and have a higher tendency to recur. There is a clear need for more effective treatment for this form of migraine.
月經性偏頭痛是一種獨特的亞型,影響近 15% 的偏頭痛女性患者。發作被認為更難治療、更容易殘疾、持續時間更長,且更容易復發。顯然,我們需要更有效的治療方法來應對這種類型的偏頭痛。
In the area of psychiatry, several readouts and study starts are planned this year across multiple programs. Our dose escalation study continues for amyloid in schizophrenia, with the 75 milligrams dose cleared and 100 milligrams currently being assessed.
在精神病學領域,今年計劃在多個計畫中進行多項研究並發布研究結果。我們正在繼續進行精神分裂症澱粉樣蛋白的劑量遞增研究,75 毫克劑量已獲批准,目前正在評估 100 毫克劑量。
Further dose escalation is planned until a tolerability threshold is reached. Based on the favorable profile with 75 milligrams and the potential to move the dose even higher, amyloid will be moving forward in development as both a monotherapy and adjunct of treatment for schizophrenia.
計劃進一步增加劑量,直至達到耐受閾值。鑑於 75 毫克劑量下的良好療效以及劑量進一步提高的潛力,澱粉樣蛋白將作為精神分裂症的單一療法和輔助療法繼續推進研發。
Dose ranging in elderly patients is also ongoing, which will support development plans in psychosis related to Alzheimer's, Parkinson's, and dementia with Lewy bodies. Phase 2 studies across all indications will begin after the completion of multiple ascending dose evaluation.
目前也正在進行老年患者的劑量範圍研究,這將支持阿茲海默症、帕金森氏症和路易氏體失智症相關精神病的研發計畫。在完成多次遞增劑量評估後,將開始針對所有適應症的 2 期研究。
The Phase 2 study for ABBV-932 in bipolar depression is nearing completion, and data is expected around the middle of this year. Data from the generalized anxiety disorder Phase 2 is anticipated in the early part of 2027.
ABBV-932治療雙極性憂鬱症的第二期研究即將完成,預計今年年中左右公佈數據。預計將於 2027 年初獲得廣泛性焦慮症第二階段的數據。
This year, data from two additional cohorts from a Phase 2 study evaluating Bretisilocin in major depressive disorder will help inform our development strategy and Phase 3 plans. This short-acting psychedelic demonstrated very strong and durable efficacy in a preliminary Phase 2 study. Based on this emerging profile, bretisilocin has the potential to become a groundbreaking new treatment in depression.
今年,來自一項評估 Bretisilocin 治療重度憂鬱症的 2 期研究的兩個額外隊列的數據將有助於指導我們的開發策略和 3 期計劃。這種短效迷幻藥在初步的 2 期研究中表現出非常強效且持久的療效。根據這種新出現的特性,bretisilocin 有可能成為治療憂鬱症的突破性新療法。
Moving to other areas of our pipeline. In obesity, data will be available this year from 2 ongoing Phase 1 studies evaluating our long-acting amylin analog, ABBV-295, in overweight and obese patients. Results will guide our Phase 2 program, which is expected to begin near the end of this year.
轉向我們管道的其他部分。在肥胖症方面,今年將有兩項正在進行的 1 期研究的數據公佈,這兩項研究評估了我們的長效胰淀素類似物 ABBV-295 在超重和肥胖患者中的療效。研究結果將指導我們的第二階段計劃,該計劃預計將於今年年底開始。
In Aesthetics, the regulatory application for our rapid onset short-acting toxin, TrenibotE, is under review, and an approval decision is expected this year.
在美容領域,我們快速起效、短效毒素 TrenibotE 的監管申請正在審查中,預計今年將做出批准決定。
To summarize, we continue to demonstrate significant progress across all stages of our pipeline and anticipate many important regulatory and clinical milestones in 2026.
總而言之,我們在研發管線的各個階段都持續取得了顯著進展,並預計在 2026 年將實現許多重要的監管和臨床里程碑。
With that, I'll turn the call over to Scott.
接下來,我將把電話交給史考特。
Scott Reents - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Scott Reents - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Roopal. Starting with our fourth quarter results, we reported adjusted earnings-per-share of $2.71, which is $0.08 above our guidance midpoint. These results include a $0.71 unfavorable impact from acquired IPR&D expense.
謝謝你,魯帕爾。從我們第四季度的業績來看,我們公佈的調整後每股收益為 2.71 美元,比我們預期的中位數高出 0.08 美元。這些結果包括收購知識產權研發費用帶來的 0.71 美元不利影響。
Total net revenues were $16.6 billion, reflecting robust growth of 10%, including a 0.5% favorable impact from foreign exchange. Our ex-Humira growth platform delivered reported growth of 14.5%, once again exceeding our expectations.
總淨收入為 166 億美元,實現了 10% 的強勁成長,其中包括 0.5% 的外匯有利影響。我們原先的Humira成長平台實現了14.5%的成長,再次超出了我們的預期。
Adjusted gross margin was 83.6% of sales, adjusted R&D expense was 15.4% of sales, and adjusted SG&A expense was 22.3% of sales. The adjusted operating margin was 38.3% of sales, which included a 7.6% unfavorable impact from acquired IPR&D expense.
調整後的毛利率為銷售額的 83.6%,調整後的研發費用為銷售額的 15.4%,調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用為銷售額的 22.3%。調整後的營業利潤率為銷售額的 38.3%,其中包括收購智慧財產權研發費用帶來的 7.6% 的不利影響。
Net interest expense was $655 million dollars. The adjusted tax rate was 18.3%, reflecting the lower deductibility of the acquired IPR&D expense this quarter.
淨利息支出為6.55億美元。調整後的稅率為 18.3%,反映出本季收購的智慧財產權研發費用可抵扣額較低。
Turning to our financial outlook for 2026, our full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance is between $14.37 and $14.57. Please note that this guidance does not include an estimate for acquired IPR&D expense that may be incurred throughout the year.
展望2026年財務前景,我們預計全年調整後每股收益將介於14.37美元至14.57美元之間。請注意,此預期不包括全年可能產生的收購智慧財產權研發費用。
We expect total net revenues of approximately $67 billion dollars, reflecting growth of 9.5%. At current rates, we expect foreign exchange to have a roughly 0.8% favorable impact on full-year sales growth. This revenue forecast contemplates the following approximate assumptions for select key products and therapeutic areas.
我們預計總淨收入約為 670 億美元,年增 9.5%。以目前的匯率計算,我們預期外匯波動將對全年銷售成長產生約 0.8% 的有利影響。此收入預測考慮了以下針對特定重點產品和治療領域的近似假設。
We expect global immunology sales of $34.5 billion dollars, including Skyrizi revenue of $21.5 billion, driven by market growth and share gains across the psoriatic and IBD indications; Rinvoq revenue of $10.1 billion, with growth across Rheum, Derm, and Gastro indications; and Humira total revenue of $2.9 billion, reflecting continued biosimilar impact.
我們預計全球免疫學銷售額將達到 345 億美元,其中包括 Skyrizi 收入 215 億美元,這主要得益於銀屑病和發炎性腸道疾病適應症的市場增長和份額提升;Rinvoq 收入 101 億美元,這主要得益於風濕病、皮膚病和腸道適應症的增長;以及 Humira 收入總收入。
For Neuroscience, we expect global sales of $12.5 billion dollars, reflecting robust double-digit growth. This includes Vraylar revenue of $4 billion, driven by continued strong prescription demand; Botox Therapeutic sales of $4.1 billion, with strong performance across indications; total Oral CGRP revenue of $2.9 billion, supported by market growth and share gains; and Vyalev sales of $1 billion, demonstrating the brand's impressive launch and multi-billion-dollar potential.
神經科學領域,我們預計全球銷售額將達到 125 億美元,實現強勁的兩位數成長。其中包括 Vraylar 40 億美元的收入,這得益於持續強勁的處方需求;Botox Therapeutic 41 億美元的銷售額,在各個適應症中均表現強勁;Oral CGRP 29 億美元的總收入,這得益於市場增長和份額提升;以及 Vyalev 10 億美元的銷售額,這表明該品牌的上市並具有了數十億美元的銷售潛力。
In Oncology, we expect global sales of $6.5 billion, including Imbruvica revenue of $2.2 billion, reflecting competitive headwinds and the impact of lower IRA-related pricing; Venclexta sales of $3 billion, which reflects continued strong demand; and Elahere revenue of $850 million.
在腫瘤領域,我們預計全球銷售額為 65 億美元,其中包括 Imbruvica 收入 22 億美元,這反映了競爭逆風和 IRA 相關定價降低的影響;Venclexta 銷售額為 30 億美元,這反映了持續強勁的需求;以及 Elahere 收入 8.5 億美元。
For Aesthetics, we expect global sales of $5 billion. This includes Botox Cosmetic revenue of $2.7 billion, reflecting modest market growth and relatively stable market share; and Juvéderm sales of $950 million, reflecting continued headwinds in key dermal filler markets.
我們預計美容產品的全球銷售額將達到 50 億美元。其中包括肉毒桿菌化妝品收入 27 億美元,反映出市場成長溫和,市場份額相對穩定;以及喬雅登銷售額 9.5 億美元,反映出主要皮膚填充劑市場持續面臨不利因素。
Moving to the P&L for 2026, we are forecasting full-year adjusted gross margin above 84% of sales, adjusted R&D expense of approximately $9.7 billion dollars, and adjusted SG&A expense of approximately $14.2 billion dollars. We also expect an adjusted operating margin ratio of approximately 48.5%, reflecting meaningful expansion compared to 2025.
展望 2026 年的損益表,我們預測全年調整後的毛利率將超過銷售額的 84%,調整後的研發費用約為 97 億美元,調整後的銷售、一般及行政費用約為 142 億美元。我們也預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 48.5%,與 2025 年相比將顯著成長。
We expect adjusted net interest expense of approximately $2.8 billion dollars, which includes anticipated refinancing. We forecast our non-GAAP tax rate to be approximately 14%, reflecting a modest underlying improvement compared to 2025, due to recent tax law changes. Keep in mind that last year's non-GAAP tax rate of 18% included a 3% impact from acquired IPR&D expense. Finally, we expect our share count to be roughly in-line with 2025.
我們預計調整後的淨利息支出約為 28 億美元,其中包括預期的再融資。我們預測,由於近期稅法的變化,我們的非GAAP稅率約為14%,與2025年相比,基本面將略有改善。請注意,去年的非GAAP稅率為18%,其中包括收購IPR&D費用帶來的3%的影響。最後,我們預計我們的股份數量將與 2025 年大致持平。
Turning to the first quarter, we anticipate net revenues of approximately $14.7 billion dollars. At current rates, we expect foreign exchange to have a roughly 2% favorable impact on sales growth. This revenue forecast considers the following approximate assumptions for key products and selected therapeutic areas.
展望第一季度,我們預計淨收入約為 147 億美元。以目前的匯率計算,我們預期外匯波動將對銷售成長產生約 2% 的有利影響。此收入預測考慮了以下針對主要產品和選定治療領域的近似假設。
We expect global immunology sales to approach $7.1 billion dollars, including Skyrizi sales of $4.4 billion dollars and Rinvoq revenue of $2 billion dollars, reflecting typical seasonality as well as an unfavorable price comparison for Rinvoq related to timing of prior year rebates in the first half.
我們預計全球免疫學銷售額將接近 71 億美元,其中包括 Skyrizi 的銷售額 44 億美元和 Rinvoq 的收入 20 億美元,這反映了典型的季節性因素,以及 Rinvoq 由於上半年返利時間安排而導致的不利價格比較。
We also anticipate Neuroscience revenue of $2.8 billion dollars, Oncology sales of $1.6 billion dollars, and Aesthetics revenue of $1.2 billion dollars, reflecting growth of roughly 9%, including a favorable comparison as we lap one-time price headwinds associated with changes to the Alle program.
我們也預期神經科學收入為 28 億美元,腫瘤學銷售額為 16 億美元,美容收入為 12 億美元,成長約 9%,其中包括有利的基數,因為我們克服了與 Alle 項目變化相關的一次性價格不利因素。
We are forecasting an adjusted operating margin ratio of roughly 46% and model a non-GAAP tax rate of approximately 13.7%. We expect adjusted earnings per share between $2.97 and $3.01. This guidance does not include acquired IPR&D expense that may be incurred in the quarter.
我們預測調整後的營業利潤率約為 46%,並模擬非 GAAP 稅率約為 13.7%。我們預計調整後每股收益在 2.97 美元至 3.01 美元之間。此預期不包括本季可能產生的收購知識產權研發費用。
Finally, AbbVie's robust business performance continues to support our capital allocation priorities. Our cash balance at the end of December was approximately $5.2 billion dollars, and we expect to generate free cash flow of approximately $18.5 billion in 2026, which includes roughly $3.5 billion of Skyrizi royalty payments. This free cash flow will support a strong and growing quarterly dividend, which we have increased by more than 330% since inception, as well as investments in business development to further enhance our portfolio.
最後,艾伯維強勁的業務表現持續支持我們的資本配置重點。截至 12 月底,我們的現金餘額約為 52 億美元,預計 2026 年將產生約 185 億美元的自由現金流,其中包括約 35 億美元的 Skyrizi 特許權使用費。這筆自由現金流將支持強勁且不斷增長的季度股息(自成立以來,我們已將股息提高了 330% 以上),以及對業務發展的投資,以進一步增強我們的投資組合。
In closing, we are pleased with AbbVie's results in 2025, and our financial outlook remains very strong. We have significant momentum across our diverse portfolio and are well-positioned to deliver strong results in 2026 and beyond.
最後,我們對艾伯維2025年的業績感到滿意,並且我們的財務前景仍然非常強勁。我們多元化的業務組合發展勢頭強勁,完全有能力在 2026 年及以後取得優異的業績。
With that, I'll turn the call back over to Liz.
這樣,我就把電話轉回給莉茲了。
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, Scott. We will now open the call for questions. In the interest of hearing from as many analysts as possible over the remainder of the call, we ask that you please limit your questions to one or two. Operator, we'll take the first question, please.
謝謝你,斯科特。現在開始接受提問。為了讓盡可能多的分析師在電話會議的剩餘時間裡都能發表意見,我們懇請您將問題限制在一到兩個以內。接線員,我們先來回答第一個問題。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Dave Risinger, Leerink Partners.
(操作說明)Dave Risinger,Leerink Partners。
David Risinger - Analyst
David Risinger - Analyst
Congrats on the solid fourth quarter and the momentum of the company. I just have one question, which is -- you mentioned the psychedelic that's in development. Could you please provide some more details on that, including the opportunity to improve upon the profile of J&J's Spravato?
恭喜公司第四季業績穩健,發展動能良好。我只有一個問題,那就是──你提到了正在研發中的迷幻藥。能否提供更多細節,包括如何提升強生旗下Spravato的知名度?
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
It's Roopal, I'll take that one. We see this one as a potential breakthrough type of therapy in a couple of elements.
是魯帕爾,我就要這個。我們認為這種療法在某些方面具有突破性潛力。
One is it works through 5-HT2A serotonergic pathway and has a short acting, I would say, hallucination time period where patients experience the potential hallucinations upfront and then it rapidly goes away. And what we've observed is that you see immediate efficacy and then you see that efficacy held on for quite some time. So that's a benefit. And these patients are then able to stay for a short time in the clinic and then leave.
一是它透過 5-HT2A 血清素路徑發揮作用,而且作用時間短,可以說,幻覺持續時間短,患者會先經歷潛在的幻覺,然後幻覺會迅速消失。我們觀察到的情況是,它能立即見效,而且這種效果能持續相當長一段時間。所以這是個好處。這些患者隨後可以在診所短暫停留,然後離開。
The other notable differences from any other medications in this space are the very high levels of efficacy that we've observed and that almost led to a remission-like state in the majority of patients. Now we have two more readouts before the Phase 3 begins. In those readouts, what we're doing is reducing the dose of the control arm. Recall, the data that we've seen thus far were not against placebo. They were, in fact, against an active control of the drug itself, which that data looked pretty good.
該藥物與其他同類藥物相比,另一個顯著的差異在於,我們觀察到其療效非常高,幾乎使大多數患者達到了類似緩解的狀態。在第三階段開始之前,我們還有兩次數據公佈。在這些讀數中,我們所做的就是降低對照組的劑量。請記住,我們目前看到的數據並不反對安慰劑效應。事實上,他們反對對藥物本身進行積極管控,而數據顯示藥物的管控效果相當不錯。
But when you looked at the main dose, it looked very impressive. So we're going to look at a comparator with a slightly lower dose of self control, and then that'll read out, I would say, by Q3 or so. Then we'll have a Phase 3 plan going forward that we'll discuss with regulators. This has a potential to be highly differentiated.
但當你看到主要劑量時,它看起來非常驚人。所以我們將觀察一個自控力稍低的對照組,然後,我想,到第三季左右就會有結果出來。接下來,我們將制定第三階段計劃,並與監管機構進行討論。這有可能具有高度差異化。
Operator
Operator
Chris Schott, JPMorgan.
克里斯‧肖特,摩根大通。
Christopher Schott - Analyst
Christopher Schott - Analyst
Just a couple of partners on the immunology franchise. I guess just first on Skyrizi in IBD. It sounds like you haven't really seen any change in new start share here with the Tremfya entry. My question is, is that the case in both Crohn's and UC, or is that just more a holistic kind of IBD comment?
免疫學領域只有幾個合作夥伴。我猜首先是Skyrizi在IBD上的表現。聽起來你似乎沒有看到 Tremfya 入駐後新進員工人數有任何變化。我的問題是,這種情況在克隆氏症和潰瘍性結腸炎中都存在嗎?還是說這只是對發炎性腸道疾病的一種整體性描述?
And my kind of bigger picture question is, I've been reading more investors feeling that the street now better understands the potential for Skyrizi and Rinvoq over time, and as a result, there's no longer as much potential upside to numbers.
而我更宏觀的問題是,我看到越來越多的投資者認為,市場現在更了解 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 的長期潛力,因此,這些數字不再有那麼大的上漲空間。
I guess I'd just be interested in your view of consensus growth expectations for these assets over time. Is the market now largely getting this right at this point? Or do you see further potential for growth upside as you think about the breadth of indications, et cetera?
我想了解您對這些資產未來成長的普遍預期有何看法。目前市場對這點的判斷是否基本正確?或者,考慮到適應症的廣泛性等等,您是否認為還有進一步的成長潛力?
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. Hi, Chris. It's Jeff. So we see some slight distinctions between the capture rate for Skyrizi in Crohn's versus UC, and that's really probably largely based on when the launches took place with the competitors. But as I mentioned, and it may not be widely understood, we see definitely a bifurcation in where the capture rate is coming. It's quite clear that our new patient starts are very, very stable, and they're very high in both UC and Crohn's.
是的。嗨,克里斯。是傑夫。因此,我們看到 Skyrizi 在克羅恩病和潰瘍性結腸炎中的捕獲率略有不同,這很可能主要取決於與競爭對手一起上市的時間。但正如我所提到的,雖然可能沒有被廣泛理解,但我們確實看到捕獲率的來源出現了明顯的兩極化。很明顯,我們的新患者數量非常穩定,而且潰瘍性結腸炎和克隆氏症的發生率都非常高。
If you look at where the starts are coming from, and I mentioned in my prepared remarks, we have very, very high capture rates, 75% overall in IBD in frontline setting, which sort of gives you a sense of where the preference of the customers are. And it's 80%. I didn't highlight that in my speech. It's 80% in Crohn's, so it's slightly lower in UC on the frontline setting.
如果你看看這些客戶來自哪裡,正如我在準備好的演講稿中提到的,我們在 IBD 的一線環境中獲得了非常非常高的轉換率,總體高達 75%,這讓你大致了解了客戶的偏好。是 80%。我在演講中沒有重點提及這一點。克隆氏症患者的治癒率是 80%,所以潰瘍性結腸炎第一線治療患者的治癒率會略低一些。
So we see the dynamics, again, as very stable and high new patient starts despite the competitive entrant, high capture rates, leading capture rates by far in frontline, which is really, really critical, which gives you a sense the competitor is coming in and capturing in the second line. And then overall, we see a very substantial overall IL-23 category expansion.
因此,我們再次看到,儘管有競爭對手進入市場,但市場動態依然非常穩定,新患者數量仍然很高,而且一線患者的捕獲率遙遙領先,這非常非常關鍵,這讓你感覺競爭對手正在進入二線市場並搶佔先機。總體而言,我們看到IL-23類別出現了非常顯著的擴張。
So when we look at all of those dynamics, our competition level is extremely high, and we're very, very comfortable with the momentum that we're going to continue to see with Skyrizi, even before we get to Rinvoq coming in in the later line. So that gives you some sense overall in IBD.
所以當我們審視所有這些動態時,我們的競爭水平非常高,我們對 Skyrizi 將繼續保持的發展勢頭感到非常非常滿意,甚至在 Rinvoq 稍後加入之前也是如此。這樣你就能對IBD有一個大致的了解了。
I'll let maybe Rob address the second question.
第二個問題就讓羅布來回答吧。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So Chris, this is Rob. Thanks for your question. Look, I see numerous sources of upside across the enterprise. I'll start with your question on Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
是的。克里斯,這位是羅伯。謝謝你的提問。你看,我看到公司內部有很多成長點。我先回答你關於 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 的問題。
Obviously, the combined guidance for this year is already half a billion higher than our 2027 estimate. And we do expect both Skyrizi and Rinvoq to grow robustly into the 2030s. And clearly, as we look at models, that longer-term growth is not reflected.
顯然,今年的綜合預期已經比我們 2027 年的預期高出 5 億美元。我們預計 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 都將在 2030 年代實現強勁成長。顯然,當我們審視各種模型時,並沒有發現這種長期成長的趨勢。
And so we do think on a longer-term basis, there's clearly more upside to Skyrizi and Rinvoq. And then when you consider things like the market growth projections, we'll gain share along with the next wave of Rinvoq indications. We have a lot of confidence in the long-term potential for those two assets.
因此,我們認為從長遠來看,Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 顯然還有更大的上漲空間。考慮到市場成長預測等因素,隨著 Rinvoq 下一波適應症的推出,我們將獲得更大的市場份額。我們對這兩項資產的長期潛力充滿信心。
But beyond Immunology, when you look at AbbVie, I think what's underappreciated is both, I'd say, Neuroscience and Oncology in particular. I'd say Neuroscience clearly overperforming. We delivered nearly 20% growth last year. We expect to deliver mid-teens growth this year. It'll put us in the number one position in the industry.
但除了免疫學之外,當你審視艾伯維公司時,我認為被低估的是神經科學和腫瘤學,尤其是這兩個領域。我認為神經科學的表現明顯超乎預期。我們去年實現了近20%的成長。我們預計今年將實現兩位數中段的成長。這將使我們成為行業第一。
I mean, Vyalev will already achieve our peak sales guidance this year. We had given long-term guidance of greater than $1 billion dollars peak. We're guiding to $1 billion. We think our Parkinson's franchise, including Vyalev, Duopa, and Tavapadon, can achieve peak sales in excess of $5 billion. That's not reflected in treatment models.
我的意思是,Vyalev 今年就能達到我們預期的銷售高峰。我們曾給予長期預期,高峰將超過10億美元。我們預計達到10億美元。我們認為,包括 Vyalev、Duopa 和 Tavapadon 在內的帕金森氏症產品線,其銷售額高峰可超過 50 億美元。這一點並未體現在治療模式中。
And given the ramp of our oral CGRPs, we believe our migraine franchise will also exceed $5 billion in peak sales. Recall, we gave peak sales estimates of greater than $3 billion. Based on this year's guidance, we're almost there. And so clearly, the street is not modeling that type of upside for our migraine business.
鑑於我們口服 CGRP 藥物的快速成長,我們相信我們的偏頭痛產品線銷售額高峰也將超過 50 億美元。回想一下,我們曾預測高峰銷售額將超過 30 億美元。根據今年的指導方針,我們幾乎已經接近目標了。顯然,華爾街並沒有對我們的偏頭痛業務抱持這種程度的樂觀預期。
In psychiatry, we have several next-generation assets with 932 bretisilocin, as Roopal highlighted, and emraclidine, which we're clearly studying the dose. That can help replace the $5 billion peak of Vraylar after its LOE in 2030. So we're in a very strong position to lead in Neuroscience for the long term with three $5 billion dollar-plus franchises.
在精神病學領域,我們擁有幾項下一代資產,包括 Roopal 強調的 932 bretisilocin 和 emraclidine,我們顯然正在研究其劑量。這有助於彌補 Vraylar 在 2030 年到期後 50 億美元的峰值損失。因此,憑藉三個價值超過 50 億美元的特許經營權,我們在神經科學領域處於非常有利的地位,預計將長期領先。
And I haven't even mentioned essential tremor or other therapeutic toxin indications or the opportunity in Alzheimer's. We have, I'd say, a profound opportunity to lead in Neuroscience for the long term, and that's clearly not reflected in street models.
我甚至還沒有提到特發性震顫或其他治療毒素適應症,也沒有提到阿茲海默症治療的機會。我認為,我們擁有在神經科學領域長期引領發展的絕佳機會,但這顯然沒有體現在街頭模型中。
When I look at Oncology, we have a very compelling pipeline that doesn't get enough attention. I mean, for example, our ADC Temab-A has shown promising data in CRC, lung, gastroesophageal, and pancreatic cancers. In CRC alone, Temab-A has the potential to be a multi-billion-dollar opportunity, not to mention the other solid tumors that it could potentially treat.
當我審視腫瘤學領域時,我們發現我們擁有非常有吸引力的產品線,但卻沒有得到足夠的關注。我的意思是,例如,我們的 ADC 藥物 Temab-A 在 CRC、肺癌、胃食道癌和胰腺癌中都顯示出了令人鼓舞的數據。僅就 CRC 而言,Temab-A 就有可能帶來數十億美元的商機,更不用說它還可能治療其他實體瘤。
We also have exciting opportunities in oncology such as etentamig and the follow-on trispecifics in multiple myeloma, 706 in small cell lung cancer, and 969 in prostate cancer. So we have many opportunities to deliver upside to street long-term estimates. And with no significant LOEs until the next decade, we have plenty of capacity to invest in both internal and external innovation to drive very strong long-term growth.
我們在腫瘤學領域也有令人興奮的機會,例如用於治療多發性骨髓瘤的 etentamig 和後續三特異性藥物、用於治療小細胞肺癌的 706 以及用於治療前列腺癌的 969。因此,我們有很多機會可以超越市場對長期業績的預期。由於未來十年內不會出現重大的支出,我們有足夠的能力投資於內部和外部創新,從而推動非常強勁的長期成長。
Operator
Operator
Terence Flynn, Morgan Stanley.
Terence Flynn,摩根士丹利。
Terence Flynn - Analyst
Terence Flynn - Analyst
Maybe two for me. Rob, appreciate just your recent comments on looking at external innovation. Maybe you could give us an update on your BD lens, kind of the size and risk profile of potential deals you might consider. I know you did more of the early-stage deals as you walked through at the beginning of the call, but how are you thinking about the opportunities that are going forward here?
也許我有兩個。羅布,非常感謝你最近關於關注外部創新的評論。或許您可以向我們介紹您的業務拓展策略,例如您可能會考慮的潛在交易的規模和風險狀況。我知道你之前在電話會議開始時提到,你主要做的是早期階段的交易,但你如何看待未來這裡的機會呢?
And then maybe for Roopal, just wondering if you can frame expectations for the upcoming Rinvoq and Lutikizumab Phase 3 HS data in terms of what you'd like to see from a target profile perspective.
然後,對於 Roopal,我想知道您能否從目標概況的角度,對即將公佈的 Rinvoq 和 Lutikizumab 3 期人體試驗數據提出一些期望。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Hi, Terence. Rob, so I'll take your first question here. You're right. If you look at in the last two years, we've invested over $8 billion in external innovation that have added significant depth to our pipeline with more than 30 deals. And again, these are opportunities that can drive growth in the next decade and beyond.
你好,特倫斯。羅布,那我就先回答你的第一個問題。你說得對。如果回顧過去兩年,我們已在外部創新方面投資超過 80 億美元,這極大地豐富了我們的產品線,促成了 30 多項交易。再次強調,這些都是能夠推動未來十年及更長時間內成長的機會。
To recap, I mean, in Immunology, we've added new mechanisms such as TL1A and TREM1 that can play a key role in our combination strategy. We've added oral peptides capabilities from Nimble, the in vivo CAR-T platform from Capstan.
總而言之,我的意思是,在免疫學領域,我們新增了 TL1A 和 TREM1 等機制,它們可以在我們的聯合治療策略中發揮關鍵作用。我們新增了來自 Nimble 的口服勝肽功能,以及來自 Capstan 的體內 CAR-T 平台。
In Neuroscience, again, our next-generation assets in psychiatry, 932, bretisilocin, and emraclidine, have all come through BD. We acquired a very compelling brain shuttle platform from Aliada that gives us, I'd say, a very compelling opportunity in Alzheimer's.
同樣在神經科學領域,我們在精神科領域的下一代資產,932、bretisilocin 和 emraclidine,都是透過 BD 公司引進的。我們從 Aliada 收購了一個非常有吸引力的腦穿梭平台,我認為這為我們在阿茲海默症領域提供了一個非常有吸引力的機會。
In Oncology, we've added trispecifics and multiple myeloma that can follow etentamig, the in vivo CAR-T platform from Umoja, as well as a PD-1 VEGF antibody, which I highlighted in my remarks, which will complement our ADC portfolio.
在腫瘤學領域,我們新增了三特異性抗體和多發性骨髓瘤抗體,它們可以與 Umoja 的體內 CAR-T 平台 etentamig 聯用,此外還有我在發言中重點提到的 PD-1 VEGF 抗體,這將完善我們的 ADC 產品組合。
I should also mention the siRNA platform from ADARx can really generate opportunities across all three of those therapeutic areas. I mean, we're clearly focused on early-stage opportunities so that we have solid growth drivers in the middle part of the next decade, given how sizable we expect Skyrizi and Rinvoq to be. That's also why we utilize BD to enter into another growth area in obesity, which we will build upon as we identify other differentiated assets.
我還應該提到,ADARx 的 siRNA 平台確實可以在這三個治療領域中創造機會。我的意思是,鑑於我們預計 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 的規模將會非常龐大,我們顯然專注於早期階段的機會,以便在下一個十年中期擁有穩健的成長動力。這也是為什麼我們利用 BD 進入肥胖症這個另一個成長領域,我們將在此基礎上,隨著我們發現其他差異化資產而不斷發展壯大。
We're clearly taking a close look at what's available out there. To the extent we see something that we feel is differentiated, we will pursue it. I would say to the extent we see a differentiated asset in any of our core areas, whether early or late stage, and I think sometimes there's a misconception that we're only interested in early stage.
我們顯然正在仔細研究市面上現有的產品和服務。只要我們發現有特色的東西,我們就會去追求它。我想說的是,只要我們在任何核心領域看到差異化資產,無論是早期階段還是後期階段,我都會考慮投資。我認為有時人們會誤以為我們只對早期階段感興趣。
We are willing to invest in late-stage assets. We certainly have the financial wherewithal. Strategically for the company, it's really about positioning the pipeline to deliver that growth in the next decade because we have a clear line of sight to growth drivers for this decade.
我們願意投資後期階段的資產。我們當然有足夠的財力。從公司策略角度來看,這實際上關乎如何佈局產品線,以在未來十年實現成長,因為我們已經清楚地看到了這十年的成長驅動因素。
Again, given our strong growth outlook and no LOEs this decade, we have plenty of firepower to pursue both early and late-stage opportunities. We're not limited to early stage, and we're focused on our core areas: Immunology, Neuroscience, Oncology, and building out obesity.
再次強調,鑑於我們強勁的成長前景以及本十年內沒有債務重組,我們有足夠的實力去把握早期和後期階段的投資機會。我們並不局限於早期階段,我們專注於我們的核心領域:免疫學、神經科學、腫瘤學和肥胖症治療。
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Terence, it's Roopal. I'll talk about HS expectations. So first of all, with Rinvoq, we're excited about this particular study and indication, especially as we look across previous indications.
特倫斯,我是魯帕爾。我將談談高中生的期望。首先,對於 Rinvoq,我們對這項特定的研究和適應症感到興奮,尤其是在回顧其先前的適應症之後。
So for example, if you look at Crohn's disease and recently alopecia areata, Rinvoq really overperforms relative to any other JAK inhibitor in the class, along with any other biologic if we were to take a look there. And that's why this study is going to be very important to build on the data that we've generated so far with Rinvoq.
例如,如果你觀察克羅恩病和最近的斑禿,Rinvoq 相對於同類任何其他 JAK 抑制劑以及任何其他生物製劑,都表現出色。因此,這項研究對於鞏固我們目前使用 Rinvoq 產生的數據至關重要。
Now, I will say this will be in a treatment failure population because that's where we believe the JAK inhibitor class will be used in HS. The dermatologists will already have familiarity with it when they've already used it for atopic dermatitis and soon alopecia areata and vitiligo. So maybe the efficacy won't be as sky-high as we would see in a naive population, but we think it can be very meaningful because patients tend to cycle off of these assets as they become available.
現在,我要說的是,這將在治療失敗的人群中使用,因為我們認為 JAK 抑制劑類藥物將用於 HS 的治療。皮膚科醫生已經對這種藥物有所了解,因為他們已經用它治療過異位性皮膚炎,很快還會用它來治療斑禿和白斑症。因此,療效或許不會像在未接受過治療的族群中那麼顯著,但我們認為這可能非常有意義,因為隨著這些藥物的出現,患者往往會停止使用這些藥物。
Now, with Lutikizumab, that one is a different mechanism. It's IL-1 beta. Beta in particular, it's very highly expressed in tissues of patients with hidradenitis suppurativa. That one will be studied in a naive population and an experienced population.
但是,Lutikizumab 的作用機制不同。它是IL-1β。特別是β亞基,在化膿性汗腺炎患者的組織中表現非常高。我們將分別在未受教育的人群和有經驗的人群中進行研究。
So far in Phase 2, we've seen amongst the highest efficacy been reported. Hopefully, in Phase 3, we'll see something similar. You can also follow the positioning of these two future medicines in this space, similar to what Jeff was describing previously in IBD.
到目前為止,在第二階段,我們已經看到了最高的療效之一。希望在第三階段,我們能看到類似的情況。您也可以關注這兩種未來藥物在這個領域的定位,類似於 Jeff 先前在 IBD 中描述的情況。
We'll have a lead asset in the naive setting. This would be Lutikizumab. It has also shown very strong safety profile, high efficacy in Phase 2, and then one for those patients that are not finding relief with current biologics or even Lutikizumab. So our sales teams and medical teams will have both of these to talk about in a similar concept that we have now demonstrated with IBD quite successfully.
在最簡單的環境下,我們將擁有一個主要資產。這應該是 Lutikizumab。它也展現出非常強的安全性,在第 2 期臨床試驗中療效顯著,適用於目前生物製劑甚至 Lutikizumab 都無法緩解症狀的患者。因此,我們的銷售團隊和醫療團隊將圍繞這兩個主題展開討論,我們現在已經成功地用 IBD 證明了這一點。
Operator
Operator
Asad Haider, Goldman Sachs.
阿薩德·海德爾,高盛集團。
Asad Haider - Analyst
Asad Haider - Analyst
Maybe first for Roopal. You talked about this a little bit already, but maybe if you could expand upon how you see the oncology portfolio evolving from here with respect to novel-novel combos. You've got this new externally sourced PD-1/VEGF bispecific that you just brought in alongside your existing ADC assets. Do you see the portfolio as appropriately positioned now from that perspective, and are there other gaps that you see with respect to where the science is evolving?
或許對魯帕爾來說,這是第一個。您之前已經稍微談到過這一點,但如果您能詳細闡述一下您認為腫瘤產品組合在新型組合療法方面將如何發展,那就太好了。你們剛引進了一種新的外部來源的 PD-1/VEGF 雙特異性抗體,並將其與你們現有的 ADC 資產一起使用。從這個角度來看,您認為目前的投資組合定位是否合適?您認為在科學發展方面還有其他差距嗎?
And then if I could just also throw one in for Scott on the Aesthetics franchise. That's been in a protracted downturn based on macro headwinds. I know you've talked about efforts to revitalize growth, looking at TrenibotE approval later this year as a potential catalyst. Are you able to provide any quantitative framing on what you expect to see post-approval and launch, just recognizing that there's some investor debates about the commercial opportunity for that program?
然後,如果我還能再給 Scott 的美學系列節目提個建議就好了。受宏觀經濟逆風影響,經濟已持續低迷。我知道您曾談到為重振經濟成長所做的努力,並將今年稍後 TrenibotE 的獲批視為潛在的催化劑。您能否就獲批上市後您預期會看到的情況提供一些量化數據?我知道目前投資者對該項目的商業機會存在一些爭議。
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
It's Roopal. I'll start with Oncology. You heard us talk about Temab-A and 706 as examples and Temab-A, multiple tumor types. We get rapid efficacy, which is very important, and the strategy being maintaining that efficacy like a chemotherapy or better, but having a better tolerability profile.
是魯帕爾。我先從腫瘤科說起。你們都聽我們說過,Temab-A 和 706 就是很好的例子,Temab-A 可以治療多種腫瘤類型。我們獲得了快速的療效,這非常重要,我們的策略是保持這種療效,就像化療一樣甚至更好,但具有更好的耐受性。
For example, comparison to conventional chemo, we don't see the high rates of stomatitis, diarrhea, hair loss, which in fact you still see with certain ADCs, but we don't see that profile with our construct, with our linker technology, and our particular topa warhead, whether that's, again, c-Met or SEZ6, for example. So that's a starting point.
例如,與傳統化療相比,我們沒有看到口腔炎、腹瀉、脫髮的高發生率,而這些副作用實際上在某些抗體藥物偶聯物 (ADC) 中仍然存在,但當我們使用我們的構建體、連接子技術和我們特定的拓撲異構酶活性位點(例如 c-Met 或 SEZ6)時,並沒有看到這些副作用。所以,這只是一個起點。
And then the combinations become very important to help build on the durability of these assets and utilization over the long term, so the patient is able to benefit maximally. And we believe a PD-1/VEGF is a terrific combo partner. I mentioned colorectal and lung thus far, but as I stated, we're going to see Temab-A read out in head and neck and ovarian. That could be also potential areas of combination.
然後,組合療法對於增強這些資產的持久性和長期利用率至關重要,從而使患者能夠獲得最大益處。我們認為 PD-1/VEGF 是一個極佳的組合搭檔。我之前提到了結直腸癌和肺癌,但正如我所說,我們將會看到 Temab-A 在頭頸部和卵巢癌中的應用。這也可能成為潛在的合作領域。
The other key component of our oncology strategy is also having the ability to have a biomarker approach where physicians, patients are always seeking an individualized care regimen. We have seen examples, particularly in GEA, I would say, and other tumor types, that when you have slightly increased expression profiles, you see higher efficacy. Though that sets up an ability to differentiate our portfolio over the long term.
我們腫瘤治療策略的另一個關鍵組成部分是能夠採用生物標記方法,讓醫生和患者始終尋求個人化的治療方案。我們已經看到一些例子,尤其是在 GEA 和其他腫瘤類型中,當表達譜略微增加時,療效就會更高。儘管這為我們在長期內實現投資組合的差異化奠定了基礎。
Now, if there's examples where we don't need a biomarker approach, then we won't take it. 706 is a good example in small cell lung cancer. You asked maybe what's missing. We think a T-cell engager could be a very nice combination with 706, and we have brought one in-house.
如果有些病例不需要生物標記方法,我們就不會採用這種方法。 706 就是一個很好的例子,它屬於小細胞肺癌。你問的是或許缺了什麼。我們認為 T 細胞銜接器與 706 結合會非常好,我們已經引進了一台。
The other internal development programs and access we already have that we're working on that hopefully will get to the clinic soon is in KRAS. We are interested in lung, colorectal, pancreatic strong data in pancreatic with Temab-A already. And we feel in the future, having a selective KRAS, hopefully that avoids N/H-RAS, would allow for optimal combinations. So I would say very excited on the solid front.
我們正在努力開發的其他內部研發計畫和成果,希望能盡快應用於臨床,是 KRAS 基因。我們對肺癌、大腸癌、胰腺癌感興趣,尤其是在胰腺癌方面,Temab-A 已經提供了強有力的數據。我們認為,未來如果能選擇性地進行 KRAS 基因敲除,希望能夠避免 N/H-RAS 基因敲除,就能達到最佳的組合。所以,就目前的情況來看,我非常興奮。
And just to briefly touch on, Rob mentioned 969. We haven't talked much about that today. However, we're trying to get that data to ASCO, so I would look for that. That is taking our bispecific technology, similar construct than how we built Lutikizumab against IL-1 alpha/beta.
順便提一下,羅布提到了969。我們今天還沒怎麼談到這個。不過,我們正在努力將這些數據提交給 ASCO,所以我會去找找看。這是利用我們的雙特異性技術,其結構與我們建構針對 IL-1 α/β 的 Lutikizumab 類似。
But in prostate cancer, this would be against PSMA and STEAP. And then we take the warhead and linker technology from Temab-A and add that to 969. So the team is excited about the potential in prostate cancer, which is a very large tumor type, and I would say with still substantial unmet need. We described the heme side where we have next-generation BCMA, CD38, and GPRC5D assets moving rapidly into the clinic.
但在攝護腺癌中,這將與 PSMA 和 STEAP 相悖。然後,我們將 Temab-A 的彈頭和連接器技術添加到 969 中。因此,該團隊對前列腺癌的潛力感到興奮,前列腺癌是一種非常大的腫瘤類型,我認為仍然存在大量未滿足的需求。我們描述了血紅素方面的情況,其中下一代 BCMA、CD38 和 GPRC5D 資產正在迅速進入臨床階段。
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
It's Jeff. I'll address your Trenibot and the Botox question. I think what's important as we look into 2026, largely what we see is that the sales impact of the Trenibot will largely accrue really to Botox. I'll walk through that.
是傑夫。我會回答你關於Trenibot和Botox的問題。我認為,展望 2026 年,最重要的是,我們看到 Trenibot 的銷售影響將主要歸因於肉毒桿菌。我會一步步講解。
But given the timing of the launch and the fact that right now we have plans to train 12,000 core injectors, it's really going to not really appear until towards the end of the year, but it's going to gate heavily into 2027. So I'll give you some sense of how the dynamics will work.
但考慮到發佈時間以及我們目前計劃培訓 12,000 名核心注入人員,它實際上要到今年年底才會真正出現,而且到 2027 年將會受到很大限制。那我將向你簡單介紹一下其中的運作機制。
We believe when we look at the patient funnel that at peak, we could potentially up to double the inflow of patients that would basically start to move into the toxin market because there's still we look in the U.S., 55 million considerers that just haven't made that leap yet. So the first dynamic is the stimulation of the market that starts to gate in at the end of 2026 and certainly, we believe, heavily into 2027 and 2028.
我們認為,從患者轉化漏斗來看,在高峰期,流入毒素市場的患者數量可能會翻一番,因為在美國,仍有 5,500 萬潛在患者尚未邁出這一步。因此,第一個動態是市場刺激,這種刺激從 2026 年底開始逐漸減弱,我們相信,這種刺激肯定會持續到 2027 年和 2028 年。
The second thing that we see is that since it is a short-duration toxin, it only lasts for 2.5 to 3 weeks. The real commercial impact goes to your conversion rate, our key performance indicator of how fast we convert to full-strength Botox.
我們看到的第二點是,由於它是一種短效毒素,所以它只會持續 2.5 到 3 週。真正的商業影響體現在您的轉換率上,這是我們衡量客戶快速轉換為全效肉毒桿菌注射的關鍵績效指標。
The way that we think about that metric is right now, we have very high leading share in the U.S. in the low 60s%. We would anticipate that once patients start on Trenibot as they start to gate in over this time period, that we have a much higher conversion rate than our existing share. So it starts to build share as well.
我們對這項指標的看法是,目前我們在美國擁有非常高的領先市場份額,達到 60% 左右。我們預計,一旦患者開始服用 Trenibot,並在這段期間逐步接受治療,我們的轉換率將比我們目前的市場份額高出許多。所以它的市佔率也開始成長。
And so net-net, we're very excited about this innovation. We think it's going to operate to sort of increase inflow substantially over our plan, again, more in the 2027 and beyond standpoint as we get the training ramped up and also accrue to Botox share. So that's how we're looking at that market development over time.
總而言之,我們對這項創新感到非常興奮。我們認為,隨著培訓力度加大,肉毒桿菌市場份額的擴大,從 2027 年及以後來看,這將大幅增加我們的收入,超出我們的計劃。這就是我們看待該市場長期發展的方式。
Operator
Operator
Vamil Divan, Guggenheim Securities.
瓦米爾·迪萬,古根漢證券公司。
Vamil Divan - Equity Analyst
Vamil Divan - Equity Analyst
So maybe one I do have actually still on the Botox topic and then one other one. On Botox, we were sort of surprised to see that one selected for the Medicare price reductions in 2028. I'm wondering first if that was a surprise to you as well or you were sort of expecting that.
所以,我可能還有一篇關於肉毒桿菌注射的文章,然後還有一篇。看到肉毒桿菌注射劑被選中參與 2028 年的 Medicare 價格降低計劃,我們感到有些驚訝。我首先想知道,這件事對你來說是否也感到意外,還是你早有預料。
And then what that might mean for pricing on the cosmetic side because I think it's always been tied to therapeutic and cosmetic pricing. So if there's reductions for Medicare on the therapeutic side, do you have to sort of carry that over to cosmetics or do you maybe have more flexibility in some way in the future?
那麼,這對於化妝品方面的定價可能意味著什麼呢?因為我認為化妝品定價一直與治療和美容定價聯繫在一起。如果醫療保險在治療方面有所削減,那麼是否必須將這種削減也應用到美容方面,還是說未來在某些方面會有更大的靈活性?
And then my second question was back on the Immunology franchise. And I caught some of what you said around 1Q pricing dynamics, but maybe you can just share your thinking around pricing overall in that market first, kind of within Skyrizi and Rinvoq for this year and maybe over the next couple of years, just how things evolve from a pricing perspective.
然後我的第二個問題又回到了免疫學領域。我聽到了您對第一季定價動態的一些看法,但也許您可以先分享一下您對該市場整體定價的看法,特別是 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 今年以及未來幾年的定價策略,以及從定價角度來看,市場將如何發展。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Vamil. It's Rob. Jeff and I will tag team your first question here. So as it relates to Botox being selected for Medicare negotiation, we're obviously disappointed that it was selected given that it's a plasma-derived product and should have been excluded.
謝謝你,瓦米爾。是羅布。傑夫和我將共同回答你的第一個問題。因此,就肉毒桿菌被選入健保談判範圍而言,我們顯然感到失望,因為它是一種血漿衍生產品,本應被排除在外。
That said, we did plan conservatively that it could be selected based on CMS spend, so its selection does not impact our long-term growth guidance at all.
也就是說,我們保守地計劃根據 CMS 支出情況來選擇它,因此它的選擇完全不會影響我們的長期成長預期。
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Also in terms of the pricing separation, we're comfortable with how we understand that effectuation may ultimately take place if and when it does happen in 2028. Certainly, we did see that when the announcement was made, there were comments around Botox Cosmetic, but that's just more of a formulaic dynamic with the way the government looks at NDCs.
至於價格分離方面,我們對最終可能在 2028 年實現的這種效果的理解感到滿意。當然,我們確實看到,在宣布這一消息時,有人對肉毒桿菌美容產品發表了評論,但這只是政府看待國家藥品代碼時的一種慣常做法。
But it's quite clear that there's a cash-pay component. So we don't see a large or meaningful interaction between the two, even if we do see the negotiation take place in 2028.
但很顯然,其中包含現金支付部分。因此,即使談判在 2028 年舉行,我們也看不到兩者之間有任何大規模或有意義的互動。
Scott Reents - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Scott Reents - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer
Sure. This is Scott. I'll address your question on pricing for Skyrizi and Rinvoq. So we've talked about and we continue to expect low single-digit pricing headwinds for both those products, both in 2026 and over the next few years as well. That's what we've seen.
當然。這是斯科特。我會回答您關於 Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq 定價的問題。因此,我們已經討論過,我們繼續預計,這兩種產品在 2026 年以及未來幾年都將面臨個位數的價格逆風。這就是我們所看到的。
I would tell you that 2025 was unique. We had some pricing tailwinds in 2025. And so in the end, for Skyrizi, we were roughly flat for pricing on the year for Skyrizi. We had some positive price in the first half of the year, and it was negative price in the back half of the year.
我會告訴你,2025年是獨一無二的。2025年我們迎來了一些價格利多因素。因此,最終 Skyrizi 的價格在這一年中基本上持平。今年上半年股價為正,下半年股價為負值。
And Rinvoq was slightly down on a year-over-year basis for pricing in 2025 as well, pricing favorability in the first half and pricing unfavorability in the second half, netting to slightly down. That does come into play when we look at, for instance, the first quarter of Rinvoq. You'll see that pricing headwind, frankly, on high single digit as an unfavorable comparison that Rinvoq is facing on a prior year basis.
Rinvoq 2025 年的定價也較去年同期略有下降,上半年定價有利,下半年定價不利,淨值略有下降。例如,當我們查看 Rinvoq 的第一季時,這一點就體現出來了。坦白說,你會發現價格方面的不利因素,Rinvoq 面臨的價格逆風幅度高達個位數,與前一年相比非常不利。
So those dynamics will play, but you're going to see low single-digit pricing in 2026 for both products and then going forward as well as our anticipation.
所以這些因素都會起作用,但根據我們的預期,到 2026 年,這兩款產品的價格都將降至個位數低位,而且這種情況還會持續下去。
Operator
Operator
Steve Scala, TD Cowen.
史蒂夫·斯卡拉,TD Cowen。
Steve Scala - Analyst
Steve Scala - Analyst
It is clear that you are confident in Skyrizi and IBD, but the competition is growing very rapidly, and it looks like it's inevitable it will make an important impact on Skyrizi. So what can be done to neutralize these gains at this juncture?
顯然您對 Skyrizi 和 IBD 充滿信心,但競爭發展非常迅速,而且似乎不可避免地會對 Skyrizi 產生重大影響。那麼,在當前情勢下,可以採取哪些措施來抵銷這些收益呢?
And secondly, in the drug pricing deal AbbVie signed with President Trump, the release noted exemption from tariffs and future pricing mandates. Can you elaborate on what exemption from future pricing mandates constitutes beyond avoidance of demonstration projects and how important is avoidance of demonstration projects?
其次,艾伯維與川普總統簽署的藥品定價協議中指出,該協議豁免了關稅和未來的定價規定。您能否詳細說明,除了避免示範項目之外,未來定價強制規定的豁免還包含哪些內容,以及避免示範項目有多重要?
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. Hi, Steve. It's Jeff. Just maybe a few comments. I've outlined how stable our capture rates are. Look, it is a competitive market. There have been changes in terms of frontline and later lines, but we're very, very confident that we're going to see very significant growth and leadership with Skyrizi over IBD as well as the Rinvoq dynamic we discussed.
是的。嗨,史蒂夫。是傑夫。或許可以提幾句。我已經概述了我們的捕獲率有多穩定。你看,這是一個競爭激烈的市場。一線和後線人員都發生了一些變化,但我們非常有信心,Skyrizi 將在 IBD 領域取得非常顯著的成長和領導地位,正如我們討論過的 Rinvoq 動態一樣。
Now, what are some things that we can think about and are thinking about in terms of continuing the momentum and even increasing our momentum? First, this is not a zero-sum game with two IL-23s. There's a lot of other products in the marketplace.
那麼,為了保持甚至增強這種勢頭,我們可以思考哪些事情,以及我們正在思考哪些事情?首先,這不是兩架 IL-23 之間的零和遊戲。市場上還有很多其他產品。
And I think that we've highlighted before, we will shortly see a readout over a head-to-head study with Entyvio. Entyvio is the leading frontline agent or close to it with Skyrizi in UC, and it does pretty well in Crohn's as well. So with the head-to-head data for Skyrizi versus Entyvio, we see a significant opportunity to continue the momentum beyond just the IL-23 growth and the competition that we've been talking about.
而且我認為我們之前已經強調過,我們很快就會看到與 Entyvio 的直接對比研究結果。Entyvio 是潰瘍性結腸炎的一線領先藥物,或者與 Skyrizi 並駕齊驅,在克羅恩病方面也表現相當不錯。因此,透過 Skyrizi 與 Entyvio 的直接比較數據,我們看到了一個重大的機會,可以繼續保持這種勢頭,而不僅限於 IL-23 的成長和我們一直在談論的競爭。
The other dynamic that we see there is it's a modest, I would say, market value driver. It gets a lot of play over this idea of a subq induction versus an IV induction. And as Roopal highlighted in his prepared remarks, we will close that gap, we believe, sometime in early 2027 based on the readout that we're anticipating. So we have many strategies that we continue to pursue to make sure that we can maintain and sustain our Skyrizi leadership over time.
我們看到的另一個動態是,我認為,它對市場價值的影響並不顯著。關於皮下注射與靜脈注射的比較,人們進行了許多討論。正如魯帕爾在事先準備好的演講稿中所強調的那樣,根據我們預期的結果,我們相信,我們將在 2027 年初的某個時候彌合這一差距。因此,我們制定了許多策略,並將繼續推行這些策略,以確保我們能夠長期保持 Skyrizi 的領先地位。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Steve, this is Rob. We're pleased that we're able to reach an agreement with the Trump administration that again, balances affordability and access and protects the U.S. innovation ecosystem going forward. And so we're pleased with where that's landed as you noted, similar to many of our peers who did also execute agreements.
史蒂夫,我是羅伯。我們很高興能夠與川普政府達成協議,該協議再次平衡了價格可負擔性和可及性,並保護了美國創新生態系統的未來發展。正如您所指出的,我們對最終的結果感到滿意,這與我們許多也簽署了協議的同行的情況類似。
We are exempt during the term from tariffs as well as the pricing mandates inclusive of demonstration projects. So your understanding is correct.
在協議有效期限內,我們免於繳納關稅以及遵守定價規定,包括示範項目。所以你的理解是正確的。
Operator
Operator
Mohit Bansal, Wells Fargo.
莫希特·班薩爾,富國銀行。
Mohit Bansal - Analyst
Mohit Bansal - Analyst
Maybe a question on the migraine primary care expansion here. So I mean, Pfizer yesterday talked about that they are generating about 83% share in the new prescribers in the migraine market. I'm assuming this is all primary care, but again, would you talk a little bit about how your expansion strategy into primary care is going? And then are you seeing any increased competition there from the competition in the migraine market?
這裡或許可以問一個關於偏頭痛初級保健擴展的問題。我的意思是,輝瑞公司昨天談到,他們在偏頭痛市場的新處方醫生中佔據了約 83% 的份額。我假設這都是基層醫療服務,但您能否再談談您在基層醫療領域的擴張策略進展如何?那麼,您是否看到來自偏頭痛市場的競爭加劇了?
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Thanks for the question. Now, as Rob mentioned in one of his responses, we are extremely pleased with our migraine business. I mean, certainly, we have a very large Botox business. It's the only toxin approved in chronic migraine. And just to be very, very clear, we have the absolute leading brand with Ubrelvy in acute migraine, okay? And that lead is expanding.
謝謝你的提問。正如羅佈在回覆中提到的那樣,我們對我們的偏頭痛業務非常滿意。我的意思是,當然,我們的肉毒桿菌注射業務規模非常大。它是唯一獲準用於治療慢性偏頭痛的毒素。非常非常明確地說,我們在急性偏頭痛領域擁有絕對領先的品牌 Ubrelvy,好嗎?而且領先優勢還在擴大。
We also have recently become the number one branded drug in the episodic oral CGRP for prevention with Qulipta. So we have an extremely strong position. It's very difficult for us to triangulate against what the competitor has said, but you can just look at our reported sales when you add up our total oral CGRP sales, which is also rapidly globalizing. So we see, if anything, that we're going to continue to stretch our lead in that area.
我們最近也憑藉 Qulipta 成為用於預防發作性口服 CGRP 的排名第一的品牌藥物。因此,我們擁有極為強大的優勢。我們很難反駁競爭對手的說法,但你可以看看我們公佈的銷售額,把我們口服 CGRP 的總銷售額加起來,而我們的口服 CGRP 銷售額也在迅速全球化。所以我們看到,我們在這個領域的領先優勢將會繼續擴大。
Now, we also have a considerable primary care presence right now with both Ubrelvy and Qulipta, where we call on essentially over 70,000 or 80,000 physicians, most of which are primary care physicians. We also cover headache specialists and neurologists, of course. So we have very significant reach, and we have also a very significant lead in this category.
目前,我們透過 Ubrelvy 和 Qulipta 在初級保健領域也擁有相當大的影響力,我們與超過 7 萬或 8 萬名醫生合作,其中大部分是初級保健醫生。我們當然也涵蓋頭痛專科醫生和神經科醫生。因此,我們的覆蓋範圍非常廣,而且在這個領域也擁有非常大的領先優勢。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
And this is Rob. I'll just add, as we saw the comments as well, it's hard for us to reconcile when you just compare the revenue in 2025 for Qulipta and Ubrelvy combined. It's almost $1 billion dollars higher than the competitor. So it's difficult for us to reconcile the numbers that were being quoted.
這位是羅布。我還要補充一點,正如我們也看到了評論的那樣,如果只比較 Qulipta 和 Ubrelvy 在 2025 年的收入總和,我們很難得出一致的結論。比競爭對手高出近10億美元。因此,我們很難核實所引用的數字。
When I look at the performance of the oral migraine franchise and just the continuous share gains, we were talking about over a pointevery year and now delivering almost $3 billion dollars this year, which was, again, the peak that we had previously communicated. Obviously, both brands have a long runway. And so, as I mentioned before, as we look at these brands, we would expect them to exceed $5 billion dollars now.
當我審視口服偏頭痛產品線的業績以及其持續的市場份額增長時,我們之前討論的是每年增長超過 1 個百分點,而今年已經實現了近 30 億美元的收入,這再次達到了我們之前所預期的峰值。顯然,這兩個品牌都有很長的發展道路。因此,正如我之前提到的,當我們審視這些品牌時,我們預計它們的價值現在將超過 50 億美元。
So just tremendous momentum. The profile of both drugs is very powerful, and the commercial execution has been very strong.
所以勢頭非常強勁。這兩種藥物的療效都非常顯著,而且商業化程度也很高。
Operator
Operator
David Amsellem, Piper Sandler.
大衛·阿姆塞勒姆,派珀·桑德勒。
David Amsellem - Senior Research Analyst
David Amsellem - Senior Research Analyst
So on Rinvoq and Vitiligo, can you talk about the sizing of that opportunity given the dearth of systemic options? And also, do you perceive a competitive threat from IL-15 directed therapies in Vitiligo down the road? That's number one.
那麼,關於 Rinvoq 和白斑症,鑑於目前缺乏系統性治療方案,您能否談談這一市場機會的規模?另外,您是否認為未來白斑領域中,IL-15標靶療法會構成競爭威脅?這是第一點。
And then secondly, as you talk about potential replacements for Vraylar following its LOE, does that also contemplate a long-acting injectable form of cariprazine as one of those replacements?
其次,您談到Vraylar在有效期限屆滿後的潛在替代品時,是否也考慮過長效注射型卡利拉嗪作為替代品之一?
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. Hi. It's Jeff. I'll take the Vitiligo question. So yeah, we've highlighted that if you look at our next generation of or next wave of Rinvoq approvals, that we anticipate roughly $2 billion or more in additional peak-year sales. And those are going to start to gate out here relatively soon. We're right on track with GCA, which is moving quite well. It's the smallest of the bunch. It's difficult to say.
是的。你好。是傑夫。我來回答白癜風的問題。是的,我們已經強調,如果你看看我們下一代或下一波 Rinvoq 的審批情況,我們預計高峰年銷售額將增加約 20 億美元或更多。而且這些很快就會在這裡開始關閉。我們與GCA的進展非常順利,一切都在按計劃進行。它是其中最小的。很難說。
When we look at Vitiligo, I mean, we've sized that opportunity roughly just above half a billion at peak. But again, we could surprise ourselves there. I mean, the data looks quite strong. And to your point, it is the only systemic agent. And so ultimately, where we end up in terms of that peak-year sales will also depend on the labeling that we get as we go through the process.
當我們審視白斑市場時,我的意思是,我們已經估算出,該市場在高峰期的規模大約略高於 5 億美元。但同樣,我們或許會在這方面帶給我們驚喜。我的意思是,數據看起來相當有力。正如你所指出的,它是唯一系統性因素。因此,最終,我們能否達到銷售高峰年,也將取決於我們在整個過程中獲得的標籤。
Certainly, we're reviewing quite a bit of disease state awareness that will start to gate in with AbbVie spending in the middle part of the year where we're going to basically highlight the fact that there is no systemic treatment for this disease that has tremendous psychosocial impact and is probably still underestimated in terms of what might happen. But again, we're still really roughly in that $2 billion dollar-plus range for all of those new indications and excited to bring Vitiligo to the market.
當然,我們正在審查相當多的疾病狀態認知,這將在年中開始與艾伯維的支出相結合,我們將重點強調這樣一個事實:目前還沒有針對這種疾病的系統性治療方法,這種疾病具有巨大的社會心理影響,而且就其可能造成的後果而言,可能仍然被低估了。但話說回來,所有這些新適應症的預期收益仍然大致在 20 億美元以上,我們很高興能將白斑症推向市場。
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
And David, it's Roopal. Maybe on the competitive side, we'll have to see this over time. I mean, there's growing familiarity with Rinvoq now in dermatology with atopic dermatitis, soon for HS, alopecia areata, and the efficacy is very strong.
大衛,我是魯帕爾。或許在競技方面,我們需要時間來觀察。我的意思是,現在皮膚科醫生越來越熟悉 Rinvoq,它可用於治療異位性皮膚炎,很快也可用於治療化膿性汗腺炎、斑禿,而且療效非常顯著。
And what we're also observing is in alopecia areata and Vitiligo seems to continue to increase over time. And the tolerability with our simple oral is also appreciated by physicians and patients. So if that were to enter, again, I think we still have the opportunity to compete based on the high efficacy that we've seen across other indications.
我們也觀察到,斑禿和白斑的發生率似乎隨著時間的推移而持續上升。我們這款簡單的口服藥物的耐受性也受到了醫生和患者的讚賞。所以,如果這種情況再次發生,我認為我們仍然有機會參與競爭,因為我們在其他適應症中已經看到了很高的療效。
Yeah. And maybe on the Vraylar LAI. Yes, we do have some partnerships in place. And then we're assessing, I would just say, not just Vraylar, but other assets in terms of long-acting injectables. We've seen good tolerability and high efficacy with Vraylar. So that one could be quite amenable to this type of strategy.
是的。或許在Vraylar LAI上也是如此。是的,我們確實有一些合作關係。然後,我們正在評估的,不僅是Vraylar,還有其他長效注射劑方面的資產。我們發現Vraylar具有良好的耐受性和較高的療效。所以,有些人可能很樂於接受這種策略。
Operator
Operator
Luisa Hector, Berenberg.
路易莎·赫克托,貝倫貝格。
Luisa Hector - Equity Analyst
Luisa Hector - Equity Analyst
I have just a couple. On Aesthetics, just to check, are there any regions where you are losing share in toxins or fillers? And is this franchise less profitable than when you acquired it? And maybe to touch on obesity, I don't know if Roopal can remind us what the profile is you're looking for in your amylin and how soon you might pivot into Phase 3. Could you launch on weight loss only without the longer CVOT trials?
我只有幾個。關於美容方面,請問您在哪些領域肉毒桿菌或填充劑的使用方面市場份額正在下降?這家特許經營店的獲利能力是否不如你剛接手時那麼強了?或許可以談談肥胖問題,我不知道 Roopal 能否提醒我們,你們在胰淀素中尋找的是什麼樣的特徵,以及你們多久可以進入第三階段。能否僅以減肥為目標,而不進行更長時間的心血管結局試驗?
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Jeff Stewart - Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer
Yeah. Hi, Luisa. I couldn't understand the full question, but there are some areas where we have had some share loss, I'd say, particularly in Brazil. Brazil has been the one area where we've seen some declines in share, particularly in the filler category.
是的。你好,路易莎。我沒能完全理解這個問題,但我想說,我們在某些領域確實失去了一些市場份額,尤其是在巴西。巴西是我們市場份額出現下滑的地區之一,尤其是在填充劑類別中。
And I'm glad you asked the question because we do have a geographic mix issue that has come in 2025 where Brazil and Latin America tend to grow, and we've lost a little bit of share, whereas we have much more stable or growing share in China and Asia. So hopefully, that answers your question.
我很高興你問了這個問題,因為我們確實面臨著地域構成問題,這個問題在 2025 年出現了,巴西和拉丁美洲的市場份額趨於增長,而我們在中國和亞洲的市場份額則更加穩定或不斷增長。希望這能解答你的疑問。
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
Robert Michael - Chairman of the Board & Chief Executive Officer
And maybe to put a little bit of perspective and just keep in mind that the U.S. and China is the vast majority of the Aesthetics business for us when Jeff talks about a market like Brazil, you're talking about less than $100 million dollars. So just to put in perspective that the extent we have lost some share there, it's a very small market for us.
或許我們應該從更宏觀的角度來看待這個問題,記住,美國和中國佔據了我們美容業務的絕大部分。當傑夫談到像巴西這樣的市場時,你指的是不到 1 億美元的市場規模。所以,為了讓大家更清楚地了解我們在那裡的市佔率損失有多大,要知道,對我們來說,那是一個非常小的市場。
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
And then on obesity, it's Roopal. The key for us there is going to be that tolerability profile along with weight. I think as the incretins readout within a few percentage points of each other, whether it's weekly or monthly, we still feel that there's going to be a substantial number of patients that are going to cycle off of those for a variety of reasons, including tolerability. So with the two Phase 1s that are underway now, us looking for dosing regimens and potentially even going out to monthly is going to be the key for us as we go forward into Phase 2 and Phase 3.
至於肥胖問題,那就是魯帕爾了。對我們來說,關鍵在於耐受性以及體重。我認為,儘管腸促胰素的讀數彼此相差只有幾個百分點,無論是每週還是每月,我們仍然認為會有相當多的患者因為各種原因(包括耐受性)而停止使用這些藥物。因此,隨著目前正在進行的兩個 1 期臨床試驗,我們尋找合適的給藥方案,甚至有可能實現每月給藥一次,這將是我們進入 2 期和 3 期臨床試驗的關鍵。
With regard to being able to pull in Phase 3, certainly, that would be regulatory discussions that we would have, especially if we see strong safety and efficacy profiles as the data emerge.
至於能否啟動 3 期臨床試驗,這當然需要與監管機構進行討論,尤其是在數據出現後,我們看到其具有良好的安全性和有效性。
Operator
Operator
Michael Yee, UBS.
Michael Yee,瑞銀集團。
Michael Yee - Analyst
Michael Yee - Analyst
In terms of the Crohn's disease Immunology platform program that's ongoing, and I think I see on ct.gov, and you've pointed out is critically important, can you just tell us a little bit about what you expect to get from that study? And is the goal to raise the bar in terms of efficacy? And that obviously is the key component of this to extend your leadership.
關於正在進行的克羅恩病免疫學平台項目,我認為我在 ct.gov 上看到了,而且您也指出該項目至關重要,您能否簡要地告訴我們您期望從這項研究中獲得什麼?目標是提高療效標準嗎?顯然,這是擴大你領導力的關鍵。
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Yeah. Hi. It's Roopal. So yes, the increasing efficacy would be important, the degree of which will be determined by the types of patients. So if we're studying naive patients, which there could be less and less as we've seen Skyrizi just have tremendous penetration in IBD in the front line, then our consideration is what can come after.
是的。你好。是魯帕爾。所以,提高療效確實很重要,其程度將取決於患者的類型。因此,如果我們研究的是初治患者(隨著 Skyrizi 在 IBD 一線治療中取得巨大成功,初治患者的數量可能會越來越少),那麼我們考慮的是後續治療方案。
So a key component of these IBD platform studies are also to study patients who have already received Skyrizi. So there could be a slightly different efficacy outcome there if you're looking at second and third lines. These are very important lines in IBD because they continue to expand as patients roll off of anti-TNFs. And we've actually seen less and less clinicians turning to anti-TNFs. So this is where 23s are becoming very important, as Jeff has highlighted, in particular Skyrizi.
因此,這些 IBD 平台研究的關鍵組成部分也是研究已經接受 Skyrizi 治療的患者。因此,如果您考慮的是二線和三線治療,療效結果可能會略有不同。這些在發炎性腸道疾病中非常重要,因為隨著患者停止使用抗 TNF 藥物,這些藥物的療效會不斷提高。事實上,我們看到越來越少的臨床醫生開始使用抗TNF藥物。所以,正如 Jeff 所強調的那樣,23 號球員,尤其是 Skyrizi,在這裡變得非常重要。
And when we look at combinations with Skyrizi, can we treat those patients as well? The tolerability also will be very important. We're doing our best to avoid boxed warnings, if at all possible, which would exist if we combined with an anti-TNF, which is not our strategy because there's less and less utilization. We do have an alpha-4 beta-7. We've talked about LUDI. We also have TL1A, which can also be a good combination.
那麼,當我們考慮將 Skyrizi 與某些藥物合併使用時,我們是否也能治療這些患者呢?耐受性也非常重要。我們正在盡最大努力避免出現黑框警告,如果與抗 TNF 藥物聯合使用,就會出現黑框警告,但這並非我們的策略,因為抗 TNF 藥物的使用越來越少。我們確實有 alpha-4 beta-7。我們已經討論過 LUDI。我們還有 TL1A,它也是一個不錯的組合。
The other core component of this strategy is also in parallel as these data read out is to look at our ability to co-formulate and deliver these together in a patient-friendly way. So many things coming together, and we're excited to hopefully share some data this year.
該策略的另一個核心組成部分也在同步進行,即在讀取這些數據的同時,研究我們以對患者友好的方式共同製定和提供這些方案的能力。很多因素匯聚在一起,我們希望今年能與大家分享一些數據。
Operator
Operator
Evan Seigerman, BMO Capital Markets.
Evan Seigerman,BMO資本市場。
Malcolm Hoffman - Analyst
Malcolm Hoffman - Analyst
This is Malcolm Hoffman on for Evan. Thanks for taking our question. So I wanted to touch on 932, which I think has been addressed or at least mentioned a couple of times throughout the call. But I know you have the Phase 2 readout later this year in Bipolar as a follow-on to Vraylar. Can you maybe give us some framing on how you're thinking this could compare to Vraylar given the heavier targeting of D3 versus D2?
這裡是馬爾科姆·霍夫曼,他正在為艾文做報道。感謝您回答我們的問題。所以我想談談 932,我認為在通話過程中已經討論過或至少提到過幾次了。但我知道,作為 Vraylar 的後續研究,你們將在今年稍後公佈雙相情感障礙的 2 期臨床試驗結果。鑑於D3比D2的目標鎖定更嚴格,您能否簡要說明一下您認為它與Vraylar相比會有哪些不同之處?
And then just a second follow-up there. I see you're looking to pursue drug in anxiety as well. Is there any expectation to expand into areas like addiction, again, given the heavier D3 reliance here?
然後,我又跟進了一次。我看你似乎也想用藥物治療焦慮症。鑑於目前對 D3 的依賴程度較高,是否有可能再次拓展到成癮等領域?
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Roopal Thakkar - Executive Vice President, Research & Development and Chief Scientific Officer
Thanks. It's Roopal. I'll take that. So yes, later this year, we'll see the data 932. Currently, I'll talk about generalized anxiety disorder. We do not have that approved for Vraylar, though we have seen effect in patients who have some anxiety and lowering of those scores.
謝謝。是魯帕爾。我接受。所以,是的,今年晚些時候,我們將看到 932 號數據。今天,我將談談廣泛性焦慮症。雖然我們尚未批准 Vraylar 使用該藥物,但我們已經看到它對一些焦慮症患者有效,並降低了他們的焦慮評分。
And that's why I think we see such strong uptake of Vraylar and why it was important to study a next-generational version. Hopefully, with less D2, we anticipate potentially less movement disorder. So that's one thing that we would be looking for, is that safety and tolerability profile while maintaining efficacy. So I think that'll be important.
這就是為什麼我認為 Vraylar 如此受歡迎,以及為什麼研究下一代版本如此重要的原因。希望D2減少後,運動障礙的發生率也能降低。所以,我們關注的一點是,在保持療效的同時,也要確保安全性和耐受性。所以我認為這很重要。
We'll also see a breakdown between Bipolar 1 and Bipolar 2. We have observed that Vraylar has worked better on the Bipolar 1 side. That could be a potential outcome, but that's data that we're going to look at. Also, that'll be very important.
我們也會看到雙極性情感障礙 1 型和雙相情感障礙 2 型之間的差異。我們觀察到 Vraylar 在雙極 1 型側表現較好。這可能是一種潛在結果,但我們需要進一步分析數據。而且,這一點也非常重要。
And in terms of other indications, that could be what you mentioned could be something else that we would look at. And as we step back and consider all of psychiatry, we'll have two studies in Phase 2 with a kappa opioid receptor antagonist, which we believe has strong potency. I mentioned Bretisilocin in depression, but you could imagine there could be indication expansion for that one as well.
至於其他跡象,您提到的那一點,可能是我們需要關注的其他方面。當我們退後一步,從整個精神病學的角度來看,我們將有兩項針對 kappa 鴉片受體拮抗劑的 2 期研究,我們相信這種拮抗劑具有很強的效力。我之前提到 Bretisilocin 用於治療憂鬱症,但你可以想像,它的適應症也可能擴大。
And as we make good progress with Emraclidine and those doses being able to go higher, again, having potential there in psychosis of neurodegeneration as well as schizophrenia that we've mentioned. So along with 932, there's a whole portfolio there. And I'll mention we continue to partner with Gedeon Richter. And there's even a more D3-leaning asset that is within preclinical tox that could also see a first-in-human within the next year or 18 months.
隨著我們在 Emraclidine 的治療方面取得良好進展,劑量能夠進一步提高,這再次表明它在治療我們提到的神經退化性精神病和精神分裂症方面具有潛力。所以,除了 932 之外,還有一整個投資組合。我還要提一下,我們繼續與吉瑞製藥公司保持合作關係。甚至還有一種更偏向 D3 的資產,目前處於臨床前毒性研究階段,也可能在未來一年或 18 個月內進行首次人體試驗。
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Liz Shea - Senior Vice President, Investor Relations
Thanks, everyone, and that concludes today's conference call. If you'd like to listen to a replay of the call, please visit our website at investors.abbvie.com. Thanks again for joining us.
謝謝大家,今天的電話會議到此結束。如果您想收聽電話會議錄音,請造訪我們的網站 investors.abbvie.com。再次感謝您的參與。
Operator
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at this time.
今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。