美國航空 (AAL) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

  1. 摘要
    • Q4 2025 調整後 EPS 為 $0.16,全年調整後 EPS 為 $0.36,低於原先指引,主因為政府停擺影響營收約 $3.25 億美元
    • 2026 Q1 指引:預計營收 YoY 成長 7-10%,但受冬季風暴 Fern 影響,預估 Q1 調整後每股虧損 $0.10-$0.50;全年調整後 EPS 指引為 $1.70-$2.70
    • 1 月訂票量創歷史新高,2026 年初訂票動能強勁,管理層認為全年指引具保守性,若現有動能持續,全年有望達高標
  2. 成長動能 & 風險
    • 成長動能:
      • 高價艙等需求強勁,Q4 premium unit revenue YoY 超越主艙 7 個百分點,預期 2026 年 premium 動能續強
      • AAdvantage 會員數年增 7%,聯名卡消費年增 8%,2026 年與 Citi 獨家合作有望推升卡量與消費
      • 國際艙隊擴張,2026 年將有 10 架 A321 XLR 交付、11 架 787-9 全數投入營運,持續提升 premium 座位供給
      • 營運效率提升,2026 年預計再節省 $2.5 億美元營運成本,累計三年達 $10 億美元
    • 風險:
      • 冬季風暴 Fern 造成史上最大營運中斷,Q1 估計營收損失 $1.5-2 億美元,且影響成本結構
      • 拉美區域 unit revenue 持續承壓,預期 2026 上半年仍為逆風
      • 政府相關旅客流量受停擺影響大幅下滑,短期內復甦仍具不確定性
  3. 核心 KPI / 事業群
    • Q4 premium unit revenue YoY +7%,持續優於主艙
    • AAdvantage 會員年增 7%,芝加哥地區增幅近 20%
    • 聯名信用卡消費年增 8%
    • 國際艙隊規模:2025 年底 139 架,預計 2030 年達 200 架
    • Q1 預計運能 YoY +3%~5%(含 Fern 影響約 1.5 個百分點)
  4. 財務預測
    • 2026 Q1 營收 YoY +7%~10%,全年運能成長預期為 mid-single digit(約 5%)
    • 2026 Q1 CASM-ex fuel 預計 YoY +3%~5%,全年預期低單位數成長
    • 2026 年 CapEx 預估 $40~45 億美元,全年預計交付 55 架新機
  5. 法人 Q&A
    • Q: 請談談各 hub 的獲利性與 2026 年成長潛力,特別是芝加哥。
      A: 芝加哥具策略意義,預計今年夏天恢復至 500-550 班次,客戶組合、忠誠度、聯名卡皆年增 20%,預期獲利性將回到 hub 平均水準。
    • Q: 2026 年成本曲線如何?Q1 是否為全年高點?
      A: 若全年運能為 mid-single digit,CASM 將為低單位數成長。Q1 因 Fern 影響較高,全年會依需求彈性調整運能。
    • Q: premium 座位與 lie-flat 成長對 2026 年營收有何貢獻?
      A: premium RASM Q4 優於主艙 7 個百分點,2026 年持續交付新機與改裝,premium mix 會進一步提升,帶動營收結構優化。
    • Q: 債務降至 $350 億美元以下後,何時會考慮股東回饋?
      A: 優先順序仍為投資客戶、員工與業務,產生的自由現金流會繼續強化資產負債表,需達到 3x 淨債務/EBITDA 與 BB flat 信評目標後,才會考慮股東回饋。
    • Q: 全年指引是否保守?若訂票動能持續,是否有上修空間?
      A: 目前指引未完全反映年初強勁訂票,若動能持續,全年有望達高標甚至超越。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you for standing by and welcome to American Airlines Group's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions)

    感謝您的耐心等待,歡迎參加美國航空集團2025年第四季及全年業績電話會議。(操作說明)

  • I would now like to hand the call over to Neil Russell, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

    現在我將把電話交給投資人關係副總裁尼爾羅素。請繼續。

  • Neil Russell - Vice President, Investor Relations

    Neil Russell - Vice President, Investor Relations

  • Thanks, Latif, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the American Airlines Group earnings conference call. On the call with prepared remarks, we have our CEO, Robert Isom and our CFO, Devon May. In addition, we have a number of senior executives in the room this morning for the Q&A session.

    謝謝你,拉蒂夫,大家早安。歡迎參加美國航空集團財報電話會議。在這次事先準備好發言稿的電話會議上,我們有執行長羅伯特·伊索姆和財務長德文·梅。此外,今天上午我們也邀請了幾位高階主管參加問答環節。

  • After our prepared remarks, we will open the call for analyst questions, followed by questions from the media. (Event Instructions)

    在我們發表完準備好的演講後,我們將開放分析師提問環節,接著開放媒體提問環節。(活動須知)

  • Before we begin, please note that today's call contains forward-looking statements, including statements concerning future events, costs, forecasts of capacity, and fleet plans. These statements represent our predictions and expectations of future events, but numerous risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to differ from those projected.

    在開始之前,請注意,今天的電話會議包含前瞻性陳述,包括有關未來事件、成本、產能預測和機隊計劃的陳述。這些陳述代表了我們對未來事件的預測和預期,但許多風險和不確定因素可能導致實際結果與預測結果不同。

  • Information about some of these risks and uncertainties can be found in our earnings press release that was issued earlier this morning, Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q.

    有關其中一些風險和不確定性的信息可以在我們今天早上發布的盈利新聞稿、截至 2024 年 12 月 31 日的 10-K 表格以及隨後的 10-Q 表格季度報告中找到。

  • Unless otherwise specified, all references to earnings per share are on an adjusted and diluted basis. Additionally, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures which exclude the impact of unusual items. A reconciliation of those numbers to the GAAP financial measures is included in the earnings press release and investor presentation, each of which can be found in the Investor Relations section of our website.

    除非另有說明,所有提及的每股收益均為經調整和稀釋後的收益。此外,我們也將討論一些不包含異常項目影響的非GAAP財務指標。這些數據與 GAAP 財務指標的核對錶包含在獲利新聞稿和投資者簡報中,這兩份文件都可以在我們網站的投資者關係部分找到。

  • A webcast of this call will also be archived on our website. The information we are giving you on the call this morning is as of today's date, and we undertake no obligation to update the information subsequently.

    本次電話會議的網路直播也將存檔於我們的網站上。今天早上電話會議上我們提供給您的資訊截至今日,我們不承擔後續更新資訊的義務。

  • Thank you for your interest in American and for joining us this morning. With that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Robert Isom.

    感謝您對美國的關注,也感謝您今天早上收看我們的節目。接下來,我將把電話交給我們的執行長羅伯特·伊索姆。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Good morning, everyone. As we close out 2025, I'm extremely proud of the hard work and perseverance of the American Airlines team throughout the fourth quarter and the full year. Thank you to each of you. Your commitment to excellence is what makes American the premium global airline our customers trust. Thank you for navigating 2025 with resilience and for taking care of our customers throughout the holiday period.

    各位早安。2025 年即將結束,我為美國航空團隊在第四季和全年的辛勤工作和堅持不懈感到無比自豪。謝謝各位。正是你們對卓越的不懈追求,才使美國航空成為客戶信賴的全球頂級航空公司。感謝您以堅韌不拔的精神迎接2025年的到來,並在整個假期期間悉心照顧我們的客戶。

  • And I especially want to recognize the tremendous efforts of our team this past weekend and this week as we work through Winter Storm Fern, ensuring our customers and team members remain safe during this challenging weather event. The impact of the storm is as significant as we've ever seen at American.

    我特別要感謝我們的團隊在上週末和本週為應對冬季風暴「蕨類植物」所付出的巨大努力,確保我們的客戶和團隊成員在這場嚴峻的天氣事件中保持安全。這場風暴對美國航空的影響之大,是我們前所未見的。

  • Ice and freezing rain have significantly reduced operations, especially at DFW and Charlotte, our largest hubs for multiple days. Over the past four days, we've had to cancel more than 9,000 flights, making this the largest weather-related operational disruption in our history. We expect at least two more days of elevated cancellations before returning to normal operations later this week.

    冰凍和凍雨嚴重影響了運營,尤其是在我們最大的樞紐機場達拉斯沃斯堡國際機場和夏洛特機場,這種情況持續了好幾天。在過去四天裡,我們不得不取消超過 9000 個航班,這是我們歷史上因天氣原因造成的最大營運中斷。我們預計至少在未來兩天內航班取消率還會上升,之後本週稍後才會恢復正常營運。

  • Well, 2025 wasn't the year anyone in the industry thought it would be. And no matter the unique challenges Americans faced, we did the hard work to build a solid foundation for our future. Our balance sheet is the strongest it's been in years.

    嗯,2025年並不是業界任何人預想的年份。無論美國人面臨怎樣的獨特挑戰,我們都付出了艱苦的努力,為我們的未來奠定了堅實的基礎。我們的資產負債表是多年來最強勁的。

  • On the labor front, over the last 30 months, we've successfully negotiated ratified agreements with our pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, fleet service agents, passenger service agents, reservations agents, and more recently our flight crew training instructor and simulator pilot groups. Our fleet is in excellent shape.

    在勞工方面,在過去 30 個月裡,我們成功地與飛行員、空服員、機械師、機隊服務代理、乘客服務代理、預訂代理以及最近的飛行機組培訓教員和模擬機飛行員團體達成了經批准的協議。我們的車隊狀況極佳。

  • Thanks to the significant investments we've made, we have low capital requirements and no required aircraft retirements for the foreseeable future. Over the next few years, we will continue to expand our international fleet and premium seating through new deliveries and retrofit programs.

    由於我們進行了大量投資,因此我們的資本需求較低,在可預見的未來也不需要退役飛機。在接下來的幾年裡,我們將繼續透過新交付和改裝計劃來擴大我們的國際機隊和高級座椅。

  • Additionally, we've fully restored our historical sales and distribution indirect share with our focus now on further growth in 2026 and beyond. Now we turn to the page to a new year, and a momentous chapter in our history, as we celebrate American's centennial. I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for American as we begin to see the benefits of our work in 2026.

    此外,我們已完全恢復了歷史上間接的銷售和分銷份額,現在的重點是2026年及以後的進一步成長。現在,我們翻開新的一頁,迎來美國歷史上意義非凡的一年,慶祝美國建國一百週年。我對美國未來的發展機會感到興奮,因為我們將在 2026 年開始看到我們工作的成果。

  • Our strategy to deliver on Americans' revenue potential centers on four key areas. Delivering a consistent elevated customer experience. Maximizing the power of our network and fleet. Building partnerships that deepen loyalty and lifetime value. And continuing to advance our sales, distribution, and revenue management efforts.

    我們實現美國人收入潛力的策略主要集中在四個關鍵領域。提供始終如一的高品質客戶體驗。最大限度地發揮我們的網路和車隊的效能。建立能夠加深客戶忠誠度和提升終身價值的合作關係。我們將繼續推進銷售、分銷和收入管理工作。

  • While this has been a multi-year effort, 2026 will be the year these efforts start to bear fruit. We're off to a fast start based on the booking trends we've observed in January. All-time records for the first three weeks of the year.

    雖然這是一項歷時多年的努力,但2026年將是這些努力開始結出碩果的一年。根據我們一月份觀察到的預訂趨勢,我們的開局非常迅速。今年前三週的歷史紀錄。

  • Starting with our first focus area: delivering a consistent elevated customer experience. We strive to create an experience that customers value and that our team members are proud to deliver. In the fourth quarter of 2025, our net promoter score for on-time customers was the highest in our company's history and is expected to see even more improvement in 2026. We continue to invest in the customer experience and premium products and services that differentiate American.

    首先,我們關注的第一個重點領域是:提供一致的優質客戶體驗。我們致力於創造客戶重視且團隊成員引以為傲的體驗。2025 年第四季度,我們公司準時交付客戶的淨推薦值達到了公司歷史上的最高水平,預計 2026 年還會有更大的提升。我們將繼續投資於客戶體驗以及能夠使美國品牌脫穎而出的優質產品和服務。

  • Our new flagship suite product sets the industry standard of luxury for long haul travel and has delivered leading customer satisfaction scores since its inauguration. We're expanding this product across our international capable fleet, including on the new Boeing 787-9s, the new Airbus 321XLRs, and the retrofits of our existing 777 aircraft.

    我們全新的旗艦套房產品為長途旅行樹立了行業奢華標準,自推出以來,客戶滿意度一直名列前茅。我們正在將產品推廣到我們具備國際飛行能力的機隊中,包括新型波音 787-9、新型空中巴士 321XLR 以及我們現有 777 飛機的改裝。

  • We're proud to offer the industry's leading lounge network. Including the most premium lounges, we opened our newest flagship lounge in Philadelphia last year, and we also announced plans to bring new flagship lounges to Miami and Charlotte.

    我們很自豪能夠提供業界領先的貴賓休息室網路。包括最頂級的貴賓休息室在內,我們去年在費城開設了最新的旗艦貴賓休息室,並且我們還宣布了在邁阿密和夏洛特開設新的旗艦貴賓休息室的計劃。

  • We're also making significant investments to our Admiral's Club lounges, including the renovation of our Concourse D lounge at DCA and the introduction of provisions by Admiral's Club at Charlotte, a first of its kind lounge concept for travelers that are on the go.

    我們還在對我們的 Admiral's Club 貴賓休息室進行了大量投資,包括翻新 DCA 機場 D 航站樓貴賓休息室,以及在夏洛特機場推出 Admiral's Club 貴賓休息室,這是首個面向忙碌旅客的貴賓休息室概念。

  • We are also enhancing the onboard experience with the introduction of mattress pads for added comfort, upgraded food, and beverage offerings, and other thoughtful touches throughout the journey.

    我們還透過引入床墊以增加舒適度、升級食品和飲料供應以及在整個旅程中提供其他貼心服務來提昇機上體驗。

  • Rolling out this month, Advantage members will enjoy complimentary high-speed satellite Wi-Fi on our narrow body aircraft, dual class regional jets, and our new premium Boeing 787-9s, sponsored by AT&T, reinforcing connectivity as a core aspect of the customer journey and a benefit that our members value.

    從本月起,Advantage 會員將可在我們的窄體飛機、雙艙支線噴射機和我們新的高級波音 787-9 飛機上享受由 AT&T 贊助的免費高速衛星 Wi-Fi,這進一步鞏固了網絡連接作為客戶體驗核心要素以及我們會員所重視的一項福利的地位。

  • The early feedback shows increased satisfaction, especially among younger generations. American will offer more free high-speed satellite Wi-Fi on more aircraft and on more flights than any other carrier in the world.

    早期回饋顯示滿意度提高,尤其是在年輕一代。美國航空將在比世界上任何其他航空公司更多的飛機和航班上提供免費高速衛星Wi-Fi。

  • We also know that reliability and disruption management are key drivers of customer satisfaction and revenue production, and we're taking steps to improve our reliability. First, we're transforming the way we operate at DFW to prepare for future growth at our largest and most profitable hub.

    我們也知道,可靠性和中斷管理是客戶滿意度和收入的關鍵驅動因素,我們正在採取措施提高可靠性。首先,我們正在改變達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場 (DFW) 的運作方式,為我們最大、最賺錢的樞紐機場的未來成長做好準備。

  • Moving to a new 13 bank structure is designed to increase customer connection opportunities, reduce air traffic delays, and allow for quicker recovery during irregular operations, all while providing more on-time arrival certainty to our 100,000 customers traveling through DFW each day.

    過渡到新的 13 銀行結構旨在增加客戶連接機會,減少空中交通延誤,並在不正常運作期間更快地恢復,同時為每天途經達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場的 10 萬名客戶提供更準時的到達確定性。

  • Importantly, we expect this change will open the door to future expansion in a market with significant economic and population growth. In the coming years, we'll see the completion of a new Terminal-F along with further enhancements and gate expansion at two other terminals. Once completed, American will operate the largest single carrier hub in the world at DFW.

    重要的是,我們預計這一變化將為未來在經濟和人口大幅增長的市場中擴張打開大門。未來幾年,我們將看到新的 F 航站樓竣工,同時另外兩個航站樓也將進行進一步的改進和登機口擴建。建成後,美國航空將在達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場營運全球最大的單一航空公司樞紐。

  • We're also investing in our schedules and in technology to ensure more on-time arrivals, fewer missed connections, and a smoother travel experience. We're bolstering our ability to get customers and their bags to where they're going on time and we expect these changes will have a meaningful impact on customer satisfaction scores.

    我們也正在投資改進航班時刻表和技術,以確保更多航班準時到達,減少錯過轉機的情況,並提供更順暢的旅行體驗。我們正在加強將顧客及其行李準時送達目的地的能力,我們預計這些改變將對顧客滿意度評分產生顯著影響。

  • Our second focus area is maximizing the power of our network and fleet. We're a premium global airline with the strongest network in the US, the most important aviation market in the world. 8 of our hubs are located in the 10 largest metropolitan areas in the US. We're maximizing the power of our network, global reach of our partners to connect more people to more places than any other airline.

    我們的第二個重點領域是最大限度地發揮我們的網路和車隊的效能。我們是一家全球領先的航空公司,在美國擁有最強大的航線網絡,而美國是世界上最重要的航空市場。我們的8個樞紐機場位於美國十大都會區。我們正在最大限度地發揮我們網路的力量,利用我們合作夥伴的全球影響力,將更多的人連接到比其他航空公司更多的地點。

  • Our current domestic growth plans for 2026 are focused on scaling hubs where we can grow our local share and fully utilize existing infrastructure, particularly in Philadelphia, Miami, and Phoenix. We'll also be rounding out our schedule in Chicago. Improved schedules combined with product enhancements are helping us win local high value customers.

    我們目前的國內成長計畫(2026 年)專注於擴大樞紐規模,以便我們能夠提高本地市場份額並充分利用現有基礎設施,尤其是在費城、邁阿密和鳳凰城。我們還將在芝加哥完成我們的行程安排。改進後的日程安排和產品升級正在幫助我們贏得本地高價值客戶。

  • Our fleet order book has a diverse mix of aircraft size and operational capabilities. This provides the opportunity to grow our hubs, invest in our local markets, and expand servers globally. Our international offerings in 2026 will include new routes to premier destinations like Budapest and Prague and growth with our international joint business and one-world partners. We remain on track to increase our international capable fleet from 139 today to 200 aircraft by the end of the decade.

    我們的機隊訂單涵蓋了各種尺寸和營運能力的飛機。這為我們發展中心、投資本地市場以及在全球擴展伺服器提供了機會。2026 年,我們的國際產品將包括飛往布達佩斯和布拉格等熱門目的地的新航線,以及與國際合資企業和寰宇一家合作夥伴的成長。我們仍按計畫推進,力爭在本十年末將具備國際飛行能力的機隊規模從目前的 139 架增加到 200 架。

  • We expect continued improvement in premium unit revenue supported by growing demand and increased premium product availability. With our current order book and the announced reconfigurations, there are 777-200, 777-300, A319, and A320 fleets. We'll deliver significant premium seat growth over the coming years, nearly twice the rate of main cabin seats. Our lie-flat seats are expected to increase by over 50% by 2030.

    我們預計,在需求成長和高端產品供應增加的推動下,高端產品單位收入將持續改善。根據我們目前的訂單和已宣布的重新配置計劃,我們擁有 777-200、777-300、A319 和 A320 機隊。未來幾年,我們將實現高階艙位的大幅成長,成長幾乎是經濟艙的兩倍。預計到 2030 年,我們的平躺座椅數量將增加 50% 以上。

  • Building partnerships that unlock loyalty and lifetime value is the third area of our focus. American invented airline loyalty, and the advantage program continues to lead the industry. We offer more value per mile, countless ways to earn and redeem miles, and more ways to engage with advantaged members, including complimentary Wi-Fi that started this month.

    建立能夠激發客戶忠誠度和終身價值的合作關係是我們關注的第三個領域。美國航空公司開創了航空公司常旅客計劃,其優勢計劃至今仍處於行業領先地位。我們提供更高的哩程價值、無數種賺取和兌換哩程的方式,以及更多與尊貴會員互動的方式,包括本月開始提供的免費 Wi-Fi。

  • Advantage enrollments increased 7% year-over-year, marking our greatest number of annual enrollments, with Chicago leading the way, up nearly 20% year-over-year. 2025 marked a record year for our co-branded credit card program, with spending on our cards up 8% year-over-year. This momentum sets the stage for our exclusive 10-year co-branded credit card partnership with Citi, which went into effect on January 1.

    Advantage 會員註冊人數較去年同期成長 7%,創下年度最高紀錄,其中芝加哥地區成長最為顯著,較去年同期成長近 20%。 2025 年也是我們聯名信用卡計畫創紀錄的一年,信用卡消費額年增 8%。這一勢頭為我們與花旗銀行獨家開展為期 10 年的聯名信用卡合作奠定了基礎,該合作已於 1 月 1 日生效。

  • In the fourth quarter, we successfully transitioned in-flight and airport acquisition channels from Barclays to Citi, and our focus in 2026 now shifts to card conversions. The Citi partnership gives our customers the most straightforward and seamless path to status in the industry. With a Citi co-branded credit card, members earn loyalty points for every dollar spent, creating more benefits for customers to engage with American.

    第四季度,我們成功地將機上和機場的獲客管道從巴克萊銀行過渡到花旗銀行,而我們 2026 年的重點現在轉向信用卡轉換。花旗銀行的合作關係為我們的客戶提供了業界最直接、最方便的晉升途徑。使用花旗聯名信用卡,會員每消費一美元即可獲得忠誠度積分,為客戶與美國航空互動創造更多好處。

  • Our partnership with Citi is designed to drive long-term growth in credit card acquisitions and spend, and the upside is significant. These efforts combined with the strength of our AAdvantage program will deepen engagement, enhance customer loyalty, and deliver meaningful long-term value to American.

    我們與花旗銀行的合作旨在推動信用卡業務拓展和消費的長期成長,而且收益潛力巨大。這些努力加上我們 AAdvantage 計畫的強大實力,將加深客戶參與度,增強客戶忠誠度,並為美國航空帶來有意義的長期價值。

  • Lastly, we remain focused on the continued advancement of our sales, distribution, and revenue management efforts. As we closed the year, we had restored our indirect channel share, an important milestone, but not the end of our initiative. As we move into 2026, we will continue to deepen the relationships that we've built with our corporate and agency partners and capture greater share among high value corporate travelers and premium leisure customers.

    最後,我們將繼續專注於提升銷售、分銷和收入管理水準。在這一年即將結束之際,我們已經恢復了間接通路份額,這是一個重要的里程碑,但這並不是我們計劃的終點。展望 2026 年,我們將繼續深化與企業和代理商合作夥伴建立的關係,並在高價值商務旅客和高端休閒客戶中贏得更大的市場份額。

  • Across the commercial organization, we see significant opportunities by sharpening our fair product architecture and continuing to improve our revenue management processes and technology. In the fourth quarter, we made changes to our basic economy product to drive a clearer segmentation while still offering a better basic product than any of our competitors.

    在整個商業組織中,我們看到了透過完善公平的產品架構並不斷改善收入管理流程和技術而獲得的巨大機會。第四季度,我們對基礎經濟型產品進行了調整,以實現更清晰的市場細分,同時仍提供比任何競爭對手更好的基礎產品。

  • Throughout the year, we will continue evaluating our premium offerings, particularly our extra legroom product, which is a compelling option for corporate customers. And finally, we will continue innovating our commercial systems through the deployment of best-in-class technology solutions.

    今年,我們將繼續評估我們的高端產品,特別是我們的加長腿部空間產品,該產品對企業客戶來說是一個極具吸引力的選擇。最後,我們將繼續透過部署一流的技術解決方案來創新我們的商業系統。

  • And lastly, I want to acknowledge that this week marks the one-year anniversary of the tragic accident of Flight 5342. We remain committed to supporting everyone affected by that tragedy through our Office of Continued Care and Outreach. And I want to commend our team for handling this difficult situation in an exemplary way.

    最後,我想指出,本周是 5342 號班機悲劇事故發生一週年紀念日。我們將繼續透過我們的持續關懷和外展辦公室,為所有受這場悲劇影響的人提供支持。我還要表揚我們的團隊,他們以堪稱典範的方式處理了這個棘手的情況。

  • Devon will now share more about our financial results in the 2026 outlook.

    德文郡將在 2026 年展望中分享更多關於我們財務表現的資訊。

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Thank you, Robert. Excluding net special items, American reported fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.16 and full year adjusted earnings per share of $0.36. These results came in below our guidance, primarily due to the prolonged government shutdown, which impacted revenue by approximately $325 million.

    謝謝你,羅伯特。剔除特殊項目淨額後,美國航空公佈的第四季調整後每股收益為0.16美元,全年調整後每股收益為0.36美元。這些業績低於我們的預期,主因是政府長期停擺,導致公司營收減少約3.25億美元。

  • The impact of the government shutdown was largely concentrated in the domestic entity where American has the largest exposure, especially our hub at DCA and its relative weighting towards government-related traffic. This disruption was temporary, but it impacted revenue in November and December.

    政府停擺的影響主要集中在美國航空業務佔比最大的國內實體,特別是我們在 DCA 的樞紐,以及其相對較高的政府相關流量。這次中斷是暫時的,但對11月和12月的收入造成了影響。

  • Following softer than expected bookings late in the fourth quarter, bookings strengthened meaningfully in January. System-wide revenue intakes for the first three weeks of 2026 are up double-digits year-over-year. Premium continued to outperform main cabin throughout the quarter, a trend that has remained consistent all year, underscoring the strength of the premium customer and demand for the premium products we offer.

    繼第四季末預訂量低於預期之後,1月預訂量顯著回升。2026 年前三週的系統收入年增兩位數。本季度,高級艙位持續優於主艙位,這一趨勢全年保持不變,凸顯了高級艙位客戶的實力以及市場對我們提供的高級艙位產品的需求。

  • Our fourth quarter, year-over-year premium unit revenue outpaced main cabin by 7 points. We continue to see strength in our indirect channels with managed corporate revenue of 12% year-over-year, which has strengthened further so far in 2026.

    我們第四季的高級艙位收入比去年同期高出 7 個百分點。我們持續看到間接通路的強勁勢頭,管理的企業收入年增 12%,而且 2026 年至今這一勢頭進一步增強。

  • Looking ahead, we expect premium unit revenue momentum to remain strong in 2026, but also expect main cabin to deliver strong year-over-year improvement, assuming a stable macroeconomic backdrop. Year-over-year unit revenue for the domestic entity had inflected positive in September and remained positive before the impact of the government shutdown.

    展望未來,我們預計 2026 年高階艙位收入成長動能將保持強勁,同時,在宏觀經濟環境穩定的前提下,主艙位收入也將實現強勁的年成長。國內實體的同比單位收入在 9 月轉正,並在政府停擺的影響之前保持正增長。

  • Excluding the government shutdown, year-over-year domestic unit revenue would have been positive for the quarter. Our international entities performed in line with the guidance we provided in October. Atlantic unit revenue was up 4% year-over-year. And it was our most profitable region during the quarter as seasonal demand trends and demand for our premium offerings continued to strengthen in the fourth quarter.

    如果不考慮政府停擺的影響,該季度國內單位收入將年增為正。我們的國際實體業績符合我們在10月提供的預期。大西洋業務部門的營收年增 4%。第四季度,隨著季節性需求趨勢和對我們高端產品的需求持續增強,該地區成為我們本季獲利最高的地區。

  • Once again, unit revenues in Latin America remained under pressure during the quarter. We expect this to be a continued headwind for the first half of 2026. As we have said in the past, Americans' presence in the region, the premium services we offer, and the scale we have in Miami and our other southern hubs allow for profitable results in this environment and a continued long-term competitive advantage.

    本季度,拉丁美洲地區的單位收入再次面臨壓力。我們預計這將成為2026年上半年持續的不利因素。正如我們過去所說,美國人在該地區的存在、我們提供的優質服務以及我們在邁阿密和其他南部樞紐的規模,使得我們在這種環境下能夠獲得盈利成果,並保持長期的競爭優勢。

  • And finally, Pacific unit revenue was slightly down year-over-year but showed sequential improvement from the third quarter supported by strength in the premium cabins.

    最後,太平洋航空​​的單位收入較去年同期略有下降,但較第三季有所環比改善,這得益於高階艙位的強勁表現。

  • Looking to Q1, we expect domestic unit revenue to get back on trend and be nicely positive for the quarter, driven by both strengthened premium and main cabin demand. We expect international unit revenue performance will be mixed with continued strong transatlantic performance and flattest unit revenue in the Latin America and Pacific entities.

    展望第一季度,我們預計國內單位收入將恢復正常水平,並在本季度實現良好正增長,這主要得益於高端艙位和普通艙位需求的增強。我們預計國際業務部門的營收表現將喜憂參半,其中跨大西洋業務將繼續保持強勁增長,而拉丁美洲和太平洋地區的業務部門收入將最為平穩。

  • As Robert mentioned earlier, American is continuing to invest in expanding our premium offerings across the customer journey. We are already recognized among the US network carriers for having the highest rated and most consistent products across our long haul fleet, and we expect to expand that product further in 2026 with 10 additional A321 XLR deliveries and the full utilization of our 11 premium Boeing 787-9s.

    正如羅伯特之前提到的,美國航空將繼續投資,以擴展我們在客戶旅程中的優質服務。我們已在美國網路航空公司中享有盛譽,因為我們的遠端機隊擁有最高評級和最穩定的產品,我們預計在 2026 年將透過額外交付 10 架 A321 XLR 和充分利用我們的 11 架高端波音 787-9 飛機進一步擴大該產品。

  • Additionally, our Boeing 777-300 retrofit has started, and customers will enjoy a 20% increase in premium seats as the retrofitted aircraft roll out this year and next. These efforts will continue in future years with retrofits on the Boeing 777-200, the A319, and the A320 fleets. With these investments in our existing fleet along with our new deliveries, we expect our premium seat growth will outpace our non-premium offerings each year for the remainder of the decade.

    此外,我們的波音 777-300 改裝工程已經開始,隨著改裝後的飛機在今年和明年陸續投入使用,客戶將享受高級座位數量增加 20% 的折扣。未來幾年,這些努力將繼續進行,對波音 777-200、A319 和 A320 機隊進行改裝。憑藉對現有機隊的這些投資以及新交付的飛機,我們預計在未來十年剩餘的時間裡,我們的高端座位增長速度將逐年超過非高端座位的增長速度。

  • Sow on to our earnings outlook for 2026. Our guidance today reflects our preliminary estimate of Winter Storm Fern. Our guidance always includes a completion factor assumption for winter weather. But as Robert mentioned earlier, the impact of this storm is unlike anything we have ever experienced.

    接下來,讓我們展望一下2026年的獲利前景。我們今天的指導反映了我們對冬季風暴「弗恩」的初步估計。我們的指導意見始終包含冬季天氣條件下的完工係數假設。但正如羅伯特之前提到的,這場風暴的影響是我們前所未見的。

  • For the first quarter, capacity is projected to be up 3% to 5% year-over-year as we maximize the value of our network through stronger schedules in many of our hub cities. This is inclusive of approximately 1.5 impact from Winter Storm Fern.

    第一季度,由於我們透過在許多樞紐城市加強航班時刻表來最大限度地發揮網路價值,預計運力將年增 3% 至 5%。這其中包括冬季風暴弗恩造成的約 1.5 倍影響。

  • Our 2026 capacity plan includes significant growth in Philadelphia, Miami, and Phoenix as we take advantage of near-term opportunities and utilize existing facilities. Our growth for the year is expected to be evenly balanced across domestic and international entities.

    我們的 2026 年產能計畫包括在費城、邁阿密和鳳凰城實現顯著成長,我們將抓住近期機會並利用現有設施。預計我們今年的成長將在國內和國際實體之間保持均衡。

  • We expect first quarter revenue to be at between 7% and 10% year-over-year, driven by improvements in the domestic entity from expected growth in corporate passenger volumes and as demand continues to recover as we lap the challenges experienced in the first quarter of 2025. This includes an estimated revenue impact of between $150 million to $200 million from the ongoing Winter Storm Fern.

    我們預計第一季營收將年增 7% 至 10%,這主要得益於國內實體業務的改善,包括企業旅客數量的預期增長,以及隨著我們克服 2025 年第一季遇到的挑戰,需求持續復甦。這其中包括持續的冬季風暴「蕨類植物」預計將造成的 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元的收入損失。

  • First quarter CASM-ex fuel X profit sharing and net special items is anticipated to be up between 3% and 5% as we absorb the flight attendant boarding pay, an additional benefit that went into effect in the second quarter of 2025, and as we staff ahead of the summer to support peak growth. The CASM-ex impact from Winter Storm Fern is approximately 1.5 points.

    預計第一季扣除燃油、利潤分成和淨特殊項目後的單位可用座位公里收入 (CASM) 將增長 3% 至 5%,因為我們將吸收乘務員登機津貼(一項於 2025 年第二季度生效的額外福利),並且我們將在夏季到來之前配備人員以支持增長高峰。冬季風暴弗恩對 CASM-ex 的影響約為 1.5 分。

  • We remain confident in our ability to deliver the most efficient capacity in the industry as we continue our multi-year effort to re-engineer the business. This transformation leverages technology and streamlines processes to enable an improved customer and team member experience while driving a more efficient business.

    我們仍有信心提供業界最高效的產能,我們將繼續推動為期多年的業務重組工作。此次轉型利用技術並簡化流程,進而改善客戶和團隊成員的體驗,同時推動業務更有效率。

  • These efficiencies enable our mainline work groups to operate at their highest productivity levels, partially mitigating the impact of contractual labor rate increases and other inflationary pressures. In 2026, we expect an additional $250 million of savings from these efforts versus 2025, bringing our cumulative operating savings to nearly a $1 billion since 2023 and total working capital improvements of nearly $900 million, meeting the expectations set at the start of the program.

    這些效率提升使我們的主力工作團隊能夠以最高的生產效率水準運作,從而部分緩解合約工工資上漲和其他通膨壓力的影響。預計到 2026 年,這些措施將比 2025 年再節省 2.5 億美元,使我們自 2023 年以來的累計營運節省額接近 10 億美元,營運資金改善總額接近 9 億美元,達到了該計畫啟動時設定的預期目標。

  • With this first quarter guidance inclusive of the impact of Winter Storm Fern, we expect to deliver an adjusted loss per diluted share of between $0.10 and $0.50. The guidance range for the quarter is slightly wider than what we traditionally use as we continue to evaluate the impact of this extraordinary weather event.

    考慮到冬季風暴「弗恩」的影響,我們預計第一季調整後每股攤薄虧損將在0.10美元至0.50美元之間。由於我們仍在評估此極端天氣事件的影響,因此本季的業績指引範圍略寬於我們以往的指引範圍。

  • For the full year, we expect adjusted earnings per diluted share of approximately $1.70 to $2.70. Lastly, turning to CapEx and the balance sheet, in 2026, we expect to take delivery of 55 new aircraft. Based on our current expectations, our 2026 total capital expenditures are expected to be between $4 billion and $4.5 billion consistent with our prior guidance.

    我們預計全年調整後每股攤薄收益約為 1.70 美元至 2.70 美元。最後,關於資本支出和資產負債表,我們預計在 2026 年接收 55 架新飛機。根據我們目前的預期,我們預計 2026 年的總資本支出將在 40 億美元至 45 億美元之間,這與我們先前的指導一致。

  • Based on these earnings and capital projections, we anticipate free cash flow generation of more than $2 billion for the full year. We continue to make significant progress in strengthening our balance sheet. At the start of 2025, we committed to reducing total debt by approximately $4 billion to less than $35 billion by the end of 2027. During 2025, we reduced total debt by $2.1 billion bringing our total debt to $36.5 billion.

    根據這些收益和資本預測,我們預計全年自由現金流將超過 20 億美元。我們在加強資產負債表方面持續取得顯著進展。2025年初,我們承諾在2027年底將總債務減少約40億美元,降至350億美元以下。2025年,我們減少了21億美元的債務,使總債務降至365億美元。

  • At the midpoint of our EPS and CapEx guidance, we would hit our 2027 goal to have total debt below $35 billion a year ahead of schedule in 2026. And with over $2 billion of free cash flow this year, we expect that by year end we will have our lowest level of net debt since the end of 2014.

    按照我們每股盈餘和資本支出指引的中點計算,我們將在 2026 年提前一年實現 2027 年總債務低於 350 億美元的目標。今年我們的自由現金流超過 20 億美元,預計到年底,我們的淨債務水準將達到 2014 年底以來的最低水準。

  • I'll now hand the call back to Robert for closing remarks.

    現在我將把電話交還給羅伯特,請他作總結發言。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Devon. This year marks our 100th anniversary, a remarkable milestone that reflects a legacy of innovation, resilience, and caring for people on life's journey. We've been innovators since the beginning. We invented the first reservation system and the first revenue management system, the first airport lounge, and the first airline loyalty program, which continues to lead the industry today.

    謝謝你,德文。今年是我們成立 100 週年,這是一個非凡的里程碑,體現了我們不斷創新、堅韌不拔以及關懷人們人生旅程的傳統。我們從一開始就是創新者。我們發明了第一個預訂系統、第一個收益管理系統、第一個機場貴賓室和第一個航空公司常旅客計劃,至今仍引領著產業發展。

  • From our humble beginnings as a mail carrier between Chicago and St. Louis, today, American Airlines is a premium global airline that connects more of the US to the world, powered by a proud team of over 130,000 aviation professionals unmatched in talent and spirit, with the proven ability to adapt, innovate, and always strive for better.

    從芝加哥和聖路易斯之間的郵件運輸起步,如今,美國航空已發展成為一家連接美國更多地區與世界的優質全球航空公司。我們擁有超過 13 萬名航空專業人員組成的驕傲團隊,他們在才華和精神方面無人能及,並擁有適應、創新和不斷追求卓越的卓越能力。

  • I've been in this business for a long time, and I'm incredibly excited about what lies ahead for American. The foundation we built in 2025 combined with our go forward strategy positions us to deliver sustainable growth and create long-term value for our customers, team members, and shareholders.

    我從事這個行業很久了,我對美國航空的未來充滿期待。我們在 2025 年奠定的基礎,加上我們未來的發展策略,使我們能夠實現永續成長,並為我們的客戶、團隊成員和股東創造長期價值。

  • Americans tagline for our centennial year is Forever Forward. It embodies all the things that we've accomplished over the past 100 years and all the opportunities in front of us. From elevating the travel experience and strengthening our network to unlocking loyalty and driving efficiency, we're executing on a strategy and initiatives that will drive value and shape our next 100 years as a premium global airline.

    美國人為慶祝建國百年所獻上的口號是「永遠向前」。它體現了我們過去100年所取得的所有成就,以及我們面前的所有機會。從提升旅遊體驗、加強航線網絡,到激發客戶忠誠度、提高營運效率,我們正在執行一系列策略和舉措,這些策略和舉措將創造價值,並塑造我們作為全球高端航空公司的下一個百年。

  • Thank you for your interest in American Airlines. And operator, you may now open the line for questions.

    感謝您對美國航空公司的關注。接線員,現在可以開始接受提問了。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions)

    (操作說明)

  • Conor Cunningham, Melius Research.

    康納‧坎寧安,梅利烏斯研究公司。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • I was hoping we could talk about the hub structure a little bit. You have a bunch of fresh eyes looking at it right now, and clearly there's a lot of questions about what's happening in Chicago. So I was hoping you could talk about how you view profitability by hub and then where you see the most upside from your hub standpoint in 2026 and beyond.

    我希望我們能稍微談談樞紐結構。現在有許多全新的視野在關注芝加哥,顯然大家對芝加哥正在發生的事情有很多疑問。所以我希望您能談談您如何看待各個樞紐的盈利能力,以及您認為在 2026 年及以後,從您的樞紐角度來看,哪些方面最具增長潛力。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Hey, thanks, Connor, and I'll just dive right into Chicago. We've been flying to Chicago for 100 years, and it was where our first flight took place, in fact, and it's going to be part of our system for the next 100 years. When we look at Chicago, it's strategically important. It is something that we're going to grow back to where we were prior to the pandemic to 500 flights. We feel that's rounding it out. That gets us to where we think that we need to be.

    嘿,謝謝你,康納,那我這就直接進入芝加哥的行程了。我們已經飛往芝加哥100年了,事實上,我們的第一次飛行就是從那裡開始的,而且在接下來的100年裡,它仍將是我們航線網絡的一部分。當我們審視芝加哥時,會發現它具有重要的戰略意義。我們將努力恢復到疫情前的水平,達到每天 500 個航班。我們覺得這樣就比較完整了。這樣就能讓我們達到我們認為自己應該達到的目標。

  • And I'm really pleased with what I see from the results so far. Local customer mixed up 20%, loyalty acquisitions up 20%, co-branded credit card acquisitions up 20%. So we're making sure that we're doing best for our customers. And when it comes to Chicago, we would expect that it returns to the average profitability of our hub network. It's going to be our third largest hub, and we're going to get keep at work, taking care of our customers and making sure that it performs as best as it possibly can.

    我對目前為止的結果非常滿意。本地客戶成長 20%,忠誠度客戶成長 20%,聯名信用卡客戶成長 20%。所以我們要確保為客戶提供最好的服務。至於芝加哥,我們預計它的獲利能力將恢復到我們樞紐網路的平均值。它將成為我們的第三大樞紐,我們將繼續努力,照顧好我們的客戶,並確保它發揮最佳性能。

  • Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

    Conor Cunningham - Equity Analyst

  • Awesome. And then maybe we could talk a little bit about just the cost trajectory in 2026. I think -- I mean, you quantify what you expect from 1Q just from the storms and that's helpful. But it just -- it seems like 1Q is going to be your high water mark. So just how you think about the shape of the cost curve in '26 would be helpful.

    驚人的。然後,我們或許可以稍微討論一下 2026 年的成本走勢。我認為——我的意思是,你可以量化你對第一季風暴的預期,這很有幫助。但是,看起來第一季將會是你的巔峰之作。所以,您如何看待 2026 年的成本曲線形狀將很有幫助。

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Hey, thanks for the question. The construct we've given in the past is that at around mid-single-digit capacity for this year, we would expect our unit cost to be low single-digit growth, and that's what we would have experienced here in the first quarter. We expected unit cost growth in that 2% to 3% range prior to Winter Storm Fern. So that's where we'll be for the year.

    嘿,謝謝你的提問。我們過去給出的預測是,如果今年的產能保持在個位數中段水平,我們預計單位成本將實現個位數低段增長,而這正是我們在第一季所經歷的。在冬季風暴弗恩到來之前,我們預計單位成本成長幅度在 2% 到 3% 之間。所以今年我們的行程就是這樣。

  • I think, quarter to quarter it might move a little bit up or down depending on what's happening with the timing of certain maintenance events. But if we end up at mid-single-digit capacity, I would expect low single-digit CASM. As always though, we'll be flexible with capacity depending on the demand and competitive environment we find ourselves in.

    我認為,每個季度它可能會略有上升或下降,這取決於某些維護事件的時間表。但如果我們最終的產能達到個位數中段,我預計平均每百萬英鎊收入(CASM)將低於個位數。不過,我們將一如既往地根據市場需求和競爭環境靈活調整產能。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Katie O'Brien, Goldman Sachs.

    凱蒂‧歐布萊恩,高盛集團。

  • Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

    Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

  • So maybe just on the premium growth rate, I know you've shared that premium seat growth rate will be double main cabin seats at the end of this decade, and I think you've previously noted, that's driven by 20% premium seat growth and 50% lie-flat growth through 2030. I'm just wondering what does that look like in 2026, how much seed growth is driven by premium?

    所以,就高階艙位的成長率而言,我知道您曾說過,到本十年末,高階艙位的成長率將是主艙的兩倍,而且我認為您之前也提到過,這是由到 2030 年高階艙位 20% 的成長和可平躺座椅 50% 的成長所推動的。我只是想知道到 2026 年會是什麼樣子,種子增長有多少是由溢價驅動的?

  • How quickly are you growing those lie-flat seats, and how does this factor into your full year revenue outlook? Is there a mixed shift benefit included? And how should we think about that?

    你們的平躺座椅成長速度有多快?這會對你們的全年收入預期產生什麼影響?是否包含輪班津貼?我們該如何看待這個問題?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Katie. I'm going to hand that off to Nat Pieper, our Chief Commercial Officer.

    謝謝你,凱蒂。我將把這個話題交給我們的首席商務官納特·皮珀。

  • Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

    Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Katie, good morning. On the premium side, our premium performance in Q4 '25, premium RASM was superior to non-premium by 7 points, both domestically and internationally very strong. And as we look forward into '26 by entity, you'll continue to see our premium mix improve. We're taking delivery of A321 XLRs, or more 787-9P configuration, P standing for premium, and we'll continue to deploy more premium seats into international markets.

    凱蒂,早安。在高端市場方面,我們在 2025 年第四季的高端市場表現強勁,高端市場 RASM 比非高階市場高出 7 個百分點,無論在國內或國際市場都表現非常出色。展望 2026 年,我們將按實體劃分,您將看到我們的優質產品組合不斷改進。我們正在接收A321 XLR飛機,或更多787-9P配置的飛機(P代表高級配置),我們將繼續在國際市場上部署更多高級座椅。

  • By entity, just quickly, if you think on the transatlantic side, demand there continues to be really strong across both products, all parts of our business, Heathrow, rest of Europe, etc. and our joint business partners seeing similar things. Premium holding up well in the Pacific as well as in our deep South Latin market too.

    從實體角度來看,簡單來說,如果你考慮跨大西洋地區,無論是我們的產品、我們業務的各個方面、希思羅機場、歐洲其他地區等等,需求都依然非常強勁,我們的合資夥伴也看到了類似的情況。高端產品在太平洋地區以及我們位於拉丁美洲南部的深遠市場都表現良好。

  • So you're going to continue to see richness. We see a lot of depth in the premium market, and we're really excited about American's product evolving, the customer experience investments we're making, all tuned to that premium traveler.

    所以你還會繼續看到豐富的景象。我們看到高端市場潛力巨大,我們對美國航空的產品發展以及我們在客戶體驗方面的投資感到非常興奮,所有這些都是為了滿足高端旅客的需求。

  • Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

    Catherine O'Brien - Analyst

  • Great. Nat, great to hear from you at your new gig. Maybe just one for Devon. You pulled forward your debt reduction target by a year once again, now expected to be less than $35 billion by the end of this year, instead of '27.

    偉大的。娜特,很高興收到你新工作的消息。或許只給德文郡一個。你們再次將債務削減目標提前了一年,預計到今年年底債務將低於 350 億美元,而不是原計劃的 2027 年。

  • I think when I asked you at my conference last December, you said you'd contemplate what the right medium-term or longer-term leverage target would be once you got to under $35 billion. I know we're not there quite yet, but with the target approaching. How are you thinking about the balance sheet and when the potential buyback start to figure into the calculus again.

    我記得去年 12 月在我的會議上問過你這個問題,你說一旦公司規模降至 350 億美元以下,你就會考慮合適的中期或長期槓桿目標是多少。我知道我們還沒有完全達到目標,但目標正在臨近。您如何看待資產負債表,以及何時會再次將潛在的股票回購納入考量?

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Katie, listen. We are really pleased with the progress we've made on the balance sheet, not just over the last year, but really over the past three- or four years. And we talk about the priorities, they remain the same. We focus first on taking care of our customers and making the right investments there, taking care of our team members and then any investments we need to make back in the business.

    凱蒂,聽我說。我們對資產負債表的進展感到非常滿意,不僅是過去一年,而是過去三、四年來的進展。我們談到優先事項,它們始終沒有改變。我們首先專注於照顧好客戶,並在那裡進行正確的投資;其次是照顧好我們的團隊成員;最後才是我們需要對業務進行的任何投資。

  • And then beyond that, any free cash flow that we're producing, we are putting into the balance sheet. And that's what's allowed us to achieve this goal and achieve this goal a year early.

    此外,我們產生的任何自由現金流都會計入資產負債表。正是這一點讓我們能夠實現這個目標,並且提早一年實現這個目標。

  • But we still have a lot of work to do before we shift our focus to any sort of shareholder remuneration. We need to get inside of 3x net debt-to-EBITDA. That was our longer-term stated goal. We want to get to a BB flat credit rating. So some work to do still on the ratings and metrics side, but really happy with the progress we've made so far.

    但在我們將注意力轉移到任何形式的股東回報之前,我們還有很多工作要做。我們需要將淨債務與 EBITDA 的比率控制在 3 倍以內。那是我們長期既定的目標。我們希望達到BB級信用評等。所以在評分和指標方面還有一些工作要做,但我們對目前的進展感到非常滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • John Godyn, Citi.

    約翰‧戈丁,花旗集團。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • I wanted to ask a little bit about full year guidance. I think the narrative that we've heard from other airlines so far is that the year has started out very strong, and we've seen what people have interpreted as a conservative guidance in light of that. It sounds like you guys see similar trends based on how things have started the year.

    我想問一下關於全年指導的問題。我認為我們目前從其他航空公司聽到的說法是,今年開局非常強勁,鑑於此,人們也看到了較保守的業績預期。聽起來你們似乎也看到了類似的趨勢,這都源自於年初的種種變故。

  • I just was hoping to kind of dialogue about how you would characterize your full year guidance and areas where you think there may be some conservatism, if that's how you see it at all?

    我只是想和您探討一下您會如何描述您全年的指導方針,以及您認為在哪些方面可能存在一些保守傾向(如果您確實這麼認為的話)?

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • John, maybe I'll just start with the first quarter, which I think is really a 50-50 forecast at this point. We've attempted to capture the impact of Winter Storm Fern, but we'll know more about that impact over the next week or so, which is why we provided a little bit wider range here in Q1. Say, for the full year, though, probably similar comments to what we've heard from others. I think if bookings continue at their current pace. This guide could prove to be conservative. But we'll see how the year plays out. Right now, we're a month in, and we're comfortable with this range.

    約翰,或許我先從第一季開始,我覺得目前來看,第一季的預測結果真的只有五五開。我們已經嘗試捕捉冬季風暴「蕨類」的影響,但在接下來的一周左右,我們會更多地了解這種影響,這就是為什麼我們在第一季提供了更廣泛的範圍。但就全年而言,可能也會聽到和我們從其他人那裡聽到的類似的評論。我認為如果預訂量繼續保持目前的速度。這份指引可能比較保守。但我們拭目以待,看看今年情況會如何發展。目前已經過去一個月了,我們對這個範圍感到滿意。

  • John Godyn - Analyst

    John Godyn - Analyst

  • Got it. And if I could just follow up on a little bit of the Chicago commentary earlier. Completely appreciate your perspective on Chicago. One of the data points that was put out there by one of your competitors was the fact that you guys are potentially losing significant amounts of money in Chicago. I know you typically don't talk about hub level profitability, but I just wanted to give you a chance to kind of address that if there's anything to address there.

    知道了。如果可以的話,我想就之前芝加哥的評論稍作補充。非常欣賞你對芝加哥的看法。你們的競爭對手之一公佈的數據點是,你們在芝加哥可能正在損失大量資金。我知道你通常不會談論樞紐層面的獲利能力,但我只是想給你一個機會,讓你談談這方面是否有什麼需要說明的地方。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, John. Look, we're growing back to Chicago. Pleased with what we see so far. As I said, customer action has been great. And we fully expect that Chicago return to the profitability levels that had been at prior to the pandemic.

    謝謝你,約翰。瞧,我們正在重振芝加哥。對目前所見的情況感到滿意。正如我所說,顧客的反應非常好。我們完全有理由相信,芝加哥的獲利能力將恢復到疫情前的水準。

  • And I'd just say this, we're doing all the right things from that perspective. But we're -- look, we're mindful of how we're positioned. And quite frankly, I wouldn't be out there bragging about profitability in a hub when 80% of your team members make a lot less than the market rate. So we're doing right by our team members. We're doing right by our customers, and we're certainly doing right by the community in Chicago, too.

    我想說的是,從這個角度來看,我們所做的一切都是正確的。但是我們──你看,我們很清楚自己的定位。坦白說,如果團隊中 80% 的成員收入遠低於市場水平,我是不會到處吹噓自己在一個中心盈利能力的。所以,我們這樣做是對團隊成員的尊重。我們善待客戶,也善待芝加哥社區。

  • They welcome this kind of service. And the customers in Chicago, I can tell you, benefit from competition. So we're pleased with what we're doing, and we're playing our game, and we're going to make sure that we deliver for our customers.

    他們很歡迎這種服務。我可以告訴你,芝加哥的顧客會從競爭中受益。所以我們對目前的工作感到滿意,我們正在按部就班地進行,並且我們將確保為客戶提供優質服務。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Jamie Baker, JPMorgan Securities.

    Jamie Baker,摩根大通證券。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • So question -- another question on the full year guide. Last year, American contributed about 4% of the total big three pretax profit pool. Based on your disclosures today and if we just kind of use consensus for Delta and United, that 4% goes to about 12% in 2026. So I get that you may not necessarily think in these relative terms. But when we think of that improvement, how much do you attribute to the macro?

    那麼問題來了——關於全年指南的另一個問題。去年,美國航空貢獻了三大航空公司稅前利潤總額的約 4%。根據您今天披露的信息,如果我們對達美航空和美聯航的普遍預期採用這種預期,那麼到 2026 年,這一比例將從 4% 增長到約 12%。所以我明白你可能不一定會用這種相對的方式來思考問題。但當我們思考這項進步時,您認為宏觀經濟因素在其中扮演了多大角色?

  • And how much is idiosyncratic to American? And so obviously, the Citi deal is a contributor. Is there any way you could parse that implied percentage of big three improvement? That would be helpful.

    有多少是美國特有的?因此,很明顯,花旗集團的交易是促成因素。有沒有辦法解析出這隱含的三大改進百分比?那會很有幫助。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Jamie. Well, I just -- I'd say this, that obviously, some of it is due to a macro environment that is positive. Clearly, we see spend, especially for domestic coming back more into sync. And that definitely benefits American. But all the things that we're doing, as Nat mentioned, in terms of premium traffic our strategy, I think, is paying off, too.

    謝謝你,傑米。嗯,我只想說——很明顯,部分原因是宏觀環境的正面影響。很明顯,我們看到支出,尤其是國內支出,逐漸恢復正常。這無疑對美國有利。但正如 Nat 所提到的,我們在優質流量方面所做的一切,我認為我們的策略也正在取得成效。

  • So I don't know if it's 50-50 or 70-30, but it's a combination of both. And again, I'm pleased with the strategy we have. We're going to be a really efficient producer of ASMs going forward. And from a profitability perspective, the only other thing I'd just add is, yes, we expect to be a greater proportion of total industry profitability. And again, we have labor cost certainty. That's built into our numbers.

    所以我不知道是 50/50 還是 70/30,但肯定是兩者的結合。我再次重申,我對我們的策略感到滿意。未來我們將成為ASM(活性半導體模組)的高效生產商。從獲利能力的角度來看,我唯一要補充的是,是的,我們預計我們將佔整個產業獲利能力的更大比例。而且,我們的勞動成本是有保障的。這一點已經體現在我們的數據中了。

  • Jamie Baker - Analyst

    Jamie Baker - Analyst

  • Yes. Okay. And then very quickly on the firm calculus, that $150 million to $200 million revenue impact. Can I confirm that, that is net of recapture or -- well, actually, let me ask it differently. Of the lost revenue in the past week, how much do you forecast you recapture later in the quarter? Or are you just assuming that the totality of that revenue is gone for the foreseeable future?

    是的。好的。然後,根據該公司的快速計算,這將帶來 1.5 億至 2 億美元的收入影響。我可以確認一下,這是扣除重新捕獲後的淨收益嗎?或者——好吧,實際上,讓我換個方式問。對於過去一周損失的收入,您預計在本季晚些時候能夠挽回多少?還是你只是假設這筆收入在可預見的未來都會不復存在?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Jamie, I'll start. Devon could help me out on this, too. Look, we're still in the midst of assessing where things stand. We're at 9,000 camps. so it's going to probably be more than that. So that's a couple of days of operation for the entire quarter.

    傑米,我先來。德文也可以幫我解決這個問題。你看,我們還在評估事情的現況。我們現在有9000個營地,所以最終數量可能會超過這個數字。所以整季只營運了幾天。

  • And so the impact has been certainly that people didn't want to travel to some of the places that are iced in and we don't see a lot of that coming back. And the other thing is there's been a freeze on some level of bookings during this period as well.

    因此,影響顯而易見的是,人們不想去一些被冰雪覆蓋的地方旅行,而且我們看不到這種情況會恢復。另外,在此期間,部分預訂也出現了凍結現象。

  • So as we take a look at it, I like what I see in February and March in terms of the bookings that we've seen. As we really round out January, I just -- I think a lot of that is probably a foregone revenue and the fact that we've got a perishable product in terms of some people want to fly to some places on certain days.

    所以,從目前的情況來看,我對二月和三月的預訂情況感到滿意。一月份即將結束,我覺得——這其中很大一部分可能是損失的收入,而且我們的產品是易腐品,因為有些人想在特定的日子飛往某些地方。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Michael Linenberg, Deutsche Bank.

    麥可‧林伯格,德意志銀行。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Yes. I wanted to just get back to Dallas. And as you think about building that into the largest airline hub, actually single airline hub in the world. When I look at this last year, and I look at your op stats, it's been a tough year, but it does seem like that Dallas has had more than its fair share of bad weather. And I'm not here to sort of predict what I think weather is going to be like in Texas over the next few years.

    是的。我只想回達拉斯。當你考慮將其打造成為世界上最大的航空樞紐,實際上是世界上最大的單一航空樞紐。回顧去年,再看看你們的營運統計數據,確實是艱難的一年,但達拉斯似乎遭受的惡劣天氣比其他地方多得多。我來這裡不是為了預測未來幾年德州的天氣會是什麼樣子。

  • But you do have knock-on effects as that hub builds out. As you think about building that out, does that at all factor in your calculus and how it can impact the entire system, maybe whether there just being so much of your system being driven by the Dallas operation?

    但隨著中心的發展,確實會產生連鎖反應。在考慮如何建構該系統時,您是否考慮過這會對整個系統產生怎樣的影響,例如,您的系統中有多少部分是由達拉斯的運作所驅動的?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks for that question. I'd just say that Winter Storm Fern, it is something that is relatively unprecedented. I don't -- I won't say that it's never happened before. But we get this kind of storm once every 5- to 10 years in DFW. And having been here for over 10 years, that's been my experience.

    謝謝你的提問。我想說的是,冬季風暴「蕨類植物」是一場相對前所未有的災難。我不會說這種情況以前從未發生過。但達拉斯-沃斯堡地區每 5 到 10 年就會遇到這種風暴。我在這裡生活了十多年,我的親身經歷也是如此。

  • We recover as quickly as we can. But over the long term, DFW is the fastest growing -- one of the fastest-growing metro regions in the country. And the product that we're putting out is fantastic. As we think about growing though, reliability is key. So one of the things that we're doing this coming year is reassessing how we bank our operation and pulling down the peaks quite a bit.

    我們會盡快恢復。但從長遠來看,達拉斯-沃斯堡是成長最快的地區——是全國成長最快的都會區之一。我們推出的產品非常棒。但就發展而言,可靠性至關重要。因此,我們明年要做的事情之一就是重新評估我們的營運資金來源,並大幅降低高峰。

  • So you'll see us convert to a 13 bank operation, yet still have a presence in local markets that's equal to the biggest banks anybody else flies. At the same time, we're making sure that our facilities can keep up with that. You've heard about the new DFW Terminal F, which is just progressing at a great rate. But we'll be opening up a new satellite on Terminal C later this year and also on Terminal A. So we're going to make sure that we have the facilities, the schedule that works for it.

    所以你會看到我們轉型為一家擁有 13 家銀行的營運機構,但仍然在本地市場擁有與任何其他銀行都無法比擬的規模最大的銀行一樣的影響力。同時,我們也在確保我們的設施能夠滿足這些需求。您一定聽說過達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場 (DFW) 新建的 F 航站樓,它的建設進展非常迅速。但今年晚些時候,我們將在C航站樓開設一個新的衛星航站樓,A航站樓也將開設一個。所以我們將確保我們擁有相應的設施和時間表。

  • And then the final piece is we're working on aerospace as well. So we're always going to have to take care of irregular operations events, and we'll sow out here, don't worry about that. And the Mother Nature has a way of hitting everybody equally over time. But I really like what we're doing in terms of making sure that we're as reliable as possible. And then also, we're going to continue to invest in making sure that our irregular operations recovery is the best in the business.

    最後一點是,我們也在從事航空航太領域的工作。所以我們必須時時注意突發事件,我們會在這裡處理,不用擔心。隨著時間的推移,大自然總會以同樣的方式懲罰每一個人。但我非常欣賞我們目前所做的工作,即確保我們盡可能地可靠。此外,我們將繼續加大投入,確保我們的非正常營運復原能力在業界首屈一指。

  • Michael Linenberg - Analyst

    Michael Linenberg - Analyst

  • Okay. And then just a follow-up on the Dallas. As you build that out, sort of where -- and maybe this is for Nat, as well, just where the Connect versus local split is today? And as you add, you build that up, where does that -- what does that evolve to? How does that shift, if at all?

    好的。然後是關於達拉斯的後續報導。隨著你逐步完善,大概會發現——也許這對 Nat 來說也是如此——如今 Connect 與本地網路的劃分究竟在哪裡?隨著你不斷添加、積累,它會演變成什麼樣子呢?這種情況會如何改變?如果有變化的話?

  • Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

    Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Thanks, Mike. I think the mix actually stays pretty similar. We're going to be more -- create more utility for local customers with different alternatives. But I think the way we manage Dallas, as it goes to 1,000 departures eventually is the cornerstone of our network. And you hit the nail on the head in asking the question.

    謝謝你,麥克。我認為配方實際上基本上保持不變。我們將做得更多—透過不同的選擇,為本地客戶創造更多便利。但我認為,隨著達拉斯的航班量最終達到 1000 架次,我們對達拉斯的管理方式是我們航線網絡的基石。你問的問題真是說到重點了。

  • I look at it as trying to maximize revenue for American across our entire system. And having an operationally reliable DFW, the engine behind everything we have in the domestic US, it really becomes a no-brainer. So we're really excited about the potential and the enhanced utility for local DFW customers.

    我認為這是要盡可能提高美國航空在整個系統中的收入。擁有一個運作可靠的達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場(DFW),作為我們在美國國內一切業務的引擎,這真的就成了理所當然的事情。因此,我們對這項技術的潛在價值以及它能為達拉斯-沃斯堡地區本地用戶帶來的便利性提升感到非常興奮。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Scott Group, Wolfe Research.

    Scott Group,Wolfe Research。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • So can you just help us think about overall capacity growth for the year? And then, I guess, with what I think you'll say is something north of GDP, like what's the confidence in sustaining strong RASM throughout the year with more elevated capacity? And I don't know, maybe just help us think about like how much the credit card -- the new credit card helps on RASM this year.

    那麼,您能否幫我們分析一下今年的整體產能成長率?然後,我想,對於高於 GDP 的指標,例如在產能進一步提升的情況下,全年保持強勁的 RASM 的信心有多大?我不知道,也許可以幫助我們思考一下,這張新信用卡今年對 RASM 的幫助有多大。

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Scott, yes, for capacity for the year, we didn't give a guide to, but I would expect for the first quarter, as we said, it's going to be up in the 3% to 5% range. Ideally, we would have been a little higher than that. I would expect a similar level of capacity growth right through the summer peak.

    斯科特,是的,對於全年的產能,我們沒有給出指導,但我預計第一季度,正如我們所說,產能將增長 3% 到 5%。理想情況下,我們的成績應該比這更高。我預計整個夏季高峰期產能成長水準將與此類似。

  • And then as we always do, coming out of that summer peak, we'll adjust capacity depend on the competitive and demand environment that we're seeing. But if it holds and kind of our expectations hold, we'll probably have capacity for the full year around mid-single digits.

    然後,就像我們一貫的做法一樣,在夏季高峰期過後,我們將根據我們所看到的競爭和需求環境調整產能。但如果情況持續下去,而且我們的預期也基本實現,那麼我們全年的產能可能在個位數中段左右。

  • We like the opportunities we have. We've talked a lot about growth opportunities in Philadelphia, Miami, Phoenix, along with rounding out our schedules in Chicago. And we do think, even with this level of growth, we'll have a supportive environment for positive unit revenue throughout the year.

    我們喜歡我們所擁有的機會。我們已經多次討論過在費城、邁阿密、鳳凰城的發展機會,以及在芝加哥完善我們的日程安排。我們認為,即使成長幅度不大,全年仍將有有利於單位收入成長的環境。

  • Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

    Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

  • Scott, I'll take -- just one quick note on the loyalty side, too, a part of your question. As the Advantage program continues to grow, enrollments are growing extremely rapidly for us. And advantage members of the lion's share of our premium revenue, the lion's share of our flown revenue. And as we continue to grow that program, it just then generates loyalty to American, and that's going to translate into higher unit revenue as well.

    Scott,關於你問題的一部分,我也想補充一點關於忠誠度的問題。隨著 Advantage 計劃的不斷發展,我們的學員人數也成長得非常迅速。而且,我們的高級會員獲得了我們大部分的保費收入和大部分的飛行收入。隨著我們不斷發展壯大這個項目,它就能培養出美國航空的忠誠度,而這也轉化為更高的單位收入。

  • Scott Group - Analyst

    Scott Group - Analyst

  • Just a quick follow-up. So like when you guys announced the new card and gave us like a multiyear like earnings contribution from that, is there a reason to think '26 is -- is that a linear growth in '26? Or is there any front-end motive in any way?

    再補充一點。所以,就像你們宣布推出新卡並向我們展示了未來多年的收益貢獻一樣,有什麼理由認為 2026 年的收益會呈線性增長嗎?或者說,是否存在任何前端方面的動機?

  • Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

    Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

  • No, I'd say it's pretty linear. It's never going to be perfectly linear, both in terms of remuneration that we get. Sometimes it will come in a little chunky depending on different bonuses that might be there and also just in the impact of the P&L. It won't be perfectly linear, but it will be fairly linear over the next five years.

    不,我覺得它相當線性。無論從收入或報酬的角度來看,這永遠不會是完全線性的。有時候,根據不同的獎金狀況以及對損益表的影響,最終到帳金額可能會比較大。雖然不會完全呈線性增長,但在未來五年內將基本呈線性增長。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Christopher Stathoulopoulos, Susquehanna Financial Group.

    克里斯托弗·斯塔索洛普洛斯,薩斯奎哈納金融集團。

  • Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

    Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

  • On ORD, I heard a target of -- I think it was 500 flights. So where does that fit? And assuming that -- I'm not sure if that's for this year or next, but how should we think about that within the context of the midpoint of the guide? And then at 500, does that put you back at profitability for that hub?

    在 ORD 機場,我聽說目標是——我想是 500 個航班。那麼,它又該如何定位呢?假設——我不確定這是指今年還是明年,但我們應該如何在指南的中點背景下考慮這一點?那麼,當數量達到 500 時,這個樞紐就能恢復獲利了嗎?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • I'll just comment again. We anticipate getting back between 500- and 550 flights that will happen this summer. And we are on track in meeting the goals that we had established for ourselves. And again, Chicago is strategically important. And at the end of the day, it's going to help system -- overall system profitability, but we fully expect that Chicago will return to its position as one of our mid-level profitability hubs.

    我再補充一點。我們預計今年夏天將恢復 500 至 550 個航班。我們正按計劃朝著既定目標邁進。再次強調,芝加哥具有重要的戰略意義。最終,這將有助於整個系統的盈利能力,但我們完全相信芝加哥將恢復到我們中等盈利中心之一的地位。

  • Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

    Christopher Stathoulopoulos - Analyst

  • Okay. And then on the $1 billion savings realized, if you could talk about opportunities going forward. I think in the past, you've spoken about technology and -- or AI in benefiting areas such as MRO and procurement. Maybe if you could expand on that in other potential areas?

    好的。然後,關於已實現的 10 億美元節省,您能否談談未來的機會?我認為您過去曾談到過技術和——或者人工智慧在MRO和採購等領域帶來的好處。或許你可以把這個主題拓展到其他潛在領域?

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes. This is something we've been at for over three years now, just really trying to reengineer our business for efficiency and making investments that drive productivity and a better customer experience. I'll say no major change. Obviously, we'll lean into the latest technologies like AI and the opportunities it brings both areas like tech ops and reservations.

    是的。三年來,我們一直在努力改善業務,提高效率,並進行投資以提高生產力,並改善客戶體驗。我認為不會有重大變化。顯然,我們將充分利用人工智慧等最新技術及其為技術營運和預訂等領域帶來的機會。

  • A lot of the work though just continues to be streamlining processes and making regular way technology investments that drive improvements across our labor line, with productivity improvements, that are improvements for our customers.

    不過,我們仍需要繼續簡化流程,並定期進行技術投資,以推動整個勞動力團隊的改進,提高生產力,從而為我們的客戶帶來改善。

  • We also focus heavily on procurement, where we think we build the best procurement team in the world that's driving really significant savings as well as working capital improvements. So this is a continuation of a year's long effort. It's a mindset for the company. It's an area that Robert and I get to meet on with leaders across the company every month. We think we're best in class and we'll continue to focused there.

    我們也非常重視採購,我們認為我們打造了世界上最好的採購團隊,這不僅帶來了顯著的成本節約,也改善了營運資金狀況。這是歷時一年努力的延續。這是公司的一種思考模式。這是羅伯特和我每個月都會與公司各級領導就此領域會面的機會。我們認為我們是同類產品中的佼佼者,我們將繼續專注於此。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Savi Syth, Raymond James.

    薩維·賽斯,雷蒙德·詹姆斯。

  • Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

  • I wonder if you can talk a little bit about operations. Clearly, Fern is just not lie out here, but some of the investments that you're making in DFW, when do you expect to see that? And in Chicago, not necessarily -- there seems to be a lot of flights being added just industry-wide in Chicago. And just any thoughts on kind of how that operation might impact, but really looking at it at a high level, but also wondering if the level of flying in Chicago is a concern?

    我想請您談談營運方面的情況。顯然,Fern 並非只是在撒謊,但你在達拉斯沃斯堡地區的一些投資,你預計何時能看到回報?而在芝加哥,情況則不一定如此——芝加哥整個航空業似乎都在增加許多航班。大家對這項行動可能產生的影響有什麼想法嗎?主要是從宏觀層面來看,同時也想知道芝加哥的飛行量是否會令人擔憂?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • So I'll just start with DFW again. We have this facilities project that is going on that's been in the works for some time right now, new Terminal F, which is going to be Americans terminal. New satellites on Terminals A and C. Those are progressing really well. I think that they're going to be really spectacular from a customer experience perspective and enable DFW to get to over 1,000 departures and we're really pleased with that work.

    那我還是再從達拉斯-沃斯堡(DFW)開始吧。我們目前正在進行一項設施建設項目,已經籌備了一段時間,新的F航站樓將是美國航空公司的航站樓。A航廈和C航廈的新衛星衛星正在興建中,進展非常順利。我認為從客戶體驗的角度來看,它們將會非常出色,並使達拉斯-沃斯堡國際機場的出發航班量超過 1000 架次,我們對此非常滿意。

  • And regarding Chicago, again, I'll just say that we're flying to the places that our customers want to go and it warrants rounding the schedule back out to between 500- and 550 flights and really look forward to putting forth a great product this summer. We've done it before. We'll do it again. And that's what I have to say on that front. I can't really speak to what others are doing.

    至於芝加哥,我只想說,我們正在飛往客戶想去的地方,這足以將航班時刻表恢復到 500 到 550 個航班之間,我們非常期待今年夏天推出優質的產品。我們以前就這麼做過。我們會再做一次。這就是我在這方面要說的。我無法評論其他人正在做的事情。

  • Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

    Savanthi Syth - Equity Analyst

  • I guess, Robert, my question is coming from operations. I have no doubt that there's appetite in Chicago for American to kind of come back there in a big way. I'm just kind of curious about, one, like the changes you're making at DFW, how you expect that to improve operations throughout the year, like when we will see the biggest benefit?

    羅伯特,我想問的是關於營運方面的問題。我毫不懷疑芝加哥人渴望美式餐飲能夠大規模地回歸。我有點好奇,例如你們在達拉斯-沃斯堡機場做出的改變,你們預計這些改變將如何改善全年的運營,我們什麼時候才能看到最大的好處?

  • And two, is kind of the level of operations that are going to happen in Chicago this summer, not just American if there's a concern in terms of if the airport can handle that?

    第二,今年夏天芝加哥的營運規模,不只是美國航空,是否會影響機場的營運能力,這點值得關注?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, Savi, in terms of what we're doing in DFW, it's not only the facilities work, but it's technology we're bringing to bear. So whether that's making sure that we have the appropriate solutions to disruptions during the summer. With Smart Gating and Connect Assist, we have new block time targets, which means that we've assessed how we're building things at all into this 13 bank schedule.

    薩維,就我們在達拉斯-沃斯堡地區所做的工作而言,不僅是設施建設,還有我們正在應用的技術。因此,無論是確保我們有合適的解決方案來應對夏季期間的各種幹擾,還是其他方面。借助智慧門禁和連接輔助,我們有了新的時間段目標,這意味著我們已經評估了我們如何將所有內容融入這 13 家銀行的日程安排中。

  • We really think that, that's going to show performance throughout the entire year, but I would expect a notable benefit during the summer. And for Chicago, look, this is a lot of growth for us, again, but it's only getting back to where we were.

    我們真心認為,這將在全年都展現出良好的表現,但我預計在夏季會有顯著的成效。對於芝加哥來說,這對我們來說是很大的成長,但這只是回到了我們原來的位置。

  • So we're putting a tremendous amount of time and effort to making sure that we're ready and that all of our partners are ready to go as well. So we've got all eyes on it and ready for the growth that we have planned for Chicago this summer.

    因此,我們投入了大量的時間和精力,以確保我們以及我們所有的合作夥伴都做好準備。所以我們都密切關注著它,並為我們計劃今年夏天在芝加哥實現的成長做好準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Atul Maheswari, UBS.

    阿圖爾‧馬赫什瓦里,瑞銀集團。

  • Atul Maheswari - Analyst

    Atul Maheswari - Analyst

  • I also have a question on the full year guidance. It sounds like -- to get to the midpoint of the range, you're not necessarily assuming current booking strengths to persist. A, could you confirm that? And then b, to achieve the high end of the range, would you need the current demand to continue at these levels? Or would that drive even more upside over and above the high end of the range?

    我還有一個關於全年業績指引的問題。聽起來——要達到價格區間的中點,你並不一定假設當前的預訂強勁勢頭會持續下去。A,你能確認一下嗎?其次,為了達到該範圍的高端,是否需要當前的需求繼續保持在這些水準?或者說,這是否會帶來比價格區間高端更高的上漲空間?

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • Yes, I think you're interpreting our comments correctly that we've seen really strong bookings in the first part of the year. If bookings continue at this level, we would probably be a lot closer to the high end of the guide. We haven't built that in for the entire year. In order to come in above the high end, it would probably require some acceleration of what we're seeing right now.

    是的,我認為你對我們的評論理解正確,我們今年上半年的預訂情況確實非常強勁。如果預訂量繼續保持目前的水平,我們可能很快就會接近指南中的高端水平。我們沒有為全年都做好這方面的安排。要達到高於高端水平,可能需要加快我們目前看到的這種發展速度。

  • Atul Maheswari - Analyst

    Atul Maheswari - Analyst

  • Got it. That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, as you look out over the next few years, what do you think is a sustainable long-term margin rate for American either with respect to EBITDA margin or the pretax margin, whatever you want to pick? And relative to where you land in FY26, what are the key drivers that get you to that long-term sustainable margin rate?

    知道了。那很有幫助。那麼,我的後續問題是,展望未來幾年,您認為美國航空可持續的長期利潤率是多少?無論是 EBITDA 利潤率還是稅前利潤率,隨便您選擇哪個指標?相對於您在 2026 財年的業績,哪些關鍵驅動因素能幫助您達到長期可持續的利潤率?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Well, what we're working on is this. We're going to continue to be the most efficient producer of capacity in the business. And I feel great about what we're doing. And Devon highlighted some of the things that we've embarked on with reengineering the business. But our focus right now is delivering on our revenue potential, and that's going to push margins we believe the most.

    我們正在研究的是這個。我們將繼續保持業界最高效的產能生產者地位。我為我們正在做的事情感到非常自豪。德文重點介紹了我們在業務重組過程中著手進行的一些工作。但我們目前的重點是實現營收潛力,我們相信這將最大程度地提高利潤率。

  • So it starts with delivering a customer -- a consistent elevated customer experience. You've heard us talk about a lot of things we're doing, whether it's from a facilities perspective, reconfigurations of our fleet, the new flagship suites and flagship lounges. Everything that we do for our customers is being looked at in a way to enhance that.

    所以,一切都始於為客戶提供—始終如一的優質客戶體驗。您已經聽我們談論過我們正在做的很多事情,無論是從設施角度來看,還是從我們車隊的重新配置、新的旗艦套房和旗艦休息室來看。我們為客戶所做的一切都是為了更好地服務客戶。

  • On top of that, we have a network that is getting back to scale and size. And I feel that where we're flying is where people want to go, and we're going to make sure that we maximize the power of that network and it's powered by the youngest fleet that's out there.

    除此之外,我們的網路也在逐步恢復規模。我覺得我們飛往的地方正是人們想去的地方,我們將確保最大限度地發揮該網絡的效力,而該網絡由目前最年輕的機隊提供支持。

  • You know about the work that we're doing with Citi with the relaunch of our co-branded credit card relationship. Feel great about the advantaged loyalty program and that being the best in the business. And then ultimately, we're going to sell and market our product and make sure that we stay on top of our share and our ability to really drive performance through sales, marketing and revenue management.

    您知道我們正在與花旗銀行合作,重新啟動我們的聯名信用卡合作關係。對我們優厚的會員忠誠度計劃感到非常滿意,它是業內最好的。最終,我們將銷售和推廣我們的產品,確保我們保持市場份額,並透過銷售、行銷和收入管理真正推動業績成長。

  • All that combines to put us in a position where we anticipate margin growth. I think that, that then fuels free cash flow production, a stronger balance sheet and getting really American back on track with where we had hoped we'd be a couple of years back. So that's what I expect and I appreciate the opportunity to expand on.

    所有這些因素加在一起,使我們預期利潤率將有所增長。我認為,這將促進自由現金流的產生,增強資產負債表,並使美國真正回到我們幾年前希望達到的軌道上。這就是我的預期,我很感激有機會詳細闡述這一點。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Duane Pfennigwerth, Evercore ISI.

    杜安‧芬尼格沃斯 (Duane Pfennigwerth),Evercore ISI。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • I just wanted to ask you about your window into government travel. Obviously, there was a fair bit of noise in the fourth quarter, and we have some noise, at least in the last week from Mother Nature. But are you seeing signs of stabilization or growth in the government segment as we begin to comp really severe DOGE impacts last year?

    我只是想問您對政府公務出行的了解。顯然,第四季度出現了一些噪音,而且至少在過去一周,大自然也為我們帶來了一些噪音。但隨著我們開始彌補去年 DOGE 帶來的嚴重影響,您是否看到政府部門出現穩定或成長的跡象?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Okay. I'll handle that. Look, what I can tell you is that we -- our government traffic in the fourth quarter was down about 50% and that's largely driven by the government shutdown. As we move into the first quarter, it's just too soon to see how that's going to come back. But we've built into our forecast, assumption that we'll have to be out there and working hard to win back government business.

    好的。我會處理這件事。我可以告訴你的是,我們第四季的政府業務量下降了約 50%,這主要是由於政府停擺造成的。進入第一季度,現在判斷情況會如何發展還為時過早。但我們在預測中已經考慮到,我們必須走出去,努力爭取重新贏得政府業務。

  • But over time, I would anticipate that the government traffic returns. Washington is always going to be really important. And I do believe that our Washington National hub does something for customers that no other airport can really do. And when the government travel comes back, we're going to be best positioned to take advantage of it. So I look over the long run, is that being upside to us.

    但隨著時間的推移,我預期政府用車流量會恢復。華盛頓永遠都非常重要。而且我確實認為,我們的華盛頓國家機場樞紐能為旅客提供其他機場無法真正做到的事。當政府公務出行恢復時,我們將處於最佳位置,並能夠充分利用這一機會。所以從長遠來看,這對我們來說是有利的。

  • Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

    Duane Pfennigwerth - Analyst

  • And then just on premium, I don't know if there's any way to frame it on a relative basis, premium as a percent of total seats where you are today versus your network peers and as you look at like the growth you're lining up over the next few years, where does that go to?

    然後,就高級會員而言,我不知道是否有辦法從相對角度來衡量,例如高級會員佔總席位的百分比,你現在與你的同行相比如何,以及當你展望未來幾年的增長時,這些增長將走向何方?

  • Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

    Nathaniel Pieper - Chief Commercial Officer

  • I think -- Duane, it's Nat. I think from a network peer perspective, not deep into that, I can speak though on the American side, not only taking delivery of aircraft but mod programs that we've got going on with our A319s, our A320s, 100-plus airplanes in those buckets and then longer-term 777 modifications, both the 200 and the 300 fleet. So clearly enhancing the premium product and the offering that we have out there, premium economy continues to be very successful for us, too.

    我想——杜安,是納特。我認為從網路同行的角度來看(雖然我對此了解不深),我可以從美國方面談談,不僅是接收飛機,還有我們正在進行的A319、A320的改裝項目,這些機型有100多架,以及更長期的777改裝項目,包括200和300機隊。因此,很明顯,我們不斷提升高端產品和現有服務,高端經濟艙也繼續為我們帶來巨大的成功。

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Duane, in terms of just real numbers, 30% growth as we take a look in premium seating out towards the end of the decade and 50% growth from a lie-flat international perspective as we move out towards the end of the decade. And in terms of overall premium revenues, I don't think we're a lot different than our competitors. We see about 50% of our revenue being driven by premium offerings. And that's something that, again, we've got a product lineup and a strategy that is really directed at meeting those customers' needs.

    杜安,就實際數字而言,如果我們展望十年末期,高端座椅市場將成長 30%,而從國際平躺座椅市場來看,十年末期市場將成長 50%。就整體保費收入而言,我認為我們與競爭對手並沒有太大區別。我們發現,約 50% 的收入來自高端產品和服務。而且,我們也有相應的產品線和策略,真正旨在滿足這些客戶的需求。

  • Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

    Devon May - Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President

  • And the other piece to it as well is just a recovery on the sales and distribution side, which drives premium revenue as well, getting back to our indirect share, which we mentioned in the script. And then just having a more reliable better customer experience, more reliable operation suited to that specific segment, we expect to continue to participate actively and grow that share.

    另一方面,銷售和分銷方面的復甦也會帶動保費收入的成長,從而恢復到我們在腳本中提到的間接份額。然後,憑藉更可靠、更好的客戶體驗,以及更適合該特定細分市場的可靠運營,我們期望繼續積極參與並擴大市場份額。

  • Editor

    Editor

  • This concludes the analyst portion of this call.

    本次電話會議的分析師部分到此結束。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Q&A portion of the call. I would now like to turn the conference back to Robert Isom for closing remarks. Sir?

    女士們、先生們,本次電話會議的問答環節到此結束。現在我謹將會議交還給羅伯特·伊索姆,請他作閉幕致詞。先生?

  • Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

    Robert Isom - Chief Executive Officer

  • Thanks, Latif. And I'd just like to say thanks for dialing in. We know who we are. We're a premium global airline. We're out there every day. Even in these ridiculous weather conditions, caring for people on life's journey. We have a focused plan this coming year to deliver on our revenue potential. And it starts with making sure we have a fantastic customer experience.

    謝謝你,拉蒂夫。我只想說謝謝,謝謝你們撥入電話。我們知道自己是誰。我們是一家全球領先的航空公司。我們每天都在那裡。即使在如此惡劣的天氣條件下,也要關心人們的人生旅程。我們制定了明年重點計劃,以實現我們的營收潛力。而這一切首先要從確保我們擁有絕佳的客戶體驗開始。

  • We're going to maximize the power of our network and just love the areas that we're going to be growing this year. We have a loyalty proposition that's second to none, and relationship with Citi is really going to kick start value production this year.

    我們將最大限度地發揮我們網路的力量,並且非常喜歡我們今年將要發展的領域。我們擁有首屈一指的客戶忠誠度方案,與花旗銀行的合作關係將真正推動今年價值的創造。

  • And we're going to keep up the momentum in terms of selling our product effectively, making sure that we regain and hold our share with our most all of our customers. And at the end of the day, we have a fantastic team. We do a great job of producing an efficient level of capacity and making sure that we're taking care of our customers. So I appreciate the interest and look forward to delivering for our customers and our shareholders.

    我們將繼續保持銷售產品的良好勢頭,確保重新奪回並保持我們在大多數客戶中的市場份額。歸根究底,我們擁有一支非常棒的團隊。我們在提高產能和確保客戶服務方面做得非常出色。感謝大家的關注,我期待為我們的客戶和股東創造價值。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

    今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。